Apparently climate is cooling…

Posted: July 29, 2013 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Rebecca Smith calls out Steven Goddard. Place bets now.

Comments
  1. Craig M says:
    July 29, 2013 at 8:00 pm

    Instead of providing any analytical interpretation of the dataset, or even basic statistical evidence, he chose to make a mockery of climatological sciences by pasting a picture of a hockey stick on top to represent his belief that Greenland is cooling, as opposed to warming.

    I don’t think Steve’s hockey stick could make a mockery of the climatological sciences any more than some we could mention already have with their own hockey sticks.
    😀

  2. Roger Andrews says:
    July 29, 2013 at 10:28 pm

    Just posted this on Rebecca’s blog:

    Rebecca

    I notice that you used the unadjusted GHCN v2 data to perform your analyses, which is good. You also threw out all years without complete monthly data, which is also good. You picked up on the fact that the GISS annual means don’t exactly match the average of the monthly means – don’t know why not, but good again. You’re also correct in pointing out that a linear trend line drawn through the remaining data shows an overall warming gradient, although I’m not sure that a linear trend line means that much when the data are so scattered.

    However, the unadjusted GHCN v2 data you used aren’t what GISS uses to construct the global series. GISS uses “homogeneity adjusted” GHCN v3 records, and the homogeneity adjustments applied to the Godthaab record add almost a degree of warming since 1880. You can verify this by comparing the GHCN v2 against the GHCN v3 records on the GISS website.

    A significant fraction of the warming shown by the GISS global surface air temperature series is in fact manufactured by dubious adjustments of this type, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. If you want to do some checking Alice Springs would be a good record to start with.

  3. tallbloke says:
    July 29, 2013 at 11:19 pm

    Roger: Why don’t you point Rebecca to the ‘chunder down under’ thread too?

    Roger Andrews: Chunder down under – How GHCN V3.2 manufactures warming in the outback

  4. Lance Wallace says:
    July 29, 2013 at 11:25 pm

    Greenland temperatures are out of phase with Northern Hemisphere temps, at least according to a recent article by Kobashi et al, 2013. (freely downloadable from the URL below.) They find a fairly strong correlation with solar activity, as estimated from an ice core GISP2 in Greenland, but high solar activity leads to cooler temps in Greenland compared to warmer temps in the NH. They show a pretty good correlation with the (solar-driven) Northern Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). They showed that temperatures from the Summit site in Greenland were well correlated with average temperatures across the rest of Greenland so used the temperatures from that site. There is strong polar amplification (2.6) so Greenland relative temperatures are wildly higher than the NH in the 1930-60 interval and then much lower than the NH in 1970-2000. (See their Figure 1). There is a good discussion of the physical mechanism, involving higher ozone with stronger solar activity, thus trapping heat in general throughout the NH, but then winds and blocking highs cause Greenland to behave differently from the rest of the NH. A welcome change from the CO2 fixation.

    http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ko08400z.html

  5. Lance Wallace says:
    July 29, 2013 at 11:31 pm

    Forgot to “place my bet” but Fig. 2 of Kobayashi (161 years of average Greenland temperatures compared with those from Summit) suggests that both Steven and Elizabeth have a point–temperatures do decline from a local high in 1930, whereas starting from 1840 there is a clear increase from -23 C to about – 21 C. (Is this meaningful? Your spit will still freeze before it hits the ground at either temperature).

  6. Roger Andrews says:
    July 29, 2013 at 11:35 pm

    TB: I’m hopeful she can reach the same conclusions without any prompting.

  7. tallbloke says:
    July 29, 2013 at 11:44 pm

    oops. too late.

  8. tchannon says:
    July 30, 2013 at 1:23 am

  9. ima pariah (@conservatarist) says:
    July 30, 2013 at 2:00 am

    And to think I was gone when Rebecca Elizabeth Smith @ahoybecks replied on twitter so didn’t respond there.
    I tend to follow the more ‘snarky’ commenters on climate science, (or lack thereof) and had no problem getting Goddard’s point, did not think anyone would miss it as being snark, based on the Mannian ‘hockey stick’ of IPCC fame when I posted the link to my timeline.
    To me, the snark is evident, the inverse hockey stick well placed, and the point is well made.
    Others who I follow who are good with snark include @JamesDelingpole and @AceofSpadesHQ and there may be an occasional @Iowahawkblog climate related post for those who like the commentary with a bit of humor. A steady diet of #ClimateAlarmism from the #MSM is hard to take at times.

  10. Stephen Wilde says:
    July 30, 2013 at 11:30 am

    Lance Wallace said:

    “There is a good discussion of the physical mechanism, involving higher ozone with stronger solar activity, thus trapping heat in general throughout the NH, but then winds and blocking highs cause Greenland to behave differently from the rest of the NH. A welcome change from the CO2 fixation. ”

    Except that there are less blocking highs when the sun is active and more when it is inactive so they must have the sign of the solar effect on ozone wrong.

    High solar activity gives colder weather in Greenland with warming in the mid latitudes because it is north of the more zonal jets with less warm air able to flow in.

    Low solar activity gives warmer weather in Greenland because the more meridional flow allows more ingress of warm air but with the mid latitudes cooling.

  11. tchannon says:
    July 30, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    grin
    It seems the dear lady likes scissors or is asleep.
    Never mind, she learnt.

  12. Roger Andrews says:
    July 30, 2013 at 3:53 pm

    “(W)inds and blocking highs cause Greenland to behave differently from the rest of the NH”.

    If you look at temperatures during the period of instrumental record you find that every part of the NH behaves differently to the rest of the NH. The NH temperature record is in fact an apples-and oranges average of different regional trends. No two regions are exactly the same.

    “Greenland temperatures are out of phase with Northern Hemisphere temps”.

    They are generally in phase with temperatures elsewhere in the Arctic:

  13. kuhnkat says:
    August 1, 2013 at 4:55 am

    Roger Andrews,

    I don’t think the data you used for the graphs are adjusted enough. Isn’t the Arctic supposed to be warming at least 4 times as fast as the lower latitudes if not more??

  14. Tenuk says:
    August 1, 2013 at 6:28 am

    According to Danish Meteorological Institute, temperatures in the Arctic Circle are colder this year than the recent average…

    While Arctic sea ice cover is higher than recent years…

    Please spare a thought for the poor Polar Bears,

  15. Roger Andrews says:
    August 1, 2013 at 3:34 pm

    kuhnkat

    All I need to do is adjust the temps to get rid of the inconvenient hump around 1940 and I’ve got it. 😉