This is part four of a four part guest post by ‘Lucy Skywalker’.
Graeff’s experiments and 2LoD: Replication and Implications
Lucy Skywalker recaps: In Part One I described my visit to Graeff’s seminar. In Part Two I described some of his experiments in detail. In Part Three I showed how he developed the backing theory. Finally in Part Four I now consider the implications of this work, and plans for replicating the experiments. Replication is of crucial importance both to Climate Science in particular, and Science in general; without it, no theory is sacrosanct.
Here is a replication of one of Graeff’s experiments, assembled by him and ready to go. This particular experiment seems to be simpler in its results than the experiments we’ve looked at. But first, I want to think about implications of his work, to gauge where we want to pitch in.
IMPLICATIONS OF GRAEFF’S WORK
Graeff has demonstrated that a modification of the full statement for the Second Law is needed, and that this is possible without contravening the essence of the Second Law. One place where his modification is clearly of importance is Climate Science.
Atmospheric temperature drops on average about 7°C for every kilometre altitude gained, with variations depending on humidity and other factors. This is the adiabatic lapse rate which is very familiar to meteorologists and airplane pilots. Yet there is no theoretical basis that includes the molecular effect of gravity in the way Graeff shows must be at work – as far as I am aware. Now we suddenly have a very beautiful, very simple and very satisfying explanation for the adiabatic lapse rate, namely gravity on individual molecules, OFFSET more or less by convection to produce a dynamic and somewhat unstable equilibrium.
The following is my fuller explanation, which I hope others can improve:
By gravity, gas molecules fall and gain kinetic energy which is warmth. But this increased kinetic energy causes them to repel each other more actively and the gas will either expand-and-rise, or warm. We have a continual balancing-act between what individual molecules do in microscopic response to gravity (fall and get warmer) and what groups of free molecules can do all together – ie convect (expand and rise as a parcel, gaining momentum as wind but cooling due to both expansion and loss of gravitational kinetic energy). The very existence of the adiabatic lapse rate (a.l.r.) strongly suggests the presence of a gravitational temperature gradient T(Gr). It appears that T(Gr) (-0.07K/m = 70°C/km) is about nine-tenths offset by convection in the free atmosphere to produced the familiar adiabatic lapse rate of around 7°C/km – and a habitable planet. This is unfamiliar, so it feels tricky at first. One has to imagine single molecules under gravity, and at the same time, parcels of molecules able to have a net collective action ie convection. In the free atmosphere, convection nearly overcomes T(Gr), but not quite, and the a.l.r. is the result. But in the far denser oceans, convection wins over T(Gr) so cool water being heavier sinks. If there were convection impedance, warmth would increase with depth – as happens in the solid earth.The convection needed to balance T(Gr) in air is scarcely noticed on this planet. But the sun shining through clear air to warm Earth’s surfaces creates noticeable convection currents which, again, undo most of the warming.The true greenhouse effect occurs in greenhouses where convection is impeded.
I suspect that early meteorologists may have understood or intuited all this – it is not far-removed from common-sense. There is indeed sound evidence for the “greenhouse gas” properties of substances like CO2, O3 and CH4: we can see the evidence for ozone in the diagram above – but the ozone effect at least seems to be insitu, not projected down. Yet the IPCC claim a mere 33-degree greenhouse effect. This contradicts common-sense and the ozone effect, and when we look at the 70 degrees temperature difference between Earth’s tropopause and Earth’s surface; it is even further from explaining the 100-odd degrees temperature difference between the lunar surface temperature (measured now by Diviner) and the Earth surface temperature.
The gravity effect, as theorized by Graeff, can explain this large difference with no trouble at all (gravitational temp. gradient, minus local convection, equals local adiabatic lapse rate). It can explain the warmth in places below sea level, and down deep mines. Graeff’s theory also makes sense of the violent atmosphere on Jupiter and the very high temperatures of Venus’ surface and the interior of Jupiter. It starts to explain why our own planet is extremely hot at the core yet temperate at the surface. I have found nothing in the solar system that Graeff’s theory does not start to explain.
Graeff’s theory remedies a huge missing link.
HOW TO ALLOW FOR OUR HUMAN REACTIONS?
People have strong reactions to challenges to familiar ways of thinking. Some people will go to great lengths to stay in denial of evidence, rather than look at something that requires them to consider changing their thinking and their belief system, maybe risk losing grants, status, obsessions, or credibility. What an embarrassment if one’s lifelong “expertise” might not look so great any more. We’ve seen the whole of orthodox Climate Science close ranks and do this to skeptics, in spades.
In Graeff’s case, it is not only “warmists” who may have such a reaction. It is “climate skeptics” as well. Graeff’s theory not only challenges one of the most sacrosanct of all the laws of science, it also gives strong credence to other challengers like Nikolov and Zeller.
OK, we have to ask questions. Surely Graeff’s challenge would have been seen and accepted at the time of Maxwell, if it was good science?? Actually there was one good scientist, Loschmidt, who did dispute Maxwell. The really extraordinary thing is that until Graeff, nobody had checked Loschmidt’s challenge to Maxwell’s belief (and Gibbs’ mathematical theory) by practical experimentation.
REPLICATION OF EXPERIMENTS
Clearly we have to do very thorough checking, with replication of experiments. But we can save ourselves anxiety by remembering that only a few years back, Graeff’s experiments at laboratory scale would have yielded temperatures too small and too fluctuating to measure. We didn’t have suitable materials, or precision thermocouples and thermistors, or the computer power to record long sequences. But Graeff has developed sufficient methodology, and has shown what accuracy and consistency to expect, and how to wring statistically significant results out of fluctuating data, so that we can experiment and get valid results. The graphs below are a reminder from his water experiment. They show (1) how he wrung significance from the subtle effect of gradient fluctuations (thermocouples n 1-8, fine scale to LHS) lagging temperature rates of change (thermistors 9-14 – larger scale to RHS),
and how he used those temperature gradient fluctuations (thermocouples) plotted against extermal temperature changes (thermistors) to obtain a very exact reading for the temperature gradient when the external conditions are not changing (point where change per hour = zero).
NB: the thermistor readings above, while clearly accurate in showing change (they clearly move in step) are not so accurate in absolute terms. Therefore it is neither clear nor necessary to know which lines represent which, between 9 and 14.
We will still have to deal with challenges rooted in emotional denial. We can expect a lot of repetition and a great show of apparently relevant knowledge that may be valid as claimed, though it is more likely to be straw men etc. This can be tiring and depressing. Scientist have even committed suicide following such responses, even when their work has been correct and accepted years, decades or even centuries later.
But the other side of the challenges is eventually a very strong certainty. There is no way Science can escape dealing with emotional reactions. Rather, it is surely far better scientific practice to acknowledge human nature, and by acknowledgement, develop ways to deal with it. This is a big challenge to Science today – how to handle so-called “subjective” factors that Science rightly excluded early on, that are now kicking back so hard as to make corrupt nonsense of whole branches of Science.
At the simplest level, we can deal with this issue by simply becoming aware of what’s happening, without judgement, and preferably with compassion, whenever we see human frailty. Blogs can be brilliant places for developing this higher part of our human nature. Some awaken more quickly than others. But we are all on the journey.
At the end of all this, there is the excitement of real scientific discovery. Here is something important, right under our noses.
WHAT CAN WE DO NEXT?
I want to see Graeff’s work replicated in ways people can trust. I believe this is crucial at all levels. Without basic replication, people will reasonably say that Graeff could be mistaken (though I personally have no doubts). Replication is thus the key to:
- Put right a flaw in a very basic and very important law of physics
- Accept that even the Second Law can still have amazingly “obvious” flaws
- Open up possibilities regarding alternative energy production – possibilities that may have been prematurely excluded
- Help restore Climate Science to a proper scientific footing – and stimulate reform therein
- Open the way to a more holistic approach to Science altogether – we ignore “subjective” factors at our peril.
My latest news is that Graeff is actually working right now with a professor at an American University who is hoping to replicate his experiments. This is the first time anyone has actually chosen to replicate him, and collaborate. Professor Sheehan has certainly taken a warm and perceptive interest, but has not undertaken replication. A Japanese professor set up an experiment, but using a centrifuge without enough controls to be able to measure a true gravitational effect as Graeff has done. Lack of replication is not for want of Graeff trying to interest the universities that should be doing this work…
I regard this US development as of crucial importance. If Graeff’s work is now going to be replicated in proper fashion, and written up so as to be able to achieve at least the first two points above, I shall feel that my involvement in direct replication is no longer needed. However, we are not yet at this point. And I do not know how many of my other points the professor may be open to. So there may still be work for us to do, particularly to help this work to be grasped and honoured by Climate Science.
If nothing comes of the US development, then I will still need to start with replication – in which case, the questions are:
- Building a team – who wants to become involved? How can we build a good team? How about a trip to Graeff for this? Etc… I am willing to be a first contact point.
- Location – should we start where I live and where there are already many others interested in parts of science that orthodoxy will not examine? Does Tallbloke want to take on this project where he lives? Can we find a friendly college laboratory? Etc…
- Details: basic materials, sensitive equipment, skills, premises? How to find somewhere that maintains a constant temperature like Graeff’s thermostatically-controlled cellar? Do we simply collect scrap insulation / metal sleeves / etc or do we have money to go for “the best”? How much hands-on knowledge do we need? Can someone handle datalogger setup, calibration, and conversion to Excel on a PC? What can Graeff advise out of a lifetime of engineering? Etc…
- Communication: getting the word out to the professionals who should be doing this work – do we want to aim to produce a paper for peer-review? should we include Sheehan and Graeff and others? at what point do we step back with “mission accomplished” ?
I am hoping to visit Graeff again this year, perhaps with a small group of people who are interested like myself. I think that such a visit would make a huge difference. And it may be now or never, since he is 84 – and it would be a great loss to all of us if we miss this opportunity.
Prepared for the web from documents supplied by Lucy Skywalker.