A year after I wrote the original ‘Why Phi’ post explaining my discovery of the Fibonacci sequence links between solar system orbits and planetary synodic periods here at the Talkshop in 2013, my time and effort got diverted into politics. The majority of ongoing research into this important topic has been furthered by my co-blogger Stuart ‘Oldbrew’ Graham. Over the last eight years he has published many articles here using the ‘Why Phi’ tag looking at various subsystems of planetary and solar interaction periodicities, resonances, and their relationships with well known climatic periodicities such as the De Vries, Hallstatt, Hale and Jose cycles, as well as exoplanetary systems exhibiting the same Fibonacci-resonant arrangements.

Recently, Stuart contacted me with news of a major breakthrough in his investigations. In the space of a few hours spent making his calculator hot, major pieces of the giant jigsaw had all come together and brought ‘the big picture’ into focus. In fact, so much progress has been made that we’re not going to try to put it all into a single post. Instead, we’ll provide an overview here, and follow it up with further articles getting into greater detail.

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Is more of this what the future has in store, as governments enforce their plans to eradicate fuel-burning private cars from public roads in pursuit of nebulous ‘net zero’ goals? As well as wi-fi issues, if there’s a power cut affecting your home for example, an EV in need of a battery charge is rendered useless for the duration.
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How EVs and chargers say no when the internet freezes — reporting by Energy Live News.

So everyone hails the future of interconnected devices and I am all for that. Or so I thought!

But this week I have been unable to charge my EV, why?

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Credit: nationalreview.com


Hilarious – somebody must have been watching too many Hollywood fantasy movies. But why on earth is the Met Office paying for such juvenile nonsense?
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It is a bleak forecast even by the Met Office’s standards – the complete collapse of society leaving armed militias and criminal gangs to roam the land unchallenged, says the Daily Mail (via Climate Change Dispatch).

That is one of the doomsday scenarios set out in a report commissioned by the UK’s weather service to model the potential consequences of climate change.

The extraordinary report, called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and developed for the Government-funded UK Climate Resilience Programme, sets out supposedly ‘plausible futures’ as a result of global warming.

One of those scenarios described by the authors is a surge in ‘Right-wing populism’, resulting in the collapse of ‘political and governance systems.’

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Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy


Even assuming that CO2 is some sort of wonder gas as climate alarmists like to claim, the percentage of total CO2 from the use of fossil fuels is much too low to be the cause of global warming, according to this detailed research.

H/T Jeremy
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After 1750 and the onset of the industrial revolution, the anthropogenic fossil component and the non-fossil component in the total atmospheric CO2 concentration, C(t), began to increase, says Climate Change Dispatch.

Despite the lack of knowledge of these two components, claims that all or most of the increase in C(t) since 1800 has been due to the anthropogenic fossil component have continued since they began in 1960 with “Keeling Curve: Increase in CO2 from burning fossil fuel.”

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Climate lawfare strikes again in the latest attempt to cast politicians as climate managers and make all the claims of greenhouse gas theories — including ‘runaway climate change’ — in effect legally enforceable.
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The UK government is being taken to court over accusations that its climate commitments are “woefully inadequate” reports The Big Issue.

Environmental campaign group Friends of the Earth (FOE), which is bringing the lawsuit, says the government’s flagship Net Zero Strategy fails to comply with the legal requirements of the 2008 Climate Change Act.

FOE has also accused the government of failing to produce an equality impact assessment for both the Net Zero Strategy and the Heat and Buildings Strategy, which were both published last October.

FOE lawyer Katie de Kauwe said the government’s pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 is “imaginary”, with “no credible plan to deliver” the strategy.

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Solar Cycle 25 Update

Posted: January 12, 2022 by oldbrew in Cycles, data, solar system dynamics
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It’s still early in the cycle so let’s see what the next 1-2 years bring.

Spaceweather.com

Jan. 10, 2022: Solar Cycle 25 is heating up. New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outrunning the official forecast. You are here:

Actual sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in more than 5 years.

The “official forecast” comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). Using a variety of leading indicators, the Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.

Sky watchers have already noticed the change. “We are definitely seeing the effects on the ground in the Arctic!” reports Chad Blakley of the Swedish tour guide…

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Antarctica


The article says ‘The satellite measurements start in 1979’, but the USGS Landsat satellite project has been ‘imaging the Earth since 1972’. The researchers say in the abstract of their paper: ‘In stark contrast to the Arctic, there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979. However, the short and highly variable nature of observed Antarctic sea ice extent limits the ability to fully understand the historical context of these recent changes.’ The UK Met Office reported in October 2021: ‘Antarctic sea ice reached a maximum extent (to date) of 18.75 million sq km on 1st September 2021 (Figure 7), which is very close to the 1981-2010 average maximum extent of 18.70 million sq km.’
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A study led by Ohio University researchers shows that the increase of sea ice surrounding Antarctica since 1979 is a unique feature of Antarctic climate since 1905—an observation that paints a dramatic first-ever picture for weather and climate implications on the world’s southernmost continent, says Phys.org.

Dr. Ryan Fogt’s study, published today in Nature Climate Change, is the first to detail sea ice extent surrounding the entire continent though all four seasons over the last century.

Weather, especially winds and temperatures, contribute to sea ice changes. Fogt is professor of Geography in OHIO’s College of Arts and Sciences.

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Image credit: thecount.com


‘Four storage solutions to help Britain keep the lights on deep into the future’ says the paper’s sub-heading. But given the puny nature of their suggestions, that looks to be about all they could hope to do. What about actual reliable power for heating, transport, industry, commerce, hospitals, shops, services etc.?
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Soaring energy bills rooted in a global gas supply crunch have focused minds on the age-old problem: how can we better store power? says The Guardian.

Attention has turned to the closure of the Rough gas storage facility in the North Sea in 2017, which left the UK with only enough storage to meet the demand of four to five winter days.

But while gas is being phased out, Britain’s growing reliance on renewables, such as offshore wind and solar, does not solve the problem of intermittency – what happens when the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine.

The key to securing enough affordable, low-carbon energy is more storage to make the most of the renewable energy available. A storage boom has been forecast over the coming decade as governments race to meet their climate targets.
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Their four suggestions:
— ‘Gravity’ storage
— Concentrated solar power storage [see below]
— Green hydrogen
— ‘Cryogenic’ batteries

Full article here.
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If anyone finds any or all of these a convincing and/or ‘affordable’ alternative to existing fuels as a storage medium, please explain why.

UPDATE 10/1/22, 7PM (UK)
The Concentrated solar power storage project cited by the Guardian (Crescent Dunes) as an example to follow has already been wound up!

U.S. District Court Judge Jennifer A. Dorsey:
‘As a result of alleged misfeasance, nonfeasance, and malfeasance, the project failed, and the plant is now nonoperational.’
[Report dated December 09, 2021]

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Don’t we know it. The pain will appear big-time when the energy price cap gets revised massively upwards from April. Piling on green levies adds insult to injury for bill payers.

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

We are just weeks into winter and already an energy crisis is starting to burn in Britain. Part of this anguish is directed at climate policy, especially net zero.

The Brits are way ahead of the US when it comes to threatening people with direct hits, so this is no surprise. We have high natural gas prices, but they are being told they will have to pay huge sums to insulate and convert their gas heated homes to electric heat pumps. We have high gasoline prices while they are threatened with outlawing new fuel-fired cars. The stupidly green government has even suggested that personal car ownership might be ended. No wonder the Brits are running hot.

One aspect of this green shock is that supposedly conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson was elected largely because of his role in Brexit. That he was a roaring green…

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Bioluminescence [image credit: Gov’t. of South Australia]


Such events happen because ‘the microbes can suddenly light up as if a switch were thrown’. Even the smallest occurrence can be ‘100 times larger than Manhattan’.
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The ocean has always glowed, says the NY Times (via bdnews24.com).

The Greeks and Romans knew of luminous sea creatures as well as the more general phenomenon of seawater that can light up in bluish-green colours.

Charles Darwin, as he sailed near South America on a dark night aboard the HMS Beagle, encountered luminescent waves. He called it “a wonderful and most beautiful spectacle.”

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Environmentalism Has Lost Its Way

Posted: January 5, 2022 by oldbrew in Batteries, Critique, Energy, opinion
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Funny how all the intensive mining for battery, solar panel and wind turbine components, and all the resulting toxic and other waste, gets billed as clean energy by climate obsessives.

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

Driven by climate madness, the environmental movement has become the greatest advocate of destructive industrial development in history.

As Kant said: “To will the end is to will the means”. In this case the means to the phantom end of climate control have led environmentalists to abandon all of their principles. Solar and wind require environmental destruction on an unprecedented scale. Electrification requires the use of toxic chemicals on a similar scale. The hazardous waste stream is enormous.

Solar is the worst because the destruction of forests and open land is complete. Perhaps something lives under these vast solar slabs but not much and certainly nothing like what they destroy and displace.

As I pointed out in my recent article on Virginia’s ill-named Clean Economy Act, we are talking about hundreds of square miles of solar devastation today, for just one state. See my https://www.cfact.org/2021/12/27/paving-virginia-with-solar-slabs-is-a-bad-law/

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Ned Nikolov, Ph.D.
Dec 30, 2021

There has been a long-standing belief in Paleoclimatology that orbital variations (a.k.a. Milankovitch cycles) have been responsible for the initiation and/or duration of glacial cycles (Ice Ages) over the past 800 Ky. Milankovitch cycles are often referred to as a pacemaker of the Ice Ages. This myth dates back to 1970s, when sediment cores revealed a weak correlation in the frequency domain between Earth’s 41-ky obliquity (axial-tilt) cycle and the periodicity of Ice Ages during the early Pleistocene (Quaternary). However, in the late Pleistocene, the frequency of glacial cycles better match the Earth’s 100-ky eccentricity cycle, which further fueled the confusion. Yet, no one has been able to demonstrate a meaningful relationship between glacial cycles and any of the Earth’s 3 orbital parameters obliquity, eccentricity and precession or combination thereof on a linear time scale. A physical causation requires a strong correlation between parameters in the time domain, not the frequency domain!

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Overcharged and overtaxed. UK energy customers are getting clobbered from all directions: the markets, the so-called climate levies, and taxes. The government is in disarray as its renewables-based policies force the pace of cost increases.
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Energy bills have soared as global wholesale prices have risen rapidly – but some Tory MPs and peers say they have increased more in the UK because of taxes the government has the power to remove.

Twenty Conservative politicians have urged Boris Johnson to scrap energy taxes as bills continue to rocket, reports Sky News.

The MPs and peers have written a letter in the Sunday Telegraph to ask the prime minister and Chancellor Rishi Sunak to help consumers facing “fuel poverty”.

Energy prices in the UK are being forced up faster than any other comparable country due to “taxation and environmental levies”, they wrote.

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Demand for energy on a global scale is set to increase substantially in the coming years, as this article points out. So-called activists need to activate their brains a bit more. Unless they hope to suppress demand permanently in some ultra-draconian manner, the current system has to continue unless or until something better takes its place, which won’t be any time soon as demand now exceeds 100 million barrels per day.
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Europe may be in the grips of an energy shortage and forced to reopen retired coal plants to cope but climate activists insist that it is time to part company with fossil fuels, the sooner, the better says OilPrice.com.

According to them, this is a simple solution to the world’s emission problems. “It is overflowing with too much carbon. The world can’t absorb any more,” said Tom Goldtooth, an activist and the executive director of the North American Indigenous Environmental Network on the sidelines of COP26, as quoted by CNBC. “The simple solution, that we are still demanding, is the world has to turn the valve off.”

Yet the solution of turning off the valve appears to not be as simple as it may sound. Goldtooth is neither the first nor the last activist to call for an immediate end to oil and gas production.

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This won’t exactly be music to the ears of the climate alarmist tendency, which prefers to claim that people somehow dictate the course of climate variations.
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The Sun’s energy affects our climate but its influence is often ignored as changes in its intensity are very small. Its effect might be subtle but over decadal periods it adds up to being significant as a series of recent papers show, says Net Zero Watch.

Scientists from the University of California, Irvine, the National Taiwan Normal University, and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, find that the 11-year solar cycle has a significant correlation with sea surface temperature variations in the North-eastern Pacific.

They believe that the Sun’s influence is first seen and then amplified in the lower stratosphere, but it then alters the circulation in the troposphere which then affects the temperature of the ocean.

They note that the changes have a structure similar to that of the Pacific meridional mode – an interaction between trade winds and ocean evaporation which is an important trigger of the central Pacific (CP) type of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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The COP-ites continually ignore the fact that most so-called greenhouse gas is water vapour, instead attributing ludicrous climate powers to the trace gas carbon dioxide which is essential to plants, vegetation, trees etc.

PA Pundits - International

By Dr. Jay Lehr and Robert Lyman~

Over the next three weeks we will convince you of the absurdity of the meetings to discuss destroying the world’s economy to address allegedly human-caused climate change fraud. To begin, it remains important for our readers to understand the reality behind the pronouncements from the media for the months before and after these pompous, self- important congregations of the deluded.

The 26th Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 26) concluded in Glasgow, Scotland on November 12 2021. The conclusion was accompanied by a virtual avalanche of announcements and claims by the United Nations, various other international organizations and environmentalist groups about how much progress” had been made. It is important to have a more accurate assessment of exactly what was agreed by whom and what was merely part of an extremely elaborate political and…

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Fracking: note the deep shaft


The chances of the UK government listening to anybody other than climate obsessives on energy matters are about zero. Most of the opposition parties are even more addicted to the notion of climate being determined by the level of trace gases in the atmosphere, with wildly unrealistic policies to match.
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London, 29 December – Net Zero Watch has called on Boris Johnson to declare an energy emergency and introduce radical policy reforms in order to prevent the energy cost crisis turning into an economic and social disaster.

The call comes as fears grow over a devastating energy cost and energy security crisis, with spiralling prices hitting households and businesses hard, and warnings that energy bills could double or even treble next year.

It is reported that Boris Johnson is considering to hand out £20 billion of taxpayers’ money to energy suppliers who are threatening to double or treble energy costs.

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Over at WUWT, Willis has been up to his usual trick of mangling data in a vain attempt to discredit scientists who find strong links between the Sun’s variation and Earth’s weather and climatic patterns. This time it’s Le Mouel et al who get the treatment in his ‘analysis’ of their 2010 paper “Solar forcing of the semi‐annual variation of length‐of‐day

As usual, Willis gets things upside down and then sets up a straw-man argument. He asks: “So … is there a correlation between sunspots and zonal wind speeds?” The answer to which is no, and the paper’s authors never claimed there was. However, as Fig 1 of Le Mouel et al’s paper shows, there is a strong anti-correlation between solar variation and the semi-annual variation of Length of Day (LOD) which is itself well correlated with changes in zonal wind speeds. For obvious reasons, Willis doesn’t show his readers Fig 1, reproduced here for your academic study.

Figure 1. Long‐term variations in the amplitude a of the semiannual oscillation in lod (in blue). A 4‐yr centered sliding
window is used. (a) Comparison of the semiannual amplitude of lod with the sunspot number WN (red); WN is both
reversed in sign and offset by one year
(see text). (b) Comparison of the detrended semiannual amplitude of lod (blue) with
the sunspot number WN (red); WN is reversed in sign and offset by one year. (c) Comparison of the semiannual amplitude
of lod (blue) with galactic cosmic ray flux GCR (red); GCR is neither reversed in sign nor offset (see text).
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Having put the climate millstone round its neck, the UK government tries to avoid totally sabotaging a productive industry, partly by pointing to its net importer status.
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The UK government says new oil and gas licensing can fit with its climate commitments. Campaigners, citing the International Energy Agency, disagree says Climate Home News.

The UK government has launched a consultation on “climate compatibility” tests for new rounds of North Sea oil and gas drilling licences, ignoring calls to keep fossil fuels in the ground.

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Domestic gas central heating boiler


Another setback for climate obsessives – their pet heating methods for buildings can be too expensive and impractical even for governments. Going green – as they imagine – means going broke?
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Report reveals that her policy of replacing gas boilers at St Andrew’s House with eco-friendly ones would not provide value for money, says the Telegraph.

Nicola Sturgeon’s demand that Scotland’s homes and offices replace their gas heating systems by 2030 is so difficult to implement in her government’s headquarters that she has been advised to consider moving out and selling it.

The Telegraph has obtained an expert assessment, commissioned by the Scottish Government, of bringing St Andrew’s House in Edinburgh up to the carbon emissions standard required of all buildings by the end of the decade.

The assessment, obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, warned ministers that ripping out their headquarters’ gas heating and replacing it with a low emissions system would cost nearly £5.8 million of taxpayers’ money.
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The boilers at St Andrew’s House were last replaced in 2013 and they are expected to last until 2033.

Full article here.

Canadian rail route


A short break from media global warming propaganda maybe. Environment Canada says temps could drop to -55 C in some places, with an Arctic ridge of high pressure playing its part. 🥶❄️
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Welcome to winter, folks! – says Narcity.

It looks like the weather in Canada is about to get seriously brutal, as Environment Canada has issued multiple “extreme cold warnings” across parts of the country.

On Monday, December 27, the government agency updated its public weather alerts for all over Canada.

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