How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

A polar bear inspects a US submarine near the North Pole [credit: Wikipedia]

‘How predictable’ assumes some predictability of a future ‘ice-free’ Arctic in summer – debatable at least.
H/T US CLIVAR – Climate Variability and Predictability Program

The strong decline in the summer sea ice cover of the Arctic over the last decades has led many to ask when the Arctic will be ice-free for the first time.

Rather than providing yet another answer to this question, in a recent Geophysical Research Letters article by Jahn et al., they focused on determining how well the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic can be predicted, due to the inherent internal climate variability of the system.

An Inconvenient Truth: Few Signs Of Global Warming In Antarctica

.
.
Ah, natural variability – the curse of the fanatical warmist.
They don’t understand it and don’t want to believe it exists.
But it does, so they’ll have to put up with it.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/27/an-inconvenient-truth-few-signs-of-global-warming-in-antarctica/

From the Daily Caller:

Antarctica has confounded scientists, defying the dire predictions of scientists the South Pole would shrink and exacerbate sea level rise in the coming decades.

Climate models predicted Antarctic sea ice would shrink as the world warmed, and that warming would boost snowfall over the southern continent. Neither of those predictions have panned out, and now scientists say “natural variability” is overwhelming human-induced warming.

“Truth is, the science is complex, and that in most places and with most events, natural variability still plays a dominant role, and undoubtedly will continue to do so,” Chip Knappenberger, a climate scientist with the libertarian Cato Institute, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

“This applies to goings-on in Antarctica as well as in Louisiana,” Knappenberger said, referring to the recent flooding in Louisiana activists have already blamed global warming for.

What recent studies have shown is that…

View original post 856 more words

New Dawn Of Truth: London Climate Change Conference 2016

It’s finally happening. Thanks to Herculean efforts by Niklas Morner, we are presenting a two-day conference in central London on the 8-9th September. Speakers are coming from all over the world to present their work, and it is not to be missed!

Take the 8-9th September off work and join us for this historic event. The first UK climate conference in decades which will counter the scaremongering of the IPCC with a cool, rational approach to the study of climate change, presenting alternative explanations, new data, theory and commentary. Topics include solar-planetary theory, causes of ENSO, sea ice extent, sea level, ozone depletion, volcanos, regional forecasting, journal gatekeeping and many more.

The list of contributors is long, we are packing a huge number of presentations into this two day event. Speakers include Niklas Morner, myself, Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller,  Nicola Scafetta, Per Strandberg, Jan-Erik Solheim, and thats before lunch on day one! Piers Corbyn will be there! So will  Christopher Monckton! See the full programme and the extended abstracts in this 35 Megabyte document for full details. There are also some travel and booking details on the geoethic.com website. An updated version is available on reseachgate

Elite merchants of #Brexit doom expose their own pre #EUref lies

Post referendum analysis from Rodney Atkinson at Freenations.net

One of the most obnoxious features of the post Brexit climate is that the biggest liars and doom mongers in political history – the Remain campaigners – now accuse Leave Campaigners of lying! This has been picked up in continental attacks on Boris Johnson who, if anything, was rather kind and accommodating given the damage done to people, banks and businesses by the Euro corporatist elites. Now those liars are exposing their own lies:

THE IMF

Before the Brexit vote the IMF head, Christine Lagarde (whose appointment was avidly supported by George Osborne) said that the impact on the UK economy of a Brexit vote went from “pretty bad to very, very bad” and that there could be a recession.

Today the IMF says it has a “benign” view of the Brexit effect on the UK economy, there would be no recession and their revised forecast for UK growth is the same as their revised forecast for USA growth (-0.2% for 2016). Their forecast for UK growth in 2017 is 1.3%

A retrospective, Climate Audit and the late Prof. Kreiss

Tim writes,

Published 27th February 2016 Climate Audit published a small article in honour of Kreiss to do with atmospheric modelling, the hydrostatic balance… or not.

Comments follow from Names. I think the comments are worthy of a read and decode by Talkshop readers who have an interest in this kind of topic.

Gerry Browning: In Memory of Professor Heinz Kreiss

Gerry Browning writes:

The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models

Temperatures Falling As El Niño Fades Quickly

ENSO trend [credit: NOAA]

How much of recent El Nino-backed warming was ‘man-made’, if any? NOAA has issued a La Niña watch so we may well see average temperatures going into reverse before too long.
H/T GWPF

El Niño is quickly fading. Sea surface temperatures are coming down in the tropical Pacific, and winds in the region have weakened. History tells us, and forecast models predict, that La Niña conditions will be quick on its heels.

The long descent toward cycle 25

Our sometimes contributor Michele has posted an article on his Italian language blog.

 

Watching solar: The long descent of solar cycle SC24 has started!
(hopefully Google Translate will kick in automatically (see top of page), or use Bing translation)

Do I (Tim) agree with Michele, yes, will be about now.

We have the most uncertain solar situation in living memory.

MET Office: Forecasting months/seasons ahead “Still in its infancy”.

Roundup of comment on MET Office performance with UK summer weather forecasting from Benny Peiser at GWPF:

 Image Credit: Cartoons by Josh

The Met Office has defended its forecast for a hot, dry summer despite some areas looking set to have the most rain since records began. As summer officially came to a close amid extreme downpours on Monday, the forecaster was left facing questions about why it predicted a ‘drier-than-average’ season even though a strong El Nino climate event was expected. In May the Met Office said that it ‘wouldn’t expect (El Nino) to be the dominant driver of our weather’ in the summer months. Yet this weekend Met Office chief scientist Professor Dame Julia Slingo said that the El Nino phenomenon had disturbed weather patterns, which might have been predicted. “We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done.”–Sarah Knapton, The Daily Telegraph, 31 August 2015

Frosty forecast for BBC-MET Office relations

Met Office loses BBC weather forecasting contract.
[Josh has waved magic –Tim (replacement image Original image)]

The UK’s weather service has provided the data used for BBC forecasts since the corporation’s first radio weather bulletin on 14 November 1922.

The BBC said it was legally required to secure the best value for money for licence fee payers and would tender the contract to outside competition.

The Met Office said it was disappointed by the decision. A replacement is expected to take over next year.

NASA releases dataset of global climate change predictions up to 2100

NASA ‘global warming satellite’ (their description)
[credit: NASA]

Two choices: whether to laugh or cry at the latest fortune-telling exercise from NASA’s warming-obsessed spin-doctors. Climate models are famed for their predictive inadequacy – incompetence even – so this looks exactly like an exercise in futility.

NASA has released a dataset setting out how rainfall and temperature patterns are likely to change in the coming decades, Gizmag reports. The data covers 21 climate models, mapping how our environment could change due to growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Ian Wilson: Connecting the Planetary Periodicities to Changes in the Earth’s LOD

Relevant to current discussions on the talkshop concerning changes in Earth’s length of day (LOD) and the effect of planetary orbital resonances on the Moon’s orbital parameters and Earth climatic variation; this is a repost from Ian Wilson’s excellent Astro-Climate-Connection website. Ian very generously opens with a hat tip to this blog, (at which he is one of the ‘collaborators’ he mentions). 

Connecting the Planetary Periodicities to Changes in the Earth’s LOD
Monday, October 14, 2013 : Ian Wilson PhD

[(*) Some of the findings in this blog post concerning the connection between the Earth’s rotation rate and the planetary configurations have also been independently discovered by Rog “Tallbloke” Tattersall and his collaborators]

A. The Connection Between Extreme Pergiean Spring Tides and Long-term Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate as Measured by the Rate-of-Change of its Length-of-Day (LOD). (*)

If you plot the rate of change of the Earth’s Length of Day (LOD) [with the short-term atmospheric component removed] against time [starting in 1962] you find that there is a ~ 6 year periodicity that is phase-locked with the 6 year period that it takes the lunar line-of-nodes  to re-align with the lunar line-of-apse [see the first note directly below and reference [1] for a description of the method used to determine the time rate of change of LOD].

NB: The pro-grade precession of the lunar line-of-apse once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 8.8504 Julian years (J2000) while the retrograde precession of the lunar line-of-apse line-of-nodes once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 18.6000 Julian years (J2000). Hence, the lunar line-of-apse and the ascending node of the lunar line-of-nodes will realign once every:

(18.6000 x 8.8504) / (18.6000 + 8.8504)  = 5.9969 Julian years

Figure 1

So you like reanalysis, the 3 var trick

NCAR Research Data Archive Blog

2015-03-30
1938 atmospheric river that caused the Los Angeles flood of 1938
At least one person asked why I used a reanalysis that does not assimilate satellite water vapor data to study an atmospheric river (AR) event.

That’s a good question because the NOAA/CIRES Twentieth Century Global Reanalysis Version 2c (20thCR V2c) only ingests three things: surface pressure, sea ice coverage and sea surface temperature. The rest of the analysis is generated by the physical models of NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS).

— http://ncarrda.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/1938-atmospheric-river-that-caused-los.html

Blizard and solar CME forecasting

This failed work is presented as a cautionary tale but nevertheless there might be good parts.

Earlier oldbrew published an article on a theory by Nelson on forecasting the armada of radio propagation conditions. There were not many comments, possibly from the lack of solid further material.

From this paper, we can see why the technique fell at the hurdle. Nevertheless looking at what people were thinking and doing is important.

Met Office woolly forecast for Christmas 2014

Now the dank chill of late autumn gives way to winter frosts

Dusk in winter, England, 1980s. The author.

 

Met Office 16 to 30 day forecast now stretches to Christmas Eve, not that it has changed over the past few days. A sudden weather change without a glimmer of notice for the 25th or 26th, I very much doubt it.

Met Office forecast for period day16to30 issued at 2014-11-25T16:00:00

 

Forecast for All regions (shared forecast) day16to30, from 2014-12-10 16hrs (Wed) to 2014-12-24 16hrs (Wed)

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:

• There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period.
• However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather.
• Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year.
• There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places – this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

 

“There is no strong signal”. Aerial riggers called out…

Jarl Ahlbeck: A link between Low solar activity, Easterly QBO, negative AO and cold NH winters

Future low solar activity periods may cause cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia.
Jarl Ahlbeck – Abo Akademi University, Finland

Historically, low solar activity periods like the Dalton and Maunder Minima have been connected to cold winters in Europe. It seems very possible that the low solar activity forced areas of low pressures into a southern route or caused a negative Arctic Oscillation, AO, which in turn allowed cold air from the North Pole to flow across Europe. But can we obtain from real measurements that low solar activity really is able to do that?

UK Energy policy incompetence: Emergency Measures To Prevent Winter Blackouts announced

Remember this stuff when casting your vote next May. UKIP is the only party with a sensible energy policy. Roundup of (lack of) energy: news by Benny Peiser at GWPF:

Written by Dr. Benny Peiser, GWPF on 28 October 2014

Emergency measures to prevent blackouts this winter have been unveiled by National Grid after Britain’s spare power capacity fell to just 4 per cent. –Emily Gosden, The Daily Telegraph, 27 October 2014

The capacity crunch has been predicted for about seven years. Everyone seems to have seen this coming – except the people in charge.  –Andrew Orlowski, The Register, 10 June 2014

Met Office did not see the storm of 21st October 2014 coming

I’ve started collecting a few of the Met Office published weather forecasts in addition to the weather station data, building an archive.

The UK Met Office are masters of obfuscation, vague language, handwaving yet for all the money poured in over the years their forecasting prowess is notorious. What follows is backed up by more details left for another time.

We have just had a minor blow in London, enough to cancel flights at the premier UK airport, brought down trees, at least one death. The BBC are going on about it as is the Guardian.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29685066
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/21/uk-storms-woman-dead-trees-fall-london-hurricane-gonzalo

[update: Met Office hourly data for the 21st is now in and plotted PDF here (1.4MB) –Tim]

Note for comprehension, 16 to 30 days means that is how far ahead it is from the publication date.

 

Met Office 16 to 30 day forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Oct 2014 to Thursday 23 Oct 2014:

• The broadly northwest-southeast split in the weather conditions is showing signs of persisting through mid-October.
• This pattern would leave southern, central and eastern parts tending to see the best of the weather with conditions often fine and dry.
• Occasional bouts of rain should still be expected, and mist and fog patches may be a problem during morning rush hours.
• Under the fine weather it should still feel pleasant with temperatures a little above average for the time of year.
• Further northwest, conditions are likely to be more unsettled with more frequent outbreaks of rain, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds.
• Temperatures here should be closer to average or perhaps even just below at times.

Lukewarmers and Mainstreamers soft-pedal the pause over salmon

From the Guardian:

Twelve scientists and sceptics (sic) have met privately to discuss how to suck the venom out of the climate change debate.

It was one of science’s strangest social events to date.

Some of the best known names in the climate debate – including Mail on Sunday journalist David Rose, blogger Anthony Watts, and Met Office scientist Richard Betts – shared salmon and civilities at a dinner party last month.

Hosted by the sceptical scientist Nicholas Lewis at his house in Bath in September, the group discussed their similarities, differences, and how they might calm the debate that rages across the pathologically provocative medium of Twitter.

“Both sides are really fed up with the outrageous alarmists who are not representing science properly. Both don’t like those who shout about it and call people names and take a polarised point of view,” says David Whitehouse from the sceptic thinktank The Global Warming Policy Foundation.

Met Office Arctic sea ice extent, issue a forecast 2 months nearer the date?

The UK Met Office forecast for things they choose, such as Arctic sea ice extent but seem completely silent on Antarctica or even handedly dealing with both of pairs of extremes.

Ah well, wait a month or two… forecasting is better after the event IYSWIM

Annotated extract from Met Office Arctic sea ice forecast page
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/arctic-sea-ice

It is possible the file dates do not reflect change in the documents.

NSIDC announcement for 2014 page here (where NSIDC also acknowledge the Antarctica extreme)

A woman in the eye of the political storm over climate change

Georgia Institute of Technology professor Judith Curry [image credit: Wikipedia]

Someone the current US President might do well to listen to before voicing opinions on climate matters is profiled here.

E & E News reports: Judith Curry thinks climate scientists view her as their “biggest threat.”

“I do not pay obeisance to the consensus and I think for myself, and they don’t like that,” said Curry, a professor at the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.