Posts Tagged ‘co2’


Current rates of temperature increase, if accurate, don’t look all that startling despite the odd few hot days. For example, Roy Spencer reports a linear warming trend of +0.13C per decade since 1979. We know previous cooling trends must have occurred over the centuries from the regular advance and retreat of glaciers, to cite one obvious line of evidence. Focussing on CO2 all the time is a bit like looking through the wrong end of the telescope.
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How did plants and animals survive around 200 million years ago when the carbon dioxide concentration went up to 6,000 parts per million?

Paul Olsen, a geologist and paleontologist at Columbia Climate School’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, walked us through what scientists know about carbon dioxide levels over time, says Phys.org.

Although no one was around to measure the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration millions of years ago, paleoclimatologists can reconstruct past temperature and carbon dioxide levels using ice cores, tree rings, corals, ancient pollen, and sedimentary rocks.

These natural recorders of climate fluctuations can also reveal how various animals and plants thrived or perished during different geological periods.

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Credit: klimatetochskogen.nu


An expensive exercise in futility. As noted below, ‘the scheme will be able to process 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year, then later between five and six million tonnes. But that is just a tiny fraction of annual carbon emissions across Europe.’ Even Greenpeace opposes it. It’s for show, not for any useful purpose.
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On the shores of an island off Norway’s North Sea coast, engineers are building a burial ground for unwanted greenhouse gas, reports Phys.org.

The future terminal is to pump tonnes of liquefied carbon dioxide captured from the top of factory chimneys across Europe into cavities deep below the seabed.

The project in the western municipality of Oygarden aims to prevent the gas from entering the atmosphere and contributing to global warming.

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Brayton cycle [image credit: Wikipedia]


Efficiency gains can be made as ‘energy is lost turning steam back into water’, which doesn’t apply to the CO2. Whether the idea can be scaled up to full electricity grid level isn’t yet known.
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Sandia National Laboratories researchers recently delivered electricity produced by a new power-generating system to the Sandia-Kirtland Air Force Base electrical grid, says Green Car Congress.

The system uses heated supercritical carbon dioxide instead of steam to generate electricity and is based on a closed-loop Brayton cycle.

The Brayton cycle is named after 19th century engineer George Brayton, who developed this method of using hot, pressurized fluid to spin a turbine, much like a jet engine.

Supercritical carbon dioxide is a non-toxic, stable material that is under so much pressure it acts like both a liquid and a gas.

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Smoke from a California wildfire [image credit: BBC]


There’s a ‘fundamental design problem’, namely that the forests have an unfortunate tendency to burn down. Research finds it ‘incredibly unlikely’ that such schemes will work, and not only in California.
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Researchers have found that California’s forest carbon buffer pool, designed to ensure the durability of the state’s multi-billion-dollar carbon offset program, is severely undercapitalized, says Eurekalert.

The results show that, within the offset program’s first 10 years, estimated carbon losses from wildfires have depleted at least 95% of the contributions set aside to protect against all fire risks over 100 years.

This means that the buffer pool is unable to guarantee that credited forest carbon remains out of the atmosphere for at least 100 years.

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CO2 has nothing to do with ‘clean air’, hence these problems…

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

There are lots of happy reports on the Supreme Court’s ruling throwing out EPA’s so-called Clean Power Plan. Some go so far as to suggest that EPA is barred from regulating power plant CO2 emissions.

It is not quite that simple and the result is rather amusing. EPA is still required to regulate CO2 under the terms of the Clean Air Act, but that Act provides no way to do that regulation. The Clean Power Plan attempted to expand an obscure minor clause in the Act to do the job but SCOTUS correctly ruled that the clause does not confer that kind of massive authority.

EPA is between a rock and a hard place. It should tell Congress that it cannot do the job and needs a new law, along the lines of the SO2 law added to the Act in 1990, curbing emissions. But…

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CO2 is not pollution


They do at least discuss ‘the discrepancy between the constant increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the non-monotonic increase in global temperature’, which ought to be a strong hint that currently popular climate theories are not satisfactory. But is obsessing about 0.04% of the atmosphere, a large part of it naturally produced, ‘scientific’ anyway?
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Reducing the consumption of fossil fuels is not enough to prevent the world’s average annual temperature from rising by two or more degrees above pre-industrial levels, says Phys.org.

Russian scientists at NUST MISIS are convinced that global climate change cannot be stopped without the development of technologies for removing carbon dioxide from the air. The results of their study are presented in Thermal Engineering.

The anthropogenic factor is considered to be the main cause of climate change. The use of fossil fuels, agriculture and forestry are among the main drivers of global warming.

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That’s what it amounts to, even if the phrasing is different. Scenarios based on theories of climate that aren’t borne out by reality are the curse of modelling. All they seem to come up with is impossible demand reduction i.e. much less of everything – except renewables of course. It can’t get any better while their built-in CO2 obsession persists.
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Renewable energy transition won’t come fast enough to solve the climate crisis—we also need to reduce global energy consumption, according to new research from UNSW Sydney.

The research, published recently in Climate Policy, models different energy-use scenarios for reducing global energy-related CO2 emissions to zero by 2050, says Phys.org.

It found that simply substituting fossil fuels with renewable energy at current energy usage levels is no longer enough.

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Misleading climate models have a lot to answer for.

PA Pundits - International

By Dr. Jay Lehr and Robert Lyman~

That is a great question, and yes, there is a chance that it could happen. But it would not be meaningfully caused by humans burning fossil fuels and producing more CO2.

Additional CO2 in our atmosphere stopped having a meaningful role in the earth’s temperature when it reached 300 parts per million, and that portion of our atmosphere that absorbs CO2 was all used up. Seriously that is a fact. So today, adding any amount of more CO2 has no impact on climate whatever. If CO2 doubled from the present 420 parts per million (PPM) to 840 PPM, the earth would just get greener, and crops would increase their yields on every farm and every forest. There would be no negative impacts at all. Atomic submarines travel the world underwater with an average CO2 content of over 5,000 PPM. Yes, that is…

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Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy


One person’s point of view is another’s ‘misinformation’ it seems. The BBC and others of a climate alarmist persuasion don’t understand, or won’t accept, that in real science differences of opinion can’t just be switched off or stigmatised.
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A dozen scientists, politicians, and campaigners say they have been tricked into participating in online events promoting climate-change denial, say BBC News climate disinformation reporters.

The events were organised by the Creative Society, an international activist group that denies global warming is being caused by human activity.

The overwhelming majority of scientists agree greenhouse gases – which trap the Sun’s heat – are causing a rise in global temperatures.

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German hydrogen train [image credit: Euractiv]


The issue is leakage. In any case the notion of part of the supposed cure for ‘climate change’ being worse than the supposed disease is ironic. Germany imagines a future of so-called climate neutrality, a concept lacking any real-world meaning.
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German Economy Minister Robert Habeck plans to import hydrogen from all over the world to satisfy Germany’s hunger for energy despite a new study questioning the climate-friendliness of hydrogen transport, EURACTIV Germany reports.

One thing is clear to all politicians and experts: Germany is an energy importing country.

To move towards climate neutrality, the German government wants to rely primarily on importing hydrogen molecules from all over the world – efforts which have been further accelerated due to the war in Ukraine and Germany’s dependence on Russian energy imports.

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Bigger energy bills and decreasing reliability of energy supply are the only guaranteed results of climate-obsessed policies.
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With an energy cost crisis now striking Europe and to a lesser extent the U.S., some cracks have begun to appear in the “net zero” utopian dreams being pursued almost universally by Western politicians, says the Manhattan Contrarian.

Nevertheless, at this writing, the rapid elimination of use of fossil fuels, supposedly to fight “climate change,” remains official government policy throughout Europe, at the federal level in the U.S., in most blue American states, and as well in Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

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Summertime [image credit: BBC]


What evidence is there that such powers do exist? An air of unreality is palpable here, with talk of extreme dangers and use of decimal point temperature statements while brushing aside all uncertainties. Endless alarmism creates fatigue, not the fear they crave.
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UN scientists have unveiled a plan that they believe can limit the root causes of dangerous climate change, says BBC News.

A key UN body says in a report that there must be “rapid, deep and immediate” cuts in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Global emissions of CO2 would need to peak within three years to stave off the worst impacts.

Even then, the world would also need technology to suck CO2 from the skies by mid-century.

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The short answer to the climate question.

Science Matters

This post is about proving that CO2 changes in response to temperature changes, not the other way around, as is often claimed.  In order to do  that we need two datasets: one for measurements of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time and one for estimates of Global Mean Temperature changes over time.

Climate science is unsettling because past data are not fixed, but change later on.  I ran into this previously and now again in 2021 and 2022 when I set out to update an analysis done in 2014 by Jeremy Shiers (discussed in a previous post reprinted at the end).  Jeremy provided a spreadsheet in his essay Murray Salby Showed CO2 Follows Temperature Now You Can Too posted in January 2014. I downloaded his spreadsheet intending to bring the analysis up to the present to see if the results hold up.  The two sources of data were:

Temperature…

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The carbon cycle [credit: laurencenet.net]


Carbon cycle alarm has so far failed to materialise, this research finds.
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Researchers have constructed a new time series for global carbon emissions from deforestation, reports Phys.org.

The series is the missing link in terms of the improved understanding of the global carbon cycle, and it implies that the natural uptake of CO2 by the land and oceans is more efficient than previously assumed.

The study shows that carbon emissions from deforestation between the 1960s and 1980s were lower than previous studies had assumed.

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Caution – alarmist brainwashers at work. Never mind the ‘unrealistic’ climate models.
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Thirty-eight emails released under a recent FOI request provide an interesting insight into the way Government science advisers plotted to change Boris Johnson’s mind over the causes of climate change, ahead of a Cabinet Office presentation, says The Daily Sceptic.

The event on January 28th 2020 was led by the Government’s Chief Scientific Officer Sir Patrick Vallance and presented, using 11 slides, by the Chief Scientist of the Met Office, Professor Stephen Belcher.

According to Belcher, the stated goal of the presentation was to “stabilise climate which requires net zero emissions”.

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Biomass on the move [image credit: Drax]


The whole ‘net zero’ thing is a scandal in many ways, but at least some MPs are noticing one of the issues, even if partly for the wrong reason. Burning trees isn’t a solution to anything apart from papering over a few of the cracks in electricity supply caused by intermittent renewables.
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Burning wood to create power is a ‘scandal’, 50 MPs warn the energy minister in a letter today.

The letter – which has cross-party support – marks a major shift in political opinion over the burning of biomass, which is currently classed by the Government as a green form of energy, says the Daily Mail.

The letter says the extra emissions produced by biomass ‘are the equivalent of three million Ford Fiestas on our roads’.

Organised by Peter Bottomley, Father of the House of Commons, the letter calls for a meeting with Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng to discuss ending subsidies to the Drax power plant in Yorkshire.

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Only alarmists could be impressed by an alarmist echo chamber, and even that didn’t work on the street protesters. As CCD puts it: ‘what kind of conference is it that invites only people with one viewpoint?’
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King coal is dead, long live king coal! That might be a fitting epitaph for COP26, which mercifully ended last Friday, says Climate Change Dispatch.

It culminated with an agreement, which had not so much been watered down as to have virtually evaporated. Fossil fuels, it seems, are here for the foreseeable.

What went wrong? That’s a question the ‘deeply frustrated’ COP26 president Alok Sharma might well be asking himself.

He appeared to be close to tears at the denouement of the negotiations, pushed to emotional extremis by the last-minute wrangling over a single word: should we commit ourselves to phase out our use of coal, or phase- down our use of coal.

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Looking ahead to the days when children won’t know what central heating was? Probably not, although there’s a nod towards such scenarios here. Their 64x CO2 ‘experiment’ seems way over the top, but it’s only a model.
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The distant past of Earth and potentially its future include extremely warm ‘hothouse’ climate states, but little is known about how the atmosphere of our planet behaves in such states, says Sci-News.

“If you were to look at a large patch of the deep tropics today, it’s always raining somewhere,” said Dr. Jacob Seeley, a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard University.

“But we found that in extremely warm climates, there could be multiple days with no rain anywhere over a huge part of the ocean.”

“Then, suddenly, a massive rainstorm would erupt over almost the entire domain, dumping a tremendous amount of rain. Then it would be quiet for a couple of days and repeat.”

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Fine summer weather [image credit: BBC]

How many millions of years might that be then? Two, apparently: CO2 level ‘is greater than at any time in at least the past 2 million years’. What about earlier times? The caption to the first photo in the article reads: ‘The near future may be similar to the mid-Pliocene warm period a few million years ago.’ So natural variation is confined to history, and/or dependent on volcanoes? The article asserts: ‘the last warm period between ice ages peaked about 125,000 years ago—in contrast to today, warmth at that time was driven not by CO₂, but by changes in Earth’s orbit and spin axis.’ Now orbital factors have also switched themselves off? And so it goes on: our climate models say…
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Many numbers are swirling around the climate negotiations at the UN climate summit in Glasgow, COP26, says Phys.org.

These include global warming targets of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, recent warming of 1.1℃, remaining CO₂ budget of 400 billion tons, or current atmospheric CO₂ of 415 parts per million.

It’s often hard to grasp the significance of these numbers. But the study of ancient climates can give us an appreciation of their scale compared to what has occurred naturally in the past.

Our knowledge of ancient climate change also allows scientists to calibrate their models and therefore improve predictions of what the future may hold.

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Don’t mention their ’emissions’. As usual, the message will be: do as we say, not as we do.

PA Pundits - International

By Peter Murphy~

Everyone who matters from the Biden administration wants to be seen as ‘caring about the planet and doing something about climate change. They are now tripping all over themselves to head to the upcoming United Nations climate conference.

Nearly everyone else attending this conference will be looking for—actually, demanding—a handout from the U.S. and the other more economically advanced nations in the European Union (EU) and elsewhere.

President Joe Biden and at least 13 senior officials from his administration will be traveling to Glasgow, Scotland for the United Nation’s 26th Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (“UNFCC/COP26”). Conference attendees will be gathering, interestingly, on Halloween, with formal sessions starting the following day.

Accompanying the president will be Special Climate Envoy, John Kerry; Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken; the EPA administrator, the USAID administrator, secretaries of Energy, Interior and Transportation…

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