![Eastern Ukraine [image credit: BBC News]](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/luhansk.gif)
Eastern Ukraine
[image credit: BBC News]
Is this what’s really going on at the Russia-facing end of Ukraine?
The report below claims it is ‘the true goal of Russia’s special operation’.
‘The total area of the shale gas deposit is almost 8 thousand square kilometers. Experts point out that the gas deposits in this land can bring revolutionary changes not only to Ukraine’s energetics, but of the whole Europe.’
On the streets it’s getting uglier by the day.
Full report: http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2014/4/28/96514/
29/04/14: Ukraine crisis: Pro-Russia activists seize Luhansk HQ
30/04/14: Ukraine ‘on full combat alert’ against possible Russia invasion
2/05/14: Ukraine pilot killed in Sloviansk military operation
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
I’m afraid that looks like a nice big red herring to me. Not about the shale gas reserves, but about Russia ‘wanting’ them. AFAIK, Russia has the largest gas reserves anyway, and oil as well. So why would they ‘want’ this comparatively small piece? They are not threatened by dwindling energy resources.
Interesting though that this piece in “Charter97” mentions that the former PM, Yanukovich, had signed a treaty in January, giving the exploitation rights to Shell … and that both Exxon and Chevron have been given such rights for fields in the Western Ukraine.
Perhaps that is the reason why ‘The West’, in the form of the USA and EU, are so keen to have the Ukraine become a member of the EU, while blaming Russia for what they actually want to do, exploiting those shale gas fields?
The question is: would Russia lose out if Ukraine started exporting gas?
As long as they keep de-stabilising the place, nobody will want to go drilling there unless the Russians approve of them.
‘According to the latest confirmed data, coming from Americans, there are 3.6 trillion cubic meters of gas that they clearly see how to extract.’
Is that ‘comparatively small’?
Now the real reason for all this hurrah! By my guess the Ukraine sits on enough fuels to supply all of Europe for a long time. Not something Putin and his friends want to let slip from their fingers. The Oligarchs want to be richer then Arab Princes. The KGB had all the secrets of the USSR, and Putin & company are the old KGB. Remember that a few poor old communist bureaucrats became multibillionairs “over night” “Eastern European” wealth that Soros helped manage was secret KGB slush funds. Putin has an 20,000 man private army that was funded and trained for the Sochi Olympics security, paid for out of the $50billion! that Russia spent. Do you think that that was all wasted on infrastructure. Where did they go after the Olympics? To Russia? NO WHERE?. They are still in the Ukraine. The real Russian army is still in Russia as backup if Putins’ private army gets into too much trouble with their “revolution”. pg
The Ukraine crisis is simply the latest chapter in the ages-old struggle between East and West. History repeating itself, if you like:
I’m told that “Ukraine” means “borderland”, incidentally.
P.G. Do not forget that Russia has never fallen for all the CAGW crap and that the rich dark soil and the vast fields of wheat and other food products earned Ukraine the nickname “bread basket of Europe”.
As former KGB Putin would have been aware of the the 1974 CIA report:
“A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”
Click to access 1974.pdf
Just a return to the weather patterns of the 1970s would spell major problems for Russia as well as the USA especially with twice as many people to feed.
Movement of Köppen vegetation-based empirical climate boundaries in US Midwest.
Kansas is 210 miles ( 338 kilometres) wide so you are looking at a loss of ~150 miles or so of your northern most grain belts through Canada, Russia and China. – Not good especially if we are going to be seeing that this year at least in Canada and the US Midwest. There is STILL ice on the great lakes.
USDA shows the U.S. corn crop is 19% planted, which is behind the five-year average of 28% planted for late April.
And just in case the bad weather in the USA wasn’t enough of a problem there is the impact of the new “Food Safety Modernization Act” that goes in effect this year.
Distillers grain, “spent” grains leftover after the sugar is extracted to produce ethanol, is a common ingredient in livestock feeds. Now the USDA wants to regulate it. If it is regulated it will be cheaper for the distillers to landfill the “spent” grains than it is to turn it into animal protein.
22 – 28% of the US corn crop goes into biofuel and up until now the left over distillers grain went to feed cows, hogs and poultry @ a cost of ~$20 to 25/100lbs for commercial feed. Another ~ 20% of the corn crop is exported to other countries. (Remember NAFTA bankrupted 75% of Mexico’s farmers) If that distillers grain is suddenly taken off the market what happens??? Will the formerly exported grain now be used for animal feed? will the distillers grain become a “hazardous waste” – Don’t laugh a vineyard in Taxachusetts had the seeds and skins from his wine pressings declared “hazardous waste” and was barred from using the material as organic fertilizer on his vines.
http://www.agweb.com/article/farmers_brewers_await_grain_fate_under_fda_rule_NAA_Associated_Press/
This will also effect beet pulp another industry ‘leavings’ that is used for animal feed.
@Gail Combs; Yes, I know about the bureaucratic drive to destroy western civilization. They always do. It is the nature of a bureaucrat to lock up everything in regulation and paperwork. They personally have nothing at risk and no compassion for those whose lives they impact. Generally every few generations they get so egregious that the people hunt them down and eliminate them. Too bad, as generally, civil society is destroyed before the bureaucracies are.
Prophecies for the near future are that we are saved by a “wise old man” as he sets the world on a new path. Don’t know who he is, as he will remain hidden until his time, for his protection from those that follow the dark path. pg
pg, is the “wise old man” Santa Claus or Obi Wan Kenobi? If it is for the fight against the dark side, let’s hope that it is Obi Wan Kenobi.
Russia is to European energy what De Beers is to diamonds. No way they’re gong to allow Ukraine to dig in that ditch. If the Russians accept (why would they not?) that the NH is in for decades of colder climate which takes Siberia out of the wheat futures market, Ukraine looks pretty tasty for a second reason. Toss in a large ethnic Russian population strategically installed in place by Mother Russia and you now have a moral obligation to confiscate all of Ukraine and multiple economic reasons for doing so.
Can anyone think of any other place on earth where there is a parallel to this? Hint: Southern California. Given the blame/hate America First attitude of our current government and the confiscatory mentality of the global community, I don’t see this as much of a leap. Russia, a superpower in the UN, would certainly be for Mexico annexing SoCal.
@ dp
San Francisco was part of Mexico before 1848. And hasn’t the Mexican ‘invasion’ of California and Texas been going on for decades? 😉
The keys to Russian strategy are Sevatopol and Donets. These are strategic locations for securing Russian borders from EU and NATO expasion.
Sevastopol was secured by Crimean accession to Russia. Donets will be next and perhaps the one or two of its neighbours.
The EU and NATO were fantasizing that Russia would allow the Crimea, the Kerch Strait and the coast of the Sea of Azov to come under NATO command.
This is the 1962 Cuban Crisis inverted. At that time President Kennedy announced the Kennedy Docrine by which the US Government claimed the right to intervene where any government in the Western Hemisphere failed to fulfil its hemispheric obligations.
Prime Minister Deifenbaker of Canada, who had won a landslide electon, appeared on national televsion and stated that if this included Canada then it was an “unwarranted interference in Canadian affairs”.
In the next election US corporations withheld financial support from the Conservative Party and Mr Deifenbaker was voted out of office.
Going from bad to worse: now they’re on a war footing – ‘threat is real’:
Ukraine’s military is “on full combat alert” against a possible invasion by Russian troops massed on the border, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said in a ministerial meeting in Kiev on Wednesday.
“Our armed forces are on full combat alert,” he said. “The threat of Russia starting a war against mainland Ukraine is real.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10797862/Ukraine-on-full-combat-alert-against-possible-Russia-invasion.html
Looks like Russia will keep on turning the screw and then blame Ukraine if/when fighting starts.
They’re already holding hostages – doesn’t look good at all.
Probably all it takes now is something like another ‘Gleiwitz incident’…
‘It was intended to create the appearance of Polish aggression against Germany in order to justify the subsequent invasion of Poland.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
The NSA is probably monitoring Russian political leaders too.
‘The US secretary of state, John Kerry, claims America has obtained intercepted phone calls that prove Moscow is deliberating trying to destabilise eastern Ukraine, according to reports of leaked remarks he made at a private meeting last week.’
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/30/us-intercepts-moscow-calls-to-spies-kerry-leaked-remarks-russia
Two Ukrainian helicopters have been shot down, killing at least one pilot.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27250026
Another BBC report says:
‘I asked one of the armed “men in green” where he came from.
“Ukraine,” he replied curtly. Then he smiled: “Actually, there’s no such nationality as Ukrainian. That’s an Austria-Hungarian deception. We’re Russian. We’re all Russian. And this land isn’t Ukraine: it’s Novorossiya – and we will defend it.” ‘
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27231649
Latest: ‘Thirty-one reported dead in fire linked to riots in Ukraine port of Odessa’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10805412/Ukraine-crisis-dozens-killed-in-Odessa-fire-as-violence-spreads-to-countrys-south.html
The Huns and the Rus have been fighting over this area for a thousand years. Russia began in the eastern area. Putin looks to win back his homeland. Or at least that is the pretext. After the demise of the USSR, Russia signed a treaty with the US and the Ukraine that they would guarantee the integrity of Ukraine. I guess we will see if Putin plans to unify the Ukraine under his rule to make good on the treaty.. pg
oldbrew – All of Mexico belonged to Spain which is how they came to own California, and before Spain it was owned by indigenous North Americans who would probably like it back in the same condition it was in when stolen. This isn’t a California problem, though.
http://www.kvoa.com/news/n4t-investigators-rogue-mexican-army-troops-crossing-the-line/
Not the first time, of course. I guess the point is, when the world is stressed by global economic problems the tin pot leaders start doing crazy things to bolster moral that also happens to take attention away from the misery of a jobless world.
Large map of Russia’s build-up on the Ukraine border.
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/russias-buildup-on-the-ukraine-border/996/
Quote: ‘the loyalty of some units to the Kiev government is in doubt.’
BBC reports:
‘Fears of an impending offensive by Ukrainian forces are growing in the pro-Russian stronghold of Sloviansk, sources inside the city say.
Ukraine’s army cut off the main road into the city on Sunday, squeezing its hold on rebel fighters.
A reporter inside Sloviansk told the BBC that residents expect the city to be stormed.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27280814
At what point might Russia ‘intervene’?
I posted this pistonheads months ago. The strategic importance of Ukraine to Russia has many facets and one facet that is religiously ignored by the MSM is oil and gas.
Latest: ‘Leadership of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” has declared independence of the region and has sought accession to Russia.’
http://rbth.com/news/2014/05/12/donetsk_peoples_republic_declares_independence_and_requests_accession_to_36590.html
Over to you Mr Putin – yes or no? Looks like ‘no’ but no prediction is safe.
another chess move?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2014/05/13/biden-joe-hunter-ukraine-gas-company-burisma-holdings/9047751/
Now the Russians want their gas payments up front. Not surprising given the massive arrears, plus the fact the IMF has put loan money into the Ukraine economy.
‘Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom has said it may halt natural gas shipments to Ukraine on 3 June unless the country pays in advance for supplies.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27374070
Other European countries getting their supplies via Ukraine won’t like the sound of this. Russia can turn up the political pressure any time it fancies.
So the EU imposes economic sanctions on Russia while at the same time the IMF gives money to Ukraine so that Ukraine can give it to Russia to pay its gas bills.
From the sublime to the ridiculous
And from the ridiculous to the stark raving bonkers.
The thing is, if Russia turns the Ukraine’s gas taps off various EU countries will feel the pain too.
That’s why the EU ‘sanctions’ are of the ‘slap on the wrist’ variety.
Also there’s a tit-for-tat game going on as Ukraine has cut off Crimea’s water supply. They could probably turn it back on if Russia happened to make a concession on gas supplies 😉
But what happens if Russia and Ukraine don’t reach an agreement and people in Crimea start dying of thirst this summer, which seems to be a possibility?
Well, there’s going to be an international outcry. Do something about it!
So do the Ukrainians bend to the pressure (no pun intended) and turn the water back on, bearing in mind they’re the ones who turned it off in the first place? If they do they will receive the gratitude of the nations of the world, which along with $1.50 will buy them a cup of coffee.
And what happens if they don’t? Well, this would be too good an opportunity for Putin to pass up. Sickened by this grisly humanitarian crisis the Ukrainians refuse to do anything about he send his troops in and turns the water back on himself. Wouldn’t be hard.
Maybe that’s the strategy.
Could be a case of who blinks first.
And it ain’t gonna be Vladimir
The energy factor again…
‘In Taking Crimea, Putin Gains a Sea of Fuel Reserves’
http://rt.com/news/155724-crimea-water-supply-ukraine/
This covers off any loss of gas business with Europe in the next few years.
‘Russia signs 30-year gas deal with China’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27503017
‘estimated to be worth over $400 billion’ – that’s a big deal.
Mini-war going on at Donetsk airport today – air strikes, paratroops etc.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10856509/Ukraine-launches-air-strikes-against-rebel-held-airport.html
Update: this is Europe today – 30 reported dead in shoot-out at Donetsk airport.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27584718
Lubos Motls reckons Ukraine will have to break in two in the end, to stop the civil war.
http://motls.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/new-russia-can-no-longer-reunify-with.html