Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

This will cause squealing, 30C+?

Posted: June 27, 2015 by tchannon in weather

French weather forecasters are saying a severe heat wave is coming at the beginning of July, spreading up into France, looks like further so expect 30C+ in England.

Classic conditions of extensive high pressure, little wind. The Atlantic charts continue to show a confused pattern.

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Temperature in Fahrenheit, US Navy. Contrary to the French forecasters this points to an extension from continental Asia. A question of course is whether blocking starts, very difficult to forecast.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=efs_nvg_med&set=EFS

In the past there have been similar heat waves where I’ve noticed a possible connection with solar events. Is this possible? What I have in mind is not the same pattern, that though is formed without seeing The sun has been popping.

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[credit: NASA]

[credit: NASA]


A few weeks ago we put up a post to discuss the role of convection in the Earth’s atmosphere:
Beginner’s guide to convection cells

The introduction, linked to a short video, said:
‘When you warm air, it rises. Cool air will sink. This process of convection can lead to flows in the atmosphere, in a manner that we can illustrate [see video] on a small scale. Warm and cool air in a fish tank rise and fall; this motion is made visible by adding fog. Ultimately, the motion leads to a convection cell, with air rising, moving to the side, falling, and moving back. This heat-driven motion of air moves heat around in the atmosphere. It is also responsible for making the wind blow.’

That may have seemed straightforward to some, but a few hundred comments later controversy continues, so we’re starting a new post using this website for reference : Lapse Rate, Moisture, Clouds and Thunderstorms

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Since I can, maybe, I decided to sell the new software a pup…

Goes likes this: plot RSSTLT and UAHTLT6 with the do not delete file flag, import both CSV into spreadsheet, subtract, change some text, export as CSV, start hacking, add a way to accept an alien file, and yay, it works.

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Figure 1, RSSTLT less UAHTLT V6, forced plot range, unweighted

Any no data in either is no data, otherwise verbatim.
Force range is about that Himalayas spike in RSS, autoscale sees it but is so extreme a manual reduces the range, value clips to maximum colour, no change. (in a global sense one cell is gnats pee)

PDF for pan and zoom is here (283kB)
I can do a version with annotated temperatures if requested, large file. If names want this, expect you have my email.

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RSS temperatures for May 2015 in pictures

Posted: June 10, 2015 by tchannon in weather

UAH seem late this month, RSS is out. Nothing unusual.

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Figure 1, Global mean computed from data used exactly matches official.

What follows is the works for RSS.

I’ll be explaining weighted later on. The point is attempting an honest representation.

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Oops, June frosts

Posted: June 9, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A few gardeners will be unhappy about the notorious June frosts appearing during 2015 but I suspect not severe enough to damage much but it will check growth.

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Note too how the wind caps temperature rise.

Ground frosts provided they are brief rarely cause damage, air frost is a different matter. Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, England were all cold where the wind was able to fall calm. We are almost at the longest day of the year so nights are brief, dawn is plain at 4am BST minimising the time for cooling.

We have had a series of pleasant days but rather cool at night, continuing, although a change in the weather is expected. Tends to be lovely sunny after dawn, then clouds turn up. We get a summer? Hopefully soon.

I noticed the house thermostat was calling for heat last night, if it did (is switched off at night) would have been brief… looks a nice day but outside the wind says cool.

Katesbridge dipped to -1C last night, an air frost. Aonach Mo wasn’t far behind, with a wind, not calm but that’s Scotland and 3000ft up. Eskdalemuir came very close, 1000ft, Shap, Bala, and so on. Plenty of places were cold enough for a ground frost.

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US hurricane [image credit: NOAA]

US hurricane [image credit: NOAA]


Global warming pundits have failed miserably with regard to US hurricane frequency in recent years. NASA investigates:

The United States hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 or larger hurricane in nine years – a string of years that’s likely to come along only once every 177 years, according to a new NASA study.

The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.

Statistical analyses from hurricane track data indicate that for any particular Atlantic Hurricane season, there is about a 40 percent chance that a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) will make landfall in the continental United States. However, during the period from 2006 to 2014, no major hurricanes have made landfall.

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Snow-clearing in Boston [image credit: ABC News]

Snow-clearing in Boston
[image credit: ABC News]


Last winter parts of the USA received record snowfalls according to reports. While one winter is not a trend, it was also the second consecutive year of severe freezing of the Great Lakes on a scale not seen for decades.

A particularly harsh winter left many states over-budget on snow removal, with some having to kick in tens of millions in additional funding, according to a survey released Monday.

The survey of 23 states, conducted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, found that combined spending on winter maintenance operations exceeded $1 billion for the period between October, 2014 and March, 2015, the Associated Press reports.

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Spring 2015

Posted: April 18, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A gentle chat about the ordinary.

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May blossom, 18th April 2015, hedgerow central southern England, abt 5x life size. Click for larger. Various common names.

My impression is of a late spring for trees, landscape is still bare some places, just the start of greening but normal of low growing plants. Cherry here has been in blossom for a week.

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UK Sunshine, still the Met Office talk of trend

Posted: April 5, 2015 by tchannon in weather

This is in a way complementary to a post by Paul Homewood

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Figure 1. UK Sunshine hours according to Met Office areal data.

As I have been doing recently for rainfall, this is deannualised and normalised.. Filter is end corrected.

Paul Homewood has a particular interest at the moment in sunshine data, noting the Met Office have turned to record sunshine.

The result I get is slightly different because of the compensation for time of the year. December and January are dim months, sunniest is May. Using the simple meteorological mathematics and using the hard edged meteorological period of winter they found an extreme, sunniest winter in the data. See if that looks right given Figure 1. The Met Office also write “March has continued the trend”, Trend? That word is overexercised, they mean a run of four months, not unusual.

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China is less chuffed over coal

Posted: April 5, 2015 by tchannon in History, weather

I think think some readers will love the photos

In pictures from Aljazeera

And the text which goes with it by Adrian Brown.


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Going nowhere

Going nowhere


Trend or exception: after two consecutive winters with 90% freeze-overs of the North American Great Lakes, plus this assessment(see below), what are the chances of an ‘Arctic death spiral’ as trumpeted in certain quarters over recent years?

Christopher Booker reports in the Sunday Telegraph (h/t GWPF):
As Britain emerges from an unusually sunny and comparatively mild winter, spare a thought for the people of eastern Canada, still in the grip of their most terrifying winter for decades. Recent pictures online of “Photographic proof that Canada’s east coast is basically the ice planet Hoth” show hapless residents standing below ice cliffs and snow drifts 20ft high. This month the Globe and Mail of Toronto, which endured its coldest February on record, described 2015 for Canada’s Atlantic provinces as having been like living in a “prison of snow and ice”.

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How well are weather GCM doing?

Posted: March 24, 2015 by tchannon in weather

Some idea can come from forecast synoptic charts so I have put together charts sets for T+120, T+96, T+72, T+48, T+24 and the T+0 analysis.

In an ideal world these would be identical.

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Figure 1, set of forecasts for Eclipse day, 20th March 2015, 12 hours.
Click image for full size PNG, 680kB

T+120 is top left, runs left to right then top the bottom, analysis bottom right or see image legends.

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The shadow of a solar eclipse over the UK

Posted: March 21, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

For what it’s worth here is the eclipse stuff I mentioned earlier.

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Figure 1, cloud abruptly cleared at midday.

There are 755 days of data from the Chilbolton Observatory, Hampshire, England, one of the worlds primary cloud research sites. Our interest is thermal radiation data. The collected is parsed from web plots, the raw data is available a month later, vast and I generally don’t process it. Either way this is one of the few sources of high resolution data in the world where there is public access.

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Paul Vaughan writes in suggestions:

It’s the wind.

Rial (2012) drew my attention to a fundamental correction that’s underway in oceanography (more notes forthcoming on this later) ….

Lozier, Susan (2010). Deconstructing the conveyor belt. Science 328, 1507-1511.
http://sites.duke.edu/mslozier/files/2010/11/Lozier_2010.pdf
=

Though appealing in its simplicity, the ocean conveyor-belt paradigm has lost luster over the years […] the ocean’s eddy field, unaccounted for just decades ago […] figures prominently in the dismantling of the conveyor-belt paradigm. Another player in this dismantling is the ocean’s wind field. The traditional assignation of surface ocean gyres to wind-forcing and overturning to buoyancy forcing has ignored the vital impact of winds on overturning pathways and mechanics. […] the conveyor-belt model no longer serves the community well […] because it ignores crucial structure and mechanics of the ocean’s intricate global overturning.

[…] wind forcing, rather than buoyancy forcing, can play a dominant role in changing the transport of the overturning […]

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The fuss about extreme rainfall last year tripped me into looking for myself. This led to an innovative analysis of Met Office areal time series for precipitation. There was little interest shown but also little criticism. I’m bringing up Windows 8.1 64 here, same hardware, testing various codebases.
As a wonder-if… the Met Office publish areal series for air temperature, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin. Daft idea, pull one file and eyeball, looks the same data format as rainfall. Do the lazy thing, copy code to a new directory, few trivial edits and hit go. It works. The results look sane.
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Tmean for East Scotland, one of 68 plots. The four PDF, Tmean, Tmax, Tmin and Precipitation are linked later. Zoom to any scale works on what are postscript vector data, details can be seen.

A take-home from seeing the results is the episodic nature of weather. Mostly it is bouncing around as weather does but also there are sustained periods with less noise and perhaps floods or droughts, warm or chilly. The temperature data says we have recently had cool and then warm episode. Where this is notable it seems to last for around a year, as-if anything is a definite rule.

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Wind speed law

Posted: February 21, 2015 by tchannon in weather, wind

I decided to show something useful instead of waiting until perfect data is available.

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Frequency plot of wind speed over the whole of the UK. The characteristic is logarithmic.

There are data problems, ignore this please[1].

The Met Office in common with all national meteorological services continue to use cup anemometers rather than eg. ultrasonic This is the advice[2] from WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) specifically to maintain continuity of data for climatic purposes since there are significant differences between cup and other types.

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Forum on climate change postponed due to snow

Posted: February 11, 2015 by oldbrew in humour, weather
Tags:

Snow mountain [image credit: ibtimes.co.uk]

Snow mountain [image credit: ibtimes.co.uk]


It’s not funny to be facing the result of massive snowfalls but this might be an exception.

BOSTON – A legislative forum on climate change has been postponed, ironically, due to the weather.

“I hope these repeated, severe storms serve as a platform for some important conversations around bolstering our natural and built infrastructure against climate change once a new date has been set for this discussion,” said State Sen. Marc Pacheco (D-Taunton), who chairs the Senate Committee on Global Warming and Climate Change and organized the summit.

The forum had been scheduled for Tuesday at the Statehouse, but the MBTA is shut down Tuesday as Massachusetts continues to dig out from an unprecedented amount of snowfall.

Pacheco’s forum was going to include numerous speakers from environmental organizations and academia as well as Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs Matthew Beaton, Senate President Stan Rosenberg (D-Amherst) and other legislators. Raymond Bradley, director of the Climate System Research Center at UMass Amherst, and Richard Palmer, a professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UMass Amherst, were among those who had been slated to attend.

Report from masslive.com.

*****
Things are so bad they may have to dump cleared snow straight into the ocean.

Australians cool Melbourne

Posted: January 23, 2015 by tchannon in Surfacestation, UHI, weather

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Mr Trewin also noted that the Bureau had recently changed its Melbourne monitoring site from the Royal Society of Victoria on La Trobe Street in the city to Olympic Park, near Rod Laver Arena. Maximum temperatures recorded at the new site were on average 1.2 degrees cooler, particularly on cool days, because air coming from the south and west was travelling over parklands rather than the through the city.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-weather-summer-2015-still-hot-just-last-year-was-hotter-20150119-12tbhi.html

h/t to handjive at notricks

Head image from an article by Anthony Watts at Steve McIntyre’s ClimateAudit 2007 article 6 years ago. (I’ve add the red circles)

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BOM report it here, no mention of why

. Above is how BOM show the station.

Even rainfall data will be wrong with those tall nearby structures and fences.

The Age reported the closure here. No mention of why.

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Photography corner: Walking in the White

Posted: January 17, 2015 by tallbloke in Photography, weather
Tags:

I took time out this morning to go on a walk round (and over) Baildon moor, with some friends and aquaintances. The weather was a mixture of sunshine and snow showers, at the top o the moor, it was a bit of a blizzard:

Baildon17Jan201507

We were caught in another snow shower as we descended Sconce lane.

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Caught on video, the total collapse of yet another wind turbine. The original facebook video is here. I have saved a copy.

turbine-collapse-germany3
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