Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller: Exact Calculations of Climate Sensitivities Reveal the True Cause of Recent Warming

I’m delighted Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller have chosen the Talkshop as the venue for the publication of this new open peer review paper on climate sensitivity. Scientific advance at the cutting edge has always been the most important aim of this blog, and I think this paper truly is an advance in our understanding of the climate system and the factors which support and modulate surface temperature on Earth and other rocky planets. 

The paper is mathematically rigorous, but is also accessible to everyone, thanks to Ned and Karl’s exemplary effort to fully explain their concepts and definitions in terms which can be understood by any interested reader who has some familiarity with the climate debate. Building on the bedrock of their 2014 and 2017 papers, this new work extends the applicability and validates the postulates of those previous papers by examining the causes of variability in planetary surface temperature and incorporating the previous findings in quantifying and deriving equations to model them. They find that Earth is sensitive to changes in cloud cover, which affects the amount of solar shortwave radiation reaching the surface, but not very sensitive to changes in Total Solar Irradiance arriving at the top of the atmosphere. They also find that the sensitivity to changes in CO₂ levels has been heavily overestimated by current climate models. They show that a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration from 280 ppm to 560 ppm will cause an undetectable global warming of 0.004K.

A PDF of the paper can be downloaded here:  ECS_Universal_Equations.

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Exact Formulas for Estimating the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of Rocky Planets & Moons to Total Solar Irradiance, Absorbed Shortwave Radiation, Planetary Albedo and Surface Atmospheric Pressure.
Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. and Karl Zeller, Ph.D.
April, 2022

1. Introduction

The term “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity” (ECS) has become a synonym for the steady-state response of global surface temperature to a modeled long-wave radiative forcing caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration with respect to an assumed pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. According to climate models based on the Greenhouse theory, an increase of atmospheric CO₂ from 280 ppm to 560 ppm would produce a net radiative forcing (i.e. an atmospheric radiant-heat trapping) of 3.74 W m^-2 (Gregory et al. 2004) resulting in a global surface warming between 2.5 K and 4.0 K with a central estimate of 3.0 K according to IPCC AR6 (see p. 11 in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers). This implies an average unit ECS of 3.0/3.74 = 0.8 K / (W m^-2) with a range of 0.67 ≤ ECS ≤ 1.07 K / (W m^-2). Contemporary climate science and IPCC Assessment Reports do not discuss global temperature sensitivities to changes in cloud albedo, absorbed solar radiation or total surface atmospheric pressure. Consequently, no equations have been derived/proposed thus far to calculate these sensitivities. The reason for such an omission is the implicit assumption made by IPCC based on the 19^th-Century Greenhouse theory (Arrhenius 1896) that the observed warming during most of the 20^th Century and especially over the past 40 years was chiefly caused by an increase of industrial CO₂ emissions, which are believed to trap outgoing long-wave radiation in the Earth’s troposphere and reduce the rate of surface infrared cooling to Space.

However, a plethora of studies published during the past 15 years have shown through both satellite and surface observations that the absorption of solar radiation by the Earth-atmosphere system has increased significantly since 1982 due to a decreased cloud cover/albedo, a phenomenon often referred to as “global brightening” (e.g. Goode & Pallé 2007; Wild 2009; Herman et al. 2013; Stanhill et al. 2014; Hofer et al. 2017; Pfeifroth et al. 2018; Pokrovsky 2019;  Delgado-Bonal et al. 2020; Dübal & Vahrenholt 2021;  Yuan et al. 2021). This implies a global warming driven by a rising surface solar radiation rather than CO₂.

CLOUD discovers new way by which aerosols rapidly form and grow at high altitude

Ammonia in the upper troposphere originates from livestock and fertiliser emissions, say the researchers. CERN says “anthropogenic ammonia has a major influence on atmospheric aerosol particles”. Implications for climate models are suggested.
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Aerosol particles can form and grow in Earth’s upper troposphere in an unexpected way, reports the CLOUD collaboration in a paper published today in Nature.

The new mechanism may represent a major source of cloud and ice seed particles in areas of the upper troposphere where ammonia is efficiently transported vertically, such as over the Asian monsoon regions.

Aerosol particles are known to generally cool the climate by reflecting sunlight back into space and by making clouds more reflective. However, how new aerosol particles form in the atmosphere remains relatively poorly known.

Iceland Reykjanes volcano update – Alert level raised to yellow, magma activity near geothermal plant

Volcano alerts come and go, but magma disturbances under a geothermal plant are a bit different. A visit to the Blue Lagoon spa could get exciting…
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The alert level of the Reykjanes volcano in Iceland was just raised from green to yellow, says Strange Sounds.

This change was made in response to the confirmation of a new intrusion of magma on the Reykjanes peninsula.

This new intrusion is centered underneath the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, and is quite likely to result in a new volcanic eruption.

If an eruption were to occur, it would be likely to have an explosive component to it and potentially affect the city of Grindavik.

This video discusses the odds of a new volcanic eruption and how explosive it might be.
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Watchers News reports:
More than 3 000 earthquakes have been detected near Eldvörp in the Reykjanes/Svartsengi volcanic system in the past week. In addition, recent deformation observations identified the onset of a new inflation event west of Thorbjörn which is likely caused by magma intrusion.

Aramco dethrones Apple as the world’s most valuable company

Anti-fossil fuel types should ask themselves who’s doing all the buying and why. Whoever it may be, i.e. most countries, they don’t want to sit around waiting for renewables — which themselves need renewing every 20 years or so — to take over in some imaginary far distant future.
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Saudi Aramco reported a net profit of $39.5 billion for the first quarter of the year on the back of increasingly strong crude oil prices, reports OilPrice.com.

The figure represented an 82-percent annual improvement and a record quarterly profit for Aramco since it went public three years ago.

Media’s Favorite Bogeyman Falsely Blamed For S. Africa’s Tragic Floods

Too much instant attribution of single weather events to supposed human causes going on in today’s media, supported only (if at all) by rushed-out so-called analysis using climate models. Natural variation gets a low mark in this percentages blame game.
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A Google news search for the term “climate change,” over the past few days turns up dozens of stories in corporate media outlets blaming climate change for recent deadly floods in South Africa, says H. Sterling Burnett @ Climate Change Dispatch.

Although many of the stories accurately captured the pathos of the human tragedy resulting from South Africa’s floods, they all mispresented the facts: human-caused climate change did not cause the recent floods. [bold, links added]

History shows that floods regularly occur in South Africa because of its topography and regional ocean circulation patterns.

NOAA study finds reducing particulate air pollution in N America & Europe increases hurricanes in N Atlantic

The theme here is that aerosols have to some extent been having the opposite of the alleged effect of so-called greenhouse gases. This study, based on climate modelling, suggests at least some recent warming is linked to reductions in atmospheric aerosol content.
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A new NOAA study covering four decades of tropical cyclones found that reducing particulate air pollution in Europe and North America has contributed to an increase in the number of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin and a decrease in the number of these storms in the Southern Hemisphere, says Green Car Congress.

The open-access study, published in Science Advances, also found that the growth of particulate pollution in Asia has contributed to fewer tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin.

While a number of recent studies have examined how increasing greenhouse gas emissions are impacting global tropical cyclone activity, Hiroyuki Murakami examined the less studied and highly complex area of how particulate pollution in combination with climate changes is affecting tropical cyclones in different areas of the planet.

Heat pump costs soar because Britain’s radiators are ‘too small’

Domestic Air Source Heat Pump [image credit: UK Alternative Energy]

The ill-conceived ‘net zero’ emissions plan born of the UK government’s carbon dioxide obsessions takes another hit. Five-figure radiator installation bills will put people off bigtime.
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Homeowners trying to install eco-friendly heat pumps have been left with surprise £30,000 bills after it emerged millions of radiators are too small to work with the new technology, says The Telegraph.

The Government wants 600,000 heat pumps installed every year by 2028, in line with its “net zero” aims, but the majority of homes may need thousands of pounds worth of upgrades to accommodate them.

Heat pumps need larger radiators to achieve the same heat output as gas boilers, which heat water to much higher temperatures.

Some 99pc of British homes do not have radiators large enough to heat a room on the coldest winter’s day, using a low-temperature heat pump, the most common model, according to a Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy study.

“High temperature” heat pumps can help fix this but 90pc of homes would still need better radiators.

Full article here.

Electric vehicles could ‘fix the grid’? Still pushing an optimistic theory

Electric car home charging point [image credit: evcompare.ie]

Looks like yet another visit to cloud cuckoo land for climate alarmists fretting about trace gases in the atmosphere. They’re creating a massive problem with insistence on an EV-only future and now cast around frantically for solutions, as the clock ticks to chaos. Let’s try a food analogy: juggling oranges doesn’t give you more oranges.
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Transportation is the single biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, accounting for about a third of all emissions, says TechXplore.

We could quickly lower those emissions by electrifying vehicles, but there’s just one hitch: we don’t currently generate enough power.

“If all transportation goes electric, we are effectively doubling demand,” said Matthias Preindl, an EV expert at Columbia Engineering. “And the grid isn’t built to withstand that.”

Some Antarctic ice shelves grew in area over the last 20 years – study

Credit: British Antarctic Survey

Much ado about sea ice in recent times, but usually in terms of promoting climate alarm. On closer inspection East Antarctica (2/3rds of the continent) tells a somewhat different story.
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Some ice shelves in the eastern Antarctic have grown in the last 20 years despite global warming, a study suggests.

Researchers say that sea ice, pushed against the ice shelves by a change in regional wind patterns, may have helped to protect the ice shelves from losses, reports Yahoo News.

Ice shelves are floating sections of ice attached to land-based ice sheets and they help guard against the uncontrolled release of inland ice into the ocean.

How UK’s wind and solar expansion could lead to wasted electricity

[image credit: beforeitsnews.com]

By lurching from feast to famine and back, surplus to deficit — depending on weather, time of day and variations in demand. Cue calls for yet more expense to fix this entirely predictable but looming problem.
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The huge growth of the UK’s solar and wind could lead to an excess amount of electricity by 2030, says Energy Live News.

That’s according to a new study that suggests a huge amount of energy could go to waste if this expansion of renewable energy sources is not paired with a similar rise in the installation of energy storage technologies.

Consultancy LCP justified its forecast on the basis that Britain’s grid operates on a supply and demand process.

Researchers find biases in warming patterns in climate models of monsoons

Are ‘corrections’ the answer? Avoiding the need for them might be better. The researchers observe that ‘the projected warming in response to greenhouse gases is too great’. This has been known for years but the penny of reliance on a certain climate theory has yet to drop, it seems.
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Climate projections are crucial for adaptation and mitigation planning says Eurekalert.

The output of the latest round of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6) has been widely used in climate projections.

However, a subset of CMIP6 models is “too hot” and the projected warming in response to greenhouse gases is too great.

How to tackle the “hot model” problem at the regional scale had previously been unclear.

Exploding e-scooters kill four as heatwave damages batteries

Ballistic battery time again. Insurers and fire fighters must be nervous as mass battery-powered travel is supposed to be the future in many countries.
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There have been near daily reports of electric scooters catching fire across India amid record-breaking temperatures, says The Telegraph.

At least four Indians have died since March after their electric scooters caught fire, with record-breaking temperatures caused by climate change now feared to be behind the deadly blazes.

A father and daughter died in the southern state of Tamil Nadu in March, while two men died in two separate incidents in April in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

European Hypocrites Return To Fossil Fuels

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Politics: Putin effect overtakes greenhouse effect.

PA Pundits - International

By Duggan Flanakin ~

At the beginning of March, Frans Timmermans, the European Union’s Executive Vice President for the European Green New Deal and European Commissioner for Climate Action, announced that EU nations planning to burn coal as an alternative to Russian natural gas are not out of line with the EU’s climate goals.

The news came just a week ago that United Kingdom housing secretary Michael Gove would likely approve the nation’s first new coal mine in three decades. The new plant, if approved, would produce coking coal for steelmaking. The reason? Russian coal is toxic now.

In Germany, whose leaders have been busy decommissioning nuclear plants, RWE, Vattenfall, and Steagare now preparing to run their coal-fired power plants perhaps long beyond yesterday’s 2030 death date. Today, German coal companies are preparing power plants to operate at full speed, arming themselves in the event Russia cuts off…

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EU climate chief talks up hypothetical ‘green’ hydrogen

Credit: wheels.ca

Good luck with the costs and the leakage losses from shipping. Only last month the same source reported a study saying Germany’s global hydrogen plans could accelerate climate change. The study said ‘In the worst-case scenario, hydrogen could even prove 16 times more harmful than the widespread greenhouse gas.’ The EU obviously isn’t bothered by that study, or one by the British government warning of 13% leakage losses from tanker transport of hydrogen. ‘The 75-page report, Atmospheric Implications of Increased Hydrogen Use, explains that H2 is an indirect greenhouse gas, which reacts with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to increase their global warming potential (GWP)’. What real world problem do they think they’re trying to solve? Looks like yet another trip to cloud cuckoo land.
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Hydrogen will be essential for Europe’s future economy, particularly to store and transport green energy, EU climate chief Frans Timmermans told the European Parliament on Thursday (28 April) — Euractiv reporting.

“I strongly believe in green hydrogen as the driving force of our energy system of the future,” said Timmermans in a meeting with the environment committee.

“Hydrogen is going to be a pivotal element in our economy of the future,” he added in a discussion that covered the impact of the war in Ukraine, the state of play with Europe’s new climate legislation and food security.

Use of ‘too hot’ climate models exaggerates impacts of global warming

Too much hot air

We’ve been hearing this for years, but here it is again. It seems hard to get climate science to follow best practice and discard models that perform poorly against observational data, or at least the worst ones. Time’s up now as it’s getting too embarrassing, with the climate clearly failing to comply with ultra-warmist predictions. But over-optimistic belief that the models are nearly on course is still rife.
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U.N. report authors say researchers should avoid suspect models – from Science.org.

One study suggests Arctic rainfall will become dominant in the 2060s, decades earlier than expected. Another claims air pollution from forest fires in the western United States could triple by 2100. A third says a mass ocean extinction could arrive in just a few centuries.

All three studies, published in the past year, rely on projections of the future produced by some of the world’s next-generation climate models.

But even the modelmakers acknowledge that many of these models have a glaring problem: predicting a future that gets too hot too fast.

EU officials being trained to meditate to help fight climate crisis

Money to burn?

Take a deep breath…Sometimes there’s not much difference between a satirical spoof and a climate ‘crisis’ article.
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Exclusive: Early results from ‘applied mindfulness’ courses suggests they have helped overcome despair that little can be done, says The Guardian.

Brussels officials are being trained to meditate to help them tackle the climate crisis as part of a new wave of “applied mindfulness” that seeks to take the Buddhism-inspired practice “off the cushion” and into hard politics.

EU in cloud cuckoo land: selects 100 cities for goal of ‘climate neutrality’ by 2030

[image credit: latinoamericarenovable.com]

Climate neutrality is an imaginary goal. In reality it doesn’t exist but the phrase serves as a peg to hang an EU publicity gimmick on, as they try to imply it can make people healthier — among other dubious assertions.
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One hundred European cities have been selected to participate in an EU programme to rapidly cut emissions in urban areas, with the aim of reaching climate neutrality by 2030, says Euractiv.

Cities drawn from each member state will participate in the scheme, representing some 12% of the EU population.

A further 12 cities from outside of the bloc will take part.

The EU will invest €360 million to aid cities in their greening mission in 2022 and 2023, which it is hoped will spur further investments from the private sector.

Climate modellers want half the global economy cancelled

That’s what it amounts to, even if the phrasing is different. Scenarios based on theories of climate that aren’t borne out by reality are the curse of modelling. All they seem to come up with is impossible demand reduction i.e. much less of everything – except renewables of course. It can’t get any better while their built-in CO2 obsession persists.
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Renewable energy transition won’t come fast enough to solve the climate crisis—we also need to reduce global energy consumption, according to new research from UNSW Sydney.

The research, published recently in Climate Policy, models different energy-use scenarios for reducing global energy-related CO2 emissions to zero by 2050, says Phys.org.

It found that simply substituting fossil fuels with renewable energy at current energy usage levels is no longer enough.

Paris suspends electric bus fleet after fires

Image credit: sustainable-bus.com

H/T JohnM
One bus…30 fire fighters. Best wear running shoes and travel light if boarding such a vehicle. This has happened before.
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Dozens of electric buses will be taken off the streets of Paris temporarily “as a precaution” after two of the vehicles caught fire, public transport operator RATP said on Friday. The Local – France reporting.

Following a second blaze on Friday morning, in which no one was hurt, “RATP has taken the decision to suspend use of 149 electric buses” of manufacturer Bollore’s Bluebus 5SE model, the state-owned company said.

The number 71 bus that caught fire in southeast Paris early on Friday released thick clouds of black smoke and a strong smell of burning plastic, according to an AFP journalist on the scene.

“The bus driver immediately evacuated all the passengers. Nobody was hurt,” RATP said, while the city fire service said the blaze was put out by around 30 firefighters.

If That Tesla Battery Could Talk

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Replacing combustion with combustibility doesn’t make EV batteries as clean or green as is claimed.

Science Matters

Let’s imagine what an EV battery could tell us about its reality. A short story.  H/T Graeme Weber

The packed auditorium was abuzz; nobody seemed to know what to expect. The only hint was a large aluminum block sitting on a sturdy table on the stage.

When the crowd settled down, a scholarly-looking man walked out and put his hand on the shiny block, “Good evening,” he said, “I am here to introduce NMC532-X,” and he patted the block, “we call him NM for short,” and the man smiled proudly. “NM is a typical electric vehicle (EV) car battery in every way except one; we programmed him to send signals of the internal movements of his electrons when charging, discharging, and in several other conditions. We wanted to know what it feels like to be a battery. We don’t know how it happened, but NM began to talk after we…

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