Rethinking the sun’s cycles: New physical model reinforces planetary hypothesis – HZDR research

Another advance for solar-planetary theory. Some of the previous research of the HZDR group was mentioned in this Talkshop post last year. Our JEV (Jupiter-Earth-Venus) chart shown here covers 90 mean solar cycles, using the tropical orbit periods of the planets (verified on Arnholm’s solar simulator software). One point where we disagree slightly with Stefani’s HZDR group is the idea that the 193-year cycle they find is the de Vries cycle. We think not, because the de Vries cycle has a mean of 208.5~ years as Ian Wilson’s PRP paper on JEV theory explained, and other researchers have also found a similar period (say 205-210 years).
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Press release 27 May 2024: Researchers at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) and the University of Latvia have posited the first comprehensive physical explanation for the sun’s various activity cycles.

It identifies vortex-shaped currents on the sun, known as Rossby waves, as mediators between the tidal influences of Venus, Earth as well as Jupiter and the sun’s magnetic activity.

The researchers thus present a consistent model for solar cycles of different lengths – and another strong argument to support the previously controversial planetary hypothesis.

“May 10th was definitely a Great Storm”

South Pacific Auroras Confirm May 10th Was a Great Storm

Historic aurora show

As the sun nears its peak in cycle 25, giant sunspots drive a major burst of auroral activity. “We have a very rare event on our hand,” Shawn Dahl, Service Coordinator of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Group, told reporters on Friday (May 10) just hours before the northern lights spectacle began.
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Many people around the world have just seen auroras for the first time in their lives. This includes residents of the Florida Keys, says Spaceweather.com.
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Seeing auroras in the Florida Keys is extraordinary, but the light show didn’t stop there. Sky watchers saw the sky turn red across the Carribean.
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“The last events on record when auroras were seen from Puerto Rico were in 1859 and 1921, so tonight was an historic event”, says Eddie Irizarry from the Sociedad de Astronomia del Caribe (Astronomical Society of the Caribbean).

Auroras also appeared in Mexico.

Source including aurora images here.
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Image: Auroral activity seen from North Wales (UK), 10 May 2024 [credit: M.Robinson]

Climate protesters in England and Wales lose criminal damage defence

Appeal court says defendants’ ‘beliefs and motivation’ do not constitute lawful excuse for damaging property. They may think their imaginary weather scenarios, supposedly based on climate models and ‘greenhouse effects’, should be taken seriously but the rest of the world has no obligation to do so.
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One of the last defences for climate protesters who commit criminal damage has been in effect removed by the court of appeal, says The Guardian.

The court said the “beliefs and motivation” of a defendant do not constitute lawful excuse for causing damage to a property.

The defence that a person honestly believes the owner of a property would have consented had they known the full circumstances of climate change has been used successfully over the last year by protesters.

Solar protons rain down on Earth via the Parker spiral

Solar Protons Are Raining Down on Earth

Sometimes known as a Solar particle event:
These particles can penetrate the Earth’s magnetic field and cause partial ionization of the ionosphere. Energetic protons are a significant radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts.

The Moon’s Far Side Is Inexplicably More Conductive, Korean Lunar Orbiter Reveals

Far side of the Moon [image credit: NASA]

The Nature article on this says: ‘Perhaps the most baffling of Danuri’s measurements was of the magnetic fields on the Moon’s far side.’ Open season for theorists!
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There’s something odd about the far side of the Moon, scientists have concluded based on data from the Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter.

The results are yet to be published, but suggest a discrepancy between the conductivity of the near and far sides, which so far lacks a plausible explanation, says IFL Science.

Lunar exploration is becoming a global affair. Along with missions from the United States, China, India and Japan, the Korean Aerospace Research Institute has had an orbiter around our satellite for a year. Nicknamed Danuri, the mission is proving there is plenty the larger nations have missed.

Earth’s Ring Current System Just Sprang a Leak

Earth’s Ring Current System Just Sprang a Leak

Worth a look just for the pictures, plus interesting commentary re. what is or isn’t auroral activity.
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Enceladus, Previous Speedster – AAS Nova

Three of Saturn’s moons — Tethys, Enceladus and Mimas — as seen from NASA’s Cassini spacecraft [image credit: NASA/JPL]

Enceladus is in a 2:1 resonance with a moon named Dione, but Tethys – another major moon of Saturn – orbits between them and is in a 1:2 resonance with Mimas, whose orbit lies inside that of Enceladus. So the order of proximity to the planet is Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Dione. The study looks at how the Enceladus-Dione part of this unusual set-up could have come into being. Talking of speed, all four moons orbit their very large planet in less than three days (Mimas in less than one day).
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Enceladus, one of Saturn’s moons, is currently being tugged around and heated up by another moon named Dione, says AAS Nova.

How the two ended up in this arrangement is a mystery, since to get there, Enceladus must have avoided getting caught up in a resonance with another moon named Tethys.

A recent article offers a possible explanation: Enceladus may have blitzed over to its current position in a short-lived burst of speed.

Dynamic Moons
We typically imagine that moons circle their host planets with clockwork regularity, meaning that they precisely trace out the same path at the same speed for all time. However, true reality cannot be described by a system composed of rigid gears.

The Mystery of Orange Auroras – Explained?

The Mystery of Orange Auroras (Updated)

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Alignment with the Earth’s magnetic field is shown here.

To study atmosphere, NASA rockets will fly into October eclipse’s shadow

Annular eclipse [image credit: Smrgeog @ Wikipedia]

This is part 1 – part 2 is next April.
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A NASA sounding rocket mission will launch three rockets during the 2023 annular eclipse in October to study how the sudden drop in sunlight affects our upper atmosphere, says Phys.org.

On Oct. 14, 2023, viewers of an annular solar eclipse in the Americas will experience the sun dimming to 10% its normal brightness, leaving only a bright “ring of fire” of sunlight as the moon eclipses the sun.

Those in the vicinity of the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico, however, might also notice sudden bright streaks across the sky: trails of scientific rockets, hurtling toward the eclipse’s shadow.

A NASA sounding rocket mission will launch three rockets to study how the sudden drop in sunlight affects our upper atmosphere.

New research says orbital factors show why and when the Sahara Desert was green

Sahara desert from space [image credit: NASA]

No trace gases required to drive these climate processes. It was found that ‘the North African Humid Periods occurred every 21,000 years and were determined by changes in Earth’s orbital precession.’
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A pioneering study has shed new light on North African humid periods that have occurred over the past 800,000 years and explains why the Sahara Desert was periodically green, says Science Daily.

The research, published in Nature Communications, showed periodic wet phases in the Sahara were driven by changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun and were suppressed during the ice ages.

For the first time, climate scientists simulated the historic intervals of ‘greening’ of the Sahara, offering evidence for how the timing and intensity of these humid events were also influenced remotely by the effects of large, distant, high-latitude ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere.

SITYS: Climate models do not conserve mass or energy – Roy Spencer, PhD.

‘Potentially serious problems’. Advisable to view the linked blog post before commenting, it’s quite short.
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See, I told you so — says Roy Spencer.

One of the most fundamental requirements of any physics-based model of climate change is that it must conserve mass and energy.

This is partly why I (along with Danny Braswell and John Christy) have been using simple 1-dimensional climate models that have simplified calculations and where conservation is not a problem.
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Now, I just stumbled upon a paper from 2021 (Irving et al., A Mass and Energy Conservation Analysis of Drift in the CMIP6 Ensemble) which describes significant problems in the latest (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models regarding not only energy conservation in the ocean but also at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA, thus affecting global warming rates) and even the water vapor budget of the atmosphere (which represents the largest component of the global greenhouse effect).

These represent potentially serious problems when it comes to our reliance on climate models to guide energy policy. [Talkshop note – author’s emphasis]

It boggles my mind that conservation of mass and energy were not requirements of all models before their results were released decades ago.

Full post here.

Wavelet footprints – The Climate Clock

Gas giants of the solar system [image credit: Wikipedia]

Wavelet transforms reveal solar system footprints in climate time series, says Prof. Harald Yndestad. He explains how TSI (total solar irradiance) has a mean growth from 1700 to 2014. We believe the ideas here have links with this recent Talkshop post. (For the full technical discussion and wavelet examples see the linked article. Some extracts here.).
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In the mid-1980s, the mathematician Yves Mayer from the University of Marseille and the petroleum engineer Jaean Morlet worked with the analysis of data from petroleum surveys at Elf-Aquitaine, writes
Harald Yndestad @ The Climate Clock.

In their efforts to find better methods for frequency analysis, they rediscovered a set of a new type of transformations which they called Wavelets.

The wavelet transform solved some of the weaknesses of the Fourier transform. It required less computing power; it was possible to identify period and phase relations in time-series, and non-stationary periodic variations in nature.

The clouds on Neptune perform a surprise disappearing act, linked to the solar cycle

Neptune

As the senior author of the study noted: “These remarkable data give us the strongest evidence yet that Neptune’s cloud cover correlates with the sun’s cycle”. The planet receives only 1/900th of the sunlight we get on Earth.
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For the first time in nearly three decades of observations, clouds seen on Neptune have all but vanished, says Phys.org.

Images from 1994 to 2022 of the big blue planet captured from Maunakea on Hawaiʻi Island through the lens of W. M. Keck Observatory, along with views from space via NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope show clouds are nearly gone with the exception of the south pole.

The observations, which are published in the journal Icarus, further reveal a connection between Neptune’s disappearing clouds and the solar cycle—a surprising find given that Neptune is the farthest major planet from the sun and receives only 1/900th of the sunlight we get on Earth.

Solar Max is Boosting Airglow

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Another indicator of the current state of the sun.

Spaceweather.com

June 26, 2023: There was no geomagnetic storm on June 22nd. Nevertheless, the sky turned green over rural Colorado. Aaron Watson photographed the dramatic display from the West Elk Mountains:

“I woke up around midnight to crystal clear skies,” says Watson. “I noticed some wispy rays and, at first, I thought maybe it was noctilucent clouds. Upon closer inspection there was an intense green glow rippling across the entire sky.”

Although this looks a lot like aurora borealis, it is something completely different: airglow. Cameras with nighttime exposure settings can pick up the faint emission from anywhere on Earth even when geomagnetic activity is low. All that’s required is a very dark sky.

“Airglow is produced by photochemistry in Earth’s upper atmosphere,” says space scientist Scott Bailey of Virginia Tech. “And it is very interesting photochemistry.”

He explains: There is a layer of air about 95 km above Earth’s…

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What If Climate is Self-Regulating?

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‘Sadly, climate science has morphed into climate rhetoric.’ — That’s what happens when a one-variable theory is proposed for a multi-variable system.
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Science Matters

Andy Kessler writes at WSJ Can the Climate Heal Itself?  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Dissenters from the catastrophe consensus on warming are worth listening to.

Stop with all the existential-crisis talk. President Biden said, “Climate change is literally an existential threat to our nation and to the world.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also talks about the “existential threat” of climate change. National security adviser Jake Sullivan identifies an “accelerating climate crisis” as one reason for a “new consensus” for government picking winners and losers in the economy. Be wary of those touting consensus.

But what if the entire premise is wrong?What if the Earth is self-healing? Before you hurl the “climate denier” invective at me, let’s think this through. Earth has been around for 4.5 billion years— living organisms for 3.7 billion. Surely, an enlightened engineer might think, the planet’s creator built in

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How Big was Carrington’s Sunspot?

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A 1967 group of sunspots ‘nearly led to nuclear war’.
https://www.space.com/33687-solar-storm-cold-war-false-alarm.html

Spaceweather.com

June 6, 2023: If you want to have a bit of fun with ChatGPT, ask it the following question: “How big was Carrington’s sunspot?”

ChatGPT’s response: “Richard Carrington’s observations of the great solar storm in 1859 did not provide a direct measurement of the size of the sunspot.”

Poor Richard Carrington must be turning in his grave. The astronomer made beautiful drawings of the sunspot, shown here in a figure from Carrington’s report in a 1859 issue of the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society:

We definitely know how big it was.

In the mid-19th century, Carrington was known throughout England for his careful measurements of sunspots. Supported by his father’s beer-brewing business, he spent almost every cloudless day in London projecting an image of the sun through his telescope and drawing the sunspots he saw on the 11-inch solar disk. On Sept. 1st, 1859, one of them did…

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Funding appeal: Mike McCulloch needs your help to make interstellar travel possible.

Dr Mike McCulloch has been making truly remarkable discoveries about some of the mysteries of the cosmos over the last two decades. He has answers to fundamental questions such as ‘what causes the force that resists the change in speed and direction of any mass?’, ‘why do observations indicate that the inertial force varies with acceleration in the outer reaches of galaxies?’ and ‘how can we tap into the implicated energy fields to generate propellant-less thrust, and potentially generate electrical energy to power our homes, industries and vehicles?’. His published papers cover the first two of these questions, and touch on the third, although there’s plenty more to be teased out of the implications of his Quantised Inertia theory. The third question is the acid test.

Mike believes science has to have practical, applicable results, and for the last few years, he has been successfully generating those at his lab in Plymouth University, funded by DARPA. He has been getting measurable thrust from purely electrical input. Other collaborating labs have similar results. Exciting times indeed.

But like many scientists who threaten the established and accepted theory in their field, his work has been largely ignored because it falsifies mainstream ‘dark matter’ theory, or dismissed because it ‘must be impossible’. Although he has got measurable results, DARPA funding is ending, and he has no more teaching work to return to at Plymouth University. Mike wants, as far as possible, to keep the ongoing developments of QI publicly accessible, by crowdfunding. He needs our help to fund and equip a new lab, and set up a ‘Horizon Institute’, online initially, to enable the collaboration of academics and citizen scientists. Please read his message below, and then I’ll let you know how you can help.

Mysterious “Aurora Blobs” Explained

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Earth’s rings ‘are made of electricity–a donut-shaped circuit carrying millions of amps around our planet.’ But proton auroras are ‘still mysterious’.

Spaceweather.com

May 15, 2023: Europeans are still trying to wrap their minds around what happened after sunset on April 23, 2023. Everyone knew that a CME was coming; photographers were already outside waiting for auroras. But when the auroras appeared, they were very strange.

“I had never seen anything quite like it,” says Heiko Ulbricht of Saxony, Germany. “The auroras began to tear themselves apart, pulsating as they formed individual blobs that floated high in the sky.”

“It literally took my breath away,” he says. “My pulse was still racing hours later!” The same blobs were sighted in France and Poland, and in Denmark they were caught flashing like a disco strobe light.

Ordinary auroras don’t act like this.

Indeed, “these were not ordinary auroras,” confirms space physicist Toshi Nishimura of Boston University. “They are called ‘proton auroras,’ and they come from Earth’s ring current system.”

Most people don’t…

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Solar Flares and the Origin of Life

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Countering extra-terrestrial delivery theories of life on Earth.

Paper: Formation of Amino Acids and Carboxylic Acids in Weakly Reducing Planetary Atmospheres by Solar Energetic Particles from the Young Sun (April 2023)
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Spaceweather.com

In 1952 the famous Miller-Urey experiment proved that lightning in the atmosphere of early Earth could produce the chemical building blocks of life. New research reveals that solar flares might do an even better job.

“The production rate of amino acids by lightning is a million times less than by solar protons,” says Vladimir Airapetian of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, a coauthor of the new paper.

Above: An artist’s concept of the early Earth

Early research on the origins of life mostly ignored the sun, focusing instead on lightning as an energy source. In the 1950s Stanley Miller of the University of Chicago filled a closed chamber with methane, ammonia, water, and molecular hydrogen – gases thought to be prevalent in Earth’s early atmosphere – and repeatedly ignited an electrical spark to simulate lightning. A week later, Miller and his graduate advisor Harold Urey analyzed the chamber’s contents and…

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