Spring 2015

Posted: April 18, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A gentle chat about the ordinary.

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May blossom, 18th April 2015, hedgerow central southern England, abt 5x life size. Click for larger. Various common names.

My impression is of a late spring for trees, landscape is still bare some places, just the start of greening but normal of low growing plants. Cherry here has been in blossom for a week.

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Super-sized exoplanet rings [credit: Ron Miller / Astronomy Now]

Super-sized exoplanet rings [credit: Ron Miller / Astronomy Now]


They say ‘the diameter of the ring system is nearly 120 million kilometres’. Imagine the forces in play to keep all that in order. Astronomy Now reports:

Astronomers at the Leiden Observatory, The Netherlands, and the University of Rochester, USA, have discovered that the ring system that they see eclipse the very young Sun-like star J1407 is of enormous proportions, much larger and heavier than the ring system of Saturn. The ring system — the first of its kind to be found outside our Solar System — was discovered in 2012 by a team led by Rochester’s Eric Mamajek.

A new analysis of the data, led by Leiden’s Matthew Kenworthy, shows that the ring system consists of over 30 rings, each of them tens of millions of kilometres in diameter. Furthermore, they found gaps in the rings, which indicate that satellites (“exomoons”) may have formed. The result has been accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal.

Read the rest here.

oldbrew:

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By the time people realise the climate ‘experts’ got it all wrong – again – most of the culprits will have retired, most probably with nice pensions.

Originally posted on Real Science:

Scientists warn that we are about to pass a global warming tipping point.

ScreenHunter_8651 Apr. 17 05.58

While we may not yet have reached the “point of no return”—when no amount of cutbacks on greenhouse gas emissions will save us from potentially catastrophic global warming—climate scientists warn we may be getting awfully close.

Have We Passed the Point of No Return on Climate Change? – Scientific American

This sounds bad, but is actually excellent news. In 1989 they only gave us until the year 2000 to stop global warming, so this is actually quite a nice reprieve.

ScreenHunter_8659 Apr. 17 06.37

Mercury News: Search Results

But it is even better than it seems! Forty years ago this month climatologists told us that unless we let them melt the polar ice caps, global cooling would kill us all.

ScreenHunter_8656 Apr. 17 06.15

denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf

So far, we have a total of 40 years of passing the global cooling/warming tipping point. But the news gets even better. Seventy…

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Jupiter dominates the solar system

Jupiter dominates the solar system

By far the two largest bodies in our solar system are Jupiter and Saturn. In terms of angular momentum: ‘That of Jupiter contributes the bulk of the Solar System’s angular momentum, 60.3%. Then comes Saturn at 24.5%, Neptune at 7.9%, and Uranus at 5.3%’ (source), leaving only 2% for everything else. Jupiter and Saturn together account for nearly 85% of the total.

The data tell us that for every 21 Jupiter-Saturn (J-S) conjunctions there are 382 Jupiter-Earth (J-E) conjunctions and 403 Saturn-Earth (S-E) conjunctions (21 + 382 = 403).

Since one J-S conjunction moves 117.14703 degrees retrograde from the position of the previous one, the movement of 21 will be 21 x 117.14703 = 2460.0876, or 2460 degrees as a round number.

The nearest multiple of a full rotation of 360 degrees to 2460 is 2520 (= 7 x 360).
Therefore 21 J-S has a net movement of almost 60 degrees (2520 – 2460) from its start position.

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Dutch Parliament buildings [credit: Wikipedia]

Dutch Parliament buildings [credit: Wikipedia]


Any guesses how this one’s likely to go? The idea that humans can control temperature changes is about as absurd as the idea that they are the main cause of them, as large fluctuations in long-term climate records clearly show. The prospect of maximum temperatures being set by law is risible – but in theory it could happen.

Phys.org reports: Around 900 Dutch citizens on Tuesday took their government to court in a bid to force a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and take action against climate change.

“We want the Dutch government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels,” said Majan Missema, head of rights group Urgenda which is coordinating the legal action.

The group says the case is the first in Europe in which citizens attempt to hold a state responsible for its potentially devastating inaction and the first in the world in which human rights are used as a legal basis to protect citizens against climate change.

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Saudi Britannia?

Posted: April 15, 2015 by oldbrew in Energy, Politics
Tags: ,
Nodding donkey, or pump jack [credit: Wikipedia]

Nodding donkey, or pump jack [credit: Wikipedia]

Is this North Sea oil and gas – part 2, or will British politicians shy away from the wealth under our feet, citing nebulous climate theories that don’t work in the real world?

Huw Jenkins of Shale Energy Insider reports:
Following reports that the Jurassic Kimmeridge formation in England could contain more oil than Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar – the world’s largest oil reserve – the conversation about oil and gas drilling in England is heating up, once again.

Chris Faulkner, CEO of Breitling Energy Corporation based in Dallas, Texas, known by the media as the ‘Frack Master’, thinks that the reports are a “game changer” for England and that shale exploration will still be viable in the UK, despite oil and gas prices.

“We knew about this potential long before it became news and now UKOG has proven what the geology showed.  This is actually an extension of the same formation that was being extracted in the North Sea. It just comes on land, and ironically is not far from Gatwick Airport,” Faulkner said.

“This is a game changer for England, and they will now have to shift their entire focus on how to approach oil and gas production.  There’s too much at stake now for them not to,” he added.

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#UKIPmanifesto : Keeping the lights on

Posted: April 15, 2015 by tallbloke in Accountability, Big Green, Energy, fracking
Tags:

From Page 39 of the UKIP manifesto

The three old parties collude to reinforce failing energy policies that will do nothing to reduce global emissions, but which will bring hardship to British families. Their ‘green’ agenda does not make them friends of the earth; it makes them enemies of the people.

Download UKIP energy policy

Roger Helmer MEP Energy Spokesman.

Britain is sleepwalking into an energy crisis. Families suffer as energy prices rise relentlessly. Millions of us are living in fuel poverty.

While our major global competitors – the USA, China, India – are switching to low-cost fossil fuels, we are forced to close perfectly good coal-fired power stations to meet unattainable targets for renewable capacity. If we carry on like this, the lights are likely to go out.

Why? Because the 2008 Climate Change Act, an Act rooted in EU folly, drives up costs, undermines competitiveness and hits jobs and growth. Dubbed ‘the most expensive piece of legislation in British history,’ the government’s own figures put the cost of the Act at £18 billion a year over 40 years, or £720 billion between 2010 and 2050.The Climate Change Act is doing untold damage. UKIP will repeal it.

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Prediction using Titus-Bode Relation

Posted: April 15, 2015 by tchannon in Astrophysics

Ian Wilson suggests this paper ought to be aired.

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Exoplanet Predictions Based on the Generalised Titius-Bode Relation
Timothy Bovaird, Charles H. Lineweaver

ABSTRACT
We evaluate the extent to which newly detected exoplanetary systems containing at least four planets adhere to a generalized Titius-Bode (TB) relation. We find that the majority of exoplanet systems in our sample adhere to the TB relation to a greater extent than the Solar System does, particularly those detected by the Kepler mission. We use a generalized TB relation to make a list of predictions for the existence of 141 additional exoplanets in 68 multiple-exoplanet systems: 73 candidates from interpolation, 68 candidates from extrapolation. We predict the existence of a low-radius (R < 2.5R ? ) exoplanet within the habitable zone of KOI-812 and that the average number of planets in the habitable zone of a star is 1-2. The usefulness of the TB relation and its validation as a tool for predicting planets will be partially tested by upcoming Kepler data releases.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.3341
— Open access PDF from there

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A dying breed?

A dying breed?


How obvious does it have to be before supposed leaders notice the dire energy generation mess they’re creating with relentless subsidy of renewables and forced closure of some thermal power plants? Breitbart comments:

The future of Germany’s base load power supply is now in doubt as non-renewable energy sources cannot compete against subsidies, Reuters reports.

German energy industry association BDEW has stated that the planned new-build coal and gas fired power stations are potentially unprofitable and investors are nervous as a result. They will compete not only against the subsidies regime that benefits the renewables sector but also harsh restrictions on carbon emissions.

The construction of up to 39 planned stations may now be in doubt, meaning Germany will face supply bottlenecks soon especially as its nuclear power will be completely phased out by 2022. BDEW estimates a loss of 16.7 gigawatts in base load supply by this date.

This adds to problems previously reported by Breitbart with renewable power sources causing instability in the German grid.

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As I promised here is the result from the thermal radiation instruments where as expected little was seen through light cloud.

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Figure 1. CNR1 radiometer. (two pairs, looking up/down, short/long wavelength)

There is a minor effect during the eclipse. I live close by where the sun could be made out through light cloud. Around 12 hrs the cloud cleared abruptly. Video taken at Chilbolton shows similarly sudden sunshine.

Two factors in figure 1 need comment.

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Gas imports to bunker Europe?

Posted: April 13, 2015 by tchannon in Energy

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Image (c)2011 Maasmondmaritime [1]

We are told that gas is too expensive, we are told Russia is a bogey man and so on.

Then I find a bizarre news feed item linking to

Two LNG tankers set to arrive in Rotterdam and Zeebrugge
(Reuters) – Two liquefied natural gas tankers are heading towards the Dutch port of Rotterdam and Belgium’s Zeebrugge, Reuters shipping data showed.

The Arctic Voyager tanker is set to arrive in Rotterdam on April 17, while the Al Utouriya[2] should arrive in Zeebrugge around May 1.
[END]
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/13/uk-lng-tanker-idUKKBN0N40JA20150413

So? Why put up a cryptic news story?

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Dr Michele Casati is familiar to many Talkshop readers as an occassional contributor and for his blog.

A new study is being presented at EGU General Assembly 2015, held 12April – 15April, 2015 in Vienna, Austria

Relationship between major geophysical events and the planetary magnetic Ap index, from 1844 to the present

Michele,Casati; Valentino,Straser

Abstract

In this study, for the first time, we compared the annual magnetic Ap index, taken from original sources, from 1844 to the present day [Svalgaard,2014], with:

i) sixteen large volcanic eruptions of index VEI5 + recorded by, Smithsonian Institute (Global Volcanism Program), ii) three sets of the volcanic aerosols data [Ammann et.al,2003][Gao;Chaochao;Alan Robock;Caspar Ammann, 2008][Traufetter et.al,2004] and iii) eight major earthquakes of a magnitude between 8.7<M<9.5, which occurred from 1900 to the present.

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NCAR Research Data Archive Blog

2015-03-30
1938 atmospheric river that caused the Los Angeles flood of 1938
At least one person asked why I used a reanalysis that does not assimilate satellite water vapor data to study an atmospheric river (AR) event.

That’s a good question because the NOAA/CIRES Twentieth Century Global Reanalysis Version 2c (20thCR V2c) only ingests three things: surface pressure, sea ice coverage and sea surface temperature. The rest of the analysis is generated by the physical models of NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS).

http://ncarrda.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/1938-atmospheric-river-that-caused-los.html

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This failed work is presented as a cautionary tale but nevertheless there might be good parts.

Earlier oldbrew published an article on a theory by Nelson on forecasting the armada of radio propagation conditions. There were not many comments, possibly from the lack of solid further material.
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From this paper, we can see why the technique fell at the hurdle. Nevertheless looking at what people were thinking and doing is important.

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oldbrew:

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The idea that shipping could be releasing heat from the oceans has not been discussed much before.

Originally posted on Science Matters:

In response to my water world post, I was shown the wonderful phrase coined by Dr. Bernaerts:

“Climate is the continuation of oceans by other means”.

In was in 1992 he wrote in Nature appealing to the Rio conference to use the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) to better manage human impacts on the oceans, and thereby address climate concerns. Needless to say, that call fell on deaf ears.

He later elaborates: “Presumably science would serve the general public better when they would listen to Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) who said: “Water is the driver of nature”. Some say that nature rules climate, but water rules the nature on this earth, and the water on earth is so synonymous with the oceans and seas that it can be said: Climate is the continuation of the oceans by other means.”

Dr. Bernaerts is certainly a man worthy of…

View original 679 more words

The Earth is from Saturn - The Moon is from Jupiter

The concept of Axial Tilt [aka Obliquity] is very straightforward.

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Jodrell Bank radio telescope, Cheshire (UK) [credit: Mike Peel / Wikipedia]

Jodrell Bank radio telescope, Cheshire (UK)
[credit: Mike Peel / Wikipedia]


This is a new (to us) angle on certain lines of enquiry re. planetary theory in Talkshop blog posts.

John H. Nelson’s theory of propagation: Is there anything to it? – By David Dalton, K9WQ

In March 1951, John H. Nelson, an engineer for the RCA Communications Co. in New York, published an article in RCA Review describing a theory for predicting shortwave radio propagation over the North Atlantic. Nelson developed the theory by comparing planetary positions relative to the sun with logs of propagation conditions maintained at RCA’s receiving station at Riverhead, Long Island.

The article said that certain configurations of the six inner planets correlated with degraded propagation conditions. Nelson was not dogmatic about his theory. Rather, in the article and in a follow-up article published in May 1952, he encouraged further study [see footnote]. Nelson believed that his theory was about 85 percent accurate in its predictions.

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Will British landscapes head the way of areas of the US?

Will British landscapes head the way of areas of the US?

Post by Antony Nailer, reblogged  from UKIP Daily.

The environmentalists will have us believe that renewables are providing a valuable contribution to the UK energy needs and that the use of any fossil fuels is evil.  So now after years of our landscape and seascape being despoiled by huge rotating wind turbines and fields being covered with solar arrays let us consider where we now are.

Coal was at one time was a huge industry in the UK employing hundreds of thousands of people but now a shadow of its former self. It has recently been announced that one of the last two remaining mines, at Thoresbury in Nottinghamshire, is to close this year with the loss of 1300 jobs at the mine and presumably thousands more in associated supporting industry.

We still have nine coal-fired power stations that are not scheduled for closure any-time soon. There is one at Ironbridge in Shropshire due to close within the next few months and not included in the following list.

NAME LOCATION BUILT PRESENT OWNER MW
Aberthaw Barry, Glamorgan 1971 RWE npower 1500
Cottam Nottinghamshire 1969 EDF Energy 2008
Drax Selby, North Yorks 1974 Drax Group 3870
Eggborough Goole, East Riding 1967 British Energy 1960
Fiddlers Ferry Cuerdley, Cheshire 1971 SSE 1961
Ratcliffe on Soar Nottinghamshire 1968 E.ON 2000
Rugeley Staffordshire 1970 Int. Power 1006
West Burton Nottinghamshire 1968 EDF Energy 1972
Wilton Redcar & Cleveland 1951 SembCorp   197
Total continuous generation capacity 16,474MW (16.47GW). About 1/3rdof peak needs.

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Maps of sea surface temperature anomaly [credit: NOAA]

Maps of sea surface temperature anomaly [credit: NOAA]


What follows are extracts from the US NOAA’s own blog. They report: ‘After twelve months of El Niño Watches, we are issuing an El Niño Advisory.’ But the conditions are ‘extremely weak’ at this time [note: the maps shown are NOT current conditions]:

Over the last several months, we’ve seen warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including the Niño3.4 region, which we track as one indicator of El Niño. The seasonal Niño3.4 Index has been at or above 0.5°C since September, and the most recent weekly Niño3.4 index was +0.6°C.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled phenomenon, though, so we also monitor the atmosphere for signs that it is responding to those positive SST anomalies. For the last few months, we’ve been seeing some suggestions of borderline atmospheric El Niño conditions, but until this month [March] we were below that borderline. This month, we’ve finally crept above it, and thus NOAA is declaring the onset of El Niño conditions.

But what does it mean for North American and global weather?
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Giggle

Exclusive – California used 70 mln gallons of water in fracking in 2014

(Reuters) – California oil producers used 214 acre-feet of water, equivalent to nearly 70 million gallons, in the process of fracking for oil and gas in the state last year, less than previously projected, state officials told Reuters on Thursday.

  1. About 100,000 gallons of water is used on average, he said
  2. Previous industry estimates said that fracking used about 100 million gallons of water in California a year.

Classic media split, can’t write 0.1 million and 100 million, oh no, too boring, confused the dear muppits.

Also the item is a correction for paragraph 5.

  1. About 100,000 gallons of water is used on average, he said.

“(This version of the story deletes reference to “per well” in paragraph 5. …” oops.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/03/uk-california-drought-fracking-exclusive-idUKKBN0MU01O20150403

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