Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

Blackout_britain

Courtesy of Josh 

From The Telegraph:

Sainsbury’s has cast doubt on the UK’s ability to keep the lights on, revealing it has built a string of new power plants for its supermarkets in part due to fears of a looming energy crunch.

Paul Crewe, a senior executive at the supermarket giant, said he had sleepless nights over energy security and feared UK electricity demand could soon outstrip supply.

The new gas-fired power generators – already supplying electricity for 10 supermarkets, and due to be built at a further six this year – would enable the stores to keep trading even in the event of a blackout, he said.

“It gives us energy security,” Mr Crewe said. “Energy security is extremely important, it keeps me awake at night if I’m honest thinking about it – especially as we use just under one per cent of power in the UK. We know UK grid infrastructure is at an extremely stretching period of time.”

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carboncreditcertificateFrom France24.com H/T Alan Poirier.

The trial of 12 people accused of involvement in a multi-billion euro carbon-trading fraud opened in Paris on Monday, in a case that has been described by French authorities as “the heist of a century”.

Shady deals, offshore accounts, money laundering… The trial has all the hallmarks of a crime thriller and comes nearly seven years after French authorities cracked down on a carbon-trading scheme that cost the European Union €5 billion – including €1.6 billion in France – according to Europol.

The case dates back to October 2008, around the same time the European Commission introduced phase two of its EU emissions trading system (EU ETS), which was designed to combat climate change by reducing greenhouse gases.

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Today, we’ve been warned by the new ‘gang of four’, Ed Miliband, Liz Truss, Potato Ed Davey  and the Brighton Elf, that Earth will be endangered by #Brexit from the EU.

At the same time, Greenpeas have released some leaked TTIP negotiation documents which they warn us will (you guessed it), endanger the Earth if this EU/US treaty is signed.

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wpid-PRP-Censured.jpgA new paper is in the works from a group of mainstream solar physics theorists who work with dynamo models. It explores the possibility that the Sun’s dynamo is modulated by planetary motion – something we’ve been working on here at the talkshop for the last six years. It finds that the gravitational interaction of the motions of Venus, Earth and Jupiter (VEJ) could be involved with both the 11.07 and 22.14 Schwabe and Hale solar cycles.

I’m not going to post the paper yet, as it is still undergoing peer review at a major journal, but I thought it would be fun to provide a teaser. Here’s part of the bibliography. If you look at the top and bottom references, they are to papers by Nicola Scafetta and  Ian Wilson which were published in our special edition of Pattern Recognition in Physics at the end of 2013.

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sun-planetFrom Science Nordic:

The Sun regularly, spews out solar flares–violent explosions that hurl enormous amounts of plasma into space, disrupting satellites and causing power failures here on Earth.

But these outbreaks are still small compared with the gigantic eruptions on other stars. These so-called ‘superflares’ can be up to 10,000 times bigger than the largest solar flares from our own sun.

Now new research suggests that our sun might be capable of forming similarly large superflares every 1000 years, and this could have devastating consequences, says lead-author Christoffer Karoff, from the Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University, Denmark.

“We know that these electrical particles from the Sun destroy the ozone layer. It’s suggested that the major flares that we know of led to a reduction in the ozone layer of five per cent. But no one really knows what will happen at this [superflare] level,” says Karoff.

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Ultraviolet image of Venus' clouds [credit: NASA]

Ultraviolet image of Venus’ clouds [credit: NASA]


Is it the cloud cover or the enormous atmospheric pressure at the surface that makes Venus hot? Whatever, it seems the poles are colder than Earth, and by a wide margin, as Astronomy.com reports. Models based on a ‘greenhouse effect’ weren’t expecting this.

Thanks to a thick layer of cloud cover trapping in heat, Venus is the hottest planet in our solar system, with temperatures boiling over at 850 degrees Fahrenheit (454 C). But in a study published last week in Nature Physics, the European Space Agency found something surprising at the planet’s poles: temperatures more frigid than anywhere on Earth.

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Image credit: NASA

Image credit: NASA


Note from the author: I am sending you my new paper. It has been just published.

Scafetta, N.: High resolution coherence analysis between planetary and climate oscillations.
Advances in Space Research 57, 2121-2135, 2016.
DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2016.02.029

To help access and share the article, there is the following article link, which will provide free access to the article until June 9, 2016.
http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1SvYs~6OiTa4q

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CJDn01bXAAAH8xhEd Hoskins writes:

I am an ex-pat in France. In spite of the mess its likely to cause me directly I am 100% for Brexit.

The EU has far exceeded the mandate I and many others throughout the UK and Europe gave it from 1975 onwards.

The crazy thing is that the “Common Market” that was sold to the unwitting people of Europe in 1975 was all that needed to maintain peace in Europe.  The European peoples were duped because the real unifying intent of the EU project was never disclosed.

It is overweening and vain political ambition of “ever closer union” that has destroyed that the laudable aim of a real “Common Market”.

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Still hiding the decline. They never learn.

Climate Audit

In the past few weeks, I’ve been re-examining the long-standing dispute over the discrepancy between models and observations in the tropical troposphere.  My interest was prompted in part by Gavin Schmidt’s recent attack on a graphic used by John Christy in numerous presentations (see recent discussion here by Judy Curry).   christy_comparison_2015Schmidt made the sort of offensive allegations that he makes far too often:

@curryja use of Christy’s misleading graph instead is the sign of partisan not a scientist. YMMV. tweet;

@curryja Hey, if you think it’s fine to hide uncertainties, error bars & exaggerate differences to make political points, go right ahead.  tweet.

As a result, Curry decided not to use Christy’s graphic in her recent presentation to a congressional committee.  In today’s post, I’ll examine the validity (or lack) of Schmidt’s critique.

Schmidt’s primary dispute, as best as I can understand it, was about…

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Using satellite data on how water moves around Earth, NASA scientists have solved two mysteries about wobbles in the planet’s rotation — one new and one more than a century old. The research may help improve our knowledge of past and future climate.

Although a desktop globe always spins smoothly around the axis running through its north and south poles, a real planet wobbles. Earth’s spin axis drifts slowly around the poles; the farthest away it has wobbled since observations began is 37 feet (12 meters). These wobbles don’t affect our daily life, but they must be taken into account to get accurate results from GPS, Earth-observing satellites and observatories on the ground.

In a paper published today in Science Advances, Surendra Adhikari and Erik Ivins of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, researched how the movement of water around the world contributes to Earth’s rotational wobbles. Earlier studies have pinpointed many connections between processes on Earth’s surface or interior and our planet’s wandering ways. For example, Earth’s mantle is still readjusting to the loss of ice on North America after the last ice age, and the reduced mass beneath that continent pulls the spin axis toward Canada at the rate of a few inches each year. But some motions are still puzzling.

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Earth from the Moon [image credit: NASA]

Earth from the Moon [image credit: NASA]


ScienceDaily points to new research saying ‘We suggest the Moon as a necessary ingredient to sustain the Earth’s magnetic field’.

They believe ‘The Earth continuously receives 3,700 billion watts of power through the transfer of the gravitational and rotational energy of the Earth-Moon-Sun system’.

The Earth’s magnetic field permanently protects us from the charged particles and radiation that originate in the Sun.

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R.J. Salvador has sent in an update showing the performance of his LOD model, which is based on our solar system dynamics theory. He tells us that:

Below is an update of the comparison of actual LOD data to the LOD model prediction from December 1st 2015 to March 1st 2016. The actual data tracks well to the model prediction. There is a deviation from the model from around January 1st to January 12 that is within 2 sigma and then the actual data tracks the model prediction again. I wonder what caused that? I will update the comparison again in two months. So far it is looking good.

LOD model March 1 update_zpsinkh9hbf

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The hunt for 'Planet 9' [image credit: Caltech]

The hunt for ‘Planet 9’ [image credit: Caltech]

Still no guarantee that such a planet exists, but the signs seem promising.
H/T Daily Mail Online

Since its discovery at the beginning of this year, the mysterious ‘Planet Nine’ has had scientists looking for the signs that could confirm its existence.

Now, astronomer Mike Brown of Caltech, one of the scientists behind the January announcement, claims he’s found further evidence to support it. The giant hidden planet is thought to sit on the edge of our solar system and is 10 times more massive than the Earth, gaseous, and similar to Uranus or Neptune.

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turbine-failRepost from Stop These Things

The Germans went into wind power harder and faster than anyone else – and the cost of doing so is catching up with a vengeance.

The subsidies have been colossal and the impacts on the electricity market chaotic.

Some 800,000 German homes have been disconnected from the grid – victims of what is euphemistically called “fuel poverty”. Power starved Germans, instead of freezing, grabbed their axes and tramped into their forests to improve their sense of energy security – although foresters apparently take the view that this self-help measure is nothing more than blatant timber theft (see our post here).

German manufacturers – and other energy intensive industries – faced with escalating power bills are packing up and heading to the USA – where power prices are 1/3 of Germany’s (see our posts here and hereand here). And the “green” dream of creating thousands of jobs in the wind industry has turned out to be just that: a dream (see our post here).

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Pluto's non-standard orbit [credit: Wikipedia]

Pluto’s non-standard orbit [credit: Wikipedia]

‘Pluto’s orbital period is 248 Earth years. Its orbital characteristics are substantially different from those of the planets, which follow nearly circular orbits around the Sun close to a flat reference plane called the ecliptic. In contrast, Pluto’s orbit is moderately inclined relative to the ecliptic (over 17°) and moderately eccentric (elliptical). This eccentricity means a small region of Pluto’s orbit lies nearer the Sun than Neptune’s.’ – Wikipedia

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Jupiter [image credit: NASA]

Jupiter [image credit: NASA]


Interesting electrical phenomena occurring on Jupiter. When they say things like ‘countless magnetic objects across the galaxy’ they don’t mention that magnetism derives from electricity. The solar wind itself is a stream of charged particles.

Solar storms trigger Jupiter’s intense ‘Northern Lights’ by generating a new X-ray aurora that is eight times brighter than normal and hundreds of times more energetic than Earth’s aurora borealis, finds new UCL-led research using NASA’s Chandra X-Ray Observatory. It is the first time that Jupiter’s X-ray aurora has been studied when a giant storm from the Sun has arrived at the planet.

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Open Letter to Sir John

Posted: March 21, 2016 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Wise words from an experienced politician

Roger Helmer MEP

santa pod

He stands with the Union Jack.  But is he campaigning for Brussels?

Dear Sir John,

I am sure you will remember the memorable night in Huntingdon — in 1978 I think — when I had the privilege of voting for you as the Conservative Candidate for the Huntingdon Constituency.  I believe we have met once or twice since.

I have just read your piece in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph, and it is such a litany of old, tired and discredited clichés, and slogans from years ago, that I really have to take issue with some of your points.

“Reckless to divorce ourselves from the world’s pre-eminent trading block”.  Pre-eminent?  The only major economic area in the world in long term relative decline?  Shouldn’t we be looking outward to the rest of the world (including the Anglosphere and the Commonwealth) where the growth and the opportunities are?  And who said “divorce”? …

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EU Renewable Energy Stats

Posted: March 20, 2016 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Renewable generation still within levels which won’t destabilise grids. More than double this 4% figure spells trouble.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

I looked at the EU’s progress in cutting GHG emissions the other day. Let’s now take a closer look at renewable energy stats.

All figures are from the BP Energy Review.

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As far as wind power is concerned, the UK sits 7th on the list, with 3.8%.

As for solar, unsurprisingly it is the Mediterranean states leading the way.

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Across the EU as a whole, including the seven smaller states not show above, solar/wind power accounted for 4.8% of Primary Energy Consumption in 2014. In the UK, this figure was 4.3%.

Bear this in mind when the renewables industry, greenies and others say we are not pulling our weight.

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EU REFERENDUM: WHO SPEAKS FOR YOU?

Posted: March 17, 2016 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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The Moray Mint cuts to the dark heart of the matter. Our political class are deceiving us and her majesty’s opposition are absent, or suppressed.

Moraymint Chatter

Juncker Lie-1Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission

Post # 1-of-4 on the subject of the UK’s EU Referendum: how will you decide which way to vote?         A Punter’s Guide.

Who Speaks for You?

Hello and welcome to Moraymint Chatter.  I’m assuming you’re here because you saw the notice I placed in The Northern Scot newspaper this week.  In any case, thanks for looking in.  As my Northern Scot notice implies, democracy in Moray has gone a bit pear shaped when it comes to the debate about whether the UK should ‘Remain’ in the European Union, or ‘Leave’ the Union.  The political class in Moray in particular, and in Scotland as a whole – the Scottish Nationalists, the Tories, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, The Green Party – have all decided to coalesce around a predetermined view: the UK will be better off remaining in the…

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josh-Ed_Lemmings_scr

From the Grauniad

The UK will enshrine in law a long-term goal of reducing its carbon emissions to zero, as called for in last year’s historic Paris climate deal.

Responding to former Labour leader Ed Miliband’s call to put the target into law, energy minister Andrea Leadsom told parliament on Monday: “The government believes that we will need to take the step of enshrining the Paris goal for net zero emissions in UK law. The question is not whether but how we do it.”

The UK is already legally bound by the Climate Change Act to reduce emissions 80% by 2050, but a law mandating a 100% cut would mark a dramatic increase in ambition. The final 20% is seen as the most difficult to cut, as it would have to come from sectors such as farming, which are not as easy to decarbonise as power plants.

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