Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

Met Office does claiming more extreme

Posted: September 25, 2015 by tchannon in alarmism, Analysis, weather

Collecting valid data is hard. Paul Homewood has highlighted a Met Office report for 2014, produced it seems September 2015. If that is true, no rush, get it right.


— From State of the UK climate 2014

ImageFigure 1. Difference between two datasets of more or less the same thing. The red linear trend line is hinting there is dataset drift.

Oh yes definitely more severe weather..

Snag, this is Met Office data against Met Office data.


Rainfall variation during a year

Posted: September 17, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, climate, weather

A post by Paul Homewood expressed surprise at comment by Philip Eden in his Sunday Telegraph newspaper column about August rainfall. Eden missed a trick, reality is more interesting. I’m responding here with a lengthy item.


How rainfall varies over the year by area for a few regional datasets. Includes data from 1770 to date. (data is provided if the details matter)

Eden is I think pushing reality in finding subset areas where August is the wettest month. Read Paul’s article here.

As I read it autumn storms originate in the tropical Atlantic bringing water which has infamy[*]. As the Atlantic cools there are fewer storms and colder air. As the year progresses into what passes as summer airflow may bring warm wet air from the south, continental Europe drying out, more infamy. We have an Indian summer lull, the Atlantic calls.


This article is part of preparing the way for later revelations about instrumentation defects.



Figure 1 (upper), Figure 2 (lower) computed mean insolation for horizontal surface at this exact location and weather parameters, no cloud.

Figure 1 (upper), Experimental work[1] showing nearly daily temperature variation from expected, specifically designed to exclude diurnal but include detail variation at the fastest scale feasible. Time graticule at 10 days, data points at 12 hours. Surprisingly the July 1st hot period has vanished. Plots of other sites show a similar effect. The most frequent warm and cool periods of weather are brief and readily seen.

This computation will produce different values from the mean values computed from thermometer minimum and maximum data because data shape at other times is taken into account, min/max does not. The filter used is also windowed, leakage is negligible.


Guernsey weather station

Posted: August 22, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation, weather

Few days ago I noted new sites flash up on screen as a daily weather capture took place.

Guernsey is the second largest of the Channel Islands, a group just off the French coast beside the Cherbourg peninsular.

Met Office Datapoint have added Guernsey, Jersey is already in the data. This is surprising they are similar islands, close geographically, climatically similar.

As usual the Met Office only give crude co-ordinates and no other information. Looks like it is at the airport, as is the Jersey station. On looking I learnt there is

Guernsey Met Office
A division of the States of Guernsey Public Services Department

A further surprise is the 2014 Annual Weather Report (58 pages), a very good work, refreshing in this age of newspeak and excesses.


The Lihou Island Automated Met Station received a major service and upgrade in the summer. The station is very important in that it measures temperatures in a completely unspoilt environment. The presence of the Met Observatory at Guernsey Airport means that the airfield provides the official temperature record for the island. Since the Met Office moved there in 1947, however, the land use of the airfield and the surrounding area has changed markedly with a notable increase in the acreage of tarmac, concrete, buildings and other man made surfaces. This land use change results in the formation of an “airport heat island” a phenomenon observed around the world where areas of concrete, roads and runways heat up on days with strong sunlight and then slowly release their heat through the night.

Although the Guernsey Airport heat island is small when averaged over the course of a year and only raises average temperatures by a fraction of a degree, it is an unwelcome variable that makes it harder to accurately detect temperature changes caused by genuine climate change. The Lihou record is therefore invaluable in that it measures temperature in an area where no significant development has been undertaken or will be allowed to take place. Over many years, it should therefore be possible to compare the Lihou temperature record with that of Guernsey Airport and gain an understanding of how land use changes on and around the airport are altering our temperature records.

Google or Bing aerial pictures show the airport is a building site (Google Earth timeline is useful for this). A probable meteorological enclosure, near the control tower, seems to have moved quite recently, to where, no idea. Possibly the Guernsey Met Office have a separate site.


July 2015 was about as ordinary as it gets

Posted: August 6, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A bit scruffy but here is an attempt to show all recent movement in one.


Or as PDF (110kB half the size of the above clickable)

Thumb plots for the 17 UK regions, 5 different monthly parameters Tmin, Tmean, Tmax, Sunshine, Rainfall. Any newcomers note these are Z-scores after compensating the data for asymmetry and normal variation throughout a year in an attempt to show true weather noise. We know it rains during the autumn so that is of no interest but deviations are. (see earlier works for a full explanation)

Scotland was slightly cool and damp, Northern Ireland also. England notwithstanding brief warm patch in the south on the 1st the end result was English summer weather. Must be the cricket.


Heathrow tail spin

Posted: July 29, 2015 by tchannon in weather

Nothing like reality


Estimated mean July 2015 based on 1st through 2300 27th assume weather continues as-is, horrible, windy, damp, chilly

Normal from Norwegian weather service

Given the July 1st heat spike I wonder how the Met Office will spin things.

Summer weather to return as we head into weekend
28 07 2015

More summer-like weather will return to the UK with conditions and temperatures due to improve as we head into the weekend.

This will come as welcome news to many after a spell of disappointing weather over the past few days which has seen prolonged rainfall and some unseasonably strong winds.

Looks at calendar, Friday as we go into the weekend is 31st July.


Netherlands worst July storm in 100 years

Posted: July 25, 2015 by tchannon in Incompetence, weather



Static image captured from EUMETNET some hours after the event.

Coastal gusts to 70 mph. Naturally public transport halts.

Since 1901, okay, seeing that the Dutch have weather data going back hundreds of years a bit remiss to record nothing about storms.

Netherlands’ worst July storm kills one, causes transport chaos

One person was killed as the most severe July storm ever recorded in the Netherlands swept across the country on Saturday, delaying flights and disrupting road and rail traffic.

Dozens of flights were delayed at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport and authorities warned travellers not to take to the road as gale-force winds and rain lashed the country, prompting the meteorological service to issue a “Code Red” warning. [before or after?]

No trains were running at Amsterdam Central Station, and trams were halted across the city. Roads were blocked by fallen trees in many places around the low-lying country.


Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]

Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]

We have highlighted this before, but the period just keeps getting longer, much to the relief of many U.S. citizens no doubt. reports: It has been 117 months since a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or above, has made landfall in the continental United States, according to 2015 data from the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This is the longest span of time in which no major hurricane has struck the mainland U.S. in NOAA hurricane records going back to 1851.


Half time in Typhoon season

Posted: July 12, 2015 by tchannon in weather

Who stole it?

” satellite pictures show half of this storm apparently missing. ”

Yes, pictures are apparent. Careful, it might be hiding with that globule warning stuff.

Rewind to 11th July 2015, yesterday….

China evacuates nearly a million as typhoon hits
About 960,000 residents flee coastal cities and transport disrupted as typhoon brings winds of up to 200kmph.

Note the “200kmph”, knotty.

The collapse of Typhoon Chan-hom
Shanghai escapes significant typhoon damage as decline in strength seems to have happened in hours.

Must be those Ameircan devils messing with the satellites.


Coldest snap in five years to hit Australia says BoM

Posted: July 9, 2015 by oldbrew in weather

Something like this? [image credit: BBC]

Something like this? [image credit: BBC]

Not quite what’s expected by most officially-sponsored channels that like to trumpet supposed relentless warming in our futures…

Temperatures will drop to freezing on much of Australia’s east coast this weekend in what could be the region’s bitterest cold snap in five years, the Daily Telegraph reports.

Strong cold winds, rain, snow and hail were expected to batter the nation’s south-east for days.
Sydneysiders could expect an average maximum temperature of 59F (15C) for four days – a two year record.


July frost

Posted: July 9, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

Wierding continues


Morning of 9th July 2015 the Katesbridge Met Office site reported a frost, flat lining air temperature close to 0.0C which arguably means frost was forming on the Stevenson screen. Whether this was an air frost, don’t know. Dew formation produces a less clear flat but is not usually clear in hourly data.

Notoriously cold still air site, convective cooling, no wind. Sun was up by 5AM but there are low hills thereabouts.


More notably temperatures were widely below 10C (50F) in Northern Ireland, England and Scotland. Where there was a wind, a good example St Bees Head where it was off sea, 11C, Arctic air, reaching right across, Bridlington where the screen is almost on the east coast foreshore was also cool.


HadUKP precipitation, nothing to see here

Posted: July 7, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

This little work rather counters the headless chickens preparing for a French cooking pot.


Figure 1, CRU/Hadley/Met Office precipitation series starting 1766, just one in the HadUKP series. Good news, there is nothing more than weather noise in any of the 11 region series. All bundled in this PDF. (2MB)
For number watchers, Jan 2014 came 11th wettest.

This note is on their web page

We are currently planning a project to merge the HadUKP series with the England and Wales Rainfall series described above. The outcome of this project will be a single historical rainfall series for the UK.

I suppose that makes sense yet neither series is IMO satisfactory on geography. The UK has a variety of weather regimes. Merging regimes has the effect of mixing evidence where average is not very useful. Is there a better solution?


The Met Office have some explaining to do.

Why 7 minutes after a claimed hottest ever did the same place publish a safety record at least 1.2C lower? It was lower 7km, away at Northholt and all the surrounding places. Muttering about thunder won’t wash either because CAVOK says no, if it is correct. Plume from France? It was much colder to the south, Met Office data says so. Fohn? Ah yes the snow capped Sussex Alps.


Image from OGIMET, no link given to protect private server from excess traffic.

Someone please cross check me in case this is mistaken.

  • 13:20 it is 31C
  • 13:50 it is 35C
  • 14:20 it is 35C
  • 14:50 it is 34C

Perhaps aeronatutical services use a different thermometer but the Met Office site is an WMO synoptic station. Why pay for the Met Office site if it isn’t used? If it is a site there for accurate climatic recording why such a poor location? (see other articles)

The 11 figure is dewpoint, also in contradiction.

Then there is the matter of Met Office Support giving the author the runaround since January over wrong meteorological hourly data emitted by the Met Office servers. The similarity is curious.


This work is intended to give insight into the climate of the UK.


Figure 1, Sunshine and temperature relationship

At first sight the above might seem strange but is logical. Regional effect can be seen, particularly the Atlantic maritime, eg. East vs. West Scotland, a contrast with the dryer East Anglia and NE England.

The underlying data is a heavily processed version of Met Office areal series by the author, all results 1929 through June 2015. Final data section is linked to various plots and data.


Heat wave day 2, Heathrow Airport about 36C

Posted: July 1, 2015 by tchannon in weather

As expected, see here ,

Day 2 of the June/July 2015 heatwave in England topped out at an hourly mean of 35.9C which will be bumped up by spot noise to >36C, unless the Met Office finds a higher reading from somewhere out of sight. The weather was very humid and under variable cloud, wind SSE which brings it from urban.

No time for neat formatting, from quick SS sort.

3772 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 35.9 Heathrow Airport
3672 2015-07-01Z 16:00:00 na 35.1 Northholt Airport
99080 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 34.8 Wisley Garden
3772 2015-07-01Z 16:00:00 na 34.6 Heathrow Airport
3672 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 34.5 Northholt Airport
99095 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.5 Kew Gardebs
3672 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.3 Northholt Airport
3772 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.3 Heathrow Airport
99095 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 34.2 Kew Gardebs
3772 2015-07-01Z 10:00:00 na 34.1 Heathrow Airport
99057 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.1 Woburn (ARS)
3462 2015-07-01Z 12:00:00 na 33.9 RAF Wittering


This will cause squealing, 30C+?

Posted: June 27, 2015 by tchannon in weather

French weather forecasters are saying a severe heat wave is coming at the beginning of July, spreading up into France, looks like further so expect 30C+ in England.

Classic conditions of extensive high pressure, little wind. The Atlantic charts continue to show a confused pattern.


Temperature in Fahrenheit, US Navy. Contrary to the French forecasters this points to an extension from continental Asia. A question of course is whether blocking starts, very difficult to forecast.

In the past there have been similar heat waves where I’ve noticed a possible connection with solar events. Is this possible? What I have in mind is not the same pattern, that though is formed without seeing The sun has been popping.


[credit: NASA]

[credit: NASA]

A few weeks ago we put up a post to discuss the role of convection in the Earth’s atmosphere:
Beginner’s guide to convection cells

The introduction, linked to a short video, said:
‘When you warm air, it rises. Cool air will sink. This process of convection can lead to flows in the atmosphere, in a manner that we can illustrate [see video] on a small scale. Warm and cool air in a fish tank rise and fall; this motion is made visible by adding fog. Ultimately, the motion leads to a convection cell, with air rising, moving to the side, falling, and moving back. This heat-driven motion of air moves heat around in the atmosphere. It is also responsible for making the wind blow.’

That may have seemed straightforward to some, but a few hundred comments later controversy continues, so we’re starting a new post using this website for reference : Lapse Rate, Moisture, Clouds and Thunderstorms


Since I can, maybe, I decided to sell the new software a pup…

Goes likes this: plot RSSTLT and UAHTLT6 with the do not delete file flag, import both CSV into spreadsheet, subtract, change some text, export as CSV, start hacking, add a way to accept an alien file, and yay, it works.


Figure 1, RSSTLT less UAHTLT V6, forced plot range, unweighted

Any no data in either is no data, otherwise verbatim.
Force range is about that Himalayas spike in RSS, autoscale sees it but is so extreme a manual reduces the range, value clips to maximum colour, no change. (in a global sense one cell is gnats pee)

PDF for pan and zoom is here (283kB)
I can do a version with annotated temperatures if requested, large file. If names want this, expect you have my email.


RSS temperatures for May 2015 in pictures

Posted: June 10, 2015 by tchannon in weather

UAH seem late this month, RSS is out. Nothing unusual.


Figure 1, Global mean computed from data used exactly matches official.

What follows is the works for RSS.

I’ll be explaining weighted later on. The point is attempting an honest representation.


Oops, June frosts

Posted: June 9, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A few gardeners will be unhappy about the notorious June frosts appearing during 2015 but I suspect not severe enough to damage much but it will check growth.


Note too how the wind caps temperature rise.

Ground frosts provided they are brief rarely cause damage, air frost is a different matter. Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, England were all cold where the wind was able to fall calm. We are almost at the longest day of the year so nights are brief, dawn is plain at 4am BST minimising the time for cooling.

We have had a series of pleasant days but rather cool at night, continuing, although a change in the weather is expected. Tends to be lovely sunny after dawn, then clouds turn up. We get a summer? Hopefully soon.

I noticed the house thermostat was calling for heat last night, if it did (is switched off at night) would have been brief… looks a nice day but outside the wind says cool.

Katesbridge dipped to -1C last night, an air frost. Aonach Mo wasn’t far behind, with a wind, not calm but that’s Scotland and 3000ft up. Eskdalemuir came very close, 1000ft, Shap, Bala, and so on. Plenty of places were cold enough for a ground frost.