MET-Office update: There is no update.

Posted: February 5, 2019 by tallbloke in climate, data, Dataset, Forecasting, humour, MET office, methodology
In the meantime, here’s how the 2016-2021 forecast (in blue) is doing compared to the latest data (red trace).

Last year, I wrote a short post entitled Met-Office invents infallible climate prediction method, in which I showed how the MET-Office would always update their ‘decadal’ (actually semi-decadal) climate prediction before the data caught up with them.

At the time, they were promising to update their prediction in January of this year. But they haven’t, despite describing themselves as “WMO Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction“. So instead, I’ve done a retrospective update of the data on their 2016 to 2021″decadal” prediction.

Oh. Dear. That hasn’t aged well has it?

Looking at the median value in the blue envelope at the current date, the MET-O has missed by around 0.35C. This is not a good result for the MET-O climate model. Why might it be running so hot?

We think it could be that the met-O’s climatologists have been fixating on carbon dioxide and the alleged ‘enhanced greenhouse effect’ our emissions are supposed to be creating, and have ignored the Sun. We’re currently heading into a deep solar minimum, and the indications are that the excess energy built up in the oceans during the late C20th grand solar maximum is starting to run low.

Don’t sell your coat.

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Has Tallbloke scared them off? Maybe they’ve gone a bit shy 😃

    Re ‘Data to 2019 added by TB’ – is their confidence % level drooping as well?

  2. ilma630 says:

    Keep up the great work Rog.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Looking closely, this one (HADCRUT) shows the 2018 red line ~0.1C lower than 2017 and 2016.

  4. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    Feynman : It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
    MetO : “They’re just projections!!”

  5. stpaulchuck says:

    Even with their thumb on the temperature measurement scales we still get a massive divergence in their idiot computer models to reality. Gee, I wonder why no one saw that coming. Oh! wait…

  6. The Met Office have now posted their graph.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2019/forecast-suggests-earths-warmest-period

    They seem to have conveniently omitted their forecast that you show here. Which Met Office web page did your picture come from?

  7. Sorry, answering my own question, the graph you show here comes from this Met Office web page

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc/decadal-forecast-2016

    The Met Office seem to be trying to hide the failure of this forecast.

  8. oldbrew says:

    They don’t seem to have noticed the temp fall in 2018…

    Climate change: World heading for warmest decade, says Met Office
    2 hours ago

    How confident is the Met Office of its prediction?
    The Met Office says it has a 90% confidence limit in the forecasts for the years ahead.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47144058

  9. […] Rog Tallbloke, who produced his own graph yesterday showing the mismatch between the Met Office forecast and the observations, before the […]

  10. They need an El Nino, again, to save their bacon. Nature is catching them out now.

  11. We really have warmed up nicely since 1816. And the recent grand solar maximum seems to have helped.

  12. Marinos Yannikos says:

    Apparently they also changed the reference period from 1981-2010 to 1850-1900 so the Y axis looks more dramatic…

  13. oldbrew says:

    More stats creativity could be needed if/when temps slip further as the sun goes into quiet mode for a while.

  14. tallbloke says:

    Marinos, yes. I noted that in my previous post about the MET-O ‘decadal’ prediction.
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2018/10/11/met-office-invents-infallible-climate-prediction-method/

  15. oldbrew says:

    NASA claims melting sea ice raises sea levels 😂
    https://realclimatescience.com/2019/02/basic-physics-at-nasa/

    It might do very slightly, but no scare.
    https://phys.org/news/2005-08-ice-sea.html

  16. Malcolm Bell says:

    Will any of these people bet their pensions that they are right? They should because if they are wrong and we have destroyed industry to prevent high CO2 they will have ruined the living standards and pension opportunity for millions of others needlessly.

  17. jack broughton says:

    Do not the comments on this page show that many of the amateur commentators appreciate climate better than the met office wallies? Oldbrew’s graph shows the correct period for anomolies rather than one that shows what they want to show. It throws up the old question about what happened between 1910 and 1940 and why did temperatures stop rising between 1940 and 1980.

    So far I have not been able to see who sets the arbitrary confidence limits to most of the information that is bandied about: more climate fiction to make the pretend science seem real!

  18. oldbrew says:

    Collapsing ice cliffs may not contribute to sea level rise
    A new study questions a controversial hypothesis suggesting such rapid crumbling could occur
    BY CAROLYN GRAMLING 3:26PM, FEBRUARY 6, 2019

    Sea level rise over the next century won’t get a feared boost from Antarctic ice cliffs crumbling into the ocean like dominoes, a new study suggests.

    The finding, published February 7 in Nature, is based on a new statistical analysis showing that such a rapid collapse of marine ice cliffs in Antarctica was extremely unlikely to have happened in the past, even during some of Earth’s warmest episodes over the last 3 million years.

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ice-sheets-collapse-sea-level-rise-climate-change
    – – –
    some of Earth’s warmest episodes over the last 3 million years – which by definition were not due to human activity.

  19. oldbrew says:

    Wild Winter Temperature Swings

    The bitter cold that gripped the middle and eastern portion of the United States in late January 2019 is gone. Unseasonably warm air arrived in early February, sending temperatures soaring to record daily highs in some eastern cities.
    . . .
    Measurements reported by the National Weather Service show that the daily high temperature in Boston jumped 26°C (47°F) between January 29 and February 5. New York and Washington D.C. warmed by about 27°C. The warm weather pattern was expected to continue through most of the week, before cooling to near average for the time of year.

    Meanwhile, parts of the U.S. west saw temperatures drop—cold enough for precipitation from a series of storms to fall as snow in many areas, including an unusual dusting of white on peaks in the San Francisco Bay Area and vineyards in Napa Valley.

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144516/wild-winter-temperature-swings

  20. craigm350 says:

  21. craigm350 says:

    Betts pointed to this :

  22. oldbrew says:

    Betts has joined the discussion at Cliscep.com:
    https://cliscep.com/2019/02/06/met-office-try-to-hide-forecast-fail/#comment-33358

    Who really cares about being ‘above 1850-1900’? Recovery from the Little Ice Age is a slow process, as we saw recently (Jan. 2019)…

    The bottom of Pacific Ocean getting colder, possibly due to Little Ice Age
    Historical cooling periods are still playing out in the deep Pacific.

    https://www.techexplorist.com/bottom-pacific-ocean-getting-colder-possibly-little-ice-age/19904/

  23. oldbrew says:

    Latest GWPF critique of MetO long-range forecasting.

    WORLD COOLING – BUT RAPID WARMING FORECAST
    Date: 07/02/19 Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor

    Average global temperature has been falling for the last 3 years, despite rising atmospheric CO2 levels.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/world-cooling-but-rapid-warming-forecast/

  24. oldbrew says:

    SOI 30-day average index took quite a dive in January, now hovering around the zero mark.

    Latest Southern Oscillation Index graph here (updated daily)
    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

  25. oldbrew says:

    Accoprding to Javier: ‘The planet is no longer warming’

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/02/06/the-planet-is-no-longer-warming/

    Figure 4. Zoom of the HadCRUT 4 rate of temperature change (°C/year). The best fit polynomial (black line) shows the long-term evolution in the rate of temperature change.
    – – –
    [i.e. NOT the temperature itself]

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