Well known hockeyjockey Michael Mann has a post up on Huffpo, claiming the ‘hiatus’ or ‘plateau’ in global warming which he says doesn’t exist, only happened because oscillations. To prove this he introduces a new one, which he calls the NMO. I think it stands for Numerically Magical Obfuscation.
NMO is derived from some twisty manipulation of the AMO (in blue) and the PMO (in green).
Just because Mann ‘invented’ the AMO doesn’t mean he gets to fiddle with the underlying data does it?
Here’s a simple model I created a while back which reproduces HADsst3 from monthly data, including the detrended AMO (in green) (Along with the solar integral, SOI and a lnCO2 value which is presciently in line with that measured recently in Alaska, i.e. 40% lower than the ‘standard’), as seen in the top half of the graphs below. The model result is in the bottom pane (in red). It’s an R^2=0.9 correlation with the HADsst3 data (in blue).
I obtained my AMO data from KNMI and added a repeat of the earlier 1900 peaking cycle from the end of the data. But look at the difference between the data I downloaded and Mann’s new ‘improved’ AMO. He has the latest cycle much smaller than that which peaked around 1945. My data has the later cycle similar or bit bigger than that 1945 peaking cycle.
I smell a big fat rat. Mann is massaging the previously accepted data to make it look like internal oscillations are responsible for the ‘pause’ rather than the quiet Sun and lack of enhanced greenhouse effect.