Archive for the ‘sea ice’ Category

US Coastguard icebreaker [credit: NSIDC]

US Coastguard icebreaker [credit: NSIDC]


Once again reports of the imminent death of Arctic sea ice have been greatly exaggerated. As even the pro-alarmist BBC has conceded, ‘to understand Arctic sea ice requires measurement of both area and thickness’, and it turns out that sea ice volume is well above the lowest recorded level for the time of year.

BBC: Although Arctic sea ice set a record this year for its lowest ever winter extent – that was not the case for its volume, new data reveals.

Europe’s Cryosat spacecraft routinely monitors the thickness of floes in the far north.

The thinnest winter ice it has ever seen was in 2013. This February, in contrast, the Arctic floes were about 25cm (17%) thicker on average.

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oldbrew:

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But some optimists still think global warming is about to make a comeback.

Originally posted on sunshine hours:

Antarctica set a daily record for day 91. The old record was from 2014 and was broken by only 12,000 sq km.

This would be the 21st Daily Record for 2015.

The “streak” just shows the place for each day so for example Jan 1 was 2nd highest, Jan 2 was a record etc :

2111111111111111111112233322222222222345555554555444444565435555555554434333332222222333331

Antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_91_1981-2010

Global_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_91_1981-2010  Arctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_91_1981-2010

DataSouth / North

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Going nowhere

Going nowhere


Trend or exception: after two consecutive winters with 90% freeze-overs of the North American Great Lakes, plus this assessment(see below), what are the chances of an ‘Arctic death spiral’ as trumpeted in certain quarters over recent years?

Christopher Booker reports in the Sunday Telegraph (h/t GWPF):
As Britain emerges from an unusually sunny and comparatively mild winter, spare a thought for the people of eastern Canada, still in the grip of their most terrifying winter for decades. Recent pictures online of “Photographic proof that Canada’s east coast is basically the ice planet Hoth” show hapless residents standing below ice cliffs and snow drifts 20ft high. This month the Globe and Mail of Toronto, which endured its coldest February on record, described 2015 for Canada’s Atlantic provinces as having been like living in a “prison of snow and ice”.

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Tackling Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC / BAS]

Tackling Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC / BAS]


There seems no end in sight to the long-term growth of seasonal Antarctic sea ice, reports RTCC (link below). This continues to ‘baffle scientists’, to quote the usual expression.

‘Conventional’ climate theories can’t account for this phenomenon except by stretching the existing logic to the limit and beyond.

Sea ice coverage in the Antarctic continues to increase, according to data released on Thursday by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The ocean’s sea ice levels were 44.6% higher than the 1981-2010 average, breaking a previous record set in 2008 by 220,000 square miles.

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BBC News – Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014

Posted: December 15, 2014 by oldbrew in climate, sea ice
On tour in the Arctic [credit: US Navy]

On tour in the Arctic
[credit: US Navy]

Now that the so-called ‘climate summit’ is out of the way, the BBC finds itself forced to admit that reports of the impending death of Arctic sea ice were greatly exaggerated. There’s even talk of ‘modest growth’ – shock horror!

Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than many observers recognise.

While global warming seems to have set the polar north on a path to floe-free summers, the latest data from Europe’s Cryosat mission suggests it may take a while yet to reach those conditions.

[Straw-clutching going on there?]

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Warm year brings more sea ice

Posted: November 13, 2014 by oldbrew in sea ice, Uncertainty

Ice melt [credit: BBC]

Ice melt [credit: BBC]


The US NOAA offers its ‘Global Summary Information – September 2014′ here.

Three quotes from their ‘state of the climate’ summary [bold added]:

‘The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for September 2014 was the highest for September since record keeping began in 1880.’

‘Between the annual maximum extent that occurred in March and the minimum extent, the Arctic lost 3.82 million square miles of ice during the 2014 melt season, the ninth most on record but the least since 2006.’

‘The average September Antarctic sea ice extent was 7.73 million square miles, 480,000 square miles (6.60 percent) above the 1981–2010 average. This was the largest September average Antarctic sea ice extent on record and the largest average Antarctic sea ice extent for any month. This bested the previous September Antarctic sea ice extent record set last year by approximately 80,000 square miles. Much-above-average sea ice was observed in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean areas.’
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In the same year there’s said to be a record-equalling high for global average temperature, the least Arctic sea ice melt since 2006 and record Antarctic sea ice extent.

Interesting. What price the much-touted ice-free Arctic any time soon?

Tim Ball: An arctic tale

Posted: October 17, 2014 by tchannon in History, Incompetence, sea ice

Dr Tim Ball has written a wonderful piece using his knowledge of Arctic history, what really went on with the Franklin expedition. There are echos today.

Weather, Climate, Arctic Ice And The Franklin Expedition

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper proudly announced discovery of one of Captain John Franklin’s ships, either the Erebus or Terror. Identification, of which ship will be relatively easy, based on the known dimensions of the vessels

The article concludes with

The fiasco was summarized when John Rae wrote his final report to the British Admiralty. He recommended that in future any Admiralty expedition should study the survival techniques of the native people. The Admiralty response said, the Royal Navy would never resort to the subterfuge of going native. No wonder the Erebus and Terror sank, with only one ship being discovered 170 years later, and everybody perishing. Government, using incompetent people to advance political agendas at the expense of ordinary people, many of them with remarkable skills and talents, is nothing new in the Arctic.

http://drtimball.com/2014/weather-climate-arctic-ice-and-the-franklin-expedition/

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Emperor penguins, Antarctica [image credit: USAF / Wikipedia]

Emperor penguins, Antarctica [image credit: USAF / Wikipedia]

We’ll highlight some points from the official reaction later but first the opening details from a press report. Note the eagerness to talk down the relevance of Antarctic sea ice.

‘Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.’

‘The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice coverage as a microcosm of global climate change.’

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The UK Met Office forecast for things they choose, such as Arctic sea ice extent but seem completely silent on Antarctica or even handedly dealing with both of pairs of extremes.

Ah well, wait a month or two… forecasting is better after the event IYSWIM

Image

Annotated extract from Met Office Arctic sea ice forecast page
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/arctic-sea-ice

It is possible the file dates do not reflect change in the documents.

NSIDC announcement for 2014 page here (where NSIDC also acknowledge the Antarctica extreme)

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oldbrew:

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Deafening silence in most of the mass media about this. Why is that?

Originally posted on sunshine hours:

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Sep 25 2014 – 1,362,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 mean. Data for Day 267. Data here.

13th Day Above the 2013 Record. 184th Daily Record.


antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2014_Day_267_1981-2010


antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_2014_Day_267_1981-2010

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Spot the polar vortex [image credit: BBC]

Spot the polar vortex
[image credit: BBC]


Before the usual media suspects get too worked up at yet another ‘study’ proclaiming something or other about humans and climate effects, let’s note what this well-known IPCC author thinks of it:

‘Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, … said he doesn’t agree with Yoon’s study.’

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Myth Of Arctic meltdown exposed again

Posted: August 31, 2014 by oldbrew in propaganda, sea ice, Uncertainty

Arctic ice [image credit: NASA]

Arctic ice [image credit: NASA]


This one runs and runs, but as it’s featured in a story in the UK national press (Daily Mail Online) quoting leading climate science figures like professor Judith Curry, we’ll give it another airing.

There does seem to be a good deal of suspect logic being thrown at the inconvenient fact that Arctic sea ice is refusing to go away as predicted by the UN IPCC and assorted like-minded pundits peddling their biases. Claims that ‘natural variability’ is just a confounding factor interfering with the supposed real story – i.e. significant man-made effects – have the appearance of wishful thinking, as no actual data is offered in support.

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Has Joe done what Uncle Sam couldn’t?

Posted: August 25, 2014 by tchannon in climate, ENSO, sea ice, weather

Some say money can buy brains, brains are cheap. Duffers think that, make the mistake of confusing rote with The Spark. As a wit said ‘the most intelligent person in the room is the room’… to which I add, buying others to inside still leaves the room. Self selection is recursive.

There again for here, an oscillation does not explain itself. Small step first.

Joe Bastardi is writing sense, Gosselin runs with it.

Image

A Single Meteorologist Explains What $165 Billion In Government-Funded Climate Science Couldn’t

By P Gosselin on 24. August 2014

Large scale oceanic oscillations responsible for most of the post 1980 “warming”

By Joe Bastardi

I think global warming is a misnomer.

There is a distortion of the temperature pattern on the globe, brought about by the natural cyclical warming events of the warm PDO and warm AMO together. I spoke about this at Heartland a couple of years ago – how the sea ice increase in the south and the decrease in the north were the hidden message that here is no “warming” just a distortion.

http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/24/a-single-meteorologist-explains-what-165-billion-in-government-funded-climate-science-couldnt/

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Time for a forecast [credit: Wikipedia]

Time for a forecast
[credit: Wikipedia]

The Alaska Dispatch News reported:

Predictions of Arctic summer ice melt come with lots of uncertainty
http://www.adn.com/article/20140801/predictions-arctic-summer-ice-melt-come-lots-uncertainty
(H/T GWPF Reports)

A few highlights:

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I’m of the opinion that before getting into the complexity of numerical modelling, it’s wise to put considerable effort into trying to understand the physical processes at work in the climate system, and the origins of the energy flows that drive them. David Evans’ recent series of posts over at Jo Nova’s site have generated a lot of interesting discussion (despite being roundly ignored by Anthony Watts at WUWT), and I think we can shed some light on the ‘mysterious 11yr lag’ between solar input and climate response.

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There is a new cross party committee on the Arctic, to report in March 2015

Ron Oxburgh is a member of this new House of Lords committee in the Arctic.

Yes, that Ron Oxburgh.

 

His interests declaration makes interesting reading.

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thwaitesPhys.org finds a nice way of saying the doomsters have completely misunderstood the reason why the West Antarctic Ice Sheet outlet has been thinning. New research finds hotter than previously thought geothermal activity underneath the glacier. This means the animated model showing massive WAIS recession by 2350 Cabot Institute director Prof. Rich Pancost was scaring the punters with down at SPRI last week is junk science:

Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable.

The Thwaites Glacier has been the focus of considerable attention in recent weeks as other groups of researchers found the glacier is on the way to collapse, but more data and computer modeling are needed to determine when the collapse will begin in earnest and at what rate the sea level will increase as it proceeds. The new observations by UTIG will greatly inform these ice sheet modeling efforts.

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oldbrew:

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A very important topic indeed, thanks to Judith Curry for raising it.

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Judith Curry

 . . . suggesting that Dansgaard-Oeschger events resulted from a combination of the effects of sea ice and ice shelves—structures that help define the margins of ice sheets—to account for both the rapid and the slower parts of the cycle.

View original 1,221 more words

Arctic sea ice [image credit: BBC/Getty Images]

Arctic sea ice [image credit: BBC/Getty Images]

The dynamics of ocean waves in polar regions give us important clues about the behaviour of sea ice in those areas, according to researchers.

“The ice floes bend with the waves, and over time you can imagine that this creates fatigue and eventually the ice will fracture. Interestingly, the fractures tend to be perpendicular to the direction of the waves, and to be of even widths.”

Re the Arctic, a related BBC report notes ‘that wave heights are going to change with increasing distance from the ice edge to the land, and that could have more of an impact on ice break-up.’

Could that suggest a ‘feedback effect': greater distance to land = more ice break-up etc.?

BBC report: Ocean waves influence polar ice extent

Research letter:
Storm-induced sea-ice breakup and the implications for ice extent

On Saturday My lady and I travelled with friends Ian and Susan down the Scott Polar Research Institute to a talk given by Rich Pancost, the professor at the head of the Cabot Institute at the University of Bristol. This outfit is comprised of a small team which co-ordinates cross disciplinary effort from other faculties at the University to help address the university’s ‘two big themes’ of environment and health.

cabot

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