Archive for the ‘climate’ Category

imageWillie Soon, Ronan Connolly & Michael Connolly have reviewed the ongoing solar variability debate, constructed and assessed a new Northern Hemisphere rural temperature trend and find a close match with the Scafetta & Wilson update to the Hoyte & Schatten TSI reconstruction.

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This article is part of preparing the way for later revelations about instrumentation defects.

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Figure 1 (upper), Figure 2 (lower) computed mean insolation for horizontal surface at this exact location and weather parameters, no cloud.

Figure 1 (upper), Experimental work[1] showing nearly daily temperature variation from expected, specifically designed to exclude diurnal but include detail variation at the fastest scale feasible. Time graticule at 10 days, data points at 12 hours. Surprisingly the July 1st hot period has vanished. Plots of other sites show a similar effect. The most frequent warm and cool periods of weather are brief and readily seen.

This computation will produce different values from the mean values computed from thermometer minimum and maximum data because data shape at other times is taken into account, min/max does not. The filter used is also windowed, leakage is negligible.

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oldbrew:

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A trillion dollars or more of incentives really gets the imaginations of the climate crowd going.

Originally posted on Real Science:

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oldbrew:

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Yet another inconvenient story to be swept under the ‘official climate science’ carpet.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

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We are supposed to believe that Antarctic glaciers have only recently started to recede.

Back in 1932, they knew that the process had begun in the 19thC.

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http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/23150667

Sir James Ross undertook his expeditions to the Antarctic in the 1840’s.

Interestingly, Bernacchi accompanied Scott on the 1901-04 Antarctic expedition. and Scott was best man at his colleague’s wedding in 1906. Bernacchi was invited to go on Scott’s ill fated second expedition, but declined due to family commitments.

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[image credit: Richard Austin News Pictures]

[image credit: Richard Austin News Pictures]


Long-time critic Christopher Booker says: THE MORE MONEY THE MET OFFICE GETS, THE MORE INACCURATE ITS DOOM-MONGERING [Date: 07/08/15, Daily Mail]

The performance of the Met Office for which we pay £220 million a year is not just a joke, but a major scandal. And well done the BBC for allowing Quentin Letts, for once, to point this out.

Very surprisingly and somewhat boldly, on Wednesday morning Radio 4 put out a programme by the Mail’s Quentin Letts which ran flatly counter to the BBC’s normal party line on one of its very favourite subjects, global warming.

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YDBfield
Is this the last word on the mysterious Younger Dryas period? It’s an interesting, if not entirely new, hypothesis at least.

At the end of the Pleistocene period, approximately 12,800 years ago—give or take a few centuries—a cosmic impact triggered an abrupt cooling episode that earth scientists refer to as the Younger Dryas, reports Phys.org.

New research by UC Santa Barbara geologist James Kennett and an international group of investigators has narrowed the date to a 100-year range, sometime between 12,835 and 12,735 years ago. The team’s findings appear today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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Tim writes, someone somewhere reminded me

An anon has reminded me of a critical paper published in the May 1967 issue Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.

As such in the context of the mid 1960s with little knowledge or computing hardware there ought to be no problem. Unfortunately a number of critical fixed assumptions and of ideas in the paper were ignored for what they were and has formed the basis of the nonsense we have today. The continued correction which typifies science guessing seemed to cease.

Given the Talkshop has many new eyes and opinions since the last mention of this paper a look today is a good move, or at least I think so.

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Extracted from paper, one of several choices.

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Arctic ice melt [image credit: Jenny E. Ross]

Arctic ice melt [image credit: Jenny E. Ross]


A few Arctic sea ice myths get exploded in this BBC report:

The volume of Arctic sea ice increased by around a third after an unusually cool summer in 2013. Researchers say the growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for losses recorded in the three previous years.

The scientists involved believe changes in summer temperatures have greater impacts on ice than thought. But they say 2013 was a one-off and that climate change will continue to shrink the ice in the decades ahead.

Talkshop comment: ‘they say’…based on what evidence?

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Climate talks 'flagging' ?[image credit: The Clinic]

Climate talks ‘flagging’ ?[image credit: The Clinic]


Usual story – rich and poor countries fighting about money. Things are so bad, they need a pre-conference conference to try and figure out what they’re going to say and do at the real conference, apart from wave ‘projections’ and ‘scenarios’ at each other. Or – anyone fancy a trip to Paris in July?

Foreign and environment ministers and other high-level officials from 45 countries are set to gather in Paris Monday seeking to re-energise climate talks mired in technical details and political squabbling, reports Yahoo News.

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[Image credit: NASA]

[Image credit: NASA]


Another solar theory rolls off the production line – as ever, time will tell if it lives up to its own billing.

A new model of the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat suggests that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s, dropping to conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, reports Ice Age Now.

Beginning in about 1645, the Maunder minimum corresponded with the severest portion of the last
“Little Ice Age.”

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Pacific ocean [image credit: Wikipedia]

Pacific ocean [image credit: Wikipedia]


H/T GWPF
Let’s see if this new paper in the same journal as the ‘what hiatus?’ effort gets the same level of publicity as the other one, given that ‘Nieves et al…find substantially less warming in the top 100 m of the oceans in the current decade than in the previous one.’

If there is one topic that illustrates the state of climate science it is that of the so-called “pause” or hiatus – the observational fact that global surface annual average temperatures, as well as satellite data on the lower troposphere, hasn’t changed for a decade or more.

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oldbrew:

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The US President seems to be doing a Lord Nelson, turning a blind eye

Originally posted on Real Science:

President Obama says that global warming is the biggest problem Earth has ever faced, based on the opinion of about three or four flaming morons he considers to be the world’s top scientists. He also says he doesn’t have time to debate the “Flat Earth Society” – which by his definition would include this guy.

In 2008, Dr. Ivar Giaever joined over 70 Nobel Science Laureates in endorsing Barack Obama for president, but seven years later the Nobel Prize winner now stands against the president on global warming.

“I would say that basically global warming is a non-problem,” Giaever, who won the Nobel for physics in 1973, told an audience at the Lindau Nobel Laureate meeting earlier this month.

Giaever ridiculed Obama for stating that “no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change.” The physicist called it a “ridiculous statement” and that Obama “gets…

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Ocean crisis or hot air?

Posted: July 3, 2015 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Ocean dynamics, opinion, propaganda
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The carbon cycle [credit: laurencenet.net]

The carbon cycle [credit: laurencenet.net]


The BBC enthusiastically churns out another alarm-filled report on the supposed state of the climate, this time focussing on the oceans. But look closer and there are some awkward questions. First the report:

Scientists have warned that marine life will be irreversibly changed unless CO2 emissions are drastically cut.

Writing in Science, experts say the oceans are heating, losing oxygen and becoming more acidic because of CO2.

They warn that the 2C maximum temperature rise for climate change agreed by governments will not prevent dramatic impacts on ocean systems.

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Florida_Snow14
Daily Media Review cuts through the headlines and scare stories to point out some of the key fallacies and failed assumptions relied upon by the climate change scare industry.

The mainstream media love to lecture us daily about the coming apocalypse as a result of catastrophic climate change, but are we being told the complete story?

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The Pope has spoken

Posted: June 15, 2015 by Andrew in climate

imageThe climate Comms event of, at least this week, has arrived early due to a leak. The Vatican has released its view on the state of the planet. Much anticipated by some on both sides of the debate, the leak will no doubt leave the usual suspects scrambling to spin the Encyclical for all it is worth.

A crime against nature is a crime against ourselves and a sin against God”

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[credit: Wikipedia]

[credit: Wikipedia]


More pseudo-religious climate nonsense in Thursday’s Guardian:

Quote: ‘James Inhofe, infamous for tossing a snowball across the Senate floor to demonstrate ‘the greatest hoax ever perpetrated against the American people’, says Pope Francis should ‘stay with his job’ during a pitch to fellow unbelievers

The Guardian report later says: ‘In the world outside, anticipation was building for the pope to deliver his much-awaited encyclical next week, when he is expected to cast climate change as a moral issue.’

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NASA 'global warming satellite' (their description)  [credit: NASA]

NASA ‘global warming satellite’ (their description)
[credit: NASA]


Two choices: whether to laugh or cry at the latest fortune-telling exercise from NASA’s warming-obsessed spin-doctors. Climate models are famed for their predictive inadequacy – incompetence even – so this looks exactly like an exercise in futility.

NASA has released a dataset setting out how rainfall and temperature patterns are likely to change in the coming decades, Gizmag reports. The data covers 21 climate models, mapping how our environment could change due to growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

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[credit: NASA]

[credit: NASA]


A few weeks ago we put up a post to discuss the role of convection in the Earth’s atmosphere:
Beginner’s guide to convection cells

The introduction, linked to a short video, said:
‘When you warm air, it rises. Cool air will sink. This process of convection can lead to flows in the atmosphere, in a manner that we can illustrate [see video] on a small scale. Warm and cool air in a fish tank rise and fall; this motion is made visible by adding fog. Ultimately, the motion leads to a convection cell, with air rising, moving to the side, falling, and moving back. This heat-driven motion of air moves heat around in the atmosphere. It is also responsible for making the wind blow.’

That may have seemed straightforward to some, but a few hundred comments later controversy continues, so we’re starting a new post using this website for reference : Lapse Rate, Moisture, Clouds and Thunderstorms

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Snowy Boston 2015

Snowy Boston 2015


Despite the fact that former climate guru James Hansen conceded there had been a temperature standstill in the current century, it’s now claimed by the NOAA that it was all a myth.

A reported pause in global warming—a mystery that has vexed scientists and delighted contrarians—was an illusion based on inadequate data, U.S. government researchers reported Thursday.

The findings by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) researchers that there was no warming “hiatus” over the past 15 years could reshape consensus science on recent climate change. The research undercuts an argument of pundits and politicians who oppose taking action.

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Paul Vaughan has produced a six page .pdf document crammed with the fruits of his research into the ways in which solar variation affects Earth’s climate. Several of the observations and concepts coincide with the work we have been doing here at the talkshop over the last six years to unravel the mysteries of solar system dynamics and their effect on Terrestrial variation. Paul has applied his stats and visualisation skills and thorough approach to referencing, including direct links to data. This has resulted in a landmark document which readers will find both useful and inspiring. It demonstrates the progress that has been made in solar-terrestrial theory, (with hints about the underlying planetary solar relations too).

vaughan-s-t-primer

 

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