Winter deaths in Scotland at highest level in 18 years

Scottish winter forecast [credit: BBC]

Whatever the causes may be, an excess of mild weather and/or low heating bills can safely be ruled out.

The number of people who died in Scotland last winter hit a 18-year high, new statistics have revealed.

There were 23,137 deaths between December 2017 and March 2018, according to the National Records of Scotland – the highest figure since 1999/2000, reports BBC News.

It also revealed that the seasonal increase in mortality – the number of “additional” deaths in winter – was significantly higher than in 2016/17.

The main underlying causes of the deaths were influenza and pneumonia.

Hurricanes Are Not Caused By “Climate Change.” Just Nature At Work.

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Trying to impose pre-conceived dogmatic ideas about the climate onto random weather events is never going to work.

American Elephants

President Trump was asked by “60 Minutes” Leslie Stahl about Hurricane Florence: He said:

“I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this: I don’t want to give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t want to lose millions and millions of jobs.” … “I’m not denying climate change,” he said in the interview. “But it could very well go back. You know, we’re talking about over a … millions of years.”

“They say that we had hurricanes that were far worse than what we just had with Michael,” said Trump, who identified “they” as “people” after being pressed by “60 Minutes” correspondent Leslie Stahl. She asked, “What about the scientists who say it’s worse than ever?” the president replied, “You’d have to show me the scientists because they have a very big political agenda.

Well, you can imagine the outcry, Charles Schumer, distinguished Minority Leader of the United…

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Fracking row continues as UK shale gas drilling recommences

Credit: mygridgb.co.uk

Opponents seem to imagine there’s a magic button to press for extra energy when it’s dark and not windy, rather than use the reliable power of fuel-burning. But in the real world the UK already uses vast amounts of gas for heating, cooking, electricity generation, industrial processes and more.

Exploratory shale gas drilling will begin today in the UK for the first time in seven years, reports PEI.

However, already this morning protesters have tried to prevent shale gas firm Cuadrilla from recommencing ‘fracking’ at a site in Lancashire, England.

Richard Lindzen: ‘Warming of any significance ceased 20 years ago’

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

H/T The GWPF

This will go down like a lead balloon with the usual climate-obsessed suspects and their followers. Full lecture here.

Professor Lindzen said the IPCC report this week had reduced the alleged tipping point from 2C to 1.5C because there had been no significant warming for 20 years, reports the Daily Mail.

‘Warming of any significance ceased about 20 years ago, and 2C warming was looking increasingly unlikely.’

Professor Richard Lindzen slammed conventional thinking on global warming as ‘nonsense’ in a lecture for skeptical think tank Global Warming Policy Foundation.

Visualization of Pacific ocean temperatures shows El Niño brewing

Ocean currents
[image credit: SPL/BBC]

The latest NOAA synopsis says: ‘Overall, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral, but with recent trends indicative of a developing El Niño.’ Sounds like a ‘definite maybe’ there, with models now forecasting a relatively weak El Niño.

Warming waters in the equatorial Pacific give increasing confidence that El Niño will be here soon, says Discover magazine.

It’s still not here yet, but El Niño sure looks like it’s coming.

In its latest forecast, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 to 75 percent chance that El Niño will form “in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.”

Fracking campaigner FAILS in High Court battle

Another waste of time and money for all concerned. Time for the real work to begin.

An environmental campaigner has failed in his High Court action to temporarily block energy firm Cuadrilla from fracking in Lancashire, reports TLE.

Cuadrilla chief executive Francis Egan had described the challenge as “a last gasp attempt at trying to frustrate the process.”

BP CEO: Sanctions ‘would virtually shut down the energy systems of Europe’

From the “DON’T POKE THE BEAR WITH A STICK!” Dept:

Sanctions against Russia’s key energy companies would inevitably lead to a collapse of the European energy sector, BP CEO Bob Dudley has warned, according to Sputnik news agency.

“I do not think that would happen. If sanctions were put on Rosneft or Gazprom or LUKoil like what happened with Rusal, you would virtually shut down the energy systems of Europe, it is a bit of extreme thing to happen. We invest in Russia carefully, not just in Rosneft,” Dudley told the Oil & Money conference in London.

Russia is a key supplier of natural gas to Europe. State-run Gazprom, the world’s largest gas producer, caters for 40 percent of European energy needs. For geographical reasons, Russian supplies are by far the cheapest and safest for the continent.

Met-Office invents infallible climate prediction method

The Met-Office has issued a ‘decadal’ climate forecast which runs from 2018 to 2023. Maybe it should be called a ‘semi-decadal forecast’ instead, but we’ll let it pass, as that’s not the most amusing aspect of it by a long chalk.

For starters, there’s the baseline period chosen. 1850-1900. They’ve gone for this so they can scare us with the upper end of the blue prediction envelope exceeding the Dangerous! Global! Warming! politically chosen figure of 1.5C above “pre-industrial”.

Here’s the global measuring station coverage between 1891 and 1920. There was a lot less in 1850.

I thought it would be fun to see how the Met-O forecast is doing after 10 months, so I plotted the latest annually averaged HadCRUt 4 global data using Wood For Trees in red and overlaid it on the Met-O prediction plot:

Why the current hurricane rating system needs to be scrapped

Image credit: sanibelrealestateguide.com

A rating system that may lead people to misunderstand the likely impact of an approaching storm is obviously not satisfactory. So is there a better approach?

For decades, hurricanes have been rated on a scale of 1 to 5 based solely on a storm’s wind speeds.

But as recent hurricanes show, a tropical cyclone’s winds often tell us little about its real threats — coastal storm surge and precipitation-driven flooding, say Yale researchers.

Modern meteorological data collection gives us an unprecedented view into the real-time growth, track, and death of tropical cyclones.

IPCC SR15 Report lacks cost/benefit analysis of ‘Goldilocks thinking’

The UN climate report known as SR15 calls for high carbon taxes from $135 to $5,500/ton while a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Bjorn Lomborg of Oct. 9, 2018 says the costs of proposed CO2 cuts are not worth it, leading the Friends of Science Society to slam the UN report as Goldilocks thinking without any rational cost-benefit analysis or practical plan.

Friends of Science says the WSJ paragraph in which Lomborg describes the economic impact on Europe of cutting emissions 80% by 2050 should be front page news in every newspaper in Europe and North America. Lomborg notes that, with a well designed and coordinated climate policy (i.e. the opposite of what European and North American governments have now), the annual costs will reach U.S. $3.3 trillion, “more than twice what EU governments spend today on health, education, recreation, housing, environment, police and defense combined”.

“The policy will make the EU 24% poorer in 2050.”

Australia’s top scientist calls for hydrogen revolution to replace fossil fuels

An obvious problem with hydrogen is the likely high cost of production. Another one is the vast amounts of renewables needed to make the plan work, or if coal or gas is used, the high cost and doubtful viability of large-scale carbon capture.

Meantime, Environment Minister Melissa Price has rejected the findings of a major climate report, despite not having read it, says the Sydney Morning Herald.

The federal government’s top scientist Alan Finkel says Australia could slash global carbon emissions and create a multi-billion dollar export industry by developing hydrogen as an everyday energy source to replace fossil fuels used in vehicles, homes and industry.

What Does the New IPCC Report Say About Trends in Extreme Events?

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The IPCC seems to be long on speculation and short on evidence.

Roger Pielke Jr.

1⃣A short thread on what the new @IPCC_CH report says about trends in extreme events, specifically: heat waves, drought, floods, tropical cyclones, tornadoes. Let's go . . .

— Roger Pielke Jr. (@RogerPielkeJr) October 8, 2018

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A conversation with Brandon Gates on the causes of the ‘greenhouse’ effect

 

Rog Tallbloke‏ @RogTallbloke Oct 7

Hi Brandon, What is the best estimate of the ratio of radiation to space taking place from CO2 relative to H2O?

Brandon R. Gates‏ @brandonrgates Oct 7

Dunno Rog. MODTRAN could probably get you in the ballpark. This is CO2-only from 70 km looking down, more what I would expect an actual Nimbus retrieval to look like. http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/ 

Rog Tallbloke‏ @RogTallbloke 24h24 hours ago

Although CO2 absorbs thermal radiation from the Earth, it emits more. Carbon dioxide is in thermal deficit in terms of radiative balance. Nitrogen and oxygen constantly feed CO2 with heat so that it maintains a temperature higher than its radiative equilibrium. CO2 is a coolant.

Most UK newspapers ignore IPCC report on their front pages

Clearly the main reason for not putting a news item on the front page is that it won’t help to sell the newspaper. UK weather variability is standard.

Today’s frontpages of most UK newspapers ignore the new IPCC report, reflecting the declining concern of most Brits about the climate agenda – despite the habitual alarm, says The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).  

UK Survey: Brits Are Chilled About Global Warming

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Forum, 11 July 2018

IEA: Petrochemicals set to be the largest driver of world oil demand

Oil extraction [image credit: ewg.org]

A recent energy conference was told: “The world will attain the 100 million barrels a day mark of [oil] consumption later this year, much sooner than we all earlier projected.” This report notes that petrochemicals ‘are required to manufacture many parts of the modern energy system, including solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, thermal insulation and electric vehicles’.

Petrochemicals are set to account for more than a third of the growth in world oil demand to 2030, and nearly half the growth to 2050, adding nearly 7 million barrels of oil a day by then, reports Green Car Congress.

They are also poised to consume an additional 56 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas by 2030, and 83 bcm by 2050.

Latest insights into Saturn’s weird magnetic field only make things weirder

Saturn from the Cassini orbiter [image credit: NASA]

Weird compared to some theories, perhaps – but observations can trump theories, of course. Is it too weird to ask if the planet’s rings, extending outwards from the equator, and its axis-aligned magnetic field could be related phenomena?

Some of the last data from the Cassini mission reveals more structure in Saturn’s magnetic field, but still no answer as to how it formed, says Phys.org.

NASA’s Cassini mission—with Imperial kit on board—took a series of daring dives between the planet and its inmost ring in September 2017 before burning up in the planet’s atmosphere.

Saudis push back as IPCC talks head into overtime

Another climate meeting, another heavyweight clash of opinions as committing national economic self-harm struggles to catch on. Ho-hum.

International talks on how to present the science around 1.5C of global warming just ran into overtime in Incheon, South Korea, reports Climate Weekly.

National delegates are expected to argue well into Saturday about the feasibility of holding temperature rise to 1.5C – the stretch goal of the Paris Agreement – and its implications for sustainable development.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

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The Met Office explains the compression-warming of the stratosphere and how it can bring cold snaps to the UK.

Official blog of the Met Office news team

You may have heard talk of the UK possibly seeing some colder weather next week and that ‘things going on’ in the upper atmosphere may be playing a part.

The ‘thing’ happening in the atmosphere is known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). When it does happen, it attracts a lot of interest in the UK because it is sometimes linked to the onset of cold weather in winter.

Here we shed a little bit more light on the phenomenon.

What is an SSW?

The term SSW refers to what we observe – rapid warming (up to about 50 ­°C in just a couple of days) in the stratosphere, between 10 km and 50 km up.

You may have heard of the jet stream which helps to steer Atlantic weather systems towards the UK. Well there are other jet streams high up in our atmosphere in both the northern and southern…

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EU lawmakers want to cut car emissions by 40 percent by 2030

The war on the harmless trace gas carbon dioxide is in full swing at the EU. The diesel scandal, which was about nitrogen oxides, seems strangely to have been used as an excuse to press for a more punishing policy towards CO2. But they appear to ignore the fact that even if electric car sales go up, this mainly transfers the supposed problem to fuel-burning power stations.

The European Parliament wants to cut CO2 emissions from new cars and vans by 40 percent by 2030 and will try to convince the European Union’s 28 nations to back the idea despite objections from the powerful car industry, reports Phys.org.

The proposed cut agreed on by the legislators Wednesday was a compromise between environmentalists who wanted tougher commitments and those who wanted to avoid too much damage to the auto industry.

The EU nations will discuss the measures further this month. Car producers in the EU are warning that tough cuts would cost manufacturing jobs.

A conversation with Ken Rice on the causes of the ‘Greenhouse effect’

Rog Tallbloke‏ @RogTallbloke 3h3 hours ago

Yes, adiabatic compression heating is an ongoing process, due to the convection cycle. I’ve tried to illustrate it by modifying NASA’s energy budget diagram. Calcs on right show PV/nR=T gives correct values regardless of radiative transfer.

Ken Rice‏ @theresphysics 3h3 hours ago

This has probably been explained before, but if adiabatic heating is to be an ongoing process then that would suggest the atmosphere is contracting. Since it clearly isn’t, this can’t be the source of the enhanced surface temperature.

Rog Tallbloke‏ @RogTallbloke 3h3 hours ago

Ken. Air convecting upwards every day displaces cold high altitude air downwards through the pressure gradient which compresses and heats it. If it didn’t, that air would be colder at the surface, and would allow much more rapid conduction of heat from surface to the air. Agree?

Ken Rice‏ @theresphysics 2h2 hours ago

Roger, if you want to enhance the temperature on the surface via compression then the atmosphere would need to continually contract.