Michele Casati: The Gulf Stream today

Posted: March 29, 2012 by tchannon in general circulation, Ocean dynamics

UPDATE 24-10-13: Michele links a post which confirms his observations and predictions: Looks like Europe might be in for another very cold winter.

This article is a copy in English from the Italian blog of Dr Michele Casati, http://daltonsminima.altervista.org by kind permission. I’ve paraphrased some of the auto-translation but left most of it as giving a better taste of the original writing – Tim.

gulf-header

Map of North Atlantic conditions, click for current version

The original La corrente del golfo oggi from 26th March 2012


The Gulf Stream today

-Less boost and more chaotic-

We’re back speaking of the Gulf stream here on Nia. The idea of revisting this topic on the blog was prompted by a blog comment a few weeks ago:-

” Hello … The Gulf stream could be a causative effect in relation to the cooling of the climate in some areas of the globe? Some opinion says [the Gulf stream] is shutting down, but, reading recently [I came across a suggestion] about some curious Giuliacci Weather, [the writer] claimed that the Gulf stream not only is slowing down but seems to work with greater intensity to give us more warmth …Betty ”

That argument has already been investigated and analyzed several times in past years on this platform. What better time to repeat this argument, reporting on the current situation.

Within this new analysis you will also find several links to web pages that refer to articles written in the past season. Theoretical articles, which describe the characteristics and impacts on European climate or vice versa, analysis, monitors in the past years.

Works such as:

(link to translators)

In short, I believe that monitoring one of the most important currents of our planet must continue, considering the solar events and climate of our planet that seem to point towards a strong and radical change.

Before continuing, I mention that I have been following events for about three years, including following astronomical events and daily weather, I used to go to check (every 15 days), the path and speed of CDG (the Gulf stream and the North Atlantic current)

What it is, and what is happening today

http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=4933

gulf-1“…..The Gulf stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic current, is a powerful and fast ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico, exits through the Strait of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States until Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean towards Northern Europe dividing into two approximately 30° W, 40° N, one part continues towards Northern Europe and a southern part of current recirculates South toward West Africa … ”

Below I have listed a link to an interesting web page, which explains, with proper and adequate internal dynamics terminology to it (see for example the stationary vortices eddy and meander ), outbound from the Gulf of Mexico.

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/info.shtml

gulf-2Image that will serve as a comparison for analysis (historic reference), when at the end of this article I processing of today. Continuing the discussion, there is just to say that in these years are not heard and written of all colours. News on the boundary of science that suggest a total block, already under-way, there are exits galore.

But serious scholars who take the field with tools and less talk, what say? How can we not mention the research of prof. Fiammetta Straneo. Here is the article written by our Sand-rio: An Italian scientist says that … in Greenland (and possible relationships with the diversion of the Gulf Stream?)

http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=7492

“… Researchers, led by Fiammetta have discovered that changes in ocean currents of the North Atlantic subtropical water wear, very hot, always more farther north. Hot water with about four degrees Celsius was found during their research. This hot water combined with its rapid spread, allowed the dissolution of Greenland glaciers masses … ”

“This is the first time we’ve seen waters this warm in any of the fjords in Greenland,” says Straneo. “The subtropical waters are flowing through the fjord very quickly, so they can transport heat and drive melting at the end of the glacier.”
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&tid=282&cid=69134&ct=162
http://www.whoi.edu/science/PO/people/fstraneo/publications

It would confirm a change. But what’s really going on in these years. In 2010 our sand-rio had written this post in which showed a strange irregularity:

gulf-3“…..Finally, I want to show you this picture of January 6, 2010 where you can see that at one point the Gulf stream, turn left towards the Labrador … .. ”

Entering specifically this discussion over the websites from which I have taking the various reports.

The first database is French and provides us with reports generated after taking data from the euro-American poseidon satellite. This platform is what I prefer for its outstanding content, analysis and excellent graphics. Platform where you can find animations of temperatures, currents and salinitá of all the world’s oceans:

http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/html/produits/bestproduct/welcome_fr.jsp

At our disposal there are also American, source NOAA:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

And finally you step this last resort, equipped with an excellent archive:

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1

On the latter resource analysis are available since 2003.

As you probably understand, this article does not aim to demonstrate egregious things shocking, as reported previously, but report a lower strength and strange behaviours (change of direction), which today seem to be confirmed by comparing the cards of 2007/2008 in the last three years 2009-2010-2011 and early 2012.

Are there links to the locations of high/low pressures, hurricanes, cyclones or other? In the subsequent debate I will try to clarify the issue.

Let’s start with the situation of the entire vision of the circulation in the North Atlantic on February 21, 2007 at the surface (0 meters).

gulf-8

On 21 February 2007 to 100 meters deep.

gulf-4

Outgoing traffic from the 21 February 2007 contributed with many

gulf-9

Now let’s go back and compare these images, with the current situation. Registration of 22 February 2012 to 0 meters deep.

gulf-10

On 22 February 2012 at 100 meters deep

Outgoing traffic from the 17 February 2012 contributed with many

gulf-11

It is clear, in particular at 100 meters of depth the distinct difference in speed between the card and the current 2007. I think at that depth are ruled out links with tropospheric circulation changes … or I’m wrong?

I managed to find some old pictures from 1996 and 2000 respectively:

gulf-fig6

I found an additional web site, with an excellent archive from March 2004.

Link: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/arc_list_GFSTRSP1.html

11 January 2005 comparison – 11 January 2012

Analysis:

gulf-11

2012-less “vorticosità” compared to 2005 (Vortices reported within white circles)

-minor speed of 2012 “main current”. The real axis main thrust or binary (see black lines shown inside the red main binary, reported with white rectangles)

Animations first twenty days January 2005-2012

I also created two animations (top twenty days) that put in comparison, highlight, emphasize an attentive observer, the differences mentioned above. In particular, it puts greater focus on features that the main current of 2012 takes between 50° and 60° degrees of longitude (50W, 60W), in comparison to 2005.

The current fragmented current and vortices are extremely rare or absent. Symptom of a minor boost!

Please wait the loading animation  and then focus on comparison of images, starting the animation.

CLICK FOLLOWING IMAGES TO LOAD AND RUN ANIMATIONS

ibslu6smsMlbbs

Click image to run animation

iBxEL5E2njKbM

Click image to run animation

At this point of the analysis, further comments and observations seem unnecessary. Considering that the pictures were not taken from a single database, but by three distinct databases .

Analysis, which clearly confirm that the Gulf stream has weakened and its path toward Europe is more CHAOTIC and FRAGMENTED. In fact as other editor of Nia had already reported in some articles, see -2010 2009 biennium, within a few weeks it even registered a change in direction. Specifically, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, in some periods it was reported a change in direction.

The current seemed to deviate towards the coasts of Greenland, rather than continue to Europe. This anomaly confirms the discovery of prof. Fiammetta Straneo.

On the basis of these preliminary analyses, this change appears to have begun since 2000. The connection with the decline of solar activity seems more than evident. I believe that in the near future there should wait only drastic changes in atmospheric circulation but also real revolutions at the level of the global thermohaline circulation. I think at this point of the analysis, taking into consideration current is one of the most popular, but other, less known and not less important, as are behaving?

I await your comments.

michele


This Talkshop article is a version in English, with some paraphrasing from Michele’s blog, with permission.

Corrections are welcome.

Posted by Tim Channon, co-moderator

Comments
  1. Vuc says:

    North Atlantic is one of the critical areas in the global climate change, and while it is relatively orderly, the South Atlantic appear to be more chaotic
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AOT.htm
    Major result was the assembly of historic data and definition of the North Atlantic precursor:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GTCa.htm

  2. […] essay in English from the Italian blog of Dr Michele Casati suggesting that the Gulf Stream has started […]

  3. Tenuk says:

    Thanks for a good post, Michele, with lots of things to ponder. Suspect subtle changes to the contours of the northern Mid-Atlantic ridge could be effecting the direction of the current as well as changes in degree of turbulence?

    In the mean-time looks like the Arctic sea ice maximum was around the same level as 2010 for both area and extent…

    http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

    Meanwhile Arctic temperatures are hitting the average line again, after being well above expected for several months…

    http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

    Be interesting to see what the 2012 minimum brings.

  4. Stephen Wilde says:

    Something else to add to the already extensive list of things that changed in the late 90s as the sun began its slow decline from trhe peak of cycle 23 which was itself weaker than the previous two cycles.

    I’ve been saying for 4 years now that I first noted increasing jetstream meridionality around 2000.

  5. I am thinking…
    mmhhh…
    Step SC23 –> Sc24
    Solar minimun — very low IMF

    Ao

    +

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/12/091224-north-pole-magnetic-russia-earth-core.html
    “……The magnetic north pole had moved little from the time scientists first located it in 1831. Then in 1904, the pole began shifting northeastward at a steady pace of about 9 miles (15 kilometers) a year. In 1989 it sped up again, and in 2007 scientists confirmed that the pole is now galloping toward Siberia at 34 to 37 miles (55 to 60 kilometers) a year…..”

    +
    Gulf stream

    Dec 2009

    Feb 2010

    April 2010

    May 2010

    October 2010

    and paper..

    +
    geofisic event

  6. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Vuc: ..the South Atlantic appear to be more chaotic . My hunch is that you know the reason for such a chaotic behavior.
    Is it this?: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MF.htm

    @Vuc & Michele: It seems that we will need a “magnetic tax” instead of a “carbon tax”, and instead of “hide the decline” a “hide the poles´shift” will appear in future emails.

  7. Joe's Lalonde says:

    What creates the circular vortices and the currents?

    That would be planetary rotation and planetary velocity differences along with interaction with centrifugal force.

    Click to access world-calculations.pdf


    Click to access world-calculations-2.pdf

  8. Tenuk says:

    Joe’s Lalonde says:
    March 30, 2012 at 11:37 am
    What creates the circular vortices and the currents?

    Hi Joe, the answer is turbulence. If we could really understand and be able to predict how turbulent systems behave, we would be a lot closer to understanding how climate systems strive to achieve MEP. We’re still some way from even being to ask the right questions…

    On his death bed, Heisenberg is reported to have said, “When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first.”

    Your second chart is interesting, as at very high temperatures and pressure the viscosity of liquids increases, sometime to the degree they behave as solids.

  9. tchannon says:

    Fun things like the hydraulic jump
    http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/engineering/hydraulics/pubs/06086/hec14ch06.cfm

    As far as the gulf stream is concerned I seem to recall Morner showing the gulf stream is actually elevated above general sea level. Might be fun to find independent confirmation, although that might be how the images we done.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Michele: Thanks for a very informative and interesting post. The ocean plays its games over a long time scale and we must guess it’s short term behaviour with little information.

    Your data suggests we may be seeing the change from one climate period to another. I hope Europe does not become very cold!!

  11. Thanks Tenuk,TB & Tim
    I am very happy to work with you and share scientific research.

    OT
    In particular, attention..
    At the next earthquake prediction.
    Venus (the femme fatal) is coming.
    (May)
    😎

    Stay tuned with,
    michele
    bye

  12. w.w.wygart says:

    Very, very interesting.

    Growing up I was taught that the Gulf Stream was a 70 mile wide river of warm water flowing from the Gulf up along the Eastern seaboard, as an adult I look at these images and say it sure looks like a von Kármán vortex street to me. Don’t ask me what its going to do next, except its probably something that will surprise us all.

  13. Chris M says:

    Thanks very much for this post, Dr Casati. I’m sure that once people can focus their attention away from the Sultry Sea Queen thread (which admittedly has an entertaining soap opera element) they will give your topic the attention it deserves.

    Possibly not very relevant, but how does the apparent weakening of the Gulf Stream compare to the scenario in the disaster film The Day After Tomorrow? I understand that the film’s proposition was that melting polar ice would block the North Atlantic Current (or NA Drift) extension of the Gulf Stream, with ridiculous consequences.

    In contrast the above graphics seem to indicate a weakening at source in the Gulf of Mexico, which implies cooling of the sub-surface sea in the Gulf in recent years, does it not? Has a cooling of Gulf waters been measured? If so what has caused it? If not what other explanation could there be for the weakening of the Gulf Stream? And what might the consequences be for Arctic and Northern European climate? Or does Gulf Stream flow follow a cyclical pattern, with only short term effects on local climate?

    All very intriguing …

  14. Simon says:

    Sea ice formation in the Arctic is supposed to act as a pump with an annual cycle. In winter it forms and sucks fresh water out of the sea, leaving more dense, saline water to sink and start it’s return journey sub-surface in the opposite direction of the current. Quite what happens in the summer when ice melts and releases fresh water I’m not sure, but reading about this model a few years ago, something sounded plausible…

  15. Michele Casati says:
    March 29, 2012 at 11:20 pm

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/12/091224-north-pole-magnetic-russia-earth-core.html
    “……The magnetic north pole had moved little from the time scientists first located it in 1831. Then in 1904, the pole began shifting northe…………

    See
    Climate Change and the Earth’s Magnetic Poles, A Possible Connection

    You can download the paper from here.

    http://www.adriankweb.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/Climate_Change.htm

    Comments via my website welcome

  16. Does anyone have an estimate of the warming of the oceans caused by the ocean floor outpourings of hot gases/materials and the warming caused by volcanic flows into the oceans? Is it is a constant or does it undergo any cyclical changes?

  17. Joe's Lalonde says:

    Tenuk,

    Scientists totally screwed-up our ability to actually understand this planet with “observed science” neglecting anything that may be unobserved especially anything of a mechanical nature. They created theories and laws that were generated through observed science. The mathematical calculations are for a straight line flat plane like a cylinder through the averaging process which is NOT what an orb is. Planetary rotation, pressure and planetary tilting were NEVER included.
    The planet and atmosphere have two different systems due to the density differences.
    Turbulence on the planet is generated by a few ways. The vibrations of our crust by quakes and the planetary wobble and also the planetary tilting.
    What is the prevailing release of volcanic activity?
    That would be gases even after 4.5 billion years and the system slowing down. So our core must be comprised of compressed gases that would give a false reading of being solid(like our sun). Theory is it was comprised of nickel falling from the crust and took 2.5 billion years(bull crap!).
    We have not lost a single molecule of water and yet much evidence is showing vast amounts of water lost through space.

    But I just follow the evidence and not preconceived scientists consensus.

  18. tallbloke says:

    The southern ocean absorbs more heat than the northern continents. The S.H. excess has to cross the equator to even out the planetary energy balance as it works towards maximum entropy. But this isn’t a smooth or steady process. The belching of SH energy in to the NH takes place on various timescales: seasonal, decadal, right down to glacial/interglacial frequencies. Whether the events are driven by cloud variation, or vice versa, I’m not sure. The very long term cycles are more than likely induced by the Milankovitch cycles.

    The events are sure to alter surface biology, wind patterns and the changing volumes of dust and biota that end up in clouds. It’s a fascinatingly complex picture.

  19. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Michele. I’ve put your post back on the front page of the blog to promote discussion

  20. Kon Dealer says:

    Is this weaking/change in the Gulfstream- possibly leading to a European “Little Ice-Age” absolute proof of CAGW?

    (sarc)

  21. tchannon says:

    Article writer comments: –
    Goodness me, self resurrecting articles. I vaguely recall this one took some time to put together so it’s nice when it endures. Michele did the cerebral work. At the time there was very little reaction in comments, probably because it was more a read-only for interest, traffic remained high.

    Today some unexpected links appear, then network magic happens.

    At Pierre L. Gosselin’s a demur comment links a lovely sidetrack of the nutty Brits being lampooned, not that others in western Europe are free of the same paranoia, nor the USA.

    http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/ and that links a BBC example from 2003 http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/bigchill.shtml

    I don’t think anyone is suggesting a “shutdown”, merely a weakening, a variation in a natural process. Oh right, weather is constant unless it is climate?

    As it happens I nearly posted a long article earlier this year making clear the climatic difference between where Rog Tallbloke resides and the same latitude over in Canada where some excellent side interest appears. (such as the massive hydro-electric scheme which feeds New York).
    There is a chalk and cheese climatic difference, north western Europe is peculiar for it’s geographic location.
    A snippet off draft here: –
    Same latitude January 2009, a travelogue of a journey
    http://jamesbayroad.com/travelogues/2009vcampbell/page01.html
    But summer is much the same as over in England or maybe with biting critters akin to Scotland.

  22. wayne says:

    Seems in what I have become aware of in the last month we are already about five to seven years over the peak in temperature and if the artificial adjustments are removed alread down ≈0.12C. Seems once again without any further positive adjustment to the temp records the next 20 to 25 years is downhill. Should bottom at -0.4 to -0.5C from 2006 level, maybe lower if the sun stay dormant. If it cools, why would the GS not slow? I see no reason it shouldn’t.

  23. Thank you roger,
    for replay my article.

    And the next step ?
    …..stratospheric major warming for the 2014 ?

    I do not think…difficult, because Venus-Earth-Jupiter do not agree
    🙂

    I think low solar activity is ending, sunspots on the rise
    Next three months….I think we are going second peak (sud hemisphere),
    more moderate than the previous (nord hemisphere).

  24. Power Grab says:

    @ Adrian (March 31, 2012 at 10:46 am)

    Check out this page:

    http://www.iceagenow.com/Ocean_Warming.htm

  25. Tim Cullen says:

    Michele Casati says: March 29, 2012 at 11:20 pm

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/12/091224-north-pole-magnetic-russia-earth-core.html
    “……The magnetic north pole had moved little from the time scientists first located it in 1831. Then in 1904, the pole began shifting northeastward at a steady pace of about 9 miles (15 kilometers) a year. In 1989 it sped up again, and in 2007 scientists confirmed that the pole is now galloping toward Siberia at 34 to 37 miles (55 to 60 kilometers) a year…..”



    Michele:
    Mainstream geomagnetism is seriously screwed.

    Magnetic deviation was recognised in the 17th century.
    Sir Edmond Halley published the first map of deviation in 1701.

    The first map of deviation was published in 1701 following an exhaustive voyage by the English astronomer Sir Edmond Halley (1656-1742).

    It was no coincidence that this map covered the Atlantic Ocean, good navigation being of great importance for England at that time, for both economic and military reasons.

    Furthermore, in the course of the 17th century, it became apparent that the magnetic field was not constant and that the deviation changed slightly from year to year, and therefore it became important, not only to map the magnetic field, but also to keep the maps up to date.

    The Road to the Magnetic North Pole – Truls Lynne Hansen – University of Tromsø

    http://geo.phys.uit.no/articl/roadto.html

    Sir Edmond Halley also recognised the Earth’s magnetic field was quadrupolar.

    As data accumulated, Halley noticed how the line of zero declination drifted westward.

    Apparently the whole pattern of Earth’s magnetism was creeping toward the west at a pace that would complete a circuit in a couple thousand years.

    To explain this curiosity, Halley proposed that the Earth has two north and two south magnetic poles.

    Two of these poles lay on the surface, the other two lay on an inner sphere about 800 km deep. By cleverly adjusting the slow westerly rotation of this inner sphere, he could reproduce the observed variations to some extent.

    The Magnetic Universe – J B Zirker – 2009

    From 1800 to the present, the dipolar component of the field has weakened at 6.3 percent per century and the quadrupolar component has strengthened.

    Measurements of the magnetism of rocks indicate that the dipole’s decrease has persisted for at least 2,000 years. If it continued to decrease at the present rate, it would vanish in 1,600 years.

    The Magnetic Universe – J B Zirker – 2009

    http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2013/08/09/geomagnetism-salvaging-the-wreckage/

    The movement of the magnetic north pole has been documented since 1701 but this is ignored by the mainstream computer models.

    A wonderful example of mainstream modelling madness is embodied within North American Magnetic Pole position reconstructions.

    The observational data [1831 thru 2001] show a [slightly wobbly] straight line northerly trajectory.

    This straight line trajectory appears to have been continuous since [at least] 1702 when Sir Edmond Halley published his declination map.

    However, the mainstream model inexplicably has the pole performing a 180 degree pirouette prior to the first observational data point in 1831.

    http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2013/08/09/geomagnetism-salvaging-the-wreckage/

    You might also find the following useful:

    Palaeomagnetism: Logic Reversals

    http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2013/08/07/palaeomagnetism-logic-reversals/

    Geomagnetism: Virtual Reality – Virtual Insanity

    http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2013/08/06/geomagnetism-virtual-reality-virtual-insanity/

  26. “The connection with the decline of solar activity seems more than evident”

    Perhaps less solar energy getting in to drive the currents due to more clouds from more meridional jets ?

    More and more phenomena seem to have shown a change in trend around 2000.

  27. “The southern ocean absorbs more heat than the northern continents. The S.H. excess has to cross the equator to even out the planetary energy balance as it works towards maximum entropy”

    Perhaps via the ENSO phenomenon ?

    I’ve suggested that to Bob Tisdale but he wasn’t impressed.

  28. E Hughes says:

    Major solar event occuring, the third X flare today is underway :

    Already an X1.7 and a X2.1 earlier today.
    cheers

  29. tallbloke says:

    As Michele predicted! Well done.

    LASCO C2 images at 15:24 and 15:36 today are great!
    http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query