Here is a plot from the Australian Bureau of Meterology (BOM) which shows subsurface water temperature in the equatorial Pacific over the last four months.
The sub surface warm pool is melting away. I think this indicates that a Christmas 2012 El Nino event is unlikely. I expect the Aug UAH anomaly will still look fairly warm though, all that oceanic energy has gone somewhere. Into the air is the obvious place. I’ll updat the post when Roy Spencer publishes the Aug UAH graph for the lower troposphere.