Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

See main post for details [image credit: Wikipedia / WolfmanSF]

See main post for details [image credit: Wikipedia / WolfmanSF]


In this extract from Wikipedia we’ve highlighted the relevant part in bold, so without more ado:

Resonances
Styx, Nix, and Hydra are in a 3-body orbital resonance with orbital periods in a ratio of 18:22:33. The ratios are exact when orbital precession is taken into account. This means that in a recurring cycle there are 11 orbits of Styx for every 9 of Nix and 6 of Hydra. Nix and Hydra are in a simple 2:3 resonance. The ratios of synodic periods are such that there are 5 Styx–Hydra conjunctions and 3 Nix–Hydra conjunctions for every 2 conjunctions of Styx and Nix.

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Orcus in blue, Pluto in red, Neptune in grey [credit: Eurocommuter / Wikipedia]

Orcus in blue, Pluto in red, Neptune in grey
[credit: Eurocommuter / Wikipedia]

The ‘anti-Pluto’ label arose from the fact that the orbit of probable dwarf planet Orcus looks like a mirror-image of that of Pluto (as shown above), and is less than three years weeks shorter than Pluto’s 248 years. It also has its own relatively large moon – or binary neighbour – just like Pluto. [More details about the graphic here]

Wikipedia says: 90482 Orcus is a Kuiper belt object with a large moon, Vanth. It was discovered on February 17, 2004 by Michael Brown of Caltech, Chad Trujillo of the Gemini Observatory, and David Rabinowitz of Yale University. Precovery images as early as November 8, 1951 were later identified. It is probably a dwarf planet.

Orcus is a plutino, locked in a 2:3 resonance with Neptune, making two revolutions around the Sun to every three of Neptune’s. This is much like Pluto, except that it is constrained to always be in the opposite phase of its orbit from Pluto: Orcus is at aphelion when Pluto is at perihelion and vice versa.

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Hello Pluto

Posted: July 14, 2015 by Andrew in Astrophysics, solar system dynamics

imageAfter a nine year, three billion mile journey NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft has reached Pluto (more…)

[credit: F.Espenak / NASA]

[credit: F.Espenak / NASA]


NASA: 2004 AND 2012 TRANSITS OF VENUS – Introduction says:
‘Transits of Venus across the disk of the Sun are among the rarest of planetary alignments. Indeed, only six such events have occurred since the invention of the telescope (1631, 1639, 1761, 1769, 1874 and 1882). The next two transits of Venus will occur on 2004 June 08 and 2012 June 06.’

Obviously there are three pairs of transits (eight years apart per pair) shown in the brackets, plus the fourth pair that occurred in 2004 and 2012. The model we use here is structured as per this graphic:
V251_vis

This is where it gets a little bit tricky perhaps.

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Via Benny Peiser at the GWPF
Image courtesy of CartoonbyJosh.com

Image courtesy of CartoonsbyJosh.com

Britain could be on the verge of a mini Ice Age as the Sun enters a cooler phase, the Met Office warned yesterday. The last big chill was felt hundreds of years ago when Frost Fairs were held on the frozen River Thames. However the Met Office said the new freeze will not be enough to cancel out the effects of global warming. Met Office’s Hadley Centre, which looks at long term forecasts, said there was a 15-20 per cent chance that we could match the temperatures last seen in 1645-1715 – sometimes called the Little Ice Age – when the River Thames froze over. –Colin Fernandez, Daily Mail, 24 June 2015
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tchannon:

Paul is seeing stirring in the swamp.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

Are we finally seeing the first signs of commonsense from the MSM, regarding climate change?
Apart from the likes of Booker, Dellers and Rose, there has been little more then the odd whinge about energy bills.

Enter Fraser Nelson of the Spectator, who starts:

When Benedictine monks first arrived to restore Pluscarden Abbey, a beautiful ruin in northeast Scotland, they faced a battle against the elements. It had no roof, let alone heating, and even when restored to its medieval glory it cost a fortune to keep warm. But when I visited last month, I learned that a miracle has happened. A biomass boiler has arrived, tucked away next to the organ, with a subsidy scheme that turns cost into profit. For every £1 spent in woodchip, the monks receive £4 in subsidy. The Lord works in mysterious ways, but nothing is more mysterious than the financing of green energy.

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[image credit: imagineeringezine.com]

[image credit: imagineeringezine.com]

Only two questions are needed here:

(1) What is the period of a Jupiter(J)-Saturn(S)-Earth(E) (JSE) triple conjunction?
JSE = 21 J-S or 382 J-E or 403 S-E conjunctions (21+382 = 403) in 417.166 years (as an average or mean value).

(2) What is the period of a Jupiter(J)-Saturn(S)-Venus(V) (JSV) triple conjunction?
JSV = 13 J-S or 398 J-V or 411 S-V conjunctions (13+398 = 411) in 258.245 years (as an average or mean value).

Since JSV = 13 J-S and JSE = 21 J-S, the ratio of JSV:JSE is 13:21 exactly (in theory).

As these are consecutive Fibonacci numbers, the ratio is almost 1:Phi or the golden ratio.
Golden ratio: relationship to Fibonacci sequence

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Comparison of the eight brightest TNOs [credit: Wikipedia]

Comparison of the eight brightest TNOs [credit: Wikipedia]


As Pluto is getting some media attention due to the impending ‘fly-by’ of a NASA space probe, let’s take a look at its orbital relationship with its neighbours.

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The Lovejoy Meltdown

Posted: June 1, 2015 by oldbrew in solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

oldbrew:

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Tim Cullen analyses the ‘comet that didn’t die’ and gives the Roche limit and other cherished concepts of ‘settled science’ a sharp poke in the ribs.

Originally posted on MalagaBay:

The Lovejoy Meltdown

In December 2011 the mainstream huddled around their computers to watch the fiery death of the Sun grazing Comet Lovejoy [designated C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy)] as it approached perihelion.

But when Comet Lovejoy emerged from the behind the Sun [on its return journey] the mainstream realised they were actually watching the meltdown of Settled Science.

Comet Lovejoy was discovered by Terry Lovejoy on 27th November 2011 and it was subsequently determined to be a member of the Kreutz family of sun grazing comets.

Terry Lovejoy

The Kreutz Sungrazers are a family of sungrazing comets, characterized by orbits taking them extremely close to the Sun at perihelion.

They are believed to be fragments of one large comet that broke up several centuries ago and are named for German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who first demonstrated that they were related.

A Kreutz Sungrazers’s aphelion is about 160 AU from the Sun; these sungrazers make…

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Paul Vaughan has produced a six page .pdf document crammed with the fruits of his research into the ways in which solar variation affects Earth’s climate. Several of the observations and concepts coincide with the work we have been doing here at the talkshop over the last six years to unravel the mysteries of solar system dynamics and their effect on Terrestrial variation. Paul has applied his stats and visualisation skills and thorough approach to referencing, including direct links to data. This has resulted in a landmark document which readers will find both useful and inspiring. It demonstrates the progress that has been made in solar-terrestrial theory, (with hints about the underlying planetary solar relations too).

vaughan-s-t-primer

 

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This repost of Ian Wilson’s Jan 1st article at his Astro-Climate-Connection blog continues development of his hypothesis that the Moon triggers El Nino events. This is relevant as we are currently on the cusp of El Nino, which may develop as the year goes on. Ian predicted El Nino for later this year in a comment here last year, based on his investigations.

The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 – 1963 to 1994
Jan 1st 2015 : Ian Wilson PhD

A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks up into six 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The second 31 year interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 – Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 – 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 – 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 – 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025
The hypothesis that the 31/62 year seasonal tidal cycle plays a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niño events leads one to reasonably expect that tidal effects for the following three epochs:
New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 – Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

Relevant to current discussions on the talkshop concerning changes in Earth’s length of day (LOD) and the effect of planetary orbital resonances on the Moon’s orbital parameters and Earth climatic variation; this is a repost from Ian Wilson’s excellent Astro-Climate-Connection website. Ian very generously opens with a hat tip to this blog, (at which he is one of the ‘collaborators’ he mentions). 

Connecting the Planetary Periodicities to Changes in the Earth’s LOD
Monday, October 14, 2013 : Ian Wilson PhD

[(*) Some of the findings in this blog post concerning the connection between the Earth’s rotation rate and the planetary configurations have also been independently discovered by Rog “Tallbloke” Tattersall and his collaborators]

A. The Connection Between Extreme Pergiean Spring Tides and Long-term Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate as Measured by the Rate-of-Change of its Length-of-Day (LOD). (*)

If you plot the rate of change of the Earth’s Length of Day (LOD) [with the short-term atmospheric component removed] against time [starting in 1962] you find that there is a ~ 6 year periodicity that is phase-locked with the 6 year period that it takes the lunar line-of-nodes  to re-align with the lunar line-of-apse [see the first note directly below and reference [1] for a description of the method used to determine the time rate of change of LOD].

NB: The pro-grade precession of the lunar line-of-apse once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 8.8504 Julian years (J2000) while the retrograde precession of the lunar line-of-apse line-of-nodes once around the Earth with respect to the stars takes 18.6000 Julian years (J2000). Hence, the lunar line-of-apse and the ascending node of the lunar line-of-nodes will realign once every:

(18.6000 x 8.8504) / (18.6000 + 8.8504)  = 5.9969 Julian years

Figure 1

ROC-LOD

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tallbloke:

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Judy Curry grasps the nettle of the ideological bias that has skewed climate science.

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Judith Curry

The main intellectual fault in all these cases is failing to be responsive to genuine empirical concerns, because doing so would make one’s political point weaker or undermine a cherished ideological perspective. – Heather Douglas

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tallbloke:

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Peter Widdows asks an important question about the EU referendum. What would a vote to stay in entail?

Originally posted on peterwiddows:

One of the key issues in the upcoming referendum will be understanding what we are actually voting for. There have been endless analyses about what a Brexit would mean, so voters should have a reasonable picture of what exit entails, if they avoid the scaremongering and propaganda. However, as yet, nobody has framed what a vote to stay in the EU means.

The stated aim of nearly every member of the EU, and the European Commission, is for “ever-closer political union”, with the ultimate goal of a United States of Europe. Does that mean we are voting to be a part of a federal Europe?

Whether or not the voters think they are giving British politicians a mandate for a federal Europe may not matter, as no government is going to subject itself to a never ending series of referendums, each time a new treaty change is proposed.

To this…

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tallbloke:

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Ron Clutz restates some easily demonstrated truth bout the direction of energy flow from ocean to atmosphere.

Originally posted on Science Matters:

You only have to compare Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from HADSST3 with estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperatures (GMST) from Hadcrut4 and RSS.


This first graph shows how global SST has varied since 1850. There are obvious changepoints where the warming or cooling periods have occurred.

This graph shows in green Hadcrut4 estimates of global surface temperature, including ocean SST, and near surface air temperatures over land. The blue line from RSS tracks lower tropospheric air temperatures measured by satellites, not near the surface but many meters higher. Finally, the red line is again Hadsst3 global SST All lines use 30-year averages to reduce annual noise and display longer term patterns.

Strikingly, SST and GMST are almost synonymous from the beginning until about 1980. Then GMST diverges with more warming than global SST. Satellite TLT shows the same patterns but with less warming than the surface. Curious as to the post 1980s…

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Dam Bureaucrats!

Posted: May 8, 2015 by tchannon in solar system dynamics

tchannon:

Is this on the dam level?

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

ATT000022

Henry P sends me this amusing piece of correspondence!

This is an actual letter sent to a man named Ryan DeVries regarding a pond on his property. It was sent by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Quality, State of Pennsylvania. This guy’s response is hilarious, but read the State’s letter before you get to the response letter, you won’t stop once you start. WOW Love this man.

This is an actual letter:

State of Pennsylvania’s letter to Mr. DeVries:

SUBJECT: DEQ … File No.97-59-0023; T11N; R10W, Sec 20; Lycoming County

Dear Mr. DeVries:

It has come to the attention of the Department of Environmental Quality that there has been recent unauthorized activity on the above referenced parcel of property. You have been certified as the legal landowner and/or contractor who did the following unauthorized activity:

Construction and maintenance of two wood debris dams across the outlet stream…

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tallbloke:

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Paul Homewood with an Antarctic and southern ocean update

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

s_extn

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

Time to take a quick look at the sea ice situation down under, as I must have missed it on BBC News!

s_plot

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

According to NSIDC, a new record high has been set for April, beating last year. Ice is above average virtually all around the continent.

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vencore-solar_image
[Current image of the sun with virtually blank conditions; courtesy NASA/SDO]
The sun is almost completely blank. The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. The sun’s X-ray output has flatlined in recent days and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of strong flares in the next 24 hours. Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.

Dr Roy Spencer has announced the release of the latest version of the UAH temperature data set.

image

“By far the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code we have ever produced in over 25 years…”

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Jupiter dominates the solar system

Jupiter dominates the solar system

By far the two largest bodies in our solar system are Jupiter and Saturn. In terms of angular momentum: ‘That of Jupiter contributes the bulk of the Solar System’s angular momentum, 60.3%. Then comes Saturn at 24.5%, Neptune at 7.9%, and Uranus at 5.3%’ (source), leaving only 2% for everything else. Jupiter and Saturn together account for nearly 85% of the total.

The data tell us that for every 21 Jupiter-Saturn (J-S) conjunctions there are 382 Jupiter-Earth (J-E) conjunctions and 403 Saturn-Earth (S-E) conjunctions (21 + 382 = 403).

Since one J-S conjunction moves 117.14703 degrees retrograde from the position of the previous one, the movement of 21 will be 21 x 117.14703 = 2460.0876, or 2460 degrees as a round number.

The nearest multiple of a full rotation of 360 degrees to 2460 is 2520 (= 7 x 360).
Therefore 21 J-S has a net movement of almost 60 degrees (2520 – 2460) from its start position.

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