A lovely summer, lots of blue sky, warm? Fish would fly first.

Tim writes,

The famous flying carp. (photo, the author)

Summer this year came late. In at least the south the weather was unusually good, with blue skies, fairly warm, not a great deal in the way of rain.

I was expecting screeching from the Met Office about the warmest August evva. They popped up a blog article mid-month then nothing.

Scientists begin to unravel summer jet stream mystery

Forecaster highlights the jetstream over the UK [image credit: BBC]

Why jetstream shifts might be linked to Arctic ice (among other factors) is not made clear, so we’re left wondering.

Scientists have discovered the cause of the recent run of miserable wet summers as they begin to unravel the mysteries of the Atlantic jet stream, reports Phys.org.

Researchers from the University of Sheffield and The Met Office have identified a number of possible factors that may influence the Atlantic jet stream and therefore help to predict summer climate from one year to the next.

New Dawn Of Truth: London Climate Change Conference 2016

It’s finally happening. Thanks to Herculean efforts by Niklas Morner, we are presenting a two-day conference in central London on the 8-9th September. Speakers are coming from all over the world to present their work, and it is not to be missed!

Take the 8-9th September off work and join us for this historic event. The first UK climate conference in decades which will counter the scaremongering of the IPCC with a cool, rational approach to the study of climate change, presenting alternative explanations, new data, theory and commentary. Topics include solar-planetary theory, causes of ENSO, sea ice extent, sea level, ozone depletion, volcanos, regional forecasting, journal gatekeeping and many more.

The list of contributors is long, we are packing a huge number of presentations into this two day event. Speakers include Niklas Morner, myself, Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller,  Nicola Scafetta, Per Strandberg, Jan-Erik Solheim, and thats before lunch on day one! Piers Corbyn will be there! So will  Christopher Monckton! See the full programme and the extended abstracts in this 35 Megabyte document for full details. There are also some travel and booking details on the geoethic.com website. An updated version is available on reseachgate

Hourly data store

Tim writes,

Figure 1, hourly data collected from Met Office Datapoint over two years for Heathrow, one of many stations with data.

I’ve succeeded in collecting a massive data store from Met Office Datapoint, hourly data for many UK stations, known errors in the supplied data excepted. Some data is missing, such as the week when I went into hospital and in error had powered off the automatic data collection computer. The poor air, blue tinged when I realised.

I could upload the whole lot as CSV files inside an archive but the sheer size of this is a disincentive unless there is genuine demand. 40 or so MB, 230 MB uncompressed.

https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/series-2016-07-27.zip 43MB (Megabytes)

There are also daily plots as PDF, a mountain of data. What do people want if anything?

Brize Norton, 33.5C

Quickie Post by Tim

This must come as a disappointment to the Met Office, desperate for globules of warning. BBC say 34C

UK extremes
Parameter Location Value
Highest maximum temperature Brize Norton 33.5 °C
Lowest maximum temperature Lerwick 16.3 °C
Lowest minimum temperature Resallach 8.3 °C
Highest rainfall Fair Isle 4.4 mm
Sunniest Wattisham 15.2 hours

Issued at: 0002 on Wed 20 Jul 2016

In the surface stations list, yep

https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/09/10/wmo03649-brize-norton/

Weather stats, monthlies, updates

Tim writes: –

Another interlude gives me space to update the novel statistics computed from published data. This is not comparable with the official methods, it’s better. Takes into account normal variation during a year; bends the data to near gaussian.

May was not particularly interesting, June was the 2nd dimmest for S and SE England since these records commenced 1929.

Walter Starck: The Reef’s Self-Serving Saviours

From Quadrant online, another great essay by Walter Starck on the Great Barrier Reef and the alarm industry shills conniving to defraud the public with scare stories about it.

Virtually every year for the past half-century news reports have bannered dire proclamations by “reef experts” on imminent “threats” to the Great Barrier Reef. This has sustained an ongoing, ever-growing charade of “research” and “management” aimed at saving the reef from a litany of hypothetical threats conjured up by a salvation industry which now costs taxpayers over $100 million annually. Although none of these “threats” have ever proven to be anything other than hypothetical possibilities or  temporary fluctuations of nature, the doomsters never cease to rummage through their litany of concerns to find something they can present as urgent in order to keep the funding flowing.

R.J. Salvador: Bi-monthly LOD model update

Two Months ago, solar system dynamics researcher  R.J. Salvador gave us an update on the performance of his length of day (LOD) model. Based on our planetary theory, the model has performed well so far, showing aberrations from the real world data within two standard deviations on a couple of occasions, but mainly tracking the model projection very closely indeed. Here’s the latest plot.

Rick says:

The model is within range. Even in the correlation period there are these wobbles where the actual deviates from the model by 2 std dev. We may have to wait until the seasons change again to know if the deviation widens or closes. I will update it again in two months.

I wish all the best for Tim.

Good luck with your BREXIT campaign. 

It’s going to be fascinating watching further updates as they arrive for signs of planetary periodicity in the aberrations and/or trying to correlate them with major weather patterns which could be responsible.

Dying from heat and cold: which extreme is the more deadly?

Hot or cold[Image credit: BBC]

Climate catastrophists should be careful what they wish for, according to this review featured by CO2 Science.

In a review of the human health effects of temperature, Seltenrich (2015) writes that “while isolated heat waves pose a major health risk and grab headlines when they occur, recent research has uncovered a more complex and perhaps unexpected relationship between temperature and public health,” which is, as he continues, that “on the whole, far more deaths occur in cold weather than in hot.”

China: 33 missing after landslide buries hydroelectric power facility

Image credit: itv.com

H/T Power Engineering International

Rescue workers in southern China are attempting to rescue 33 people missing after a landslide buried a hydropower project.

8 construction workers have been pulled out alive after the facility was engulfed following days of heavy rain, officials and state-run media reported.

NASA Study Solves Two Mysteries About Wobbling Earth

Using satellite data on how water moves around Earth, NASA scientists have solved two mysteries about wobbles in the planet’s rotation — one new and one more than a century old. The research may help improve our knowledge of past and future climate.

Although a desktop globe always spins smoothly around the axis running through its north and south poles, a real planet wobbles. Earth’s spin axis drifts slowly around the poles; the farthest away it has wobbled since observations began is 37 feet (12 meters). These wobbles don’t affect our daily life, but they must be taken into account to get accurate results from GPS, Earth-observing satellites and observatories on the ground.

In a paper published today in Science Advances, Surendra Adhikari and Erik Ivins of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, researched how the movement of water around the world contributes to Earth’s rotational wobbles. Earlier studies have pinpointed many connections between processes on Earth’s surface or interior and our planet’s wandering ways. For example, Earth’s mantle is still readjusting to the loss of ice on North America after the last ice age, and the reduced mass beneath that continent pulls the spin axis toward Canada at the rate of a few inches each year. But some motions are still puzzling.

Winter rainfall 2015/16, Hadley series

Tim writes,

Figure 1, Met Office Hadley monthly rainfall series for England and Wales start date 1766. Winter 2015/16 was wet but ordinary. (data processing by the author, see previous articles)
Plots for all data series as PDF (2MB).

Some other parts / regions of the country do show an extreme but this adds weight to the flicker noise (or 1/f) hypothosis for weather noise.

Ancient floodstones sought to help predict climate change

Water gauge on the Danube [image credit: EuroTravelogue.com]

A slight problem in England could be that parts of the south e.g. London have been slowly sinking into the clay for centuries, so readings might not tell the whole story.

When it comes to predicting climate change, most scientists use state-of-the-art supercomputers to model future trends. But researchers at the University of Sheffield are hoping to gather information that is a little closer to home. 

Scientists are hunting for ancient floodstones which record the high level of water going back hundreds of years.

Paul Vaughan: NOAA Corruption of SST records

NOAA’s vandalism of ERSSTv3b2 (good) to ERSSTv4 (corrupted) hinges on a single point.

Visual catalog of the beautiful natural patterns being systematically defaced:

— —

1. Secular

— —

Mammoth blizzard shuts New York City

NYC [credit: Sky News]

Difficult times in some north-eastern US states as nature takes centre stage. White-out at the White House too, as the BBC reports.

All non-essential travel has been banned in New York, transport suspended and bridges shut as the city is hit by one of its worst snowstorms. Parts of the eastern United States have received 71cm (28in) of snowfall in a huge blizzard that is sweeping across the region.

Travel restrictions in New York came into place at 14:30 (19:30 GMT). Mayor Bill de Blasio said up to 25in snow may fall, making it one of the five worst winter storms in the city. Heavy snow began falling on Friday across more than 20 states, affecting some 85 million people.

We stole the water, December 2015 a very exceptionally DRY month

Folks pop in, Michele dropped this one

Red here means dry, Italy according to this provisional data was the dryest since year 1800.

http://www.isac.cnr.it/~climstor/climate/latest_month_PCP.html

More general plots and information on this link

Would I be overstating to suggest there is a connection between this and northern England sploshing?

A very exceptional December

I don’t do fairy, December was exceptional, call it.
This article was prepared early January then was delayed by circumstances.

An automated system here on demand recomputes Met Office areal data in a unique way[1] with the intent of producing a statistical measure of variation. Data is approximately normalised. Does the same for the Hadley Centre data series.

The results tend to contradict Met Office assertions by their ordinary staff. Shortly before the month end an actual Met Office expert gave a different opinion (misquoted elsewhere afterwards by the BBC), essentially it is weather. Claiming El Nino is global after Scaife in a different BBC interview merely stated some kind of an effect in Europe can be unearthed. (paraphrasing what he meant)

The BBC were in full flood about the sloshing session in a few parts of the UK. The part I saw, part of a much longer section showed some figures, without a full explanation but then Scaife appeared. What he said is I think interesting.

Scaife did not claim unprecedented, merely not like this for a very long time, 100 years.

We are on course for the warmest December in more than 100 years of records and the wettest December for many parts of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and northwest England in more than 100 years…

[see 2] video extract of Scaife

Last 2 years of Met Office areal series from 1910 (or 1929 sun) for 15 UK regional mixes, rain, sun, Tmin, Tmean, Tmax. Processed to z-score by the author, annual cycle removed. PDF of above for zoom/pan here

Weather was warm everywhere. Was not wet in the south.

The primary work produces full time series, five PDF containing full time of all above together with various metrics.

• precipitation
• sunshine (from 1929)
• Tmax
• Tmean
• Tmin

Modellers of El Niño events get cloud data surprise

Send in the clouds [credit:NASA]

Adding cloud data to climate models must be long overdue if it’s considered to be a new technique. Scientists were surprised to find that doing so accounted for over half the strength of El Niños, as Phys.org reports:

A small team of researchers from the U.S., Australia and Germany has found evidence that suggests cloud formation may have a much bigger impact on weather patterns associated with El Niño events than has been thought.

In their paper published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the team describes they differences they found when they input cloud data into computer models that simulated weather patterns associated with El Niño events and why they now believe that all such models should include such data going forward.

Global cooling ahead: My prediction for 2016 and beyond

New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.

Fig 1. Global temperature series from the two satellite datasets. The big El nino events in 1998 and 2010 were both followed by downturns. The 2015 El Nino will also be followed by a downturn in temperature.

Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that  we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.

Met Office station data release

I am making available all the data collected from Met Office Datapoint for UK land stations.

Example of data processed to show deviations.

This is hourly from 22nd July 2014 through 28th 31st Dec 2015, missing, etc. excepted. The data has been processed into time series with missing data filled with not available marks and also the verbatim datapoint XML as received.

A Talkshop page has been added, can get to it via top menu Portal, direct link here.

This ought to be a gold mine for those able to work on data. Millions of datapoints. The Met Office do not archive this immediate data for public access so whilst there are defects, you’ll have trouble finding this elsewhere.