Posts Tagged ‘climate change’

[credit: Wikipedia]

[credit: Wikipedia]


More pseudo-religious climate nonsense in Thursday’s Guardian:

Quote: ‘James Inhofe, infamous for tossing a snowball across the Senate floor to demonstrate ‘the greatest hoax ever perpetrated against the American people’, says Pope Francis should ‘stay with his job’ during a pitch to fellow unbelievers

The Guardian report later says: ‘In the world outside, anticipation was building for the pope to deliver his much-awaited encyclical next week, when he is expected to cast climate change as a moral issue.’

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Paris climate conference - get ready for this

Paris climate conference – get ready for this


Scottish Sceptic has an amusing piece about the forthcoming climate charade in Paris, which looks like being as full of hot air as it is empty of credible substance:

There’s a boringly familiar pattern to these climate talks in Paris. The rhetoric is all about making deals, but the reality is that everyone is backpedalling furiously behind the scenes trying the darnest to prevent any serious deal getting made. But what is different this time is that if anything the parties are being far more open in their desire not to come to any deal this time than all the previous clown fests from Jokenhagen onward.

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Snowy Boston 2015

Snowy Boston 2015


Despite the fact that former climate guru James Hansen conceded there had been a temperature standstill in the current century, it’s now claimed by the NOAA that it was all a myth.

A reported pause in global warming—a mystery that has vexed scientists and delighted contrarians—was an illusion based on inadequate data, U.S. government researchers reported Thursday.

The findings by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) researchers that there was no warming “hiatus” over the past 15 years could reshape consensus science on recent climate change. The research undercuts an argument of pundits and politicians who oppose taking action.

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oldbrew:

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Let’s put this up for discussion as the dominant role of WV often gets buried in all the focus on man-made carbon dioxide emissions.

Originally posted on Musings from the Chiefio:

This posting just points to a very well done page that calculates the relative contributions to the greenhouse effect as used by the AGW thesis, by various gasses. In particular, it includes water vapor. The result is a conclusion that human caused CO2 is not relevant to global temperature. Something I have said before, but without the nice graphs and calculations.

It really is all about the water on our water world.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System

Just how much of the “Greenhouse Effect” is caused by human activity?

It is about 0.28%, if water vapor is taken into account– about 5.53%, if not.

This point is so crucial to the debate over global warming that how water vapor is or isn’t factored into an analysis of Earth’s greenhouse gases makes the difference between describing a significant human contribution to the greenhouse effect, or a negligible one.

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One of Greenland's islands [credit: Wikipedia]

One of Greenland’s islands [credit: Wikipedia]

Science Daily reports on recent research by Oregon State University (H/T The Hockeyshtick):
A new study using evidence from a highly detailed ice core from West Antarctica shows a consistent link between abrupt temperature changes on Greenland and Antarctica during the last ice age, giving scientists a clearer picture of the link between climate in the northern and southern hemispheres.

Greenland climate during the last ice age was very unstable, the researchers say, characterized by a number of large, abrupt changes in mean annual temperature that each occurred within several decades. These so-called “Dansgaard-Oeschger events” took place every few thousand years during the last ice age. Temperature changes in Antarctica showed an opposite pattern, with Antarctica cooling when Greenland was warm, and vice versa.

In this study funded by the National Science Foundation and published this week in the journal Nature, the researchers discovered that the abrupt climates changes show up first in Greenland, with the response to the Antarctic climate delayed by about 200 years. The researchers documented 18 abrupt climate events during the past 68,000 years.

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21st century seascape

21st century seascape


The New York Times reports the difficulties likely to face US power generation companies due to the pace of change demanded by the latest government rules and the ever-increasing reliance on part-time power sources scattered all over the place. Does this sound familiar at all?

WASHINGTON — As President Obama prepares to unveil his climate change regulations on coal-fired power plants, the nation’s electric utilities are preparing to transform the system that keeps the lights on in America. But some companies fear that in the process, the lights may go out.

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oldbrew:

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By the time people realise the climate ‘experts’ got it all wrong – again – most of the culprits will have retired, most probably with nice pensions.

Originally posted on Real Science:

Scientists warn that we are about to pass a global warming tipping point.

ScreenHunter_8651 Apr. 17 05.58

While we may not yet have reached the “point of no return”—when no amount of cutbacks on greenhouse gas emissions will save us from potentially catastrophic global warming—climate scientists warn we may be getting awfully close.

Have We Passed the Point of No Return on Climate Change? – Scientific American

This sounds bad, but is actually excellent news. In 1989 they only gave us until the year 2000 to stop global warming, so this is actually quite a nice reprieve.

ScreenHunter_8659 Apr. 17 06.37

Mercury News: Search Results

But it is even better than it seems! Forty years ago this month climatologists told us that unless we let them melt the polar ice caps, global cooling would kill us all.

ScreenHunter_8656 Apr. 17 06.15

denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf

So far, we have a total of 40 years of passing the global cooling/warming tipping point. But the news gets even better. Seventy…

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Dutch Parliament buildings [credit: Wikipedia]

Dutch Parliament buildings [credit: Wikipedia]


Any guesses how this one’s likely to go? The idea that humans can control temperature changes is about as absurd as the idea that they are the main cause of them, as large fluctuations in long-term climate records clearly show. The prospect of maximum temperatures being set by law is risible – but in theory it could happen.

Phys.org reports: Around 900 Dutch citizens on Tuesday took their government to court in a bid to force a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and take action against climate change.

“We want the Dutch government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels,” said Majan Missema, head of rights group Urgenda which is coordinating the legal action.

The group says the case is the first in Europe in which citizens attempt to hold a state responsible for its potentially devastating inaction and the first in the world in which human rights are used as a legal basis to protect citizens against climate change.

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oldbrew:

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The idea that shipping could be releasing heat from the oceans has not been discussed much before.

Originally posted on Science Matters:

In response to my water world post, I was shown the wonderful phrase coined by Dr. Bernaerts:

“Climate is the continuation of oceans by other means”.

In was in 1992 he wrote in Nature appealing to the Rio conference to use the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) to better manage human impacts on the oceans, and thereby address climate concerns. Needless to say, that call fell on deaf ears.

He later elaborates: “Presumably science would serve the general public better when they would listen to Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) who said: “Water is the driver of nature”. Some say that nature rules climate, but water rules the nature on this earth, and the water on earth is so synonymous with the oceans and seas that it can be said: Climate is the continuation of the oceans by other means.”

Dr. Bernaerts is certainly a man worthy of…

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oldbrew:

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Good question. Politics and science is a bad mix.

Originally posted on Real Science:

According to the EPA, US heatwaves are much less common and severe than they used to be.

ScreenHunter_8323 Apr. 04 15.47

High and Low Temperatures | Climate Change | US EPA

According to NOAA, violent tornadoes have declined in the US

tornadotrend

tornadotrend.jpg (872×528)

According to NCDC, droughts have become less frequent and less severe in the US.

ScreenHunter_8325 Apr. 04 15.55

Climate at a Glance: Time Series | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

According to Rutgers University, autumn and winter snow extent is increasing in the US

ScreenHunter_8326 Apr. 04 15.57ScreenHunter_8327 Apr. 04 15.57

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

All of these things have happened as CO2 has increased.

co2_data_mlo

What is it that Barack Obama is hoping to stop by making “electricity prices skyrocket?”

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Shouting match?

Shouting match?


Is the political element of the climate change debate taking over from the science factors? That seems to be the implication of the opinion piece reported on here.

An excellent new meme has entered the climate change debate thanks to David Harsanyi, writing in The Federalist. In his article he articulates why wide acceptance of catastrophic climate change is failing to manifest: because it comes along with an enormous amount of left wing baggage. He summarises it as ‘leftist malware’.

For those not familiar, ‘malware’ is a term used to describe software that is often harmful or intrusive and usually installs itself on your computer without your consent or knowledge. I can’t think of a better metaphor that captures the essential noxiousness of the climate change movement so neatly.

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Going nowhere

Going nowhere


Trend or exception: after two consecutive winters with 90% freeze-overs of the North American Great Lakes, plus this assessment(see below), what are the chances of an ‘Arctic death spiral’ as trumpeted in certain quarters over recent years?

Christopher Booker reports in the Sunday Telegraph (h/t GWPF):
As Britain emerges from an unusually sunny and comparatively mild winter, spare a thought for the people of eastern Canada, still in the grip of their most terrifying winter for decades. Recent pictures online of “Photographic proof that Canada’s east coast is basically the ice planet Hoth” show hapless residents standing below ice cliffs and snow drifts 20ft high. This month the Globe and Mail of Toronto, which endured its coldest February on record, described 2015 for Canada’s Atlantic provinces as having been like living in a “prison of snow and ice”.

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Heads in the clouds?

Heads in the clouds?


If temperatures won’t go up, bring the so-called ‘target’ down. That’s the latest brainwave of climate fear merchants, seemingly oblivious to the lack of any temperature rise this century.

Former Guardian writer Fred Pearce reports:
Is the world’s target of limiting global warming to 2 °C too high, or too low? Does it even make scientific sense? The consensus around the target, which was agreed at climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009, seems to be coming unstuck.

Back in October, US climate analysts David Victor and Charles Kennel called it scientifically meaningless and politically unachievable. We should get used to the idea of something warmer, they said.

Now the target has been denounced as “utterly inadequate”, by Petra Tschakert of Penn State University in University Park, who has been involved in a UN review of the target. She wants a 1.5 °C target instead. Writing in the journal Climate Change Responses, she says this lower limit is necessary if we want sea levels to rise less than a metre, to protect half of all coral reefs, and to still have some ice during Arctic summers.

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My thanks to Astrophysicist Ian Wilson who has left a long comment which I’m reposting here for further discussion, because it contains findings which are as Ian says, amazing (and Ian isn’t a man of hyperbole) . The summary below is further explained in Ian’s new paper which I’ll be putting up a further post on soon: 

Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate Externally Driven and Do They Affect Climate? 

sun-earth-moonwhich is available from this link. This is a stupendous work, containing many exact period matches, rather than being dominated by tenuous statistical derivations like so many other climate papers are. Top quality science on the talkshop. In the meantime, to whet your appetite:

Ian Wilson:
We know that the strongest planetary tidal forces acting on the lunar orbit come from
the planets Venus, Mars and Jupiter, in order of the size of their respective tidal
influences. In addition, we known that, over the last 4.6 billion years, the Moon has
slowly receded from the Earth. During the course of this lunar recession, there have been
times when the orbital periods of Venus, Mars and Jupiter have been in resonance(s) with
the precession rates for the line-of-nodes and line-of-apse of the lunar orbit. When these resonances have occurred, they would have greatly amplified the effects of the planetary tidal forces upon the shape and tilt of lunar orbit. Hence, the observed synchronization between the precession rates of the line-of-nodes and line-of-apse of the lunar orbit and the orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter, could simply be a cumulative fossil record left behind by these historical resonances.
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The Rt. Hon. David Cameron MP
Prime Minister
10 Downing Street
London SW1A 2AA
18th January 2013

AN OPEN LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY POLICIES

Dear Prime Minister,

Like you I read PPE at Oxford and I was lucky enough to be taught Economics by Professor Wilfred Beckerman. He has an interest in the economics of environmentalism, having worked in that field with the World Bank in the 1960s, advised the Labour Party on it and he was a member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution from 1970 to 1973. He wrote an excellent book in 1974 called “In Defence of Economic Growth” which was a rebuttal of the famous Club of Rome 1972 book “The Limits to Growth”.

In 2002, Prof. Beckerman published a book called “A Poverty of Reason: Economic Growth and Sustainable Development”. If you or your advisers on environmental policies haven’t read it before, I thoroughly recommend it as a succinct and massively sensible analysis of many environmentalists’ arguments by a brilliant economist and excellent teacher. He is still going strong at 87; he’s still teaching at UCL, mainly on ethical issues in Economics which he touches on in this book when addressing the mistakes made by many environmentalists about intergenerational ethics, rights and basic economics when considering issues like resource depletion, climate change and the precautionary principle.

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I’m reposting this from Erl Happ’s blog because it deserves wider attention. This is a tour de force, pulling together the different strands of climate knowledge and weather lore Erl has been building up over the years. Hi ideas fit well with those of Marcel Leroux, who worked out that climate change is largely driven by longer term changes in the polar oscillations. Erl believes these are largely due to  ozone changes caused by solar variation which drive the global air flows via consequent surface pressure changes. As Hans Jelbring tells us: Wind controls climate. As Nikolov and Zeller tell us, surface pressure and insolation control temperature. Erl delves into the underlying causes of those polar variations, and connects the levels and latitudes of the atmosphere for us in a novel, logical and interesting way.

Climate changes – oh so naturally
Erl Happ Dec 2011

Outline

Change in the planetary winds (conceptually documented in the diagram above) is the least remarked but most influential dynamic affecting surface temperature.  Wind is a response to pressure differentials. So, a change in the wind is due to a change in these pressure differentials.

The following post describes why pressure differentials and the the planetary winds change over time.

From Wikipedia we have: “the troposphere is the lowest portion of Earth’s atmosphere. It contains approximately 80% of the atmosphere’s mass and 99% of its water vapor and aerosols. The average depth of the troposphere is approximately 17 km (11 mi) in the middle latitudes. It is deeper in the tropical regions, up to 20 km (12 mi), and shallower near the poles, at 7 km (4.3 mi) in summer, and indistinct in winter.”

The notion that there is  a tropopause in high latitudes or that it is somehow ‘indistinct in winter’ represents sloppy thinking.  At high latitudes, in winter, the air is not heated by the surface (very cold) or the release of latent heat (a cold desert). Neither is it heated directly by the sun (below the horizon). It is heated by the absorption of long wave radiation from the Earth by ozone. In consequence parts of the polar stratosphere and the troposphere are permanently locked together in convection. Consequently ozone descends into the near surface atmosphere.  This process changes the distribution of atmospheric mass and therefore surface pressure. It governs the strength of the planetary winds and cloud cover in the troposphere.  The process manifests as the Northern Annular Mode (or the Arctic Oscillation) and the Southern Annular Mode. These well recognized modes of inter-annual climate variation affect mid and high latitude temperatures and winter snow cover. But this is not the half of it. The influence of the circulation at the winter pole extends to the equator and the alternate hemisphere, especially in the case of the Arctic where stratospheric ozone concentration is more elevated than over Antarctica. If we imagine that this phenomenon is responsible for just the inter-annual climate variation, we reveal a blindness to the evolutionary nature of the phenomenon and its capacity to change climate over decadal and longer time scales.

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