Dorian becomes a Category 4 monster powering toward Florida

Posted: August 31, 2019 by oldbrew in News, Uncertainty, weather, wind
Tags:

Credit: weather.com (31 Aug. 2019)


—–
UPDATE 1st Sept.: Dorian is now reported to be a Category 5 storm as it strikes the Bahamas.
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After an unusually quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season, things have suddenly become serious. Uncertainty abounds but this could become ugly for south-eastern USA, Florida in particular. This report says ‘there were fears it could prove to be the most powerful hurricane to hit Florida’s east coast in nearly 30 years.’ Or it might not hit at all – at this stage, nobody knows.

Hurricane Dorian powered toward Florida with increasing fury Friday, becoming an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm but leaving forecasters uncertain whether it would make a direct hit on the state’s east coast or inflict a glancing blow, reports Phys.org.

The storm’s winds rose to 130 mph (215 kph) and then, hours later, to a howling 140 mph (225 kph) as Dorian gained strength while crossing warm Atlantic waters.

The hurricane could wallop the state with even higher winds and torrential rains late Monday or early Tuesday, with millions of people in the crosshairs, along with Walt Disney World and President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

Though Dorian is growing in intensity, some of the more reliable computer models predicted a late turn northward that would have Dorian hug the coast, the National Hurricane Center said.

“There is hope,” Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters said.

The faint hope came on a day in which Dorian seemed to get scarier with each forecast update, growing from a dangerous Category 3 hurricane to an even more menacing Category 4 storm. And there were fears it could prove to be the most powerful hurricane to hit Florida’s east coast in nearly 30 years.

Late Friday, the National Hurricane Center’s projected new track showed Dorian hitting near Fort Pierce, some 70 miles (115 kilometers) north of Mar-a-Lago, then running along the coastline as it moved north.

But forecasters cautioned that the storm’s track was still highly uncertain and even a small deviation could put Dorian offshore or well inland.

Read more here.

Comments
  1. Gamecock says:

    Latest track shows it turning north short of Florida. Florida won’t get a direct hit.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Dorian is only moving at 12 mph so could still go anywhere.
    https://www.mysuncoast.com/2019/08/31/first-alert-weather-dorian-update

    Weather.com says: ‘Where Dorian strikes depends on how expansive and strong the Bermuda high will be.’ Higher pressure ‘would steer Dorian toward the Bahamas and the Southeast U.S.’.

    Of course hurricanes are low pressure, by definition.

  3. Graeme No.3 says:

    So. 3 possibilities
    It will hit Florida with FULL Fury,
    It will miss Florida but cause lots of damage.
    It won’t hit Florida at all.
    Let me know what will happen.
    Alternatively. if c

  4. Graeme No.3 says:

    Sorry.
    it was late here.
    Perhaps they could let us know BEFORE the end of the World happens (without invoking Heine’s conditional claim).

  5. oldbrew says:

    Monday, September 2, 2019 is Labor Day in the USA.

    The ‘second major hurricane of the 1935 Atlantic hurricane season, the Labor Day Hurricane was the first known Category 5 hurricane on record to strike the contiguous United States.
    . . .
    The Labor Day Hurricane was the most intense storm ever known to make landfall in the Western Hemisphere, having the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded in the United States—a central pressure of 892 mbar (26.35 inHg)—suggesting an intensity of between 162 and 164 knots (186 and 189 mph).’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

    Train disaster in 1935 hurricane…

  6. A C Osborn says:

    As I said to Paul Homewood “I do not believe the wind speed compared to past Hurricanes. I bet this is more of those Satellite top of Hurricane based values.
    NuSchool Earth which has been very reliable in the past Hurricanes & Typhoons shows about 120Km/h.
    Not even 120Mph.”

  7. Curious George says:

    Models are not sure if it hits Florida at all. We can’t predict a hurricane path for 72 hours. With climate, where there are no paths, we can predict for 72 years and more 🙂

  8. oldbrew says:

    Atmospheric pressure is probably a better guide to hurricane strength than wind speed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_pressure

  9. oldbrew says:

    Recent forecasts think it will go north towards the Carolinas, maybe catching northern Florida and Georgia too. Could be a Cat 5.

    https://www.mysuncoast.com/2019/08/31/dorian-nearing-cat-status-winds-now-mph-gusts/
    – – –
    Roy Spencer: If we examine the record of major (Category 3 or greater) hurricanes at landfall in Florida since 1900, and assume that Hurricane Dorian strikes Florida as a 115 kt Category 4 storm, we see that there will still be no long-term trends in either the intensity or number of major landfalling hurricanes.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/reality-check-no-long-term-trend-in-florida-hurricane-activity/

  10. BoyfromTottenham says:

    I just looked here:
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-85.49,24.52,3000/loc=-76.503,26.577

    The fastest windspeed that I could find was 135 km/hr. That is 73 knots, or 84 mph. Not worth getting out of bed for if your house is built properly for a cyclone area. Not sure where it is headed, but moving pretty slowly. Good luck anyway Floridians.

    By the way, does anyone know how accurate the earth.nullschool readings are?

  11. oldbrew says:

    Hurricane Dorian forecast to hit north Bahamas
    Devastating wind and rain could last 24 hours

    By Madeline Holcombe and Jason Hanna, CNN
    Posted: 3:28 AM, September 01, 2019

    The northwestern Bahamas is under a hurricane warning, which means “preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,” the National Hurricane Center said.

    The northern Bahamas is already starting to feel the wind and rain of the now Category 4 storm. And conditions will only get worse as Dorian stalls over the Bahamas area — with current models forecasting that it could stay for 24 hours or longer — giving it plenty of time to rain down over the islands, according to CNN Meteorologist Rob Shackelford.

    https://www.click2houston.com/weather/hurricane-dorian-forecast-to-hit-north-bahamas
    – – –
    CNN live updates here
    https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-september-2019/index.html

  12. A C Osborn says:

    BoyfromTottenham says:
    September 1, 2019 at 10:40 am
    By the way, does anyone know how accurate the earth.nullschool readings are?

    I think they use every ground sensor that they can find for their values, in the past they have been far more accurate than the over-hyped Satellite measurements.
    As historically ground sensors were used it is a far better comparison to old Hurricanes.

  13. Gamecock says:

    Problem is, for really strong storms, ground sensors are blown away with everything else.

    The Weather Channel can be counted on to hype Dorian. Even after it’s path was determined to be east of the U.S., they have kept up the wall-to-wall coverage.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Dorian has turned into a Category 5 hurricane according to CNN.

  15. phil salmon says:

    By time it hits Florida it will be a tropical storm, only. The only hurricane as usual is the storm of hysterical media jowl-flapping.

  16. Gamecock says:

    CNN gets their data from the U.S. Government. So, no, they can’t be trusted.

  17. oldbrew says:

    ITV News: Pounding waves batter Bahamas as category five storm Hurricane Dorian closes in

    The slow-crawling storm was predicted to take until Sunday evening to pass over the Bahamas, and then turn sharply and skirt up the US coast, staying just off Florida and Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday and then buffeting South Carolina on Thursday and North Carolina into Friday morning.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-01/bahamas-hunkers-down-as-hurricane-dorian-closes-in/

    Last updated Sun 1 Sep 2019
    – – –

  18. oldbrew says:

    Update 1910 BST – seems to have got even worse…

    Pressure of 911mb would be just outside top 10 all-time (measured) Atlantic hurricanes.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_pressure
    – – –
    Reuters: Dorian hammers Bahamas as second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record

    Bahamas residents reported trees snapping and docks being destroyed before the brunt of the storm arrived. The pummeling was expected to last for hours as the hurricane may slow to just 1 mph, “prolonging its catastrophic effects,” the NHC said.
    . . .
    Dorian is the strongest hurricane on record to hit the northwestern Bahamas.

    https://in.reuters.com/article/storm-dorian/dorian-hammers-bahamas-as-second-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-on-record-idINKCN1VL0FN

  19. oldbrew says:

    At the same time…

  20. oldbrew says:

    ‘What’s a Category 5 hurricane?

    Winds 157 mph or higher. A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties, urging residents to prepare with such supplies as food, water, and medicines for at least a week.’

    Published 4:27 PM EDT Sep 1, 2019

    https://eu.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2019/09/01/hurricane-dorian-latest-forecast-track-florida-noaa-update-path/2179319001/
    – – –

  21. A C Osborn says:

    Very odd that the pressure for Dorian is 911mb and yet NuSchool show it as 998Hpa.
    So where are the two groups getting their data from, not the same place obviously?

  22. oldbrew says:

    NWS had aircraft obs and satellite info – 5.34pm comment.

  23. A C Osborn says:

    More Video and photos today, when compared to the destruction of the 1926 category 3 Miami Hurricane shown here
    https://realclimatescience.com/2019/09/september-1926-miami-destroyed-by-a-hurricane/
    and the 1935 category 5 Hurricane I still question the wind speed claims.
    Are they trying to establish new Climate related records?

  24. oldbrew says:

    Forecast 93% chance of storm force winds at West Palm Beach, Florida as storm moves north along the coast. Winds to be quite a lot less severe than at present.

    Commentary: “Those islands are getting completely trashed…” 😦

  25. oldbrew says:

    Dorian’s Savage Winds May Test Mettle of Florida’s Solar Panels

    Florida…requires solar power plants to withstand wind speeds of at least 160 mph, according to the association.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dorian-savage-winds-may-test-110000566.html

  26. A C Osborn says:

    Although the wind damage doesn’t look right for a Cat 5tThere does seem to have been a very large storm surge though.

    Both Solar Panels and Wind Turbines could suffer damage if they are directly in the path of the storm.
    Solar especially if there is any hailstones

  27. oldbrew says:

  28. Gamecock says:

    The lack of rain in the outer bands on Florida is quite odd. Powerful storm; little rain.

  29. oldbrew says:

    Severe flooding in the northern Bahamas…

    Hurricane Dorian has dropped in strength to a category three storm but is now stationary and continues to batter the northern Bahamas.

    The maximum sustained winds fell to 125mph (205km/h) on Tuesday but Grand Bahama faces at least another day of heavy rain and storm surges.

    Dorian killed at least five people when it hit the Abaco Islands to the east rated category five, with 185mph winds.
    . . .
    Clint Watson, a journalist based in the capital Nassau, said people in Grand Bahama were being hit with “buckets of rain” and posting videos online showing water rising to the windows of their attics.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49561450

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