Archive for the ‘climate’ Category

When it comes to climate matters the BBC’s claims of impartiality crumble to dust.


By Paul Homewood

A major new and serious complaint has been sent to the Director General of the BBC, regarding the Corporation’s persistent bias in reporting of climate change issues. The complaint is a massive 163 pages long, and is a joint submission from ten complainants. In addition, there are several technical annexes, totalling 125 pages.

Below is the letter sent to the DG:


22nd April 2016

The Director General
180 Great Portland Street

W1W 5QZ.

Dear Director General,

Complaint of BBC prejudice in covering of climate change and warning of potential judicial review

We enclose a complaint from all of us about persistent partiality in the BBC’s coverage of climate change. From the outset, on the climate question the BBC has tended to reflect only one view – that of the climate science establishment who are promoting a view that man is causing significant global…

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Image credit: NASA

Image credit: NASA

Note from the author: I am sending you my new paper. It has been just published.

Scafetta, N.: High resolution coherence analysis between planetary and climate oscillations.
Advances in Space Research 57, 2121-2135, 2016.
DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2016.02.029

To help access and share the article, there is the following article link, which will provide free access to the article until June 9, 2016.


Credit: NASA - GISS

Credit: NASA – GISS

There have been many studies reporting climate cycles with a frequency in the 60-year range, and another one has just arrived.

Two things to consider are the general idea of the existence of such a cycle, which has often been proposed, and the prediction that we are entering (to quote the paper abstract) the ‘declining phase’ of it .




We’ll no doubt get plenty more of this brainwashing language of climate-speak in the years ahead. How expensive energy is going to help poorer countries is, unsurprisingly, not mentioned.

The World Bank has announced a new plan which it hopes will succeed in keeping up positive momentum towards a clean energy transformation as laid down in COP21.




Try not to be too surprised. The research recommends everyone to ‘place recent and predicted rainfall-pattern changes in a millennium-long context.’

Predictions that a warmer ­climate will lead to more rain for some but longer droughts for others might be wrong, according to a study of 12 centuries worth of data. The study, published today in science journal Nature, found there was no difference between 20th-century rainfall patterns and those in the pre-­industrial era.

The findings are at odds with earlier studies suggesting climate­ change causes dry areas to become drier and wet areas to become wetter.


Rinks Glacier, West Greenland  [image credit: NSIDC]

Rinks Glacier, West Greenland
[image credit: NSIDC]

A new angle on glaciations perhaps, but HeritageDaily quotes one of the researchers: ‘The mechanism driving these expansions of southern sourced water into the deep Atlantic still needs working on.’

The North Atlantic Ocean played a key role in the last great tipping point in Earth’s climate system, pioneering new research has shown. An international research team has discovered ground-breaking new reasons why large continental ice-sheets first grew in North America and Scandinavia during the late Pliocene Epoch era, 2.7 millions of years ago.


Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Reblogged this from Dr Roy Spencer’s website as he no longer accepts comments. Climate consensus mythology exposed once again.

A George Mason University survey of 4,092 members of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) on climate change attitudes in the meteorological community has just been released.

It shows fairly general acceptance of the view that climate change is happening, that it is at least partly due to humans, and that we can mitigate it somewhat by our energy policies. Fully 37% of those surveyed (including me) consider themselves “expert” in climate science.


Public information?

Public information?

Another attempted US ‘climate cover-up’ has run into legal opposition, as the GWPF reports. This time it’s the ‘more warmth causes more cold’ argument in the firing line. If there’s nothing to hide surely there’s no need to fight?

On January 8, 2014, the White House posted a controversial video claiming that global warming causes more severe winter cold. Called “The Polar Vortex Explained in 2 Minutes,” it featured the director of the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP), claiming that a “growing body of evidence” showed that the “extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States” at the time was “a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues.”


Climate repeats as fractals, say researchers

Posted: March 16, 2016 by oldbrew in climate, research
Frost fractals [image credit: Schnobby - Wikipedia]

Frost fractals [image credit: Schnobby – Wikipedia] has turned up some research with a new way of looking at natural climate variations here.

Climate variations analyzed 5 million years back in time
The key phrase is…

Even though we do not know the climate variations in detail so far back…

But details matter. The media release is below.


Climate variations analyzed 5 million years back in time

When we talk about climate change today, we have to look at what the climate was previously like in order to recognise the natural variations and to be able to distinguish them from the human-induced changes. Researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute have analysed the natural climate variations over the last 12,000 years, during which we have had a warm interglacial period and they have looked back 5 million years to see the major features of the Earth’s climate. The research shows that not only is the weather chaotic, but the Earth’s climate is chaotic and can be difficult to predict. The results are published in the scientific journal, Nature Communications.

The Earth’s climate system is characterised by complex interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, landmasses and the biosphere (parts of the world with plant and animal life). Astronomical factors also play a role in relation to the great changes like the shift between ice ages, which typically lasts about 100,000 years and interglacial periods, which typically last about 10-12,000 years.

Climate repeats as fractals


The Role Of Ozone In The Earth’s Climate

Posted: March 14, 2016 by oldbrew in atmosphere, climate, ozone

Erl Happ explains: To understand how climate evolves we have to comprehend the ‘ozonosphere’.


In the 1920’s the inventor of the Dobson Spectrometer designed to measure ozone in the atmosphere, Gordon Dobson, quickly discovered that total column ozone maps surface pressure. Low pressure cells generated in high latitudes have fewer molecules in the atmospheric column because the upper portion is ozone rich, ozone absorbs infrared radiation from the Earth and the upper air is therefore more rarefied. The reduction in density aloft fully, and in fact over-compensates, for the coldness and density of the air at the surface. By contrast High pressure cells are dense above and relatively less dense below because they originate in the warmer ozone poor mid latitudes.

The ozone content of the air varies on all time scales.

Because the distribution of ozone is a secondary determinant of atmospheric pressure (along with the absorption of radiant energy from the sun as the primary determinant) its distribution is allied to wind…

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Climate science under pressure here [image credit: sourceable]

Climate science under pressure here [image credit: sourceable]

Rumours of a drastic cull of climate scientists in Australia turn out to be true, as the GWPF reports.

It looks like no job is immune to outsourcing, not even climate scientist jobs in Australia. The country’s science bureaucracy is considering having all climate modeling work done in Britain after announcing the firing of some 350 employees, including 100 climate scientists.

Alex Wonhas, executive of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) told Australian lawmakers the science agency “was considering contracting some work to counterparts in the British Met Office,” The Hepburn Advocate reported Wednesday.


Ian Wilson has just blogged this post, which should be a bit of a showstopper in the climate debate, but I expect it’ll be studiously ignored by mainstream climate scientists and lukewarm climate-sceptic blogs. By doing that, they’ll make themselves and their pet CO2 paradigm increasingly irrelevant to scientific progress. Key thing to note is that our work here at the talkshop and in PRP means we can now predict these quasi-cyclic natural variations. Over to Ian.

Abreu et al. [2012] wrote:

“The parameter that best represents the role of the solar magnetic field in deflecting cosmic
rays [and hence, the overall level of solar activity] is the solar modulation potential , which can be derived from either the 10Be or the 14C production rates.”


“….spectral analysis [of the solar modulation potential over the last ~ 9400 years] identifies a number of distinct periodicities (Stuiver & Braziunas 1993), such as 88 yr (Gleissberg), 104 yr, 150 yr, 208 yr (de Vries), 506 yr, 1000 yr (Eddy), and 2200 yr (Hallstatt) [cycles]…”

The top figure in the following diagram shows the Fourier transform of the variation in the solar modulation potential time series over the last 9400 years [Abreu et al. 2012]. This figure shows that potential has distinct spectral peaks at 88 years (Gleissberg Cycle), 104 years, 133 years, 150 years, 210 years (de Vries Cycle), 232 years, 356 years and 504 years.

Below this is a second figure showing amplitude spectrum of variations in the North American temperature time series over the last ~ 7000 years. The temperature time series is obtained from tree ring data obtained from Bristle Cones on the Southern Colorado Plateau [for the details of the source of this data see: Could This Be The Climate Smoking Gun?  and Salzer and Kipfmeuller (2005). The lower figure shows clear spectral peaks at approximately 88, 106, 130, 148, 209, 232, 353 and 500 years.


Climate scientist Ed Hawkins comments on the paper of which he is one of the co-authors. Others include Ben Santer and Michael Mann.

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming ‘slowdown’ or ‘hiatus’, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented in a new commentary in Nature Climate Change by Fyfe et al. contradicts these claims.

How many climate scientists is too many? [image credit: NSIDC]

How many climate scientists is too many?
[image credit: NSIDC]

Thunder Down Under as the boss of some climate scientists dares to reshuffle his resources, shattering false dreams of endless opportunity for a group that seemed to believe it was bulletproof, career-wise. As Jo Nova pointed out, if the science is settled, how much work can there be left to do?

The CSIRO’s chief has told the ABC the backlash from his decision to restructure the organisation has made him feel like an “early climate scientist in the ’70s fighting against the oil lobby” and that there is so much emotion in the debate it almost “sounds more like religion than science”.


Earth and Planetary Science Letters Has an interesting paper in the works. A new proxy informs a model which finds bigger than expected swings in CO2 linked to smaller than expected temperature swings in the past five million years. This indicates that the Earth’s climate system is less sensitive to CO2 levels than previously thought. Maybe they should take more notice of Leaf Stomata calibrations than Antarctic ice cores?


CO2 over the past 5 million years: Continuous simulation and new δ11B-based proxy data

During the past five million yrs, benthic δ18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial–interglacial CO2 variability of 60–100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate.



The new ‘decadal’ forecast, for the next four years, has been put out by the MET-O.


Chapter-9-Cartoon-CaptionH/T to Josh for this story from the Calcutta Telegraph.

New Delhi, Jan. 26:
India’s monsoon is in no danger of catastrophic collapse in response to global warming and air pollution, two atmospheric scientists said today, refuting earlier predictions that the monsoon could shut down within 100 years.

The scientists at Yale University in the US who used computers to model the Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans have found that the expected changes in the monsoon will not abruptly alter their strength or their water volume.

Their results contradict earlier forecasts by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany portending frequent and severe failures and even a breakdown of the monsoon, which is critical to India’s food, water resources and economy.


Commenter ‘USteiner’ asks this question on suggestions 16 and explains the reason for asking.


Let’s put aside the conclusion that CO2 makes the antarctic cool the earth. In the Schmithüsen paper ( they claim to have made the calculation, and it shows that. However, what is new? This had been measured with – gosh – real data some 45 years (!) ago. See here the Nimbus data from 1971 in Fig. 12d ( )

Further, look at Schmitthüsen’s Fig 2. You see the spike on the CO2 pimple at the South pole at a Spectral radiance of 2.5. And exactly at the same level for the US Standard atmosphere. This is at least consistent with an interpretation that CO2 radiates the same everywhere on earth, but becomes only visible, when the background black body radiation from the ground is low enough. And this requirement is fulfilled only at the very cold south pole. So, what is left as excitement?


Climate change: Crisis or Con-job?

Posted: January 1, 2016 by tallbloke in Big Green, climate, Critique, government, Robber Barons


James Delingpole pulls no punches in a new article at Breitbart, part of which I’m reproducing below. Many  in the climate debate try to ‘stick to the science’, to avoid accusations of political bias or motivation. James doesn’t do science, though many think he’s an astute observer of it, and an entertaining, if occasionally over-the-top reporter on the state of the debate.

Global Warming Is Not the Problem. Global Governance Is.
James Delingpole 31:12:2015

To anyone with even half an eye on world events, it’s perfectly obvious that there are many more desperate problems – fundamentalist Islam, say – than the imaginary problem of man-made global warming. So why do our political class persist in pretending to us, in defiance of all the evidence, that “climate change” represents the only global issue serious enough to justify the convening of a conference like the recent one in Paris attended by 40,000 delegates and the leaders of over 150 nation states?

The answer to this is too complicated for one sentence – for the full story read this book – but the consequences can be summed up in two words: global governance.


New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.


Fig 1. Global temperature series from the two satellite datasets. The big El nino events in 1998 and 2010 were both followed by downturns. The 2015 El Nino will also be followed by a downturn in temperature.

Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that  we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.