Prof. Harald Yndestad explains the research and calculations behind his ideas, and how he not only came to question IPCC-type predictions of large temperature rises in the next decades, but arrived at his own.
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Climate data series reveals we are moving into a new serious cold climate period.
1. Solar irradiation from the sun has a computed maximum in 2017 and deep minimum in 2050.
2. Solar forced climate variation has a computed 500-year maximum in 2025, and a 1000-year deep minimum in 2070AD.
Read more here.
This seems to fit…
I’m disinclined to believe there is a pattern in what is really just weather that in most geographical areas has a pretty large distribution. Calling it “climate” based on anything other than geography is, I suspect, a human invention, not an actual property of the Earth. There may be cycles in the oceans but they obviously interact with each other and with all the other weather phenomena and thus their effects are unpredictable on an annual basis and their magnitude unpredictable on a multi-year basis.
there have been a number of papers on the effects of the Jovian planets as they line up and then spread out, particularly on the sun. That in turn affects the sun’s magnetosphere which in turn affects the number of cosmic rays getting to the planet, including Earth. Here it affects the formation of clouds and thus our albedo.
This paper comes at it from a similar basis, Jovian influence, but looks at TSI only. I think both things are needed to really understand the temperature influence on Earth.
[…] stpaulchuck on Yndestad: A Cold Climate Perio… […]
David Dilley also thinks there will be cooling in the next 2-3 decades, based on cycles seen in plant stomata proxies for CO2.
“Let’s take the plant stomata readings of the atmospheric carbon dioxide and overlay it onto our global warming and cooling Cycles during the past 1200 years. We have had six global warming Cycles during the past 1200 years as noted here in the red. This is back around 850 A.D and then you can see it cools down then we warm up again, cool down warm up cool way down and so on for six global warming cycles. People don’t talk about that but we have had six of them.
“When we overlay the plant stomata atmospheric carbon dioxide, guess what: We see a perfect fit. The high values in carbon dioxide peak on global warming cycles, so that brings a lot more credibility into the plants stomata cells for recording carbon dioxide.”
See also …
https://www.climateclock.no/2022/04/jsun/
Oh dear! Greenland was definitely warmer 1370-1200 BC, because the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) was warmer, and so was the Mediterranean. Every other warm AMO phase is during a centennial solar minimum, which is why its very long term average frequency is 55 years. The colder AMO anomalies are exactly when the solar wind is generally stronger, the mid 1970’s. mid 1980’s, and early 1990’s:
There were a pair of super or grand centennial solar minima from 1365 BC and 1250 BC, which just happen to be very good analogues for the next two centennial solar minima from 2095 and from 2200.
Centennial solar variability cannot be ‘computed’ without including Earth and Venus relative to the appropriate Jovian planets.
Arctic Ice Alarmists Display Either Ignorance or Their Deceptive Tendencies
Posted on Thu 09/07/2023 by PA Pundits – International
By Dr. John Happs ~
We may be near the top of the long-term climate rollercoaster ride.
HY: a deep minimum in 2050
The same time as climate worriers say is the most likely time for the AMOC to reach a ‘tipping point’…
Published: 25 July 2023
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w
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But the climate can’t go in both directions at once.
oldbrew says “We may be near the top of the long-term climate rollercoaster ride.”
Probably. The turning points -major – have always been at the peak (or root) of the Eddy cycle. It is what we are nearing; a peak.
The video (and others) seem to concentrate on the distant planets; U and N. However, according to science, the influence, whether gravitational, insolation, magnetic etc all are proportional the mass divided by distance squared (M/d^2). That makes the moon the major player, followed by Jupiter and then Venus. From historical data these were always the three aces, in a relationship with the sun.
Yndestad does look at lunar factors, here…
Jovian Planets and Lunar Nodal Cycles in the Earth’s Climate Variability (2022)
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2022.839794/full
Here’s where we are IMO:
Interesting links. Yet all are smooth mathematical cycles. On the contrary, historical evidence combined with the geological, indicate that the change at ‘trip points’ is abrupt, as in ‘step change’, and the conditions beyond that are changed permanently.
Obliquity is a major one and combined with it follow precession jumps. While orbital parameters remain unchanged, climatic conditions for the affected planet change dramatically. Dodwell’s perceived event I think I have now unraveled. What the ancient calendar tells is fact.
The sun also has cycles, not just the 11~ year one. Yndestad distinguishes between TSI and solar forcing, see items 1 and 2 in the post.
Ron C has posted just before me. I tend to agree with the minority, but with changes. Expect the change from warmer to colder to be abrupt and to a small or large extent dire. The sun has likely nothing to do with it. The third step needs careful thinking. Not just infrastructure but also prepared for possible abrupt major disturbances. The present energy dependence in every sphere of life is now a very high risk factor.
Looks like a chaotic system reaching a point where it can shift to a different attractor.
No One Talks About It: Solar System “Climate Change”… Happening Beyond Planet Earth
By P Gosselin on 12. September 2023
Mysteriously, warming is happening across the solar system. The one common factor is at the center of it all: the sun.
. . .
Today German prof. Stefan Homburg tweeted a summary of warming that’s happening at other places within our solar system, suggesting the sun is behind it.
“Global warming isn’t only happening on earth,” he tweets.
https://notrickszone.com/2023/09/12/no-one-talks-about-it-solar-system-climate-change-happening-beyond-planet-earth/
This agrees with Yndestad’s 2025 prediction.
See — https://rclutz.com/2023/09/18/zharkova-on-solar-forcing-and-global-cooling/