Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies

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Plenty for Talkshoppers to get their teeth into here.

Climate Etc.

by Javier

The role of solar variability on climate change, despite having a very long scientific tradition, is currently downplayed as a climatic factor within the most popular hypothesis for climate change.

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Arctic sea-ice melt reporting: the amazing flip-flops

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Excellent. So climate alarmists trumpeting Arctic ice melt are prone to farcical exaggeration at least, utter rubbish at worst. Who knew?

Trust, yet verify

Two posts ago, on the subject of another claim of an ice-free Arctic published in the Guardian, the discussion arose whether the journalist realized that he quoted someone with a poor track record in that matter. Commenter Chrism56 alerted me that the journalist (Robin McKie) already had written articles in the past on this subject, so he should have known that there were issues with the credibility of this claim.

The link that was provided went to an article from 2008 in which McKie reported about the claim of an ice-free Arctic that back then was expected five years further in the future.

The claim was made by Serreze, Maslowski and Wadhams. Apparently he should know about the botched prediction in the meanwhile.

I became curious whether there were more articles written by McKie on this topic and also how he wrote about it in say 2013, when it became…

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Cease tax-funded climate tourism

Credit: http://www.clexit.net.

By Viv Forbes

For at least 21 years now, the U.N. and the IPCC have been ringmaster to a troupe of thousands. They perform at massive annual conferences held in exotic locations, serviced by top hotels and airlines, and funded largely, directly or indirectly, by reluctant taxpayers. 

An estimated 45,000 attendees, including 114 from the Australian government, achieved nothing useful at Copenhagen and just more green tape in Paris. Each of these climate-fests is preceded by numerous meetings of bureaucrats drafting and redrafting their wish lists.

Now the U.N. Climateer-in-Chief, Ban Ki-moon, has jetted into the G20 summit in China to claim climate victory over climate skeptics.

Is there no end to this energy-wasting climate tourism? If they believe that the science is settled, no more conferences are needed.

Booker: Rising CO2 emissions show Paris climate agreement is an act of delusion

Not news to Talkshop readers, but it helps when these points appear in mainstream outlets like the Daily Telegraph.
Via the GWPF

It is hard to recall any event in history that has been more absurdly and comprehensively misrepresented by politicians and the media.

Naturally the BBC and others have been quick to trumpet the news that China and the US yesterday agreed to ratify last December’s Paris agreement on climate change.

This “historic landmark”, it is being claimed, will be a major step towards saving the planet, by slashing the world’s emissions of carbon dioxide, thus supposedly preventing global temperatures from rising more than two degrees C above their pre-industrial levels.

But like everything else we have been told about that Paris agreement, it is all smoke and mirrors.

Inhofe to Obama: Your climate agenda will fail

Senator Inhofe – not a snowball’s chance…?

Getting any Paris-related climate legislation passed by the US Senate will be ‘Mission Impossible’ for Obama according to this report from the DC’s Michael Bastasch.

Oklahoma Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe criticized President Barack Obama Thursday for joining an international global warming treaty without Senate approval.

The Senate committee chair also warned Obama his global warming ambitions were bound to fail since he needs legislative approval to make the emissions cuts he’s promised the United Nations.

“History already shows that this Paris Agreement will fail,” Inhofe said in an emailed statement.

How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

A polar bear inspects a US submarine near the North Pole [credit: Wikipedia]

‘How predictable’ assumes some predictability of a future ‘ice-free’ Arctic in summer – debatable at least.
H/T US CLIVAR – Climate Variability and Predictability Program

The strong decline in the summer sea ice cover of the Arctic over the last decades has led many to ask when the Arctic will be ice-free for the first time.

Rather than providing yet another answer to this question, in a recent Geophysical Research Letters article by Jahn et al., they focused on determining how well the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic can be predicted, due to the inherent internal climate variability of the system.

Scientists begin to unravel summer jet stream mystery

Forecaster highlights the jetstream over the UK [image credit: BBC]

Why jetstream shifts might be linked to Arctic ice (among other factors) is not made clear, so we’re left wondering.

Scientists have discovered the cause of the recent run of miserable wet summers as they begin to unravel the mysteries of the Atlantic jet stream, reports Phys.org.

Researchers from the University of Sheffield and The Met Office have identified a number of possible factors that may influence the Atlantic jet stream and therefore help to predict summer climate from one year to the next.

Hubris: The Troubling Science, Economics, and Politics of Climate Change

Interview at Lifesitenews with Michael Hart.

Michael Hart is a former official in Canada’s Department of Foreign Affairs and now emeritus professor of international affairs at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, where he has taught courses on the laws and institutions of international trade, Canadian foreign policy, and the politics of climate change. He held the Fulbright-Woodrow Wilson Center Visiting Research Chair in Canada-U.S. Relations and was Scholar-in-Residence in the School of International Service, Senior Fellow at American University in Washington, and is the founder and director emeritus of Carleton University’s Centre for Trade Policy and Law. In addition, he has taught courses in several other countries. He is the author, editor, or co-editor of more than a dozen books and several hundred articles.

LifeSiteNews interviewed him during a conference on Catholic Perspectives on the Environment, sponsored by the Wojtyla Institute for Teachers, held at Our Lady Seat of Wisdom in Barry’s Bay, Ontario, August  4-6, 2016.

1)  Professor Hart, your book Hubris: The Troubling Science, Economics, and Politics of Climate Change, has recently been published. In it, you challenge a worldwide project that has become something of a sacred cow. Can you tell our readers what motivated you to begin your research into the subject?

I was initially motivated by questions from my students – and my wife – about the policy implications of climate change. The more I looked into it, however, the more I learned the extent to which it fit with one of my research interests: the extent to which modern health, safety, and environmental regulatory activity relies on poor science advanced by activists to push an agenda. I learned that both domestic and international actors had succeeded in using the poorly understood science of climate change to advance an ambitious environmental agenda focused on increasing centralized control over people’s daily lives.

Now California’s Climate Cops Are Going After the Cows

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Climate obsessives never know when to stop being ridiculous.

American Elephants

California is sliding slowly into the abyss. It’s not enough that 9,000 companies have packed up and moved to more tax-friendly states. The Bay Area is so expensive that few can afford to live there. Progressives run the place like their own personal slot machine.

The California Air Resources Board has issued regulations to cut the state’s greenhouse emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, but the board is getting worried about their climate agenda. It could all be ruined by natural phenomena.They’ve gone after the oil producers, the manufacturers and now they are going after the cows.

It’s methane, which”according to the board is a ‘short-lived climate pollutant with an outsized impact on climate change in the near term.” ” “Cow manure and ‘enteric fermentation’ (flatulence) account for half of the state’s methane emissions.”

“If dairy farms in California were to manage manure in a way to further reduce methane…

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New Dawn Of Truth: London Climate Change Conference 2016

It’s finally happening. Thanks to Herculean efforts by Niklas Morner, we are presenting a two-day conference in central London on the 8-9th September. Speakers are coming from all over the world to present their work, and it is not to be missed!

Take the 8-9th September off work and join us for this historic event. The first UK climate conference in decades which will counter the scaremongering of the IPCC with a cool, rational approach to the study of climate change, presenting alternative explanations, new data, theory and commentary. Topics include solar-planetary theory, causes of ENSO, sea ice extent, sea level, ozone depletion, volcanos, regional forecasting, journal gatekeeping and many more.

The list of contributors is long, we are packing a huge number of presentations into this two day event. Speakers include Niklas Morner, myself, Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller,  Nicola Scafetta, Per Strandberg, Jan-Erik Solheim, and thats before lunch on day one! Piers Corbyn will be there! So will  Christopher Monckton! See the full programme and the extended abstracts in this 35 Megabyte document for full details. There are also some travel and booking details on the geoethic.com website. An updated version is available on reseachgate

Temperature Variation Due to ENSO

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Useful comparison of ENSO and (supposed) CO2 influences on climate by kenskingdom. ENSO correlations look significant, whereas CO2 – nothing to report really.
H/T Climate Depot

kenskingdom

In this post I use the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) supplied by NOAA at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html and lower tropospheric temperature data supplied by UAH to show how much of temperature variation over the past 20 years is due to ENSO and how little is due to CO2.  I will keep words brief and let graphics do the talking.

Firstly, here is the MEI data from 1950:

Fig. 1:  Monthly MEI from 1950

As an aside, this is how it compares with SOI data.  The SOI is inverted and both are scaled for comparison.

Fig. 2:  MEI compared with SOI inverted

Now compare scaled MEI with Global UAH:

Fig. 3: MEI (scaled) and UAH

Notice tropospheric temperatures appear to lag the MEI by some 5 months:

Fig. 4: MEI advanced 5 months and UAH

Notice both datasets are noisy, and there is a clear discrepancy in the early 1990s.  12 month running…

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Hourly data store

Tim writes,

Figure 1, hourly data collected from Met Office Datapoint over two years for Heathrow, one of many stations with data.

I’ve succeeded in collecting a massive data store from Met Office Datapoint, hourly data for many UK stations, known errors in the supplied data excepted. Some data is missing, such as the week when I went into hospital and in error had powered off the automatic data collection computer. The poor air, blue tinged when I realised.

I could upload the whole lot as CSV files inside an archive but the sheer size of this is a disincentive unless there is genuine demand. 40 or so MB, 230 MB uncompressed.

https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/series-2016-07-27.zip 43MB (Megabytes)

There are also daily plots as PDF, a mountain of data. What do people want if anything?

US Republicans vote down funding for global climate fund

Credit: energyefficientsolutions.com

The Buy-a-Climate delusion gets the thumbs down in the US. H/T GWPF

The House Appropriations Committee on Tuesday voted down a Democratic push to allow federal spending on an international climate change program.

Rep. Nita Lowey (N.Y.), the ranking Democrat on the panel, proposed an amendment to the House’s State Department and foreign operations spending bill that would let the federal government contribute to the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund (GCF). Republicans have looked to block that funding.

Judith Curry Slams AAAS – “Blatant Misuse Of Scientific Authority”

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As a blog commenter notes: “The American Association for the Assassination of Science” has spoken.

Judith Curry writes: “The AAAS et al. have shot themselves in the foot with this one”.
They’ve tried their best to make an AAAS of themselves😐

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Professional science organizations’ calling on Republican lawmakers to stop questioning climate science is a “a blatant misuse of scientific authority,” according to a prominent climate scientist.

“This statement is a blatant misuse of scientific authority to advocate for specific socioeconomic policies,” Judith Curry, a Georgia Tech climate scientist, wrote of a letter sent by dozens of scientific groups to Congress last week.

Science groups, led by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), sent a letter to Congress reminding lawmakers of the “the consensus scientific view of climate change.”

“This conclusion is based on multiple independent lines of evidence and the vast body of peer-reviewed science,” the AAAS letter reads. “There is strong evidence that ongoing climate change is having broad negative impacts on society, including the global economy, natural resources, and human health.”

But Curry, a noted skeptic of many of the claims…

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Big Drop In June Temperatures According To UAH

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We’re supposed to believe that CO2 levels determine global temperature, but here in plain sight is obvious evidence that they don’t.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Roy Spencer has news of a big drop in satellite temperatures last month:

NOTE: This is the fifteenth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. Note we are now at “beta5” for Version 6, and the paper describing the methodology is still in peer review.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2016 is +0.34 deg. C, down 0.21 deg. C from the May value of +0.55 deg. C (click for full size version):

This gives a 2-month temperature fall of -0.37 deg. C, which is the second largest in the 37+ year satellite record…the largest was -0.43 deg. C in Feb. 1988.

In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56 deg. C, just edging out -0.55 deg. C in June 1998 (also an El Nino…

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RJ Salvador: Predicting El Niño predicts the climate

We’re pleased to say: Rick Salvador has been busy again.
[This graphic has been added by the Talkshop mainly for entertainment value]

Credit: Wikipedia

RJS writes:
The following demonstrates that Metoffice Hadcrut4 is a restatement of the NOAA El Nino index. It’s based on the conjecture that not only do El Nino events have an immediate effect on world temperature but also the clustering of El Nino or La Nina events have a cumulative effect on the worlds temperature. Ian Wilson and Paul Vaughan have provide the frame work to show that El Nino events are governed by the interaction of the Sun and Moon coupled with the hemispherical asymmetry of the Earth’s surface properties. The climate variation is driven by the ratio in strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events.

Brexit will make it harder for UK climate policies, Climate Minister warns

The UK Guardian newspaper is already wringing its hands over the effect of the Brexit vote on its hopes of seeing UK lands and shores smothered with wind turbines. UKIP getting some power on a Welsh climate committee has also spooked the paper. Of course the central problem remains: what happens when the wind doesn’t blow?
H/T GWPF

Offshore wind project in North Wales[image credit: northwales.com]

Brexit will make it harder for Britain to play its role in tackling climate change, the UK energy and climate secretary has said.

But Amber Rudd said that the UK remained committed to action on global warming and Whitehall sources have told the Guardian that on Thursday she will approve a world-leading carbon target for 2032.

Brexit: Paris climate agreement will have to be rewritten

Credit: thenewdaily.com.au

Britain will have to negotiate its own climate agreement after quitting the EU, the GWPF reports. This could be interesting if – as seems likely – climate sceptics are prominent in the new UK leadership.

Top UN climate change official Christiana Figueres said Britain’s decision to leave the EU meant the Paris agreement would need to be redrawn. This could delay EU ratifi­cation of the deal, which is already under pressure because India and Russia have said they were ­unlikely to sign this year.

Unless the Paris agreement is ratified this year by countries representing more than 55 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, it will be vulnerable to being scrapped completely by a future Donald Trump presidency in the US.

Peiser: Brexit has significant implications for energy and climate policies

Image credit: nbcnews.com

We’ve had the big UK vote but the ‘fun’ is only just starting. Some well-publicised EU-driven policies are now on short notice. A more credible energy policy seems a possibility.
H/T GWPF

When British voters chose to leave the European Union Thursday night, they weren’t just voting against Brussels’ immigration policies, they were also voting against Europe’s growing list of green mandates.

House Science Committee: we have a duty to investigate your effort to criminalize scientific dissent

Political battle lines seem to be being drawn over the attempt by some US Attorney Generals to use legal pressure to harass and intimidate perceived dissenters from climate change orthodoxy, whatever that may be.
H/T GWPF / Washington Times

The 17 attorneys general pursuing climate change dissenters for accusations of “fraud” want House Republicans to mind their own business. That’s not going to happen.