Nikolov and Zeller: Analysis showing Earth’s climate is driven by Sun and cloud albedo now published

Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller have just had a huge, paradigm shifting paper published by peer reviewed journal MDPI Geomatics. This was an invited paper, so Ned and Karl didn’t have to pay fees for it to be open access. You can freely download and share it (local copy here). The peer review process took 45 days, with only minor revisions to the manuscript required. MDPI operate an open review process and you can see the questions asked by the reviewers and clarifications provided by the authors at the relevant links on their website.

In many regards, this paper represents the culmination and summation of the scientific work that Ned and Karl have been publishing over the last 15 years. Here, at the Talkshop, we’ve been following and discussing the development of their empirical and theoretical work. We picked up on their first publicly available work, an extended poster on their Unified Theory of Climate written following a WCRP Conference presentation in 2011. In May 2022, we published their paper analyzing the CERES data and deriving climate sensitivities to various forcings for open peer review. The present paper draws it all together and fills the gap left by the IPCC in the 2021 6th Assessment Report by their misrepresentation of and failure to discuss the decrease in reflected solar radiation and its effect on increases in Earth’s surface temperature. As Ned and Karl’s new paper shows, the increased sunlight absorption by the Planet is the primary cause of the observed global warming since 2000.

The new paper also discusses, how the IPCC’s central concept about “heat trapping” by the so-called “greenhouse gases” arises from a misunderstanding of the reason the outgoing energy flux attenuates with altitude. The dissipation of thermal energy with height is actually due to a quasi-adiabatic process, which reduces the per-unit-volume energy of rising air parcels as they expand into lower pressure levels aloft. In this regard, the paper provides a new explanation of the Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) showing that it does not represent “heat gain” by the Earth system as presently assumed. The mainstream climate scientists and IPCC currently misinterpret EEI as “the most fundamental indicator for climate change” (e.g. von Schuckmann et al. 2023).

Ned’s announcement of the new paper on X has caused a stir. Since 5pm BST yesterday, it’s been liked 4.3k times and reposted 2.4k times, with over 180 followup comments.

🚨BREAKING: Our long-awaited 30-page climate paper was published today:

-MDPI Geomatics website: https://t.co/47pCVPyk6c
-PDF: https://t.co/dfvOFn0EEx

This is a seminal study, which demonstrates through observations and math that the Sun (not CO2) drives Earth's climate! pic.twitter.com/KwtimzLsbs

— Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. (@NikolovScience) August 20, 2024

Here’s fig. 7 as a taster/teaser. See the abstract below the break.

Harvests, wildfires, epidemics: How the jet stream has shaped extreme weather in Europe for centuries

Modern jet stream patterns in Europe can be described as natural variation, based on this research. A new study says ‘Northern and southern summer EU JSL [Jet Stream Latitude] excursions thus induce a dipole between BRIT [British Isles] and NEMED [N. East Mediterranean] summer weather that is reflected not only in a variety of climate variables (Fig. 1) but also in vegetation productivity’. The article calls it a seesaw pattern.
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ScienceDaily Summary: Tree-ring data reveal that periodic shifts in strong winds high above the Earth’s surface have driven opposite climates in different parts of Europe for the past 700 years and likely much longer, resulting in contrasting patterns in weather, agricultural and societal extremes.
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During her summer travels to her native Belgium, University of Arizona professor Valerie Trouet noticed something that turned casual curiosity into a major scientific discovery: When the sun hid behind an overcast sky and people around her put on sweaters instead of summer clothes, the weather tended to be warm and dry in Italy, Greece and the Balkans, popular summer escapes for tourists from the cooler climates of central and northern Europe.

At U of A’s Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Trouet studies tree-rings to gather clues about what past climates were like, reading wavy, wooden lines like a linguist might decipher an ancient text.

Llanwddyn:Cwm Cownwy DCNN 7949 – Quantity over quality.

52.74942 -3.46995 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 5 & UNSATISFACTORY Installed 1/1/1988

I have started with the above image that does NOT show the Stevenson Screen to put the nature of this site in context of its overall surroundings. Located at 235 metres AMSL, the valley sides reach steeply up to a marked spot height of 388 metres. This type of location is highly likely to suffer from “frost hollows” unusual wind effects, heavy shading and is certainly not representative of a large area. The weather experienced at this point of its small valley will be markedly different from areas just a few tens of metres away above the valley sides. This is what the Screen location actually looks like –

Ice core study evidence casts more doubt on chances of weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The study abstract opens by questioning a popular ocean alarm idea: ‘An industrial-era decline in Greenland ice-core methanesulfonic acid [MSA] is thought to herald a collapse in North Atlantic marine phytoplankton stocks related to a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation [AMOC]. By contrast, stable levels of total marine biogenic sulfur contradict this interpretation and point to changes in atmospheric oxidation as a potential cause of the methanesulfonic acid decline.’ So it turns out that distant industrial pollution was the prime reason for unexpected declines in a naturally-produced acid normally found in the Arctic atmosphere, rather than a problem with ocean dynamics leading to a decline in phytoplankton stocks. Another setback for climate alarmist theorisers, following the recent discovery by researchers of an AMOC-related 40% observation error (see Talkshop post here). Since 1990 tighter regulation has led to lower levels of Arctic pollution and an ongoing recovery of the MSA levels.
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A Dartmouth-led study on ice cores from Alaska and Greenland found that air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels reaches the remote Arctic in amounts large enough to alter its fundamental atmospheric chemistry, says Phys.org.

The findings illustrate the long reach of fossil fuel emissions and provide support for the importance of clean-air rules, which the team found can reverse the effect.

The impact of pollution on the Arctic began as soon as widespread fossil fuel usage took hold during the industrial era, according to a report in Nature Geoscience.

The researchers detected this footprint in an unexpected place—they measured declines in an airborne byproduct of marine phytoplankton activity known as methanesulfonic acid, or MSA, captured in the ice cores when air pollution began to rise.

Iver Water Works DCNN 4590 – An emerging pattern of selected and unsatisfactory locations.

51.51247 -0.496131 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 4(S) & UNSATISFACTORY Installed 28/6/2016

In researching this station I discovered a seriously concerning pattern of new Met Office sites – New Site locations are NOT conforming to an even geographic spread. They are clustering in specific areas likely to misrepresent area and national climate recording.

Battersea Heliport DCNN 5023 – A suitable climate measuring point?

51.46958 0.17941 Met Office assessed as CIMO Class 5 AND “UNSATISFACTORY” Installed 18/5/2018

Obviously the above image is not of a Met Office weather station whose data is used to compile the historic temperature record – that would be totally absurd. It is in fact an image taken from a Met Office Station whose data is used to compile the historic temperature record………and shows its surroundings.

This is the location of Battersea Heliport Weather Station that was fully assessed for climate reporting purposes – it did not have to be assessed.

Nuclear power: South Yorkshire chosen for proposed UK SMR factory

Everything nuclear is a slow process – more like decades than years. But something has to try to compensate for the intermittency of renewables, as fuel-burning power stations are pushed to the margins of the national grid system in pursuit of government net zero targets for electricity generation.
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USA-based Holtec International has selected South Yorkshire in England as the preferred site for its proposed UK small modular reactor factory, says World Nuclear News.

It has also signed memorandums of understanding with two British research centres to support SMR manufacturing and testing.

Holtec’s selection process involved evaluation of 13 locations that responded to a call for interest released by Holtec earlier this year, after which four locations – West Midlands, South Yorkshire, Cumbria and Tees Valley – were shortlisted.

Holtec’s UK subsidiary, Holtec Britain, has now selected South Yorkshire as the location for its new SMR factory to serve the UK, Europe and the Middle East.

St. James’s Park London WMO 03770 – Officially Unsatisfactory and Unrealistic conclusions.

51.50494 -0.13096 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 5 and UNSATISFACTORY Installed 1/1/1903

London ranks as one of the world’s largest and most intense Urban Heat Islands (UHI).

“London’s urban centre has the joint-fourth most extreme urban heat island (UHI) “hot spot” of six major cities around the world, with temperatures 4.5°C hotter than rural surroundings, according to new research by global sustainable development consultancy, Arup.”

“https://www.arup.com/news/londons-most-extreme-urban-heat-island-hot-spot-compared-to-five-other-global-cities-in-new-survey/

Urban heat is not some rarely understood scientific principle, it is common knowledge – a phenomenon that is experienced by almost everyone at some time. This additional urban heat is even a regular feature of popular music lyrics such as “hot now, summer in the city….” by the “Lovin’ Spoonful” .

500 years ago the population of the Greater London metropolitan area was estimated to be under 50,000 whilst now it stands at almost 15 million – a growth worth noting for later context.

The “centre” of London from where distances to/from London are calculated is generally regarded as the King Charles 1 statue at the head of The Mall just a short walk from Charing Cross Station. The St James’s Park weather station is an even shorter walk away from this “centre” of London

Critique of Time mag’s suggested link of ‘climate change’ to recent flooding in Europe

The hunt is on for weather trends supposedly pointing to human causes. But the most obvious trend is the one towards dashing off a quick ‘study’, via a modelling exercise, claiming that a very recent bad weather event somewhere was made worse by ‘climate change’. By definition a single event can’t be a trend, as a professor quoted here acknowledges. Flooding in parts of central Europe is known to have been going on for centuries at least, while occupation or use of land close to flood-prone areas has often increased.
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Time magazine recently posted an article, titled “Is Climate Change Causing the Deadly Floods in Europe?” that, while providing some balance, still asserts that the recent flooding in Poland and other parts of Europe reflects a broader worsening pattern caused by climate change.

This is false, says Climate Realism.

There is no indication in the data showing a ‘pattern’ of increasing flood severity or incidence.

Major global banks and financial institutions back effort to triple nuclear energy by 2050

Their hand has probably been forced by the emergence of electricity-hungry Artificial Intelligence, which will be way too much for intermittent renewables, promoted by the net zero crowd, to cater for. If these major players can’t process their vast amounts of data efficiently enough, or at all, due to power problems they can see where that goes for them, as the option of fuel-burning power stations is being choked off by many governments around the world under the sway of UN climate theories.
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NEW YORK, Sept. 23, 2024 /PR Newswire./ — Today, nations endorsing the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy launched at COP28 in 2023 were joined by 14 financial institutions who expressed support for the call to action to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

The group of financial institutions in the convening include: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Ares Management, Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Brookfield, Citi, Credit Agricole CIB, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim Securities LLC, Morgan Stanley, Rothschild & Co., Segra Capital Management, and Societe Generale.

The financial institutions recognized that global civil nuclear energy projects have an important role to play in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Achfary DCNN0337 – More Foehn Effects

58.31084 -4.91636 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 5 & “Satisfactory” Installed (elsewhere) 1/1/1914 Originally a rain gauge site, archived temperature records only date from 1/10/2006 hence probable Screen installation date.

A station in a remote Sutherland village showing a long term history but only as a rain gauge site and one that has had several relocations and numbering changes. What appears to be a front garden site it records data manually and is a lowly rated CIMO Class 5 with inaccuracy due to siting recognised as up to 5 °C. Despite the relatively unassuming nature of the site it is a double UK all time record holder.

A Bright Comet is Approaching Earth

A Bright Comet is Approaching Earth

Closest approach to Earth will be on October 12th. But don’t ask when it will be back again – not just yet, anyway.

Ocean robots detect minor deep ocean warming in some parts of the world

A minor rate of ocean warming as reported here could easily be normal natural variation. The use of ‘historic data from research vessels’ in addition to more recently collected data conflicts starkly with the estimated range of warming for ‘parts of the deep ocean’ given to four decimal places. Other parts – maybe not so much, or even strong cooling (in much of the western North Atlantic), but the study says ‘the warming trend dominates the global integral for the deep layer’. Any tiny increase in temperature somewhere gets tagged as a ‘hot spot’.
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New research published today shows that using data collected by deep ocean robots, called Deep Argo floats, combined with historic data from research vessels has increased confidence that parts of the global deep ocean are warming at a rate of 0.0036 to 0.0072 degrees Fahrenheit (0.002 to 0.004 degrees Celsius) each year, says NOAA.

“Ocean warming is the dominant element of global warming and a major driver of climate change,” said Greg Johnson, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Lab and lead author of the study, which was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“This study confirms the previously reported deep ocean warming, and reduces the uncertainties about the global ocean heat uptake in waters below 1.2 miles (2000 meters), a key area of the ocean for predicting sea level rise and extreme weather.”

Grangemouth Refinery DCNN 5237 – A Natural Location?

56.00932 -3.68654 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 4 Installed 1/1/1969

There are probably numerous reasons for installing a weather station in the centre of a major oil refinery. However, historically recording temperature of the natural environment is most certainly not one that immediately springs to mind. Google street view indicates numerous cooling towers, chimneys, fractionating columns and everything associated with a major industrial site. Natural vegetation is in remarkably short supply with the sole exception being the verge to the very busy A.904 on which this weather station is located.

The above image is flattering………

Nettlecombe DCNN 8632 & DCNN 8633 – A tale of two stations.

Nettlecombe Field Studies Council (above) 51.13076 -3.35005 Met Office assessed CIMO Class 5 & Satisfactory Installed 1/1/1968 {Image courtesy Peter Stevens from Google Street view.}

Nettlecombe Birds Hill 51.11779 -3.34946 Met Office assessments not known. Installed 1/1/1968 closed 10/7/2012 but still apparently in situ.

There are multiple issues with the current “Nettlecombe Field Studies Council” site which become further confused by the Met Office simultaneously opening a second weather station known as “Netllecombe Birds Hill” approximately 1,400 metres away and their dual operation for 44 years.

Analysis of the current Field Studies Council (FSC) site is an object lesson in how not to run a reliable recording station.

Hundreds evacuated from northern Italy as extreme weather continues to impact Europe – as EU opts to blame humans

As the BBC weather report screenshot shows, a meandering jet stream has created a large area of low pressure in parts of Europe, leading to heavy rain from Storm Boris in the regions covered by it. Inevitably catch-all slogans like ‘climate breakdown’ get bandied about by alarmist sources – the EU in this case – but even the possibility of natural weather variation is as ever ignored.
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Flooding continues to ravage parts of Europe as Storm Boris presses on with its path of destruction, reports Euronews.

Around a thousand people were evacuated in northern Italy on Thursday after torrential rains and severe flooding hit the region of Emilia-Romagna.

Rivers flooded in the provinces of Ravenna, Bologna and Faenza – with local officials urging people to stay on the upper storeys of their homes or leave them outright.

Motherwell Strathclyde Park DCNN 6435 – Unsatisfactory Piles of Rubbish

55.78602 -4.02304 Met Office Assessed CIMO CLASS 5 & UNSATISFACTORY Installed 1/1/1979

There really should not be much to say about this station other than it is a complete disgrace to meteorology. The back story here demonstrates the worst of the Met Office’s ongoing practice. Paul Homewood’s excellent “Not a Lot of People Know That” blog exposed the shortcomings of this site as far back as 2018 prompting Paul to conclude “The thermometer at Strathclyde Park breaks all of the rules for proper siting and should be immediately withdrawn from the Met Office list.”

The site was demonstrated to be unsatisfactory back then, nothing appears to have been improved in the interim and the latest Met Office rating is still “Unsatisfactory”. And yet it is still there functioning and contributing readings to the historic temperature record. So what is the full story?

Cambridge University Botanic Gardens DCNN 3253 – Double Standards?

52.19398 0.12944 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 5 Installed 1/1/1891

Another of the many Botanic Garden sites the Met Office has. By definition these sites are deliberately modified micro-climates designed to artificially elevate temperatures. Cambridge University Botanic Gardens (CUBG) are a record breaking site (2019 record high) with a highly dubious history, one which I feel, clearly demonstrates Met Office standards significantly changing over time and distorting the long term temperature record. A tale of two records……

Earth may have had a ring system 466 million years ago, study finds

The Earth’s polar regions are associated with geomagnetic forces i.e. magnetic north and south, but are there any equator-related (west-east) forces? One at least, as Wikipedia says : ‘The ring current system consists of a band, at a distance of 3 to 8 Earth radii, which lies in the equatorial plane and circulates clockwise around the Earth (when viewed from the north). The particles of this region produce a magnetic field in opposition to the Earth’s magnetic field and so an Earthly observer would observe a decrease in the magnetic field in this area.’ The article mentions Saturn’s rings, which clearly align with that planet’s equator, and looks at ‘potential climate implications’ of Earth having had something similar. The research determined that of all the places on Earth where craters should have been preserved ‘only 30% of the suitable land area was determined to have been close to the equator, yet all the impact craters from this period were found in this region.’ (NB the Van Allen radiation belts also have some affinity with the equator.)
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In a discovery that challenges our understanding of Earth’s ancient history, researchers have found evidence suggesting that Earth may have had a ring system that formed around 466 million years ago, at the beginning of a period of unusually intense meteorite bombardment known as the Ordovician impact spike, says Phys.org.

This surprising hypothesis, published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, stems from plate tectonic reconstructions for the Ordovician period noting the positions of 21 asteroid impact craters.

All these craters are located within 30 degrees of the equator, despite more than 70% of Earth’s continental crust being outside this region, an anomaly that conventional theories cannot explain.

Copley DCNN 2122 – Snow Business

54.62360 -1.86919 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 4 installed 1/12/1995

I feel it is important to see the above local image prior to the Google aerial image below to put this site into context.

Firstly I must clarify I have no intention to disparage the obviously diligent amateur meteorologist who originally installed this manual reporting site and maintains its recording. However, the responsible authority is the Met Office who chose to adopt this site’s data back in 1995 and continue to use it.

There are some rather obvious questions to ask and observations to make but firstly this site has regular “celebrity” status – Copley is billed as the snowiest place in England and that record has more “Implications“.

Antarctic krill ‘valuable’ in the oceanic carbon cycle, say researchers

Regardless of doubts over the climate fixation with trace gases in the atmosphere, the workings of nature’s oceanic carbon cycle are worth investigating. The study says ‘The carbon sequestration potential of open-ocean pelagic ecosystems is vastly under-reported compared to coastal vegetation ‘blue carbon’ systems’, and ‘it is likely that Antarctic krill is amongst the world’s most important carbon-storing organisms.’
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Small marine crustaceans are as valuable as key coastal habitats for storing carbon and should be similarly protected, according to new research.

The study shows that a single species, Antarctic krill, store similar amounts of carbon to key ‘blue carbon’ habitats such as mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrasses, says Eurekalert.

However, krill are also impacted by global heating and potential overfishing, so should be considered for similar protections as other important habitats, say the researchers.

Krill are eaten by larger animals in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica such as whales, seals and penguins, but are also fished for food and fishing bait, and for use in aquaculture and dietary supplements.