Archive for the ‘Natural Variation’ Category

Thwaites Glacier [image credit: NASA]


Why the surprise? Natural climate cycles are well documented in Earth’s history. Their ‘many glaciers’ turn out to mostly mean the area around Thwaites Glacier (aka the Doomsday Glacier), known to be affected by subglacial volcanoes and other geothermal “hotspots”, which obviously have nothing to do with the current obsession over atmospheric trace gases.
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The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is shrinking, with many glaciers across the region retreating and melting at an alarming rate, claims the British Antarctic Survey @ Phys.org.

However, this was not always the case according to new research published last month (April 28) in The Cryosphere. [Talkshop comment – self-evident].

A team of scientists from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), including two researchers from British Antarctic Survey (BAS), discovered that the ice sheet near Thwaites Glacier was thinner in the last few thousand years than it is today.

This unexpected find shows that glaciers in the region were able to regrow following earlier shrinkage.

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Sea ice optional? [image credit: BBC]


Why has it taken so long for greenhouse gas obsessives to come up with this, using ‘new climate model simulations’? The Arctic summer sea ice was supposed to be on its last legs at least fifteen years ago. Of course natural variation is ignored or discounted, as usual.
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A 1987 global deal to protect the ozone layer is delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer by up to 15 years, new research shows.

The Montreal Protocol – the first treaty to be ratified by every United Nations country – regulates nearly 100 man-made chemicals called ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), says EurekAlert.

While the main aim was to preserve the ozone layer, ODSs are also potent greenhouse gases, so the deal has slowed global warming.

The new study shows the effects of this include delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer (currently projected to happen the middle of this century) by up to 15 years, depending on future emissions.

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Credit: nationalreview.com


The 1.5C relates back to sometime in the 19th century, when global temperature data was minimal compared to today, one exception being the Central England data which shows nothing dramatic. After three years of La Niña, climate alarmists are relishing the prospect of an El Niño to revive their sagging crisis narrative a bit.
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Our overheating world [Talkshop comment – BBC climate hype] is likely to break a key temperature limit for the first time over the next few years, scientists predict.

Researchers say there’s now a 66% chance we will pass the 1.5C global warming threshold between now and 2027.

The chances are rising due to emissions from human activities and a change in weather patterns expected this summer, says BBC News.

If the world passes the limit, scientists stress the breach, while worrying, will likely be temporary.

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‘We made ourselves an extremely poor experiment when we started to observe meteorology at the coldest time in the last ten thousand years.’ – Indeed.

Science Matters

Jørgen Peder Steffensen, of Denmark’s Niels Bohr Institute, is one of the most experienced experts in ice core analysis, in both Greenland and Antarctica. In this video he explains a coincidence that has misled those alarmed about the warming recovery since the Little Ice Age.  And if you skip to 2:25, you will see the huge error we have made and the assumptions and extrapolations based on that error.  Transcript below is from closed captions with my bolds and added images. H/T Raymond

What do ice cores tell us about the history of climate change and the present trend? 

This ice is from the Viking age around the year one thousand, also called the medieval warm period. We believe that in Greenland the Medieval Warm Period was about one and a half degrees warmer on average than today

NorthGRIP the Greenland ice core project is being reopened to drill…

View original post 610 more words

Antarctica


This research suggests natural climate variation in Antarctica has a much wider range than expected.
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The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting rapidly, claims EurekAlert, raising concerns it could cross a tipping point of irreversible retreat in the next few decades if global temperatures rise 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

New research finds that 6,000 years ago, the grounded edge of the ice sheet may have been as far as 250 kilometers (160 miles) inland from its current location, suggesting the ice retreated deep into the continent after the end of the last ice age and re-advanced before modern retreat began.

“In the last few thousand years before we started watching, ice in some parts of Antarctica retreated and re-advanced over a much larger area than we previously appreciated,” said Ryan Venturelli, a paleoglaciologist at Colorado School of Mines and lead author of the new study. “The ongoing retreat of Thwaites Glacier is much faster than we’ve ever seen before, but in the geologic record, we see the ice can recover.”

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Claims that climate scientists ‘have never seen anything like it’ don’t tell us much as human lifetimes are short compared to Earth’s climate variations. There’s the story of the drained lake that reappeared – so clearly it was once there before any talk of ‘climate change’.
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High in the California mountains, a ski resort sits buried under layers of snow and ice, says Sky News.

Residents of Mammoth Lakes fear for their lives, and livelihoods, after a winter of record snowfalls.

Wooden houses are blanketed under white powder, cars are buried beneath cement-like drifts, and roads are lined by colossal snow banks stretching up to 50ft tall.

Every so often a dagger-like slab of snow or ice will slide from a rooftop and shatter on the ground.

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Image credit: activenorcal.com]


‘Record snowpack’, ‘staggering snowfall’ – dismal climate doomsters take note.
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Record snowfall across much of the western United States has not only helped to alleviate drought—it has also brought a massive boon for the region’s ski resorts, with many hoping to keep their lifts running deep into summer, says Phys.org.

Sitting more than 10,500 feet (3,200 meters) above sea level, Colorado’s Arapahoe Basin has long been famous for its long seasons. The resort’s frozen pistes were the state’s first to open last fall, and typically don’t close until June.

“I bet you, here, we might make it into July. I hope so,” said local ski enthusiast Ian Burkle, 52.

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Their analysis relates to 1979-2018 only. Media talk of ‘stranded’ polar bears, not mentioned in the study, ignores the fact that they are talented swimmers. The unresolved issue of the wavier jet stream is noted in the study, but that’s all. They admit prediction of where it’s all going is difficult.
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Pictures of melting glaciers and stranded [?] polar bears on shrinking sea ice in the Arctic are perhaps the most striking images that have been used to highlights the effects of global warming, says Phys.org.

However, they do not convey the full extent of the consequences of warmer Arctic. In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world. [Talkshop comment – dubious assertions]

While the Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average, winters in the midlatitude regions have experienced colder and more severe weather events.

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Image credit: sanibelrealestateguide.com


The article summary is shown below. See this link for expanded discussion and evidence. No punches pulled here. In short, the evidence doesn’t stack up, so the author – an expert in his own right – calls the IPCC’s cyclone claims ‘fiction’.
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A top conclusion of the recent Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the attribution of observed changes in tropical cyclones to human influence has strengthened over the past 9 years.

The IPCC does not justify its claim that both the detection of changes and attribution have been achieved, says Roger Pielke Jr.

So in Part 1 of this exploration, I tracked back the claim and found that it had no support in the one paper miscited by the IPCC in support of the claim.

In this second part, I look at official data on tropical cyclones. The evidence also does not support the IPCC claim of detection and attribution related to tropical cyclones.

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Credit: NOAA


Expecting to find ‘the science’ (who owns it?) explaining why a warming climate is able to produce near-record snow, we wade in – but the sub-heading is a let-down: ‘A relentless series of ‘rivers in the sky’ is creating extreme conditions across the state, but a role for climate change is unclear’. Then we read: ‘As the atmosphere warms, atmospheric rivers are likely to become more frequent and hold more moisture, and that will result in heavy downpours of rain and snow.’ The obvious clash of warmth and snow in the same sentence is left for the reader to ponder. They end up saying in effect that the weather is getting more weathery. A self-proclaimed ‘NEWS EXPLAINER’ that can’t explain much, it seems.
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Not again! Earlier this week, California was battered by heavy rain, strong winds and thick snow — the latest in a seemingly unending procession of strong storms, says Nature.

Wild weather has afflicted the previously drought-stricken state for three months, resulting in devastating floods, paralysing blizzards and dozens of deaths.

Data released Thursday show that the snowpack is the biggest on record.

Nature spoke to atmospheric and climate scientists about what’s driving the surge in wet weather and what the state could look like in a warmer future.

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Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC]


Sea ice levels are notorious for misuse by climate alarmists. Thankfully no mention of climate red herrings in this study.
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Antarctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system [snip – redundant climate waffle] — [and] significant changes in Antarctic sea ice have been observed, says Phys.org.

Specifically, it experienced a slow increase during 1979–2014, but a rapid decline thereafter.

Despite a modest recovery after the record minimum in 2017, the sea ice area during austral summer 2022 (December 2021 to February 2022) again hit a new record minimum, at 3.07 million km2, which is approximately a 25% reduction compared with its long-term mean during 1981–2010.

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They studied molecules from certain algae that are only produced when there is sea ice. Natural climate variation alone was all it took to reach the required temperature level.
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The “Last Ice Area” north of Greenland and Canada is the last sanctuary of all-year sea ice in this time of rising temperatures caused by climate change.

A new study now suggests that this may soon be over, says Phys.org.

Researchers from Aarhus University, in collaboration with Stockholm University and the United States Geological Survey, analyzed samples from the previously inaccessible region north of Greenland.

The sediment samples were collected from the seabed in the Lincoln Sea, part of the “Last Ice Area”. They showed that the sea ice in this region melted away during summer months around 10,000 years ago.

The research team concluded that summer sea ice melted at a time when temperatures were at a level that we are rapidly approaching again today.

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Image credit: tahoeskiworld.com


They’re calling it “the winter that just doesn’t want to end” as the figures close in on the all-time record for the area. Another atmospheric river is imminent. Records show that ‘several of the snowiest winters logged at least one-fourth of their season total after March 15’.
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No one really knows how much snow fell on the infamous Donner Party when the pioneers were trapped atop the Sierra Nevada for months and dozens died near Lake Tahoe in the winter of 1846-47, says Phys.org.

But this season has now etched its way into the history books as the second snowiest in the 77 years of record-keeping at the Central Sierra Snow Lab—more than 56.4 feet (677 inches, 17.2 meters) with no end in sight.

And there’s still a chance it could surpass the record of 67.7 feet (812 inches, 20.6 meters) set in 1951-52 when more than 200 passengers on a San Francisco-bound luxury train from Chicago were stranded for three days near Donner Pass west of Truckee, California.

Over the weekend, the “winter that just doesn’t want to end” as the National Weather Service in Reno put it, topped the previous No. 2 record of 55.9 feet (671 inches, 17 meters) set in 1982-83.

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Climate miserablists are no doubt dreaming of a mega El Niño to get their warming scare back on course.

Science Matters

The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean.  But as an overview consider how recent rapid cooling  completely overcame the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016).  The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one were gone as of April 2021, again in November 2021, and in February and June 2022  Now at year end 2022 and continuing into January 2023 we have again global temp anomaly lower than average since 1995. (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020).

For reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa.  While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~60 ppm, a 15% increase.

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

View original post 1,192 more words


Meteorology time. Why the ‘partly’ in the headline? Climate change pokes its nose in at the end of the article, but all that’s offered is uncertainty.
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The “seesaw” is bordered by a high-pressure area west of Portugal and a low-pressure area centred over Iceland.

When the balance changes, so does the weather, says Sky News.

An atmospheric “seesaw” is partly responsible for the snow that much of the UK will likely see this week.

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Is it game over for the climate yet? Media over-excitement takes off again.
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The great sleeping giant that is Antarctica that — apart from the Antarctic Peninsula — refuses to respond to global warming may just have begun to stir, and the implications are, well, apocalyptic, jokes Dr David Whitehouse @ Net Zero Watch.

According to CNN “Antarctic sea ice hits record lows again. Scientists wonder if it’s “the beginning of the end.” CNN also reports that, “90% of ice around Antarctica has disappeared in less than a decade.”

CNN are not the only media outlets to report on this years’ record low sea ice around Antarctica in apocalyptic terms, other media extremists are available.

For Sky News it’s the accelerating melt of polar regions. For the BBC “There is now less sea-ice surrounding the Antarctic continent than at any time since we began using satellites to measure it in the late 1970s.” All this is technically true, but misleading. When it’s put into context one sees a different picture.

So let’s have a look at the actual satellite data of Antarctic sea ice collected monthly since 1979. The NSIDC gives two data sets for what it calls i) sea ice extent, and ii) sea ice area. So let’s examine both of them.

The first graph is sea ice area, the second sea ice extent [see here].

From the empirical data it is evident that there is hardly any change of sea ice over the 44-year time span. Since 2016 there is a dip with possibly more variability (of which more later), and the lowest month (February) does show a record low, but by hardly anything (and also look at the data for 1992).

Does this actual data look like the beginning of the end to you? Where is CNN’s 90% loss or Sky News acceleration?

Antarctic sea ice evolution has no significant trends along the whole period, but a volume drop is observed since 2016.

Full article here.

Credit: coolantarctica.com


Natural climate variation is and always has been an ongoing process in Antarctica, just like everywhere else. Research suggests conditions similar to recent years prevailed about 850 years ago in at least one region.
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Mosses, one of the few types of plants living in Antarctica, have a tenuous existence, threatened by advancing glaciers, says the U.S. National Science Foundation.

When glaciers move, they can entomb or cover a plant — starving it of light and warmth. Scientists have discovered that the timing of when a glacier killed a moss, the kill date, provides an archive of glacier history.

The date the plant died coincides with the time the glacier advanced over that location. As glaciers recede, the previously entombed mosses are exposed, now dead and black.

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Credit: NBC


Some schools close for the day. Media get excited. Climate spin doctors have work to do.
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Heavy snow fell in southern California on Friday, as the first blizzard in a generation pounded the Los Angeles area, with heavy rains threatening flooding in other places, reports Phys.org.

Breathless television weather presenters more used to delivering a same-every-day forecast of warm sunshine found themselves knee-deep in the white stuff as the region grappled with its worst winter storm for decades.

Major roads were closed as ice and snow made them impassable, including sections of Interstate 5, the main north-south highway that connects Mexico, the United States and Canada.

Authorities said there was no estimate when it would be re-opened.

“Dangerous and potentially life-threatening snow related impacts are likely for mountain, desert, and foothill roadways in southern California,” the National Weather Service (NWS) said.

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Hunger stone at Decin on the River Elbe, with dates back to 1616 or earlier [image credit: Norbert Kaiser @ Wikipedia]


We looked at some of this recently, here and here. Of course the problem nowadays is that weather news is liable to be subjected to the melodrama treatment by climate obsessives. Re. the European droughts, there’s also the evidence of the ‘hunger stones’, for example.
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The Holocene – the time since the end of the last glaciation – which has witnessed all of humanity’s recorded history and the rise and fall of civilisations – began only 11,700 years ago, says Dr David Whitehouse @ Net Zero Watch.

It is a relatively warm period, but how warm was it at its warmest?

What happened in the past informs current climate models placing the current global warming into perspective.

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The ocean carbon cycle [credit: IAEA]


Photosynthesis springs a surprise. Why not find out what nature is doing before accusing humans of altering the global climate?
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A new study demonstrates the important role of a common group of marine calcifying phytoplankton (coccolithophores) in the regulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere, says Phys.org.

The ocean has removed roughly a third of the CO2 released by humans since the Industrial Revolution.

It is one of the largest sinks of anthropogenic CO2 and the largest reservoir of carbon that can easily exchange with the atmosphere on our planet.

Understanding the processes that control the exchange of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere is key for projecting the future effects of carbon dioxide on climate change, ocean acidification, marine organisms, and society.

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