Planetary conjunction [image credit: EPA / Daily Mail]

Planetary conjunction [image credit: EPA / Daily Mail]


For the Jupiter-Venus-Mercury (JVMe) model, we start with this basic synodic conjunction relationship:
61 Jupiter-Venus (J-V) = 100 Venus-Mercury (V-Me) = 161 Jupiter-Mercury (J-Me) conjunctions in 39.58 years.
Orbit numbers per 39.58y: 64.337~ Venus, 164.337~ Mercury, 3.3365~ Jupiter
Jupiter-Venus-Mercury chart

[3 x 39.58 years = 118.74 years]


Since the ratio 61:100:161 is only one conjunction different from 60:100:160 (= 3:5:8), there is a very close match to a Fibonacci-based ratio as 3,5 and 8 are all Fibonacci numbers.

In the model we convert the orbits to whole numbers using a multiple of 3, to obtain a triple conjunction period where there are (very close to) a whole number of orbits of the relevant planets, as per the chart [right].

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Cooling The Past In The Faroes.

Posted: May 24, 2015 by tallbloke in methodology
Tags:

tallbloke:

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Another instance of ‘adjustments’ completely distorting temperature history – from Paul Homewood.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

Tinganes, Tórshavn old town

Thorshavn, Faroe Islands

In 2003, two proper scientists wrote a paper on the climate of the Faroe Islands, which lie between Iceland and Norway.

image

http://research.iarc.uaf.edu/NICOP/DVD/ICOP%202003%20Permafrost/Pdf/Chapter_026.pdf

They published this graph of air temperatures at the capital Torshavn.

image

And commented:

image

image

So we find confirmation of the 1925-40 warm period, and that the recent temperature rise is no more than a natural recovery from the colder 1950-80 interval.

Of course, temperatures may have risen since 2003, but the raw GISS data shows otherwise.

Below is their graph based on the raw GHCN V2 temperatures, as they appeared in 2011. (The warmest year was 2003 itself).

station

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=652060110003&dt=1&ds=1

Now, you can probably guess where we are going here!

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oldbrew:

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Let’s put this up for discussion as the dominant role of WV often gets buried in all the focus on man-made carbon dioxide emissions.

Originally posted on Musings from the Chiefio:

This posting just points to a very well done page that calculates the relative contributions to the greenhouse effect as used by the AGW thesis, by various gasses. In particular, it includes water vapor. The result is a conclusion that human caused CO2 is not relevant to global temperature. Something I have said before, but without the nice graphs and calculations.

It really is all about the water on our water world.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System

Just how much of the “Greenhouse Effect” is caused by human activity?

It is about 0.28%, if water vapor is taken into account– about 5.53%, if not.

This point is so crucial to the debate over global warming that how water vapor is or isn’t factored into an analysis of Earth’s greenhouse gases makes the difference between describing a significant human contribution to the greenhouse effect, or a negligible one.

Subscribe…

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Epicentre of the 4.3 quake was at 9.5km depth near Sandwich, Kent.

_83158800_england_kentquake

BBC report

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EU member Poland breaks ground on new coal fired plant

Posted: May 21, 2015 by tallbloke in Energy
Tags:
A groundbreaking ceremony has taken place in Poland on the site of a €800m lignite power plant in Turów.

The ceremony was attended by Poland’s Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz and representatives Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Europe (MHPSE), which will build the plant in co-operation with Polish company Budimex and Técnicas Reunidas from Spain.

MHPSE said that the lignite unit will have a gross capacity of just under 500 MW and an efficiency of more than 43 per cent. It will be operated by PGE, Poland’s largest power supplier.

MHPS Europe will supply the utility steam generator, the entire flue gas cleaning equipment, piping, turbine/generator, instrumentation & control and will also place the power plant into service.

The new unit – which is due to be operational in 2019 – will be built at an existing power plant where there are currently six units with an installed capacity of 1500 MW.

MHPSE chairman Rainer Kiechl said the new plant “will be one of the most modern of its type in the world”.

He added that it would make a “significant contribution to a dependable supply of power in an economy which is continuing to grow strongly”.

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oldbrew:

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It’s more than a rumour that batteries degrade within ten years.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

Musk with utility-scale “Powerpack.” (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

You may have heard about Elon Musk’s plans to save us all from climate apocalypse by selling us all Tesla batteries, so that we can store electricity from wonderful solar panels.

A couple of articles which go into the economic detail and find that the idea just does not stack up.

It sounds like an attempt to offset the losses from their core auto business.

View original 1,448 more words

Making beer from fog in Chile

Posted: May 20, 2015 by oldbrew in Clouds, innovation
Tags:

Made at The Fog Catcher Brewery [image credit: BBC]

Made at The Fog Catcher Brewery [image credit: BBC]


BBC News reports:
The dry, red earth could almost be mistaken for a Martian landscape. It is in fact the Atacama desert in Chile, one of the driest places on Earth.

Average rainfall here is less than 0.1mm (0.004 in) per year and there are many regions which have not seen any precipitation for decades.

But while there is little rain, the clouds here do carry humidity. Coastal fog forms on Chile’s shore and then moves inland in the form of cloud banks. The locals call it “camanchaca”.

Read the rest here.

Also from the report: ‘The largest expanse of fog catchers is located in Tojquia in Guatemala, where 60 fog catchers trap 4,000 litres of water a day.’

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NASA's next exoplanet hunter (TESS)  [image credit: MIT]

NASA’s next exoplanet hunter (TESS)
[image credit: MIT]


Try to imagine Saturn and Uranus orbiting the Sun in 8 and 12 days respectively. Far-fetched? In our solar system, yes, but something very similar has been observed in an exoplanetary star system, as was recently discussed by scientist and blogger Hugh Osborn, one of the co-authors of a study of the surprising 2-planet system.

In his blog post, Osborn notes re the March 2015 solar eclipse:
Calculating something so far ahead seems like an impressive feat but in fact astronomers can precisely work out exactly when and where eclipses will occur for not just the next hundred, but the next million years. Such is the way for most transiting exoplanets too, the calculations for which could probably be valid in thousands of years.

But a new planetary system, discovered by a team that includes Warwick astronomers (including me), doesn’t yet play by these rules. It consists of two planets orbiting their star, a late K star smaller than our sun, in periods of 7.9 and 11.9 days. The pair have radii 7- and 4-larger than Earth, putting them both between the sizes of Uranus and Saturn. They are the 4th and 5th planets to be confirmed in data from K2, the rejuvenated Kepler mission that monitors tens of thousands of stars looking for exoplanetary transits. (36 other planet candidates, including KIC201505350b & c, have been released previously).

But it is their orbits, rather than planetary characteristics, that have astronomers most excited. “The periods are almost exactly in a ratio of 1:1.5” explains Dave Armstrong, lead author of the study. This can be seen directly in how the star’s brightness changes over time. This lightcurve appears to have three dips of different depths, marked here by green, red and purple dips. ”Once every three orbits of the inner planet and two orbits of the outer planet, they transit at the same time”, causing the deep purple transits.

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imageA Navy submariner has released details of a nuclear deterrent that, if true, passes from one crisis to another, barely able to leave port, let alone pose a threat to potential enemies.

William McNeilly (Navy engineering technician submariner) has released a document cataloging his experiences training and serving on Britain’s multi billion pound nuclear missile submarine fleet. He lists countless examples of non existent security, fires, floods, equipment failures, fights and a collision. An attitude amongst the crews of lethargy, more akin to the Big Brother household than a fighting force. He describes a number of incidences that could easily have resulted in the loss of submarines and crews.

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Battsby: Farage-Oh

Posted: May 17, 2015 by tallbloke in Politics
Tags: ,

Guest post from Battsby

I have harboured a mistrust of the European Union and of politicians in general since long before 1975. I saw union power cripple industries; wildcat strikes, flying pickets, one-out/all-out and often on a whim. Two minutes-worth of tea break, efficiency drives, mechanisation and more; any excuse it seemed, back in the sixties and seventies and the all-powerful shop steward would snap his mighty fingers and the crack would be heard across the land. But in one thing the unions and I were agreed; there was something rotten about Project Europe.

Then after Wilson’s victory in 1974 on a promise to hold the first referendum in our history I saw the way in which the two sides, pro and con, handled the debate. Despite the overwhelming feeling in the country that we lost something of ourselves when Ted Heath signed us up, the big money of the ‘in’ campaign bombarded us with the slick propaganda of fear. We were already in, they said, and it’s fine. To leave before we gave it a chance would make us look ridiculous. As a declining world power our voice could only be heard as part of something bigger. If we weren’t inside the Common Market we would be outside all markets. It stank. And as a result of that stink the British pinched their noses and voted against their heart.

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A dying breed?

A dying breed?


A drastic energy policy change by the new UK government as GWPF reports:

Local residents will be able to block all future onshore wind farms under new measures to be fast-tracked into law, the new energy secretary has announced. “It will mean no more onshore wind farm subsidies and no more onshore wind farms without local community support.”

Amber Rudd revealed she had “put a rocket” under her officials to “put the local community back in charge” of their own neighbourhoods.

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US hurricane [image credit: NOAA]

US hurricane [image credit: NOAA]


Global warming pundits have failed miserably with regard to US hurricane frequency in recent years. NASA investigates:

The United States hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 or larger hurricane in nine years – a string of years that’s likely to come along only once every 177 years, according to a new NASA study.

The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.

Statistical analyses from hurricane track data indicate that for any particular Atlantic Hurricane season, there is about a 40 percent chance that a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) will make landfall in the continental United States. However, during the period from 2006 to 2014, no major hurricanes have made landfall.

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Things that wink in the night

Image

Analysis of Moon impact flashes detected during the 2012 and 2013 Perseids
José M. Madiedo, José L. Ortiz, Faustino Organero, Leonor Ana-Hernández, Fernando Fonseca, Nicolás Morales and Jesús Cabrera-Caño
A&A, 577 (2015) A118
Published online: 13 May 2015
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201525656 (open access on registration)

ABSTRACT
We present the results of our Moon impact flash detection campaigns performed around the maximum activity period of the Perseid meteor shower in 2012 and 2013. Just one flash produced by a Perseid meteoroid was detected in 2012 because of very unfavorable geometric conditions, but 12 flashes were confirmed in 2013. The visual magnitude of the flashes ranged between 6.6 and 9.3. A luminous efficiency of 1.8×10 -3 has been estimated for meteoroids from this stream. According to this value, impactor masses would range between 1.9 and 190 g. In addition, we propose a criterion for establishing, from a statistical point of view, the likely origin of impact flashes recorded on the lunar surface.

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BBC’s Climate Stance In Brazen Defiance Of The Law
Date: 07/03/15 Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph

When it comes to climate change, the BBC’s coverage is quite deliberately one-sided, argues Christopher Booker
bbc-greenpeace-medNext January will see the 10th anniversary of one of the most curious episodes in the history of the BBC. At a “secret seminar”, many of its most senior executives met with a roomful of invited outsiders to agree on a new policy that was in flagrant breach of its Charter. They agreed that, when it came to climate change, the BBC’s coverage should now be quite deliberately one-sided, in direct contravention of its statutory obligation that “controversial subjects” must be “treated with due accuracy and impartiality”. Anything that contradicted the party line, from climate science to wind farms, could be ignored.

The BBC Trust later reported that the seminar had taken this momentous decision on the advice of “the best scientific experts” present. Only years later, after the BBC had spent tens of thousands of pounds trying to suppress the identities of its “scientific experts”, did it emerge that they had been nothing of the kind. The room had been full of rabid climate activists, from pressure groups such as Greenpeace and Stop Climate Chaos.
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Nigel_Farage_MEP-sLast Thursday, UKIP gained nearly four million votes at the UK general election. This was a little less than half what the 100+ year old Labour party achieved, and a little more than a third of what the victorious Conservative party achieved. UKIP also overtook the Liberal Democrats to firmly establish itself as the third force in UK politics, despite the infamous ‘first past the post’ voting system giving UKIP only one parliamentary seat to represent its nearly 4,000,000 voters.

The party leader, Nigel Farage, narrowly lost in the contest for the Thanet South constituency. Having previously said it wouldn’t be tenable to remain as leader if he wasn’t able to lead the parliamentary party from within the house of commons, he offered his resignation. However, it turned out that the UKIP parliamentary party consisted of a single MP, Douglas Carswell, and Doug stated that he didn’t want to stand in a leadership election, as he had his constituents and family to take care of.

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Claims of up to 70% efficiency have been made for converting ‘wrong time’ electricity produced by intermittent generators such as wind turbines to ‘right time’ electricity supplied onto the grid. The proposed storage medium is liquid air (with co2 and water vapour first removed. This -190C medium is used to drive a piston engine without combustion, and waste heat is re-used.

dearman-engine

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Proton flux jump and earthquake

Posted: May 12, 2015 by tchannon in Astrophysics

Tim writes: The radio brought news of another [two] severe Nepal earthquakes today with more damage and deaths.

I logged in to the Talkshop and glanced at the space weather graphic, a step rise in proton flux today, a distinct event..

Image

Proton flux from NOAA

Checking with USGS

M7.3 – 18km SE of Kodari, Nepal
2015-05-12 07:05:19 (UTC)
M6.3 – 33km NNE of Ramechhap, Nepal
Timed 2015-05-12 07:36:53 (UTC)

nepal-ql

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amber-ruddWho is Amber Rudd? I hear you ask. Wikipedia tells us about her (lack of) expertise in energy policy and climate science:

After graduating from Edinburgh University with a degree in history, she joined J.P. Morgan & Co., working in both London and New York. She then worked in venture capital in London, raising funds for small businesses. After working as a financial journalist, she founded specialist Executive Search and Human Resources consultancy Lawnstone Ltd,[2]with clients in Financial services and in Business media.[3] She also recruited the extras for the film Four Weddings and a Funeral.

Great. What  else?

Rudd has been an active campaigner whilst in Parliament, standing up for women’s issues. She is Vice Chair of the APPG on Female Genital Mutilation, which has been campaigning against FGM and calling for tougher penalties and confidence to begin prosecutions in the UK. She has championed the cause of sex equality as Chairman of the APPG for Sex Equality,[5] which recently published a report on women in work. Rudd Chaired a cross party inquiry into “Unplanned Pregnancies” which called for statutory sex and relationships education in all secondary schools[6] She has called for a higher proportion of women in the Cabinet[7]

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This is an experimental work which I am sure has been done far better by professionals who will have proper access to special data and expertise. [updated with corrections]Image

Figure 1, overlay plots of pairs of almost raw datasets, in each case the Met Office areal mean temperature data for England and Wales, less annual, against gridded UAHTLT V6 beta 2, UAHTLT V5.6, RSSTLT V3.3, Hadcrut4 V4.3.0.0, the latter is unfair because it is gridded at 5 degrees instead of 2.5 degrees. In all cases the geographic area overlap is very approximate.

Click image for larger but preferably download this PDF (106KB) since as a vector plot zoom/enlargement and pan allow examination in great detail.

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