Satellite Temperature Data Show Almost All Climate Model Forecasts Over the Last 40 Years Were Wrong

Posted: October 9, 2022 by oldbrew in climate, Critique, Forecasting, modelling, Natural Variation, research, satellites, Temperature, Uncertainty
Tags: ,

Image credit: livescience.com


Maybe a climate model with no ‘ECS’ factor could do better? But anything that smacks of natural variation inevitably faces resistance from climate alarm promoters.
– – –
A major survey into the accuracy of climate models has found that almost all the past temperature forecasts between 1980-2021 were excessive compared with accurate satellite measurements, says the Daily Sceptic.

The findings were recently published by Professor Nicola Scafetta, a physicist from the University of Naples. He attributes the inaccuracies to a limited understanding of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the number of degrees centigrade the Earth’s temperature will rise with a doubling of carbon dioxide.

Scientists have spent decades trying to find an accurate ECS number, to no avail.

Current estimates range from 0.5°C to around 6-7°C. Without knowing this vital figure, the so-called ‘settled’ science narrative around human-caused climate change remains a largely political invention, not a credible scientific proposition.

Professor Scafetta has conducted extensive work into climate models and is a long-time critic of their results and forecasts. In a previous work, he said many of the climate models should be “dismissed and not used by policymakers”. Along with around 250 professors, he is a signatory to the World Climate Declaration which states there is no climate emergency and also notes climate models are “not remotely plausible as global tools”.

Scafetta’s latest work grouped 38 major climate models into low, medium and high ECS values, ranging between 1.8°C and 5.7°C. He found that models in the medium and high category “ran hot” in over 95% and 97% of cases respectively.

The lower models were said to have done better when compared to global warming calculated for the period by the major surface datasets of 0.52-0.58°C. But the UAH satellite data showed warming up to 30% less during this period, suggesting even the low warming models produced “excessive warming” from 1980-2021.

According to Scafetta, these results are showed that the ECS figure could be as low as 1.2-2°C. Particular concern is expressed about surface temperature records that “appear to be severely affected by non-climatic warming biases”.

Scafetta concludes that surface-based temperature records are likely to be affected by warming biases, such as the urban heat island effect due to expanding urban development, and subject to natural oscillations that are not reproduced by climate models. He concludes: “The global warming expected for the next few decades may be even more moderate than predicted by the low ECS-GCMs [Global Circulation Models], and could easily fall within a safe temperature range where climate adaptation policies will suffice.”

Scafetta’s work is vital in providing a realistic insight into the dominant role played by climate models in promoting the command-and-control Net Zero political agenda. Many of the constantly promoted climate thermogeddon scares use forecasts based on high ECS values.

The higher values are behind every statement from bureaucrats, politicians, green activists and journalists that we are heading for a 2-3°C increase in global temperature in the near future. In the absence of any definitive ECS figure, these predictions are guesses.

In fact, once the ECS figure falls to around 1°C, it is moving into margin of error territory. However, many scientists have more or less given up trying to calculate ECS, since measuring the non-linear atmosphere is proving as difficult as it ever was.

Full article here.
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From the Conclusions section of Prof. Scafetta’s paper:

‘Furthermore, as surface-based temperature records are likely affected by warming biases and are characterized by natural oscillations that are not reproduced by the CMIP6 models, the global warming expected for the next few decades may be even more moderate than predicted by the low-ECS GCMs and could easily fall within a safe temperature range where climate adaptation policies will suffice. Therefore, aggressive mitigation policies aimed at rapidly and drastically reducing GHG emissions in order to avoid a too rapid rise in temperature do not seem justifed, also because their costs seem to outweigh any realistic benefts (cf. Bezdek et al. 2019).’

Comments
  1. […] Satellite Temperature Data Show Almost All Climate Model Forecasts Over the Last 40 Years Were Wrong… […]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Scafetta: ‘In fact, the performance of the models seems to increase as the ECS decreases’.

  3. This was written:
    Scientists have spent decades trying to find an accurate ECS number, to no avail. Current estimates range from 0.5°C to around 6-7°C. Without knowing this vital figure, the so-called ‘settled’ science narrative around human-caused climate change remains a largely political invention, not a credible scientific proposition.

    My comments:
    From 300 to 400 PPM of CO2 added One Molecule of CO2 to Ten Thousand Molecules of Atmosphere.
    This means that People, CANNOT in any way, call them Scientists, 1 divided by 10,000 is = to 0.0001
    That means that the “so called scientists” have spent decades studying nothing.
    In the meantime, whatever caused natural climate change before man-made CO2, has not been studied, or even considered.

    Climate has changed in natural alternating, warmer and colder cycles, in all the history and data that is available, going back fifty million years and before that there were big, longer-term changes with alternating warmer and colder cycles. I would like to post more about the natural cycles, especially the knowledge ice core records provide. We have records from Antarctica that go back four hundred thousand years, covering the last four, largest, major 30 or 40 thousand year warm times and major 100 thousand year ice ages that followed and the 10 thousand year warming into the modern 10 thousand years of wonderful, smaller, alternating warm and cold periods. We also have records from Greenland documenting the last major ice age cold period and the time since. The similarities and differences in the Antarctic and Greenland ice core records are full of knowledge that explains alternating warmer and colder periods. That is what I have studied and what I write and talk about.

  4. JB says:

    Refreshing and rational.
    I’m always interested in Scafetta’s observations and conclusions.

  5. catweazle666 says:

    “The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.”
    – Prof. Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

  6. pochas94 says:

    If I am right, nature will soon teach that the best estimate of the effect of CO2 on climate is zero.

  7. stpaulchuck says:

    “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” – IPCC TAR WG1, Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

  8. In the most recent ten thousand years, Greenland and Antarctica Ice Core Records show alternating warmer and colder cycles, with alternating more snowfall and ice sequestering on Greenland and Antarctica in warmer times that are always followed by colder times with little snowfall and little ice sequestering on Greenland and Antarctica in the colder times that are always followed by warmer times and the cycles continue today.

  9. Climate repeats alternating warmer and colder time periods, that is not any kind of chaotic, the upper and lower bounds of temperature are well constrained, based on actual data, that is not any kind of chaotic.

  10. When people do not study and understand history and data, they declare things to be chaotic, rather than just admitting they have not studied the topic enough to understand.

  11. […] Satellite Temperature Data Show Almost All Climate Model Forecasts Over the Last 40 Years Were Wrong […]

  12. gbaikie says:

    More than 90% of global warming is warming our cold ocean.
    Our cold ocean has average temperature of about 3.5 C.
    There is thousand times more heat content of this cold ocean
    as compared to the atmosphere and take a long time to cool or
    warm.
    Our ocean has been about 3.5 C for many thousands of years.
    Our interglacial period is called the Holocene, and it has been colder
    than past interglacial periods. In last interglacial period which called Eemian
    interglacial period, it’s warmest times [lasting for thousands of years] global
    temperature was higher, sea levels were higher, and average temperature of
    the ocean was 4 C or warmer,
    The earlier part of our Holocene sea levels were about 1 to 2 meters higher and
    the Sahara desert was not the desert it is today.
    All past interglacial when they were warmest had Sahara Desert much wetter than our current Sahara Desert.
    All interglacial period start with abrupt warming and thousands of years of warmer conditions for many thousands of years and then gradually cooling over thousands and tens of thousands of years. And Holocene has gradually cooling for about 5000 years. This is known, but some people think higher CO2 level will prevent our cooling
    but there doesn’t seem to be any evident of that happening.

  13. Warming is from solar energy stored in oceans, many people do know this.
    There is much cooling from sequestered ice in ice sheets and ice shelves and glaciers with ice thawing that causes cooling. Ice is not considered in Consensus Theory, not in Consensus Models, not in Consensus Energy Balance. They will never have valid theory or model output without properly considering ICE.

  14. gbaikie says:

    –popesclimatetheory says:
    October 10, 2022 at 5:03 am

    Warming is from solar energy stored in oceans, many people do know this.
    There is much cooling from sequestered ice in ice sheets and ice shelves and glaciers with ice thawing that causes cooling. Ice is not considered in Consensus Theory, not in Consensus Models, not in Consensus Energy Balance. They will never have valid theory or model output without properly considering ICE.-

    Well polar sea ice causes the ocean to not warm land areas- but without this heat loss,
    the ocean warms up slowly.
    Simple rule, ocean warms, land cools.
    If our ocean was 4 C, it cause there to ice free arctic summer polar sea ice- arctic ocean as liquid warms arctic land. Of course is causing the more heat to lost from Ocean, but it takes long time to cool the ocean and rather small portion of world, but 4 C ocean would keep both poles warming for centuries.
    So glacial periods have a lot more polar sea ice and a lot less heat loss from the ocean. And glacial period can warmer and colder, then one has “the stars align” in terms of Milankovitch cycles and warmed ocean causes massive global warming.
    And takes thousands of years to cool the ocean down to our current average temperature of 3.5 C.
    Or most interglacial periods are warmer with average temperature of 4 C or ,more
    and things like sea levels 4 to 9 meter higher. Holocene appears to maybe had ocean close to 4 C and only have sea level 1 to 2 meter higher than now.

  15. pochas94 says:

    gbaike: “Simple rule, ocean warms, land cools.”

    Here’s another: Land temperatures are in quadrature with ocean temperatures.

  16. gbaikie says:

    Yes there is more ocean surface than land surface and therefore the average ocean surface of about 17 C which covers 70% of surface controls global temperature and though land surfaces heat up faster, they cool down quicker. Therefore the average global land which averages 10 C, would have a cooler average temperature if not warmed by higher global temperature caused by warmer ocean surface.

  17. stpaulchuck says:

    popesclimatetheory says: October 9, 2022 at 10:26 pm

    apparently you are confusing observational opinions of “chaotic” with my post (and others) of Chaos Theory terms. Earth’s temperature changes are stochastic in nature much like stock market prices. They tend to terminate in the area of two Strange Attractors – hot and cold. Grab an eBook on Chaos Theory, you might enjoy it.

    In the meantime, my quote is entirely correct. It is a mathematical description of the data over time, not an observational opinion.

  18. catweazle666 says:

    “Grab an eBook on Chaos Theory, you might enjoy it.”

    May I recommend:

    Click to access James%20Gleick%20-%20Chaos.%20Making%20a%20new%20science.pdf

    Very informative.

  19. oldbrew says:

    Rattle the cage and the opposition chimes in…

    Scafetta comes back for more
    10 OCT 2022 BY GAVIN

    A new paper from Scafetta and it’s almost as bad as the last one.
    . . .
    To be clear, there are real issues with the CMIP6 ensemble. Some of the high ECS models (ECS > 5ºC) are incompatible with recent trends and it does make sense to screen them out (or down-weight them) in near-term transient predictions (Hausfather et al, 2022).
    . . .
    These two papers should become object lessons in how not to compare models with observations which, ironically, might make them relatively well cited.

    https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/10/scafetta-comes-back-for-more/
    – – –
    They were never going to take kindly to any critique.

  20. catweazle666 says:

    Schmitt and Hausfather…triggered!

    Perhaps this is a good time to revisit the IPCC’s pronouncement on the subject of computer games – er sorry, “climate models”:

    “In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

    So stated the IPCC’s Working Group I: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report (TAR), Chapter 14 (final para., 14.2.2.2), p774.

  21. oldbrew says:

    One more time…Scafetta: ‘In fact, the performance of the models seems to increase as the ECS decreases’.

    More discussion here…

    CMIP6 GCMs versus global surface temperatures: ECS discussion
    Posted on September 25, 2022
    by Nicola Scafetta

    https://judithcurry.com/2022/09/25/cmip6-gcms-versus-global-surface-temperatures-ecs-discussion/

  22. oldbrew says:

    50-Year U.S. Summer Temperature Trends: ALL 36 Climate Models Are Too Warm
    October 20th, 2022 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    The importance of this finding should be obvious: Given that U.S. energy policy depends upon the predictions from these models, their tendency to produce too much warming (and likely also warming-associated climate change) should be factored into energy policy planning. I doubt that it is, given the climate change exaggerations routinely promoted by environment groups, anti-oil advocates, the media, politicians, and most government agencies.

    https://www.drroyspencer.com/2022/10/50-year-u-s-summer-temperature-trends-all-36-climate-models-are-too-warm/
    – – –
    Something to do with relying on a greenhouse theory of climate perhaps?

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