Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca]
Recent data tell a somewhat different story to the one NASA want to put forward. The mean rate of change in September minima reduced to something akin to zero after 2007, maybe even a small (relative to the 1980 peak) rise.
‘Key Takeaway: Summer Arctic sea ice extent is shrinking by 12.6% per decade as a result of global warming’, says NASA.
But their own interactive ‘ANNUAL SEPTEMBER MINIMUM EXTENT’ graph (here) gives the game away. For example:
2007 minimum: 4.07 km. (lowest since 1979, at the time).
2021: 4.72 km.
2022: 4.67 km.
Only two of the last fifteen years (2012, 2020) were lower than 2007, the rest at least the same (2016) or upto 25% above.
Peak decline was from 1996-2007, about one solar cycle (SC 23). Those days seem to have gone, for now at least. The most recent decade did not show a decline anywhere near 12.6%, or even any net decline.
September minima for 2021 and 2022 were both noticeably higher than those of 2011 and 2012, for example.
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NASA: Arctic sea ice minimum ties for tenth lowest
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
[…] From Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]
You must remember they have to keep up the narrative because if they don’t the grants might dry up and the UN Church of Climatology will go bust.
Why does NASA continue to trash it’s reputation for honest science? Are standards of honesty irrelevant in large organisations these days which have allowed themselves to be well infiltrated with covert or otherwise Communist activists.?
It should also be remembered that September minimums in Arctic ice extents are immediately overcome by rapid and extensive refreezing in Oct., Nov. and Dec.
Chart shows average monthly change in ice extents reported by NOAA.
Indeed, the summer minimum Arctic sea-ice extent shows ZERO trend for the past 15 years. What happened to the dire predictions of an ice-free summer Arctic Ocean in the near future made continously since 2007?
2007: “Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
2009: “The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free and open to shipping during the summer in as little as ten years’ time, a top polar specialist has said”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8307272.stm
2012: “Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
In a normal World, these failed predictions would be interpreted as signs of a failed climate theory, but in our World, they bother no one and in fact encourage scientists to come up with more predictions of the same kind based on flawed computer models:
ESA Climate Office (2020): Simulations suggest ice-free Arctic summers by 2050
https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/sea-ice/news-and-events/news/simulations-suggest-ice-free-arctic-summers-2050/
USA Today (2020): Arctic may see ‘ice-free’ summers in as few as 15 years, study says
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/01/arctic-sea-ice-arctic-could-ice-free-summer-few-15-years/4905785002/
CNBC (2022): The Arctic could see ice-free summers by 2035, reshaping global shipping routes
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/arctic-summers-could-be-ice-free-by-2035-enabling-faster-shipping.html
the entire US government top four ranks are corruptocrats all under direct control of the White House. The WH wants our energy and transportation sectors wrecked on orders from whoever out there is the real boss, such was WEF in order to facilitate the big changes they want to make to turn us into some sort of Middle Ages version of lifestyle and government – serfs and royals.
Just keep that goal in mind and go back and review what has been happening. This is The Fall Of The Roman Empire V2.0.
Whenever a report says something like ‘Arctic expert predicts’, embarrassing nonsense usually follows.
@oldbrew,
Yes, that’s true, and we saw it with COVID “experts” as well… 🙂
[…] Is NASA’s ‘Key Takeaway’ on Arctic summer sea ice minima obsolete? […]
WRITTEN BY JOHN DEE ON DEC 27, 2022
The Myth Of The So-Called Arctic Death Spiral
We may conclude that Santa alternates between being hot and cold every few decades and that the Arctic steadily loses and then gains ice mass, much like his belly shakes like a bowlful of jelly.
This pattern will continue regardless of political shenanigans, ostentatious virtue signaling from the woke, and academic posturing from the grant-laden undead.
https://climatechangedispatch.com/the-myth-of-the-so-called-arctic-death-spiral/
The word “expert” today belongs into the four-letter-word category!
A simple sum – four decades and a bit of warming at 12.5% per decade means a total of close to 50%.
Has it declined by 50%? No.
So it’s wrong.
Phoenix – it’s not quite that simple. If you multiply 100 by 0.875 then multiply the result by 0.875, after four ’rounds’ you have 58.6~ which is roughly correct on their graph, e.g. 7*0.586 = 4.1 million sq.km.
However, the rate of change isn’t constant, which their percent figure glosses over. Most of the decline from the 1980 peak occurred within the first three decades. We could also question what the figures were for the previous few decades before 1980 🤔
Oldbrew – yes, I understand its 12.5% of a declining amount, but to me 58% is close to 50%! The calculation is utter nonsense though as the maximum varies each year. As with all these averages and trends, I’m unconvinced they are calculating an actual reality. A low minimum followed by a low maximum followed by a low minimum isn’t the same as low minimum followed by a high maximum followed by a low minimum. Once you have lost sea ice it stays lost until its recovered. That’s not a trend! The simplistic analysis of complex data by these “scientists” is quite shameful.
“The simplistic analysis of complex data by these “scientists” is quite shameful.”
Couldn’t agree more!
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.