Archive for September, 2013

From Benny Peiser at the GWPF:

owen-patersonOwen Paterson, Britain’s secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, says effects of global warming could be beneficial. The cabinet minister responsible for fighting the effects of climate change claimed there would be advantages to an increase in temperature predicted by the United Nations including fewer people dying of cold in winter and the growth of certain crops further north. Paterson has long been suspected of being a climate change sceptic. He has previously called for a reduction in the subsidies given to wind farms and other green energy initiatives. Rajeev Syal, The Guardian, 30 September 2013

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Solar cycle antiphase irradiance

Posted: September 29, 2013 by tchannon in Solar physics
Image

Fig. 1. The solar spectral irradiance as inferred from SORCE and TIMED observations only, from 22 April 2004 till 23 July 2010.
(A) shows the average solar spectral irradiance for that period. A black-body model has been used to extend the SSI for wave lengths beyond 1580nm. (B) displays the characteristic altitude of absorption in the Earth’s atmosphere for each wavelength, defined as the altitude at which the optical depth equals one. (C) shows the relative variability (peak to peak/average) for solar cycle variations inferred from measurements obtained between 22 April 2004 and 23 July 2010. Spectral regions, where the variability is in phase with the solar cycle (represented by, e.g. the sunspot number or the TSI) are marked in red, while blue denotes ranges where the variability measured by SORCE is out-of-phase with the solar cycle. These phases, as well as the magnitude of the variability in the UV, are not all reproduced by models and other observations (see Sect. 3 as well as Figs. 2, 7 and 8), and thus should be considered with care. (D) shows the absolute variability, which peaks strongly in the near-UV.

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NowindSep 26 2013 by Stuart Gillespie, Galloway News

Plans for a £38 million windfarm in the Glenkens have been blown away.

Campaigners against the proposed Loch Hill development near Dalry protested outside a meeting of the council in Dumfries yesterday.

And councillors agreed with their concerns, voting against 2020 Renewables’ application for 11 turbines.

Alison Chapman, co-ordinator of Galloway Landscape And Renewable Energy (GLARE), said: “We’re absolutely delighted that the councillors examined the issues and felt the application was not appropriate in the area.

In other relevant news:

Hedigan J granted a protective costs order to applicant wishing to use Section 160 of the Planning and Development Act to prevent alleged unauthorised development at a waste facility close to her home.

Protective costs orders originate from Article 9 of the Aarhus Convention which provides that litigation in certain environmental matters should not be prohibitively expensive.

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The five sages of Mann

Posted: September 27, 2013 by tchannon in humour

5_answers_scr

Or is that sages of Josh the wonderful. Call by at his website and buy a T-shirt or something

Original posted on Bishop Hill

Today is curiously enough the day of 5th columnists report.

No doubt the media will feed off this for some time as will the web. I hate this kind of staged stuff.

Here is a thread to post your thoughts on.

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The IPCC base their claims about how much warming is ‘in the pipeline’ on the rate that carbon dioxide is eventually removed from the atmosphere, the ‘e-folding time’. This is different to the time it takes for any emitted joe-average co2 molecule to be re-absorbed in the carbon cycle, and reflects the assumptions made about the way the carbon cycle operates.

The IPCC relies on the ‘Bern model, which was cooked up many years ago by Bert Bolin and other atmospheric scientists of the warmist persuasion. The Bern model makes assumptions which lead to a very long e-folding time of hundreds of years, a figure which has been disputed by several able researchers, and discussed here at the talkshop in previous posts.

Now talkshop co-blogger Tim Channon has made novel use of data which shows what has happened to the radioactive carbon 14 isotope carrying co2 levels since the atmospheric nuclear bomb tests of the early 1960’s. The results look like another hole below the waterline for the IPCC and the climate alarmists. – tb

Image

Figure 1

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Figure 2

Figures 1 and 2 are demonstrating both northern[1] and southern[2] hemisphere decay from a Dirac injection[3] of a test signal. The consequent effect is very close to perfectly linear, proportionality between pressure and effect of pressure over more than an order of magnitude of data variation (hence linear law). This seems to destroy IPCC claim of a non-simple law. Deviation is <1%

In addition the effect is a simple low pass filter on all kinds of atmospheric carbon dioxide. A later article might cover this in detail.

Note: this article is cross posted from the authors blog, discussion is probably more appropriate on the Talkshop. Some of the content has been the subject of wide discussion around the ‘net but not so far as I know here.  — Tim

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September 2013 Ken Wallis died age 97

Posted: September 25, 2013 by tchannon in Uncategorized

http://www.youtube.com/embed/RQMImcbbI_Y?rel=0

This is how you do it. Video is dated 2011. [Upated at end of article]

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Plenty of argument by assertion and follow up caveats to point and laugh at in this editorial piece from ‘Nature’, which attempts to cover Rajendra Pachauri’s incompetent arse.  No discussion of the 12% rise in co2 since 1990 occurring along with a rise in global temperature five times smaller than their central estimate. About the only thing I like about this editorial is the word they use for the cessation of warming over the last 15 years (expected by the MET office to continue for the next five years at least). Rather than the expectation laden word ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’, they describe the 15 year cessation of global warming as a ‘plateau’.  Plateaux, more often than not, are found at the high points in Geographical relief, rather than partway up a bigger hill.  Look at Tibet for example. A few spiky bits just upwards out of the Tibetan plateau, but they are just brief pinnacles which descend again to the average level. I expect we’ll see a couple of spikes in temperature caused by El Nino events over the next decade which will briefly embolden the warmists, but I also expect the following La Nina events to leave us cooler then before.

Image courtesy of CartoonbyJosh.com

Image courtesy of CartoonbyJosh.com

“greenhouse gases are altering Earth’s climate. No serious politician on the planet can now dispute that.”

“Unfortunately, one thing that has not changed is that scientists cannot say with any certainty what rate of warming might be expected.”

“The IPCC has a crucial role in this process and must remain the central authority on global warming”

“but the current report should be its last mega-assessment.”

More climate models are running increasingly sophisticated calculations, and coordinated experiments are bolstering our understanding of the results.

warming that would result from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is expected to be judged as 1.5–4.5 °C  exactly what it was in the report of 1990.

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greenpeace-pending

Click for story

[UPDATE 6] 

Russian authorities on Thursday completed pressing piracy charges against all 30 people detained aboard a Greenpeace icebreaker that was used in a protest where activists attempted to climb up a Gazprom oil rig in the Arctic.

“The defendants pleaded not guilty and are currently refusing to give relevant testimony,” Russia’s Investigative Committee said on its website. Fourteen of the detainees were charged Wednesday and 16 on Thursday. They face up to 15 years in prison.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20131003/183927995/All-30-Aboard-Greenpeace-Ship-Charged-With-Piracy.html

I cannot find the claimed quote in English on the sledcom website.  (Russia’s Investigative Committee)
Perhaps it takes a few days for translations to be done.

[UPDATE 5]

Greenpeace are reported as telling “at least five of the detainees formally charged with piracy”
http://en.ria.ru/crime/20131002/183898415/Russia-Charges-Greenpeace-Activists-With-Piracy.html

Other news from the Russian outlet , may was well raise a smile, mentions Hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia.
Huh? Never heard of it, real word. Although I once owned an ancient car carrying the number and yes it did disturb some people, never understood myself, just a random number. Neat though if you roll the car, help arrives.
Also an item on clowns everywhere, young biker riding through a Moscow metro station. Darwin invented photographs and video.

[UPDATE 4]

Court order granted, ship searched.
Some details of court sentences, seems to amount to holding for most and more serious for a few.
Putin reported stating didn’t thing was piracy but illegal.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130928/183813401/Russian-Investigators-Start-Inspection-of-Seized-Greenpeace-Ship.html

[UPDATE 3]

Greenpeace Activists Face 2 Months in Russian Jail Pending Charges

Seems things drag slowly in Russia, pending charges.  Story.

Putin remarked it perhaps wasn’t piracy but seems to be keeping out of things.

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Slide from Shariv lecture

Slide from Shariv lecture

Prof. Nir J. Shaviv, who is a member of the Racah Institute of Physics in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. According to PhysicaPlus: “…his research interests cover a wide range of topics in astrophysics, most are related to the application of fluid dynamics, radiation transfer or high energy physics to a wide range of objects – from stars and compact objects to galaxies and the early universe. His studies on the possible relationships between cosmic rays intensity and the Earth’s climate, and the Milky Way’s Spiral Arms and Ice Age Epochs on Earth were widely echoed in the scientific literature, as well as in the general press.” — From Nir’s blog [1]

Nir gave a lecture at EIKE (Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie [2]) January 2013. In the lecture at EIKE he flows through some of what is wrong with IPCC assertions and models, then drops in extraterrestrial, solar wind, galactic cosmic rays, showing some neat plots. Asserts that solar accounts for a major proportion of whatever temperature change has gone on and how IPCC omit critical factors. Models are over-sensitive.

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IPCC models getting mushy

Posted: September 17, 2013 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Ross McKitrick tells it like it is about the models, the IPCC and the failure

Financial Post | Opinion

In the next five years, the global warming paradigm may fall apart if the models prove worthless

There has been a lot of talk lately about the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, and whether it will take into account the lack of warming since the 1990s. Everything you need to know about the dilemma the IPCC faces is summed up in one remarkable graph.

The figure nearby is from the draft version that underwent expert review last winter. It compares climate model simulations of the global average temperature to observations over the post-1990 interval. During this time atmospheric carbon dioxide rose by 12%, from 355 parts per million (ppm) to 396 ppm. The IPCC graph shows that climate models predicted temperatures should have responded by rising somewhere between about 0.2 and 0.9 degrees C over the same period. But the actual temperature change was only about 0.1…

View original post 1,066 more words

THE DAILY MAIL AS GOT HOLD OF A LEAKED COPY OF THE IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORT 5 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS.  David Rose gives us the skinny:

visit http://cartoonsbyjosh.com - and buy a mug or something.

visit http://cartoonsbyjosh.com – and buy a mug or something.

A leaked copy of the world’s most authoritative climate study reveals scientific forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong.

the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that the world has been warming at only just over half the rate claimed by the IPCC in its last assessment,  published in 2007.

Back then, it said that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade – a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer climate models.

But the new report says the true figure since 1951 has been only 0.12C per decade – a rate far below even the lowest computer prediction.

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This finding from NASA opens up the possibility that the rotation rate of stars is linked to the disposition of the mass surrounding them. It discusses proto-planetary discs, but since the mass in that disc ends up concentrated in planets with magnetosphere’s which the Star maintains ‘flux tube’ connections with, the effect never reduces to zero. We have discovered interesting numerical relations between solar rotation rates and planetary orbital periods which indicate such a relationship exists to this day in our own solar system. More on that soon.

spitzer-star-brakes

. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

NASA press release:
Astronomers using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found evidence that dusty disks of planet-forming material tug on and slow down the young, whirling stars they surround.

Young stars are full of energy, spinning around like tops in half a day or less. They would spin even faster, but something puts on the brakes. While scientists had theorized that planet-forming disks might be at least part of the answer, demonstrating this had been hard to do until now.

“We knew that something must be keeping the stars’ speed in check,” said Dr. Luisa Rebull of NASA’s Spitzer Science Center, Pasadena, Calif. “Disks were the most logical answer, but we had to wait for Spitzer to see the disks.”

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My thanks to Tony Thomas for this guest post submission. The mis-education of children with discredited teaching materials is bad enough. To persist with it after being alerted to the problem; unforgivable. We must work hard to eliminate bad science from the curriculum before it leads to the discrediting of the entire scientific endeavour.

Wanted: Remedial education for museum curators
by Tony Thomas : September 13, 2013

Tony Thomas entered this essay “Science museums hotbeds of climate activism” for the 2013 Matt Ridley Prize of £5000 for exposing

These Tolkienian trolls aren't the only ones lurking at Te Papa

These Tolkienian trolls aren’t the only ones lurking at Te Papa

environmental pseudoscience. It made the short-list of ten out of 86 entries worldwide. The organisers commented, “The standard of entries at the top was very high, and there was lively debate among the judges while selecting a winner . The prize was eventually awarded to Michael Ware, for an essay on electric cars.”

Brainwashing of school children about climate change normally goes on out of sight, in the school systems. But you can see it happening publicly by visiting science museums’ displays for students.

The Field Museum in Chicago, for example, is visited by 100,000 students on school tours each year. Other science museums  I’ve sampled in the past two years include Te Papa, New Zealand; The Smithsonian Museum of Natural History, Washington; and the Vienna Museum of Natural History. Same story all over: activism targeted at vulnerable students.

I dropped in to NZ’s premier science museum, Te Papa, Wellington in November 2011. Its climate message was that dangerous global warming is upon us. The proof: a blow-up of Michael Mann’s long-discredited Hockey Stick graph, purporting to reveal millennially-unprecedented warming in the 20th Century.

The Hockey Stick was the poster-child of the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and of Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth movie. But the stick was “busted” in 2003 by the forensic analysis of the McIntyre and McKitrick skeptic duo. In its 2007 report, the IPCC  tagged the hockey stick with  “uncertainty”.[i]

My complaints to Te Papa got a response from scientist Dr Hamish Campbell, who doubled as a Te Papa geologist and curator:

You are perfectly correct: Mann’s ‘hockey stick’ has indeed been substantively discredited.

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spin-orbit-couplings

Sciency looking diagram we don’t know the meaning of because the site is in Chinese

I’m confident that one day in the not too distant future we’ll look back at this post and wonder why we couldn’t see the obvious. But right now this is a total mystery. Oldbrew and I have been looking at the axial rotation ratios between neighbouring planets and planet pairs, with surprising results. Right upfront, we need to point out that these ratios between rotation rates are dimensionless, as are the Fibonacci numbers they relate to.

So this is not mere ‘numerology’, or playing with numbers based on a particular measurement scheme. It doesn’t matter if you calculate rotation rates of planets in Earth minutes, hours, days or years, or the pulses of light from an extragalactic quasar, so long as you use the same units for whichever bodies you are comparing. The result is a ratio, and that will be the same no matter what your yardstick is.

So here is the mystery; all of the rotation rates of the planet pairs in the solar system listed below the break are in ratios where the numbers on each side of the ratio add to a number in the Fibonacci sequence. Clearly, it is possible to get more accurate ratios by going to much higher numbers, but given that the ratios we have determined are all well within 1% of true values, and many within 0.1%, we didn’t see the need. This is such a remarkable result that it really ought to be a wake up call to astrophysicists to start taking an interest in their local solar system, in addition to hunting for exoplanets and galaxies. Since we have found many other phi and Fibonacci relationships in planetary data orbital elements and synodic periods too, the obvious implication of our result is that there is some kind of link between rates of axial rotation and orbital periods. We aim to discover what it is, how it comes about, and ultimately answer the question; Why Phi?

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uksnowice

From the Talkshop’s favourite weatherman at the BBC Paul Hudson comes news of a possible run of colder weather and climate for the UK. This will be no surprise for talkshop regulars, where we have been predicting a solar slowdown for a few 11y cycles since the blog started in 2009. Nice to get some confirming support from Paul and good to see him sticking his neck out on a 20+ year weather prediction.

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

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My thanks to Michele Casati for the Heads-up on this blistering three minute speech by UKIP leader Nigel Farage in the European Parliament. He lambasts EU supremo Jose Manuel Baroso for the stupidity of the Green Agenda pursued by the E.U.’s leadership over the last decade, and the fuel poverty and industrial flight it has caused. Baroso’s following two minute hate is well worth a watch too. In it he claims the scientific consensus on global warming is now up to 99%. It’ll be 104% next year and all targets for the five year plan will have been met…

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I’ve registered my interest in setting up some Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) at mooc.org, Google’s new venture in partnership with edX, the long running MOOC provider partnership of Harvard, MIT and 26 other leading global educational institutions. It offers the possibility of using free services to run courses with interactive learning tools in an educationally supportive environment. Given the complex nature of the material we are dealing with here at the talkshop, I see possibilities for taking advantage of what Google is offering. We could use the collaborative space for holding online conferences with video, whiteboard scratchpads everyone can doodle on for instant sharing of concepts, data etc. I’m wary of Google, but they do some things well, and the wider the audience for our ideas the better. Nothing we do is a secret, we believe in open and collaborative development of ideas, so it all seems to mesh. Ideas, worries and criticisms welcome.

critical-thinking-cartoonThe Conversation has this:

The entrance of Google onto the Massive Open Online Courses market this week has the potential to reignite the spirit of openness that saw these alternative routes into higher education emerge in the first place.

The internet giant is to work with Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on a website calledMooc.org, which will go live next year.

MOOCs have exploded over the past year. With companies likeCoursera teaming up with a number of US universities to offer free online courses and Open University launching FutureLearnto offer an alternative for UK universities, it seems that everyone is frantically scrambling for a MOOC solution.

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ClimategateFictionH/T ‘Grumpy denier’.From the Adam Smith institute:

Written by Alex Singleton | Wednesday 11 September 2013

Parliament’s cushy consensus over climate change is dead. In 2008, when the Climate Change Bill had its third reading in the Commons, only five MPs voted against. But with doomsday predictions failing to materialize, and the planet failing to warm, MPs are starting to get more skeptical.

On Tuesday, in a Commons Westminster Hall debate, the room was overwhelmingly hostile to the Act. One of those MPs who voted for it, David TC Davies, says that the evidence has made him change his mind:

I am sorry that I was not a member of the famous five who voted against the Act in 2008, but I hope I will now do something to put that right. I must confess that I was one of those who accepted the arguments that were made—I supported the Act when it was passed [Of course, part 1 clearly states that the Act is open to amendment if the science changes or if significant developments in science become clear.] I contend that, given what we now know about climate science, we have a strong argument for reconsidering the Act with a view to either revoking it completely or drastically amending it.

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While the WUWTians get in a lather about a DSP modeled forecast of a 1C cooling by 2050, based on a 170yr fundamental period, we should take a cool look at Ian Wilson’s latest work which combines tidal and inertial mass theories of planetary-solar linkage. This model is particularly remarkable for it’s consonance with the periods found in analysis of 14C and 10Be records by Abreu et al 2013. This work also lends weight to the efforts being made at the talkshop to model solar variation using planetary periods. A recent result from R.J. Salvador achieves a 91% correlation with sunspot data since 1749 using Ian’s tidal/torque theory periods along with the Jose cycle period and a possible electromagnetic influence on a 20yr period. In this post, Ian explains the mechanics of the coupling between spin and orbit that enable energy exchanges between planets and Sun which may be affecting solar variability. Neither digital signal processing nor carbon dioxide cause large multidecadal drops in Earth’s surface temperature. That is the domain of Space Weather.
The Gear Effect + the VEJ Tidal Torquing Model = The VEJ Spin-Orbit Coupling Model
by Ian Wilson : 10-9-2013
I. The Gear Effect

Golfers use a physical principle called the Gear Effect to either slice or hook a golf ball off the tee.Figure 1 shows how the Gear Effect works.

If the golf ball hits the (curved) face of the club off-centre, it applies a force (horizontal black arrow) to the club which induces a clock-wise rotation of the club head (green arrow) about its centre-of-mass (bottom right yellow circle with cross-hairs). The resultant rotation of the face of the the club head (red arrow) applies a side-ways force to the golf ball at the point of contact, producing an anti-clockwise rotation (blue arrow) of the golf ball (Note: The ball will roll from the toe (top) towards the centre of the club face). This particular application of the Gear Effect produces a hook shot.
gear

 figure 1

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sunfleavesgridI made an interesting discovery last night about the relationship between the golden ratio, phi, and the famous circularity constant, Pi, which might have a bearing on our investigation of the reasons why the Fibonacci series is exhibited throughout the solar system. It’s well known that many plant species throw off new leaf stems at phi related angles as they grow. It’s thought that this maximises the light the leaves receive. Since Roger Andrews doesn’t believe this actually shows up in plants much, I’ve included the photo of a growing sunflower, as seen on the right. Sure enough, those leaves are popping out at phi angles. You need to follow anticlockwise to see the regularity of the 222.5 degree increments.

phi-rotation-angles

It’s Phi ‘o’ Clock. Time for a break from the planetary data and for a look at some phi basics. When we divide the 360 degrees of the circle by the number phi, we get the angles 222.4922… and 137.5077…

In the solar system, given the abundant sunshine, and tiny planet shadows, the more likely reason for the manifestation of phi and the Fibonacci series is that it is less likely destructive resonances will arise, threatening the stability of orbits, as I’ll show below.

First though, we’ll take a tour of some of the interesting properties of the two leaf arrangement shown on the right above, and gather a few facts which will come in handy later.

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