Archive for August, 2013

Met Office provisional summer weather report for UK

Posted: August 31, 2013 by tchannon in weather
Short stalk wheat ready for harvest 27th Aug 2013 at 725 ft asl central southern England. 51.352847° -1.472144° Photo (c)2013 Tim Channon

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

The UK Met Office released a “provisional” report Friday evening (30th Aug 2013), ie. before the weekend. The media will wait for finals, no other source for Met Office statements.

30 August 2013 – Provisional Met Office statistics for this summer (June, July and August) show that this year has seen the warmest, driest and sunniest summer since 2006.

Nothing is going to change, still strikes me as peculiar and especially after asking the press office when a prior provisional was going to be formalised: answer, we won’t.

The web press release follows: –


Is this where the missing heat is going?

Posted: August 30, 2013 by tchannon in Carbon cycle, Energy

Co-moderator writes: things are quiet so I’ve copied the following article across from my own blog for comment here; point out what is wrong with the idea.

Put simply, photosynthesis uses high grade radiative flux (ie. light) to do chemistry. This literally removes the flux from inside the earth radiative balance equation, converted into latent energy. What is removed no longer exists and does not have to be radiated away from earth.

The process is less than 100% efficient, so a proportion of the flux is waste heat which is part of the normally described energy balance.

In addition there is fair evidence the biosphere has been expanding.

Keep in mind this only happens dayside. Lot of ocean too.

I think this needs better quantifying, is it really negligible given the supposed energy imbalance is tiny.



OKAY, right, Belgians do humour, Solar Influences Data Analysis Center have put this image as an entrance to a news article on solar polar field reversals, a subject I hope is of interest to Talkshop readers.

For the current solar cycle 24 (SC24), the reversal on the Sun’s north pole has been going on now for about a year or two, with positive and negative polarities alternating each other for the above mentioned reasons. It seems that only right now, the reversal on the north pole has become permanent. This still has to be confirmed in the months ahead. The reversal at the south pole seems to have only just begun (mid-2013). Therefore, a complete reversal still seems quite a few months away.

SIDC home page here, you know where to go


More on the Golden Ratio

and the Fibonacci Series


by Miles Mathis : First posted March 16, 2013

A couple of years ago I wrote a long paper on the golden ratio, showing how the unified field caused a
field constraint that could lead to the golden ratio in natural situations. I now have something
important to add to that.

That paper was somewhat complex as a matter of influences and kinematics, but this one will be much
simpler. I was looking at a simplified expression of the golden ratio today, one I wrote myself instead
of getting it from the textbooks, and it led me in a somewhat different direction. The golden ratio is
commonly written in terms of φ, which has the value 1.618. But it can also be written in terms of what
is called the conjugate Φ, which has the value of .618.

Historically, that was the initial esoteric thing about the golden ratio: it was the number that had an
inverse that was equal to 1 + itself.


The Physics behind

the Golden Ratio

by Miles Mathis : First posted January 11, 2011

Abstract: I will show the mechanical cause of the golden ratio in physical problems. I will do this by expanding the variables in the math to include the ambient field. I will show that this field, which is the charge field or the unified field, is both the cause and the medium of the golden ratio in physical problems. It is the physical constraint that pushes the numbers into golden ratio.

As a place to begin, the problem is perhaps best put this way: “Why should the larger member seek a size or position that balances the smaller member and the sum? And how could the two members position or re-position themselves, once this balance was chosen?” In other words, we require a feedback mechanism. The two bodies that “seek” the golden ratio would require a form of communication. This has always seemed mysterious, since it is not clear that plants, celestial bodies, etc., could communicate in this way. But now that we have discovered the charge field, and shown that it is a real mechanical field already existing in the field equations of Newton and Einstein, we may look at this problem anew.


NowindFrom the Telegraph:

Owen Paterson, the Environment Secretary, has commissioned a consultancy to investigate whether renewable technologies – including wind turbines – lower house prices in the countryside.

Chris Heaton-Harris, the Conservative MP for Daventry, said:

“Wind farms definitely affect house prices and it is highly likely that this report will come to that conclusion…I would expect there to be billions of pounds of planning blight because of wind turbines close to properties…. It’s almost like elements of DECC are acting like a mafia … now you’ve got DECC trying to stick its dirty great footprints all over another department’s work. While this is unsurprising, it will all unravel in the end and I’m sure the evidence will come out soon that proves a number of these points correct.”

He said that one of his constituents had seen the value of their £700,000 property fall by £250,000 because of approved plans for a wind turbine.


My interest was piqued yesterday when I thought it might be an idea to compare Tim Channon’s simple model of solar variation with the Carbon 14 record. Carbon 14 is thought to be an indicator of solar variation. Wikipedia has this plot:


Wikipedia plot of Carbon 14 related to solar activity events. Caution: this is completely wrong – Do not re-use

The problem with this plot, as with so many things in climate science, is that it is upside down and completely wrong.


Reposted from co-blogger Tim Channon’s own blog for continuity of pre-running discussion here at the talkshop. In Ian WIlson’s Halstatt cycle thread, R.J. Salvador created a model of solar cycle evolution using Ian’s tidal/torque JEV theoretical periods, and has achieved an r^2=0.85 correlation. Here, Tim pares back the complexity to a minimum, so we can see what we can see. Over to Tim:

Preamble, do not take this work too literally. the intent is food for thought.

Figure 1

Recent very long free thinking discussion (paged comments) on Tallbloke’s Talkshop evolved into trying to create a model of astronomical effect on the sun of planetary parameters, a longstanding tantalising problem where “ought to” and reality throw buns. Probably fits the tales of the farmer of old leaning on the farm gate chewing straw watching fools trying to get the cart under the bridge. Won’t fit but watching is fun. Lets hope that one day more is learnt.

I can play too, know a bit about the local bridge.


This is a repost of an adaptation from Jim Steele’s book  Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism. New talkshop contributor ‘docrichard’ should read it.


Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University posted at WUWT on July 22nd 2013

Global warming theory predicts that rising levels of CO2 will gradually warm the air and cause an increasing loss of sea ice. As temperatures rise, ice nearer the equator was predicted to be the first to disappear and over the coming decades ice closer to the poles would be the last to melt. However that is not the reality we are now observing. Antarctic sea ice is mostly located outside the Antarctic Circle (Figure 1) and should be the first to melt due to global warming theory. Yet Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and expanding towards the equator contradicting all the models. As Dr. Laura Landrum from the National Center for Atmospheric Research wrote, “Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six [model] ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979.”10 (see Figure 2)


Police Clear Way for Fracking at Balcombe

Posted: August 23, 2013 by tallbloke in alarmism, Legal, Shale gas



There were fewer than 100 protesters left tonight at a potential fracking site as they finally admitted defeat to the police. More than 1,200 activists had brought exploratory shale gas drilling to a halt on the edge of the village of Balcombe, West Sussex, at the weekend. But after officers from more than 10 police forces pushed back campaigners from the site’s entrance allowing lorries to enter on Monday, they left in their droves. –Ryan Kisiel, Daily Mail, 22 August 2013
Protesters against fracking risk worsening the plight of the five million households struggling to pay their energy bills, Britain’s official fuel poverty adviser has warned. Ministers have a “duty” to promote the extraction of shale gas because it has the potential to drive down the cost of energy, according to the chairman of the Fuel Poverty Advisory Group. Derek Lickorish says that “the voice of the fuel poor has been lost in the current frenzy” at Balcombe, West Sussex, where the energy company Cuadrilla Resources has been targeted by anti-fracking protesters. –Tim Webb, The Times, 21 August 2013


Professor Banks is a colourful character, and his essays are entertaining to read, if you have an hour. I’ve edited this one for brevity. He did ask me to put a synopsis of his qualifications at the top though, so bear with me and read on.

stumpsProfessor Ferdinand E. Banks (Uppsala University, Sweden), performed his undergraduate studies at Illinois Institute of Technology (electrical engineering) and Roosevelt University (Chicago), graduating with honors in economics. He also attended the University of Maryland and UCLA. He has the MSc from Stockholm University and the PhD from Uppsala University. He has been visiting professor at five universities in Australia, two universities in France, The Czech University (Prague), Stockholm University, Nanyang Technical University in Singapore, and has held energy economics (guest) professorships in France (Grenoble), Hongkong, and the Asian Institute of Technology (Bangkok).



Reposted for discussion from Ian Wilson’s blog Astro-Climate Connection


Direct instrumental observations of the Sun since 1610 have shown that the level of sunspot activity on the Sun has a mean periodicity of 22.3 years, known as the Hale cycle. In addition, these observations of the Sun have shown that there are longer-term periodicities present in the level of solar activity.

One of the most prominent long-term cycles that have been identified is the ~210 year de Vries (Suess) cycle. However, because of the limited time over which instrumental observations have been available, the confirmation of the de Vries cycle [1] has required the use of proxies such as de-trended δC14 from tree rings [2,3], Be10 levels in the GRIP ice cores [4,5,6], and dust profiles in GISP2 ice cores [7].  These proxy observations have indicated that:

a) the de Vries cycle amplitude varies with a period of about 2200 years [6]. In other words, its appearance is intermittent in nature.

b)  the largest amplitude of the de Vries cycle are found near Hallstatt cycle minima centered at 8,200, 5,500, 2,500 and 800 B.P .[6]

c) grand solar minima occur preferentially at minima of the Hallstatt cycle that are characterized by large de Vries cycle amplitudes [6].

d) the cycle length is somewhere in the range 205 – 210 years, with the more precise estimates being in the range 207-208 years.


Well done Electronic Frontier Foundation. Cyber-bullies like the NSA need to be told to EFF off.


In response to EFF’s FOIA lawsuit, the government has released the 2011 FISA court opinion ruling some NSA surveillance unconstitutional.

For over a year, EFF has been fighting the government in federal court to force the public release of an 86-page opinion of the secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC). Issued in October 2011, the secret court’s opinion found that surveillance conducted by the NSA under the FISA Amendments Act was unconstitutional and violated “the spirit of” federal law.

Today, EFF can declare victory: a federal court ordered the government to release records in our litigation, the government has indicated it intends to release the opinion today, and ODNI has called a 3:00 ET press conference to discuss “issues” with FISA Amendments Act surveillance, which we assume will include a discussion of the opinion.


It’ll be interesting to see what effect, if any, this new policy has on submission volumes;

freethedataThe EGU open access journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD) has implemented some radical new policies that apply to papers published in the journal. The changes are highlighted in an editorial recently published in GMD.

The new policies include the requirement that, from now on, authors must provide the actual computer code of their models to the reviewers or editor as part of the review process. Furthermore, authors are required to include a section in the paper itself discussing the availability of their code to the wider community. If the authors choose not to make their code available to the community, then they must describe the reasons for this.

The GMD executive editors hope these changes will improve the transparency and rigour of model development in the geosciences.


It’s the late melt season and speculation about the Arctic reaches fever itch over the next few weeks. or maybe not, since the alarmists seem rather muted this year. perhaps it’s because the ice extent is higher and temperatures lower than last year. NoTrickZone contributor Jimbo has put together a number of prognostications from previous years:

polar-bearsXinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
__________________ – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]


Spot the error. The IPCC can’t
by Tony Thomas : August 19, 2013

Leaked reports of the Fifth IPCC Report, due next month, say the IPCC experts are now 95% sure that human activities and emissions are the main cause of global warming since the 1950s.[1]

The same IPCC experts remain 100% sure that the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are homes to tropical forests, and that they have been since 1995.


But given a doubling of global CO2, they expect the central US tropical forest belt to shift eastwards to Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois, even stretching east to Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Looking at my own part of the world, I see that the IPCC has Papua-New Guinea, Indonesia and the Philippines currently covered in savannas, dry forests and woodlands. But with global CO2 doubling, the prairies of south-east Asia will surge northwards to Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, even southern China.

India, as in the map below, acquires tropical forests through about 70% of its area. For some reason, the IPCC’s tropical forest belt of northern Australia (most Aussies believe it is gum-tree land) advances south by about 1000km, such that tourists towns like Cairns and Townsville become surrounded by Congo-like vegetation, suitable for imported bonobos and, maybe, okapi.

Turning to South America, the Amazon rainforest is already mysteriously transformed by the IPCC into savannas, which with CO2 doubling will advance across the whole top half of South America.


science-v-politics-cartoonFrom New Zealand’s National Business Review:

The Prime Minister’s Chief Science Adviser, Sir Peter Gluckman, has done us all a favour and provided a textbook illustration of the difference between science and non-science.

His recent report, New Zealand’s Changing Climate and Oceans, boldly predicts an average temperature increase of 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2090. That prediction is the key give-away. It’s not science; it’s prophecy.

Science makes bold and surprising predictions but about the here and now, not a hundred years hence. The difference is that scientific predictions are testable whereas prophecies aren’t.
We won’t know for a hundred years whether Sir Peter’s prediction stacks up and the historical experience with prophecies is that there are always excuses when their time is up.

But that’s not all. The Gluckman Report tiresomely declares there’s scientific consensus for the theory of human-induced catastrophic global warming. But so what? Consensus is the cachet of politics, not science. Consensus was precisely what Galileo was up against.

It’s not what people think or say that matters in science but what objective reality does.


Heh. Heheh.

Real Science

ScreenHunter_319 Aug. 16 23.39

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Heartbreaking to know that all that ice in the map below is going to suddenly disappear – because you didn’t buy a hybrid.

ScreenHunter_296 Aug. 16 06.01

View original post

H/T to @DocRichard for flagging up this important step along the road to the misunderstanding of the causes of Earth’s balmy surface temperature. If anyone can find the full paper let me know.

E. O. Hulburt
Naval Research Laboratory

Received 9 October 1931; published in the issue dated November 1931

From the known amounts of the various gases of the atmosphere from sea level to about 20 km, from the observed light absorption coefficients of the gases and from the albedo of the earth’s surface the temperature of the atmosphere in radiative equilibrium is calculated on the assumption that the sunlight is the only source of energy. The calculation is perhaps more rigorous than has hitherto been attempted, although it contains a number of approximations. The sea level temperature comes out to be about 19° above the observed world-wide average value 287°K, and the temperature above about 3 km falls many degrees below the observed temperatures. The temperature gradient in levels from 3 to 6 km is greater than that of convective equilibrium and hence the atmosphere would not be dynamically stable if radiation equilibrium prevailed. Therefore air currents take place to bring about convective equilibrium. Continuing the calculation it is found that only when the convective region extends to about 12 km (as is observed), with radiative equilibrium above 12 km (as is observed), does the atmosphere satisfy the conditions of dynamic stability and thermal equilibrium with the received solar energy. For this case the calculated sea level temperature is 290°K in good agreement with the observed value 287°K. Calculation shows that doubling or tripling the amount of the carbon dioxide of the atmosphere increases the average sea level temperature by about 4° and 7°K, respectively; halving or reducing to zero the carbon dioxide decreases the temperature by similar amounts. Such changes in temperature are about the same as those which occur when the earth passes from an ice age to a warm age, or vice versa. Thus the calculation indicates that the carbon dioxide theory of the ice ages, originally proposed by Tyndall, is a possible theory.