Willie Soon, Ronan Connolly & Michael Connolly have reviewed the ongoing solar variability debate, constructed and assessed a new Northern Hemisphere rural temperature trend and find a close match with the Scafetta & Wilson update to the Hoyte & Schatten TSI reconstruction.
Archive for the ‘Dataset’ Category
Re-valuating the role of solar variability on the Norhern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th centuryPosted: September 4, 2015 by Andrew in climate, Dataset
This result has been at least half-expected ever since the ‘revision’ of sunspot numbers was announced. The phrase ‘desired outcome’ springs to mind.
The Sunspot Number is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change, reports Phys.org. It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries. The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity.
The analysis, its results and its implications for climate research were made public today at a press briefing at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) XXIX General Assembly, currently taking place in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA.
Tags: Global Warming
The longer the so-called pause – the new normal? – goes on, the more popular ‘cooling the past’ becomes with state-funded organisations like the Met Office. Check the satellite records.
I’ll give the Met Office / Hadley / CRU some due, at least there are signs of actual data.
What-if a list of the dataset grid cells with data from the start Jan 1850 to current is computed? Where are these and what does the data look like?
Figure 1, A fragment in time of the entire consistent Hadcrut 4 gridded data, weighted data as per computing a global mean.
This suggests the reputed bad winters during WWII. Computing the global equivalent would need the weighted mean completing, sum and then divide by the sum of weights. Unweighted (not shown) is similar except the winter 1944 has a hot peak, ie. largely a polar matter. There again without global data is any of this valid?
Tags: Antarctic, arctic
These Antarctic headlines are becoming almost routine, but still worth noting in view of all the propaganda telling us the world is supposed to be warming.
This is a comparison of data for the month of May only, stretching back to 1979. In the files linked at the end of the reportingclimatescience.com report (see ‘Source’ in original), there are separate figures for ‘extent’ and ‘area’, with an explanation of the difference (see Arctic file).
The lowest May figures (since 1979) for both polar regions were recorded in 2006, but the Antarctic was 12% above the long-term May average this year.
Gerry Pease has sent us a solar cycle 24 update:
It’s all downhill now for solar cycle 24. Cycle 24 Max (smoothed sunspot number 81.9) appears to have occurred in April, 2014:
Cycle 23 Solar Max (smoothed sunspot number 120) was in early 2000:
Note the progression from cycle 21 to 24:
Similar cycles 12, 14, and 16 had lower peaks than cycle 24, and similar cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, and 16 all had earlier peaks:
Smoothed solar activity since April is projected to be successively lower each month.
The UK Met Office / Hadley Centre (Met Office) / Climatic Research Unit (UEA) construct and publish global time series for temperature based on published 5 degree gridded. How this is derived from land meteorological station readings and ship board for sea surface temperature is unclear. The gridded to eg. global is a simple (cosine) weighted average which takes into account the variable area of a linear grid representing a sphere.
I have put together maps showing the data counts for decades over a world shore outline. These are provided as vector plots (master work), PDF, or for casual looks, PNG. The results are disturbing and particularly in the light of the Met Office producing 100 different versions of HadSST3. “Each of the following files is a zip archive containing ten realisations of the HadSST3 data set. There are 100 realisations in total.”
Do I detect obfuscation, flapping for distraction?
[update] Roger Andrews has pointed out this work ought to use HadSST2, my mistake. I’m not sure what to do about this, updating the files is not too difficult but is there a material difference? I’ve created new files and am looking at introducing the hadcrut4 data.[update]
El Niño and its twin La Niña are under the spotlight this year as climate-watchers hunt for signs of expected activity that seems to have gone largely missing in recent years if compared to, say, the 1990s.
Has the strength of these phenomena changed in modern times? Apparently not.
‘The charts created by the research team suggest that the ENSO cycle does not have a predictable cycle and also that it has not been increasing in strength over the course of the Holocene as others have suggested.’
Tags: co2 emissions, fossil fuel
Guest post from Ed Hoskins MAarch (Cantab) BDS (Lond).
The record of recent Man-made CO2 emissions: 1965 -2013
The following calculations and graphics are based on information on national CO2 emission levels worldwide published by BPin June 2014 for the period from 1965 up until 2013. The data is well corroborated by previous similar datasets published by the CDIAC, Guardian  and Google up until 2009 . These notes and figures provide a short commentary on that CO2 emissions history.
The contrast between the developed and developing worlds is stark in terms of their history of CO2 emissions and the likely prognosis for their future CO2 output.
Since 1980 CO2 emissions from the developed world have shown virtually no increase, whereas the developing world has had a fourfold increase since 1980: that increase is accelerating.
Brandon’s take on the temperature record debacle
Originally posted on Izuru:
There has been a lot of hoopla about supposed problems in the surface temperature record recently. Unfortunately, a lot of people don’t seem to understand what the hoopla is actually about. I think the problem is people have focused too much on rhetoric and too little on actual information. I’d like to try to reverse that.
View original 1,359 more words
From Ian Wilson’s Astro-Climate Connection blog:
The Moon’s orbit is tilted by approximately five degrees compared to the Earth-Sun plane. The net affect of this is that the strength of Lunar-tides at a given latitude on the Earth’s surface vary in strength over a cycle of 18.6 years. This 18.6 year Draconic cycle is also clearly evident in the small changes that take place in the rate of rotation of the Earth.
On Saturday My lady and I travelled with friends Ian and Susan down the Scott Polar Research Institute to a talk given by Rich Pancost, the professor at the head of the Cabot Institute at the University of Bristol. This outfit is comprised of a small team which co-ordinates cross disciplinary effort from other faculties at the University to help address the university’s ‘two big themes’ of environment and health.
My thanks to Tony Thomas for giving the talkshop the exclusive of his take on this breaking news item:
Gergis findings re-surface – the Hockey Stick lives!
By Tony Thomas 31-03-2014
These are the conclusions of a multi-proxy 1000-year climate reconstruction published today (March 31) in Nature Climate Change, by Dr Raphael Neukom of the Oeschger Centre at the University of Bern, and Dr Joelle Gergis of the University of Melbourne.
Dr Neukom summed up for a University of Melbourne press release:
The study showed the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, as identified in some European chronicles, was a regional phenomenon.
During the same period, temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were only average. Our study revealed it was not a common climate event that many people have previously assumed.
The paper claims that in 99.7 percent of the results, the warmest decade of the millennium occurred after 1970.
The press release says,“And surprisingly, only twice over the entire past millennium have both hemispheres simultaneously shown extreme temperatures.
One of these occasions was a global cold period in the 17th century; the other was the current warming phase”.”
H/T to Gerry Pease for alerting me to this paper from last year by Steinhilber and Beer which lays out a solar prediction from their analysis of their reconstruction of solar activity from proxy data.
Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years
Friedhelm Steinhilber1 and Jürg Beer1
Received 18 May 2012; revised 18 February 2013; accepted 2 March 2013.
Recently, a new low-noise record of solar activity has been reconstructed for the past 9400 years by combining two 10Be records from Greenland and Antarctica with 14C fromtree rings [Steinhilber et al., 2012]. This record confirms earlier results, namely, that the Sun has varied with distinct periodicities in the past. We present a prediction of mean solar magnetic activity averaged over 22 years for the next 500 years mainly based on the spectral information derived from the solar activity record of the past. Assuming that the Sun will continue to vary with the same periodicities for the next centuries, we extract the spectral information from the past and apply it to two different methods to predict the future of solar magnetic activity.
This’ll keep Oldbrew and me busy with the calculators for a while. :)
NASA’s Kepler mission announced Wednesday the discovery of 715 new planets. These newly-verified worlds orbit 305 stars, revealing multiple-planet systems much like our own solar system.
Nearly 95 percent of these planets are smaller than Neptune, which is almost four times the size of Earth. This discovery marks a significant increase in the number of known small-sized planets more akin to Earth than previously identified exoplanets, which are planets outside our solar system.
The Kepler team continues to amaze and excite us with their planet hunting results. That these new planets and solar systems look somewhat like our own, portends a great future when we have the James Webb Space Telescope in space to characterize the new worlds.
Scafetta and Willson: “the ACRIM composite as the most likely and precise representation of 35 years of TSI monitoring”Posted: February 21, 2014 by tallbloke in Analysis, Astrophysics, Dataset, Measurement, methodology, Natural Variation, Solar physics, Uncertainty
Tags: ACRIM, Frohlich, IPCC, PMOD, Svalgaard, TSI, Watts
Nicola Scafetta and Richard Willson have a new paper in press which contains the most thorough analysis yet of the intercomparison of the empirical ACRIM and modeled PMOD TSI series. It’s a comprehensive yet readable paper of high interest to all diligent climate researchers interested in determining the relative strengths of various climate drivers. It is also an important historical document for philosophers of science investigating the shift from observation based empirical solar science to model based dogma underpinning preconceptions of the power of trace gases to control Earth’s surface temperature. The IPCC and Team Wassup’s Leif Svalgaard are not going to like it, and will therefore try to ignore it, thus further underminng their credibility.
ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models
Nicola Scafetta & Richard C. Willson
From the paper:
PMOD TSI composite (Fröhlich and Lean 1998; Fröhlich 2004, 2006, 2012) is essentially a theoretical model originally designed to agree with Lean’s TSI proxy model (Fröhlich and Lean 1998). It relies on postulated but experimentally unverified drifts in the ERB record during the ACRIM Gap,and other alterations of the published ERB and ACRIM results, that are not recognized by their original experimental teams and have not been verified by the PMOD by original computations using ERB or ACRIM1 data.
Brilliant Czech researcher P.A. Semi has sent us the fruits of some considerable labour, which he has asked us to share with the Solar-planetary community. Since the venue at Pattern Recognition in Physics was axed by Copernicus (The Innovative Science un-PublisherTM), he says he is not sure where to get this published, so the Talkshop it is for now. I will also add it to the repository I am building at ‘Solar System Science’, a new venture I’m setting up in collaboration with other researchers. Tim Channon will be interested in working with the dataset which can be generated from the resources Semi has provided, and I’m sure others will be too. Here’s a sample of the output:
Hello Tallbloke and others.
I’ve produced the Synoptic map of Sunspots 1874-2012 and Interpolated Sunspot Area, that allows to investigate sunspot record without smoothing, while removing the 27-day false signal of single-face problem another way – by interpolating individual Sunspot groups: if they can be matched on the next rotation, they are linearly interpolated to the new position and size, if they are not matched, they are interpolated in 17 days linearly to zero. This way, the far-side Sunspots are interpolated and the record does not need the usual monthly smoothing, that wipes away precise timings. (There still exists some single-face problem – the Sunspots, appearing on the far side first, are delayed until they get to the front side, and the 17-day fade-out makes a typical fade-out curves in the chart, but still better than if the group disappeared abruptly on the limb…)
Nicola Scafetta and Richard Willson: New paper linking short term solar variation with planetary periodsPosted: November 25, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, Astronomy, Astrophysics, Celestial Mechanics, Dataset, Solar physics, solar system dynamics
Multiscale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its nonlinear dependence on the 11 yr solar cycle.
From the ‘Not as bad as we theorised’ department, a paper which finds that models of water cycling in rainforest over-estimated the effect of drought by a big factor. The paper is paywalled, but there’s a write up here which summarises. Worth noting that the paper emphasises this natural resilience operates best in undisturbed forest.
Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
Impact of evapotranspiration on dry season climate in the Amazon forest
College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, UK, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
Ian T. Baker, A. Scott Denning, David A. Randall, Donald Dazlich, and Mark Branson
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
Moisture recycling can be an important source of rainfall over the Amazon forest, but this process relies heavily upon the ability of plants to access soil moisture. Evapotranspiration (ET) in the Amazon is often maintained or even enhanced during the dry season, when net radiation is high. However, ecosystem models often over predict the dry season water stress. We removed unrealistic water stress in an ecosystem model (the Simple Biosphere model, SiB3), and examined impacts of enhanced ET on the dry season climate when coupled to a GCM. The “Stressed” model experiences dry season water stress and limitations on ET, while the “Unstressed” model has enhanced root water access and exhibits strong drought tolerance.