Ned Nikolov: Does a Surface Solar Radiation Dataset Expose a Major Manipulation of Global Temperature Records?

Once again it’s my pleasure to publish a new paper by Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller at the Talkshop. In this study, we see the presentation of a climate conundrum, and recent surface solar radiation data which helps shed new light on the questions surrounding the ongoing adjustment of global temperature datasets. This new study applies theory developed in Ned and Karl’s previous paper to enable quantification of the global temperature drop during the “1970s ice-age scare”. This won’t be the last word on the topic, but it offers a solid grounding for further research.

A PDF version of this article can be downloaded here.

Implications of a New Gridded Dataset of Surface Solar Radiation
for the Evolution of Earth’s Global Surface Temperature Since 1960

Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. and Karl Zeller, Ph.D.
July, 2022

Abstract

A new data set of measured Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) covering six continents (Yuan et al. 2021) reveals that the Earth surface received annually 6.6 W m^-2 less shortwave energy in 2019 than it did in the early 1960s, and that the average solar flux incident on land decreased by 8.2 W m^-2 between 1962 and 1985. Since the Sun is the primary source of energy to the climate system, this pattern of SSR change over the past 60 years (oftentimes referred to as global dimming) suggests that the early 1960s were much warmer than the present. However, all modern records of global surface air temperature show a net warming of about 1.0 K between 1962 and 2019. We investigate this conundrum with the help of an independently derived model (previously verified against CERES observations) that accurately converts observed SSR anomalies into changes of global surface temperature. Results from the SSR-based temperature reconstruction are compared to observed global surface temperatures provided by UAH 6.0 and HadCRUT5 datasets. We find that the SSR-based global temperature estimates match quite well the UAH satellite record from 1982 to the present in terms of overall trend and interannual variability suggesting that the observed warming of the past 40 years was the result of a decreased cloud albedo and an increased SSR rather than rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The HadCRUT5 record also shows a satisfactory agreement with the SSR-based temperatures over the same time period. However, between 1962 and 1983, the SSR-based temperature reconstruction depicts a steep global cooling reaching a rate of -1.3 K/decade during the 1970s. This is drastically different from the mild warming claimed by HadCRUT5 over this time period. The cooling episode indicated by the SSR data is corroborated by more than 115 magazine and newspaper articles published throughout the 1970s as well as a classified CIA Report from 1974 all quoting eminent climatologists of the day, who warned the public that the observed worldwide drop of temperatures threatened the global food supply and economic security. Based on this, we conclude that researchers in charge of the HadCRUT dataset have likely removed the 1962 – 1983 cooling episode from the records before the publication of HadCRUT1 in 1994 in an effort to hide evidence contradicting the UN Resolution 43/53 from 1988, which proclaimed a global warming caused by greenhouse gases as a major societal concern, and urged Governments to treat it as a priority issue in climate research and environmental protection initiatives.

1. Introduction

It is a matter of conventional wisdom now that the Earth was significantly cooler during 1960s compared to the 21^st Century. Similarly, no one disputes that the planet’s surface temperature was 1.2^oC lower in the beginning of the 20^th Century compared to the present. This paradigm of climate change is based on surface temperature records maintained by several research teams that show remarkable consistency with one another. Figure 1 portrays global temperature anomalies based on 6 datasets supposedly constructed using different approaches summarized by Morice et al. (2021). All global records depict a nearly continuous warming since 1920 with a brief pause of the temperature rise between 1940 and 1980. No record shows a drop of global temperature between 1960 and 1980, which is at odds with a well-documented, decade-long discussion in the media about an ongoing rapid cooling during the 1970s currently known as the “1970s ice-age scare”.

Figure 1. Global surface temperature anomaly from 1850 to 2021 according to 6 official data sets. Note the remarkable consistency among various time series (borrowed from Fig. 8 of Morice et al. 2021).

France to pay up to €500m for falling short of renewable energy targets

St. Nazaire wind farm

Move over, carbon credits. Here come ‘statistical megawatts’.

H/T Tallbloke
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France is the only one of the 27 EU member states to have missed its objective for 2020, when renewable energy represented 19.1% of its consumption, below the 23% target, says Le Monde.

For failing to reach its European targets for renewable energy in 2020, which it had set itself a decade earlier, the French state will have to pay out several hundred million euros.

“It will cost France €500 million this year for not having met its target for renewable energy,” the Minister for Energy Transition told MPs on Monday, November 21, as reported by the French daily newspaper Libération.

MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen rejects ‘climate change’ as ‘a quasi-religious movement predicated on an absurd ‘scientific’ narrative’

Dr. Lindzen – a long-time critic of IPCC-sponsored climate theories – argues, among other things, that ‘Changes in mean temperature are primarily due to changes in the tropic-to-pole difference, and not to changes in the greenhouse effect.’ Unfortunately decades at the forefront of climate research don’t count with some people unless you’re making the right alarmist noises.

H/T Climate Depot
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Dr. Richard Lindzen’s new paper: An Assessment of the Conventional Global Warming Narrative. – Published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation – September 22, 2022:

Climate change is “a quasi-religious movement predicated on an absurd ‘scientific’ narrative. The policies invoked on behalf of this movement have led to the US hobbling its energy system.” –

“The Earth’s climate has, indeed, undergone major variations, but these offer no evidence of a causal role for CO₂.”

“Unless we wake up to the absurdity of the motivating narrative, this is likely only to be the beginning of the disasters that will follow from the current irrational demonization of CO₂.”

Source here.

Prince William’s Earthshot prize won’t save the planet

[image credit: latinoamericarenovable.com]

The Prince promotes a goal of ‘a stable climate’, which has never existed before except in someone’s imagination. Net zero fantasy rumbles on.
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I hate to pour cold water on the Prince of Wales’ big night out in Boston on Friday, where he hosted the Earthshot Prize for climate change solutions, says Ross Clark @ The Spectator.

William needs all the help he can get to distract attention from his brother and sister-in-law as they continue their crazed attack on the royal family.
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If we are going to have a prize which genuinely helps get us close to net zero emissions by 2050, an affordable means of carbon capture is certainly one thing you would hope would be among the five winners.

Clouds less climate-sensitive than assumed

Cumulus clouds from above [image credit: Jakec @ Wikipedia]

From airborne observations, these researchers find ‘trade-wind clouds are far less sensitive to global warming than has long been assumed’. Their study says: ‘Our observational analyses render models with large positive feedbacks implausible’. Consequently, they believe, extreme rise in Earth’s temperatures is less likely than previously thought.
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In a major field campaign in 2020, Dr. Raphaela Vogel who is now at Universität Hamburg’s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) and an international team from the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in Paris and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg analyzed observational data they and others collected in fields of cumulus clouds near the Atlantic island of Barbados.

Their analysis revealed that these clouds’ contribution to climate warming has to be reassessed, says Eurekalert.

“Trade-wind clouds influence the climate system around the globe, but the data demonstrate behavior differently than previously assumed. Consequently, an extreme rise in Earth’s temperatures is less likely than previously thought,” says Vogel, an atmospheric scientist.

Laurence Fox: The Top FIVE Climate Change LIES

Laurence Fox breaks apart the lies repeatedly fed to the public and details the manipulation by the billionaire-funded lobby groups and activists, says Climate Change Dispatch.

If you’re skeptical about climate change or the impact of the environment on our planet, this video is for you.

Sea floor evidence from millennia of Atlantic storms tells its own story

Hurricane Dorian

If ‘evidence indicates that the Atlantic has experienced even stormier periods in the past than we’ve seen in recent years’, as stated below, then natural variation can easily account for whatever happened in those recent years. No need to invoke changes to the level of any minor trace gases to explain the data.
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If you look back at the history of Atlantic hurricanes since the late 1800s, it might seem hurricane frequency is on the rise, says The Conversation (via Phys.org).

The year 2020 had the most tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with 31, and 2021 had the third-highest, after 2005. The past decade saw five of the six most destructive Atlantic hurricanes in modern history. [Talkshop comment – define ‘destructive’, money-based comparisons tell us nothing]

Then a year like 2022 comes along, with no major hurricane landfalls until Fiona and Ian struck in late September.

What may be the largest source of abiotic methane gas on Earth

Natural gas flare [credit: Wikipedia]

abiotic — Not associated with or derived from living organisms. Calling methane, aka natural gas, a ‘fossil fuel’ is shown by geological evidence to be inaccurate.
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Methane (CH4), the chief constituent of natural gas, is one of the most widely used “clean” fuels, says Phys.org.

Although methane is usually considered to originate from organic matter, recently, more and more evidence shows that methane can be produced by abiotic processes.

In a recent paper published in National Science Review (NSR), Professor Lifei Zhang’s team from Peking University demonstrated that large amounts of methane gas can form during prograde metamorphism in a cold subduction zone, evidenced by the massive CH4-rich fluid inclusions in eclogites from Western Tianshan, China.

UK National Grid avoids emergency blackout measures in supply scramble

Winter isn’t even here yet. But with a colder weather spell plus low wind speeds around the corner, trouble is already brewing for renewables-infested electricity supplies. Somehow it’s linked to problems in France and/or Ukraine, according to this report.
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National Grid opted against implementing emergency measures to stave off blackouts tomorrow, escalating fears of supply shortages this winter, reports City A.M.

The company’s electricity system operator (NGESO) revealed this morning that it was considering activating its Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) for the first time to help reduce the risk of blackouts on Tuesday.

This follows power outages in France and a decline in renewable energy generation over the past week.

COP27 — The “Loss And Damage” Camel’s Nose Is Very Fuzzy

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Did they just create an excuse for the next 27 COPs?

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

The loss and damage camel’s nose is so fuzzy at this point there may not even be a camel. Nothing has been agreed to except that a Transitional Committee will consider what might be agreed to.

But it could be great fun to watch. The developing countries fighting over nothing. China refusing to pay. Be still my heart. Okay do not be still.

Of course the press still talks about reparations and compensation but those loaded liability terms will never appear in the official UN descriptions. This is the studied vagueness of diplomacy. Recipients can call it compensation while donors call it foreign aid.

The press also insists on saying the “details” still have to be worked out. The reality is that the essential features are all still in limbo, with possibly devastating fights looming. Here is a quick look at some likely controversies.

On…

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Major Cryovolcanic Eruption on a Comet

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One of an average 7.3 outbursts a year according to Wikipedia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/29P/Schwassmann%E2%80%93Wachmann

Spaceweather.com

Nov. 25, 2022: The British Astronomical Association (BAA) is reporting a new outburst of cryovolcanic comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann. On Nov. 22nd, the comet’s nucleus suddenly brightened by more than 4 magnitudes–a sign that a major eruption was underway. Cryomagmatic debris is now expanding in a shell shaped like Pac-Man:

Cai Stoddard-Jones took the picture on Nov. 23rd using the Faulkes Telescope North in Hawaii. At the time, the shell was already more than 100,000 km in diameter.

The Pac-Man shape of the ejecta shows that this is not a uniform global eruption. Instead, it is coming from one or more discrete sources on the comet’s surface.

This fits a leading model of the comet developed by Dr. Richard Miles of the British Astronomical Association. Miles believes that 29P is festooned with ice volcanoes. There is no lava. The “magma” is a cold mixture of liquid hydrocarbons (e.g., CH4, C2H4, C2H6 and…

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Desire for net zero referendum growing among public, poll finds

Policies based on pseudo-official UN climate theories are now so politically significant, the public want a say, according to this poll. Voters never agreed to the draconian contents of the Climate Change Act (2008). Open debate has been marginalised for years now.
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More people than ever want a referendum on the Government’s net zero policy, a survey has found.

A poll by YouGov found that 44 per cent of adults in Britain supported “holding a national referendum to decide whether or not the UK pursues a net zero carbon policy”, with 27 per cent opposed, while 29 per cent said they did not know, reports The Telegraph.

When the “don’t knows” were excluded, 62 per cent wanted a referendum. A poll on the same question a year ago found that 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

New analysis attempts to reconcile differences between satellites and climate models

Space satellite orbiting the earth

An academic attempt to gloss over some glaring discrepancies between results from theory-based climate models and observed data. The research paper says: ‘Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979’. Over forty years of being so wrong, by their own admission, takes a lot of explaining.
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Satellite observations and computer simulations are important tools for understanding past changes in Earth’s climate and for projecting future changes, says Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (via Phys.org).

However, satellite observations consistently show less warming than climate model simulations from 1979 to the present, especially in the tropical troposphere (the lowest ~15 km of Earth’s atmosphere).

This difference has raised concerns that models may overstate future temperature changes.

Is the CO2 battery for long-duration energy storage any good?

The makers say: ‘To charge the battery, we take CO2 at near atmospheric temperature and pressure and we compress it. The heat that is generated during compression is stored. When we exchange the thermal energy with the atmosphere, the CO2 gas becomes liquid.

To generate and dispatch electricity, the liquid CO2 is heated up and converted back into a gas that powers a turbine, which generates power. The CO2 gas is always contained and the entire system is sealed. We don’t use any exotic materials.’
— Looks like another net user of power.
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Italian startup Energy Dome, maker of the world’s first CO2 battery, is officially entering the US market, says Electrek.

Energy Dome’s battery uses carbon dioxide to store energy from wind and solar on the grid.

Arctic carbon conveyor belt discovered; ‘the surprise was great’

The ocean carbon cycle [credit: IAEA]

Nature’s carbon cycle works even better than was believed. The researchers say ‘it can be assumed that the global influence of this mechanism as a carbon sink is actually much greater’.
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Every year, the cross-shelf transport of carbon-rich particles from the Barents and Kara Seas could bind up to 3.6 million metric tons of CO2 in the Arctic deep sea for millennia, says Science Daily.

In this region alone, a previously unknown transport route uses the biological carbon pump and ocean currents to absorb atmospheric CO2 on the scale of Iceland’s total annual emissions, as researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute and partner institutes report in the current issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.

Compared to other oceans, the biological productivity of the central Arctic Ocean is limited, since sunlight is often in short supply — either due to the Polar Night or to sea-ice cover — and the available nutrient sources are scarce.

Consequently, microalgae (phytoplankton) in the upper water layers have access to less energy than their counterparts in other waters.

How well do state-of-the-art climate models simulate sea level?

Are the models wrongly expecting sea level rise to closely mirror the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 content, in all regions? It seems it doesn’t work like that. The study itself says: ‘As for simulation of the interannual variance, good agreement can be seen across different models, yet the models present a relatively low agreement with observations. The simulations show much weaker variance than observed’.
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According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in the last 3000 years, says Eurekalert.

This makes hundreds of coastal cities and millions of people vulnerable to a threat of higher water levels.

State-of-the-art climate models provide a crucial means to study how much and how soon sea levels will rise.

However, to what extent these models are able to represent sea level variations remains an open issue.

Lomborg & Peterson: COP27 Proposing Insane Emissions Policies

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Having got pretty much nowhere in 30 years, what do the COP-ites expect to achieve in the next 30 as populations increase along with per capita energy consumption rates?

Science Matters

Bjorn Lomborg and Jordan Peterson wrote in The Telegraph Pushing the same old climate policies at COP27 is simply insane.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

After decades of failure to curb emissions, let’s accept that capitalist investment is not the problem: it’s the solution

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” This famous quote – often misattributed to Albert Einstein – might very well become the unofficial motto of the UN Climate Change Conference in Egypt, the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties (Cop27).

Global CO₂ emissions have kept increasing since the world’s nations first committed to rein in climate change at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 – despite dozens of climate summits and the global climate agreements struck in Kyoto and Paris. This is the case, once again, in 2022, when…

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COP27 – UK lead negotiator: “I’m incredibly disappointed”

Photosynthesis: nature requires carbon dioxide

Still claiming a minor trace gas essential to nature causes ‘huge climate impacts’. Unbelievable.
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A historic deal has been struck at the UN’s COP27 summit that will see rich nations pay poorer countries for damage and economic losses caused by climate change, claims BBC News.

It ends almost 30 years of waiting by nations facing huge climate impacts.

But developed nations left dissatisfied over progress on cutting fossil fuels.

“A clear commitment to phase-out all fossil fuels? Not in this text,” said the UK’s Alok Sharma, who was president of the previous COP summit in Glasgow.

The Galapagos Islands will be a cool refuge in a warming world, say climate scientists – and it’s getting cooler

Galapagos islands [image credit: BBC]

Does the claim here that ‘almost every part of the ocean is heating up’ stand up to scrutiny? The article appears to contradict itself when stating ‘this cooling is the product of upwelling caused by the collision of a deep ocean current’ and referring to an ‘icy current’. The researchers say ‘this cooling water is fighting a losing battle with a warming atmosphere’, but deep ocean currents are by definition a long way from the surface most of the time.
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A geological coincidence placed the Galapagos Islands in the line of an icy current that provides food and shelter in a warming ocean, says Hakai Magazine.

The good news might not last for long.

Pushed by climate change, almost every part of the ocean is heating up. But off the west coast of the Galapagos Islands, there is a patch of cold, nutrient-rich water. This prosperous patch feeds phytoplankton and breathes life into the archipelago.

Earth can regulate its own temperature over millennia, new study finds

This schematic shows the relationship between the different physical and chemical processes that make up the carbonate-silicate cycle. In the upper panel, the specific processes are identified, and in the lower panel, the feedbacks associated are shown; green arrows indicate positive coupling, while yellow arrows indicate negative coupling [image credit: Gretashum @ Wikipedia]

There’s always been a carbonate–silicate cycle, which Wikipedia declares ‘is the primary control on carbon dioxide levels over long timescales’. Warmists have shoe-horned this into their atmospheric theories, as we can see from the appearance of ‘greenhouse effect’ in the graphic above. Carry on, Earth.
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The Earth’s climate has undergone some big changes, from global volcanism to planet-cooling ice ages and dramatic shifts in solar radiation, says Eurekalert.

And yet life, for the last 3.7 billion years, has kept on beating.

Now, a study by MIT researchers in Science Advances confirms that the planet harbors a “stabilizing feedback” mechanism that acts over hundreds of thousands of years to pull the climate back from the brink, keeping global temperatures within a steady, habitable range.

Just how does it accomplish this?

Experts ‘explain slowing Atlantic ocean currents’ – or do they?

A portion of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) [image credit: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution @ Wikipedia]

The article below links to another one which appears to contradict it. In ‘The threshold between natural Atlantic current system fluctuations and a climate change-driven evolution’ we’re told ‘natural variations are still dominant’ in the AMOC or “Gulf Stream System.” Then the key part:
‘According to the researchers, part of the North Atlantic is cooling—a striking contrast to the majority of ocean regions. All evaluations indicate that since the beginning of the 20th century, natural fluctuations have been the primary reason for this cooling. Nonetheless, the studies indicate that the AMOC has started to slow down in recent decades.’ If the slowdown occurred under cooling, why should future warming be likely to cause more of it?
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For decades, oceanographers have been measuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of ocean currents that greatly influence Earth’s climate, says Phys.org.

In recent years, the data show it is weakening. But what does this mean?

“If this system of currents significantly slows down, this could change weather patterns in the tropics, with a detrimental effect on crop yields,” said Spencer Jones, a visiting assistant professor in the Department of Oceanography at Texas A&M University.