July 2015 was about as ordinary as it gets

Posted: August 6, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A bit scruffy but here is an attempt to show all recent movement in one.

Image

Or as PDF (110kB half the size of the above clickable)

Thumb plots for the 17 UK regions, 5 different monthly parameters Tmin, Tmean, Tmax, Sunshine, Rainfall. Any newcomers note these are Z-scores after compensating the data for asymmetry and normal variation throughout a year in an attempt to show true weather noise. We know it rains during the autumn so that is of no interest but deviations are. (see earlier works for a full explanation)

Scotland was slightly cool and damp, Northern Ireland also. England notwithstanding brief warm patch in the south on the 1st the end result was English summer weather. Must be the cricket.

The weather is perfectly able to spike to 3 or so deviations to squawks from various people according to their personal perceptions of what is proper. You live in a variable place, is that a problem?

Post by Tim

Comments
  1. Well there must be a really special micro-climate NW of Glasgow, because I have the central heating on again and the fire going and this has been the predominant weather the whole summer.

    And it’s not that I’m getting old or anything – I’ve cut the grass once in the last month – party because it’s never dry and partly because it’s hardly grown this summer.

  2. Sorry cold is obviously getting to my brain: I live NE of glasgow and around 500miles north of the Met Office.

  3. oldbrew says:

    ‘Scotland weather: 2015 windiest year in decades’

    ‘Official records show there have been only eight calm days since the start of the year, with none in the past three months.’

    ‘This month could also turn out to be one of Scotland’s wettest Julys, with 72 per cent of the expected monthly rainfall landing in the first 15 days.’

    ‘Further miserable weather is expected in August, with a continuing pattern of strong winds and outbreaks of rain.’
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scotland-weather-2015-windiest-year-in-decades-1-3841489

    Usual numpty claiming jet stream fluctuations are all due to man, at the end of the report.

  4. tchannon says:

    No news goes down well.

    The intent was producing a dimensionless metric for a variety of parameters, an obvious thing to do not done or at least not pushed by those paid to keep an eye on the weather.

  5. tchannon says:

    Scottish Sceptic, the situation here in southern England was much the same this year and the explanation much the same.

    The heating here tripped on first thing in morning after a cold night on a number of occasions. (until we dropped the stat a notch)

    Why?
    This year there have been episodes of cool weather long enough to drop the core temperature of buildings low enough to trip the thermostat control range during diurnal variation. Perhaps wind direction has had a part to play, been a lot of unusual blows.

    This begs the question of why this is not showing in the plots, I’ve done nothing to cause that.
    Taking a guess given higher time resolution proving data is withheld by the Met Office it is to do with the crude mathematics used in meteorology. This predates for example Nyquist and Shannon sampling laws. The use of simple average produces significant artefacts and makes a mess of time. I’ve pointed this out many times and shown the effect using Met Office data, eg. using CET as a vehicle.
    At monthly nothing shows.

    Perhaps also note a z-score of zero (lower for Scotland) is relative to the whole 1910 onwards, I have not adjusted to any climatic normal. If for example there has been a long slight high bias it might seem cold today.

    One thing definite, the weather is going to spike.
    My feeling is we are going to get a warm later on, which would be welcome.

  6. catweazle666 says:

    Once the data has been properly Mannipulated, last July will take up its rightful place in climate history as the hottest, driest July since records began.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Scotland’s poor summer – BBC. Atlantic much cooler than normal they say. Jetstream issues.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33854146

    BBC TV report today quoted farmers saying it was the worst summer since 1985. Snow still lying on high ground in some areas.


    [this is a screen shot not a video link – note ‘COLD ATLANTIC’]

    Iceland suffering too.

    ‘The Iceland Monitor website here writes the North Alantic island is having its coldest summer in more than 20 years. According to the site:

    The first thirteen weeks of summer this year have been the coldest in Reykjavik in over twenty years, reveals Icelandic meteorologist Trausti Jónsson.

    “The northern city of Akureyri fares even worse – one has to go back around thirty years to find a colder summer.” ‘ [2015 – 30 = 1985]

    http://notrickszone.com/2015/08/07/cooling-atlantic-trend-iceland-sees-coldest-summer-in-more-than-20-years-cold-period-taking-over/

    North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently falling [see NTZ link above].

  8. Gail Combs says:

    Greenland, a favorite of the Warmists, is also having major problems. Steven Goddard (Tony Heller) has been following the non-melting of Greenland.

    Here are just a couple of his short posts:

    July 27, 2015 Another Day Of Heavy Snow In Southwest Greenland “This is an area that was farmed by the Vikings, but is now much too cold. Their two week long growing season is over.”

    August 10th, 2015 Greenland Melt Season Is Over