Global cooling ahead: My prediction for 2016 and beyond

New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.

Fig 1. Global temperature series from the two satellite datasets. The big El nino events in 1998 and 2010 were both followed by downturns. The 2015 El Nino will also be followed by a downturn in temperature.

Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that  we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.

End of an era where Britain can stand proud

 

(c) Ian Capper under CC

World’s Last Magnox Nuclear Reactor Shuts Down for Final Time

12/30/2015 | Aaron Larson

The Wylfa Nuclear Power Station—the last operating Magnox reactor in the world—came offline permanently on Dec. 30.

Located in Anglesey, an island off the northwest coast of Wales in the UK, the plant entered service in 1971. Originally constructed with two 490-MW units, only Reactor 1 has been operating since 2012.

The UK pioneered the Magnox design back in the 1950s. Its name comes from the magnesium-aluminum alloy used to clad the fuel rods. The reactors were pressurized, CO2-cooled, graphite-moderated units fueled with natural uranium. The design could also be used to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. The first of 11 eventual plants was the 190-MW Calder Hall facility in Cumbria, which opened in 1956. The Wylfa site was the largest of the Magnox plants.

— http://www.powermag.com/worlds-last-magnox-nuclear-reactor-shuts-down-for-final-time/

Met Office station data release

I am making available all the data collected from Met Office Datapoint for UK land stations.

Example of data processed to show deviations.

This is hourly from 22nd July 2014 through 28th 31st Dec 2015, missing, etc. excepted. The data has been processed into time series with missing data filled with not available marks and also the verbatim datapoint XML as received.

A Talkshop page has been added, can get to it via top menu Portal, direct link here.

This ought to be a gold mine for those able to work on data. Millions of datapoints. The Met Office do not archive this immediate data for public access so whilst there are defects, you’ll have trouble finding this elsewhere.

Why Phi? – Jupiter and the Full Moon Cycle

Jupiter and the Moon – not to scale of course
[image credit: IBNLive]

A very good Phi-related correlation can easily be found between the period of Jupiter’s orbit and the length of the full moon cycle, as we’ll describe in a moment.

First, what exactly is the full moon cycle?
One of several definitions given by Wikipedia says:
‘the full moon cycle is the period that it takes the Sun to return to the perigee of the Moon’s orbit (as seen from the Earth). So it is a kind of “perigee year”.’

Dawlish storm damage 2014, what happened?

This article was researched and largely written early 2014 shortly after the Dawlish railway foreshore embankment was damaged during a storm. I was waiting for reports on what really went wrong, this never happened, so here we are. Added some recent material. Make of it what you will.

The usual moaning minnie’s are at it again on their man-caused-global- warming.

My best guess is local government allowed new building at what was already a weak point, from scour and inadequate maintenance. The messenger, weather, spoke. Response, scapegoat every which way.

Paul Homewood has a new article
“Dawlish Rail Study Ignores The Facts
December 22, 2015″

I have done the work and written on the sea level rise claims, agree with Paul, not going into this now. (try here and links are from there to mygardenpond and the Talkshop)

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Dawlish is on the southern coast of far south west England where it is sheltered from direct Atlantic storms.

http://www.openstreetmap.org/?mlat=50.6059&mlon=-3.4991#map=9/50.6059/-3.4991&layers=T

 

A railway line built during the 19th century by Brunel [ref 1] routes along the waterfront connecting Cornwall by rail with the rest of the country. This is a known spectacular journey but also with a history of storm damage.

Night of 3rd February 2014 (I think) there was extensive major damage to the railway track, Exmouth railway station and other seafronts.

The ground is soft, red sandstone so undermining by the sea is a constant problem. If water under pressure gets into the structure of a seawall major damage is almost immediate. This is explosive, hydraulic, water is forced in under pressure, then the pressure falls to atmospheric sea-side.

Hidden flooding Ireland

Lead to water, this article is complementary to Roger’s, widening the context to show there is little unique

On watching Irish matters I see things. The fuss over the north of England flooding etc. is showing the parochial nature of the media, there is just as much trouble in the Irish republic. Official UK maps tend to blank this out.

The Irish Times is in full flood here. Bit of a problem, the dates and the historic incompetence of Westminster government. We administered Ireland.

Badly constructed
He blamed some of the flooding on a weir at Killaloe “erected in 1845” which, he said, was badly constructed and “throws back water for 25 miles”.

He claimed the weir’s “height exceeds that authorised by Act of Parliament”; that it “has no sluices”; and had “insufficient waterway” for the access and escape of water.

Trench said: “The complaint is not that this weir mound was erected, but that it was the only part of the work that was done, and that those parts were left undone that were intended to remedy the obstruction which it caused.”

In an echo of comments heard this week from Ministers regarding delays to flood relief works due to planning objections, Trench noted that some of the remedial works and drainage schemes on the Shannon implemented by the authorities during the 1830s and 1840s had not been carried out properly because of “indifference and objections”.

Trench was one of many Irish landowners who lobbied the [British] government on the subject during the 19th century. Flooding on the Shannon was the subject of frequent debates in the House of Commons and House of Lords in London and various remedial works and drainage schemes were funded.
Cultivation precarious
In 1868 a report by a House of Commons “select committee on drainage and navigation of river Shannon” stated that “the lands along the banks of the Shannon for a distance of 150 miles have been exposed to floods, which render cultivation precarious, impede industry, and by the saturation of many thousands of acres affect the climate of the district through which it flows”.

The MPs noted that “for many years continual remonstrances had been made to successive governments to induce them to take into consideration this state of things, and to provide a remedy”.

However, the select committee concluded that some of the money spent on the remedial works and drainage schemes had been misappropriated, and that the board of works had altered some of the plans without seeking authorisation.
— http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/floods/victorian-images-of-shannon-flooding-come-to-light-1.2462106

There is much more on The Irish Times, I’ll give the link in a moment.

What the authorities won’t tell you about the floods

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Cameron chairs the flooding committee meeting tomorrow. He needs to read Paul Homewoods blog so he knows we’re onto him and his EU chums crazy schemes.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

Guest Post by Philip Walling

Author of Counting Sheep, Philip Walling

This article was originally published in the Newcastle Journal earlier this month:

Amid all the devastation and recrimination over the floods in Cumbria hardly anybody mentions one factor that may not be the sole cause, but certainly hasn’t helped, and that is the almost complete cessation of dredging of our rivers since we were required to accept the European Water Framework Directive (EWF) into UK law in 2000.
Yet until then, for all of recorded history, it almost went without saying that a watercourse needed to be big enough to take any water that flowed into it, otherwise it would overflow and inundate the surrounding land and houses. Every civilisation has known that, except apparently ours. It is just common sense. City authorities and, before them, manors and towns and villages, organised themselves to make sure their watercourses were…

View original post 1,084 more words

New earthquake prediction method cites my PRP paper

It’s gratifying to see that our work is being recognised and used internationally for practical purposes. This paper modifies an existing earthquake prediction technique using our fibonacci-planetary-solar theory to obtain more accurate results. This is a poke in the eye for Martin Rasmussen, the chief of Copernicus (the innovative science unpublishers) with the pro-warmist bias, who shut down the PRP journal because we contradicted the IPCC claim of an accelerating warming of the Earth’s climate in the conclusions paper of our special issue. Real scientists use good ideas regardless of whether they regard other aspects of the papers they come from as being ‘politically incorrect’.

Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction
A. C. Boucouvalas ; M. Gkasios ; N. T. Tselikas ; G. Drakatos

Proc. SPIE 9535, Third International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2015), 95351A (June 19, 2015); doi:10.1117/12.2192683

Abstract
The FDL (Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas) method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake.

Flooding of biblical proportions in Lancashire

Merry Christmas one and all

Seasons greetings and happy holidays to everyone!
This is the Talkshop Christmas open thread, for whatever you’d like to discuss.

Image credit Eddie Wong. GPL

Study finds Medieval Warm Period evidence in Argentina

Scene on the pampas in Argentina
[image credit: globalgeopolitics.net]

This CO2Science report won’t be to the liking of those who claim the MWP was confined to parts of the northern hemisphere.

Vilanova et al. (2015) developed a multi-proxy millennial environmental record from sediment cores extracted from Laguna Nassau, a shallow lake that apparently developed within a blowout depression in the semi-arid sandy lowlands of the Western Pampas of Argentina.

And as they go on to report, “this multi-proxy stacked record reveals the evolution of an incipient water body subjected to warm and dry conditions from ~900 to 770 cal yr BP, an interval that is coeval with the Medieval Climatic Anomaly,” which is also more commonly known as the Medieval Warm Period or MWP.

U.S. watchdog group sues NOAA over warming pause research secrecy

NOAA graphic

The GWPF reports: The conservative watchdog group Judicial Watch announced Tuesday that it is suing the Obama administration to obtain the same internal communications of federal scientists sought by a House committee in a dispute over global warming research.

The group said in a news release that it filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Washington on Dec. 2 against the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, seeking the agency’s “methodology for collecting and interpreting data used in climate models.”

Space: the final scrapyard?

Space debris [credit: NASA]

So far there are no scrap metal collectors for space junk, as this Science/AAAS report illustrates.

Humans are messy, and not just here on Earth. Now, you can see all the junk we’ve launched into space for yourself with a data-driven animation created for the United Kingdom’s Royal Society by Stuart Grey, an astronomer at University College London.

It all begins in 1957 when the Soviet Union launches Sputnik, a 58.5-centimeter-wide ball emitting radio pulses. A piece of the rocket that took it into orbit was the very first piece of space junk. The United States launched its own satellite, Explorer 1, the next year.

Why Phi? – an orbital parameters test

Earth’s orbit [credit: NASA]

We’ll assume the diagram is self-explanatory but if not, this should help (see opening paragraphs).

We’re looking at Aphelion minus Perihelion (A – P) distances of the giant planets.
Figures are given in units of a million kms. (lowest value first), using Jupiter as a baseline.

US power grid vulnerable to foreign hacks

Not-so-smart meter? [image credit: heartland.org]

A top US official admits: “we are not where we need to be” on cybersecurity in the power generation sector, as phys.org reports. An investigation also says smart meters and remotely-sited renewables are giving hackers new chances to cause trouble.

Security researcher Brian Wallace was on the trail of hackers who had snatched a California university’s housing files when he stumbled into a larger nightmare: Cyberattackers had opened a pathway into the networks running the United States power grid.

Digital clues pointed to Iranian hackers. And Wallace found that they had already taken passwords, as well as engineering drawings of dozens of power plants, at least one with the title “Mission Critical.”

NASA’s flying observatory watches Earth’s clouds

DSCOVR observatory [image credit: NASA]

Solid data on global cloud cover seems hard to come by, but NASA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) could be changing that. SpaceRef reports.

From a dusty atmosphere stretching across the Atlantic Ocean to daily views of clouds at sunrise, a new NASA camera keeping a steady eye on the sunlit side of Earth is yielding new insights about our changing planet.

With NASA’s Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), affixed to NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) about one million miles from Earth, scientists are getting a new view of our planet’s clouds, land surfaces, aerosols and more.

Paul K: mini-paradox becomes a major paradox

Going through one of the old PRP shutdown threads I spotted a comment from regular A C Osborn I missed in all the hubbub. It linked to this thread on Bishop Hill, and I thought I’d repost it here for some consideration, since it’s right in our ~60yr oscillation in LOD ballpark. His grace’s intro follows:

Reader Paul K (a regular writer at Lucia’s) left this fascinating comment on the thread about the England trade winds paper. As BH regulars know, I don’t spend a lot of time on alternative theories of climate change, but I felt this was worthy of an airing.

As Nic correctly points out, from the observed data, the total global ocean heat flux shows a peak around 2001-2005 depending on which dataset one takes. TOA radiative measurements show a peak in net radiative incoming flux somewhere around 1997-2000, driven largely by SW changes in net albedo. Modern MSL data from satellite altimetry (or indeed from tide gauge data) shows a peak in its derivative function around 2001-2003, which should also be a proxy for net heat flux going into the ocean. (Using gravimetric data from GRACE, we can rule out the possibility that the peak in MSL derivative was caused by mass addition – it is a peak clearly driven by thermosteric expansion. There is a useful presentation here by Nerem.

So there is a consistent story from three data sources which says that the net incoming flux hit a peak and has since been decreasing overall for about a decade. This is not compatible with increasing forcing from GHGs and flat or declining tropospheric temperature – a mini paradox, if you will.

Cruz Climate Hearing Puts Data over Dogma

A Senate hearing

This Heartlander Magazine report is worth a look just for its tongue-in-cheek graphic called ‘The Scientific Method – Then And Now‘.

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), chairman of the Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, convened a hearing on December 8 titled “Data or Dogma? Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate.”

A number of noted scientists gave presentations at the hearing and I thought I’d summarize a few of their remarks [see link below].

Monster planet is ‘dancing with the stars’

Eccentric orbit example: Pluto [credit: NASA]

Surprisingly intricate interactions are going on ‘behind the scenes’ in some, if not all, planetary systems – including our own of course.

A team of scientists has discovered a highly unusual planetary system comprised of a sun-like star, a dwarf star, and an enormous planet sandwiched in between, reports ScienceDaily.

The planet, first discovered in 2011 orbiting a star called HD 7449, is about eight times the mass of Jupiter and has one of the most eccentric orbits ever found.

NASA finds boundary between Earth’s ionosphere and space is shrinking

Communication and Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) [credit: NASA]

NASA instrumentation shows ‘the quietest solar minimum since the space age began’, as phys.org reports.

Observations made by NASA instruments onboard an Air Force satellite have shown that the boundary between the Earth’s upper atmosphere and space has moved to extraordinarily low altitudes.

These observations were made by the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) instrument suite, which was launched aboard the U.S. Air Force’s Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite on April 16, 2008.