Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

Paris gets the party started #COP21

Posted: November 29, 2015 by Andrew in alarmism, solar system dynamics

imageThe latest last chance to save the world has begun, with just 200+ arrests so far. (more…)

In an almost unbelievable display of ignorance or deliberate deception, the BBC on one of its climate alarm pages, links loss of Arctic sea ice to sea level rise. Do they really not understand that floating ice doesn’t change sea level when it melts? Archimedes principle has been around for a couple of thousand years, but it seems the science illiterates at the BBC skipped this class in school.




The alternative climate conference to COP21 in Paris this year is the Paris Climate Challenge, organised by Tom Harris of the International Climate Science Coalition and Philip Foster, author of several books on climate.

The Schedule has been finalised:

Challenging the groupthink of COP21

Stuart Agnew, Bob Carter, Piers Corbyn, Ed Flaherty, Philip Foster, Roger Helmer, Tom Harris, Donna Laframboise, Viscount Monckton, Patrick Moore, Nils-Axel Mörner, Ian Plimer, [Murry Salby], Roger Tattersall & more …  tba

If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking. – Gen. George Patton

Schedule @ 11 rue La Rochefoucauld 75009 Paris


10am Coffee/refreshments

10.30am start


My thanks to Per Strandberg for this update on his ENSO modelling effort. This is looking good, and is based on a neural network which uses lunar and solar data for its input.


There are two main drivers of ENSO. ENSO stands for El Niño Southern oscillation and is Earth’s most influential weather phenomena after seasonal changes. When ENSO changes it causes changes in currents and of temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The most important ENSO driver is linked to variations in gravitational tidal forcing associated with Moon’s Perigee. Moon is in what is called Perigee, when the Moon is at it closest point during its elliptical orbit around Earth. This is also when the tidal force caused by the Moon is at its strongest.

The second most important forcing is linked to variation in solar activity.


Io, Europa and Ganymede - three of Jupiter's four Galilean moons

Io, Europa and Ganymede – three of Jupiter’s four Galilean moons

The resonance of three of the four Galilean moons of Jupiter is well-known. Or is it?

We’re usually told there’s a 1:2:4 orbital ratio between Ganymede, Europa and Io, but while this is not far from the truth, a closer look shows something else.


Two bits of good news from the Autumn statement:

Firstly: Ministers have axed the planned £1bn competition to help develop carbon capture and storage – the technology that the fossil fuel industry hoped would help it drastically cut its carbon emissions.

Companies such as the oil giant Shell had hoped to secure hundreds of millions of pounds’ worth of government funding to help develop the technology, which involves trapping the carbon dioxide produced by power stations, trapping it and storing it deep underground before it can reach the atmosphere, writes Kiran Stacey.


Originally posted on Real Science:

Gavin and Tom delivered their fraud right on schedule ahead of Paris, just as I predicted they would. They claim that October had the highest temperature anomaly ever recorded for any month.


2015-11-19-03-26-13Record-crushing October keeps Earth on track for hottest year in 2015 – The Washington Post

Somehow, they managed to calculate Earth’s temperature within 0.01 degrees – even though they had no temperature data for about half of the land surface, including none in Greenland and very little in Africa or Antarctica.


201510.gif (990×765)

This kind of mind-blowing malfeasance would get them fired and probably escorted out of the building by security at many engineering companies.

Satellites cover almost the entire planet several times a day, and they showed that October had only the 25th highest monthly anomaly, and that every month in 1998 had a higher anomaly than October 2015.


Not only do NASA and NOAA make up…

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Strange orbits of some outer solar system bodies

Strange orbits of some outer solar system bodies

A newly found object may set a new record for the most distant dwarf planet in the solar system. The object, called V774104, lies about nine and a half billion miles from the sun, or two to three times farther away than Pluto.

V774104 is a little less than half Pluto’s size, and like Pluto it may move closer toward or farther away from the sun during its orbit, but those details of its motion cannot yet be determined.

“That’s pretty much all we know about it. We don’t know its orbit yet because we only just discovered it about two weeks ago,” astronomer Scott Sheppard, of the Carnegie Institution for Science and one of the co-discoverers of the new object, said in an interview with .


I’m presenting the Doctoral thesis written by Harald Yndestad for his degree as Doctor of Philosophy at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. This work is highly relevant to our investigation of the effect of Lunar cycles on climatic variation.

The Lunar nodal cycle influence on the Barents Sea
Harald Yndestad
Submitted to Norwegian University of Science and Technology for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Industrial Ecology and Technology Management
Norwegian University of Science and Technology


The research for this thesis began in 1996. The purpose was to confirm or reject the hypothesis that the life history of Northeast Arctic cod can be explained as a stationary cycle in a time series. I was rector at Aalesund University College from 1997 to 2000 and my research had to wait. In 2000 and 2001 I developed dynamic models for the most important species in the Barents Sea. The results supported the analysis from my first investigations. The next step was to look for the missing link between the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and the identified cycles in the Barents Sea. In 2001 I started to develop new methods to analyze climate indicators. The result was the Arctic Oscillation system theory. Wavelet analysis showed promising results and I started to analyze the biomass time series using the same analysis methods. This opened the possibility of a unified theory to explain the results from all time series.


Gyroscope_precessionHat tip to Talkshop contributor ‘OldmanK’ for alerting us to an interesting website written by physicist Carl Johnson some years ago. Among the many interesting articles, there are a few on gyroscopes and the angular momentum of precession which directly relate to our study of solar system organisation, and which provide clues as to how the energy transfer which organises the stability of the orbits occurs. I have a hunch that this can potentially lead to several advances for us, in understanding the relations not only of orbital periods and their effects on neighbouring orbits, but also of orbit to spin-rate energy transfers. This will help unlock the mysterious numerical ‘coincidences’ Stuart and I have discovered between planetary rotation rates and their neighbours orbital rates. It may also further our understanding of correlations I discovered between Z-axis motion of the Sun relative to the centre of mass of the solar system and sunspot production, and changes in Earth’s length of day.

It will also help us understand why the important Z-axis discovery recently made by Paul Vaughan is Geo-effective, as evidenced by the appearance of the relevant periods in paleo-proxy records. As Paul points out, the implication is that two key cyclic periods, the Gleissberg and De Vries cycles, may be more to do with Earth’s orientation variations caused by Gas giant motion than solar activity variation, though it’s possible both are involved in the climate changes indicated by the proxies. This would be because the gas giant planets affect the Sun as well as the Earth directly.



Interesting empirical evidence from the sunny Mediterranean points to geo-effective lunar cycles altering tidal ranges.

Originally posted on MalagaBay:

A Mediterranean Mystery

The waters of the Mediterranean are relatively calm and on a still day the sea at my favourite beach [Almayate – which is close to Malaga, Spain] can be as calm a millpond.

The tidal range at Almayate is [as Wikipedia states] very limited.

Being nearly landlocked affects conditions in the Mediterranean Sea: for instance, tides are very limited as a result of the narrow connection with the Atlantic Ocean.

The Mediterranean is characterised and immediately recognised by its deep blue colour.

The sea currents at Almayate are also fairly benign.

Evaporation greatly exceeds precipitation and river runoff in the Mediterranean, a fact that is central to the water circulation within the basin.

Evaporation is especially high in its eastern half, causing the water level to decrease and salinity to increase eastward.

The salinity at 5 m depth is 3.8%.

The pressure gradient pushes relatively cool, low-salinity water from…

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Judy Curry has concerns about political agendas interfering with scientific objectivity.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood


Judith Curry has this guest post on Fox News:

The hottest topic in climate research is the observation that global average surface temperature, as well as satellite observations of temperatures in the atmosphere, has shown little or no warming during the 21st century.

Now the political climate is heating up over the same issue. Heated words began circulating last summer, when a team of government scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), led by Thomas Karl, published a paper in Science titled “Possible Artifacts Of Data Biases In The Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus.”

The press release from NOAA included this statement from Karl, who is head of the National Centers for Environmental Information: “Adding in the last two years of global surface temperature data and other improvements in the quality of the observed record provide evidence that contradict the notion of a hiatus…

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Uh-oh… Oreskes alert…

Originally posted on Shub Niggurath Climate:

Picture this.

You are a scientist. You wake up one morning and go:

“Why don’t I write a letter to the US Attorney General asking her to throw fossil fuel companies in jail under the RICO act?

It would be my civic deed for the day”.

Sounds plausible?

No it doesn’t. Climate scientists have a penchant for signing activist letters. But letters pushing legal advice to an Attorney General recommending prosecution of opponents?

So where do these strange ideas come from?

Step forward ‘Climate Accountability Institute’

The Climate Accountability Institute (CAI) is a small front attempting to marry ‘climate concerns’ to environmentalism and tobacco prohibitionist tactics. But ‘small’ is a relative term in the climate activist world.

In 2012 the CAI held a ‘workshop’ in La Jolla California. It was ‘conceived’ by Naomi Oreskes and others, and called ‘Establishing Accountability for Climate Change Damages: Lessons from Tobacco Control.’ Stanton Glantz, a prominent…

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Reposted from Ian Wilson’s Astro-Climate Connection blog.

PART B: A Mechanism for the Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation 
PART A: Evidence for a Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation

A. Brief Summary of the Main Conclusions of Part A.

Evidence was presented in Part A  to show that the solar explanation for the Quasi-Decadal and Bi-Decadal Oscillations was essentially untenable. It was concluded that the lunar tidal explanation was by far the most probable explanation for both features.

In addition, it was concluded that observed variations in the historical world monthly temperature anomalies data were most likely determined by factors that control the long-term variations in the ENSO phenomenon.

Further evidence was presented in Part A to support the claim that the ENSO climate phenomenon was being primarily driven by variations in the long-term luni-solar tidal cycles, leading to the possibility that variations in the luni-solar tides are responsible for the observed variations in the historical world monthly temperature anomaly data.



Donna Laframboise on the legal eagles who want to settle the climate debate with a court ruling.

Originally posted on Big Picture News, Informed Analysis:

A British academic wants an international court to declare climate skeptics wrong, once and for all.

Sands’ presentation begins 9 minutes in and ends shortly past 56 minutes

Last week, a three-day conference took place in the UK attended by a “key group of the world’s leading judges, lawyers and legal academics.” Pompously titled Adjudicating the Future: Climate Change and the Rule of Law, its Twitter hashtag was #ClimateCourts. Some of its events were held in the very room in which UK Supreme Court decisions are delivered.

The Supreme Court has a YouTube channel where you can watch law professor Philippe Sands argue, at that conference, that the International Court of Justice (which he describes as “the principal judicial organ of the United Nations”) has two choices: “consign itself to irrelevance” or join the fight against climate change.

I always thought a court was supposed to…

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Rather than squandering billions of public money on climate chimaeras, our governments need to be taking solar scientists more seriously when they warn that electronic infrastructure will be heavily damaged the next time the Sun lets go of a big flare in our direction. Making our logistics, transport and power systems more resilient to a really big solar storm should be a priority, given the consequences.

solarflarepicSolar storms and the particles they release result in spectacular phenomena such as auroras, but they can also pose a serious risk to our society. In extreme cases they have caused major power outages, and they could also lead to breakdowns of satellites and communication systems. According to a study published today in Nature Communications, solar storms could be much more powerful than previously assumed. Researchers at Lund University in Sweden have now confirmed that Earth was hit by two extreme solar storms more than 1,000 years ago.

“If such enormous solar storms would hit Earth today, they could have devastating effects on our power supply, satellites and communication systems,” says Raimund Muscheler at the Department of Geology, Lund University.



Donna Laframboise uncovers another shady UN outfit connected closely to the IPCC

Originally posted on Big Picture News, Informed Analysis:

The man now in charge at the IPCC belongs to a privileged, protected, secretive entity headed by the UN’s former top climate official.

GGGI_Hoesung_Leeclick for source

When Hoesung Lee was elected head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently, the Seoul-based Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) issued a celebratory press release. Lee – who hails from South Korea – has a seat on one of the GGGI’s governing bodies.

But this little-known entity is no mere institute. In fact, it’s another creature of the United Nations. As a headline on the GGGI website makes clear, an international treaty was required to bring it into existence. Membership is restricted to UN-recognized countries. Its stated purpose is “the successful outcome of the United Nations process on sustainable development.” Its Director-General, Yvo de Boer, used to be the UN’s top climate official.

GGGI appears to have…

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Impact [image credit:]

Impact [image credit:]

Another puzzle for planetary cycle researchers to ponder, as this report explains.

Mass extinctions occurring over the past 260 million years were likely caused by comet and asteroid showers, scientists conclude in a new study published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. For more than 30 years, scientists have argued about a controversial hypothesis relating to periodic mass extinctions and impact craters—caused by comet and asteroid showers—on Earth.

In their MNRAS paper, Michael Rampino, a New York University geologist, and Ken Caldeira, a scientist in the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology, offer new support linking the age of these craters with recurring mass extinctions of life, including the demise of dinosaurs. Specifically, they show a cyclical pattern over the studied period, with both impact craters and extinction events taking place every 26 million years.



A couple of years ago I made my original discovery that all the planets of the solar system are connected by golden section or phi relationships between their orbits, spin rates, conjunction periods and conjunction cycle precession periods and expressed in the Fibonacci series. I’ve been searching for a way to present the findings in a simple, clear way that anyone can easily understand. Last week, during a sleepless night of back pain, I hit on a nice solution.

All the commensurabilities in the following layout are pretty accurate for an overview of the system. Mars is a special case, being a small body getting shoved around between gas giant Jupiter and Earth. It has power series numerics relating it to a near neighbour reminiscent of the dwarf planets Pluto and Eris, which are beyond the main system, and further from the Sun’s gravitational pull. They relate more to Neptune’s orbital period.


The orbit of Triton (red) is opposite in direction and tilted −23° compared to a typical moon's orbit (green) in the plane of Neptune's equator [image credit: Wikipedia]

The orbit of Triton (red) is opposite in direction and tilted −23° compared to a typical moon’s orbit (green) in the plane of Neptune’s equator [image credit: Wikipedia]

Triton is the seventh largest moon in the solar system. Not only that, it has over 99% of the mass of all Neptune’s moons combined. Its retrograde orbit makes it unique among the large moons of the solar system, and it is also the coldest known planetary body at -235° C (-391° F).

Turning to the orbit numbers, and looking at Triton’s closest ‘inner’ (nearer to Uranus) neighbour Proteus and the next two ‘outer’ moons, we find these values (in days):
1.122d Proteus
5.877d Triton
360.13d Nereid
1879.08d Halimede

We’ll treat Proteus and Triton as a pair, and the same for Nereid and Halimede.
Nereid is over fifteen times further from Uranus than Triton is, so hardly a neighbour at all.

Looking at the orbit ratios (which are also the rotation ratios, as usual with moons):
T/P = 5.877 / 1.122 = 5.238
H/N = 1879.08 / 360.13 = 5.218

The first thing to say is that the two results are very similar. One is about 99.62% of the other.