© Ian R.G. Wilson; Licensee Bentham Open
Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-Tropical High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia
Ian R.G. Wilson; The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2012, 6, 49-60; Queensland Department of Education and Training, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia
I notice a number of the data features cited in the paper look like modulation products. At some point I might do a little investigation of the data using my own tools, for now there is little to say.
h/t Paul Vaughan, who has considerable interest in lunar effect where I have worked with him on some analysis. I am very aware of the lunar modulation in some signal sets, tending to act as a signature. Uncovering this in terrestrial data with the presence of severe noise is difficult.
Paul has also indicated current blog discussions: –
Jo Nova’s blog, another Bloggies winner this year
[update] from comments Ninderthana links to an update here [/update]
[update] Paul thinks the Li paper referenced by Ian Wilson is particularly important. It might also give a context to do with mechanisms.
27.3-day and Average 13.6-day Periodic Oscillations in the Earth’s Rotation Rate and Atmospheric Pressure Fields Due
to Celestial Gravitation Forcing (full text PDF)
LI Guoqing, ZONG Haifeng, and ZHANG Qingyun
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
[/update]
Posted by Tim Channon, co-moderator
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
In order to recognize a value in this, one needs to know that the Moon moves in a ligating
spiral around its mean progressive orbit (as does Earth) around Earth, [see wikipedia: Libration]
A variance in Moon positions arises which influences the atmospheric flow…over
Australia and other geographic areas as well…
JS
Interesting free eBook by Ken Ring, for those interested in how the moon influences weather/climate, ‘PREDICTING WEATHER BY THE MOON’.
Available here…
Click to access PredictWeather.pdf
Thanks Tim and Tallbloke for highlighting the first of two papers in my research on the effect of Lunar atmospheric tides upon climate. The second paper in this series will highlight the global nature of these atmospheric tides and their influence upon global climate systems.
It is important to note that I am in no way claiming that the Moon’s tidal force is the sole driver of long term changes in climate. However, I am claiming that it is one of the significant players, along side other factors such as the Sun.
Up till now most climate models have not included the effects of atmospheric lunar tides on weather and climate but that will have to change in the coming years.
An update on this topic appears at:
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/open-atmospheric-science-journal-2012-6.html
[ thanks, links added as update to post –Tim]
I’ve updated the post somewhat.
Lunar tides in the ocean are every 12h 25m, modulated by Lunar phase, giving spring tides from new and full Moon, and are larger from the full Moon around the vernal equinox, and from the new Moon around the autumn equinox. Earth/Moon perigee and eclipses are of less consideration. 13.61d and 27.32d tides/tidal modulation in the ocean is not very significant, so why should it be so in the atmosphere?
Ulric,
I suspect that It’s because water and air have considerably different densities, thermal capacities and viscosity. Just a thought.
Any way, my paper does not assume to know what long-term tidal periods will dominate other than to point out that if the most extreme peak tidal strengths are responsible, we should see variations in the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) that vary with periods of 3, 6, 9, and 18 years. However, if the lunar tidal forces act in resonance with the seasonal cycles, we should see variations in MSLP that have periods of 3.8, 8.85, and 9.3 years. The data seems to indicate that it is the latter (i.e. peak seasonal spring tides) that actually occur.
“13.61d and 27.32d tides/tidal modulation in the ocean is not very significant, so why should it be so in the atmosphere?”
Aside comment, the figures are clear in LOD data, are actually doublets (and more) which I have synchronously decoded and then computes to modulation showing the lunar 18.6y, etc.
The earth is moving, therefore ocean slop. A significant atmospheric effect would surprise me, if so how is it caused.
The following is worth bearing in mind, other things going on where I have seen hints in data of eclipse factors, not written up because I think what I found is too vague. This post links to someone with interest in eclipse effect
tchannon says:
March 4, 2012 at 5:07 pm
“Aside comment, the figures are clear in LOD data,”
That may well be so, but they are not clear in the ocean tidal data. Ocean tides are as regular as the Moon, but these atmospheric tides that are referred to have a rather large latitude.
Ninderthana says:
March 4, 2012 at 3:38 pm
“However, if the lunar tidal forces act in resonance with the seasonal cycles, we should see variations in MSLP that have periods of 3.8, 8.85, and 9.3 years.”
As far as lunar tidal periods go, the biggest factor has to be the sidereal period that produces the spring/king tides. And to be be in resonance with the seasons, you need a whole number of years.
e.g. a full Moon around the vernal equinox will occur 99 lunations later (8yrs), 136 lunations later (11yrs), and 235 lunations later (19yrs).
Tide data is poor with no suitable data readily available. This would require hourly or better over many years without the site changes which are endemic to tide gauges. If properly processed data were available at a lower sample rate that would do. I am not aware of any.
(typically you will find 10 minute data restricted to a year’s worth at most)
I’ve spent some time trying to find useful tide data at various times for a particular analysis I would like to do. So far nothing. I need multiple stations with good data and geographically suitable to do differential work.
I wish.
tchannon says:
March 4, 2012 at 8:16 pm
“Tide data is poor with no suitable data readily available.”
The point is that we always know when the biggest tides will be, at full/new Moon. If it`s at perigee too, it will be bigger still, but the frequency of bigger tides at always at the half the sidereal period (29.5306d), and not the draconic or anomalistic periods.
Ulric,
You say:
As far as lunar tidal periods go, the biggest factor has to be the sidereal period that produces the spring/king tides. And to be be in resonance with the seasons, you need a whole number of years.
e.g. a full Moon around the vernal equinox will occur 99 lunations later (8yrs), 136 lunations later (11yrs), and 235 lunations later (19yrs).
It is in my paper:on page 51:
In addition, it can be shown that multiples of half of the
lunar synodic cycle (Msf) are almost exactly equal to whole
multiples of a year, for 4.0 years, 4.0 + 4.0 = 8.0 years, 4.0 +
4.0 + 3.0 = 11.0 years, 4.0 + 4.0 + 3.0 + 4.0 = 15.0 years, and
4.0 + 4.0 + 3.0 + 4.0 + 4.0 = 19.0 years.
Hence, spring tides that occur on roughly the same day of
the year follow a 4:4:3:4:4 year spacing pattern (with an
average spacing of (4 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 4)/5 = 3.8 years), with
the pattern repeating itself after a period of almost exactly 19
years. The 19.0 year period is known as the Metonic cycle.
This cycle results from the fact that 235 Synodic months =
6939.688381 days = 19.000238 Tropical years.
Ulric,
I think you might be a bit confuse here. The mean the synodic period of the Moon is 29.5306 days while the sidereal period of the Moon is 27.32167 days: The latter is not much different
from the anomalistic (27.55455 days), tropical (27.32158 days) and the draconic (27.21222 days) months. :
I get confused on the variety of names.
Point out a further tricky problem, tangled in there is the ill defined solar rotation period and that is in some data, if not clearly in terrestrial.
Ninderthana says:
March 5, 2012 at 12:16 am
sorry typo, I meant synodic.
Ulric,
If the Lunar Synodic period (29.5306 days = the time required for the Moon to realign with the Sun) is the pertinent period and there are periodic enhancements of these alignments that are associated with the draconic month (27.21222 days) wouldn’t you expect that these periodic enhancements would take place at the beat frequency of these two periods:
(29.5306 x 27.21222) / (29.5306 – 27.21222) = 346.160 days which is called the Draconic year.
This pattern realigns itself with the seasons after 19.613 Draconic years which is equal to 18.613 sidereal/tropical years.
This is twice the 9.3 years variations that I see in the peak latitude anomaly of the sub-tropical high-pressure ridge.
Ninderthana,
I understood the tidal range is bigger with phase and perigee not phase and an eclipse. Either way, it`s not a 13.6 and 27.3d cycle as the synodic period dominates all. If the Moon is making an appreciable atmospheric tide, it should be every 24hrs 50m, and larger from full/new Moon just like the oceans. If it is only a 13.6/27.3d movement, it can`t be the Moon doing it. Lindzen has looked at atmospheric tides, what does he say about how big lunar atmospheric tides are compared to the daily thermal tides? I can think of good thermal reasons for roughly 13.6/27.2d air tides, fast solar wind streams from recurrent coronal holes, they go on for months:
http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html
Ulric,
Try imagine that you go outside at midday and stare at the Sun (with protective glasses on of course). Once ever 29.5306 days you would see New Moon pass nearby the Sun roughly moving from West to East. The peak in the tidal strength produced by this crudely (West-East) alignment is what produces the Spring Tides. You are correct in saying that this is the dominant tidal enhancement.
If you conducted this same experiment (i.e. going out each day to look at the Sun at midday) over a period of months and then years, carefully recording the closest approach of the New Moon to the Sun you would notice four things:
1. The movement in elevation of the Sun by +/- 23 1/2 degrees North/South with the change of the seasons. This a a movement cycle that repeats itself once every Tropical year.
2. The North-South movement of the New Moon with respect to the Sun by +/- 5.3 degrees as the tilt of the lunar orbit appears to move through its cycle once every 346.620 days (= one Draconic year).
3. A change in the size of the New Moon as it moves from perigee to apogee and back over the lunar anomalistic year of roughly 411.8 days
4. The change in the size of the Sun as the Earth/Moon system moves from perihelion to aphelion
over one anomalistic (Earth) year.
Now think about where you are located in all this movement of the heavenly bodies.Clearly, if you were only interested in the peak magnitude of the tidal force, the factors that would most influence the peak tidal strength, in order of rapidly decreasing significance would be:
1. Spring tides at New Moon
2. Perigee-Apogee movement of the New Moon
3. Perihelion/Aphelion movement of the Earth/Moon system
However, if you are interested in the variations of the direction at which the tidal forces act upon the
upper atmosphere then you must start to take into account the other two factors:
1. The (seasonal) North-South movement of the Sun over the Tropical year.
2. The North-South movement of the New Moon with respect the Sun over the Draconic year.
This is why it is not just the 29.5306 Synodic period of Spring Tides that are important.
[Note also; Li et al. are saying that the atmospheric tidal motions are only evident in the upper troposphere (i.e. above about 3000 m) and in the stratosphere. The much larger thermal tides
operate throughout the lower atmosphere.]
.
The dates of all but two of the major floods in the Brisbane River Valley since 1825
have been separated from earlier floods by 18.6 years = Draconic Tidal Cycle.
______________________________Date of Flood____Brisbane____Ipswich
_____________________________________________Gauge_____Gauge
______________________________________________________________
1825____________= 1825.0__________1825________from historical record
________________= 1843.6 – 3 years__{1841
1825 + (1 x 18.6)__= 1843.6__________{1844________Maj_________?
1825 + (2 x 18.6)__= 1862.2__________1863_________Maj_________Maj
1825 + (4 x 18.6)__= 1899.4__________1898_________Maj_________Maj
1825 + (7 x 18.6)__= 1955.2__________1955__________?__________Maj
________________= 1973.8 – 3 years__{1971
1825 + (8 x 18.6)__= 1973.8__________{1974________Maj_________Maj
1825 + (9 x 18.6)__= 1992.4__________1991__________?__________Maj
1825 + (10 x 18.6)_= 2011.0__________2011_________Maj_________Maj
______________________________________________________________
1856.2____________= 1856.2________1857
1856.2 + (2 x 18.6)__= 1893.4________1893
1856.2 + (4 x 18.6)__= 1930.6________1931
______________________________________________________________
_________________= 1893.4 – 3 years
1889.8___________= 1889.8________1889 & 1890
1889.8 + (1 x 18.6)__= 1908.4_______1908
_________________= 1930.6 – 3 years
1889.8 + (2 x 18.6)__= 1927.0_______1927
Morning all,
This looks like an interesting discussion, thanks for posting Tim, and to Ian for bringing his in depth study here.
We’re flying home tonight, so I’ll be doing a big catch up tomorrow on all the stuff I’ve been missing.
Thanks for mindig the store while we’ve been away.
Ninderthana says:
March 6, 2012 at 3:13 am
“..the factors that would most influence the peak tidal strength, in order of rapidly decreasing significance would be:
1. Spring tides at New Moon
2. Perigee-Apogee movement of the New Moon
3. Perihelion/Aphelion movement of the Earth/Moon system”
2. should be the larger tidal range at the equinox`s. There is a higher tide from the full Moon around the vernal equinox, and from the new Moon around the autumn equinox. I know the idea that declination is important is popular, but I don`t see it in the tidal data.
Ulric,
Please look at:
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/pdo-signature-of-influence-of-long-term.html
The first map shows the equi-potential surface for the 18.6 year Nodic Tides that you are saying you don’t see in the tidal records. This sea tide is well known and it results in an up and down movement of the surface of the Central Pacific by about 7mm. It doesn’t sound like much but when you move a body of water the size of the Pacific Ocean up and down that is an awful lot of water.
The reasons why you might not see the 27.21222 day draconic tide is that most of the energy is transferred to the beat frequency between the 27.21222 day draconic month and 27.321661 day sidereal months.
(27.321661 x 27.21222) / (27.321661 – 27.21222) = 6793.4599455 days = 18.60 Sidereal years.
I think that you will find that the same is true for the tidal signals in the LOD. .
There are five significant periodic variations in the LOD that are caused by the lunar tides.
These tidal variations have periods at 13.63 days (Mf’), 13.66 days (Mf), 14.77 days (Msf),
27.56 days (Mm), and 182.62 days (Ssa) (Varga et al. [8]).
TIDAL INFLUENCE THROUGH LOD VARIATIONS ON THE
TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES
P. VARGA1, D. GAMBIS2, Ch. BIZOUARD2, Z. BUS1, M. KISZELY1
Erot = Earth’s Rotational Energy
Tidal wave__Period (days)__Δ_LOD(10^-4 sec )___Erot(10^20 J)
18.6 year____6798.37________-0.1257__________3.100_____Draconic Cycle
Sa__________365.26_________0.0222__________0.547_____Solar Annual
Ssa_________182.62_________0.1400__________3.453_____Solar Sem-Annual
Msm_________31.81__________0.0304_________0.750______
Mm__________27.55__________0.1589_________3.920_____Anomalistic Month
Msf__________14.76__________0.0264_________0.651_____Semi Synodic Month
Mf/Mf’________13.66__________0.3008_________7.4200____Semi Sidereal/Draconic Month
Mstm__________9.56__________0.0109_________0.2689____
Mtm___________9.13__________ 0.0576_________1.4209____
Msqm__________7.10__________0.0092_________0.2269____
Mqm___________6.86__________0.0076_________0.1875____
[
Link to PDF of 2005 paper
Wrong one, let me know.
–Tim]
Thanks Tim,
I think your graph looks a lot better than mine.
[ I can with a little effort copy from a PDF, upload and show, if something is important, ask –Tim]
If it’s any help I can dig out the detailed LoD analysis, produce a more useful version.
This provides a reference model for most of those factors. (phase coherent) In theory should help with signal extraction.
This leads on to the thorny problem of the sheer awkwardness of the data. Work has to be done with fast data keeping Nyquist in mind and since 18y is of interest it has to be long clean records.
Natural systems will tend to low pass the lunar signal and very likely also produce modulation products via non-linearity.
There is a whole family of effects in the LoD data, is very complex.
Another thing if tides are involved, sea tides occur *both* sides of the earth, counter-intuitive things going on. Atmospheric? I have no idea.
The rows are for factors in LoD, doublets and more.
The right hand columns show sum and difference periods where all manner of linkages are showing. The analysis is not complete either, yet more I could pull out but this is a painstaking hand guidance job. (find something, tell it to lock to that)
Ninderthana says:
March 6, 2012 at 12:23 pm
“The first map shows the equi-potential surface for the 18.6 year Nodic Tides that you are saying you don’t see in the tidal records.”
7mm is pretty small considering the range of spring tides. If there really are 13.6 and 27.3d air tides, it can`t be the Moon doing it, it`s the wrong frequency.
Ulric,
What’s the wrong frequency?
N. showed the sum and difference. This is between pairs of 13., 27, and so on where the pairs make doublets, which are two very closely spaced terms. The two beat together producing longer a longer period composite, such as 18.6 years.
In the previous comment I am showing periods as measured in LoD data.
Look at this from a different perspective: the moon returns to the same position every 18.6 years, the two really are the same thing.
It’s actually much more complex. In the above I have noted 0.58y, which comes from the earth orbit being non-circular. There a linkages between most numbers forming a system.
I’m a little surprised there is a detectable atmospheric effect but I expect there are other mechanisms at work as well.
The 27.32 declinational period is phase locked to the magnetic rotation of the solar polar magnetic fields to with in a few minutes. Maximum culmination North or South is locked in phase with the maximum magnetic polarity shifts of the solar wind from the orientation of the neutral sheet responding to the solar rotation of its magnetic poles.
The declinational movement of the moon/Earth system pivoting around its barycenter shoves the COM of the Earth above and below the ecliptic plane about 1200 Km on the ~13.6 day period, which is about the same distance the gravity of Jupiter pulls the Earth outward at their synod conjunctions.
So it would seem that the declinational tides are as strong as the effects of Jupiter but 13 times more often per year.
The tidal signals you are looking at are the height raising effects, but most of the energy is directed to the horizontal, zonal, meridional flows of the atmosphere which drives the Rossby waves and the jet streams in a four fold pattern of global turbulence waves, because the atmosphere is almost totally unbounded, compared to the ocean waves, currents, and tides. Because of the moving of the COM of the Earth above and below the ecliptic plane there are ion inductions in phase with the declinational movement, from pole to equator, with visible shifts in the ITCZ as it tries to stay on the ecliptic plane.
The lunar declinational tides come in and out of phase with the solar apparent tides in spring and fall giving rise to the meridional flow surges that give the cyclonic impitius to form tornadoes in spring to mid summer, and drive the large ionic discharge storms from mid summer to late fall through the production of hurricanes, that are started by the combined solar/lunar declinational tides, then further driven through the ionic global discharge that result from the Earth passing the point between the sun and the Center of the Galaxy.
When synod conjunction of the Earth and the outer planets occur they induce a charge gain to the point of conjunction and a discharge post conjunction, that both gravitationally and inductively drives the outward extension of the Earths orbit and the gain/loss of homopolar charges referenced from the poles, to the equator, and speeds up the rotation period of the Earth LOD shifts which seasonally peak around mid summer modulated by the periods of the synod conjunctions of the Earth with the other planets.
Back on the 3rd of march 2012 the Earth had a synod conjunction with Mars, the lunar declinational maximum North culmination was on the 1st of March, and the solar declinational movement is almost at its peak rate of change, as the peak of all three declinational tidal pules was maximum on the 2nd the USA had at last count 144 tornadoes.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120302_rpts.html
The LOD variations in the Earth’s rotations are precisely tied in both magnitude and phase with variations in the zonal (horizontal) lunar tides. As far as I am aware, the Mf (13.66) and Mf'(13.61)
are exactly what you would expect if you were looking at the semi-sidereal month for the Moon (27.32167 days) and the semi-draconic month for the Moon. (27.21222 days). There may well be linkages between the variations in the Lunar orbit and external driving forces but I think that simplest explanation for the LOD variations are the actual variation in the tidal forces of the Sun and Moon upon the solid Earth.
P.S.
I am aware of the fact that the Lunar tropical month = 27.321582241 days (time between one lunar crossing of the vernal equinox (ecliptic longitude of zero) and the next) is the almost the exactly the same as the Lunar Sidereal month = 27.321661547 days (the time for the the Moon to rotate once around the Earth with respect to the stars).
Richard Holle says:
The tidal signals you are looking at are the height raising effects.
This is not true – the movement of the Summer peak latitude anomaly of the Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge is in latitude. This primarily produced by atmospheric tides acting in a horizontal direction with respect to the ground.
I may be wrong but I believe that the declination period of the Moon is the Draconic month of 27.21222 days (i.e. the time required for the Moon to move from the ascending node of the Moon and back again). It is not the 27.32 day period. This period is related to the Lunar tropical month = 27.321582241 days (time between one lunar crossing of the vernal equinox (ecliptic longitude of zero) and the next) and the Lunar Sidereal month = 27.321661547 days (the time for the the Moon to rotate once around the Earth with respect to the stars).
Another important caveat is that my study of the atmospheric tides is limited to the Summer Months (DJF)[Austral summer Dec-Jan-Feb – TB]. Hence, it effectively precludes from consideration variations in the tilt of the Earth’s orbit and variations in the Earth-Sun’s distance, that occur throughout the year.
Of course these factors may play an important role in the bigger picture but they a controled for in the study that I have presented.
N. maybe the analysis required for all months of the year would need another dimension, beyond normal techniques.
tchannon says:
March 7, 2012 at 1:14 am
Ulric,
What’s the wrong frequency?
Lunar declination is not a dominant factor in ocean tides so why should it be so in air tides ?
The LZZ paper seems to show a circa 13.6d signal (except where it breaks down) with no daily signal in it, which would seem to me to be purely a solar forced thermal effect.
Ulric and have had this conversation before, the reason there are no declinational tides seen in the oceans is because of the viscosity and density of water, compared to air. The atmosphere is almost unbounded (except for some small mountain ridges that create deflected flows and turbulence like mid ocean ridges do in the oceans).
The daily compression of the atmosphere by the solar wind on the day side (much like the bottom of a tire running on the pavement) moves the air toward both poles, as the moon moves North/South it enhances the differential pressure of that bulge, with primary and secondary tidal bulges that have very small pressure changes but very high horizontal movement vectors, most of the flow is meridional but the Coriolis effect makes it cyclonic.
The result is waves of air movement as frontal systems that progress with the lunar declinational tides, with peak cyclonic action around the time of culmination. Like the ocean tides they are repeatable and predictable, but unlike the ocean tides they are affected by electromagnetic effects inducted into the global circuit by changes in the solar wind from solar flare and CME production, as well as the heliocentric or Synod conjunctions of the earth with the outer planets.
The beat frequencies of the lunar phase and declination yields the QBO cyclic period with some modulation by the Synod conjunctions.
The whole forecast method with maps posted on my site http://www.aerology.com is a presentation of the repeating pattern of the 6558 day periods of 240 lunar declinational cycles of ~27.325 day periods, that show the patterns of the global circulation resulting in a forecast for the current 18 year long cycle of weather.
Posted up a three cycle lunar declination tidal sample video of the global circulation effects synchronized by declinational angle from winter of 2009-2010 Dec 25-March.
http://research.aerology.com/natural-processes/lunar-tidal-movie-sample/
Richard Holle says:
March 13, 2012 at 7:16 pm
“Posted up a three cycle lunar declination tidal sample video of the global circulation effects synchronized by declinational angle from winter of 2009-2010 Dec 25-March…”
Great videos, Richard, which show the ever changing but self similar patterns of chaotic turbulence. Is there a higher resolution video available, I could watch it for hours!
I’m glad to see you recognising and factoring the direct effects of the sun’s variable charge field into long-term weather phenomenon. I love this quote from the late, great, Dr. John A Eddy, which seems to sum things up in one short insightful paragraph…
“Were God to give us, at last, the cable, or patch-cord that links the Sun to the Climate System it would have on the solar end a banana plug, and on the other, where it hooks into the Earth—in ways we don’t yet know—a Hydra-like tangle of multiple 24-pin parallel computer connectors. It is surely at this end of the problem where the greatest challenges lie.”
Sheer genius!!!
I just got a 64 Gbit Ipad to do movie work on, software loaded and will be working on a much expanded version of the sample. My web site revision will be going live some time in the next week or two, or so I am told. I expect to be busy with last minute corrections till then, after I get up on line the forecast for North America till Feb of 2014, I will be working on movie stuff.
When the Australian maps come on line I want to make a movie of the forecast vs the actual weather paralleled side by side so you can see the patterns and how well (if at all) they repeat, (cold water acid test, as I am not familiar with the usual cyclic patterns of the area, it will be what it is, let the chips fall where they may.) At least a 6 to 9 month period of the data base that centers on the switch from long drought to flooding cities, to see if this process caught it and will it work forward into the future.
Higher definition global circulation video showing the lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, three cycles from 10 degrees North of the equator to max North,then back through the cycles to the same point again. Christmas of 2009 through March 8th 2010.