Archive for the ‘climate’ Category

josh-slingo

The new ‘decadal’ forecast, for the next four years, has been put out by the MET-O.

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Chapter-9-Cartoon-CaptionH/T to Josh for this story from the Calcutta Telegraph.

New Delhi, Jan. 26:
India’s monsoon is in no danger of catastrophic collapse in response to global warming and air pollution, two atmospheric scientists said today, refuting earlier predictions that the monsoon could shut down within 100 years.

The scientists at Yale University in the US who used computers to model the Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans have found that the expected changes in the monsoon will not abruptly alter their strength or their water volume.

Their results contradict earlier forecasts by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany portending frequent and severe failures and even a breakdown of the monsoon, which is critical to India’s food, water resources and economy.

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Commenter ‘USteiner’ asks this question on suggestions 16 and explains the reason for asking.

blackbodies

Let’s put aside the conclusion that CO2 makes the antarctic cool the earth. In the Schmithüsen paper (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066749/full) they claim to have made the calculation, and it shows that. However, what is new? This had been measured with – gosh – real data some 45 years (!) ago. See here the Nimbus data from 1971 in Fig. 12d (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19710026041.pdf )

Further, look at Schmitthüsen’s Fig 2. You see the spike on the CO2 pimple at the South pole at a Spectral radiance of 2.5. And exactly at the same level for the US Standard atmosphere. This is at least consistent with an interpretation that CO2 radiates the same everywhere on earth, but becomes only visible, when the background black body radiation from the ground is low enough. And this requirement is fulfilled only at the very cold south pole. So, what is left as excitement?

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Climate change: Crisis or Con-job?

Posted: January 1, 2016 by tallbloke in Big Green, climate, Critique, government, Robber Barons
Tags:

governance

James Delingpole pulls no punches in a new article at Breitbart, part of which I’m reproducing below. Many  in the climate debate try to ‘stick to the science’, to avoid accusations of political bias or motivation. James doesn’t do science, though many think he’s an astute observer of it, and an entertaining, if occasionally over-the-top reporter on the state of the debate.

Global Warming Is Not the Problem. Global Governance Is.
James Delingpole 31:12:2015

To anyone with even half an eye on world events, it’s perfectly obvious that there are many more desperate problems – fundamentalist Islam, say – than the imaginary problem of man-made global warming. So why do our political class persist in pretending to us, in defiance of all the evidence, that “climate change” represents the only global issue serious enough to justify the convening of a conference like the recent one in Paris attended by 40,000 delegates and the leaders of over 150 nation states?

The answer to this is too complicated for one sentence – for the full story read this book – but the consequences can be summed up in two words: global governance.

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New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.

sats-from-1995

Fig 1. Global temperature series from the two satellite datasets. The big El nino events in 1998 and 2010 were both followed by downturns. The 2015 El Nino will also be followed by a downturn in temperature.

Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that  we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.

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Met Office station data release

Posted: December 30, 2015 by tchannon in climate, Dataset, Surfacestation, weather

I am making available all the data collected from Met Office Datapoint for UK land stations.

Image

Example of data processed to show deviations.

This is hourly from 22nd July 2014 through 28th 31st Dec 2015, missing, etc. excepted. The data has been processed into time series with missing data filled with not available marks and also the verbatim datapoint XML as received.

A Talkshop page has been added, can get to it via top menu Portal, direct link here.

This ought to be a gold mine for those able to work on data. Millions of datapoints. The Met Office do not archive this immediate data for public access so whilst there are defects, you’ll have trouble finding this elsewhere.

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Scene on the pampas in Argentina  [image credit: globalgeopolitics.net]

Scene on the pampas in Argentina
[image credit: globalgeopolitics.net]

This CO2Science report won’t be to the liking of those who claim the MWP was confined to parts of the northern hemisphere.

Vilanova et al. (2015) developed a multi-proxy millennial environmental record from sediment cores extracted from Laguna Nassau, a shallow lake that apparently developed within a blowout depression in the semi-arid sandy lowlands of the Western Pampas of Argentina.

And as they go on to report, “this multi-proxy stacked record reveals the evolution of an incipient water body subjected to warm and dry conditions from ~900 to 770 cal yr BP, an interval that is coeval with the Medieval Climatic Anomaly,” which is also more commonly known as the Medieval Warm Period or MWP.

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NOAA graphic

NOAA graphic


The GWPF reports: The conservative watchdog group Judicial Watch announced Tuesday that it is suing the Obama administration to obtain the same internal communications of federal scientists sought by a House committee in a dispute over global warming research.

The group said in a news release that it filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Washington on Dec. 2 against the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, seeking the agency’s “methodology for collecting and interpreting data used in climate models.”

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A Senate hearing

A Senate hearing


This Heartlander Magazine report is worth a look just for its tongue-in-cheek graphic called ‘The Scientific Method – Then And Now‘.

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), chairman of the Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, convened a hearing on December 8 titled “Data or Dogma? Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate.”

A number of noted scientists gave presentations at the hearing and I thought I’d summarize a few of their remarks [see link below].

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Tim writes: here we have a demonstration of both sides of scientific and organisational integrity. Ten years later, 2005, there was confirmation of the poor practice.

Some time ago Part 1 was published

The last line of the 1995 email was withheld. Here it is

Our daily series is anchored to the monthly one so that
each months average calculated from the daily data equals its value
in Manleys monthly series.

The Met Office promote “Hadley Centre Central England Temperature” and HadCET but avoid “Manley CET”. There was and is no daily Manley CET. The Met Office made one up, adjusting daily figures to average the Manley CET monthly value exactly.

January 1974 onwards there is no Manley CET data to constrain Met Office daily figures.

Image

Above is an image of the email, the verbatim server files from US publishing site are here inside a zip. File timestamps are preserved, presumably from original FTP disk write here on a contemporary computer system.

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[credit:geowords.com] Note: Tallbloke's Talkshop is non - profit and use is for educational purposes only.

[credit:geowords.com]
Note: Tallbloke’s Talkshop is non – profit and use is for educational purposes only.


Scientists have found an explanation for one of the big mysteries in climate science with the help of 12,000-year old Swedish midges, reports ScienceNordic.

A combination of fossilised midges and climate modelling suggest that melting ice sheets in Scandinavia triggered a dramatic 1,000-year long cold snap in Europe 12,800 years ago. Temporary and extreme climate changes punctuated the warming of the Northern Hemisphere as the Earth escaped the icy grip of the last Ice Age.

One such event occurred 12,800 years ago–the so-called Younger Dryas–when Europe was suddenly plunged back into near-Ice Age conditions. The ensuing cold struck Europe and Russia quickly, and hard. But how and why remained a mystery.

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paris_banner_webIn association with the
Independent Committee on Geoethics www. www.geoethic.com
and the Collectif des Climato Réalistes www.www.skyfall.fr
Summary Statement
Over thirty years of intense (and extremely expensive) research has totally failed to produce any evidence that human emissions of CO2 are driving climate. CO2 is not a danger to but a benefit for all life on our planet.
We call on governments, NGOs and universities to stop pursuing policy and dogma based ‘evidence’ gathering.

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Gordon Valentine Manley and his work

Posted: December 11, 2015 by tchannon in climate, History, weather

This recent paper turned up when I was looking for information on Manley of CET fame. This may be of interest to some readers. Side effect I can reference this from an article I am producing on CET.

Endfield, G. H., Veale, L. and Hall, A. (2015), Gordon Valentine Manley and his contribution to the study of climate change: a review of his life and work. WIREs Clim Change, 6: 287–299. doi: 10.1002/wcc.334

To my surprise with Wiley group this appears to be open access.

Quoting a quote from the paper

“Have you ever wondered why we in this country
have been so active? Have you ever looked at a world
population map and wondered why the great ‘blobs’
of world population are where they are? Have you
ever wondered why the active subscribers of world
civilisations are primarily in Europe?”

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[image credit: securecloudreview.com]

[image credit: securecloudreview.com]


India says $2 billion, the OECD says $57 billion of a promised $100 billion in ‘climate money’ has been put on the table, as catch news reports. Who is right? Accusations of double counting and other trickery are in the air.

In order to help developing countries emit less carbon and deal with climate change, rich countries promised to pay poorer nations $100 billion each year until 2020. This promise was made at the 2010 climate change summit.

But the funding has barely crossed $2 billion, or 0.5% of the promised amount, according to a Finance Ministry study. This is in sharp contrast to a report by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a grouping of rich nations, claiming in October that an average $57 billion flowed in 2013 and 2014.

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Coal-hungry China [image credit: democraticunderground.com]

Coal-hungry China [image credit: democraticunderground.com]


The trick for many countries at COP 21 is to talk a good game without committing to too much financial pain. Also China is building coal-fired power stations at a record rate even while world leaders are indulging in a big moan about CO₂ levels. Your Oil & Gas News questions whether China’s climate claims can be taken seriously.

The United Nations’ 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21), running in Paris from November 30 to December 11, 2015, will see China come under particular scrutiny, as the country is likely to propose CO₂ emissions reduction targets that others view as unrealistic, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.

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paris_banner_web

The alternative climate conference to COP21 in Paris this year is the Paris Climate Challenge, organised by Tom Harris of the International Climate Science Coalition and Philip Foster, author of several books on climate.

The Schedule has been finalised:

Challenging the groupthink of COP21

Stuart Agnew, Bob Carter, Piers Corbyn, Ed Flaherty, Philip Foster, Roger Helmer, Tom Harris, Donna Laframboise, Viscount Monckton, Patrick Moore, Nils-Axel Mörner, Ian Plimer, [Murry Salby], Roger Tattersall & more …  tba

If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking. – Gen. George Patton

Schedule @ 11 rue La Rochefoucauld 75009 Paris

TUESDAY 1st Dec

10am Coffee/refreshments

10.30am start

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But not the end he was thinking of ? [credit: wizbangblog.com]

But not the end he was thinking of ? [credit: wizbangblog.com]


Are prophets of climate doom going out of fashion? The BBC fears so.

Public support for a strong global deal on climate change has declined, according to a poll carried out in 20 countries. Only four now have majorities in favour of their governments setting ambitious targets at a global conference in Paris.

In a similar poll before the Copenhagen meeting in 2009, eight countries had majorities favouring tough action. The poll has been provided to the BBC by research group GlobeScan.

Just under half of all those surveyed viewed climate change as a “very serious” problem this year, compared with 63% in 2009.

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Much ado about nothing?

Much ado about nothing?


The Paris climate conference is already looking like an expensive waste of time, judging by this report.

The US Senate sent a powerful and unmistakable message to UN climate delegates this week: Don’t expect any US money for Obama’s climate promises.

52 U.S. Senators voted to block an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule this week that would curb carbon emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. Passing the resolution without a veto-proof vote (the President has already promised not to sign it) makes this act of defiance symbolic only. But with the Paris climate summit just a week and a half away, it’s powerful symbolism indeed.

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COP21 website sets out to disprove sceptical arguments

Posted: November 15, 2015 by tallbloke in alarmism, climate
Tags:

Here’s an amusing page from the French government’s COP21 website. I’ve added comments in bold italics. These people need to answer the the Paris Climate Challenge to support their own position, rather than create strawman arguments put into the mouths of sceptics.

Climate-change sceptics’ main arguments disproved point by point.
faux

Global warming stopped in 1998 – since then, temperatures have barely risen.

vrai

This claim is based on the Hadley Center report which showed a rise in average temperature of 0.02°C per decade between 1998 and 2008. It has since been widely publicized by climate-change sceptics and wrongly interpreted as a sign that global warming has stopped. But this set of statistics did not include the Arctic, where temperatures have risen significantly in recent years.

This is incorrect, summer minimum has been stable for the last decade on average.

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Era ending for Martin’s Booty

Posted: November 15, 2015 by tchannon in climate, Dataset, History, weather

Back in April I noticed this but did not post an article
[UPDATED]

Image

Many people have wandered through the wonderland Martin created during the early years of the world wide web. His painstaking construction of an annotated weather timeline from ancient times up to today.

Booty Meteorological Information Source

IMPORTANT: Some elements on this web site will continue to be maintained as long as I am able – mainly the West Moors local weather data: however, the ‘Weather in History’ section will have to be ‘frozen’ now as I can no longer access the ‘raw data’ to add-to / amend the entries. However, I’m pleased to report that the British Library have offered to archive the entire site (with the ‘Weather in History’ files embedded) and this will mean that the data will be available as long as that organisation is in being: the host web site is HERE: enter the search term ” Booty Meteorological ” into the text box to find the data.

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