Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

An important new solar paper by Prof Valentina Zharkova and co-authors S. J. Shepherd, S. I. Zharkov & E. Popova  published in ‘Nature’ has incorporated the solar-planetary theory we’ve been researching and advancing here at the talkshop over the last decade. As well as further developing her previous double dynamo theory which now accounts for the last several millennium’s solar grand minima and maxima, she includes discussion of Fairbridge, Mackey, Shirley, Charvatova and Abreu et al’s work. Central to the new hypothesis is the motion of the Sun around the barycentre of the solar system, described as the Solar Inertial Motion [SIM].

Left plot: the example of SIM trajectories of the Sun about the barycenter calculated from 1950 until 210034. Right plot: the cone of expanding SIM orbits of the Sun35 with the top showing 2D orbit projections similar to the left plot. Here there are three complete SIM orbits of the Sun, each of which takes about 179 years. Each solar orbit consists of about eight, 22-year solar cycles35. The total time span is, therefore, three 179-year solar cycles31, or about 600 years. Source: Adapted from Mackey35. Reproduced with permission from the Coastal Education and Research Foundation, Inc

Following my discussion with her at dinner following her talk in London last year, Zharkova now agrees with us that the SIM induced by planetary motion affects sunspot production and solar activity levels.

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Something of a mystery developing here. Open season for theories.

Spaceweather.com

June 11, 2019: On June 8th and 9th, many people who have never previously heard of “noctilucent clouds” (NLCs) found themselves eagerly taking pictures of them–from moving cars, through city lights, using cell phones and iPads. “I have never seen clouds like this before!” says Tucker Shannon, who took this picture from Corvallis, Oregon:

“I heard that they may have been seeded by meteoroids,” says Shannon.

That’s correct. NLCs are Earth’s highest clouds. Seeded by meteoroids, they float at the edge of space more than 80 km above the planet’s surface. The clouds are very cold and filled with tiny ice crystals. When sunbeams hit those crystals, they glow electric-blue.

Noctilucent clouds used to be a polar phenomenon. In recent years, however, researchers have noticed their electric-blue forms creeping south. Is it climate change? Or the solar cycle? No one knows for sure.

This past weekend…

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From the ‘observing tips’: ‘Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the sun has dipped below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.’

Spaceweather.com

May 31, 2019: A huge blue cloud of frosted meteor smoke is pinwheeling around the Arctic Circle. NASA’s AIM spacecraft spotted its formation on May 20th, and it has since circled the North Pole one and a half times, expanding in size more than 200-fold.

“These are noctilucent clouds,” says Cora Randall of the AIM science team at the University of Colorado. “And they are going strong.”

nlc_anim_strip

Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) in May are nothing unusual. They form every year around this time when the first wisps of summertime water vapor rise to the top of Earth’s atmosphere. Molecules of H2O adhere to specks of meteor smoke, forming ice crystals 80 km above Earth’s surface. When sunbeams hit those crystals, they glow electric-blue.

But these NLCs are different. They’re unusually strong and congregated in a coherent spinning mass, instead of spreading as usual all across the polar cap.

“This…

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Main solar system planets [image credit: Wikipedia]


No s**t Sherlock! Numerous independent researchers, some featured at the Talkshop, have been working along such lines for years with little apparent recognition and even a certain amount of negative reaction (like this), let’s say.

H/T Miles Mathis

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HZDR press release of May 27, 2019: New study corroborates the influence of planetary tidal forces on solar activity.

One of the big questions in solar physics is why the Sun’s activity follows a regular cycle of 11 years. Researchers from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), an independent German research institute, now present new findings, indicating that the tidal forces of Venus, Earth and Jupiter influence the solar magnetic field, thus governing the solar cycle.

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Jupiter – the dominant planet in the solar system

The aim here is to show a Lucas number based pattern in five rows of synodic data, then add in a note on Mercury as well.

There’s also a strong Fibonacci number element to this, as shown below.

The results can be linked back to earlier posts on planetary harmonics involving the Lucas and Fibonacci series (use ‘search this site’ box on our home page).

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Get ready: “In June 2019 the Earth will approach within [0.06 AU or 9 million km] of the center of the Taurid swarm, its closest post-perihelion encounter with Earth since 1975”. Is there a Tunguska link?

Spaceweather.com

May 24, 2019: In November 2032, Earth will pass through the Taurid Swarm, a cloud of debris from Comet 2P/Encke that makes brilliant fireballs when its gravelly particles occasionally hit Earth’s atmosphere. Previous encounters with the Swarm in 2005 and 2015 produced showers of bright meteors observed around the world; in 1975 the Swarm contacted the Moon, making Apollo seismic sensors ring with evidence of objects hitting the lunar surface. If forecasters are correct, we’re in for similar activity 13 years from now.

Some researchers are beginning to wonder if there might be more to the Taurid Swarm than the pebble-sized particles that make fireballs–something, say, that could level a forest. On June 30, 1908, a forest in Siberia did fall down when a 100-meter object fell out of the sky and exploded just above the Tunguska River. Back-tracking the trajectory of the impactor suggests it may have come from…

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View from the Moon [credit: NASA]


Moons don’t generally ‘shrink’, so what’s going on here? The abstract of the research paper speaks of compressional stresses, but the only potential source of compression would seem to be the Earth. It’s known that ‘the crust on the far side is a lot thicker than it is on the near side’, as discussed here.

The moon is still tectonically active, like Earth, generating moonquakes as our planet creates earthquakes, a new study based on Apollo mission data found.

These moonquakes likely happen because the moon is quivering as it shrinks, researchers added.

On Earth, tectonic activity, such as earthquakes and volcanism, results from shuffling of the crust’s tectonic plates driven by the churning of the planet’s molten interior, says Charles Quoi at Space.com.

However, the moon is much smaller than Earth and therefore largely cooled off long ago, so one might not expect much, if any, tectonic activity.

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Continuing our recent series of posts, with Uranus-Neptune conjunction data an obvious starting point for the table is where the difference between the number of Neptune orbits and U-N synods is 1.

647 U-N takes a long time (~110,900 years) but the accuracy of the whole number matches is very high.

Lucas no. (7 here) is fixed, and Fibonacci nos. follow the correct sequence (given their start no.).
Full Fib. series starts: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21…etc.
Multiplier: 0,1,1,2,3
Addition: 1,1,2,3,5

The Neptune orbits are multiples of 26 with the same Fibonacci adjustment:
Add 0,1,1,2,3 to the Neptune column numbers to get an exact multiple of 26 (which will be the pattern number in the last column).

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Lunar evections and the Saros cycle

Posted: May 7, 2019 by oldbrew in Maths, moon, solar system dynamics
Tags:

Credit: Matthew Zimmerman @ English Wikipedia


The Saros cycle can be used to predict eclipses of the Sun and Moon, and is usually defined as 223 lunar synodic months, or about 11 days over 18 years.

But there are a few other lunar-related periods which can used to arrive at 223.

One Saros cycle can be said to be the difference between the number of:
— anomalistic months and full moon cycles (239 – 16)
— draconic months and draconic years (242 – 19)
— tropical months and tropical years (241 – 18)

That may be fairly well known, but then there are the lunar evections.

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Distances not to scale.


This is an easy data table to interpret.

The Uranus orbits are all Fibonacci numbers, and the synodic conjunctions are all a 3* multiple of Fibonacci numbers.
[Fibonacci series starts: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, …etc.]

In addition, the difference between the two is always a Lucas number. And that’s it for Saturn-Uranus, which would make for a very short blog post.

But it’s possible to go further.

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There’s a strong link between the trigon period and the solar inertial motion cycle (or Jose cycle) which is 3 trigons or 179 years.

See also: The Sixty-Year Climate Cycle

MalagaBay

Could Kepler’s chart contain the key to climate cycles?

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Jupiter – the dominant planet in the solar system

The aim here is to show a Lucas number based pattern in seven rows of synodic data.
There’s also a Fibonacci number element to this, as shown below.
The results can be linked back to an earlier post on planetary harmonics (see below).

The nearest Lucas number equation leading to the Jupiter orbit period in years is:
76/7 + 1 = 11.857142 (1, 7 and 76 are Lucas numbers).
The actual orbit period is 11.862615 years (> 99.95% match).
[Planetary data source]

It turns out that 7 Jupiter orbits take slightly over 83 years, while 76 Jupiter-Earth (J-E) synodic conjunctions take almost exactly 83 years. One J-E synod occurs every 1.09206 years. (83/76 = 1.0921052).

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A Perfect Storm of Cosmic Rays

Posted: April 25, 2019 by oldbrew in cosmic rays, solar system dynamics

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How high will the Earth’s cosmic ray count go this year?

Spaceweather.com

April 23, 2019: Ten years ago, NASA reported a “perfect storm of cosmic rays.” During the year 2009, radiation peppering Earth from deep space reached a 50-year high, registering levels never before seen during the Space Age.

It’s about to happen again.

Ground-based neutron monitors and high-altitude cosmic ray balloons are registering a new increase in cosmic rays. The Oulu neutron monitor in Finland, which has been making measurements since 1964, reports levels in April 2019 only percentage points below the Space Age maximum of 2009:

crinfo2 Source: The Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland.

What’s going on? The answer is “Solar Minimum.” During the low phase of the 11-year solar cycle, the sun’s magnetic field and solar wind weaken. Cosmic rays find it easier to penetrate the inner solar system. In 2009, the sun experienced the deepest solar minimum in a century. Cosmic rays reaching Earth naturally surged.

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Earth from the Moon [image credit: NASA]


Part 3

To recap, the Lucas series starts: 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29 … (adding the last two numbers each time to find the next number in the series).

Note: for clarity, the three parts of this mini-series should be read in order (links below).

Since Part 1 showed that 7 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions (J-S) = 11 * 13 lunar tropical years (LTY), and from Part 2 we know that 363 LTY = 353 Earth tropical years (TY), these numbers of occurrences can be integrated by applying another multiple of 13:
363 = 3*11*11 LTY
therefore
353 * 13 TY = 3*11*11*13 LTY = 3*7*11 J-S

7 and 11 are Lucas numbers.
13 is a Fibonacci number.
3 belongs to both series.

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A quick antidote to some of the superficial nonsense churned out daily that claims to be about the Earth’s climate [see video].

American Elephants

Climate change is an urgent topic of discussion among politicians, journalists and celebrities, but actual climate scientists are not so much click-bait as real celebrities, and journalists seem more interested in click-bait than deeply informed commentary. We seem to be transforming into a society that values  popularity more than accuracy, or perhaps we always were, but it just wasn’t as obvious as it is today. Richard Lindzen is one of the most esteemed climate scientists in the world, and one to whom you should pay attention.

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Saturn seen across a sea of methane on Titan by Huygens probe 2005


Not sure they mean Earth also has eerie lakes – apart from Lake Erie perhaps. Titan, billed here by a researcher as ‘the most interesting moon in the solar system’, has some observed similarities with Earth, plus some quirks of its own.

There’s one other place in the solar system where liquid rains, evaporates, and seeps into the surface to create deep lakes: Saturn’s moon Titan, says Tech Times.

In this alien world, the Earth-like hydrologic cycle does not take place with water, but with liquid methane and ethane. In Titan’s ultra-cold environment, these gases behave just like water.

Two new papers published in the journal Nature Astronomy detailed the findings of the concluded Cassini mission, particularly the details on Titan’s lakes and their composition.

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Earth’s magnetic field keeps weakening at a faster rate. Should we be concerned?

The Next Grand Minimum

Earth’s magnetic field is getting significantly weaker, the magnetic north pole is shifting at an accelerating pace, and scientists readily admit that a sudden pole shift could potentially cause “trillions of dollars” in damage. Today, most of us take the protection provided by Earth’s magnetic field completely for granted. It is essentially a colossal force field which surrounds our planet and makes life possible. And even with such protection, a giant solar storm could still potentially hit our planet and completely fry our power grid. But as our magnetic field continues to get weaker and weaker, even much smaller solar storms will have the potential to be cataclysmic. And once the magnetic field gets weak enough, we will be facing much bigger problems. As you will see below, if enough solar radiation starts reaching our planet none of us will survive.
But now we are being told that data collected…

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Image credit: Wikipedia

In Part 1 the period of time in question was 13 lunar tropical years (LTY). Here we show how this relates to the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction and other significant periods.

13 LTY = 169 * 27.321582 days (lunar orbit period) = 4617.3473 days
1 Jupiter-Saturn conjunction = 19.865036 years * 365.25636 days = 7255.8307 days
[planetary data source]

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart

This gives a ratio of exactly 11:7 as follows:
11 * 4617.3473 = 50790.82 days
7 * 7255.8307 = 50790.814 days
7 and 11 are Lucas numbers.

Multiplying by 3 (which is both a Fibonacci and a Lucas number), the results from Part 1 can now be ‘plugged in’ to the chart on the right from a previous blog post, which is based on multiples of 21 (3 * 7) Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions, as the chart on the right shows.

Quoting from that post:
The synodic periods all occur in multiples of six, and one sixth of 2503 years is 417.1666 years which is 21 J-S, 382 J-E, 403 S-E and two de Vries cycles.

Updating that, the matching periods now are:
2 de Vries cycles
21 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions (3 * 7)
382 Jupiter-Earth conjunctions
403 Saturn-Earth conjunctions (13 * 31)
352 Chandler wobbles (11 * 32)
429 Lunar tropical years (11 * 39 or 13 * 33)
627 Venus rotations (11 * 57 or 19 * 33)

Therefore: 31 Saturn-Earth = 33 Lunar tropical years.

Quoting from Part 1 of the post:
353 Earth tropical years (ETY) = 363 Lunar tropical years = 10 beats

363 LTY = 33 * 11
Therefore: 363 LTY = 31 * 11 (341) Saturn-Earth conjunctions (= synodic periods).

Quoting from another earlier post – Sidorenkov and the lunar or tidal year:
4719 LM = 128930.54 days  [note: 4719 = 363 * 13 i.e. 363 LTY]
4366 SM = 128930.55 days
4727 CR = 128930.34 days
5080 SSR = 128930.40 days
353 TY = 128930.49 days

(see post re. abbreviations).

NASA’s Saturn Fact Sheet says re. Saturn-Earth:
Synodic period (days) 378.09

TY = tropical years
128930.49 days / 341 S-E = 378.09527 days
This ties Saturn to Sidorenkov’s 353 year period, which is therefore 11/13ths of 21 J-S.
Also: 11/13ths of 429 LTY = 363 LTY.

Footnote:
In the graphic the full period is 126 J-S, described as 6 * 21.
It could also be described as 7 * 18, which are Lucas numbers.

 

The Lucas spiral, made with quarter-arcs, is a good approximation of the golden spiral when its terms are large [credit: Wikipedia]


Here we show numerical connections between the Moon, the Earth and Venus. These will be carried forward into part 2 of the post. The focus is on the smaller Lucas numbers (3-18).

Wikipedia says: The Lucas sequence has the same recursive relationship as the Fibonacci sequence, where each term is the sum of the two previous terms, but with different starting values.

A look at the numbers:
19 Venus rotations = 169 (13²) lunar rotations
Lunar tropical year = 13 lunar rotations / orbits (1 rotation = 1 orbit)
So: 19 Venus rotations = 13 Lunar tropical years
(13 is a Fibonacci number. The Lunar tropical year is derived from the nearest whole number of lunar orbits to one Earth orbit.)

169 * 27.321582 = 4617.3473 days (Data source)
19 * 243.018 = 4617.342 days (Data source)

Now we bring in the Chandler wobble:
13*3 = 39
39 Lunar tropical years = 32 Chandler wobbles
19*3 = 57

Referring to the chart on the right:
7 and 18 are Lucas numbers.
This theme will continue in part 2 of the post.

(32 + 57 = 89 axial, and 89 is a Fibonacci number. In 1/89th of the period the sum of CW and Ve(r) occurrences is 1).

Re. the period of the Chandler wobble:
39 LTY / 32 CW = (169 * 3 * 27.321582) / 32 = 432.8763 days

Or, if we say 27 Chandler wobbles = 32 Earth tropical years:
(365.24219 * 32) / 27 = 432.8796 days

The two results are almost identical (Wikipedia rounds it to 433 days).

Note:
353 Earth tropical years (ETY) = 363 Lunar tropical years = 10 beats
1 beat = 35.3 ETY which is linked to the Chandler Wobble
See: Sidorenkov – THE CHANDLER WOBBLE OF THE POLES AND ITS AMPLITUDE MODULATION

These numbers also feed into part 2 of the post, with more planetary links.

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The author writes in his 40-page document: ‘This report is not meant to be an exhaustive representation of all the published papers related to a solar influence on Earth’s climate, but aims to give a clear presentation of the current knowledge on the link between solar activity and climate.’

Where does cosmic ray variation fit into the ‘big picture’ of solar influences on the Earth?

The Next Grand Minimum

I am still studying this paper but wanted to share and get your feedback

Executive Summary

Over the last twenty years there has been good progress in understanding the solar influ- ence on climate. In particular, many scientific studies have shown that changes in solar activ- ity have impacted climate over the whole Holocene period (approximately the last 10,000 years). A well-known example is the existence of high solar activity during the Medieval Warm Period, around the year 1000 AD, and the subsequent low levels of solar activity during the cold period, now called The Little Ice Age (1300–1850 AD). An important scientific task has been to quantify the solar impact on climate, and it has been found that over the eleven- year solar cycle the energy that enters the Earth’s system is of the order of 1.0–1.5 W/m2. This is nearly an order of magnitude larger than what would be…

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