Ned Nikolov: Does a Surface Solar Radiation Dataset Expose a Major Manipulation of Global Temperature Records?

Once again it’s my pleasure to publish a new paper by Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller at the Talkshop. In this study, we see the presentation of a climate conundrum, and recent surface solar radiation data which helps shed new light on the questions surrounding the ongoing adjustment of global temperature datasets. This new study applies theory developed in Ned and Karl’s previous paper to enable quantification of the global temperature drop during the “1970s ice-age scare”. This won’t be the last word on the topic, but it offers a solid grounding for further research.

A PDF version of this article can be downloaded here.

Implications of a New Gridded Dataset of Surface Solar Radiation
for the Evolution of Earth’s Global Surface Temperature Since 1960

Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. and Karl Zeller, Ph.D.
July, 2022

Abstract

A new data set of measured Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) covering six continents (Yuan et al. 2021) reveals that the Earth surface received annually 6.6 W m^-2 less shortwave energy in 2019 than it did in the early 1960s, and that the average solar flux incident on land decreased by 8.2 W m^-2 between 1962 and 1985. Since the Sun is the primary source of energy to the climate system, this pattern of SSR change over the past 60 years (oftentimes referred to as global dimming) suggests that the early 1960s were much warmer than the present. However, all modern records of global surface air temperature show a net warming of about 1.0 K between 1962 and 2019. We investigate this conundrum with the help of an independently derived model (previously verified against CERES observations) that accurately converts observed SSR anomalies into changes of global surface temperature. Results from the SSR-based temperature reconstruction are compared to observed global surface temperatures provided by UAH 6.0 and HadCRUT5 datasets. We find that the SSR-based global temperature estimates match quite well the UAH satellite record from 1982 to the present in terms of overall trend and interannual variability suggesting that the observed warming of the past 40 years was the result of a decreased cloud albedo and an increased SSR rather than rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The HadCRUT5 record also shows a satisfactory agreement with the SSR-based temperatures over the same time period. However, between 1962 and 1983, the SSR-based temperature reconstruction depicts a steep global cooling reaching a rate of -1.3 K/decade during the 1970s. This is drastically different from the mild warming claimed by HadCRUT5 over this time period. The cooling episode indicated by the SSR data is corroborated by more than 115 magazine and newspaper articles published throughout the 1970s as well as a classified CIA Report from 1974 all quoting eminent climatologists of the day, who warned the public that the observed worldwide drop of temperatures threatened the global food supply and economic security. Based on this, we conclude that researchers in charge of the HadCRUT dataset have likely removed the 1962 – 1983 cooling episode from the records before the publication of HadCRUT1 in 1994 in an effort to hide evidence contradicting the UN Resolution 43/53 from 1988, which proclaimed a global warming caused by greenhouse gases as a major societal concern, and urged Governments to treat it as a priority issue in climate research and environmental protection initiatives.

1. Introduction

It is a matter of conventional wisdom now that the Earth was significantly cooler during 1960s compared to the 21^st Century. Similarly, no one disputes that the planet’s surface temperature was 1.2^oC lower in the beginning of the 20^th Century compared to the present. This paradigm of climate change is based on surface temperature records maintained by several research teams that show remarkable consistency with one another. Figure 1 portrays global temperature anomalies based on 6 datasets supposedly constructed using different approaches summarized by Morice et al. (2021). All global records depict a nearly continuous warming since 1920 with a brief pause of the temperature rise between 1940 and 1980. No record shows a drop of global temperature between 1960 and 1980, which is at odds with a well-documented, decade-long discussion in the media about an ongoing rapid cooling during the 1970s currently known as the “1970s ice-age scare”.

Figure 1. Global surface temperature anomaly from 1850 to 2021 according to 6 official data sets. Note the remarkable consistency among various time series (borrowed from Fig. 8 of Morice et al. 2021).

Is the Cloud damaging the planet? – asks BBC TV’s Panorama

Hyperscale data center in Dublin developed by EdgeConneX. (Image credit: EdgeConneX)

The BBC thinks we should agonise over our ‘carbon footprint’ in relation to computer data centres, due to their massive use of electricity (and water). It’s supposed to be a ‘crisis for which we are all to blame’. Another question then: how is this not also a problem for advocates of expanding electric power into transport and other areas of energy usage with lithium batteries, which are produced with huge volumes of water in the mining process and soak up vast amounts of electricity when collectively recharged?
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Today Monday 6 February 2023, there is a new episode of Panorama. Is the Cloud Damaging the Planet?

The Cloud is fantastic, and we all have come to rely on it, says Memorable TV.

It’s where all of our memories and correspondence live, the engine behind all of our web searches, and the conduit for all of our television binges.

Cloud computing, however, requires massive data centres that consume tremendous quantities of both water and electricity behind the scenes.

Arctic blast brings record cold to the US

Ouch! The ‘rapidly warming’ Arctic, as climate alarmists like to claim, can still pack a hefty punch. Weren’t such days supposed to be over, in theory at least?
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Weather authorities say an “epic, generational Arctic outbreak” caused record cold temperatures and life-threatening conditions in the northeastern United States on Saturday, reports DW.com.

The summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire reported a low of minus 78 Celsius (minus 108 Fahrenheit) — the coldest temperature ever recorded in the United States.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Caribou, Maine, said it received reports of “frostquakes.”

Why have there been no named winter storms this year? – BBC

Omega blocking highs can remain in place for several days or even weeks [image credit: UK Met Office]

Bring on the loaded questions, such as ‘How does climate change affect windstorms?’ The BBC casts around for suspects, like La Niña and meandering polar jet streams, but it’s all inconclusive. Are the ‘extreme weather’ climate obsessives feeling deprived?
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By February, the UK would normally have had around three storms given names by the Met Office – just like Arwen, Barra and Callum, says BBC News.

But so far this autumn and winter, there hasn’t been a single one.

Weather patterns have been calmer across the Atlantic and towards northwest Europe. But why?

Study finds three phases of glacier advance in Northern Antarctic Peninsula in the last 1,500 years

Credit: coolantarctica.com

Glaciers advance and retreat. Repeating cycles of natural climate variation exposed.
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Receding glaciers in the northern Antarctic Peninsula are uncovering and reexposing black moss that provides radiocarbon kill dates for the vegetation, a key clue to understanding the timing of past glacier advances in that region, says Phys.org.

A University of Wyoming researcher led a study that determined the black moss kill dates coincide with evidence of glacier advances from other studies that found such events occurred 1,300, 800 and 200 calibrated years prior to 1950.

“We used radiocarbon ages, or kill dates, of previously ice-entombed dead black mosses to reveal that glaciers advanced during three distinct phases in the northern Antarctic Peninsula over the past 1,500 years,” says Dulcinea Groff, a postdoctoral research associate in the UW Department of Geology and Geophysics.

Achieving Net Zero In The Graveyard Of The Failed Green Religion

Leaders posing as controllers of the weather demand impossible to achieve and damaging energy policies. Is this (cartoon) where net zero is taking us? Ignoring the sun won’t work.
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According to the clerics of the Green Cult, once we blow up our last coal mine, send all diesel engines to the wreckers, stop using concrete, reinvent sailing clippers, cover the grasslands and hills with solar clutter and wind machines, and then slaughter all of our cattle… global climate will become serene – not too warm, not too cold, writes Viv Forbes (via Climate Change Dispatch).

Wild weather will cease, and there will be no more droughts, floods, cyclones, or snowstorms and no more plant and animal extinctions.

But the records written in the rocks tell a far different story about climate changes. Even when nature was in full control, it was not a serene place.

Benzene and toluene in polar oceans have a biological origin, study finds

Natural aerosols, not ‘human pollution’. Another climate assumption gets blown out of the water.
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In addition to oxygen, nitrogen or carbon dioxide, the air we breathe contains small amounts of organic gases, such as benzene and toluene, says Phys.org.

These oxidize into small particles or aerosols that contribute to the condensation of water in the droplets that form clouds.

Now, a study by the Institut de Cièncias del Mar (ICM-CSIC), the Instituto de Química Física Rocasolano (IQFR-CSIC) and the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) stresses the importance of clouds, which filter solar radiation, for understanding past and future climate changes.

“If we don’t get the clouds right, we won’t get the climate right,” says Charel Wohl, ICM-CSIC researcher and lead author of the study. “We are just beginning to unveil the multiple ingredients that form cloud seeds,” he adds.

Desert dusts convert coral reefs into carbon storage

Australian coral [image credit: heraldsun.com.au]

Professor: “this study actually contributes to more accurate accounting of carbon around the globe.” Nature’s carbon cycle continues to surprise researchers.
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An international study comparing data from Heron Reef and the Middle East’s Gulf of Aqaba has disproved the long-held theory that coral reefs only have the capacity to emit CO2, reports Phys.org.

The first-of-its-kind discovery is the result of an international study led by The University of Queensland which found that dust blown in from nearby deserts can convert coral reefs into CO2 sinks.

Professor Hamish McGowan from UQ’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences said the discovery was made after researchers observed a correlation between influxes of CO2 and periods of increased dust concentrations in the atmosphere around the reefs.

“We were surprised at how significant a role dust accumulation played in switching coral reefs from a CO2 source to a CO2 sink,” Professor McGowan said.

“This process was previously thought to be impossible, but our research proves otherwise.

“We found that the build-up of dust in the traditionally low-nutrient and low-chlorophyll waters of the Gulf of Aqaba actually fertilizes and improves coral-growing conditions and photosynthesis in reef ecosystems.”

Professor McGowan said the results will allow for the development of more accurate carbon budgets for the world’s oceans.

“The process we have identified in this study actually contributes to more accurate accounting of carbon around the globe,” Professor McGowan said.

“This informs predictions of the impact of atmospheric carbon on climate and climate sensitive ecosystems such as coral reefs.”
. . .
The research establishes the causal controls on reef water temperatures, as opposed to previous predictions which were more focused on the correlation of global warming and coral bleaching.

Professor Lensky said these findings will allow researchers to correctly attribute the cause of, for example, extreme high water temperature events that result in coral bleaching.

“Our research, which included analysis of data collected at Heron Reef on the Great Barrier Reef, has confirmed the crucial role of local meteorology and the prevailing weather patterns in determining reef water temperatures,” Professor Lensky said.

Full report here.
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Earlier research: Dust in Earth system can affect oceans, carbon cycle, temperatures, and health (2010) – ScienceDaily

2050: The never-ending nightmare of Net Zero

Classifying this as humour may not be appropriate, but we live in hope.
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IT IS the year 2050 and Britain, relentlessly driven by the governing Labour-Green coalition, has achieved Net Zero, imagines David Wright @ TCW (The Conservative Woman).

The nation is quite unrecognisable from the comfortable, well-fed country it was in the early part of the 21st century.

Massive wind turbines cover the landscape; the old ones built 25 years ago now knocked down and lying next to the new ones because it was uneconomic to remove them.

The whole country is covered in a dense spider’s web of power lines from the multitude of wind and solar farms miles from where the power is needed.

China’s North Pole – where record low temperatures plunge to -53C

Beiji Village in Mohe, China’s northernmost city [image credit : china.org.cn]

The reporter here says it’s ‘so cold it feels uncomfortable in your lungs’ then goes on to speculate on possible/imagined links to global warming aka climate change. ‘Research suggests’…etc. The freezing cold air coming south from Siberia gets billed as an ‘extreme weather event’.
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Mohe is known as China’s North Pole for a good reason, says Sky News.

It is the country’s most northern city and is a very, very cold place.

It’s difficult to describe what temperatures this low feel like.

On Sunday it hit -53C, a new low for the coldest temperature recorded in the country since modern monitoring began.

The National Meteorological Centre confirmed the previous record of -52.3C, set in 1969, had been beaten.

Electric Cars: Square Peg, Round Hole

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Who wants to pay a lot more for a less useful product that loses its value much faster than what it’s supposed to be replacing – in order to achieve what?

PA Pundits International

By Duggan Flanakin ~

The big story of 2023 just might be the clash between those who have imposed electric vehicle mandates and those for whom an electric vehicle is not on their shopping list.

The federal government, many state governments, and much of the automobile industry – and their counterparts worldwide – have decreed that the world abandon the internal combustion engine in favor of the (often-coal-fired) electric vehicle.

Mandates for banning new sales of conventional vehicles are as plentiful as schemes to disallow further production of “evil” fossil fuels that brought a total transformation of the world economy in little more than a century. Moreover, most automakers have pledged to end production of conventional vehicles within the next few years.

While sales of EVs “boomed” last year, the 6 million EVs still comprise less than half a percent of the world’s 1.4 billion vehicles. Yet Bloomberg…

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Science Writer Warns Ozone Hole Recovery Claims Likely Premature, Too Optimistic

Credit: earthhow.com

Is there a role for natural climate variation here, and if so, what is going on?
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Claims by a UN-backed expert panel that the ozone layer is healing and headed to full recovery may be premature and overly optimistic, Net Zero Watch’s Science Editor Dr. David Whitehouse has warned.

Any internet search will find hundreds of news stories announcing that the ozone hole over the Antarctic is slowly filling and that by about the middle of this century mankind’s vandalism of this natural atmospheric layer will have been remedied, says Benny Peiser via Climate Change Dispatch.

The ozone hole has become an icon of anthropogenic interference in the natural world — and a hopeful signpost that there is a way back. But is the ozone hole healing? Not by as much as many headlines suggest, it would appear.

In Unexpected Swing, Germany’s Public Now Favors Nuclear Power

Isar nuclear power site, Bavaria

Replacing what worked with what sounded good is finally running up against reality. The days of indulging in fantasy energy futures are fading. There’s so-called climate policy, and then there’s the need to survive the winters and keep the lights on. Back to the future.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing a rethink of energy security not only in Germany but also by the entire continent, and nuclear power is one of the winners, says OilPrice.com.

For decades, Germany has maintained a love-hate relationship with nuclear power. Currently, Germany has three existing nuclear reactors that produce ~6% of the country’s power supply, a far cry from the 1990s when 19 nuclear power plants produced about a third of the country’s electricity supply.

The genesis of the current state of affairs can be traced back to 1998 when a new center-left government consisting of the Greens party and Social Democrats started demanding that the country moves away from nuclear power, a long-held objective of the Greens.

Earth’s inner core rotating slower than surface, study suggests

Some uncertainties with this topic. Researchers here propose a 70-year cycle, but other theories say 20-30 years, or even no cycle at all.
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Earth’s inner core, a hot iron ball the size of Pluto, has stopped spinning faster than the planet’s surface and might now be rotating slower than it, research suggested on Monday.

Roughly 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles) below the surface we live on, this “planet within the planet” can spin independently because it floats in the liquid metal outer core, says Phys.org.

Exactly how the inner core rotates has been a matter of debate between scientists—and the latest research is expected to prove controversial.

Researchers propose compulsory climate change teaching in core law curriculum

[image credit: latinoamericarenovable.com]

Sounds vaguely sinister — where does education end and indoctrination start? No prizes for guessing which climate theories would get to be ‘taught’.
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Academics from Durham University are urging that climate change education should be made compulsory across the core law curriculum, says Eurekalert.

The researchers evaluated students’ engagement and their broader views concerning climate change education by integrating climate change and environmental law into the core curriculum at the University of Exeter, a Russell Group University.

The results showed that law students want to study climate law and the climate context of law as part of their core curriculum.

Students also said that climate change education should be compulsory and taught across the programme.

N. Hemisphere Temps Set To Fall Over Next 25 Years, Say Top Intl. Scientists

Too much hot air

Predictions like this may or may not come true. Warmists may have to wheel out their standard ‘natural cooling masking human-caused warming’ excuse again.
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Whisper it quietly – and don’t tell Al ‘Boiling Oceans’ Gore – but the Northern Hemisphere may be entering a temperature cooling phase until the 2050s with a decline up to 0.3°C.

By extension, the rest of the globe will also be cooled, says Chris Morrison (via Climate Change Dispatch).

These sensational findings, ignored by the mainstream media, were released last year and are the work of six top international scientists led by Nour-Eddine Omrani of the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

A seismic climate connection?

As a starting point to the discussion, a graph is shown with a correlation between seismic activity and temperature over the last 40+ years. The author’s closing comment: ‘So the oceans are “boiling” and apparently Al Gore has a magic co2 fairy that is doing it.’
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I will be brief ( relatively), says meteorologist Joe Bastardi @ CFACT.

In a paper coming out, “Increased Mid-Ocean Seismic Activity: Fact or Artifact?” Dr. Arthur Viterito has confirmed my suspicions that geothermal input from the increased seismic activity is a leading cause of the warming, if not the almost total cause.

As much as the co2 crowd keeps pointing to the rise in temperature and increased emissions they ignore the fact that the air temperatures go virtually nowhere without the oceanic warming and the input of WV in the air.

The oceans are not warming via co2 feedback. Arguments about co2’s effect on the air ignore the oceanic warming.

So what is warming the ocean? Dr Viterito supplies the smoking gun to my suspicions.

Continued here.
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Al Gore WEF Meltdown: ‘Boiling the Oceans,’ ‘Rain Bombs,’ a Billion ‘Climate Refugees’ — Breitbart News

Rain stopped York council’s £500k electric bin lorries working

Risky business [image credit: safetysource.co.nz]

York is a notoriously flood-prone place and these wagons under-performed in a big way, restricting themselves to cricketing weather. The costly attempt to help save the planet by adopting net-zero climate dogma thus faltered. The ‘wrong type of weather’ excuse used to refer to UK trains, but now it’s moved on.
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Two electric bin lorries bought by City of York Council in a bid to cut carbon emissions were unable to operate when it rained, it has emerged.

Rain caused the wagons to be taken off the city’s roads for up to 26 days a month several times last year, reports BBC News.

The vehicles stopped working for a combined total of 481 days between January 2021 and November 2022.

The council bought the vehicles in 2020 as part of its drive to achieve net zero emissions by 2030.

Andrew Neil accuses Keir Starmer of posing as Greta Thunberg over North Sea opposition

North Sea oil platform [image credit: matchtech.com]

Another victim of ‘net zero’ numptythink? Whether it’s gas, oil or coal, it’s always better to import fuel than use your own according to climate obsessives.
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Veteran Scots broadcaster Andrew Neil has blasted Sir Keir Starmer over his opposition to new North Sea oil and gas as he accused him of posing as “the British Greta Thunberg”, reports the Scottish Daily Express.

The UK Labour leader came under fire after he told a panel at the World Economic Forum that if he became Prime Minister he would block any new explorations in the north-east of Scotland.

He joined the SNP and the Scottish Greens in agreeing that the oil and gas industry needs to be shuttered in a bid for the country to achieve its net zero goals.

However, this would leave thousands of workers in the north-east jobless, with Rishi Sunak confirming that he is aiming to protect their livelihoods.

Where’s The Electricity?

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Electricity: before you can use it you have to generate it, and the worldwide demand only ever goes up.
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PA Pundits International

By Ronald Stein ~

One of the best-known quotes was “where’s the beef?“ from Clara Peller who was a manicurist and American character actress who, at the age of 81, starred in the 1984  advertising campaign for the Wendy’s fast food restaurant chain.

Today, the huge dark cloud over EV projected sales, is the availability of electricity to charge batteries which leads us to the quote for the foreseeable future, Where’s the electricity?

The Elephant in the EV sales room that no one wants to talk about is the limited amount of electricity available to charge the EV batteries.

The global fleet of road vehicles in 2022 numbered about 1.446 billion, that’s with a “B”.

Of this huge global fleet, only 12 million were electric vehicles (EV) in 2021. Thus, less than one percent of the worldwide road vehicle fleet were EVs, and more than 99-percent…

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Scientists offer a new explanation for a mystery surrounding Jupiter’s two massive asteroid swarms

The lead researcher spoke of “a new and natural explanation for the unbiased observation, that the L4 asteroids are about 1.6 times more than the asteroids in the L5 swarm.” In other words, a ratio of 8:5. In 2018 another team, studying Jupiter’s poles, ‘found an octagon-shaped grouping over the north pole, with eight cyclones surrounding one in the middle, and a pentagon-shaped batch over the south pole. Each cyclone measures several thousand miles (kilometers) across.’ Again, a ratio of 8:5.
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An international team of scientists, including NYU Abu Dhabi researcher Nikolaos Georgakarakos and others from the U.S., Japan, and China, led by Jian Li from Nanjing University, has developed new insights that may explain the numerical asymmetry of the L4 and L5 Jupiter Trojan swarms, two clusters containing more than 10,000 asteroids that move along Jupiter’s orbital path around the sun.

For decades, scientists have known that there are significantly more asteroids in the L4 swarm than the L5 swarm, but have not fully understood the reason for this asymmetry, says Phys.org.

In the current configuration of the solar system, the two swarms show almost identical dynamical stability and survivability properties, which has led scientists to believe that the differences came about during earlier times of our solar system’s life.