Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

sun-earth-moon

Using satellite data on how water moves around Earth, NASA scientists have solved two mysteries about wobbles in the planet’s rotation — one new and one more than a century old. The research may help improve our knowledge of past and future climate.

Although a desktop globe always spins smoothly around the axis running through its north and south poles, a real planet wobbles. Earth’s spin axis drifts slowly around the poles; the farthest away it has wobbled since observations began is 37 feet (12 meters). These wobbles don’t affect our daily life, but they must be taken into account to get accurate results from GPS, Earth-observing satellites and observatories on the ground.

In a paper published today in Science Advances, Surendra Adhikari and Erik Ivins of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, researched how the movement of water around the world contributes to Earth’s rotational wobbles. Earlier studies have pinpointed many connections between processes on Earth’s surface or interior and our planet’s wandering ways. For example, Earth’s mantle is still readjusting to the loss of ice on North America after the last ice age, and the reduced mass beneath that continent pulls the spin axis toward Canada at the rate of a few inches each year. But some motions are still puzzling.

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Tim writes,

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Figure 1, Met Office Hadley monthly rainfall series for England and Wales start date 1766. Winter 2015/16 was wet but ordinary. (data processing by the author, see previous articles)
Plots for all data series as PDF (2MB).

Some other parts / regions of the country do show an extreme but this adds weight to the flicker noise (or 1/f) hypothosis for weather noise.

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Water gauge on the Danube [image credit: EuroTravelogue.com]

Water gauge on the Danube [image credit: EuroTravelogue.com]

A slight problem in England could be that parts of the south e.g. London have been slowly sinking into the clay for centuries, so readings might not tell the whole story.

When it comes to predicting climate change, most scientists use state-of-the-art supercomputers to model future trends. But researchers at the University of Sheffield are hoping to gather information that is a little closer to home. 

Scientists are hunting for ancient floodstones which record the high level of water going back hundreds of years.

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NOAA’s vandalism of ERSSTv3b2 (good) to ERSSTv4 (corrupted) hinges on a single point.

Visual catalog of the beautiful natural patterns being systematically defaced:

— —

1. Secular

— —

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 Mammoth blizzard shuts New York City

Posted: January 23, 2016 by oldbrew in News, weather

NYC [credit: Sky News]

NYC [credit: Sky News]


Difficult times in some north-eastern US states as nature takes centre stage. White-out at the White House too, as the BBC reports.

All non-essential travel has been banned in New York, transport suspended and bridges shut as the city is hit by one of its worst snowstorms. Parts of the eastern United States have received 71cm (28in) of snowfall in a huge blizzard that is sweeping across the region.

Travel restrictions in New York came into place at 14:30 (19:30 GMT). Mayor Bill de Blasio said up to 25in snow may fall, making it one of the five worst winter storms in the city. Heavy snow began falling on Friday across more than 20 states, affecting some 85 million people.

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Folks pop in, Michele dropped this one

Red here means dry, Italy according to this provisional data was the dryest since year 1800.

Image

http://www.isac.cnr.it/~climstor/climate/latest_month_PCP.html

More general plots and information on this link

Would I be overstating to suggest there is a connection between this and northern England sploshing?

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A very exceptional December

Posted: January 22, 2016 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

I don’t do fairy, December was exceptional, call it.
This article was prepared early January then was delayed by circumstances.

An automated system here on demand recomputes Met Office areal data in a unique way[1] with the intent of producing a statistical measure of variation. Data is approximately normalised. Does the same for the Hadley Centre data series.

The results tend to contradict Met Office assertions by their ordinary staff. Shortly before the month end an actual Met Office expert gave a different opinion (misquoted elsewhere afterwards by the BBC), essentially it is weather. Claiming El Nino is global after Scaife in a different BBC interview merely stated some kind of an effect in Europe can be unearthed. (paraphrasing what he meant)

The BBC were in full flood about the sloshing session in a few parts of the UK. The part I saw, part of a much longer section showed some figures, without a full explanation but then Scaife appeared. What he said is I think interesting.Image

Scaife did not claim unprecedented, merely not like this for a very long time, 100 years.

We are on course for the warmest December in more than 100 years of records and the wettest December for many parts of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and northwest England in more than 100 years…

[see 2] video extract of Scaife

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Last 2 years of Met Office areal series from 1910 (or 1929 sun) for 15 UK regional mixes, rain, sun, Tmin, Tmean, Tmax. Processed to z-score by the author, annual cycle removed. PDF of above for zoom/pan here

Weather was warm everywhere. Was not wet in the south.

The primary work produces full time series, five PDF containing full time of all above together with various metrics.

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Send in the clouds [credit:NASA]

Send in the clouds [credit:NASA]


Adding cloud data to climate models must be long overdue if it’s considered to be a new technique. Scientists were surprised to find that doing so accounted for over half the strength of El Niños, as Phys.org reports:

A small team of researchers from the U.S., Australia and Germany has found evidence that suggests cloud formation may have a much bigger impact on weather patterns associated with El Niño events than has been thought.

In their paper published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the team describes they differences they found when they input cloud data into computer models that simulated weather patterns associated with El Niño events and why they now believe that all such models should include such data going forward.

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New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.

sats-from-1995

Fig 1. Global temperature series from the two satellite datasets. The big El nino events in 1998 and 2010 were both followed by downturns. The 2015 El Nino will also be followed by a downturn in temperature.

Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that  we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.

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Met Office station data release

Posted: December 30, 2015 by tchannon in climate, Dataset, Surfacestation, weather

I am making available all the data collected from Met Office Datapoint for UK land stations.

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Example of data processed to show deviations.

This is hourly from 22nd July 2014 through 28th 31st Dec 2015, missing, etc. excepted. The data has been processed into time series with missing data filled with not available marks and also the verbatim datapoint XML as received.

A Talkshop page has been added, can get to it via top menu Portal, direct link here.

This ought to be a gold mine for those able to work on data. Millions of datapoints. The Met Office do not archive this immediate data for public access so whilst there are defects, you’ll have trouble finding this elsewhere.

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Dawlish storm damage 2014, what happened?

Posted: December 27, 2015 by tchannon in Accountability, weather

This article was researched and largely written early 2014 shortly after the Dawlish railway foreshore embankment was damaged during a storm. I was waiting for reports on what really went wrong, this never happened, so here we are. Added some recent material. Make of it what you will.

The usual moaning minnie’s are at it again on their man-caused-global- warming.

My best guess is local government allowed new building at what was already a weak point, from scour and inadequate maintenance. The messenger, weather, spoke. Response, scapegoat every which way.

Paul Homewood has a new article
Dawlish Rail Study Ignores The Facts
December 22, 2015″

I have done the work and written on the sea level rise claims, agree with Paul, not going into this now. (try here and links are from there to mygardenpond and the Talkshop)


Dawlish is on the southern coast of far south west England where it is sheltered from direct Atlantic storms.

Image
http://www.openstreetmap.org/?mlat=50.6059&mlon=-3.4991#map=9/50.6059/-3.4991&layers=T

 

A railway line built during the 19th century by Brunel [ref 1] routes along the waterfront connecting Cornwall by rail with the rest of the country. This is a known spectacular journey but also with a history of storm damage.

Night of 3rd February 2014 (I think) there was extensive major damage to the railway track, Exmouth railway station and other seafronts.

The ground is soft, red sandstone so undermining by the sea is a constant problem. If water under pressure gets into the structure of a seawall major damage is almost immediate. This is explosive, hydraulic, water is forced in under pressure, then the pressure falls to atmospheric sea-side.

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Hidden flooding Ireland

Posted: December 27, 2015 by tchannon in Accountability, weather

Lead to water, this article is complementary to Roger’s, widening the context to show there is little unique

On watching Irish matters I see things. The fuss over the north of England flooding etc. is showing the parochial nature of the media, there is just as much trouble in the Irish republic. Official UK maps tend to blank this out.

The Irish Times is in full flood here. Bit of a problem, the dates and the historic incompetence of Westminster government. We administered Ireland.

Badly constructed
He blamed some of the flooding on a weir at Killaloe “erected in 1845” which, he said, was badly constructed and “throws back water for 25 miles”.

He claimed the weir’s “height exceeds that authorised by Act of Parliament”; that it “has no sluices”; and had “insufficient waterway” for the access and escape of water.

Trench said: “The complaint is not that this weir mound was erected, but that it was the only part of the work that was done, and that those parts were left undone that were intended to remedy the obstruction which it caused.”

In an echo of comments heard this week from Ministers regarding delays to flood relief works due to planning objections, Trench noted that some of the remedial works and drainage schemes on the Shannon implemented by the authorities during the 1830s and 1840s had not been carried out properly because of “indifference and objections”.

Trench was one of many Irish landowners who lobbied the [British] government on the subject during the 19th century. Flooding on the Shannon was the subject of frequent debates in the House of Commons and House of Lords in London and various remedial works and drainage schemes were funded.
Cultivation precarious
In 1868 a report by a House of Commons “select committee on drainage and navigation of river Shannon” stated that “the lands along the banks of the Shannon for a distance of 150 miles have been exposed to floods, which render cultivation precarious, impede industry, and by the saturation of many thousands of acres affect the climate of the district through which it flows”.

The MPs noted that “for many years continual remonstrances had been made to successive governments to induce them to take into consideration this state of things, and to provide a remedy”.

However, the select committee concluded that some of the money spent on the remedial works and drainage schemes had been misappropriated, and that the board of works had altered some of the plans without seeking authorisation.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/floods/victorian-images-of-shannon-flooding-come-to-light-1.2462106

There is much more on The Irish Times, I’ll give the link in a moment.

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Tim writes: here we have a demonstration of both sides of scientific and organisational integrity. Ten years later, 2005, there was confirmation of the poor practice.

Some time ago Part 1 was published

The last line of the 1995 email was withheld. Here it is

Our daily series is anchored to the monthly one so that
each months average calculated from the daily data equals its value
in Manleys monthly series.

The Met Office promote “Hadley Centre Central England Temperature” and HadCET but avoid “Manley CET”. There was and is no daily Manley CET. The Met Office made one up, adjusting daily figures to average the Manley CET monthly value exactly.

January 1974 onwards there is no Manley CET data to constrain Met Office daily figures.

Image

Above is an image of the email, the verbatim server files from US publishing site are here inside a zip. File timestamps are preserved, presumably from original FTP disk write here on a contemporary computer system.

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Gordon Valentine Manley and his work

Posted: December 11, 2015 by tchannon in climate, History, weather

This recent paper turned up when I was looking for information on Manley of CET fame. This may be of interest to some readers. Side effect I can reference this from an article I am producing on CET.

Endfield, G. H., Veale, L. and Hall, A. (2015), Gordon Valentine Manley and his contribution to the study of climate change: a review of his life and work. WIREs Clim Change, 6: 287–299. doi: 10.1002/wcc.334

To my surprise with Wiley group this appears to be open access.

Quoting a quote from the paper

“Have you ever wondered why we in this country
have been so active? Have you ever looked at a world
population map and wondered why the great ‘blobs’
of world population are where they are? Have you
ever wondered why the active subscribers of world
civilisations are primarily in Europe?”

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Year or so ago I came up with a way to check out claims of extremes by the Met Office, use their own data but processed in a novel way. This software suit is automated, few clicks, whole thing is recreated from new data.

I’d heard Met Office claim November was set for the hottest ever for England, note the qualification to a region.

The Met Office blog posted this on 27th November 2015. Squealing a few days before month end has become a habit followed by stum. This time? Today is 2nd December, stum.

Warm November on course to equal record in England
27 11 2015

Early provisional statistics* (1- 25 November) show November has been notable for its mild weather.

Overall, temperatures for the UK have been 2.2°C above the November average, with this month on course in England to equal the previous warmest November in 1994 (9.5°C).

The other UK nations have been similarly warm

the mean temperature of 9.2°C in Wales currently the second warmest November on record here – behind 1996 (9.4°C)
the mean temperature of 6.6°C is currently joint third warmest in Scotland – behind 7.7°C in 2011 and 7.5°C in 1994
the mean temperature of 8.0°C in Northern Ireland is currently the fourth warmest on record – behind 8.8°C in 1994, 8.7°C in 2011 and 8.1°C in 2007
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/27/warm-november-on-course-to-equal-record-in-england/

Now I’m taking into account annual variation and trying to produce a statistical measure for a value, how extreme.

Broadly the UK was warm, wet, dull. Exceptional, no. Trend, no.

Top 20 rankings follow

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Era ending for Martin’s Booty

Posted: November 15, 2015 by tchannon in climate, Dataset, History, weather

Back in April I noticed this but did not post an article
[UPDATED]

Image

Many people have wandered through the wonderland Martin created during the early years of the world wide web. His painstaking construction of an annotated weather timeline from ancient times up to today.

Booty Meteorological Information Source

IMPORTANT: Some elements on this web site will continue to be maintained as long as I am able – mainly the West Moors local weather data: however, the ‘Weather in History’ section will have to be ‘frozen’ now as I can no longer access the ‘raw data’ to add-to / amend the entries. However, I’m pleased to report that the British Library have offered to archive the entire site (with the ‘Weather in History’ files embedded) and this will mean that the data will be available as long as that organisation is in being: the host web site is HERE: enter the search term ” Booty Meteorological ” into the text box to find the data.

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Shoreline on northern Alboran sea

Posted: November 11, 2015 by tchannon in Tides, weather

This article is of general interest without declaring any particular position. I hope it is interesting.

A few days ago Roger reblogged an article from MalagaBay about the sea level stand near Almayate, a small southern Spanish town 150km east of Gibraltar, 15km east of Malaga port, close to Velez-Malaga, a near coastal town on the Velez river. The most western Medeterrainin is called the Alboran Sea.

The Med is landlocked, has a very small tidal range but in consequence is prone to air pressure and wind modulation of stand, as well as fresh water incursion from rainfall. Moreover there much volcanic activity with severe crustal movement, sea bed change. In a way related the region is seismic with major tectonic faults also able to alter crustal stand.

There are in effect two Malaga’s

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Figure 1, Malaga port tide gauge, this is the place commonly known as Malaga.

PMSL carry no other useful tide gauge data in the region, all other records are very brief, although eg. Gibraltar must have a very long naval record but at the entrance to a large sea from an ocean the data would be strange.

This record is suspicious as though something has changed ~1990. In my experience this sort of station change is likely to be ground subsidence. A good case was found for Perth, Australia where deep aquifer pumping led to false claim of rapid sea level rise. (unpublished work by the author)

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Bewick swan [image credit: Maga-chan / Wikipedia]

Bewick swan [image credit: Maga-chan / Wikipedia]


That’s what Daily Telegraph headline writers are saying anyway. Seasonal weather predictions have a mixed record.

Britain is facing its longest winter in 50 years after the earliest-ever arrival of a Siberian swan which traditionally heralds the start of the season.

Each year around 300 Bewick’s swans migrate 2,500 miles from Arctic Russia to escape the approaching cold weather which follows closely behind them. They flock to the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust reserve at Slimbridge, Glos, where their arrival has been recorded since 1963.

The first bird arrived on Sunday – a full 25 days earlier than last year and the earliest date on record.

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Using holography to better understand clouds

Posted: October 11, 2015 by oldbrew in Clouds, research, weather
Tags:

Cumulus thunderheads near Sao Paulo, Brazil [image credit: Lunar and Planetary Institute]

Cumulus thunderheads near Sao Paulo, Brazil [image credit: Lunar and Planetary Institute]


Another shortcoming of computer models used in climate science is exposed here, as SpaceDaily explains.

As clouds change shape, mixing occurs, as drier air mingles with water-saturated air. New research led by Michigan Technological University analyzes this mixing with a holographic imaging instrument called HOLODEC and an airborne laboratory.

The work was done in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Mainz University. This new way of seeing clouds – and the way wet and dry air form sharp boundaries – is the focus of the team’s study, published in Science this week.

What the team found with these naturally created boundaries, formed by completely evaporating some water drops and leaving others unscathed, is called inhomogenous mixing. And it goes against base assumptions used in most computer models for cloud formations. [bold added]

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Met Office does claiming more extreme

Posted: September 25, 2015 by tchannon in alarmism, Analysis, weather

Collecting valid data is hard. Paul Homewood has highlighted a Met Office report for 2014, produced it seems September 2015. If that is true, no rush, get it right.

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— From State of the UK climate 2014

ImageFigure 1. Difference between two datasets of more or less the same thing. The red linear trend line is hinting there is dataset drift.

Oh yes definitely more severe weather..

Snag, this is Met Office data against Met Office data.

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