Archive for the ‘alarmism’ Category

Shouting match?

Shouting match?


Is the political element of the climate change debate taking over from the science factors? That seems to be the implication of the opinion piece reported on here.

An excellent new meme has entered the climate change debate thanks to David Harsanyi, writing in The Federalist. In his article he articulates why wide acceptance of catastrophic climate change is failing to manifest: because it comes along with an enormous amount of left wing baggage. He summarises it as ‘leftist malware’.

For those not familiar, ‘malware’ is a term used to describe software that is often harmful or intrusive and usually installs itself on your computer without your consent or knowledge. I can’t think of a better metaphor that captures the essential noxiousness of the climate change movement so neatly.

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Davey-windFrom the Telegraph:

A plan to build a series of wind farms across a huge swathe of unspoilt countryside has been given the green light but the decision is being kept secret.

The proposed turbines and almost 30 miles of pylons to connect them to the National Grid are so unpopular that Ed Davey, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary and a Liberal Democrat MP, has refused to commit to a planning decision ahead of the general election.

According to sources, three giant wind farms, spread across an area of Mid Wales stretching from Machynlleth to Welshpool, have been agreed but will need rubber-stamping by the incoming secretary of state.

A planning inspector has recommended permission be given for the farms. They each consist of between 17 and 65 turbines up to 450ft tall – equivalent to the height of the London Eye. In all, almost 200 could be built in the coming years.

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Heads in the clouds?

Heads in the clouds?


If temperatures won’t go up, bring the so-called ‘target’ down. That’s the latest brainwave of climate fear merchants, seemingly oblivious to the lack of any temperature rise this century.

Former Guardian writer Fred Pearce reports:
Is the world’s target of limiting global warming to 2 °C too high, or too low? Does it even make scientific sense? The consensus around the target, which was agreed at climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009, seems to be coming unstuck.

Back in October, US climate analysts David Victor and Charles Kennel called it scientifically meaningless and politically unachievable. We should get used to the idea of something warmer, they said.

Now the target has been denounced as “utterly inadequate”, by Petra Tschakert of Penn State University in University Park, who has been involved in a UN review of the target. She wants a 1.5 °C target instead. Writing in the journal Climate Change Responses, she says this lower limit is necessary if we want sea levels to rise less than a metre, to protect half of all coral reefs, and to still have some ice during Arctic summers.

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There seems to be a buzz in the alarmosphere about the gulf stream stopping because emissions. I must admit I don’t have much time to spare at the moment for dealing with the ramped up rhetoric about ‘man made climate change’, but I spotted a typical tweet from Professor Ray Wills which I thought was worth a quick reply.

This is of course, nonsense.

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vitamin-aGuest Post from Ivo Vegtor
These are strong words, but they’re no exaggeration. By whipping up groundless fears about genetically engineered foods and misinforming governments in developing countries, Greenpeace and other anti-GMO lobby groups are condemning millions of people to easily preventable malnutrition and death.

Patrick Moore, a co-founder* and former member of Greenpeace, has accused the environmental group of crimes against humanity over its opposition to Golden Rice, a genetically-modified variety that fortifies rice with vitamin A.

“They [Greenpeace] are wealthy Westerners flying in jets around the world telling other people to stop using fossil fuels,” he writes in an email to me. “They are well fed and they would deny a healthy diet to millions of poor children. They are guilty of a crime against humanity as defined by the International Criminal Court as they are ‘knowingly contributing to the suffering and death of civilian populations’.”

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climate-rant

Image courtesy of Jo Nova

Following Naomi Oreskes message last week, now I’ve had the film director emailing me!

>Director Robert Kenner
> wrote:
>
> Dear Roger,
>
> People who mislead the public on climate change should not be on TV. Period.
>
> That’s one big reason why I produced Merchants of Doubt, a film that lays
> bare the greedy, shameful world of climate denial and the journalists who
> broadcast it. That’s also why, right now, we’re launching a people-powered
> national campaign that could keep climate deniers out of the news for good.
>
> Merchants of Doubt premieres in U.S. theaters today, and it will invite
> thousands of energized viewers to sign this petition and join our campaign.
> Let’s lead the charge!
>
> Join me to tell TV network and cable news directors: Stop booking “merchants
> of doubt” on your programs immediately.

My response:

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It was the scientific skeptics who bucked the ‘consensus’ and said the Earth was round.
By Richard McNider And John Christy Updated Feb. 19, 2014

In a Feb. 16 speech in Indonesia, Secretary of State John Kerry assailed climate-change skeptics as members of the “Flat Earth Society” for doubting the reality of catastrophic climate change. He said, “We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists” and “extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts.” But who are the Flat Earthers, and who is ignoring the scientific facts?

ChristyMT_GL_102_Models

In ancient times, the notion of a flat Earth was the scientific consensus, and it was only a minority who dared question this belief. We are among today’s scientists who are skeptical about the so-called consensus on climate change. Does that make us modern-day Flat Earthers, as Mr. Kerry suggests, or are we among those who defy the prevailing wisdom to declare that the world is round?

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You have to laugh, there’s some serious conspiracy ideation going on here, and precious little science.:

From: Professor Naomi Oreskes <xxx@xxxxxxxx.xxx>
To:
Roger Tattersall <xxx@xxxxxx.xxx>
Date:

14:10

Slugging the Kool-aid again Naomi?

Slugging the Kool-aid again Naomi?

Dear Roger,

When I wrote the book Merchants of Doubt in 2010, I only wanted one thing: to uncover the truth about who was behind the widespread, and sadly, effective, campaigns to undermine the established science of climate change, and why they were doing what they were doing.

I never imagined that, a few years later, Sony Pictures would release Merchants of Doubt, a captivating feature film that exposes the ugly world of climate denial like never before.

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Sorry folks [image credit: wikia]

Sorry folks [image credit: wikia]

The Guardian newspaper finally facing up to climate reality? Well, after a fashion. Their global warming can may have been kicked down the road for a while, that’s all.

The idea that natural variation could make temperatures go up as well as down is still not for discussion in their biased climate world.

H/T Lord Beaverbrook.

Guardian report: Manmade global warming over the past decade has probably been partly offset by the cooling effect of natural variability in the Earth’s climate system, a team of climate researchers have concluded.

The finding could help explain the slowdown in temperature rises this century that climate sceptics have seized on as evidence climate change has stopped, even though 14 of the 15 hottest years on record have happened since 2000.

The authors of the new paper describe the slowdown, sometimes called a global warming hiatus or pause, as a “false pause”. They warn that the natural cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic that they found are currently having an overall cooling effect on temperatures will reverse in the coming decades – at which point warming will accelerate again.

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H/T to tweeter ‘ILuvCO2′ for reminding me about this essay from the excellent ‘numberwatch’ website, written by its owner John Brignell back in 2009. Still fresh and relevant.

That a lie which is all a lie may be met and fought with outright,
But a lie which is part a truth is a harder matter to fight.
Tennyson – The Grandmother.

It is to some extent forgivable when people adopt extreme positions out of misapprehension or delusion. It is quite another matter if they mislead others by deliberate falsehood. Politicians, of course, treat the lie as part of their professional equipment. Indeed, in some circumstances they are obliged to use it (when, for example, telling the truth about the economy would cause a run on the currency). In science, up to recent times, there is no circumstance in which a deliberate falsehood is justifiable. It requires at a minimum being drummed out of one’s learned society.

All that has changed with the rise of authoritarian government. In Britain this took the form of nationalisation of the universities, begun under Thatcher and completed under Blair.  In the USA it took the form of new state-funded bureaucracies, such as the EPA, who maintained control by the monopoly of funding. The global warming religion changed everything.

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Guest post from Tony Thomas over at Quadrant Online:

You Couldn’t Make This Stuff Up

But then most of us aren’t “climate scientists”, who have once again granted themselves permission to assemble a cavalcade of conjecture and omission and parade it as “evidence”, courtesy of the Australian Academy of Science. They do, however, care deeply about puppies and kittens

puppies-drowning

The Australian Academy of Science  has hitched its wagon to the “climate change will kill kittens and puppies” school of science. This kittens-and-puppies theme was dreamed up by Harvard University’s Naomi Oreskes and endorsed by Academician and ABC Science Show host Robyn Williams — a device quite deliberately intended to make householders sit up, take notice and believe in the scariness of computer-model forecasts.

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UPDATE: This post mistook the upper curve for CO2 in the figure 4 from Callendar’s paper, cropped by the Guy Callendar twitter account. It is actually 5yr smoothed temperature, as pointed out by commenter ‘berniel’ in comments. So the apparent ~2.5yr lag between the upper and lower curve is due to the smoothing of the temperature data. This doesn’t change the fact that CO2 lags temperature at all timescales, but does invalidate the analysis in this article.

Back in 1938, Guy Callendar wrote a paper “The artificial production of CO2 & its influence on temperature”. In it is a figure showing how they both rose in the early C20th. MET office PR man Richard Betts retweeted the Guy Callendar twitter account this morning.

Unlike more modern misrepresentations given by climate scientists, which spuriously splice the instrumental record from 1950 onto ice core records (with a large temporal mismatch), Callendar uses actual empirical measurements of airborne CO2. His data reveals something sceptics have frequently pointed up: Temperature changes lead CO2 changes. Check my annotation to Callendar’s plot below the break.
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Weather station [image credit: Peter West/National Science Foundation]

Weather station [image credit: Peter West/National Science Foundation]


Long-time critic of climate alarmism Christopher Booker has no doubt what the answer should be in his latest piece at the Telegraph:

When future generations look back on the global-warming scare of the past 30 years, nothing will shock them more than the extent to which the official temperature records – on which the entire panic ultimately rested – were systematically “adjusted” to show the Earth as having warmed much more than the actual data justified.

Two weeks ago, under the headline “How we are being tricked by flawed data on global warming”, I wrote about Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming.

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Recntly, NASA released data from the OCO satellite borne instument measuring CO2 emissions across the globe. The December data with a map of the Earth’s rainforests in the image below clearly shows where most CO2 is being emitted.

oco-rainforests

But looking at NASA’s ‘Earth Now’ page for CO2, you wouldn’t recognise the true situation.
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Reposted from the Climate Sceptic Party. H/T the Hockey Schtick

How did many usually sensible experts get “GLOBAL WARMING” so very wrong?

VERY SIMPLE…..

Oops! One wrong equation caused the climate scare!

feedback-equation

RED FACES all around among the profiteers of doom. A wrong equation that falsely triples the tiny direct warming caused by doubling CO2 concentration has been discovered and exposed in a major peer-reviewed paper just published in the Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences  (LINK – pdf), one of the world’s top peer review science journals.

No rogue equation means no climate crisis.
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bbc-greenpeace-medThe BBC doesn’t like fracking. This is evident from their coverage over the years (example). In order to ramp up concern, they use every trick in the book. This one is a diagram they use which is designed to worry people about shalegas getting into the water table, and the ongoing presence of a big ugly tower (wind turbines anyone?) making a blot on the lanscape. Of course, they include a ‘not to scale’ grey on a grey background label for plausible deniability purposes.

UPDATE: Josh has kindly send a ‘to scale’ drawing for us to refer too. BBC take note. See bottom of post.

shale_gas_extraction

Below the break, I’ve made an improved version which the BBC is welcome to make use of if they are interested in escaping further criticism of their blatant bias. I left them some tidying work to do, since I don’t get paid for correcting their deceptive output.

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Gas heating [image credit: CVO Fire]

Gas heating [image credit: CVO Fire]

A committee of MPs has been accused of listening to “ill-informed” green groups instead of scientific evidence, after it called for a ban on fracking for shale gas, citing health and environmental fears, the Daily Telegraph reports.

The Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) on Monday called for fracking to be put on hold indefinitely, and at a minimum banned in national parks, amid “huge uncertainties around the impact that fracking could have on water supplies, air quality and public health”.

Developing shale gas is also “incompatible” with the UK’s legally-binding climate change targets, it claimed.

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Businessweek has the story. The image below shows the damage (bordered with the red dashed line) Greenpeace did to the world heritage site which contains Peru’s national emblem, the Hummingbird.

nazca-lines-damage

Greenpeace has provided Peruvian authorities with the identities of the four foreign activists principally responsible for vandalizing the Nazca Lines heritage site during last month’s international climate negotiations in Lima, Bloomberg Businessweekhas learned.  The stunt, in which activists placed yellow letters urging climate action near a hummingbird carved in soil 1,500 years ago that is a national symbol of Peru, bombed. It distracted attention from the climate talks and outraged Peru’s people and government, which has called for the activists’ extradition to face legal charges. The action also gave Greenpeace, one of the world’s most recognized nongovernmental organizations and social brands, the worst public relations black eye in its 40-plus years of attention-grabbing protest.

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Matt Ridley: A Lukewarmer Against Dogmatism

Posted: January 22, 2015 by tallbloke in alarmism, Analysis, flames
Tags: ,

Reposted from Matt Ridley’s blog

Matt-RidleyI am a climate lukewarmer. That means I think recent global warming is real, mostly man-made and will continue but I no longer think it is likely to be dangerous and I think its slow and erratic progress so far is what we should expect in the future. That last year was the warmest yet, in some data sets, but only by a smidgen more than 2005, is precisely in line with such lukewarm thinking.

This view annoys some sceptics who think all climate change is natural or imaginary, but it is even more infuriating to most publicly funded scientists and politicians, who insist climate change is a big risk. My middle-of-the-road position is considered not just wrong, but disgraceful, shameful, verging on scandalous. I am subjected to torrents of online abuse for holding it, very little of it from sceptics.

I was even kept off the shortlist for a part-time, unpaid public-sector appointment in a field unrelated to climate because of having this view, or so the headhunter thought. In the climate debate, paying obeisance to climate scaremongering is about as mandatory for a public appointment, or public funding, as being a Protestant was in 18th-century England.

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Tony Thomas: The Settled Science of Ignoring Facts

Posted: January 20, 2015 by tallbloke in alarmism
Tags:

Guest post from Tony Thomas originally posted at Quadrant online.

Australia’s Academy of Science is overdue to clarify its position on global warming, but don’t expect that much-delayed document to be written in the ink of rational objectivity. Despite doubts creeping into the pronouncements of overseas counterparts, local warmists remain determined to defend the faith.

models-reality

The position of the Australian Academy of Science on global warming was last stated in August, 2010. It basically regurgitated the 2007 findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with some Australian temperature trends thrown in – from 1910, thus eliding the inconvenient 19thcentury heatwaves.

But the Academy has  had  problems with its promised update for 2014.   Kick-start funds for printing and production, undisclosed but modest, arrived from the Labor government in June, 2013.

By October, 2014, the text was finished  and the project moved to the design phase, in readiness for publication before the Lima climate fest, which started on December 1.  The booklet missed that bus and now the publication date has been put forward into 2015.  I gather that the delays reflect the usual problems of committee work, plus the illness of a key author.

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