Archive for the ‘research’ Category


A compound found in algae can have a significant role in cloud formation, and is said to be ‘a major source of climate-cooling gases’. A study author suggests a ‘need to rethink’ what the climate impacts are.
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A common type of ocean algae plays a significant role in producing a massively abundant compound that helps cool the Earth’s climate, new research has discovered.

The findings of the study by the University of East Anglia (UEA) and Ocean University of China (OUC) could change our understanding of how these tiny marine organisms impact our planet, says Phys.org.

The work appears in Nature Microbiology.

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Another advance for solar-planetary theory. Some of the previous research of the HZDR group was mentioned in this Talkshop post last year. Our JEV (Jupiter-Earth-Venus) chart shown here covers 90 mean solar cycles, using the tropical orbit periods of the planets (verified on Arnholm’s solar simulator software). One point where we disagree slightly with Stefani’s HZDR group is the idea that the 193-year cycle they find is the de Vries cycle. We think not, because the de Vries cycle has a mean of 208.5~ years as Ian Wilson’s PRP paper on JEV theory explained, and other researchers have also found a similar period (say 205-210 years).
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Press release 27 May 2024: Researchers at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) and the University of Latvia have posited the first comprehensive physical explanation for the sun’s various activity cycles.

It identifies vortex-shaped currents on the sun, known as Rossby waves, as mediators between the tidal influences of Venus, Earth as well as Jupiter and the sun’s magnetic activity.

The researchers thus present a consistent model for solar cycles of different lengths – and another strong argument to support the previously controversial planetary hypothesis.

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It was found that in the current geologic era ‘researchers mistakenly attribute changes in carbon sequestration to other less certain factors, such as atmospheric CO2, water column temperature, and silicates and carbonates washed into the ocean by rivers’. They now say “we plan to use new simulations and models to better understand how differently shaped ocean floors will specifically affect the carbon cycle”. But what regulates what still has uncertainties.
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The movement of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans and continents—the carbon cycle—is a fundamental process that regulates Earth’s climate, claims Phys.org.

Some factors, like volcanic eruptions or human activity, emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Others, such as forests and oceans, absorb that CO2.
. . .
A new study finds that the shape and depth of the ocean floor explain up to 50% of the changes in depth at which carbon has been sequestered in the ocean over the past 80 million years.

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Article: ‘Since observational measurements started, blocking in the Arctic has increased, as has Arctic warming.’ When researchers investigated ‘they found a stunning correlation’. No mention of greenhouse gases in the study.
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A team of scientists led by François Lapointe, a research associate at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, has combined paleoclimatic data from the last 2,000 years with powerful computer modeling and in-the-field research on lake sediments and tree rings to show that an understudied phenomenon, known as atmospheric blocking, has long influenced temperature swings in the Arctic.

As temperatures warm due to climate change, claims EurekAlert, atmospheric blocking will help drive ever-wilder weather events. [Talkshop comment – routine alarmist hype].

The study focused on the Norwegian Arctic archipelago, Svalbard, at the edge of the Arctic Ocean, and was published in Nature Communications.

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NASA says: “There are many different factors that influence the sea ice. We’re measuring them to determine which were most important to melting ice this summer.” Where does that leave so-called ‘state-of-the-art’ climate models? They’re only going to be measuring seasonal factors, not longer-term cycles for example, but it’s at least an attempt to look harder at the whole topic.
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It’s not just rising air and water temperatures influencing the decades-long decline of Arctic sea ice, says NASA (via Phys.org).

Clouds, aerosols, even the bumps and dips on the ice itself can play a role.

To explore how these factors interact and impact sea ice melting, NASA is flying two aircraft equipped with scientific instruments over the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland this summer.

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That’s the title of the study, looking at an area that ‘covers approximately 2000 kilometers of coastline and contains as much ice as the entire Greenland Ice Sheet.’ This article shouldn’t be relied on entirely due to obvious alarmist biases, so maybe better to read at least the abstract of the study for a clearer picture. For example [quote from the Discussion]: ‘This positive accumulation trend and positive mass balance is anticipated to persist as snowfall is expected to increase over the entire EAIS in the next century.’
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A whaler’s forgotten aerial photos from 1937 have given researchers at the University of Copenhagen the most detailed picture of the ice evolution in East Antarctica to date, says EurekAlert.

The results show that the ice has remained stable and even grown slightly over almost a century, though scientists observe early signs of weakening [Talkshop comment – a somewhat loose interpretation of the actual study].

The research offers new insights that enhance predictions of ice changes and sea level rise [Talkshop comment – climatist waffle, see the study].
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Using hundreds of old aerial photographs dating back to 1937, combined with modern computer technology, the researchers have tracked the evolution of glaciers in East Antarctica. The area covers approximately 2000 kilometers of coastline and contains as much ice as the entire Greenland Ice Sheet.

By comparing the historical aerial photos with modern satellite data, the researchers have been able to determine whether the glaciers have retreated or advanced and whether they have thickened or thinned.

The study reveals that the ice has not only remained stable but grown slightly over the last 85 years, partly due to increasing snowfall.

“We constantly hear about climate change and new melt records, so it’s refreshing to observe an area of glaciers that has remained stable for almost a century,” says PhD student Mads Dømgaard, the study’s first author.

Full article here.
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Study: Early aerial expedition photos reveal 85 years of glacier growth and stability in East Antarctica (May 2024)


Due to a 2020 shipping regulation…’The net planetary heat uptake has increased by 0.25 Wm−2 since 2020, making the 0.2 Wm−2 due to IMO2020 nearly 80% of the total increase.’ The study also says: ‘The 2023 record warmth is within the ranges of our expected trajectory. The magnitude of IMO2020 induced warming means that the observed strong warming in 2023 will be a new norm in the 2020 s.’ — Two general comments to make here: (1) cloud physics is admitted to be not well understood, and (2) could night-time clear(er) skies mean (more) cooling, in theory at least?
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An 80% reduction in sulphur dioxide shipping emissions observed in early 2020 could be associated with substantial atmospheric warming over some ocean regions, according to a modelling study published in Communications Earth & Environment.

The sudden decline in emissions was a result of the introduction of the International Maritime Organization’s 2020 regulation (IMO 2020), which reduced the maximum sulphur content allowed in shipping fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% to help reduce air pollution, says EurekAlert.

Fuel oil used for large ships has a significantly higher percentage content of sulphur than fuels used in other vehicles. Burning this fuel produces sulphur dioxide, which reacts with water vapour in the atmosphere to produce sulphate aerosols.

These aerosols cool the Earth’s surface in two ways: by directly reflecting sunlight back to space [Talkshop comment – daytime effect only]; and by affecting cloud cover.

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What happened to the settled science? Of course the spin will be that only refinements are needed, which call for more data, but that suggests a measure of uncertainty that isn’t supposed to exist. Climate theory can be something of a shapeshifter when results aren’t as per alarmist forecast.
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NASA’s Earth System Explorers Program selected four proposals to study greenhouse gases, the ozone layer, ocean currents, and ice changes, says NASA/JPL (via SciTechDaily).

Each will get $5 million for a one-year study before NASA picks two for future launches.

Four proposals have been selected by NASA for concept studies of missions to help us better understand Earth science key focus areas for the benefit of all, including greenhouse gases, the ozone layer, ocean surface currents, and changes in ice and glaciers around the world.

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Professor Harald Yndestad writes (here): ‘The Kola-section data analysis revealed, for the first time, that Arctic climate variations are controlled by the earth’s rotation and the moon’. He refers to ‘the riddle of a 6-year cycle in the cod population’ and comments: ‘My estimates reveal we are at a turning point and moving into a colder period and more ice extent.’ The 6-year cycle reminded me of a Talkshop post featuring a paper by astronomer Willy de Rop, in which he wrote, with illustrations: ‘We will now consider how often such a situation of maximum tides will occur. The perigee moves 0.164 358 002 0 a day relative to the node, corresponding to 360° in a period p 2 190.340565 days. If at the same time this moment of maximum influence coincides with the moment at which the Earth is in the perihelion of its orbit, the tides will reach an absolute maximum. So, when the perigee of the Moon’s orbit coincides with the ascending node, then this situation repeats after 2190.340565 days. This period p corresponds to 5.996 667 350 anomalistic years, thus nearly an entire number of anomalistic years.’ In other words, almost six years. It’s the beat period of the (lunar) anomalistic and tropical months, also of the full moon cycle and draconic year. Whether this plays a part in the cod discussion is an open question.
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In nature, nothing acts alone, writes Prof. Harald Yndestad. Therefore, something outside the cod stock, causes recruitment in periods of 6 years.

The source may be a 6-year temperature cycle in the Barents Sea. If the temperature in the Barents Sea has a period of 6 years, it must also have a source outside the Barents Sea. This means that there must be a first cause. A cause of causes, for temperature variations in the Barents Sea.

So, what is periodic in nature? Could the source be the tides or in the earth’s rotation? I contacted an astrophysicist.

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Let’s hope this is not going to be used as another excuse to pretend alarmist predictions from climate models have improved, just because some extra data is being fed in.
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A brand new satellite that will revolutionize our understanding of the role clouds and aerosol particles play in climate change is set to launch after more than 30 years of planning, says the University of Reading (via Phys.org).

The EarthCARE satellite is the brainchild of the University of Reading’s Professor Anthony Illingworth. Conceived in 1993, the project was adopted by the European Space Agency (ESA) in 2004.

The satellite is set to blast off from California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base on board one of Elon Musk’s SpaceX rockets, scheduled for launch no earlier than Tuesday 28 May 2024.

The mission is a testament to the power of U.K. and international collaboration and the importance of long-term, dedicated research. The satellite, equipped with four cutting-edge instruments, will provide unprecedented insights into the complex interactions between clouds, aerosols, and Earth’s climate.

This data will be invaluable in shaping our understanding of climate change and informing future climate adaptation and mitigation policies.

Professor Anthony Illingworth, Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Reading, said, “When we first started dreaming up this project, I never imagined I would be flying out to the United States to watch our satellite launch 30 years later.

“It’s been a long and challenging journey with an amazing team of dedicated scientists and engineers from the U.K. and abroad. Together, we’ve created something truly remarkable that will change the way we understand our planet.

“The data we gather from EarthCARE will be invaluable in helping us observe the precise mechanisms involved in how clouds and dust reflect and absorb heat. This will make our predictions for the future of our climate even more precise, meaning we can make more informed decisions about how to mitigate and adapt to the challenges posed by a warming world.

“The extraordinary data we receive will help us create a more sustainable future for our planet. It’s a humbling and thrilling experience to be part of something so significant.”
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Currently, climate models do not agree on how effective clouds and aerosols are at influencing the impact of global warming. For example, if there were fewer cloudy days in the future, less energy from the sun would be reflected back into space, which would increase the rate of climate warming.

EarthCARE’s new observations will help scientists to develop more precise climate models, which will significantly improve climate predictions and lead to more informed policy decisions.

Full article here.


The article here takes the climate alarm view, as usual with this source, and concludes that ‘risk assessments used by lenders are a boon for the oil and gas industry’. Oh dear! Maybe the fact that oil and gas are still in huge demand and tend to generate large profits, while renewables are expensive and require large subsidies, has something to do with it?
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The financial sector is among the world’s most heavily regulated industries – and for good reason, says The Conversation.

Financial rules, which force banks to hold capital in reserve when making riskier investments, are designed to prevent financial crises. Other financial regulations, such as accounting rules, aim to provide investors with a credible valuation of their financial assets.

However, new research I conducted with my colleagues shows that some of these rules may have unintended consequences for the low-carbon transition.

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Having been told by the UN-IPCC that nature’s own carbon cycle isn’t up to the job any more, the manufactured problem for climate-obsessed governments seems to be the lack of any ‘carbon removal’ method that is (a) affordable and (b) effective, in terms of the scale of the supposed need. Such is the strange world of climate policy today.
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New research involving the University of East Anglia (UEA) suggests that countries’ current plans to remove CO2 from the atmosphere will not be enough to comply with the 1.5ºC warming limit set out under the Paris Agreement, says Phys.org.

Since 2010, the United Nations environmental organization UNEP has taken an annual measurement of the emissions gap—the difference between countries’ climate protection pledges and what is necessary to limit global heating to 1.5ºC, or at least below 2ºC [Talkshop comment – according to unproven IPCC climate theories].

The UNEP Emissions Gap Reports are clear: climate policy needs more ambition. This new study now explicitly applies this analytical concept to carbon dioxide removal (CDR)—the removal of the most important greenhouse gas, CO2, from the atmosphere.

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Henrik Svensmark’s research group has been busy again. This article says clouds are ‘the largest source of uncertainty in predicting future climate change’. Climate models may need another revision.
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Cloud cover, one of the biggest regulators of Earth’s climate, is easier to affect than previously thought, says Eurekalert.

A new analysis of cloud measurements from outside the coast of California, combined with global satellite measurements, reveals that even aerosol particles as small as 25-30 nanometers may contribute to cloud formation.

Hence, the climate impact of small aerosols may be underestimated.

Clouds are among the least understood entities in the climate system and the largest source of uncertainty in predicting future climate change.

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A ‘Holy Grail’ explanation of a process in nature’s carbon cycle is claimed.
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A mystery that has puzzled the scientific community for over 50 years has finally been solved, says EurekAlert.

A team from Linköping University, Sweden, and Helmholtz Munich have discovered that a certain type of chemical reaction can explain why organic matter found in rivers and lakes is so resistant to degradation.

Their study has been published in the journal Nature.

“This has been the holy grail within my field of research for over 50 years”, says Norbert Hertkorn, scientist in analytical chemistry previously at Helmholtz Munich and currently at Linköping University.

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The researchers say the effect can be substantial and call it ‘a major part of the picture’. Under the optimum conditions of color, angle, and polarization “the evaporation rate is four times the thermal limit.” It was reported last year but this paper was only accepted last month. That report said: ‘The phenomenon might play a role in the formation and evolution of fog and clouds, and thus would be important to incorporate into climate models to improve their accuracy, the researchers say.’ The best incident angle for the light is 45°, according to the pre-print.
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It’s the most fundamental of processes—the evaporation of water from the surfaces of oceans and lakes, the burning off of fog in the morning sun, and the drying of briny ponds that leaves solid salt behind, says Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT, via Phys.org).

Evaporation is all around us, and humans have been observing it and making use of it for as long as we have existed.

And yet, it turns out, we’ve been missing a major part of the picture all along.

In a series of painstakingly precise experiments, a team of researchers at MIT has demonstrated that heat isn’t alone in causing water to evaporate.

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Only at night though, it seems. “It’s a story with a lot of plot twists”, said a Mars project scientist. Saturn’s moon Titan is awash with methane, but no sign of life present or past, so why should Mars having some be a surprise?
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The most surprising revelation from NASA’s Curiosity Mars Rover—that methane is seeping from the surface of Gale Crater—has scientists scratching their heads, says Phys.org.

Living creatures produce most of the methane on Earth [Talkshop comment – really?]. But scientists haven’t found convincing signs of current or ancient life on Mars, and thus didn’t expect to find methane there.

Yet, the portable chemistry lab aboard Curiosity, known as SAM, or Sample Analysis at Mars, has continually sniffed out traces of the gas near the surface of Gale Crater, the only place on the surface of Mars where methane has been detected thus far.

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It seems ‘classical dust cycle models have over-estimated the amount of dust emission.’ This in turn affects the results from climate models, which ‘have only been providing a fraction of the story’. This ‘has significant implications’ for reconstructions of past climate.
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You may think of dust as an annoyance to be vacuumed and disposed of, but actually, on a grander scale, it is far more important than most people realize, says Phys.org.

Globally, dust plays a critical role in regulating our climate, radiation balance, nutrient cycles, soil formation, air quality and even human health.

But our understanding of it has been hampered by limitations in current mathematical models. These models, built on methods developed decades ago, struggle to accurately simulate the properties and quantities of dust.

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The paper, Weak anvil cloud area feedback suggested by physical and observational constraints, says in the section headed ‘Implications of uncertainty’: ‘A rigorous assessment of the anvil cloud area feedback was lacking because the confounding factors of cloud overlap and a changing cloud radiative effect on the feedback could not be accounted for.’ However, in the article at EurekAlert we find: ‘New analysis based on simple equations has reduced uncertainty about how clouds will affect future climate change’. A somewhat mixed picture there. The chicken/egg climate/clouds ‘conundrum’ remains.
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Clouds have two main effects on global temperature – cooling the planet by reflecting sunlight, and warming it by acting as insulation for Earth’s radiation.

The impact of clouds is the largest area of uncertainty in global warming predictions.

In the new study, researchers from the University of Exeter and the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in Paris created a model that predicts how changes in the surface area of anvil clouds (storm clouds common in the tropics) will affect global warming.

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Sand batteries ahead? It’s no secret that sand holds heat quite well.
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Have you ever raced across a hot beach and noticed how warm the sand gets?

That simple experience hints at a powerful idea that could change how we store energy, says Knowridge.

Researchers are now looking at heated sand as a promising solution to store energy for the future.

Unlike the batteries we usually think of for storing energy, this method offers a new and potentially game-changing approach.

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The BBC wants this to be all about the climate, but the study is also pushing the propaganda boat out a long way by claiming that ‘we’ are the cause. It’s known that the Earth’s rotation isn’t constant. ‘In 2022 the International Bureau of Weights and Measures (BIPM), the organization responsible for global timekeeping, voted to abolish leap seconds by 2035. How this new research could impact such a decision remains to be seen.’ Source – Scientific American, which also has this:
“Despite our perceptions as humans, the Earth is not a perfect timekeeper,” says Harvard University geophysicist Jerry X. Mitrovica, who reviewed the new study and co-wrote a commentary on it for Nature. He says these findings highlight the divide between our lived experience and the technology that surrounds us. “How do we handle that divide?” he says. “Do we continue to address this divide by adding or subtracting seconds from our definition of a day, or do we accept this irregular difference as normal and give up the bother of continuously correcting?” — If it’s normal, the human causation argument looks even weaker.

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Climate change is affecting the speed of the Earth’s rotation and could impact how we keep time, a study says.

Accelerating melt from Greenland and Antarctica is adding extra water to the world’s seas, redistributing mass, reports BBC News.

That is very slightly slowing the Earth’s rotation. But the planet is still spinning faster than it used to.

The effect is that global timekeepers may need to subtract a second from our clocks later than would otherwise have been the case.

“Global warming is already affecting global timekeeping,” says the study, published in the journal Nature.

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) – which is used by most of the world to regulate clocks and time – is calculated by the Earth’s rotation.

But the Earth’s rotation rate is not constant and can therefore have an effect on how long our days and nights are.

As a result, since the 1970s around 27 seconds – known as leap seconds – have been added on to keep our time accurate.

The study finds that a “negative leap second” – subtracting a second from world clocks – would have been needed in 2026 without accelerating polar ice melt.

But now, with ice sheets losing mass five times faster than they were 30 years ago, this change is needed in 2029, the study suggests.

“It’s kind of impressive, even to me, we’ve done something that measurably changes how fast the Earth rotates,” Duncan Agnew, the author of the study, told NBC News. [Talkshop comment – ‘we’?]

Full report here.