NOTICE: This post is wrong, wrong plot, read and then link at bottom to corrected new post. Oops.
What they have not spotted might not have been realised is this… and might account for a magnetic blip
Figure 1, classic polar field. Wilcox Observatory
Centre trace is touching zero, magnetic reversal. (data used by Wilcox is here)
Figure 6 from earlier post
See earlier on Tallbloke’s Solar cycle 24 is close to peak
This post is wrong, see corrected post here.
I ought to replot etc., quick post. [strike out on clumsy wording, didn’t meant to use the derogatory “they”, fortunately no complaints — Tim]
Post by Tim Channon
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Only heretics and astrologers are allowed to think outside the consensus!! 8>)
Solar max comes around about a year after the polar fields reversal. Polar fields not only have not reversed but for the last 12 months have been heading in the wrong direction:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
Hi Vuk, yes, odd isn’t it? I see this as one of the indications that the Sun has entered one of it’s ‘abnormal’ phases. The correlation coefficient between your solar polar formula and the empirical data is suffering as a result!
The prediction I made last year was that there would be a long low plateau at the top of this cycle, and that to pick some tiny bump on it to define ‘solar max’ would be kind of missing the point…
Nice graphing work Tim!
Tim, could you show us the N & S polar fields separately?
Click for original
Click for original
South delay.
Two distinct solar maxima ?
SC23 two humps.
The key point in May 2012 .. ?
Remember….
Click to access kgeorgieva-pulkovo2009-1.pdf
Thanks Michele,
So the north polar field did briefly cross the zero line in early 2011 and the south came pretty close.
I wonder if that brief crossing ‘triggered’ something. I guess we’ll know more in couple of years.
The north and south data is heavily polluted by the fixed aperture view from earth, the annual bobbing up and down of the solar view caused by the earth having a tilted axis.
The data is modulated by one year, a lovely example of a product. (data x orbital)
There is a snag. The sum of north and south mostly cancels out the problem but there is impurity which makes computing a correction for north or south individually not good enough. I did consider posting about this a little while ago, quite interesting. Not worth it unless I can figure out an exact correction.
(might add in the spectra later, was horribly cold last night hence clumsy post, still not with it)
[NOTICE plot added to comments on the next article on this site]
Here a close up of the cycle 24 maximum: (back in June)
http://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/daily-tpod/
See also: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/then-and-now-discourse-with-the-doctor/
As seen in Vuk´s extrapolation cycle 24 second hump would be near the end of 2012:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
…..perhaps on December 21st ? 🙂
Tallbloke,
Could you please provide more perspective on solar cycle 24 and the transition into cycle 25. Do you agree with with Livingston and Penn? What do you think is the significance of solar magnetic Ap fall? Must be interesting times for you?
Thank you,
Garry
Hi Gary and welcome.
Yes, exciting times for all who are interested in solar activity. Cycle 24 has been pretty much as expected by myself and some other planetary theorists; low, erratic and unpredictable going forward.
Leif Svalgaard also predicted fairly low amplitude for this cycle back in 2006 using his solar polar fields method.
It’s very tricky to predict what will happen with the rest of this cycle, or when it will end, and how long the minimum might be before cycle 25 gets going, if it does anything much at all.
L&P may or may not be right. It’s not easy to interpret the data in the way Leif Svalgaard has chosen to present it. Vuk might chime in on that.
Different picture if you plot the 20nHz filtered values to eliminate the projection effect [see Tim’s entry above]:
To quote Leif some time ago (sorry link and date lost):
[proof the modulation is there is this https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/polar-field-spectra-1.png — Tim]
For now I’m assuming it still hasn’t (since neither N or S seems to have actually reached zero and N is currently heading the other way). Perhaps we’ll see another little N-S loop as in 1981 and 2001/2 but with greater amplitude. However, the tail end of the WSO plot suggests the yearly modulation has weakened in the last 6 months:
[Wanted: Dates when each of the gas giants cross[ed] the invariable plane from 1583 – 2100.]
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Hi AJB and thanks for the apposite quote from Dr Svalgaard. He knows his onions when it comes to the polar fields. So the apparent field-crossing-zero is likely an apparent effect due to angle of view?
Thanks too for the dates of the maxima of the solar inclination towards Earth. I got that information from Leif myself a couple of years back but had lost it in a lappy drive calamity. Regarding your data request, this should be derivable from the jpl ephemeris I think. If you are interested for the same reason I am in ‘z’axis motion then you might want to consider the zero crossings of the outer planets wrt the solar equator as well.
Please let us know how you are getting on and share your discoveries here, the more hands to the sheets, the quicker we go.
> zero crossings of the outer planets wrt the solar equator as well
Yep, planning to see what that looks like after the invariable plane. Think I’ll finally have to resort to grappling with JPL’s CSpice library. May make a start over cribbles but it’ll have to wait till the pud and cream has gone down. Have a good one.
Tallbloke,
Thank you for the follow up to my question and insight.
GarryD
We’re not even close at SC 24 solar max – the sunspots are not at the equator.
SC 24 seems to be a long cycle (> 12 years) and the next minimum will be around 2021/22. I don’t expect the max to be before ~2014. Longer the cycle, colder the globe.
@Edim: …Unless we are watching a similar phenomenon as the “lost solar cycle”, then we would have a “hidden” cycle 25:
Click to access arlt2.pdf
Adolfo, thanks for the link, I remember that paper and I disagree with its conclusion. SC 3 was strong (short). SC 4 was very weak (long) and it started the cooling (Dalton). SC 5 and 6 were weak too. SC 7 and 8 were short and that ended the Dalton. Everything fits.
@Edim: It could be so this time too. Let´s wait and see.
Raw sunspot data from SIDC shows a significant step down for December’s value.
201107 43.9 *
201108 50.6 *
201109 78.0 *
201110 88.0 *
201111 96.7 *
201112 73.0 *