“5 Years To Climate Breakdown”: How to generate computer model scares

Credit: nationalreview.com

Climate models are too unreliable to be any serious guide to the future, as the author points out. But getting decision makers to understand that is near-impossible in many countries, hence the acceptance of alarmist nonsense.
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Shock, horror: According to the WMO and the Met Office, there is a 3% chance of the forthcoming five-year global temperature average exceeding 1.5°C, says Dr. David Whitehouse @ The GWPF.

There are several definitions of hustle. One of them is to use forceful actions to promote an action or point of view.

It’s everywhere of course and in all aspects of climate change. It’s all too apparent when scientists want grants, jobs and headlines.

It’s no new discovery that combining hustle with statistics can get you anywhere.

The recently released news from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), prepared by the UK Met Office, that there is a “growing chance” of the world exceeding the “Paris threshold” of 1.5°C in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is a prime example of this.

Review: Rex Fleming Calls Carbon Dioxide Fear A “False Alarm”

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If the world could move away from false alarms like human-caused climate change, it might be able to focus on genuine problems such as widespread lack of access to electricity and clean water.

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By Duggan Flanakin ~

This summer there are two new books and an older one newly relevant today with the same title: False Alarm.

Though physician Dr. Marc Siegal wrote False Alarm: The Truth about the Epidemic of Fear back in 2008, right now Amazon Kindle has the book in heavy promotion. Kindle boasts, “More relevant than ever as the Coronavirus COVID 19 pandemic sweeps the globe, False Alarm reminds readers to look closely at the facts as the media covers the pandemic news and spread of the virus, as well as reinforces the notion that we must arm ourselves against fear tactics….”

The two new books, however, address fear generated by politicians and doomsayers over “manmade global warming” for which carbon dioxide (and the burning of fossil fuels that releases it into the atmosphere) is cast as the chief culprit.

Due out on July 14^th is “skeptical…

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R&D critical to reach net-zero emissions, says IEA

Well, there’s your problem. The climate alarmists need tech toys that don’t exist, and insist that ‘clean’ energy can change the weather.
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Without a major acceleration in clean energy innovation, countries and companies worldwide will be unable to fulfil their pledges to bring their carbon emissions down to net-zero in the coming decades, said the IEA in a new report.

The report assesses the ways in which clean energy innovation can be significantly accelerated to achieve net-zero emissions while enhancing energy security in a timeframe compatible with international climate and sustainable energy goals, says Trade Arabia.

The Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation is the first publication in the IEA’s revamped Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) series and includes a comprehensive new tool analysing the market readiness of more than 400 clean energy technologies.

Book Review: “Apocalypse Never” By Michael Shellenberger

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The removal of his Forbes article yesterday is no doubt a foretaste of the alarmist reaction to his book.

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By Peter Murphy~

The way to a cleaner, sustainable planet is not to eliminate fossil fuels and nuclear power, but rather to expand their use, especially in developing countries to bring economic growth and prosperity, the way such sources did for the developed world.

This is one of the primary themes in the new book, Apocalypse Never, written not by a “climate denier” or “corporate shill.” Instead, author Michael Shellenberger is a 30-year environmental activist with street cred in various causes including saving California’s redwood forests and co-founding a “progressive Democratic, labor-environment push” in 2002 for the New Apollo Project, a renewable energy initiative that long predated the Green New Deal. He also is a Time magazine “Hero of the Environment.”

Shellenberger’s background is a key reason Apocalypse Never is so devastating to extremist environmentalism that has taken hold in politics, the media, K-12 education and popular culture…

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Shellenberger: On behalf of environmentalists, I apologize for the climate scare

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

An IPCC reviewer says the public have been misled. Whether self-styled environmentalists go along with this is debatable of course. Cynics may say the writer has a book to sell, but an opinion piece in Forbes carries some weight. The definition of climate change is left open to interpretation.
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On behalf of environmentalists everywhere, I would like to formally apologize for the climate scare we created over the last 30 years, says Michael Shellenberger @ Forbes [pdf link].

Climate change is happening. It’s just not the end of the world.

It’s not even our most serious environmental problem.

Ross McKitrick: The flaw in relying on worst-case climate modelling

Credit: Wikipedia

H/T The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

Or relying on any climate modelling, some might say given its current tendency toward overheated predictive mediocrity.
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The purpose of global climate policy is to get us from the dangerous upper end of the forecast range down to the safe bottom end. In fact, we are already there.

Whenever you read a media story about how we’re heading toward catastrophe if we continue operating “business as usual” — i.e., if we don’t slash carbon emissions — the reports are almost always referring to a model simulation using RCP8.5.

And you can bet that nowhere in the story will they explain that RCP8.5 is an implausible worst-case scenario that was never meant to represent a likely base case outcome, or that scientists have begun castigating its usage as a prediction of a doomed business-as-usual future.

It’s #ShowYourStripes day folks; climate realist style.

Exeter university warmist Ed Hawkins came up with an idea for a beach towel a couple of years back. It’s the (alleged) temperature history of Earth’s annual average surface temperatures since the 1850s. It acts as global warming propaganda for the uninformed and is pushed and touted by the usual alarmist outfits.

Ed Hawkins ‘Climate Stripes’

Journalist claims carbon dioxide is ‘slowly but surely killing us all’

Electric ferry Ellen [image credit: Erik Christensen @ Wikipedia]

No evidence is offered, of course. The article is about an electric ferry, but the temptation to lapse into lurid climate propaganda was obviously too great. As for the ferry, the article implies the batteries will last for 30 years, which looks ambitious to say the least.
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Ellen, Denmark’s first all-electric ferry, has completed its first 10 months of revenue service, reports CleanTechnica.

Passengers like its silent running and absence of diesel fumes.

The operator likes that it costs less to run than a diesel-powered ferry.

Island ‘drowning’ is not inevitable as sea levels rise

Another bunch of climate alarmist predictions get exposed as over-the-top doom-mongering — literally, in this case.

Coral reef islands across the world could naturally adapt to survive the impact of rising sea levels, according to new research reported at Phys.org.

Coral reef islands across the world could naturally adapt to survive the impact of rising sea levels, according to new research.

The increased flooding caused by the changing global climate has been predicted to render such communities—where sandy or gravel islands sit on top of coral reef platforms—uninhabitable within decades.

However, an international study led by the University of Plymouth (UK) suggests that perceived fate is far from a foregone conclusion.

Alarmist Queen Hayhoe Takedown By Friends Of Science

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Another climate alarm promoter gets scrutinised by more sober-minded analysts, and doesn’t come out of it well.

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By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

If Greta Thunberg is an alarmist princess then Katherine Hayhoe is the queen of climate alarmism, at least in the U.S. and Canada. She was the de facto spokesperson for the atrocious third National Climate Assessment. After that she started doing bogus “Here’s what is going to happen to you” climate studies for various states and cities. Making big bucks scaring people.

Last year Hayhoe delivered a doomsday forecast to the Province of Alberta, Canada, and here our story begins. Alberta is home to the Friends of Science Society (FOSS), one of Canada’s top skeptical organizations. FOSS has now produced a 77 page takedown report, shredding Hayhoe’s so-called study in detail. It is an elegant critical work, with implications far beyond Canada.

The topic is technical but it is written for policy makers. The plain English table of contents gives the flavor and shows the…

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Weaknesses Of Wind And Solar: When Science And Reality Clash – Part 3

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The demonisation of carbon dioxide is essentially a marketing tactic masquerading as science, to fool the gullible.

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By Dr. Jay Lehr and Terigi Ciccone~

In Parts One and Two of this Series, we established the Ciccone/Lehr Rule of Thumb which states that All Wind and Solar Power must be backed up with an equal or greater amount of Fossil Fuel Power running on standby 100% of the time.

In this concluding segment, we summarize the critical climate change facts that you need to be optimistic for a better future and do so with confidence, tolerance, and good humor. The facts are fully substantiated in the book A HITCHHIKER’S JOURNEY THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE, now on Amazon.

The climate change industry is enormous. Untold hundreds of $billions are in play each year, and charlatans are fiercely competing for the biggest bites. An editorial in the May 27 Wall Street Journal by Steve Milloy described how many Fortune 500 companies brag about what they are doing…

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UK Met Office promotes climate alarmism and ‘net zero’ energy policies

In this blog post by the Met Office, everyday weather forecasting barely gets a look-in. Now it’s about ‘inevitable climate changes’ and so on. The whole thing reeks of propaganda, and we can expect another 30 years of it.
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In Part I of this two-part blog series (published yesterday) Professor Albert Klein Tank described the history and highlights of the Met Office Hadley Centre over the past 30 years, says the UK Met Office.

Here the Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre focuses on the future.

The next 30 years

In the next 30 years, the role of climate science at the Met Office Hadley Centre will evolve to one of quantifying the predicted changes in climate, and providing more detailed information on what these changes mean to individuals.

How can we help societies plan for the future and manage the risks from extreme climate events and avoid impacts which are too drastic to cope with?

‘CO2 levels’ and your ‘carbon footprint’ — NOT the problem you’ve been told

CO2 is not pollution

Irrational fears about essential carbon dioxide in relation to the Earth’s climate have long since degenerated into superstition or old wives’ tales, for which we’re all paying the price, as discussed here.
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Last year a student at a nearby university complained she couldn’t focus in class; she was convinced high levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) were the cause, says Dan Nevert @ CFACT.

The entire building was immediately evacuated and tested for “toxic levels of this dangerous gas.” After determining the CO2 levels were less than 500 parts-per-million (ppm), the classroom air was considered “safe” and classes again resumed.

Recently, this same school advertised that you can now “offset carbon emissions from previously completed university-funded ground-transportation and air travel trips” — by filling out a “travel carbon offsets” form, available in their “Sustainability Office.” Plus, this school is offering a course on “how to lower your carbon footprint.”

Calls to add ‘climate change’ to Australian death certificates

Tasmanian bush fire, 2013 [image credit: Chuq @ Wikipedia]

Climate alarmists yet again strain credulity to the limit, no doubt hoping to stir up guilt in the populace about energy use.
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Heat-related deaths have been “substantially underreported” on Australia’s national records, according to experts from The Australian National University (ANU).  

Researchers say the amount of deaths attributed to excessive natural heat is at least 50 times more than recorded on death certificates.  

Published in The Lancet Planetary Health, figures show over the past 11 years 340 deaths in Australia were recorded as being due to excessive heat but statistical analysis found 36,765 deaths could have been attributed to heat.

“Climate change is a killer, but we don’t acknowledge it on death certificates,” co-author Dr Arnagretta Hunter, from the ANU Medical School, said.

USA Today Pushes Climate Panic

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Is there a legal limit to the more outlandish claims of climate alarmists, or if not, why not?

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By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

I recently described the all too often case where extreme computer modeling results feed the media into then feeding a public panic. A cascade of mindless fear. See my https://www.cfact.org/2020/04/27/tale-of-two-panics-covid-climate/.

USA Today has now provided a perfect example of promoting model based panic.

Here is their panicky title: “Unsuitable for ‘human life to flourish’: Up to 3B will live in extreme heat by 2070, study warns“

Three billion people will live where humans cannot survive? Seriously? Will they become billions of climate refugees? That is the absurd idea, right?

USA Today is a trusted source for many people, but here they publish pure nonsensical alarmist speculation as accepted fact. Note that the headline does not say “study suggests”. No it is “study warns” as though this nonsense were real and something to act on. Perhaps a ten year lockdown is called for…

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Is There A Relationship Between Global Temperature And Ocean Levels? Sure, But…

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Better to follow the actual observations than the Hollywood-style scenarios of headline-chasing climate alarmists.

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By Dr. Jay Lehr~

Alarms over rising oceans continue to sound. Politicians, actors, authors, and “climate activists” warn us regularly that the massive ice sheets in the Antarctic, and the Arctic, are melting. They remind us that in a matter of decades, oceans will rise to the point where they will destroy many coastal cities, and the process would become “irreversible.” The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the media have speculated and prophesied that by 2100, we would have ocean levels between five to ten feet higher.

Graphic photoshopped pictures of New York skyscrapers show buildings flooded several floors high. Miami is shown vanishing under the sea. All said to be a result of increasing CO2 followed by melting ice resulting in a rise in our ocean levels.Most of our readers suspect great exaggeration but do not understand…

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Tale Of Two Panics – Covid And Climate

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Over-reliance on computer models isn’t working out too well.

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By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

While they are occurring on vastly different time scales, the Covid-19 panic and the climate change panic are remarkably similar. Perhaps there are certain basic social panic mechanisms that always occur, which are yet to be discovered. Yet in any case the striking similarities between these two are worth exploring a bit.

To begin with, each panic began with runaway computer models. In the Covid case the U.S. death count was projected to be around 2,000,000, clearly calling for draconian government action, which soon followed. That number now stands at about 60,000, about the same as a bad flu year, but the damage is well underway.

Claims that the ruinous actions brought the numbers down are belied by the countries that fared just as well without them. Nor do we know what made the model so “hot” as it has not been analyzed, or even…

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Germany, Britain call for ‘green recovery’ from pandemic but dissenters disagree

They keep trotting out their ‘little time left’ alarm call, pretending to have the power to micromanage the Earth’s climates. But others take a rather different view: Costly Climate Policies Must Be Abandoned To Save Economy. Sucking the life out of ailing economies to try and control the weather isn’t everyone’s idea of a recovery.
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Germany and Britain said Monday that efforts to revive the global economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic must ensure a ‘green recovery’ that helps the world tackle climate change, reports Phys.org.

Speaking ahead of a virtual meeting of officials from some 30 countries, Germany’s environment minister said it was important for economic recovery programs to invest in future-proof jobs that would help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in coming years, rather than aim for a return to business as usual.

Rising CO2 causes more than a climate crisis—it may directly harm our ability to think, claim researchers

A climate classic from the University of Boulder. Has ‘excess’ CO2 already got to them? Prepare to enter the twilight zone… 🤪
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As the 21st century progresses, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will cause urban and indoor levels of the gas to increase, and that may significantly reduce our basic decision-making ability and complex strategic thinking, according to a new CU Boulder-led study.

By the end of the century, people could be exposed to indoor CO2 levels up to 1400 parts per million—more than three times today’s outdoor levels, and well beyond what humans have ever experienced, reports Phys.org.

“It’s amazing how high CO2 levels get in enclosed spaces,” said Kris Karnauskas, CIRES Fellow, associate professor at CU Boulder and lead author of the new study published today in the AGU journal GeoHealth. “It affects everybody—from little kids packed into classrooms to scientists, business people and decision makers to regular folks in their houses and apartments.”

We need health warning labels on points of sale of fossil fuels – The BMJ

Schemes to ramp up climate alarm propaganda with ‘warming’ [sic] labels are already in the pipeline e.g. in Sweden. They try to claim a health risk from the warmer weather they feel sure lies ahead, while pointing the finger at humans for this supposed problem and equating it to tobacco smoking. If the pollution doesn’t get you, the climate emergency will…type of thing. Crude stuff loosely based on dodgy climate models.
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Mike Gill and colleagues explain how the implementation of of fossil fuel labelling could have a significant impact on the awareness of climate change, says The British Medical Journal blog. This article is part of The BMJ’s Health in the Anthropocene collection.

The use of fossil fuels should be rapidly reduced to keep the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels—a core goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Emphasising the risks to health of fossil fuel use, now and in the future, could motivate action.