Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

Heathrow tail spin

Posted: July 29, 2015 by tchannon in weather

Nothing like reality

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Estimated mean July 2015 based on 1st through 2300 27th assume weather continues as-is, horrible, windy, damp, chilly

Normal from Norwegian weather service

Given the July 1st heat spike I wonder how the Met Office will spin things.

Summer weather to return as we head into weekend
28 07 2015

More summer-like weather will return to the UK with conditions and temperatures due to improve as we head into the weekend.

This will come as welcome news to many after a spell of disappointing weather over the past few days which has seen prolonged rainfall and some unseasonably strong winds.
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/07/28/summer-weather-to-return-as-we-head-into-weekend/

Looks at calendar, Friday as we go into the weekend is 31st July.

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Netherlands worst July storm in 100 years

Posted: July 25, 2015 by tchannon in Incompetence, weather

Weather

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Static image captured from EUMETNET some hours after the event.

Coastal gusts to 70 mph. Naturally public transport halts.

Since 1901, okay, seeing that the Dutch have weather data going back hundreds of years a bit remiss to record nothing about storms.

Netherlands’ worst July storm kills one, causes transport chaos

One person was killed as the most severe July storm ever recorded in the Netherlands swept across the country on Saturday, delaying flights and disrupting road and rail traffic.

Dozens of flights were delayed at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport and authorities warned travellers not to take to the road as gale-force winds and rain lashed the country, prompting the meteorological service to issue a “Code Red” warning. [before or after?]

No trains were running at Amsterdam Central Station, and trams were halted across the city. Roads were blocked by fallen trees in many places around the low-lying country.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/25/uk-dutch-storm-idUKKCN0PZ0K120150725

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Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]

Not a recent photo [credit: NOAA]


We have highlighted this before, but the period just keeps getting longer, much to the relief of many U.S. citizens no doubt.

CNSNews.com reports: It has been 117 months since a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or above, has made landfall in the continental United States, according to 2015 data from the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This is the longest span of time in which no major hurricane has struck the mainland U.S. in NOAA hurricane records going back to 1851.

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Half time in Typhoon season

Posted: July 12, 2015 by tchannon in weather

Who stole it?

” satellite pictures show half of this storm apparently missing. ”

Yes, pictures are apparent. Careful, it might be hiding with that globule warning stuff.

Rewind to 11th July 2015, yesterday….

China evacuates nearly a million as typhoon hits
About 960,000 residents flee coastal cities and transport disrupted as typhoon brings winds of up to 200kmph.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/china-typhoon-chan-hom-150711043658185.html

Note the “200kmph”, knotty.

The collapse of Typhoon Chan-hom
Shanghai escapes significant typhoon damage as decline in strength seems to have happened in hours.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/collapse-typhoon-chan-hom-150712101407513.html

Must be those Ameircan devils messing with the satellites.

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Coldest snap in five years to hit Australia says BoM

Posted: July 9, 2015 by oldbrew in weather
Tags:

Something like this? [image credit: BBC]

Something like this? [image credit: BBC]


Not quite what’s expected by most officially-sponsored channels that like to trumpet supposed relentless warming in our futures…

Temperatures will drop to freezing on much of Australia’s east coast this weekend in what could be the region’s bitterest cold snap in five years, the Daily Telegraph reports.

Strong cold winds, rain, snow and hail were expected to batter the nation’s south-east for days.
Sydneysiders could expect an average maximum temperature of 59F (15C) for four days – a two year record.

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July frost

Posted: July 9, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

Wierding continues

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Morning of 9th July 2015 the Katesbridge Met Office site reported a frost, flat lining air temperature close to 0.0C which arguably means frost was forming on the Stevenson screen. Whether this was an air frost, don’t know. Dew formation produces a less clear flat but is not usually clear in hourly data.

Notoriously cold still air site, convective cooling, no wind. Sun was up by 5AM but there are low hills thereabouts.

Why?

More notably temperatures were widely below 10C (50F) in Northern Ireland, England and Scotland. Where there was a wind, a good example St Bees Head where it was off sea, 11C, Arctic air, reaching right across, Bridlington where the screen is almost on the east coast foreshore was also cool.

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HadUKP precipitation, nothing to see here

Posted: July 7, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

This little work rather counters the headless chickens preparing for a French cooking pot.

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Figure 1, CRU/Hadley/Met Office precipitation series starting 1766, just one in the HadUKP series. Good news, there is nothing more than weather noise in any of the 11 region series. All bundled in this PDF. (2MB)
For number watchers, Jan 2014 came 11th wettest.

This note is on their web page

We are currently planning a project to merge the HadUKP series with the England and Wales Rainfall series described above. The outcome of this project will be a single historical rainfall series for the UK.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/

I suppose that makes sense yet neither series is IMO satisfactory on geography. The UK has a variety of weather regimes. Merging regimes has the effect of mixing evidence where average is not very useful. Is there a better solution?

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The Met Office have some explaining to do.

Why 7 minutes after a claimed hottest ever did the same place publish a safety record at least 1.2C lower? It was lower 7km, away at Northholt and all the surrounding places. Muttering about thunder won’t wash either because CAVOK says no, if it is correct. Plume from France? It was much colder to the south, Met Office data says so. Fohn? Ah yes the snow capped Sussex Alps.

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Image from OGIMET, no link given to protect private server from excess traffic.

Someone please cross check me in case this is mistaken.

  • METAR
  • 13:20 it is 31C
  • 13:50 it is 35C
  • 14:20 it is 35C
  • 14:50 it is 34C

Perhaps aeronatutical services use a different thermometer but the Met Office site is an WMO synoptic station. Why pay for the Met Office site if it isn’t used? If it is a site there for accurate climatic recording why such a poor location? (see other articles)

The 11 figure is dewpoint, also in contradiction.

Then there is the matter of Met Office Support giving the author the runaround since January over wrong meteorological hourly data emitted by the Met Office servers. The similarity is curious.

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This work is intended to give insight into the climate of the UK.

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Figure 1, Sunshine and temperature relationship

At first sight the above might seem strange but is logical. Regional effect can be seen, particularly the Atlantic maritime, eg. East vs. West Scotland, a contrast with the dryer East Anglia and NE England.

The underlying data is a heavily processed version of Met Office areal series by the author, all results 1929 through June 2015. Final data section is linked to various plots and data.

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Heat wave day 2, Heathrow Airport about 36C

Posted: July 1, 2015 by tchannon in weather

As expected, see here ,

Day 2 of the June/July 2015 heatwave in England topped out at an hourly mean of 35.9C which will be bumped up by spot noise to >36C, unless the Met Office finds a higher reading from somewhere out of sight. The weather was very humid and under variable cloud, wind SSE which brings it from urban.

No time for neat formatting, from quick SS sort.

3772 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 35.9 Heathrow Airport
3672 2015-07-01Z 16:00:00 na 35.1 Northholt Airport
99080 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 34.8 Wisley Garden
3772 2015-07-01Z 16:00:00 na 34.6 Heathrow Airport
3672 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 34.5 Northholt Airport
99095 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.5 Kew Gardebs
3672 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.3 Northholt Airport
3772 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.3 Heathrow Airport
99095 2015-07-01Z 14:00:00 na 34.2 Kew Gardebs
3772 2015-07-01Z 10:00:00 na 34.1 Heathrow Airport
99057 2015-07-01Z 15:00:00 na 34.1 Woburn (ARS)
3462 2015-07-01Z 12:00:00 na 33.9 RAF Wittering

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This will cause squealing, 30C+?

Posted: June 27, 2015 by tchannon in weather

French weather forecasters are saying a severe heat wave is coming at the beginning of July, spreading up into France, looks like further so expect 30C+ in England.

Classic conditions of extensive high pressure, little wind. The Atlantic charts continue to show a confused pattern.

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Temperature in Fahrenheit, US Navy. Contrary to the French forecasters this points to an extension from continental Asia. A question of course is whether blocking starts, very difficult to forecast.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=efs_nvg_med&set=EFS

In the past there have been similar heat waves where I’ve noticed a possible connection with solar events. Is this possible? What I have in mind is not the same pattern, that though is formed without seeing The sun has been popping.

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[credit: NASA]

[credit: NASA]


A few weeks ago we put up a post to discuss the role of convection in the Earth’s atmosphere:
Beginner’s guide to convection cells

The introduction, linked to a short video, said:
‘When you warm air, it rises. Cool air will sink. This process of convection can lead to flows in the atmosphere, in a manner that we can illustrate [see video] on a small scale. Warm and cool air in a fish tank rise and fall; this motion is made visible by adding fog. Ultimately, the motion leads to a convection cell, with air rising, moving to the side, falling, and moving back. This heat-driven motion of air moves heat around in the atmosphere. It is also responsible for making the wind blow.’

That may have seemed straightforward to some, but a few hundred comments later controversy continues, so we’re starting a new post using this website for reference : Lapse Rate, Moisture, Clouds and Thunderstorms

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Since I can, maybe, I decided to sell the new software a pup…

Goes likes this: plot RSSTLT and UAHTLT6 with the do not delete file flag, import both CSV into spreadsheet, subtract, change some text, export as CSV, start hacking, add a way to accept an alien file, and yay, it works.

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Figure 1, RSSTLT less UAHTLT V6, forced plot range, unweighted

Any no data in either is no data, otherwise verbatim.
Force range is about that Himalayas spike in RSS, autoscale sees it but is so extreme a manual reduces the range, value clips to maximum colour, no change. (in a global sense one cell is gnats pee)

PDF for pan and zoom is here (283kB)
I can do a version with annotated temperatures if requested, large file. If names want this, expect you have my email.

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RSS temperatures for May 2015 in pictures

Posted: June 10, 2015 by tchannon in weather

UAH seem late this month, RSS is out. Nothing unusual.

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Figure 1, Global mean computed from data used exactly matches official.

What follows is the works for RSS.

I’ll be explaining weighted later on. The point is attempting an honest representation.

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Oops, June frosts

Posted: June 9, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A few gardeners will be unhappy about the notorious June frosts appearing during 2015 but I suspect not severe enough to damage much but it will check growth.

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Note too how the wind caps temperature rise.

Ground frosts provided they are brief rarely cause damage, air frost is a different matter. Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, England were all cold where the wind was able to fall calm. We are almost at the longest day of the year so nights are brief, dawn is plain at 4am BST minimising the time for cooling.

We have had a series of pleasant days but rather cool at night, continuing, although a change in the weather is expected. Tends to be lovely sunny after dawn, then clouds turn up. We get a summer? Hopefully soon.

I noticed the house thermostat was calling for heat last night, if it did (is switched off at night) would have been brief… looks a nice day but outside the wind says cool.

Katesbridge dipped to -1C last night, an air frost. Aonach Mo wasn’t far behind, with a wind, not calm but that’s Scotland and 3000ft up. Eskdalemuir came very close, 1000ft, Shap, Bala, and so on. Plenty of places were cold enough for a ground frost.

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US hurricane [image credit: NOAA]

US hurricane [image credit: NOAA]


Global warming pundits have failed miserably with regard to US hurricane frequency in recent years. NASA investigates:

The United States hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 or larger hurricane in nine years – a string of years that’s likely to come along only once every 177 years, according to a new NASA study.

The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.

Statistical analyses from hurricane track data indicate that for any particular Atlantic Hurricane season, there is about a 40 percent chance that a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) will make landfall in the continental United States. However, during the period from 2006 to 2014, no major hurricanes have made landfall.

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Snow-clearing in Boston [image credit: ABC News]

Snow-clearing in Boston
[image credit: ABC News]


Last winter parts of the USA received record snowfalls according to reports. While one winter is not a trend, it was also the second consecutive year of severe freezing of the Great Lakes on a scale not seen for decades.

A particularly harsh winter left many states over-budget on snow removal, with some having to kick in tens of millions in additional funding, according to a survey released Monday.

The survey of 23 states, conducted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, found that combined spending on winter maintenance operations exceeded $1 billion for the period between October, 2014 and March, 2015, the Associated Press reports.

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Spring 2015

Posted: April 18, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A gentle chat about the ordinary.

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May blossom, 18th April 2015, hedgerow central southern England, abt 5x life size. Click for larger. Various common names.

My impression is of a late spring for trees, landscape is still bare some places, just the start of greening but normal of low growing plants. Cherry here has been in blossom for a week.

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UK Sunshine, still the Met Office talk of trend

Posted: April 5, 2015 by tchannon in weather

This is in a way complementary to a post by Paul Homewood

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Figure 1. UK Sunshine hours according to Met Office areal data.

As I have been doing recently for rainfall, this is deannualised and normalised.. Filter is end corrected.

Paul Homewood has a particular interest at the moment in sunshine data, noting the Met Office have turned to record sunshine.

The result I get is slightly different because of the compensation for time of the year. December and January are dim months, sunniest is May. Using the simple meteorological mathematics and using the hard edged meteorological period of winter they found an extreme, sunniest winter in the data. See if that looks right given Figure 1. The Met Office also write “March has continued the trend”, Trend? That word is overexercised, they mean a run of four months, not unusual.

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China is less chuffed over coal

Posted: April 5, 2015 by tchannon in History, weather

I think think some readers will love the photos

In pictures from Aljazeera

And the text which goes with it by Adrian Brown.


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