Archive for the ‘Natural Variation’ Category

View from Titan [artist’s impression]


From the report: ‘the researchers said, learning more about the energy budget of Titan can add to the understanding of climate change on Earth.’ Indeed – and help could be at hand with that.

Researchers have found that Saturn’s largest moon Titan undergoes significant seasonal changes in its energy budget — the amount of solar energy it absorbs, and the heat it emits — an advance that may lead to new insights about climate fluctuations on the Earth, reports Financial Express.

The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, noted that Titan is the only body in the solar system, other than Earth, with a significant atmosphere and liquid surface lakes.

The researchers, including those from the University of Houston in the US, said Titan’s dynamically-varying energy budget has important impacts on its weather and climate systems.

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Credit: BBC News


One minor problem with that Yahoo News headline – it isn’t even winter yet.

Two powerful winter storms hammered the West Coast and Midwest on Wednesday, shutting down highways and snarling travel plans on one of the nation’s busiest travel days.

Weather watches, warnings and alerts were posted across much of the western half of the nation after a storm that had been a “bomb cyclone” marched westward from the California coast, AccuWeather reported.

Hundreds of stranded cars were removed from Interstate 5 headed north from California into Oregon in the aftermath of the storm that dumped snow and created whiteout conditions on both sides of the California-Oregon border.

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Hurricane Katrina [image credit: NASA]


In his own style the author tries to point out some of the excesses of climate hotheads who often prefer cries of alarm to observations based on reality. [Below are a few extracts from the full Forbes article].

Summary: Hurricanes have come to occupy a starring role in the political theater that is climate change. As a result, sorting fact from fiction can be difficult.
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The 2019 North Atlantic hurricane season ends officially later this week. Here I am going to give you the straight scoop on hurricanes.

Everything that follows is fully consistent with recent scientific assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, U.S. National Climate Assessment and World Meteorological Organization.

In fact, the information below comes straight out of these authoritative assessment reports.

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Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy


But groupthink and the fog of constant alarmist propaganda makes it hard for many people to see through to the mundane truth, that their emotions are being exploited in ways that have little or nothing to do with the climate.

At a press conference on Wednesday (20th November), the European Parliament was told: ‘there is no climate emergency’.

One MEP became emotional and accused the organisers of ‘collective manslaughter’ on future generations, reports The GWPF.

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More than a hint of assuming what they would like to prove here, by implying El Niños are now influenced by ‘the industrial age’. But at the end of the report a researcher says: “Maybe El Niño can just enter a mode and get stuck in it for a millennium.” Who gets to define what is or isn’t ‘natural variation’?

El Niños have become more intense in the industrial age, which stands to worsen storms, drought, and coral bleaching in El Niño years, reports Phys.org.

A new study has found compelling evidence in the Pacific Ocean that the stronger El Niños are part of a climate pattern that is new and strange.

It is the first known time that enough physical evidence spanning millennia has come together to allow researchers to say definitively that: El Niños, La Niñas, and the climate phenomenon that drives them have become more extreme in the times of human-induced climate change.

“What we’re seeing in the last 50 years is outside any natural variability. It leaps off the baseline. Actually, we even see this for the entire period of the industrial age,” said Kim Cobb, the study’s principal investigator and professor in the Georgia Institute of Technology’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

“There were three extremely strong El Niño-La Niña events in the 50-year period, but it wasn’t just these events. The entire pattern stuck out.”

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The carbon cycle [credit: laurencenet.net]


This seems to be underlining the futility of pretending that humans could somehow control or manage nature’s carbon cycle, to satisfy a strange ‘greenhouse gas’ obsession.

Lakes and ponds are the final resting place for many of the Earth’s plants. Rivers collect much of the planet’s dead organic matter, transporting it to rest in calmer waters, says Phys.org.

But on a microscopic scale, lakes are anything but calm. An invisible metropolis of microbes feeds on these logs and leaves, producing greenhouse gases as a byproduct.

As a result, lakes may be responsible for as much as a quarter of the carbon in the atmosphere—and rising.

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Could this point to an increasing difference between polar and equatorial average temperatures? Researchers cite ‘ocean-atmosphere oscillations’.

In a boon to wind farms, average daily wind speeds are picking up across much of the globe after about 30 years of gradual slowing, reports Phys.org.

Research led by a team at Princeton University shows that wind speeds in northern mid-latitude regions have increased by roughly 7% since 2010.

The findings mark a reversal of the pattern of declining winds in these regions since the 1980s—a phenomenon known as global terrestrial stilling.

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Another Venice flood

Another Venice flood


H/T Climate Change Dispatch

A similar flood in 1966 gives the lie to the latest alarmist claims. In any case, everyone knows Venice has been sinking for centuries.
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Venice is flooded – again – and its mayor Luigi Brugnaro is blaming climate change.

Except that’s rubbish, says James Delingpole.

This has become the standard dog-ate-my-homework excuse for desperate politicians and administrators who want to dodge their responsibilities while simultaneously attracting media sympathy and aid money.

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‘Long-term’ here means really long-term. The 21k year precession period quoted looks like that of the perihelion.

In the past million years, the high-altitude winds of the southern westerly wind belt, which spans nearly half the globe, didn’t behave as uniformly over the Southern Pacific as previously assumed.

Instead, they varied cyclically over periods of ca. 21,000 years, reports ScienceDaily.

A new study has now confirmed close ties between the climate of the mid and high latitudes and that of the tropics in the South Pacific, which has consequences for the carbon budget of the Pacific Southern Ocean and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

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Australian coral [image credit: heraldsun.com.au]


Another setback for know-it-all climate alarmism, but a win for resilient nature.

For the first time ever, scientists have found corals that were thought to have been killed by heat stress have recovered, a glimmer of hope for the world’s climate change-threatened reefs, says Phys.org.

The chance discovery, made by Diego K. Kersting from the Freie University of Berlin and the University of Barcelona during diving expeditions in the Spanish Mediterranean, was reported in the journal Science Advances on Wednesday.

Kersting and co-author Cristina Linares have been carrying out long-term monitoring of 243 colonies of the endangered reef-builder coral Cladocora caespitosa since 2002, allowing them to describe in previous papers recurring warming-related mass mortalities.

“At some point, we saw living polyps in these colonies, which we thought were completely dead,” Kersting told AFP, adding it was a “big surprise.”

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H/T The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

An interview with Professor Valentina Zharkova on the effect of solar activity on terrestrial climate – from Conversations That Matter, with Stuart McNish.

The sun is going through a stage known as a solar or Maunder Minimum. This is where the solar activity that ignites solar flares or sun spots has decreased.

It’s a normal cycle and one that has been linked to the mini ice age that lasted more than 50 years starting in the mid-1600s.

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Thanks to Ian Wilson for introducing us to his new paper, which is part three of the planned four-part series. The paper can be downloaded from The General Science Journal here. Abstract below.

Abstract

The best way to study the changes in the climate “forcings” that impact the Earth’s mean atmospheric temperature is to look at the first difference of the time series of the world-mean temperature, rather than the time series itself.

Therefore, if the Perigean New/Full Moon cycles were to act as a forcing upon the Earth’s atmospheric temperature, you would expect to see the natural periodicities of this tidal forcing clearly imprinted upon the time rate of change of the world’s mean temperature.

Using both the adopted mean orbital periods of the Moon, as well as calculated algorithms based upon published ephemerides, this paper shows that the Perigean New/Full moon tidal cycles exhibit two dominant periodicities on decadal time scales.

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Himalayan region


The report says: ‘Many scientists believe that ocean acidification from high carbon dioxide levels will reduce the calcium carbonate in algae, especially in the near future. The data, however, suggest the opposite occurred over the 15 million years before the current global warming spell.’ Evidence meets ‘greenhouse gas’ based climate theory, which struggles. Time for a re-think?

A key theory that attributes the climate evolution of the Earth to the breakdown of Himalayan rocks may not explain the cooling over the past 15 million years, according to a Rutgers-led study.

The study in the journal Nature Geoscience could shed more light on the causes of long-term climate change, says Phys.org.

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Solar wind and Earth [credit: NASA]


H/T Tallbloke

This 2017 Chinese study is here.

Below is the Summary — obviously the full info and graphics can be viewed via the link.
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Many studies presented that solar variability does play a significant role in affecting the Earth’s climate change. Almost all of previous studies focused on the effects of solar total irradiation energy.

As the second major source, the solar wind energy flux exhibits more significant long-term variations, but its effect has been rarely concerned. Although the energy content of solar wind energy flux is of 4-5 orders lower than that of irradiation energy, its long-term variation is much more significant.

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Image credit: theozonehole.com


Southern hemisphere spring, that is.

European weather scientists believe the ozone hole over the Antarctic this spring may be one of the smallest since the mid-1980s, says stuff(NZ).

Experts at the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) have observed strange behaviours of the annual ozone hole this season.

Not only is it already shrinking and well on the way to being about half the size it usually is at this time of year, but also it began forming about two weeks earlier than usual and it is off-centre, away from the South Pole.

They say that is probably the result of the rare sudden stratospheric warming, which has been under way about 30km above Antarctica since last month.

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Wild geese take climate action

Posted: September 5, 2019 by oldbrew in climate, Natural Variation, research
Tags: ,

Image credit: Jasper Koster / Phys.org


But is there a twist to this tale? From the research article we learn this:
‘The geese spend the winter and spring on the Solway Firth, United Kingdom. They utilize areas in Norway for spring staging, and breed on the high‐arctic archipelago of Svalbard (Figure 1; Owen & Black, 1999). Recently, a small but increasing number of barnacle geese spend the pre‐migratory period on the Solway before heading directly towards Svalbard (LG, unpublished), which was disregarded in the current study due to a lack of quantitative data.’

Why are they now – apparently at least – staying longer on the Solway (south coast of Scotland) in the spring and bypassing their ‘spring stage’ in Norway? As Dutch researchers asked two years ago: Can barnacle geese predict the climate?
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Migratory animals are actively adjusting their traditions to climate change, new research has found.

An international team of researchers from the University of St. Andrews, with Norwegian, Dutch and British colleagues, found that barnacle geese have shifted their migratory route within the last 25 years, reports Phys.org.

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Antarctica


The lead oceanographer in this research says: “The deep oceans have been warming across much of the world for decades, so we were surprised to suddenly see this trend reversing and stabilizing in the Scotia Sea.”
Carbon dioxide up, warming down – surprising to some it seems.

The supply of dense Antarctic water from the bottom of the ocean to the Atlantic has declined in recent years, says Phys.org.

However, a new study explains for the first time how since 2014 this has stabilized and slightly recovered due to the variability in upstream dense waters, with implications for the global climate.

The study, led by British Antarctic Survey, is published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

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Once more: carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. It is an essential trace gas in the atmosphere.

PA Pundits - International

By Larry Bell ~

A petition being submitted by hundreds of independent climate scientists and professionals from numerous countries to heads of the European Council, Commission and Parliament declares “There is No Climate Emergency.”

Briefly summarized, the request for consideration conveys five urgent messages:

  • Climate change is real and has been occurring with nature-driven cold and warm cycles for as long as the planet has existed.
  • There should be no surprise that the Earth has been warming through natural causes since the last Little Ice Age ended around 1870. Actual temperature increases, however, are far less than predicted by theoretical climate models.
  • There is no real evidence that anthropogenic (human-caused) CO2 emissions are a major or dangerous warming influence. They instead offer great benefits to agriculture, forestry and photosynthesis that is the basis for life.
  • There is also no scientific evidence that increasing CO2 levels are causing more natural disasters…

View original post 745 more words

Hurricanes

Posted: August 18, 2019 by oldbrew in alarmism, Natural Variation, weather, wind
Tags: ,

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A timely reminder that the hysterical hurricane hype season could be about to start. The peak period for Atlantic hurricanes is early-to-mid September on average, but so far this year not much has happened.

[Click on ‘view original post’ below for the video]

PA Pundits - International

From the team at CFACT ~

By Mark Mathis of The Clear Energy Alliance ~

Hurricane season is here. And with climate change, the storms are more frequent and stronger… except… they aren’t. The fact is, the media and climate change campaigners have been lying to you. Why is that?

CFACT’s Marc Morano explains.

The Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) defends the environment and human welfare through facts, news, and analysis.

Read more excellent articles at CFACT  http://www.cfact.org/

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Intertropical Convergence Zone [image credit: University of New Mexico]


A key finding of this research concerns the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The researchers report ‘southward mean positions of ITCZ during the early Medieval Warm Period and the Current Warm Period in the central Indo-Pacific.’ This seems to contradict claims, repeated recently, that the MWP was confined to northern parts of the European and American continents, or at least was not global. But the ITCZ is a global phenomenon, which in turn suggests any recent warming (CWP) could have similar origins to the MWP – surely a somewhat inconvenient proposition for man-made greenhouse gas theorists. Remember this Climategate story – ‘We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period’?

Rainfall variations in the tropics not only potentially influence 40% of the world’s population and the stability of the global ecosystem, but also the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance, says Phys.org.

Beginning in the 20th century, a decline in northern tropical rainfall has been observed, with researchers unsure whether the decline stems from natural or anthropogenic causes.

New rainfall research has shed some light on this question, but left the final answer up in the air.

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