Michele Casati: The Gulf Stream today

UPDATE 24-10-13: Michele links a post which confirms his observations and predictions: Looks like Europe might be in for another very cold winter.

This article is a copy in English from the Italian blog of Dr Michele Casati, http://daltonsminima.altervista.org by kind permission. I’ve paraphrased some of the auto-translation but left most of it as giving a better taste of the original writing – Tim.

Map of North Atlantic conditions, click for current version

The original La corrente del golfo oggi from 26th March 2012

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The Gulf Stream today

-Less boost and more chaotic-

We’re back speaking of the Gulf stream here on Nia. The idea of revisting this topic on the blog was prompted by a blog comment a few weeks ago:-

” Hello … The Gulf stream could be a causative effect in relation to the cooling of the climate in some areas of the globe? Some opinion says [the Gulf stream] is shutting down, but, reading recently [I came across a suggestion] about some curious Giuliacci Weather, [the writer] claimed that the Gulf stream not only is slowing down but seems to work with greater intensity to give us more warmth …Betty ”

That argument has already been investigated and analyzed several times in past years on this platform. What better time to repeat this argument, reporting on the current situation.

Within this new analysis you will also find several links to web pages that refer to articles written in the past season. Theoretical articles, which describe the characteristics and impacts on European climate or vice versa, analysis, monitors in the past years.

Works such as:

• The current system and the thermohaline circulation (1) http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=10070
• An update on the Gulf stream http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=6609

(link to translators)

In short, I believe that monitoring one of the most important currents of our planet must continue, considering the solar events and climate of our planet that seem to point towards a strong and radical change.

Before continuing, I mention that I have been following events for about three years, including following astronomical events and daily weather, I used to go to check (every 15 days), the path and speed of CDG (the Gulf stream and the North Atlantic current)

What it is, and what is happening today

http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=4933

“…..The Gulf stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic current, is a powerful and fast ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico, exits through the Strait of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States until Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean towards Northern Europe dividing into two approximately 30° W, 40° N, one part continues towards Northern Europe and a southern part of current recirculates South toward West Africa … ”

Below I have listed a link to an interesting web page, which explains, with proper and adequate internal dynamics terminology to it (see for example the stationary vortices eddy and meander ), outbound from the Gulf of Mexico.

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/info.shtml

Image that will serve as a comparison for analysis (historic reference), when at the end of this article I processing of today. Continuing the discussion, there is just to say that in these years are not heard and written of all colours. News on the boundary of science that suggest a total block, already under-way, there are exits galore.

But serious scholars who take the field with tools and less talk, what say? How can we not mention the research of prof. Fiammetta Straneo. Here is the article written by our Sand-rio: An Italian scientist says that … in Greenland (and possible relationships with the diversion of the Gulf Stream?)

http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=7492

“… Researchers, led by Fiammetta have discovered that changes in ocean currents of the North Atlantic subtropical water wear, very hot, always more farther north. Hot water with about four degrees Celsius was found during their research. This hot water combined with its rapid spread, allowed the dissolution of Greenland glaciers masses … ”

“This is the first time we’ve seen waters this warm in any of the fjords in Greenland,” says Straneo. “The subtropical waters are flowing through the fjord very quickly, so they can transport heat and drive melting at the end of the glacier.”
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&tid=282&cid=69134&ct=162
http://www.whoi.edu/science/PO/people/fstraneo/publications

It would confirm a change. But what’s really going on in these years. In 2010 our sand-rio had written this post in which showed a strange irregularity:

“…..Finally, I want to show you this picture of January 6, 2010 where you can see that at one point the Gulf stream, turn left towards the Labrador … .. ”

Entering specifically this discussion over the websites from which I have taking the various reports.

The first database is French and provides us with reports generated after taking data from the euro-American poseidon satellite. This platform is what I prefer for its outstanding content, analysis and excellent graphics. Platform where you can find animations of temperatures, currents and salinitá of all the world’s oceans:

http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/html/produits/bestproduct/welcome_fr.jsp

At our disposal there are also American, source NOAA:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

And finally you step this last resort, equipped with an excellent archive:

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1

On the latter resource analysis are available since 2003.

As you probably understand, this article does not aim to demonstrate egregious things shocking, as reported previously, but report a lower strength and strange behaviours (change of direction), which today seem to be confirmed by comparing the cards of 2007/2008 in the last three years 2009-2010-2011 and early 2012.

Are there links to the locations of high/low pressures, hurricanes, cyclones or other? In the subsequent debate I will try to clarify the issue.

Let’s start with the situation of the entire vision of the circulation in the North Atlantic on February 21, 2007 at the surface (0 meters).

On 21 February 2007 to 100 meters deep.

Outgoing traffic from the 21 February 2007 contributed with many

Now let’s go back and compare these images, with the current situation. Registration of 22 February 2012 to 0 meters deep.

On 22 February 2012 at 100 meters deep

Outgoing traffic from the 17 February 2012 contributed with many

It is clear, in particular at 100 meters of depth the distinct difference in speed between the card and the current 2007. I think at that depth are ruled out links with tropospheric circulation changes … or I’m wrong?

I managed to find some old pictures from 1996 and 2000 respectively:

I found an additional web site, with an excellent archive from March 2004.

Link: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/arc_list_GFSTRSP1.html

11 January 2005 comparison – 11 January 2012

Analysis:

2012-less “vorticosità” compared to 2005 (Vortices reported within white circles)

-minor speed of 2012 “main current”. The real axis main thrust or binary (see black lines shown inside the red main binary, reported with white rectangles)

Animations first twenty days January 2005-2012

I also created two animations (top twenty days) that put in comparison, highlight, emphasize an attentive observer, the differences mentioned above. In particular, it puts greater focus on features that the main current of 2012 takes between 50° and 60° degrees of longitude (50W, 60W), in comparison to 2005.

The current fragmented current and vortices are extremely rare or absent. Symptom of a minor boost!

Please wait the loading animation  and then focus on comparison of images, starting the animation.

CLICK FOLLOWING IMAGES TO LOAD AND RUN ANIMATIONS

Click image to run animation

Click image to run animation

At this point of the analysis, further comments and observations seem unnecessary. Considering that the pictures were not taken from a single database, but by three distinct databases .

Analysis, which clearly confirm that the Gulf stream has weakened and its path toward Europe is more CHAOTIC and FRAGMENTED. In fact as other editor of Nia had already reported in some articles, see -2010 2009 biennium, within a few weeks it even registered a change in direction. Specifically, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, in some periods it was reported a change in direction.

The current seemed to deviate towards the coasts of Greenland, rather than continue to Europe. This anomaly confirms the discovery of prof. Fiammetta Straneo.

On the basis of these preliminary analyses, this change appears to have begun since 2000. The connection with the decline of solar activity seems more than evident. I believe that in the near future there should wait only drastic changes in atmospheric circulation but also real revolutions at the level of the global thermohaline circulation. I think at this point of the analysis, taking into consideration current is one of the most popular, but other, less known and not less important, as are behaving?

I await your comments.

michele

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This Talkshop article is a version in English, with some paraphrasing from Michele’s blog, with permission.

Corrections are welcome.

Posted by Tim Channon, co-moderator