Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

Quiet sun [image credit: NASA]


Solar variation influencing climate is suddenly plausible, say researchers. Who knew? Well, nearly everyone except climate modellers. Although they still mutter about human influence, the reality of the solar slowdown is starting to bite it seems. If as they suggest ‘A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree’ what might they expect from a ‘stronger sun’?

For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate, reports Phys.org.

Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.
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energy -prices-EU

The institute for Economic Affairs has published a report calling for a reduction in electricity bills.

Brexit provides real opportunity to bring down electricity bills for low-income households

Executive Summary:

  • Electricity charges for households in England and Wales have risen by 50 per cent in real terms since 2001, partly as a result of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  • The decarbonisation policies adopted have been complex and inefficient, and have also been contradicted by other measures such as the reduced rate of VAT imposed on domestic fuel. Emissions reduction objectives could be achieved at much lower cost.
  • The government should phase out the Climate Change Levy, the Energy Company Obligation, the Warm Homes Discount and the Carbon Price Floor.
  • Utility bills should be taxable at the full VAT rate (20 per cent) rather than the reduced rate (5 per cent). Any help to vulnerable households should be in the form of electricity vouchers.
  • If the goal is to reduce emissions, decarbonisation should be undertaken under a single market-based mechanism such as a cap-and-trade scheme or a carbon tax, which would apply to all CO2 emissions.
  • Climate-change policy should be technology-neutral. The government should establish a decarbonisation target and allow energy markets to adjust to it in the most efficient way.

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idle-tweet

 

Here’s an extra verse to add onto Eric’s famous ‘Universe song’

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Alaskan aurora [image credit: NASA]


When they say ‘an as yet unknown driver is causing the problem’ they probably don’t mean a motorist 😉

The leading hypothesis used to explain why the aurora borealis and its southern hemisphere counterpart, the aurora australis, play havoc with global positioning systems has been knocked into a cocked hat, reports Sott.net.

The spectacular auroras are produced when gas particles in the earth’s atmosphere collide with charged particles emitted by the sun. The resulting plasma turbulence has long been assumed to be the reason that the phenomena interfere with Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS).

Now, research led by Biagio Forte of the Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering at the University of Bath in the UK has discovered that the predicted turbulence doesn’t actually exist, meaning that an as yet unknown driver is causing the problem.
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The largest ‘TNOs’

This is about the ‘no-name’ dwarf planet 2007 OR10, which has the unusual property of being 3 times further from the Sun at aphelion (furthest) than at perihelion (nearest).

Everybody gets a moon! With the discovery of a small moon orbiting the third-largest dwarf planet, all the large objects that orbit beyond Neptune now have satellites, reports New Scientist.

Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) spend most or all of their orbits beyond Neptune. Last April, the dwarf planet Makemake became the ninth of the ten TNOs with diameters near or above 1,000 kilometres known to have a moon.

So when dwarf planet 2007 OR10 was found to be rotating more slowly than expected, it was suspected that a moon might be the culprit.
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Andy Shaw has drafted this as a submission the the Govt consultation on energy. Suggestions for improvement welcome.

Worth Arguing For .. it really is.

My submission to the government’s consultation Green Paper on Industrial Strategy.

Questions:

27. What are the most important steps the Government should take to limit energy costs over the long-term?

28. How can we move towards a position in which energy is supplied by competitive markets without the requirement for on-going subsidy?

My submission:

Theresa May’s foreword to the Green paper states “Last summer’s referendum was not simply a vote to leave the European Union, it was an instruction to the Government to change the way our country works – and the people for whom it works – forever.”

The Prime Minister’s spirit is most welcome. It could apply to energy policy, where a bold change in direction and a clear focus is required.

The current ‘trilemma’ of simultaneously finding policies that contribute to meeting climate change targets, guarantee security of supply and minimise energy costs is contradictory and…

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sea-ice

Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca]

H/T GWPF for this article on science daily

Earth has known several mass extinctions over the course of its history. One of the most important happened at the Permian-Triassic boundary 250 million years ago. Over 95% of marine species disappeared and, up until now, scientists have linked this extinction to a significant rise in Earth temperatures. But researchers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), Switzerland, working alongside the University of Zurich, discovered that this extinction took place during a short ice age which preceded the global climate warming. It’s the first time that the various stages of a mass extinction have been accurately understood and that scientists have been able to assess the major role played by volcanic explosions in these climate processes. This research, which can be read in Scientific Reports, completely calls into question the scientific theories regarding these phenomena, founded on the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, and paves the way for a new vision of Earth’s climate history.

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A bust of George Ellery Hale at Palomar Observatory [image credit: Visitor 7 / Wikipedia]

A bust of George Ellery Hale at Palomar Observatory [image credit: Visitor 7 / Wikipedia]


This is an extended re-write of the earlier post on this topic. The purpose is to explain the Jose cycle chart shown below (in blue).
– – –
The Hale cycle is the time taken for solar magnetic polarity to return to its initial state (i.e. two ~11-year cycles: one north, one south), so the two reversals of polarity take around 22 years.
http://www.leif.org/research/Extended-Solar-Cycle.pdf

Estimates of mean solar (Hale) cycle length:
‘Finally, we recover a 22.14-year cycle of the solar dynamo in the framework of a reduced zero-dimensional a-s dynamo model.’ – Stefani et al.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11207-016-0968-0

N. Scafetta re JEV: The 22.14 yr period is very close to the ~22 yr Hale solar magnetic cycle
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.0193.pdf

I. Wilson (2012)
A Planetary Spin-Orbit Coupling Model for Solar Activity
Hence, the basic unit of change in the Sun’s rotation rate (i.e. an increase followed by a decrease) is 2 x 11.07 years = 22.14 years. This is essentially equal to the mean length of the Hale magnetic sunspot cycle of the Sun which is 22.1 +/- 2.0 yrs).
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/planetary-spin-orbit-coupling-model-for.html

The aim here is to link the Hale cycle to the planetary movements of Jupiter and Saturn.
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Proposed path of Planet 9 around the sun with Neptune and several notable TNOs for reference [credit: Wikipedia]

Proposed path of Planet 9 around the sun with Neptune and several notable TNOs for reference [credit: Wikipedia]


Researchers suggest the pair may have got too close to the hypothetical Planet Nine, resulting in their current orbits.

The dynamical properties of these asteroids, observed spectroscopically for the first time using the Gran Telescopio CANARIAS, suggest a possible common origin and give a clue to the existence of a planet beyond Pluto, the so-called ‘Planet Nine’, reports Phys.org.

In the year 2000 the first of a new class of distant solar system objects was discovered, orbiting the Sun at a distance greater than that of Neptune: the “extreme trans Neptunian objects” (ETNOs). Their orbits are very far from the Sun compared with that of the Earth.

We orbit the Sun at a mean distance of one astronomical unit (1 AU which is 150 million kilometres) but the ETNOs orbit at more than 150 AU. To give an idea of how far away they are, Pluto’s orbit is at around 40 AU and its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) is at 30 AU. This discovery marked a turning point in Solar System studies, and up to now, a total of 21 ETNOs have been identified.

Recently, a number of studies have suggested that the dynamical parameters of the ETNOs could be better explained if there were one or more planets with masses several times that of the Earth orbiting the Sun at distances of hundreds of AU.
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Solar system [credit: BBC]

Solar system [credit: BBC]


The details of interest here are:
Jupiter’s orbit period (J): 11.862615 years
Jupiter-Saturn conjunction period (J-S): 19.865036 years (mean value)
Solar Hale cycle (HC): ~22.14 years (estimated mean value)

Looking for a solar-planetary beat frequency (BF):
28 J = 332.15322 years
15 HC = 332.1 years
28 – 15 = 13 = number of beats in the period

Since Jupiter’s orbit period is a known value:
BF (approx.) = 332.15322 / 13 = 25.550247 y

Turning to J-S, consider the ‘Jose cycle‘ of 9 J-S:
9 J-S = 178.78532 y
7 BF = 178.85172 y
The value of BF using J-S known value:
178.78532 / 7 = 25.54076 y

Percent match of the two BF values = > 99.96%

Result – on the basis of the selected Hale cycle period:
Jupiter’s orbit matches the calculated solar-planetary beat frequency in the ratio 28:13.
For the Jose cycle (9 J-S conjunctions) the equivalent ratio is 9:7.
The Hale cycle ratio is 13 BF:15 HC by the above definitions.

Conclusion: this beat frequency connects the three items of interest as described.

(Note: 9 J-S figure updated 14/02/17 due to a typo).

Solar activity [image credit: NASA]

Solar activity [image credit: NASA]


A tough question on the face of it, but the researchers claim to have unearthed a ‘new type of solar event’ based on evidence from one tree (according to this report).
H/T oldmanK

Nagoya, Japan – An international team led by researchers at Nagoya University, along with US and Swiss colleagues, has identified a new type of solar event and dated it to the year 5480 BC; they did this by measuring carbon-14 levels in tree rings, which reflect the effects of cosmic radiation on the atmosphere at the time, as Scienmag reports.

They have also proposed causes of this event, thereby extending knowledge of how the sun behaves. When the activity of the sun changes, it has direct effects on the earth.

For example, when the sun is relatively inactive, the amount of a type of carbon called carbon-14 increases in the earth’s atmosphere. Because carbon in the air is absorbed by trees, carbon-14 levels in tree rings actually reflect solar activity and unusual solar events in the past.

The team took advantage of such a phenomenon by analyzing a specimen from a bristlecone pine tree, a species that can live for thousands of years, to look back deep into the history of the sun.
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HR 8799 system [image credit: Many Worlds]

HR 8799 system [image credit: Many Worlds]


It can’t get much more obvious than this. The report says ‘it’s a one-two-four-eight resonance’ of the orbits of these massive planets, but we find it’s much nearer to 1:2:4:9, with the outer planet taking 450 years for one orbit.

The era of directly imaging exoplanets has only just begun, but the science and viewing pleasures to come are appealingly apparent says Many Worlds.

This evocative movie of four planets more massive than Jupiter orbiting the young star HR 8799 is a composite of sorts, including images taken over seven years at the W.M. Keck observatory in Hawaii. The movie clearly doesn’t show full orbits, which will take many more years to collect.

The closest-in planet circles the star in around 49 years [report incorrectly says 40]; the furthest takes more than 400 years. But as described by Jason Wang,  an astronomy graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley, researchers think that the four planets may well be in resonance with each other.
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Image credit: NASA

Image credit: NASA


From the research paper: ‘We suggest the possibility that the Earth’s atmosphere of billions of years ago may be preserved on the present-day lunar surface.’

A team of researchers affiliated with several institutions in Japan, examining data from that country’s moon-orbiting Kaguya spacecraft, has found evidence of oxygen from Earth’s atmosphere making its way to the surface of the moon for a few days every month, reports Phys.org.

In their paper published in the journal Nature Astronomy, the researchers describe what data from the spacecraft revealed.
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Hurricane Katrina [image credit: NASA]

Hurricane Katrina [image credit: NASA]


Although some climate alarmists contend that CO2-induced global warming will increase the number of hurricanes in the future, the search for such effect on Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone frequency has so far remained elusive, reports CO2 Science.

And with the recent publication of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. (2016), it looks like climate alarmists will have to keep on looking, or accept the likelihood that something other than CO2 is at the helm in moderating Atlantic hurricane frequency.

In their intriguing analysis published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, the four-member research team of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. developed a new database of historical hurricane occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, spanning twenty-six decades over the period 1749 to 2012.
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Saturn and the lunar year

Posted: January 28, 2017 by oldbrew in Maths, solar system dynamics
Tags:

Comparison of Saturn and Earth [image credit: NASA]

Comparison of Saturn and Earth [image credit: NASA]


In a recent post: Sidorenkov and the lunar or tidal year we were looking at the match between tropical years and periods of 13 lunar months (i.e. the lunar, or tidal, year):
353 tropical years = 363 tidal years (where 1 lunar year = 13 lunar tropical months)

Here we want to see if Saturn links to the lunar year.
From the JPL ephemeris [target body: Saturn] we have:
Saturn orbit period = 10755.698 days

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits  chart

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart


From another post we produced a chart [right] based on 85 Saturn orbit periods:
85 x 10755.698 days = 914234.33 days

One tidal year = 13 x 27.321582 days = 355.18056 days
914234.33 / 355.18056 = 2573.9987 tidal years (2574)
So 85 Saturn orbits = 2574 tidal years

Since 2574 is divisible by 6 (= 429) we can use the chart to say:
403 Saturn-Earth conjunctions (S-E) = 429 tidal years
or, dividing by 13:
31 S-E = 33 tidal years
therefore, multiplying by 11:
341 S-E = 353 tropical years = 363 tidal years (the original match, see above)
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The Sun and the gas giant planets  [credit: Wikipedia]

The Sun and the gas giant planets [credit: Wikipedia]


Interesting recent research from Norway on solar-planetary theory introduced by one of the authors, Harald Yndestad.
H/T Tallbloke

The planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune affect irradiation variability from the sun

Published: 20.aug. 2016 New Astronomy

By Harald Yndestad a), og Jan-Erik Solheim b)

a) Norwegian University of Science and Technology Aalesund, Aalesund 6025, Norway
b) Department of Physics and Technology UiT The Arctic, University of Norway, Tromsø 9037, Norway

Highlights
Deterministic periods: Data series of total radiation (TSI) from the sun, has stationary periodic changes over 1000 years.
Cause: The periods are controlled by the four giant planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.
Explanation: There is a mutual gravitation between the sun and the planets that change circulation in Sun’s interior dynamo.
Harmonic periods: Planets periods and combination resonance between periods produces a range of stationary periods from about 11 to 500 years, and more
Impact: The sum of the period affects the sun’s surface and alter the radiation from the sun and climate on Earth.
Historic Climate Change: The identified periods explains known cold climate periods Oort (1010-1030), Wolf (1270-1349), Spurs (1390-1550), Maunder (1640-1720) and Dalton (1790-1820)
Modern climate: We have had a modern maximum period (1940-2015) with radiation.
Prognosis: We are entering a period with less radiation, a “colder” sunny, with a calculated at a minimum of Dalton-level of approximately (2040-2065).

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venus_atm
A wave from pole to pole in the cloud tops that doesn’t move – but then disappears? Another Venus conundrum emerges.

A massive, un-moving structure has been discovered in the upper atmosphere of Venus, reports the IB Times.

Scientists detected the feature with the Jaxa’s Akatsuki spacecraft and they believe it is some sort of gravity wave – although they do not understand how it ended up at the altitude of cloud tops.

The bow-shaped structure was first spotted in December 2015 and a team led by scientists from Rikkyo University in Japan were able to observe it over several days.

It measured 10,000km in length and was brighter and hotter than the surrounding atmosphere. When scientists attempted to observe it again a month later, it had disappeared. The team published their findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.
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Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits  chart

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart

Browsing through some of the PRP papers I came across this at the end of the introduction to R.J. Salvador’s paper – A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr:

Another well-known oscillation found in solar records is
the de Vries cycle of 208 yr (see McCracken et al., 2013).
The frequency of 1253 yr, together with the Jose frequency of
178.8 yr, produces a beat of 208 yr and is used in the model.

Looking back at this Talkshop post from 2014 I wondered if these numbers could be linked to it.

From the chart [top line: ‘2503 E’] I’d suggest the ‘frequency of 1253 years’ could be the half-period of the 2503 year cycle i.e. 1251.5 years, a difference of only 0.0012%.

With the ‘Jose frequency of 178.8 years’ being the mean period of 9 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions (by definition), we see from the chart that 1251.5 years would be 63 J-S, since it’s half the full period of 2503 years or 126 J-S [= 63 * 2].

Therefore the two periods would be in a simple ratio of 1:7.
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Take that [credit: universetoday.com]

Take that [credit: universetoday.com]


It seems that there’s always another Moon theory, or variation of an existing one, in the pipeline and here’s one of the newest contenders. Each seems to have its own issues though.

The most widely accepted theory about how the Moon formed has been challenged, with scientists saying a series of large impacts – rather than one giant collision – created our natural satellite, reports the IB Times.

By running numerical simulations, researchers say the Earth being hit by several large planetary bodies would help explain why our planet and the Moon are largely composed of the same material – a problem that has plagued scientists for decades.

The giant impact Moon formation theory was first proposed in the mid-1970s. It says a Mars-sized protoplanet called Theia smashed into Earth around 4.5 billion years ago. The ejected material created a disk of debris, molten rock and gas that eventually condensed to form the Moon.

However, there is a big problem with this theory. If it was correct, the Moon’s composition should be a mix of both Earth and Theia. For this to happen, Theia would have had to be almost identical to Earth in terms of its composition, which is highly unlikely.
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All the signs are that a lot will happen in a short time as soon as the new US President takes over later this month.

Friends of Science Calgary

Guest post by Dr. Tim Ball ©2017

Many people, including my wife, ask why I continue to fight for the truth about the greatest deception in history, the claim that humans are causing global warming. The answer is simple; I don’t want any politician to be able to say they weren’t told. I have written a multitude of articles in every medium possible, published books, done countless radio and TV interviews, and given hundreds of public lectures. It is in the record and readily available with the simplest of Internet searches. If they didn’t know, they didn’t look very hard or were deliberately selective.

Despite that, there were times when I questioned the efficacy of my actions. This was brought home recently when in one of the many Internet interviews I do with students around the world a young woman asked if, in retrospect, I would follow the same path…

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