Research quantifies ‘gap’ in CO2 removal – a climate target with no viable plans?

Having been told by the UN-IPCC that nature’s own carbon cycle isn’t up to the job any more, the manufactured problem for climate-obsessed governments seems to be the lack of any ‘carbon removal’ method that is (a) affordable and (b) effective, in terms of the scale of the supposed need. Such is the strange world of climate policy today.
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New research involving the University of East Anglia (UEA) suggests that countries’ current plans to remove CO2 from the atmosphere will not be enough to comply with the 1.5ºC warming limit set out under the Paris Agreement, says Phys.org.

Since 2010, the United Nations environmental organization UNEP has taken an annual measurement of the emissions gap—the difference between countries’ climate protection pledges and what is necessary to limit global heating to 1.5ºC, or at least below 2ºC [Talkshop comment – according to unproven IPCC climate theories].

The UNEP Emissions Gap Reports are clear: climate policy needs more ambition. This new study now explicitly applies this analytical concept to carbon dioxide removal (CDR)—the removal of the most important greenhouse gas, CO2, from the atmosphere.

New climate study: Size matters to sensitive clouds

Henrik Svensmark’s research group has been busy again. This article says clouds are ‘the largest source of uncertainty in predicting future climate change’. Climate models may need another revision.
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Cloud cover, one of the biggest regulators of Earth’s climate, is easier to affect than previously thought, says Eurekalert.

A new analysis of cloud measurements from outside the coast of California, combined with global satellite measurements, reveals that even aerosol particles as small as 25-30 nanometers may contribute to cloud formation.

Hence, the climate impact of small aerosols may be underestimated.

Clouds are among the least understood entities in the climate system and the largest source of uncertainty in predicting future climate change.

Data Refutes Media’s ‘Attribution’ Con That Climate Change Boosted Dubai’s Rainfall

Time to put the great(?) climate attribution con game to bed permanently. By assuming what it’s trying to prove it becomes seriously unconvincing. Talk of ‘fingerprints of climate change’ is more like waffle than science.
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A few media outlets, including CNN and BBC, have run recent articles talking about flooding in Dubai, claiming that climate change made the storms worse. This is false, says Climate Realism (via Climate Change Dispatch).

There is no evidence that climate change made the rain more extreme, instead, evidence indicates that El Niño and even cloud-seeding may have contributed.

Both the BBC’s article, “Deadly Dubai floods made worse by climate change,” and the one posted by CNN, “Scientists find the fingerprints of climate change on Dubai’s deadly floods,” reference a study done by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, which claimed that climate change made the rain events 10 to 40 percent more intense than if global warming was not occurring.

Drought study raises tricky questions for UN’s climate loss and damage fund

What defines a ‘climate victim’? The impossible conundrum for the UN, facing claims for any climate-related disaster, is: would/could it have happened (to the same magnitude) anyway, for example due to natural factors or mistakes of some kind, regardless of unproven theories about possible human causes behind weather events? Eligibility for compensation depends on the answer, but funds obviously aren’t unlimited and nobody will readily accept a refusal.
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Since January, swathes of southern Africa have been suffering from a severe drought, which has destroyed crops, spread disease and caused mass hunger.

But its causes have raised tough questions for the new UN fund for climate change losses, says Climate Home News.

Christopher Dabu, a priest in Lusitu parish in southern Zambia, one of the affected regions, said that because of the drought, his parishioners “have nothing”- including their staple food.

“Almost every day, there’s somebody who comes here to knock on this gate asking for mielie meal, [saying] ‘Father, I am dying of hunger’,” Dabu told Climate Home outside his church last month.

The government and some humanitarian agencies were quick to blame the lack of rain on climate change.

Swiss climate policy – a case of failing to do the impossible?

Phrases like ‘action against climate change’ and ‘climate protection’ are uttered without any clear idea of what, if anything, they might mean. Natural variation at all timescales is an ongoing process, but difficult to measure or predict with any accuracy. Warming has followed the lengthy Little Ice Age, but now some countries – even those with glaciers and ‘snow-capped’ peaks like Switzerland – are being saddled with a legal obligation to attempt to put the brakes on that, by swallowing the argument that a trace gas in the atmosphere is the main source of a supposedly solvable problem of slightly rising temperatures.
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Switzerland, known for pristine countryside and snow-capped [sic] peaks, is facing scrutiny of its environmental policies after becoming the first country faulted by an international court for failing to do enough against climate change, says Phys.org.

The European Court of Human Rights’s ruling last week highlighted a number of failings in Swiss policies, but experts stressed that the wealthy Alpine country was not necessarily doing much worse than its peers.

“The judgment made it really clear that there are critical gaps in the Swiss domestic regulatory framework,” said Tiffanie Chan, a policy analyst at the London School of Economics and Political Science specializing in climate change laws.

“But it’s definitely not a Switzerland-only case,” she told AFP.

Dundee blame global warming for Rangers pitch call-off

The UN’s climate change mind virus is having damaging effects on a variety of people. Weather conditions can sometimes be a problem for sports venues, but inventing spurious excuses only leads to ridicule. This may be a minor story but indicative of a wider malaise in some people’s thinking, or lack of thinking perhaps.
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Dundee have just been embarrassed by an amateur Tayside club after their call off with Rangers, says Rangers News.

The Ibrox side are furious after Dens Park failed a second pitch inspection ahead of the visit of Philippe Clement’s treble-chasing bears.
. . .
Tayside Fire Brigade game goes ahead

The Tayside Fire Brigade – who play in the Dundee Saturday Morning Football League Division 1 – will be able to play their game this evening. [Talkshop comment – morning/evening?!]

The club are set to take on St Andrews Amatuers at the Riverside Playing Fields at the University of Dundee.

On the banks of the River Tay, Riverside is only 12 minutes drive from Dens Park and the game will add extra embarrassment to Dundee following the Rangers game being called off.

European court rules human rights violated by ‘climate inaction’

A victory for cloud cuckoo land thinking. The court has in effect granted a disputed hypothesis the status of truth, based on its assumption that ’emissions’ are driving changes in the climate. Once courts can pick sides in scientific debates, where does that lead?
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A group of older Swiss women have won the first ever climate case victory in the European Court of Human Rights, reports BBC News.

The women, mostly in their 70s, said that their age and gender made them particularly vulnerable to the effects of heatwaves linked to climate change.

The court said Switzerland’s efforts to meet its emission reduction targets had been woefully inadequate.

It is the first time the powerful court has ruled on global warming.

Carbon dioxide, methane levels in the atmosphere hit ‘record highs’ last year – but only since 1959!

We’ll ignore any climate-related assertions in this article and try to look at actual information. How much of the variation of the trace gases mentioned would have occurred anyway, regardless of human activities? As the article says: ‘Carbon dioxide and methane levels have been higher in the far ancient past’. The world obviously didn’t self-destruct back then, so maybe a bit of context there for these latest ‘records’. It’s also known that warmer oceans absorb less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – an entirely natural process.
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The 2.8 parts per million increase in carbon dioxide airborne levels from January 2023 to December, wasn’t as high as the jumps were in 2014 and 2015, but they were larger than every other year since 1959, when precise records started, says PBS Online.

Carbon dioxide’s average level for 2023 was 419.3 parts per million, up 50% from pre-industrial times.

Last year’s methane’s jump of 11.1 parts per billion was lower than record annual rises from 2020 to 2022. It averaged 1922.6 parts per billion last year.

Network Rail hopes staff will be ‘amateur meteorologists’

Among the latest excuses for train service disruption are problems caused by ‘heavier rain’ and more ‘extreme weather’, due to the catch-all climate change. Storm frequency is called ‘unprecedented’ but such claims lack substance without detailed historical data.
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Network Rail is aiming to turn hundreds of staff into “amateur meteorologists” as part of plans to deal with the effects of climate change, says BBC News.

It wants to help staff to interpret weather forecasts to make better decisions during storms or heatwaves.

The public rail body said it will spend £2.8bn over the next five years on efforts to cope with extreme weather.

Its boss Andrew Haines said climate change was “the biggest challenge our railway faces”.

Simple equations clarify cloud climate conundrum, say researchers

The paper, Weak anvil cloud area feedback suggested by physical and observational constraints, says in the section headed ‘Implications of uncertainty’: ‘A rigorous assessment of the anvil cloud area feedback was lacking because the confounding factors of cloud overlap and a changing cloud radiative effect on the feedback could not be accounted for.’ However, in the article at EurekAlert we find: ‘New analysis based on simple equations has reduced uncertainty about how clouds will affect future climate change’. A somewhat mixed picture there. The chicken/egg climate/clouds ‘conundrum’ remains.
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Clouds have two main effects on global temperature – cooling the planet by reflecting sunlight, and warming it by acting as insulation for Earth’s radiation.

The impact of clouds is the largest area of uncertainty in global warming predictions.

In the new study, researchers from the University of Exeter and the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in Paris created a model that predicts how changes in the surface area of anvil clouds (storm clouds common in the tropics) will affect global warming.

Climate change ‘could’ affect timekeeping, study says

The BBC wants this to be all about the climate, but the study is also pushing the propaganda boat out a long way by claiming that ‘we’ are the cause. It’s known that the Earth’s rotation isn’t constant. ‘In 2022 the International Bureau of Weights and Measures (BIPM), the organization responsible for global timekeeping, voted to abolish leap seconds by 2035. How this new research could impact such a decision remains to be seen.’ Source – Scientific American, which also has this:
“Despite our perceptions as humans, the Earth is not a perfect timekeeper,” says Harvard University geophysicist Jerry X. Mitrovica, who reviewed the new study and co-wrote a commentary on it for Nature. He says these findings highlight the divide between our lived experience and the technology that surrounds us. “How do we handle that divide?” he says. “Do we continue to address this divide by adding or subtracting seconds from our definition of a day, or do we accept this irregular difference as normal and give up the bother of continuously correcting?” — If it’s normal, the human causation argument looks even weaker.
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Climate change is affecting the speed of the Earth’s rotation and could impact how we keep time, a study says.

Accelerating melt from Greenland and Antarctica is adding extra water to the world’s seas, redistributing mass, reports BBC News.

That is very slightly slowing the Earth’s rotation. But the planet is still spinning faster than it used to.

The effect is that global timekeepers may need to subtract a second from our clocks later than would otherwise have been the case.

“Global warming is already affecting global timekeeping,” says the study, published in the journal Nature.

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) – which is used by most of the world to regulate clocks and time – is calculated by the Earth’s rotation.

But the Earth’s rotation rate is not constant and can therefore have an effect on how long our days and nights are.

As a result, since the 1970s around 27 seconds – known as leap seconds – have been added on to keep our time accurate.

The study finds that a “negative leap second” – subtracting a second from world clocks – would have been needed in 2026 without accelerating polar ice melt.

But now, with ice sheets losing mass five times faster than they were 30 years ago, this change is needed in 2029, the study suggests.

“It’s kind of impressive, even to me, we’ve done something that measurably changes how fast the Earth rotates,” Duncan Agnew, the author of the study, told NBC News. [Talkshop comment – ‘we’?]

Full report here.

Viewers ‘very sad’ after Sky’s climate show gets the chop – but too many non-viewers

Commercial failure, it seems. Never mind, there’s always the weather forecast.
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Viewers have expressed their devastation after BBC presenter Tom Heap revealed his Sky News show had been cancelled, says Metro News.

The Countryfile host, 58, presented the last episode of The Climate Show on Saturday and announced it had been axed after two years on air.

Tom shared the clip of his ‘pithy final line’, prompting an outpouring of disappointment from his X follower who branded the show ‘important’ amid the escalating [Talkshop comment – only in the media?] climate change crisis.

Confused over the show’s end, account @Earth2075 remarked: ‘Why? It seems now is a more important time than ever.’
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Ending the final The Climate Show, Tom said: ‘And that is it for The Climate Show. This is our final outing.’

Full article here.

UN warns against thirsty tech to solve water crisis – ‘carbon’ capture, AI and lithium in the frame

Drought conditions in Northern China

Is lithium more of a problem than a solution? Climate worriers wouldn’t like that as it goes against their visions of a battery-filled future.
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The world needs to better manage its freshwater resources, says AFP (via Phys.org), but thirsty new technologies touted as solutions could lead to “serious problems” if left unchecked, a UN report warned Friday.

Roughly half of the planet’s population is facing grave water shortages, with climate change-linked droughts affecting more than 1.4 billion people between 2002 and 2021, the report for the UN cultural agency UNESCO said.

As of 2022, more than 2 billion people were without access to safely managed drinking water, while 3.5 billion people lacked access to decent toilets, it added.
. . .
The report, titled “Water for prosperity and peace”, called for more water education, data collection and investment to address the crisis.
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It also highlighted the limits of new computer-led solutions.

UN weather agency cranks up the climate alarm as global temperatures rise by a small fraction of a degree

Everything about climate, other than some mythical past optimum, is branded as an actual or potential disaster by carbon dioxide demonisers like the WMO. Try not to yawn.
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GENEVA (AP, via PBS Online.) — The U.N. weather agency is sounding a “red alert” about global warming, citing record-smashing increases last year in greenhouse gases, land and water temperatures and melting of glaciers and sea ice, and is warning that the world’s efforts to reverse the trend have been inadequate.

The World Meteorological Organization said there is a “high probability” that 2024 will be another record-hot year.

The Geneva-based agency, in a “State of the Global Climate” report released Tuesday, ratcheted up concerns that a much-vaunted climate goal is increasingly in jeopardy: That the world can unite to limit planetary warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels. [Talkshop comment – meaning Little Ice Age levels].

Climate protesters in England and Wales lose criminal damage defence

Appeal court says defendants’ ‘beliefs and motivation’ do not constitute lawful excuse for damaging property. They may think their imaginary weather scenarios, supposedly based on climate models and ‘greenhouse effects’, should be taken seriously but the rest of the world has no obligation to do so.
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One of the last defences for climate protesters who commit criminal damage has been in effect removed by the court of appeal, says The Guardian.

The court said the “beliefs and motivation” of a defendant do not constitute lawful excuse for causing damage to a property.

The defence that a person honestly believes the owner of a property would have consented had they known the full circumstances of climate change has been used successfully over the last year by protesters.

We must end the Net Zero delusion before it’s too late – Telegraph

Enough of the pretence, says the paper. It’s only arguing about methods of implementation e.g. targets, but better than nothing. The central plan is a drag on the whole country in the name of a climate theory that can’t be shown to be valid, using climate models that can’t even model the past or present with the necessary accuracy.
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Political obituaries will not be kind to Theresa May, says The Telegraph.

But there is one unwritten law of modern British politics the former prime minister understood: you can be wrong on climate change, provided you are wrong in the right way.

Whisper that net zero by 2050 will have deleterious social and economic costs, and accusations of “denialism” will swiftly follow.

Yet warn that the “house is on fire” and the end time is at hand, and you’ll probably be given a book deal.

An increase in the number of extreme cold days in North China during 2003–2012, research finds

The researchers wrestle with the non-correlation of extreme winter weather events and the monotonic increase in CO2 levels, offering a verdict of ‘probable’ natural variation. They try to support IPCC climate assertions, but the article keeps saying ‘however’. One of the study’s authors says: “This is still a challenging issue that needs further exploration to quantify the relative contributions of natural variability and human activity to regional extreme events.”
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A recent study by researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, presents robust interdecadal changes in the number of extreme cold days in winter over North China during 1989–2021, and the findings have been published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, says EurekAlert.

Specifically, the number of extreme cold days increased around the year 2003 and then decreased around the year 2013, with a value of 8.7 days per year during 1989–2002, 13.5 during 2003–2012, and 6.6 during 2013–2021.

During 2003–2012, the Siberian–Ural High strengthened and the polar jet stream weakened, which favored frequent cold air intrusion into North China, inducing more extreme cold days. In addition, the intensity of extreme cold days in North China showed no significant difference in the three periods.

Two million animals dead as extreme winter weather hits Mongolia

The UN as usual blames ‘climate change’ (no definition available) which is synonymous with global warming to a lot of people. Snowfall in the country is reported as the heaviest since 1975.
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Bayanmunkh Sum: More than two million animals have died in Mongolia so far this winter, a government official said Monday, as the country endures extreme cold and snow, reports Gulf News.

The landlocked country is no stranger to severe weather from December to March, when temperatures plummet as low as minus 50 degrees Celsius (minus 58 Fahrenheit) in some areas.

But this winter has been more severe than usual, with lower than normal temperatures and very heavy snowfall, the United Nations said in a recent report.

As of Monday, 2.1 million head of livestock had died from starvation and exhaustion, Gantulga Batsaikhan of the country’s agriculture ministry said.

Mongolia had 64.7 million such animals, including sheep, goats, horses and cows, at the end of 2023, official statistics show.

The extreme weather is known as “dzud” and typically results in the deaths of huge numbers of livestock.

The United Nations said climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of dzuds.

Mongolia has experienced six dzuds in the past decade, including the winter of 2022-23 when 4.4 million head of livestock perished.

This year’s dzud has been exacerbated by a summer drought that prevented animals from building up enough fatty stores to survive the harsh winter.

‘Praying for warmer weather’
Seventy percent of Mongolia is experiencing “dzud or near dzud” conditions, the UN said.

That compares with 17 percent of the country at the same time in 2023.
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Snowfall this year – the heaviest since 1975 – has compounded herders’ woes, trapping them in colder areas and making them unable to buy food and hay for their animals from the nearby towns.

Full report here.
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Image: Another tough winter for Mongolian livestock [credit: eurasianet.org]

Is a new Interactive Climate Atlas ‘a game changer for policymakers’ – or just a game?

Delving into the technical section (see below), this puzzling statement appeared:
‘One of the main innovations of the dataset is its inclusion of [a named] dataset, which provides regional climate projections covering the land components of the globe by combining two regional climate models and six general circulation models, which were selected to span the widest possible range of uncertainty.’ — Another section is headed ‘Quality assured data’ but surely models with a wide range of uncertainty must include some which are more uncertain, aka inaccurate, than others. What purpose does that serve for policymakers?
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The Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas, launched by the Copernicus Climate Change Service on 20 February, is set to be an important new resource for policymakers looking to formulate effective climate policy and for other users needing to visualise and analyse climate change information, says the European Commission.
. . .
Let’s get technical
So, how does the Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas work? The gridded monthly dataset used for the Atlas integrates information from several climatic observational, reanalysis and projection datasets. The data is harmonised across the different datasets and catalogues to ensure standard common definitions and units for each of the variables.

One of the main innovations of the dataset is its inclusion of the CORDEX-CORE dataset, which provides regional climate projections covering the land components of the globe by combining two regional climate models and six general circulation models, which were selected to span the widest possible range of uncertainty. Due to its global continental coverage and higher resolution, this is a strategic dataset for the C3S Atlas, making it possible to analyse climate change in even higher resolution, such as for megacities around the world, for example.

Full article — Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas: a game changer for policymakers.

When the global climate has the hiccups – ‘repeated rapid increases in temperature’

Promoters of a current ‘climate crisis’ often call modern warming and/or events within it, ‘unprecedented’. However, compared to events like this: “A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life” [explains Prof.], not much is presently going on. Climate variability can happen in different ways, and repeat over long timescales.
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In recent geological history, the so-called Quaternary period, there have been repeated ice ages and warm periods, says Science Daily.

Researchers are able to determine past climate variability from the composition of climate records. In the case of the last glacial period 100,000 years ago, ice cores from Greenland in particular provide researchers with detailed data.

For example, Greenland ice cores show that there were repeated rapid increases in temperature.

“We are talking about increases of 5 to 10 degrees within 30 to 40 years on average in the case of Europe. A Neanderthal would have experienced increases in the average temperature of several degrees over the course of their life,” explains Prof. Dominik Fleitmann, Professor of Quaternary Geology at the University of Basel.

He calls the phenomena “climate hiccups.”

These Dansgaard-Oeschger events are well documented for the last glacial period, but the climate records from Greenland only cover the last 120,000 years.

It was therefore previously unknown whether these Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period 135,000 to 190,000 years ago.

Frederick Held, a PhD candidate in Fleitmann’s research group, was able to show that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period using isotopic measurements on stalagmites.

He is the lead author of the study which was published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

The North Atlantic as the source of change

The stalagmites examined originate from the Sofular Cave in Turkey, which is located in a region that is very sensitive to climate change.

The researchers therefore refer to it as a key region, as it is influenced by the winds of the North Atlantic and the Black Sea is just a few kilometers away.

“We used the isotopic composition in the stalagmites to determine the moisture sources from which they are formed — the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic,” explains Frederick Held.

For the first time, the evaluations carried out on the stalagmites from the Sofular Cave have proven that Dansgaard-Oeschger events also occurred during the penultimate glacial period.

“It was previously unknown whether these relatively brief temperature events actually happened in earlier glacial periods,” states Held.

However, they occurred less frequently in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one: “The temperature peaks are twice as far apart from one another, meaning there were longer cold phases between them.”

These temperature fluctuations originate in the North Atlantic, as the circulation of the ocean is a global conveyor belt for heat and can sometimes be stronger and sometimes weaker.

“For example, the circulation affects the exchange of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean, which, in turn, impacts the balance of heat in the Northern Hemisphere and air flows and rainfall,” explains Held.

He states that weakened circulation also reduces the quantity of CO2 which the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere.

These ocean currents were different in the penultimate glacial period than in the last one, which explains the different intervals between the Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

This shows that not all glacial periods are the same and not all warm periods are the same.
. . .
The geologist also hopes to clarify any outstanding questions by means of additional analyses. “For example, we do not yet know whether the increases in temperature were periodic or stochastic, in other words random.”

Full article here.

Image: Greenland ice core [credit: K. Makinson @ Wikipedia]