Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

Electricity transmission [credit: green lantern electric]

The UK National Grid is now for technical reasons unable to adequately control its own electricity generation, due to excessive amounts of solar power output under favourable weather conditions. This cost the country nearly £10 million last Monday alone and is ‘likely to occur on any sunny weekends this summer’.
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Energy data firm EnAppSys has raised concerns about National Grid ESO‘s actions, stating that power is “being dumped into Belgium and the Netherlands”, reports Energy Live News.

According to EnAppSys, these countries currently have an excess of power, prompting National Grid ESO to pay high prices to offload the surplus.

Energy Live News contacted National Grid ESO for comment, but they declined to provide a statement.

Phil Hewitt, Director of EnAppSys, shed light on the situation, explaining that National Grid ESO cited it as an “energy action” taken to manage an oversupply of power and reduce generation and interconnector imports.

Mr Hewitt told Energy Live News: “The reason National Grid ESO gave yesterday (Monday 29th May) was that it was an energy action. This means they had too much power and needed to reduce generation and interconnector imports.

“They couldn’t turn off power stations because they needed them on to provide inertia to the system so this left the interconnectors as their only option. To change the output of interconnectors, they trade with counterparties that have access to the intraday markets on the other side of the interconnector. These traders quote prices that National Grid ESO then accepts to change the output of the interconnectors.

“This kind of high price reversal event is likely to occur on any sunny weekends this summer. As a response to the high energy prices last year, industrial and domestic consumers in Great Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands and France have responded by installing solar panels; this has resulted in a big increase in solar generation on sunny days.

“Electricity system operators in these countries need to investigate how to create curtailment products to encourage consumers to stop generation during these periods, otherwise the SOs will be spending a lot of money on balancing the markets on these kind of days.

“Yesterday (Monday 29th May), National Grid ESO spent £9.4 million on balancing the system by trading and using the balancing mechanism.”

Full report here.

Claims that climate scientists ‘have never seen anything like it’ don’t tell us much as human lifetimes are short compared to Earth’s climate variations. There’s the story of the drained lake that reappeared – so clearly it was once there before any talk of ‘climate change’.
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High in the California mountains, a ski resort sits buried under layers of snow and ice, says Sky News.

Residents of Mammoth Lakes fear for their lives, and livelihoods, after a winter of record snowfalls.

Wooden houses are blanketed under white powder, cars are buried beneath cement-like drifts, and roads are lined by colossal snow banks stretching up to 50ft tall.

Every so often a dagger-like slab of snow or ice will slide from a rooftop and shatter on the ground.


Volcanic eruption

At least they now know about it. In tests, ‘inclusion of the eruptions degraded the model’s predictive capabilities’.
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Simulated volcanic eruptions may be blowing up our ability to predict near-term climate, according to a new study published in Science Advances.

The research, led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), finds that the way volcanic eruptions are represented in climate models may be masking the models’ ability to accurately predict variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that unfold over multiple years to a decade, says

These decadal variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are linked to climate impacts across the globe, including variations in precipitation and severe weather.

Accurate predictions, therefore, could provide community leaders, farmers, water managers, and others with critical climate information that allows them to plan years in advance.

“Near-term climate prediction on annual to decadal timescales is a rapidly growing and important field in the climate community because it bridges the gap between existing seasonal forecasts and centennial climate projections,” said Xian Wu, who led the study as a postdoctoral researcher at NCAR.

“When we rely on models to make these predictions, it’s important to carefully consider the model’s fidelity. In this case, we found that model errors in simulating the response to volcanic eruptions degraded our prediction skill.”

For the study, Wu and her colleagues relied on two parallel collections of climate simulations from the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble, a dataset produced using the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model.

These simulations were run as hindcasts and cover the years from 1954–2015, allowing scientists to compare the simulations with what really occurred and evaluate their skill at predicting the future.

One collection of simulations included the three major volcanic eruptions that occurred during the study period: Agung (1963), El Chichón (1982), and Pinatubo (1991). The other collection did not.

Because it is well established that large volcanic eruptions can have significant, long-term cooling effects on the climate, Wu and her colleagues expected that the collection of simulations that included the volcanic eruptions would produce more accurate multiyear and decadal climate predictions.

Instead, they found that the inclusion of the eruptions degraded the model’s predictive capabilities, at least in the tropical Pacific, an area that is especially important because of the connections between sea surface temperatures and near-term climate events.

For example, the simulations that included the volcanoes predicted a subsequent cooling of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific after the eruptions. In reality, that region of the ocean warmed, a change that was well predicted by the simulations that did not include the volcanic eruptions.

These findings highlight the difficulty of accurately representing the complex climate impacts that follow a volcanic eruption in a model, a task made more challenging because researchers only have a few real-life examples in the observational record.

Scientists know that volcanoes can loft sulfur gases high into the stratosphere where they can transform into sunlight-reflecting aerosols. But how the resulting cooling ultimately affects the entire Earth system, including sea surface temperatures, is not well understood.

“We just don’t have enough observations,” Wu said. “And our methods to observe what is happening in the stratosphere have only been available since the satellite era, which means we only have Chichón and Pinatubo.”

Full article here.

Image credit:]

‘Record snowpack’, ‘staggering snowfall’ – dismal climate doomsters take note.
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Record snowfall across much of the western United States has not only helped to alleviate drought—it has also brought a massive boon for the region’s ski resorts, with many hoping to keep their lifts running deep into summer, says

Sitting more than 10,500 feet (3,200 meters) above sea level, Colorado’s Arapahoe Basin has long been famous for its long seasons. The resort’s frozen pistes were the state’s first to open last fall, and typically don’t close until June.

“I bet you, here, we might make it into July. I hope so,” said local ski enthusiast Ian Burkle, 52.


Their analysis relates to 1979-2018 only. Media talk of ‘stranded’ polar bears, not mentioned in the study, ignores the fact that they are talented swimmers. The unresolved issue of the wavier jet stream is noted in the study, but that’s all. They admit prediction of where it’s all going is difficult.
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Pictures of melting glaciers and stranded [?] polar bears on shrinking sea ice in the Arctic are perhaps the most striking images that have been used to highlights the effects of global warming, says

However, they do not convey the full extent of the consequences of warmer Arctic. In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world. [Talkshop comment – dubious assertions]

While the Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average, winters in the midlatitude regions have experienced colder and more severe weather events.


Image credit:

The article summary is shown below. See this link for expanded discussion and evidence. No punches pulled here. In short, the evidence doesn’t stack up, so the author – an expert in his own right – calls the IPCC’s cyclone claims ‘fiction’.
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A top conclusion of the recent Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the attribution of observed changes in tropical cyclones to human influence has strengthened over the past 9 years.

The IPCC does not justify its claim that both the detection of changes and attribution have been achieved, says Roger Pielke Jr.

So in Part 1 of this exploration, I tracked back the claim and found that it had no support in the one paper miscited by the IPCC in support of the claim.

In this second part, I look at official data on tropical cyclones. The evidence also does not support the IPCC claim of detection and attribution related to tropical cyclones.


Credit: NOAA

Expecting to find ‘the science’ (who owns it?) explaining why a warming climate is able to produce near-record snow, we wade in – but the sub-heading is a let-down: ‘A relentless series of ‘rivers in the sky’ is creating extreme conditions across the state, but a role for climate change is unclear’. Then we read: ‘As the atmosphere warms, atmospheric rivers are likely to become more frequent and hold more moisture, and that will result in heavy downpours of rain and snow.’ The obvious clash of warmth and snow in the same sentence is left for the reader to ponder. They end up saying in effect that the weather is getting more weathery. A self-proclaimed ‘NEWS EXPLAINER’ that can’t explain much, it seems.
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Not again! Earlier this week, California was battered by heavy rain, strong winds and thick snow — the latest in a seemingly unending procession of strong storms, says Nature.

Wild weather has afflicted the previously drought-stricken state for three months, resulting in devastating floods, paralysing blizzards and dozens of deaths.

Data released Thursday show that the snowpack is the biggest on record.

Nature spoke to atmospheric and climate scientists about what’s driving the surge in wet weather and what the state could look like in a warmer future.


Image credit:

They’re calling it “the winter that just doesn’t want to end” as the figures close in on the all-time record for the area. Another atmospheric river is imminent. Records show that ‘several of the snowiest winters logged at least one-fourth of their season total after March 15’.
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No one really knows how much snow fell on the infamous Donner Party when the pioneers were trapped atop the Sierra Nevada for months and dozens died near Lake Tahoe in the winter of 1846-47, says

But this season has now etched its way into the history books as the second snowiest in the 77 years of record-keeping at the Central Sierra Snow Lab—more than 56.4 feet (677 inches, 17.2 meters) with no end in sight.

And there’s still a chance it could surpass the record of 67.7 feet (812 inches, 20.6 meters) set in 1951-52 when more than 200 passengers on a San Francisco-bound luxury train from Chicago were stranded for three days near Donner Pass west of Truckee, California.

Over the weekend, the “winter that just doesn’t want to end” as the National Weather Service in Reno put it, topped the previous No. 2 record of 55.9 feet (671 inches, 17 meters) set in 1982-83.


The world only has one temperature, which must somehow be restrained by human efforts — and lots of money. Or so the endless IPCC reports would have us believe. Keep paying up so the self-styled weather controllers can ‘save the planet’.
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The United Nations was poised to release a capstone report Monday distilling nearly a decade of published science on the impacts and trajectory of global warming, and the tools available to prevent climate catastrophe, says

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 30-odd page “summary for policymakers”—compressing 10,500 pages authored by more than 1,000 scientists—is as dense as a black hole and will deliver a stark warning.

“We are nearing a point of no return,” UN chief Antonio Guterres said last week as diplomats from 195 nations gathered in Interlaken, Switzerland, to hammer out the final wording, finalized on Sunday night by exhausted and sleep-deprived delegates two days behind schedule.

“For decades, the IPCC has put forward evidence on how people and planet are being rocked by climate destruction.”


[image credit:]

Say hello to an umbrella term for outlandish climate intervention schemes, or maybe scams: SRM (solar radiation management).
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Radical climate interventions — like blocking the sun’s rays — could alter the world’s weather patterns, potentially benefiting some regions of the world and harming others, says E&E News.

That possibility, climate scientists say, means any research on such methods must consider those risks and involve the countries that already bear the greatest impacts from a warming planet.

“If you’re actually talking about actively deploying technologies to alter the climate, then you need to engage all of us in the discussion,” said Andrea Hinwood, chief scientist at the United Nations Environment Programme in Nairobi, Kenya. “And that means those who are the most vulnerable to these effects need to be able to have a say.”


Meteorology time. Why the ‘partly’ in the headline? Climate change pokes its nose in at the end of the article, but all that’s offered is uncertainty.
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The “seesaw” is bordered by a high-pressure area west of Portugal and a low-pressure area centred over Iceland.

When the balance changes, so does the weather, says Sky News.

An atmospheric “seesaw” is partly responsible for the snow that much of the UK will likely see this week.


Credit: NBC

Some schools close for the day. Media get excited. Climate spin doctors have work to do.
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Heavy snow fell in southern California on Friday, as the first blizzard in a generation pounded the Los Angeles area, with heavy rains threatening flooding in other places, reports

Breathless television weather presenters more used to delivering a same-every-day forecast of warm sunshine found themselves knee-deep in the white stuff as the region grappled with its worst winter storm for decades.

Major roads were closed as ice and snow made them impassable, including sections of Interstate 5, the main north-south highway that connects Mexico, the United States and Canada.

Authorities said there was no estimate when it would be re-opened.

“Dangerous and potentially life-threatening snow related impacts are likely for mountain, desert, and foothill roadways in southern California,” the National Weather Service (NWS) said.


Scotia Sea, Antarctica [image credit: Antarctic96]

Midsummer in the Antarctic – no picnic.
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Adventurer Jamie Douglas-Hamilton says his latest rowing challenge in the world’s most treacherous waters has left him in the worst pain he has ever felt, reports BBC News.

“I still can’t feel my fingertips and can’t wiggle my toes,” he says.

“I couldn’t even walk to the bathroom from my bed without hanging on to things along the way.”

Jamie was part of a crew of six who battled 30ft (10m) waves, crippling seasickness, icy cold winds and constant terror in Antarctica’s Southern Ocean and Scotia Sea.


Credit: NOAA

Climate modellers claim to be able to prove weather is getting worse than ever before. They seem to have a method problem.
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A recent article at, originally published by the Chicago Tribune, says that climate change is behind the recent atmospheric river events in California, as well as an alleged increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

This is false, says Linnea Lueken @ Climate Change Dispatch.

Atmospheric rivers are a natural part of the West coast’s climate, and neither historic data nor recent trend data indicate that the frequency or severity of those events is increasing.

Likewise, there has been no increase in major hurricanes over the past hundred years of global warming.


Arctic blast brings record cold to the US

Posted: February 5, 2023 by oldbrew in News, Temperature, weather, wind

Ouch! The ‘rapidly warming’ Arctic, as climate alarmists like to claim, can still pack a hefty punch. Weren’t such days supposed to be over, in theory at least?
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Weather authorities say an “epic, generational Arctic outbreak” caused record cold temperatures and life-threatening conditions in the northeastern United States on Saturday, reports

The summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire reported a low of minus 78 Celsius (minus 108 Fahrenheit) — the coldest temperature ever recorded in the United States.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Caribou, Maine, said it received reports of “frostquakes.”


Omega blocking highs can remain in place for several days or even weeks [image credit: UK Met Office]

Bring on the loaded questions, such as ‘How does climate change affect windstorms?’ The BBC casts around for suspects, like La Niña and meandering polar jet streams, but it’s all inconclusive. Are the ‘extreme weather’ climate obsessives feeling deprived?
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By February, the UK would normally have had around three storms given names by the Met Office – just like Arwen, Barra and Callum, says BBC News.

But so far this autumn and winter, there hasn’t been a single one.

Weather patterns have been calmer across the Atlantic and towards northwest Europe. But why?


Leaders posing as controllers of the weather demand impossible to achieve and damaging energy policies. Is this (cartoon) where net zero is taking us? Ignoring the sun won’t work.
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According to the clerics of the Green Cult, once we blow up our last coal mine, send all diesel engines to the wreckers, stop using concrete, reinvent sailing clippers, cover the grasslands and hills with solar clutter and wind machines, and then slaughter all of our cattle… global climate will become serene – not too warm, not too cold, writes Viv Forbes (via Climate Change Dispatch).

Wild weather will cease, and there will be no more droughts, floods, cyclones, or snowstorms and no more plant and animal extinctions.

But the records written in the rocks tell a far different story about climate changes. Even when nature was in full control, it was not a serene place.


Beiji Village in Mohe, China’s northernmost city [image credit :]

The reporter here says it’s ‘so cold it feels uncomfortable in your lungs’ then goes on to speculate on possible/imagined links to global warming aka climate change. ‘Research suggests’…etc. The freezing cold air coming south from Siberia gets billed as an ‘extreme weather event’.
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Mohe is known as China’s North Pole for a good reason, says Sky News.

It is the country’s most northern city and is a very, very cold place.

It’s difficult to describe what temperatures this low feel like.

On Sunday it hit -53C, a new low for the coldest temperature recorded in the country since modern monitoring began.

The National Meteorological Centre confirmed the previous record of -52.3C, set in 1969, had been beaten.


Risky business [image credit:]

York is a notoriously flood-prone place and these wagons under-performed in a big way, restricting themselves to cricketing weather. The costly attempt to help save the planet by adopting net-zero climate dogma thus faltered. The ‘wrong type of weather’ excuse used to refer to UK trains, but now it’s moved on.
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Two electric bin lorries bought by City of York Council in a bid to cut carbon emissions were unable to operate when it rained, it has emerged.

Rain caused the wagons to be taken off the city’s roads for up to 26 days a month several times last year, reports BBC News.

The vehicles stopped working for a combined total of 481 days between January 2021 and November 2022.

The council bought the vehicles in 2020 as part of its drive to achieve net zero emissions by 2030.


Golden Gate Bridge from Fort Point, San Francisco

Such is the natural variability of weather and climate. So it’s all happened before, only worse back then before mass industrialisation and greenhouse gas theories.
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San Francisco has experienced the wettest three-week period since Abraham Lincoln was president during the Great Flood of 1862, says Breitbart News (via Climate Change Dispatch).

The San Jose Mercury News reported Tuesday:

New rainfall totals show that no person alive has ever experienced a three-week period as wet as the past three weeks were in the Bay Area. The last time it happened, Abraham Lincoln was president.