Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

tallbloke:

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Judy Curry grasps the nettle of the ideological bias that has skewed climate science.

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Judith Curry

The main intellectual fault in all these cases is failing to be responsive to genuine empirical concerns, because doing so would make one’s political point weaker or undermine a cherished ideological perspective. – Heather Douglas

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tallbloke:

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Peter Widdows asks an important question about the EU referendum. What would a vote to stay in entail?

Originally posted on peterwiddows:

One of the key issues in the upcoming referendum will be understanding what we are actually voting for. There have been endless analyses about what a Brexit would mean, so voters should have a reasonable picture of what exit entails, if they avoid the scaremongering and propaganda. However, as yet, nobody has framed what a vote to stay in the EU means.

The stated aim of nearly every member of the EU, and the European Commission, is for “ever-closer political union”, with the ultimate goal of a United States of Europe. Does that mean we are voting to be a part of a federal Europe?

Whether or not the voters think they are giving British politicians a mandate for a federal Europe may not matter, as no government is going to subject itself to a never ending series of referendums, each time a new treaty change is proposed.

To this…

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tallbloke:

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Ron Clutz restates some easily demonstrated truth bout the direction of energy flow from ocean to atmosphere.

Originally posted on Science Matters:

You only have to compare Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from HADSST3 with estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperatures (GMST) from Hadcrut4 and RSS.


This first graph shows how global SST has varied since 1850. There are obvious changepoints where the warming or cooling periods have occurred.

This graph shows in green Hadcrut4 estimates of global surface temperature, including ocean SST, and near surface air temperatures over land. The blue line from RSS tracks lower tropospheric air temperatures measured by satellites, not near the surface but many meters higher. Finally, the red line is again Hadsst3 global SST All lines use 30-year averages to reduce annual noise and display longer term patterns.

Strikingly, SST and GMST are almost synonymous from the beginning until about 1980. Then GMST diverges with more warming than global SST. Satellite TLT shows the same patterns but with less warming than the surface. Curious as to the post 1980s…

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Dam Bureaucrats!

Posted: May 8, 2015 by tchannon in solar system dynamics

tchannon:

Is this on the dam level?

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

ATT000022

Henry P sends me this amusing piece of correspondence!

This is an actual letter sent to a man named Ryan DeVries regarding a pond on his property. It was sent by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Quality, State of Pennsylvania. This guy’s response is hilarious, but read the State’s letter before you get to the response letter, you won’t stop once you start. WOW Love this man.

This is an actual letter:

State of Pennsylvania’s letter to Mr. DeVries:

SUBJECT: DEQ … File No.97-59-0023; T11N; R10W, Sec 20; Lycoming County

Dear Mr. DeVries:

It has come to the attention of the Department of Environmental Quality that there has been recent unauthorized activity on the above referenced parcel of property. You have been certified as the legal landowner and/or contractor who did the following unauthorized activity:

Construction and maintenance of two wood debris dams across the outlet stream…

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tallbloke:

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Paul Homewood with an Antarctic and southern ocean update

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

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http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

Time to take a quick look at the sea ice situation down under, as I must have missed it on BBC News!

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http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

According to NSIDC, a new record high has been set for April, beating last year. Ice is above average virtually all around the continent.

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[Current image of the sun with virtually blank conditions; courtesy NASA/SDO]
The sun is almost completely blank. The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. The sun’s X-ray output has flatlined in recent days and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of strong flares in the next 24 hours. Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.

Dr Roy Spencer has announced the release of the latest version of the UAH temperature data set.

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“By far the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code we have ever produced in over 25 years…”

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Jupiter dominates the solar system

Jupiter dominates the solar system

By far the two largest bodies in our solar system are Jupiter and Saturn. In terms of angular momentum: ‘That of Jupiter contributes the bulk of the Solar System’s angular momentum, 60.3%. Then comes Saturn at 24.5%, Neptune at 7.9%, and Uranus at 5.3%’ (source), leaving only 2% for everything else. Jupiter and Saturn together account for nearly 85% of the total.

The data tell us that for every 21 Jupiter-Saturn (J-S) conjunctions there are 382 Jupiter-Earth (J-E) conjunctions and 403 Saturn-Earth (S-E) conjunctions (21 + 382 = 403).

Since one J-S conjunction moves 117.14703 degrees retrograde from the position of the previous one, the movement of 21 will be 21 x 117.14703 = 2460.0876, or 2460 degrees as a round number.

The nearest multiple of a full rotation of 360 degrees to 2460 is 2520 (= 7 x 360).
Therefore 21 J-S has a net movement of almost 60 degrees (2520 – 2460) from its start position.

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This failed work is presented as a cautionary tale but nevertheless there might be good parts.

Earlier oldbrew published an article on a theory by Nelson on forecasting the armada of radio propagation conditions. There were not many comments, possibly from the lack of solid further material.
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From this paper, we can see why the technique fell at the hurdle. Nevertheless looking at what people were thinking and doing is important.

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Back in 2011. Tim Channon used his cycles analysis software to predict the evolution of the solar polar fields. The basis of the curve he produced is the motion of the gas giant planets, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. As they orbit the Sun, they force the Sun to move relative to the centre of mass of the entire solar system. We see this motion when astronomers look out into the near cosmos and observe other stars ‘wobbling’. By measuring the wobble with respect to time, they are able to deduce the mass and distance of planets orbiting those stars, even though they are too small and dim to see directly.

Tim found that our Sun’s wobble due to the gas giant planets matched the observational data of the evolution of the Solar polar magnetic fields mentioned in the post put up by Stuart ‘Oldbrew‘ yesterday.

Here’s the plot Tim put up in 2011

Evolution of combined solar polar fields (red) vs motion of Sun relative to barycentre caused by planetary motion

At the time, it looked like the data was going to diverge from the prediction, but read on below the break to see the outcome.

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Click on image to enlarge

Click on image to enlarge

The Mars-Earth model is based on 34 Mars orbits. This equates to 64 years, which is 8². Since Venus makes 13 orbits of Earth in 8 years, we can easily add it to the model.
2,3,5,8,13 and 34 are Fibonacci numbers.

The story doesn’t end there, because as the diagram shows this results in a 3:4:7 relationship between the 3 sets of synodic periods. This was analysed in detail in a paper by astrophysicist Ian Wilson, featured at the Talkshop in 2013:

Ian Wilson: Connecting the Planetary Periodicities to Changes in the Earth’s Length of Day

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There seems to be a buzz in the alarmosphere about the gulf stream stopping because emissions. I must admit I don’t have much time to spare at the moment for dealing with the ramped up rhetoric about ‘man made climate change’, but I spotted a typical tweet from Professor Ray Wills which I thought was worth a quick reply.

This is of course, nonsense.

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tallbloke:

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Tony Heller / Steve Goddard has been suspended from twitter because *some people* prefer suppression to debate.

*AKA ‘The usual suspects’.

Originally posted on Twitchy:

Steven Goddard, who has dedicated himself to exposing misleading “science” and fraud in the AGW arena, has a Twitter account that has been suspended:

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi noticed the apparent suspension:

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The model is ~99.78% accurate

The model is ~99.78% accurate


The model is in the diagram, so here’s the explanation.
Divide the orbit period of Venus by that of Mercury:
0.61519726 years / 0.2408467 years = 2.554310522

To get to whole numbers, round the result up to 2.56 then:
2.56 x 5 = 12.8
12.8 x 5 = 64
64 / 25 = 2.56

64 = 8² and 25 = 5²
Therefore the approximate ratio of Mercury:Venus orbit periods is 8²:5².
The number of conjunctions in the period is the difference in orbit numbers:
8² – 5² = 64 – 25 = 39 = 13 x 3

Phi link: 2,3,5,8, and 13 are all Fibonacci numbers.

2.554310522 / 2.56 = 0.99777755~ so the accuracy of the model is around 99.78%.

An even more accurate model would be:
626 Venus = 1599 Mercury.
1599 / 626 = 2.554313 i.e. almost the same as 2.554310522 = the true ratio.

Note that 1600 / 625 = 2.56 which is the same as 8² / 5².
So there’s one more Venus (626) and one less Mercury orbit (1599) in reality, every 385.11 years, compared to our model.

Footnote:
1600 = 8² x 5²
625 = 5² x 5²
(The common 5² is redundant in the ratio, leaving 8²:5²)

18 Inex cycles = 521 years [click to enlarge]

18 Inex cycles = 521 years
[click to enlarge]

In the wake of today’s solar eclipse and following an earlier post on the same topic, we have another perspective on the 521 year period that corresponds exactly to 18 Inex eclipse cycles.

An Inex corresponds to:
358 lunations (synodic months) = 28.94444 years
388.50011 draconic months
30.50011 eclipse years
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inex

This means two Inex = 716 synodic months (358×2) and 777 draconic months (388.5×2).
This period will also be 61 eclipse or draconic years (777 – 716 or 30.5 x 2).

Each number in the diagram (below the top line) is derived from the numbers above it. Note that 18 Inex is the same period as 28 lunar nodal cycles. Both periods end at the lunar node they started at.

We can build on this, first by looking at data from a well-known science paper by Keeling & Whorf titled:
‘The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change’

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Live feed on RT.com http://rt.com/on-air/partial-solar-eclipse-2015/ eclipsenow (more…)

BBC, Tim Palmer & Cyclone Pam

Posted: March 17, 2015 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

h/t Glenwaytown

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On the BBC Today programme yesterday, John Humphrys interviewed Oxford professor Tim Palmer to discuss Cyclone Pam.

Palmer is a Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, and is one of the gang often wheeled out when climate change is discussed on the BBC.

The piece, at around 8.38am, went something like this:

It began with a news update on Vanuatu and extracts from a recorded interview with the country’s president (quite widely reported elsewhere), saying that the cause of the disaster was climate change – rising sea levels etc.

John Humphrys then asked ‘what do the scientists think?’ and interviewed Oxford professor Tim Palmer (a Royal Society Research Fellow), “in charge of modelling and climate change”.

The key quotes were that he said of the recent “incredibly intense” cyclones in Vanuatu and…

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energypricesVia Benny Peiser at the GWPF

The European Union is being outpaced by the rest of the world on business conditions, a trend that hampers the economic recovery and limits future growth, according to a study from employers’ federation BusinessEurope. “In the race to attract global investment, we more than halved our share.” Overall on energy, “we have much higher political costs in Europe,” Beyrer said, citing renewable-energy policies that cause “market distortion” and environmental efforts that are out of sync with global standards. If the rest of the world doesn’t sign on to the EU’s ambitions for reducing emissions targets, he said it may be time for Europe to “discuss our level of ambition” to avoid economic damage. –Rebecca Christie, Bloomberg, 16 March 2015

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tallbloke:

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More ‘Adjustments’ to temperature data that look unjustified.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

Guest Post by Ron Clutz

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tallbloke:

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Oh my. Kevin Trenberth’s ‘Missing heat’ isn’t in the deep oceans, which have cooled since 1992 according to this new paper.

Originally posted on Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations:

…that some of the warming nearer to the surface came from the deep ocean.

The paper is Liang et al. (2015) Vertical Redistribution of Oceanic Heat Content.  The abstract reads (my boldface):

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