A Little Useful Basic Information from Real Scientists

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The world should have had enough of tin-pot self-important climate botherers by now. Let’s move on!

American Elephants

This is an older video, but a very good one. Dr. Richard Lindzen is one of our most respected scientists, and this simple video does a good job of clarifying the situation.

Here’s another (also older) from”Conversations that Matter” with Dr. William Happer, from Princeton University.

Most of the warming, rise of the oceans, all the stuff you hear so much panic about is measured in millimeters. If you don’t have a ruler that includes millimeters look it up. And as to warming:

The world’s 76 best Tide gauges show a mean 0.34 mm per year rise. “negligible acceleration”. There is no sign of climate models predicting sharply warming acceleration or sea level rise.

There are now around 31 different climate computer programs (the serious ones). They put in what we know, and what we think maybe we know, and a bunch of intelligent guesses. And they especially don’t know…

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Transition to electric vehicles puts heavy pressure on production of critical metals

Typical electric car set-up

Critics of fuel power speak of the finite nature of oil and natural gas discoveries. A reminder here that resources are far from unlimited for EVs, in the short term at least. No sign of much appetite for switching to smaller cars either, with SUV demand rising fast.

The current production of a number of critical metals is insufficient for the large-scale transition to electric vehicles.

This is the conclusion of a report by environmental scientists Benjamin Sprecher and organisations Copper8 and Metabolic, reports TechXplore.

As a solution, they advocate more electric car-sharing, cars with a smaller battery and improved recycling.

Small country, big impact

The Dutch Climate Policy aims for 1.9 million electric cars in the Netherlands by 2030, compared to 171,000 at this moment—a growth of more than 1000 percent in less than 11 years.

But according to the report “Critical Metals Demand for Electric Vehicles’ – which looks at critical metals needed for this growth—it would be better to limit this growth, so that there will be a maximum of 1 million electric cars in 2030.

The authors assume a fair distribution: each country is entitled to a certain share of the global production of important critical metals, such as lithium and cobalt, in proportion to its population.

With the current plans for electric cars, the Netherlands would need up to 4 percent of the global annual production, while the Netherlands only has 0.2 percent of the world’s population—an ‘unfair distribution,” according to the report.

Less is more

“Let me start by saying that we are definitely not against the introduction of electric cars,” says Benjamin Sprecher, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Sciences Leiden.

The transition to electric transport is important,” says Benjamin Sprecher, a researcher at the Institute of Environmental Sciences. “However, we must be aware that this policy is not without consequences.”

He explains, for example, that a greater demand for critical metals—which are also needed for solar panels and wind turbines—can be disastrous to nature. “Increased demand inevitably leads to the construction of new mines. In order to prevent inconvenience to humans, these will be located in remote areas, at the expense of already scarce nature reserves. We must be aware of this and ensure more sustainable mining.”

But that’s not enough, says Sprecher. “We consume an awful lot, so much so that it is no longer enough for us to have just one Earth. In the case of electric cars too, it is important that we look at ways to reduce the number of cars. For example, shared cars and improved public transport.”

Other solutions, such as new technologies that are less dependent on critical metals or the use of smaller batteries, are less effective (see figure 2) but also easier to implement.

Finally, the report recommends the development of a stronger European critical metals recycling industry.

Full article here.

Chris Martz: No, global warming is not causing more frequent Arctic outbreaks

Credit: weather.com

By what known physics could a few molecules of carbon dioxide upset the jet stream? A meteorologist is not impressed by such claims.

By Chris Martz | November 9, 2019
INTRODUCTION Just when wildfires weren’t enough, we now have people blaming cold weather on a warming climate, which seems quite contradictory.

In light of the Arctic outbreak in forecast this coming week, people like Phil Plait (who has since blocked me) took to Twitter (Figure 1) to claim that man-made climate change is causing frigid, Arctic air to be displaced south into the United States, Europe, and Asia.

His argument, which is supported by some climate scientists, suggests that man-made global warming causes the polar jet stream to destabilize causing it to become wavy rather than zonal, sending Arctic air southward into the mid-latitude regions.

He also stated that without global warming, the polar air would stay near the north pole.

Both of these claims are exactly backwards from reality and are not supported by weather dynamics, the global warming theory, or statistical observations in long-term temperature data.

First light: The Riding Sunbeams trial of solar-powered electric traction

Credit: Railfuture

Well, 10% solar-powered – that’s the target. Of course solar has its variables, mainly weather conditions and hours of daylight. So is this ‘solution’ worth the bother and cost, or not? The era of batteries on train locomotives has also arrived – see ‘Adding a third dimension – battery power’ here.

How many times have we looked at clever innovation and wondered why on earth no one thought of doing it before?

Often the simplest of ideas seem to lead to the most elegant of engineering solutions, says RailEngineer.

The truth is, of course, that invention is only half of the story. Sometimes the right meeting of minds must happen before a bright idea can become a reality.

To the best of our knowledge, the direct supply of solar power to rail traction systems has never been done, anywhere in the world.

Fading History: Britain’s Renewables Obsession Renders Reliable & Affordable Power Distant Memory

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Taking the expensive and unreliable route to power generation regardless of economics is not likely to end well.

STOP THESE THINGS

Back in August, Brits had their first taste of the kind of grid chaos inevitably delivered when you pin your hopes on the weather. Mass blackouts are the inevitable consequence of the notion that a modern economy can power itself on sunshine and breezes.

As Brits are learning to their cost and consternation, electricity generation and distribution is a finely balanced proposition. The product of considered engineering and careful design, the electricity grid was never designed for the massive surges and collapses in wind and solar output, delivered on a daily basis.

As Dr John Constable outlines below, thanks to chaotically intermittent wind and solar, the expectation Brits once held of having reliable and/or affordable power has gone the way of the dodo.

The fading dream of reliable power
The Global Warming Policy Forum
John Constable
21 October 2019

Back in August, a major power cut blacked out something like…

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Yes, it IS hard to believe there’s no evidence — so ask the IPCC yourself

All you’re likely to hear from promoters of climate alarm are ‘balance of probability’ arguments.
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“The influence of mankind on climate is trivially true and numerically insignificant.” – Dr Richard Lindzen

So you say the science is settled, you trust 97% of climate scientists and you call me a denier, writes Richard Treadgold @ Climate Conversation.

It’s hardly surprising and I sympathise with that view—we’ve been badgered over it for years.

But all we sceptics do is ask you, “What’s the evidence?” There’s no denial in that, so what’s your answer? If the science really is settled, what evidence is it based on?

COLD WATER? The Oceans and Climate Change – Dr David Whitehouse

The full GWPF paper is here. Needless to say, it offers little comfort to ‘man-made warming’ climate dogmatists. The author concludes that what is happening to the oceans today is not unusual, in historical terms.

Executive summary

• The study of ocean heat content (OHC) is a subject struggling with inadequate data, but exposed in a public forum.

• Only since the introduction of data from the Argo array have there been convincing estimates of errors. The inhomogeneity of different data sets is a major problem.

• There is no real understanding of the difference between random and systematic errors in OHC data.

• Changes in OHC are at the limits of our ability to measure, and made with much uncertainty and many unknowns.

Sale Of Indulgences Dominates Madrid Climate Summit

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The vast climate money market is gearing up for the Madrid doom-fest, with more than a hint of smoke-and-mirrors chicanery included.

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

In Madrid the negotiators will be trying hard to finalize the Paris Accord emission trading scheme. The non-binding Paris Accord targets may have big bucks value for some developing countries and this has led to a paralyzing controversy.

Emission trading means any country that does better than their target can sell the difference as indulgences, called carbon credits.

This is potentially a huge market. The airlines are already promising to offset their enormous, jet propelled emissions, and most developed countries are not on track to hit their targets, so there are a lot of potential buyers.

Countries like China and India have a lot to sell, despite their coal mania, because their targets are based on emissions per GDP, not emissions per se. Industrialization increases emissions but it increases productivity even more, a lot more. Booming Brazil also has a pot full of indulgences to…

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Bristol Council votes to ban diesel cars from 2021

Bristol’s urban area population of 724,000 is the 8th-largest in the UK, says Wikipedia. Diesel owners don’t have long to get rid of their cars, convert them to another fuel or find another method of transport if they need to get into town to work, shop or anything else during the day, after March 2021 – unless the next government decides to step in and save them.

Under the plan, all privately-owned diesel vehicles will be banned from entering it every day between 7am and 3pm by March 2021
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Bristol is set to become the first city in the UK to ban diesel cars as part of its efforts to improve air quality, reports Energy Live News.

Voyager 2’s trip to interstellar space deepens some mysteries beyond our solar system

The two Voyager space probes, launched in 1977, are still delivering tales of the unexpected.

The boundary region between the sun’s sphere of influence and the broader Milky Way galaxy is complicated indeed.

Humanity’s second taste of interstellar space may have raised more questions than it answered, writes Mike Wall @ Space.com.

NASA’s Voyager 2 spacecraft popped free of the heliosphere — the huge bubble of charged particles that the sun blows around itself — on Nov. 5, 2018, more than six years after the probe’s pioneering twin, Voyager 1, did the same.

The mission team has now had some time to take stock of Voyager 2’s exit, which occurred in the heliosphere’s southern hemisphere (as opposed to Voyager 1, which departed in the northern hemisphere).

In a series of five papers published online today (Nov. 4) in the journal Nature Astronomy, the researchers reported the measurements made by the probe as it entered interstellar space.

Changes in high-altitude winds over the South Pacific produce long-term effects

‘Long-term’ here means really long-term. The 21k year precession period quoted looks like that of the perihelion.

In the past million years, the high-altitude winds of the southern westerly wind belt, which spans nearly half the globe, didn’t behave as uniformly over the Southern Pacific as previously assumed.

Instead, they varied cyclically over periods of ca. 21,000 years, reports ScienceDaily.

A new study has now confirmed close ties between the climate of the mid and high latitudes and that of the tropics in the South Pacific, which has consequences for the carbon budget of the Pacific Southern Ocean and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

‘Regret’ as US begins exit from UN climate accord

The pretence that humans have some kind of power over the global climate is put in the spotlight once again.

The US has begun the process of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, notifying the UN of its intention to leave, as other countries expressed regret and disappointment at the move, reports BBC News.

The notification begins a one-year process of exiting the global climate change accord, culminating the day after the 2020 US election.

The US government says the deal puts an “unfair economic burden” on Americans.

The agreement brought together 188 nations to combat climate change.

Is Global Warming All Due To Super El Niño’s?

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Interesting question, but we’re still left with another one: what causes the super El Niños?

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

In a recent CFACT article, climate expert Joe Bastardi says super El Niños have caused all the atmospheric warming since satellite measurements began in 1978. I suggested this two years ago in a CFACT article titled “No CO2 warming for the last 40 years?” Now Joe has confirmed it.

The focus of Joe’s long article is that these super El Niños are natural.

Most importantly, here is Joe’s picture of the 1998-2000 super El Niño step up in global temperatures, with nothing but 15 to 20 year pauses on either side:

My description of this big step up, posted two years ago, is here.

There is little to no CO2 warming in the entire satellite record! Just a step up warming due to the super El Niño 20 years ago. I told you so. We may now have…

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Ancient air challenges carbon dioxide explanation for a shift in glacial cycles

A reconstruction of the Anglian ice sheet in Precambrian North London (credit: BBC / The Natural History Museum, London)

This might rattle a few cages in climate-land.

An analysis of air up to 2 million years old, trapped in Antarctic ice, shows that a major shift in the periodicity of glacial cycles was probably not caused by a long-term decline in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, writes Eric W. Wolff in Nature.
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During the past 2.6 million years, Earth’s climate has alternated between warm periods known as interglacials, when conditions were similar to those of today, and cold glacials, when ice sheets spread across North America and northern Europe.

Before about 1 million years ago, the warm periods recurred every 40,000 years, but after that, the return period lengthened to an average of about 100,000 years.

It has often been suggested that a decline in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide was responsible for this fundamental change.

Climate change: Thousands invited to join citizens’ assembly

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This looks like an attempt to give a facade of democratic respectability to yet more madcap anti-CO2 nonsense from the UK government. How much can the country take before economic rot sets in?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Letters are being sent to 30,000 households across the UK inviting people to join a citizens’ assembly on climate change.

Once participants are selected, the assembly will meet next year, with the outcome of their discussions reported back to Parliament.

The initiative, set up by cross party MPs, will look at what members of the public can do to reduce CO2.

The UK government has committed to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.

Rachel Reeves, chair of the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Committee, one of six select committees who commissioned the climate assembly, said a clear roadmap was needed to achieve this goal.

“Finding solutions which are equitable and have public support will be crucial,” she said.

“Parliament needs to work with the people and with government to address the challenge of climate change.”

Random selection

The invitees to Climate Assembly UK have…

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One of the closest exoplanet pairs to the 3:2 mean motion resonance: K2-19b and c

Artist’s impression of the Kepler telescope [credit: Wikipedia]

So said researchers in their 2015 study which had that title. Then a third planet was seen.

In the abstract they say:

Methods. Our search through two separate pipelines led to the independent discovery of K2-19b and c, a two-planet system of Neptune-sized objects (4.2 and 7.2 R⊕), orbiting a K dwarf extremely close to the 3:2 mean motion resonance. The two planets each show transits, sometimes simultaneously owing to their proximity to resonance and the alignment of conjunctions.

Solar Cycle 25 is slowly coming to life

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The question then is: how much life will it come to, compared to recent cycles?
Cycle 25 observations in SDO HMI imagery (to October 31st, 2019)

Spaceweather.com

Nov. 1, 2019: Breaking a string of 28 spotless days, a new sunspot (AR2750) is emerging in the sun’s southern hemisphere–and it’s a member of the next solar cycle. A picture of the sunspot is inset in this magnetic map of the sun’s surface from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:

How do we know AR2750 belongs to the next solar cycle? Its magnetic polarity tells us so. Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale’s Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. AR2750 is therefore a member of Solar Cycle 25.

Shortlived sunspots belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reported on Dec. 20, 2016; April 8, 2018; Nov. 17, 2018; May 28, 2019; July 1, 2019; and July 8, 2019. The one on July 8, 2019, was significant because it lasted long…

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Chile climate pullout prompts tears from young activists sailing Atlantic

At least they won’t need to make the bus trip from Rio to Santiago – if Spain is confirmed as the new venue. The best laid schemes of mice and men…and all that.

News of Santiago summit’s cancellation reportedly came as heavy blow but youngsters decide to push ahead with boat trip, reports Jonathan Watts for The Guardian.

Chile’s decision to withdraw as host of the Cop 25 UN climate conference has prompted tears and frustration from a group of school-strike activists sailing across the Atlantic to attend the talks.

Global EV sales in September 2019 drop down 8%

Chinese electric car [image credit: scmp.com]

Sales of expensive electric vehicles predictably misfire as short-term subsidies inevitably slip. No signs of mass take-up despite endless climate hype.

Global sales are lower than a year ago because China lost incentives, while the U.S. is trying to overcome high Model 3 sales in 2018, reports Inside EVs.

The global plug-in passenger car sales were affected in September by a decrease in sales in China and in the U.S. Only the European market brings significant growth among the three biggest markets.

System provides cooling with no electricity

Credit: scienceblog.com

It’s claimed this invention could be used to improve any type of cooling system.

Imagine a device that can sit outside under blazing sunlight on a clear day, and without using any power cool things down by more than 23 degrees Fahrenheit (13 degrees Celsius).

It almost sounds like magic, but a new system designed by researchers at MIT and in Chile can do exactly that says TechXplore.

The device, which has no moving parts, works by a process called radiative cooling.

It blocks incoming sunlight to keep from heating it up, and at the same time efficiently radiates infrared light—which is essentially heat—that passes straight out into the sky and into space, cooling the device significantly below the ambient air temperature.