 | coecharlesdavid on Suggestions-50 |
 | oldbrew on Suggestions-50 |
| oldbrew on Battle of the skies as airline… |
 | Jaime Jessop on Battle of the skies as airline… |
 | energywise on Battle of the skies as airline… |
 | saighdear on UK wind power constraint payme… |
 | liardetg on UK wind power constraint payme… |
| saighdear on Battle of the skies as airline… |
| oldbrew on Is Net Zero a poisoned chalice… |
| energywise on Historic aurora show |
| oldbrew on Historic aurora show |
 | Damian on Historic aurora show |
| saighdear on Suggestions-50 |
| saighdear on Historic aurora show |
| oldbrew on Suggestions-50 |
Be sure to visit regularly. There won’t be any comments direct on the page, but feel free to place predictions you come across or comment on predictions here. I’ll transfer interesting ones to the Predictions! page which you can find on the top links bar or left side links bar under ‘pages’.
There are four already up there.
Tallbloke's Talkshop
BTW Richard Holle aerology.com/national.aspx Link not working.
[reply] Thanks Adolfo, fixed.
IPCC AR4 : Himalayan glaciers could be gone in 2035.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html
Is the northern hemisphere heading for a massive winter?
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189
Nice article Geoff. I have to tell you and Dirk though, the predictions page is for hairy chested, colours nailed to the mast, definite predictions only. No namby pamby ‘maybes’ ‘coulds’ ‘strong possibilty of’ or ‘good chance that’ will qualify. So I’m afraid posing a prediction by asking a question isn’t going to cut it.
Man up and stick your neck out! 🙂
lol…very hairy chested here, sure I am asking some questions but let me say quite clearly, I am expecting a massively cold winter for the northern hemisphere. My prediction on SC24/25 is absolute, both cycles beneath 50SSN (as Wolf would measure) but short term weather has many variables, the current conditions do indeed look ominous.
Hey! Nice one Goeff, that qualifies, two predictions in one post!
The return of Murphy`s Winter, in late January 2017:
Thanks Ulric, posted.
Hi ya Bloke… Neat idea!
How about this… my prediction for the next cycle: Lucifer goes walkin’ 2016-17, a bit in 2015. Global warming crowd has a clustergasm.
Gotta love Ulric, I too see a Murphy winter, but 2019, after larger VEI eruptions and another shocking low minimum to come. Snap back to our senses.
Thanks Ed, enlarge on your prediction a bit. What is the underlying hypothesis. Nothing biblical please. 🙂
Oh, ok, think we’ll get enough volcanoes to keep things fairly cool until mid 2015. Then comes the searing heat from a lack of eruption volume and the dryness from a long windy solar maximum of about a 100 ±10.
The geological record suggests that solar minimums and a weak earth magnet gives rise to nasty earth quakes and even nastier volcanoes. My prediction is hang on to your hats and get ready for cold. My other fear which I feel may be a reality will be millions in serious need of help.
MASSIVE FLOODS
The current Saturn opposite Jupiter and Uranus heliocentric configuration marks many of the most serious floods in history (1500yrs of UK and Chinese records, and even some dates from Babylon)
Summer floods occur at a temperature drop, the biggest drop this summer is from mid August.
Winter floods occur at a temperature uplift, expect a very wet November again, wetter than last November.
VOLCANIC ACTIVITY
The strong series of temperature spurts starting from late August and through September and October 2010, will give a peak in volcanic activity.
(also Southern Hemisphere floods through this warmer period)
Wayne Job says:
July 30, 2010 at 10:29 am
My prediction is hang on to your hats and get ready for cold
Current news in the SH.
@Geoff Sharp says:
July 26, 2010 at 4:44 am
“Is the northern hemisphere heading for a massive winter?”
After a silly warm November, the begining two thirds of December will be slightly below normals. The next time it dips appreciably cooler than normals is bits later in February and in March 2011, that will wet things up down under !
Ulric Lyons says:
August 2, 2010 at 9:57 pm
We are in opposition on the NH winter but agree on a big wet for southern Australia this summer. This is quite common with a La Nina coupled with a positive AAO pattern. This year we are pointing at a very large La Nina and the AAO now measuring its highest since records began in 1979. These conditions could be quite normal during times of low EUV that is associated with grand minima.
I found a typo in my prediction;
Typo found;
“”The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of
[September] not “August”.
There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.””
Is it possible to correct?
[reply] Done.
@Geoff Sharp says:
August 2, 2010 at 11:57 pm
” These conditions could be quite normal during times of low EUV that is associated with grand minima.”
I have been seeing UV levels at the top the scale in southern USA, here is what someone has been measuring in India:
“Before you read the link, I have to tell you what has been going on
here with the UV radiation and solar output. My husband has a Davis
Instruments Vantagepro II weather station that monitors temperature,
humidity, wind and rain, it also measures the solar radiation and the
UV index. We have records on the weather readings for the last
10 years. Of interest is the incredible increase of the UV radiation
and the solar radiation. For the last 10 years the highest UV
reading was a 10 and this occurred only in August, the hottest time
of the year here. The alarming thing now is that in June 2010 the
UV began to spike as high as 14. Note: this is a brand new UV
calibrated system upgraded this year! The normal high solar
radiation was 1,000 to 1,050 watts per square meter, now it spikes
between 1,200 and 1,400. In easy to understand terms, this mean
there is a great deal more solar energy and UV radiation coming to
the surface of the planet at this time. This also means that
sunburns and heat exhaustion will happen a great deal faster. It is
important that you understand this because things are not like they
used to be. Wear protective clothing and sun screen if needed.
Always wear a light colored hat if you have to be out in the sun.
The other readings that are alarming are the heat indexes. Normal
heat index was changed a few years ago (numbers were lowered) and
what is reported to you by mainstream weather only factors in
humidity and the air temperature. Our system calculates how hot is
feels by also including the wind data and solar radiation. These
are important because the wind can cool you off if it is moving and
you get much hotter if there is no wind. The solar radiation puts
extra heat into your body that has to be cooled. For the last
10 years, normal summer time heat index highs were 100 to 110 in the
hottest part of the summer. This year, 2010, we have reading at
120’s everyday and on July 15th the afternoon reading was 135 heat
index. This, in my opinion, is a very dangerous level and again you
must change your outdoor exposures to stay safe. I am giving you
this link about the thermosphere collapse because this may be one
of the reasons for these reading.”
A 179 year and 1 month return of The Great Caribbean Hurricane event, landfall Setember:
http://www.spiritus-temporis.com/1831-barbados-hurricane/
[reply] Posted. It’ll be interesting to see if you and Richard are both right or wrong on this.
I predict Leif Svalgaard will be wrong on three fronts.
He says:
SC24 will not be a grand minimum cycle.
The L&P theory is real which will demonstrate a gradual reduction where sunspots will disappear around 2015.
Solar output has little of no effect on climate.
Ulric Lyons says:
August 3, 2010 at 12:58 am
Ulric, that reads like a good novel. EUV is fully absorbed by the upper layers of the atmosphere so is not likely to be measured by “home equipment”.
EUV is measured accurately by SOHO and is currently showing very low levels, the thermosphere is also at record low levels.
Article here: http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/128
Just for fun, I’ve added the NOAA prediction.
(July 23) — For the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 14 to 23 named storms, with eight to 14 becoming hurricanes, meaning they have top winds of 74 mph or higher. NOAA says three to seven of these could become major hurricanes of Category 3 or above, with winds of at least 111 mph. The 2010 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean began June 1 and will end Nov. 30.
But with a reduced ozone layer as a result of low EUV, it may be possible to achieve higher levels of UV at the surface even if the overall level of UV emitted from the Sun is down. I think there is much to learn in this area.
@Geoff Sharp says:
August 2, 2010 at 11:57 pm
“EUV is fully absorbed by….”
As if I didn`t know, I saw that reply coming a mile off!
So it obviously is not imortant at the surface, which is why I shifted the point towards UV that is reaching the surface, and is measurably causing heating, get it?
I think Geoff already conceded that point. I predict you’ll both end up on a seperate thread for punchups if you don’t get back on topic. 😉
Yes Sir,
An Indian Summer supreme for the Northern Hemislphere, kicking in strongly from mid Setember, uplfted strongly again early Otober and continuing through the month.
Thanks Ulric, added into your previous late summer forecast.
I would say things look fairly positive for extra-tropical Alantic hurricane activity this Autumn in the UK.
23yrs can be a good `string` for certain weather events.
(re. October 1987 UK storm)
This is not a definite prediction, but worth considering.
Made a my space blog comment on the updated forecast I posted on WUWT “thoughts on the 2010 hurricane season.”
2010 detailed Hurricane forecast
Current mood: adventurous
Today I climbed out on a big limb, with chainsaw in tow, with this forecast?
There are four ingredients needed to make a large storm, available heat energy, moisture to change phase states to generate the low pressure zone, ion potentials to drive the “precipitation” (not just condensation), and a global lunar tidal effect to drive the wind patterns that tighten up, as the tropical air mass that becomes the tropical storm, moves off of the ITCZ and further away from the equator, the Coriolis effect kicks in and strengthens, to assist the formation of the cyclonic circulation along with the associated ionic drives
We have been having three of these ingredients showing up in the three named disturbances so far. However the global “pole to equator ion charge gradient” is currently stagnating, all of the seasonal drivers of these shifts in charge gradients will occur later in the year than is the”Normal” (although nonrandom pattern of distribution.)
The solar cycle has been slow, but is starting to pick up as we approach the heliocentric conjunctions of three of the four outer planets that drive the global ion potentials that create and drive these large storms. I have posted a detailed forecast of the dates to expect these storms to be produced several time over the past year.
Due to the geomagnetic effects of the increased coupling, of the solar fields extended out from flares and coronal holes, as the Earth passes through the focused area that lines up heliocentrically with the outer planets:
Neptune on the 20th of August, the Earth will have an increased homopolar generator charge potential inducted into it, then relaxed over the next two weeks (till end of August 2010) that will induce the typical discharge pattern that generates the large flows of ions that allow the global tropical storms to attain sizable effects above cat 1 – cat 2 levels, because of increased wind and precipitation production, powered by the enhanced action of the opposing ion charges swept into the cyclonic flow structure.
September 21st through 24th 2010 will see the bigger set of conjunctions that will do a much better job of driving the intensity of resultant global tropical and extra-tropical storms, that form on the discharge side of the ion flux patterns, after these dates. No the season is not over yet.
The lunar declinational tides that peak at the culmination of the declinational sweep occur at Maximum South on 19th August then heads North with tropical moisture in tow until the effects has run its course by the 2nd to 4th of September 2010, is the window of opportunity for the first weaker outbreak of global TS.
The lunar declination is Maximum South again on the 15th of September 2010, ahead of the peak of charging of the Uranus / Jupiter heliocentric conjunction of the 24th of September 2010, and it should be in phase with the movement of tropical moisture laden warm air crossing the equator following the moon, as it moves North across the equator on the 23rd of September.
The same day of the peak charging effects of the homopolar generator as the Earth responds to the increased inductive effects carried on the solar wind to affect the coupling through to the outer planets from the sun out of a large coronal hole created on the sun just for the purpose of providing the magnetic field energy needed. This powers up the cycle of positive ion charging along the ITCZ, by pushing more moisture into the lower atmosphere, to then add drive to the ion discharging phase, driving the resultant outbreak of global wide intense tropical storms, that will occur post conjunction.
By the time the Moon reaches maximum North declination on the 29th of September 2010, the global ACE values will be close to peak for the year. Inertial momentum of the global systems should carry on the enhanced zonal flow through the next two weeks.
With the continual decreasing electromagnetic coupling as the Earth moves past these outer planets the severe weather activity levels, will drop with continued attempted recovery enhancements at the lunar declinational culminations, until by the time of the synod conjunction of Venus and Earth on the 29th of October 2010, we will see a last hurrah, then a slow shift into the storms of a deep cold NH winter.
Read more: http://www.myspace.com/aerology/blog?bID=538261160#ixzz0wizPLJtR
Thanks Richard. Is this a supplement to your previous prediction, or a replacement? 😉
Did you get the Tinsley papers I sent you OK?
I got the Tinsley paper fine still haven’t got a chance to read it yet, still in the social meeting friends stage of arriving in Arizona, loaded updates to software and net applications, down loaded the ACE data daily files from FSU and about 14 to 16 large pdf files I had bookmarked to download when on high speed connection.
Organized the myriad of loose bookmarks I have saved but not filed, into new folders and sorted the obsolete ones into the trash and replaced with new.
Downloaded 16,000 frames of SOHO solar photos to include in the movie formatting I want to do, still need to find GOES photos at close time spacing and image quality for the movie idea, email sent to NCDC asking for ftp download site, or pricing of the GOES data set, no response yet, but is still the weekend.
Daughter has loaded up some new image handling software, and lots of her cd collection of music onto my computer for me.
To answer your question about the forecast it is just a detailed step by step statement of what I thinks needs to happen, to verify or falsify my basic hypothesis, and at the same time stick my neck out past my brass balls with the detailed strength and dates of occurrence to get all three of them axed in one swipe….But if it verifies well….
A busy period for you, thanks for finding the time to post your comments here. We’ll be watching with keen interest as the hurricane season unfolds.
My prediction is GISS will continue to adjust its temperature record; where do I collect my first prize?
Been watching the decay of Danielle as she ingested that large mass of cool, dry, deionized air, and she was just gutted, stopped the rapid precipitation trend dead.
I think this might be a mass of recharge effects from the earth passing Neptune, and Mercury getting ready to pass the earth, shifting the [HPGP] “homopolar generator potential” charge from pole to equator, from a discharge pattern back to a recharge pattern, it will stop, prevent, or slow the growth of Fiona, as it tries to push more +ions back into the atmosphere.
Earl might just get killed, the same way, as Danielle did, as he runs into the frontal boundary as it pushes off of the EC of the USA. Normally the NHC does not see these HPGP charge shifts, [we seldom have rapid multiple outer planet conjunctions] so they will expect to see inertia control the path and growth of Earl and Fiona (still not a TS).
I think there is a possibility that Earl will just fail to grow and wither and die when it meets this out wash of deionized cool dry air, that i think will just dilute the precipitation driven trend by the ion flux, that makes these storms grow, shift to a pattern of wither and just die.
So what if Earl just quits like Bonnie and Colin did as they faltered and did not develop?
NHC, NOAA do not foresee that as a possibility, from their forecasts they will continue on up the eastern seaboard, spreading death and destruction. IF this recharge withering of these storms occurs then the intensity comes back post September 21st, I would want to find the trail of evidence that leads back to the electromagnetic mechanism that drives the process.
IF I am wrong and no stalling of energy flow occurs as Earl runs into the front, well I need to do more thinking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html
Loop showing the brown air mass incursion.
Nice BIG animated pic of the tidal force pulling Earl and Lil sis North, trying to be headed for the remains of Danielle’s track;)
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Using a 179 year look back for the location of volcanic activity has worked this October, with a return of new eruptions in Indonesia as predicted.
Ulric Lyons predicted on Aug 2, 2010 floods in the southern hemisphere in the warmer months.
There have been large floods in December in North Eastern Australia and are still continuing now in Victoria in the South east of Australia. At the same time there have been floods in Brazil.
Good prediction but of course the loss of life is not welcome.
Ulric should do a post to clarify his prediction.
In seems that Prof Stewart Franks at the University of Newcastle (NSW) also predicted heavy rain leading to floods but by a different way. He indicted that ENSO and IPO need to come together the same way. It appears that IPO turned negative in mid 2010
see for example http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/drought-and-floods-whats-coming-next-20110118-19ust.html?from=age_ft
TB.
It would be a good thing if you asked people to make clearer predictions in terms
of actual numbers and specific places. Then do a score card, public.
Steve,
I’ve been meaning to get around to doing an audit on the success/failure of the predictions here. Thanks for the reminder. As for numbers and stuff; what is it with your quantification fixation? 🙂
Relax, let your hair down, have some fun, make a prediction.
I was thinking of making up some PASS and FAIL images in green and red to slap on the predictions once we’ve mulled over them together. That’s about as far as I’ll be going with it.
Apart from my own of course. They’ll be all sciency and everything. 😉
Dropped a copy of this spring’s March /April tornado forecast I made over on WUWT into the predictions page.
Richard Holle says:
March 2, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Tornado production is a result of Lunar declinational tides pulling air masses from more equatorial areas into the mid-latitudes, so the peak production times when they form can be predicted as the periods from Maximum North culmination to three days after, a couple of days when the moon crosses the equator headed North, and as the moon reaches maximum South declination and several days after.
These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Between the induced charge differential between the +ion concentrations riding on the more equatorial sourced air mass, established ahead of the dry line front of -ion concentrated more polar air mass, that sweeps in from the West, forcing the precipitation into the rapidly moving narrow band of severe weather from which the tornadoes form on the trailing edges.
The periods when these effects will be most likely to occur this spring,
2-25/28 for three days, which we just had, around max South.
3-5/7 slight chance of small outbreak
3-12/17 starting in Arkansas through Kentucky and the Ohio river valley
3-25/30 Starting Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas through Ohio river valley the beginning of a long period of very wet activity most of April.
4-5/8 start up of activity
with the re-enactment of the 1974 outbreak most possible in the period
4-8/13 Maps of the expected precipitation can be found on my site, bearing in mind that the tornado and severe activity usually forms in the fast moving part of the narrow frontal boundary, and not usually in the areas of heaviest total daily precipitation.
On the maps show on my site you can expect to see the tornado development in the areas with the “netted” looking precipitation patterns due to the usual nature of the part of the front where they occur.
1974 is one of the analog years for my forecast method, which is why I mention we may see a replay of that out break. It is also why I am in Mesa Az., instead of Kansas this spring.
snip
July 21, 2010 at 2:15 pm (Edit)
Steve Goddard likes forecasts. Some months ago on here I forecast that by feb 2011 UAH would be below the Dec 2007-Jan 2008 anomaly. This is based on my understanding of solar-ocean interactions and I still stand by it.
snip
How’d that prediction work out?
[Reply] I updated it in august to move the low point to this September. So, a fail for feb from the previous June, and pending judgment in sept from last aug.
[Reply to reply] How’s it looking for your prediction for this September?
[Reply] Pretty good so far.
new zealand christchurh,28th, 8.8,earth quake,nothing left.nz floods or big wave to come.nsw sydney hit by monster wave,central coast goford area,also hit.the skys will turn black as if it was nite.australia will have there biggest earth quake thats ever been on record,which will also happen in nsw.usa hit by massive hail stones.new york will be on world wide news,gun man attacks kills many.a great wall will full.japan hit by another quake,but it will be closer to china,hince the great wall.there will be a flood, but the water will be black,this could mean it will happen at night time,or dirty water.an australia will die in bail jail,she will be a female
People will contiune to be stupid.
A couple of medium term predictions..
1) The IPCC estimate of climate sensitivity will fall. Specifically, it will be lower than 3C/2xCo2 by AR6.
[The reasoning is based on history subsequent to Milikan’s oildrop experiment. Hansen’s 4.2C of 1988 still has its lingering effects – social, psychological, and poitical pressures have kept the estimate higher than the evidence warrants. It will fall..]
2) The IPCC FAR BAU prediction of a rise in temperature of 0.3C per decade will remain closer to 100% wrong than right. Specifically for at least ten years.
[BAU will continue (Carbon emissions will continue to head towards 12GtC by 2025).
In other words, the temperature rise will remain 50% too high.
This is significant because it means temperature rises fall outside the IPCC’s range of uncertainty…. 0.2 – 0.5 degC per decade]
This is also significant because the multi-scenario ‘best guess’ in AR4 (ignoring the joke scenario B1) is, coincidentally 3 degrees by the end of the century. Therefore, AR4 will also be nearer 100% wrong than right, but that is a more long term prediction. I’ll leave that open-ended, but it is still a prediction – AR4 will be just as wrong as FAR, which means someone isn’t learning their lessons!!!
P.S. If anyone wants a friendly £10 wager (or more..) on 2) I suggest using Wti temperature index, 1990 to any time in the next ten years.
P.P.S I’ll be back as soon as I can think of some shorter term predictions. This is fun! 🙂
Roger –
Apologies for a lack of clarity in 2) – A sentence seemed to vanish in the ether..
I predict the rise in temperature will remain 50% too high ie nearer 100% wrong than right.
This is really odd. I checked that before posting, and it still seemed to get ‘translated’ in cyberspace. For one thing the ‘greater than’ symbols don’t function…
I’ll try again..
I predict the rise in temperature, from 1990 will remain below 0.2 degrees C per decade, thereby making the IPCC prediction of 0.3 degrees C per decade more than 50% too high. In other words, nearer 100% wrong, than right.
I hope that’s a little clearer..
[reply] WordPress interprets the greater and less than symbols as code delimeters. Thanks for the predictions!
More long term, I’m afraid –
3) Co2 emissions will not fall to 1990 levels in the next 50 years
4) More than the total proven reserves (173 billion barrels) of Canadian tar sand oil will be produced in the next 50 years
5) Population will start falling before it reaches 9 billion
6) the second decade of the millennium (2011-2020) will be less than 0.15 degrees C warmer than the first (2001-2010) ie the predictions of the FAR will still be nearer 100% wrong than right…
[Wti again.]
7) Surprising one…. Co2 increases will never exceed a 5 year average of 3ppm per year.
8) 21st century Co2 concentrations will increase by less than 200ppm.
9) A token safe short term prediction – 2012 will not be the warmest ever.
Contrary to Anteros’s assertion (Dec. 10, 2011 at 4:32 pm), the IPCC estimate of climate sensitivity cannot fail. The “climate sensitivity” is more precisely termed the “equilibrium climate sensitivity” for by definition it is the increase in the global equilibrium surface air temperature for a doubling of the CO2 concentration. As the equilibrium temperature is not an observable, the IPCC’s estimate cannot fail. The IPCC’s fault does not lie in the magnitude of its estimate but rather in the fact that this estimate cannot fail, for the insusceptibility of the estimate to failure by reference to instrument readings places this estimate outside science.
Terry Oldberg –
I think this is a consequence of the Talkshop’s tiny writing. I predicted the IPCC’s estimate of climate sensitivity will FALL (not fail).
My assertion might make more sense with that reading 😉
The detrended temp next couple of decades:
http://virakkraft.com/Temp-future.png
Richard Holle says:
March 2, 2012 at 3:20 am (Edit)
Tornado prediction for spring with mention of heavy snow and ice storms as well, posted on WUWT.
In response to http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/se-us-severe.html
Richard Holle says:
March 1, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Once again the Lunar declinational tidal effect is responsible but goes unmentioned, The moon was maximum North declination on the 1st of March, the solar declination seasonal tide is incoming from the South adding to the effect and making the resultant tropical air mass surge two days sooner than the usual, peak production on the day of Maximum North lunar declination and three days after.
I have had daily forecast maps for this expected precipitation posted for 51 months now;
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
Details on how it works are posted on the site, in the blog/research section.
You can watch the incoming lunar tidal bulge sweep in from the Southwest in their short movie, and the back side more polar air mass brings in the negative static/ionic charges that gave added power to the temperature front to drive the condensation high enough to generate the tornadoes.
Over the next three days as the fetch of moisture slides East across Texas into the Gulf states, and the moon starts to head South again, Just as we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Mars on the 3rd, this is very likely to bring on another round of tornadoes.(they got that part right anyway) see my maps for these days as well.
Last year the big outbreak was enhanced by the heliocentric conjunction with Saturn, on the 3rd of April, which will be occurring on the 15th of April this year, so you can expect more outbreaks to occur from the 4-10-2012 Maximum South lunar declination and four day after window, another much larger 2 or 3 day burst as the moon crosses the equator on 4-17-2012. Then the heavy action through the end of the month of April, ending in last hurrah of big snows into the first week of May. Appalachian Ice storm seems to be on the 3rd through 5th of May, buy your replacement power poles early.
Solar cycle 24 appears to be peaking and the recent La Niña has just ended. The peaks of solar cycles 22 and 23 also coincided with the end of a La Niña.
During cycles 22 and 23, however, upward shifts in SST, SAT and TLT occurred during the transition out of the La Niña, and this time there’s no sign of a temperature increase. So I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the current no-global-warming trend will continue at least until the next solar minimum.
Roger Andrews – this doesn’t necessarily contradict your prediction but I think next year will be the ‘hottest ever’ [WTI..]
Even with a neutral 2012/2013 ENSO the record (especially with Hadcrut4 coming on line to ‘help’ the figures upwards a bit) is ready to be broken.. An El Nino would make it absolutely certain..
Anteros
Depending on whose data set you use the warmest year on record is either 1997, 1998, 2003, 2006, 200,7 2009 or 2010. So I’ll give it 50-50 that someone’s data set will have 2013 as the warmest year on record whether it is not. 🙂
Roger Andrews – Fair point 🙂 That was partly the reason I mentioned ( a bit obscurely perhaps) the WoodForTrees index which averages the Hadcrut/Giss/RSS/UAH datasets. I use it generally to avoid the whole topic of cherry picking and I’m not usually concerned (apart from for wagers!) with short term trends or ‘records’..
My reasoning is that unless there is a triple-dip La Nina, there is probably a better than even chance of the WTI data showing a new record… I’m not necessarily saying it means very much!
http://katesisco.wordpress.com/article/the-secret-of-the-universe-2cg23zl4o17qt-60/
Just wanted to have a 2012 up there in predictions.
Hi Tallbloke, great site
I wonder if you and your readers would interested in the following table of predicted Sunspot Cycles up to the year 2174 taken from our Solar Chord Science site. I would happy to provide in depth examination of how this table was produced later. Please note that two of the predictions have been validtaed, 2006 and this method was also used to determine the missing cycle that commenced in 1793 since verified by the finding of original data sunspots records from that era. The next cycle change is 2016, NASa is saying 2020, only four years to wait and see if it’s three in a row for SCS!
Solar Cycle Minimum Periods 1902 to 2174 Annexe 01
PCM | Time Period & | Rotation | SCM | Cycle |
Quad. | Cycle Number | Angle | Quad. | Years |
SW 1902 – 1913 14 360 NE 11
SW 1913 – 1923 15 270 NE 10
NW 1923 – 1934 16 360 SE 11
NW 1934 – 1944 17 270 SE 10
NE 1944 – 1954 18 360 SW 10
NE 1954 – 1965 19 270 SW 11
SE 1965 – 1975 20 360 NW 10
SE 1975 – 1986 21 270 NW 11
SW 1986 – 1996 22 360 NE 10
SW 1996 – 2006 23 270 NE 10
NW 2006 – 2016 24 360 SE 10
NW 2016 – 2028 25 270 SE 12
NE 2028 – 2038 26 360 SW 10
NE 2038 – 2048 27 270 SW 10
SE 2048 – 2059 28 360 NW 11
SE 2059 – 2068 29 270 NW 9
SW 2068 – 2079 30 360 NE 11
SW 2079 – 2089 31 270 NE 10
NW 2089 – 2101 32 360 SE 12
NW 2101 – 2109 33 270 SE 8
NE 2109 – 2121 34 360 SW 12
NE 2121 – 2130 35 270 SW 9
SE 2130 – 2143 36 360 NW 13
SE 2143 – 2151 37 270 NW 8
SW 2151 – 2163 38 360 NE 12
SW 2163 – 2174 39 270 NE 11
© F Bailey 2001
I knew there was going to be earthquakes in Christchurch since 1998. Left Christchurch in 2006. I knew of each quake before they came in and tried to warn people to leave the city. Correctly predicted the 3 small earthquakes on 23rd of December. 2011. There is going to be an even bigger quake and tsunami. I believe this will most likely happen on the 29th of December but if not then it will be the 29th of January
[Reply] Hi Miss S. Could you tell us more about your prediction method so people can judge how seriously to take your prediction please.
Parked here so I don’t lose it:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/monthly_temperature_country.html
Hi again and thankyou for wanting to know more. My predictions come via my mother who is in spirit…she comes to me in my dreams and demands I pay attention. She basically haunted me until I left Christchurch and has let me know of the total devastation that is to come. I have told many, many people not to buy property in Christchurch and especially so near water. I have seen the future since I was a little girl and it has not always been an easy road for me. I was able to get my son in law out of ChCh prior to the 22nd Feb quake which my mother warned me of a few days ahead. She recently came in and showed me that my partner was going to have a heart attack, which happened out of the blue and very unexpectedly. What she has said about ChCh in particular is that the focus will be in the north, but it is the wrong island. Her message is that everyone is back in time for the big one…something upsets the main divide and all hell breaks loose. I have managed to get get some of my friends to leave ChCh and I just want to be able to let people know this so they can make some decisions of their own. I have seen a very very large earthquake out at sea which creates water devastation. It scares me.
PS – the earthquake will be a 9.1
This winter will see the arctic sea ice breakthrough into positive territory and the global sea ice go positive by 500,000.
Moderate-Intense geomagnetic storm in progress.
Connection EM with Ch 556
Solar wind> 600km / s.
Today
Index Ap High latitudes 73
Ap Index Low latitudes 22
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2013Q1_DGD.txt
Previous situations :
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2012_DGD.txt
November 11, 2012 and October 13, 2012
Next connection with Ch557
wait for
Sw 6 and volcanic eruptions northern hemisphere.
Monitor the solar wind !