Suggestions-5

Please post ideas for new threads, tips on relevant and interesting threads elsewhere, and notes about pretty much anything you like here.

The scissors will be wielded to commercial spam, lewd suggestions, and anything else I don’t like. 8)

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    New German paper predicts:

    ‘Due to the de Vries cycle, the global temperature will drop until 2100 to a value corresponding to the “little ice age” of 1870.’

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/12/03/german-scientists-show-climate-driven-by-natural-cycles-global-temperature-to-drop-to-1870-levels-by-2100/

  2. Doug Proctor says:

    Re: SpaceX new satellite: “Sending the 6,918-lb. SES-8 satellite into its intended orbit, which ranges from 183 miles above Earth at its nearest point and 49,709 miles at its highest point, marks the company’s entry into the commercial satellite market. The SES-8 satellite is a hybrid Ku-and Ka-band spacecraft built to provide high-definition telecommunications services to customers across the South Asia and Pacific region.”

    The elliptical orbit: is this a reflection of SpaceX inability to get a satellite in a circular orbit? Why would you want such a difference in apogee and perigee? At 183 miles, you must have some fair atmosphere drag.

  3. tchannon says:

    Quick answer you can confirm or not: geostationary transfer orbit.
    [later, that may read terse, meant I’m too busy to look for confirmation the orbit is intended and later boost by part of the satellite to geos orbit has to be done]

  4. Chaeremon says:

    Fearing Government Surveillance, US Journalists Are Self-Censoring

    And how about the climatologists and other scientists who want to devour new funds because of their apocalypses?

  5. tallbloke says:

    Repost this on the US news orgs thread please.

  6. Doug Proctor says:

    Thanks re orbit type. Wouldn’t have thought to check for that. Interesting.

  7. Scute says:

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029460.500-climate-slowdown-the-world-wont-stop-warming.html
    New Scientist ask boldly on their cover whether global warming has stalled. It’s a clever way of playing devil’s advocate before trotting out all the reasons why it supposedly hasn’t stalled. Of course, they don’t mention the halt of the last 13 years, just “slowdown”, “less warming”…

    I read it in the supermarket. Wouldn’t want to fund their propaganda by actually buying it.

    Doug- they usually give it a coplanar transfer burn at apogee so that the satellite goes into a circular orbit at that altitude. I think they either do it all in one go at the end of the Hohmann transfer, or next time around after orbit characterisation and looking for any small anomalies that might need correcting. I have certainly heard them refer to the Hohmann transfer as an orbit with such and such a perigee even though it gets circularised before ever coming back. Of course, the Hohmann is just an elliptical orbit if never corrected at apogee.

  8. Doug Proctor says:

    Scute says:
    December 5, 2013 at 8:48 pm

    Thanks for the reply. I have read before of failures to achieve a higher orbit when the second stage of burn didn’t occur. I guess the engineering – and atmospheric drag component? – is insufficient for a one-two effort after launch. Guess you have to recalculate from where it actually ended up.

    Rocket science is also a step-by-step process of arriving at the “truth” (like everything you don’t proclaim to have settled)?

  9. oldbrew says:

    Flaky so-called climate science consensus keeps crumbling – if it ever existed anyway. Almost half of meteorology professionals surveyed not supporting it.

    ‘This isn’t a poll of chemists or engineers, nor is it a position statement put together by a dozen or so members of a scientific group’s bureaucracy; it is a poll of more than 1,800 atmospheric scientists’

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/11/20/the-latest-meteorologist-survey-destroys-the-global-warming-climate-consensus/

    Some people don’t want to hear about this.

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/12/06/posting-facts-violates-guardians-community-standards/

  10. oldbrew says:

    Early report from the new satellite measuring total solar irradiance (launched 19 Nov.)

    http://phys.org/news/2013-12-instrument-sun-effects-earth.html

  11. tchannon says:

    Good, it must be alive. Article says essentially nothing and links to old stuff.

    Must to a group somewhere or are they too nervous to show?

  12. Joe Lalonde says:

    TB,

    Besides the UK citizens freezing to death, you have starvation setting in…massive savings is being used up to try to keep up with inflation.

  13. Joe Lalonde says:

    TB,

    Say “it ain’t so”…

    SANTA THREATENS TO CANCEL CHRISTMAS!!!

    Shows the DESPERATION of Greenpeace to keep global warming hoax going!

  14. tallbloke says:

    What are Greenpeas smoking? Arctic ice high this year. Antarctic at record 35yr high.

  15. craigm350 says:

    Lewandowsky projecting yet again

    Media failure on Iraq War repeated in climate change coverage
    The media failed to accurately report facts prior to the Iraq War; climate reporting is failing in similar fashion

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/dec/06/media-failure-iraq-war-climate-change

    The basic understanding of the former was a bunch of lies to galvanise us into action to murder thousands/millions to so stop a non existent problem but to make a packet for the chosen, Lew, from the same branch of science that gave us ‘human experimentation proves my theory’ forgets the acquiescence of the lefty media which banged those mighty war drums as hard as the right – including the lefty BBC who made Fox look balanced. Fast forward to this year and ‘must do something about Syria’ – again lefty media banging drums. Oh how the stupid and deluded in their self imposed ideological ditches love to point fingers at each other rather than look up and seeing just who is defecating upon them.

    Doug Proctor’s recent comment far more on the money with the central theme, than a lauded paid for professor emptying his bowels in public and asking us to marvel at the steaming heap he produces.

    In an era of all appeals to emotion as drivers to action – attack Iraq because we are upset about bin Laden bringing down the Twin Towers, stop driving SUVs because cute (highly dangerous, predatory) polar bear cubs look to be stranded on an ice cube (like us, they apparently don’t like to swim in cold water), fear the weather because what your grandfather feared as a fisherman (a nor’easter) has been applied to a bad winter storm.

  16. oldbrew says:

    Tropopause theory gets an upgrade.

    ‘Astronomers solve temperature mystery of planetary atmosphere’

    http://phys.org/news/2013-12-astronomers-temperature-mystery-planetary-atmosphere.html

    ‘…at high altitudes atmospheres become transparent to thermal radiation due to the low pressure. Above the level where the pressure is about 0.1 bar, the absorption of visible, or ultraviolet, light causes the atmospheres of the giant planets—and Earth and Titan—to grow warmer as altitude increases.’

    ‘The physics, they write, provides a rule of thumb—that the pressure is around 0.1 bar at the tropopause turnaround—which should apply to the vast number of planetary atmospheres with stratospheric gases that absorb ultraviolet or visible light.’

  17. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, Tim, this may be of interest.

    Is there something wrong with the UAH satellite temperatures see these 2 posts at Warwick Hughes blog Errors in IPCC climate science.

    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2501
    and
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2496

  18. tchannon says:

    Thank heaven Warwick has at long last fixed his infected web site. I’ll put the link on the sidepanel.

    Item of interest? Yes but I don’t want to break off from what I am doing.

  19. Chaeremon says:

    Time-lapse video tracks Earth and moon during the Juno probe’s close flyby (Oct. 9, 2013).

    Caution: not an artist’s conception, just the resolution which can be achieved in outer space.

  20. Tenuk says:

    From the ‘just weather not climate’ department…

    “Snow falling. In Australia. In summer. That is all”

    Full article and more Christmasy pictures of this event here…
    http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/snow-falling-in-australia-in-summer-that-is-all/story-e6frflp0-1226775945701

  21. oldbrew says:

    Shale gas output and technology forging ahead in the US.

    ‘Shale gas opponents grasping for straws, in their failing and flailing effort to stop fracking in New York, have been latching onto a bogus theory of poor Marcellus Shale yields but Cabot Oil & Gas keeps proving them wrong.’

    http://www.nohotair.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3103:bloomberg-new-energy-finance-s-secret-report-on-uk-shale&catid=201&Itemid=417

    And UK public is denied relevant info:

    ‘What’s worse is that BNEF’s secret report (they refuse to release the document for public scrutiny) is not only used by antis, but by Jonathan Reynolds, Labour shadow minister for climate as providing proof that we should carry on regardless with UK energy policy. Maybe they’re right but we peasants can’t find out: The report is secret.’

  22. Doug Proctor says:

    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/11/28/jesse-kline-b-c-s-eco-bus-debacle/

    The hydrogen fuel of the future falls down in British Columbia …. only cost us $78 million …. and a lot of additional CO2.

  23. A C Osborn says:

    Is this the most outlandish claim for Climate Change yet.
    Climate change is causing Earth’s poles to DRIFT, claim scientists.
    University of Texas researchers think that the Weather can affect the position of Earth’s Magnetic Field, quote
    Lead researcher Jianli Chen said that ‘ice melting and sea level change can explain 90 per cent of the shift’ and that ‘the driving force for the sudden change is climate change.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2524582/Climate-change-causing-Earths-poles-DRIFT-claim-scientists.html

  24. craigm350 says:

    Is there anything it can’t do?
    Earth’s poles are drifting and climate change is to blame, claim scientists. The planet’s rotation has always wobbled slightly, and over time this movement has caused the North Pole to shift very slightly over time. But researchers now believe global warming could be drastically increasing this shift.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2524582/Climate-change-causing-Earths-poles-DRIFT-claim-scientists.html

  25. tchannon says:

    Okay, which one of you is north and which south? 😉

  26. oldbrew says:

    Latest from Van Allen Belt studies…

    ‘Scientists Solve a Decades-Old Mystery in Earth’s Upper Atmosphere’

    What was the mystery?

    ‘Ultra-relativistic electrons in Earth’s outer radiation belt can exhibit pronounced variability in response to activity on the sun and changes in the solar wind, but the dominant physical mechanism responsible for radiation-belt electron acceleration has remained unresolved for decades.’

    Now it seems:

    ‘The local wave-acceleration process is a “universal physical process” and should also be effective in the magnetospheres of Jupiter, Saturn and other magnetized plasma environments in the cosmos’

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131218133700.htm

  27. oldbrew says:

    Nuclear fusion tech advance reported here.

    ‘Project leader Arend Nijhuis: ‘The worldwide development of nuclear fusion reactors is picking up steam, and this breakthrough leads to a new impulse. Our new cables have already been extensively tested in two institutes.’

    http://phys.org/news/2013-12-breakthrough-closer-nuclear-fusion-power.html

  28. tchannon says:

    A large post on hot fusion has been in candidate draft for months here, up my street.

    HF development is very slow for various silly reasons, as I have said before it is not if but when, implying wilful slowing down what can be. Politics, unclear what or honestly why yet the logic behind Strategic matters are hard to fathom.
    I think what is taking place will come as a surprise.

    I’ll have to dig into that oldbrew to see what if anything it adds.

  29. oldbrew says:

    Lubos Motl complains (paraphrasing): ‘Dude, where’s my billion dollars?’

    Motl: ‘Just like there is a missing heat, I noticed that there seems to be a missing billion dollars somewhere because I am sure that the climate lunatics’ calculations must be accurate!’

    http://motls.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/we-received-one-billion-dollars.html

  30. Doug Proctor says:

    I have a question: what, exactly, is a a “troll”? Recently I have been lambasted as a possible blog troll, which of course is a strong ad hominem attack. But I’m confused: I thought a troll was a drive-by sniper, an angry, self-important diminisher of the work of others, one who doesn’t contribute except to deny, denigrate or dismiss.

    There are certain negative terms I will accept as applicable to me. I’d prefer to have labels accurate if I must wear them.

  31. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, this looks like very good work by Willis Eschenbach, a bit like Euan and Clive’s work.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/cancelling-the-tropical-cancellation/

  32. Scute says:

    A Happy New Year to you all. I’m sure the new year will go well for us but it seems there has already been a small blip in the first hour of the first day:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25551588

  33. Record Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. SC24
    SF=211.1
    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=27496

  34. Scute says:

    Here’s another star-system paper that might show up an exaggerated version of the processes we are trying to tease out so carefully at the Talkshop. In this case it is spin-orbit coupling (last time it was giant tides from close-orbiting giants).

    So far, this is a unique setup: a pulsar in a binary system with a third star orbiting, all within the same radius as the Earth would orbit.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12917.html

  35. Scute says:

    Spirit of Mawson comes to Boston Masachusetts.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25587091

    I wonder if the sea ice satellites will be able to add this into their record-breaking global sea ice data for January 2013:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/02/global-sea-ice-area-1-for-date-and-poised-to-blow-away-all-january-records/

    Every little helps…

  36. Chaeremon says:

    Paradoxical development: Although Germany renewables are subsidized, with billions, the power production from lignite booms as strong as never since 1990. For corporations this is a good deal. See also
    The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)
    😀

  37. oldbrew says:

    ‘In January 2010, numerous homeowners in San Antonio, Texas, stood baffled in front of their closed garage doors….No matter how many times they pressed the buttons, the doors didn’t budge.’

    The culprit? The NSA. Der Spiegel reports…

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-nsa-uses-powerful-toolbox-in-effort-to-spy-on-global-networks-a-940969.html

  38. RKS says:

    With respect to Nikolov and Zeller. – Please help if you can.

    By calculating the arithmetic average temperature of the moon N&Z arrived at the actual temperature of 197K as measured by Lunar Diviner IRRESPECTIVE of the moon’s rotational speed, thus allowing them to determine the same value for the grey body of the Earth which has a similar regolith.

    Unfortunately there are those who tend to hog discussion at Bishop Hill and who shout loudly, and rudely, that N&Z are incorrect BECAUSE of the difference in rotation of the Earth and Moon.

    Is there an accepted proof to rebut this argument as N&Z will not e accepted at Bishop Hill until this is dealt with conclusively?

  39. oh yeah…the whitehouse
    🙂

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/we-the-geeks

    Coming Up: “Polar Vortex” and Extreme Weather

    Join us this Friday, January 10th at 2:00 p.m. ET for We the Geeks: “Polar Vortex” and Extreme Weather, for a conversation with leading meteorologists, climate scientists, and weather experts about why temperatures dipped to such frigid lows this week, how weather experts turn raw data into useful forecasts, and what we know about extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate.

  40. oldbrew says:

    Mysteries of the cosmos…

    Headline: ‘Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey measures the universe to one-percent accuracy’

    Text: ‘Our results are consistent with an infinite universe’

    http://phys.org/news/2014-01-baryon-oscillation-spectroscopic-survey-universe.html

  41. tchannon says:

    RKS, am I the one who raised spin rate in the first place?

    Spin rate is a primary causal.

    Yesterday Willis at W., made a serious mistake which has the same root, a shame because he is trying hard to figure things out. For example his noting a ~30C upper limit fits with my finding from a simulator.

  42. RKS says:

    tchannon says:
    January 9, 2014 at 3:24 pm
    RKS, am I the one who raised spin rate in the first place?

    Spin rate is a primary causal.

    Yesterday Willis at W., made a serious mistake which has the same root, a shame because he is trying hard to figure things out. For example his noting a ~30C upper limit fits with my finding from a simulator.>>>>>>>>

    Are you saying Ned Nikolov is wrong when he says that the average temperature of a planet is not affected by speed of rotation?

    You will notice his calculations ignore spin and have not been challenged regarding this on any comments with reference to his Tallbloke posts.

    I’m not sure what the 30C you mention refers to. Can you elaborate please.

  43. tchannon says:

    If that is what he says, yes. He knows of the lunar simulation so I am surprised. Probably crossed wires somewhere. (include me)

    Stephan-Boltzmann is widely misapplied. It is a pure theoretic entity without a connection to the real physical world. It acts on a thermal surface. This has an impedance into a thermal capacity, essentially a thermal delay line.

    The moon is covered by a fine dust in a hard vacuum. This forms an excellent thermal insulator. Rotation speed is slow. Effect is what is measured.

    The earth is wildly different. It has no simple “surface”. Rotation rate is much higher.

    This surface is far more thermally conductive. A simulation the same as for the moon is not feasible except as a very broad brush. Last time I played with this I concluded there is an upper temperature limit… of about 30C

    I’ve mentioned the above in passing but no article. The reason is about people, it proves impossible to stop them jumping out of context as N&Z discovered. We tried and failed.
    Go back to the original N&Z article, I put it together and was discussed with the authors before publication. I’d chosen a particular head image, as it turned out the right one setting the intended discussion context. That was a broad overview, keep well away from details such as the surface of the earth, which is not addressed. Then watch what happens in comments and following articles.
    This problem of context is general, colours many “discussions”.

  44. Scute says:

    BBC Matt McGrath article headed:

    “Lack of research linking climate change and floods is a ‘scandal'”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25684933

    Professor Miles Allen said:

    “He said it was a “scandal” that the public should be denied clarity on this issue.”

    HERE, HERE

  45. Roger Andrews says:

    Clive Best has just posted an interesting article relating ice ages to lunar cycles:

    Does the Moon trigger interglacials?

  46. Roger Andrews says:

    Here’s the link:

    http://clivebest.com/blog/

  47. Scute says:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25655664

    An article on a new paper in Plos 1 showing that Emperor penguins can move from sea ice, their preferred breeding ground, to ice sheets when sea ice extent is low. To accomplish this, they display the startling ability to scale 30m cliffs.

    What the article doesn’t get (and possibly the paper authors too) is that this must be an evolved ability, ergo sea ice extent has been low on a regular basis for tens of thousands of years. The article calls it an adaptation, as if they all learned to do it last year en masse.

  48. oldbrew says:

    The EU has backed off strangling shale gas developments with red tape – for now.

    http://www.thegwpf.org/shale-gas-boost-plans-eu-laws-scrapped/

  49. http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/01/honest-crooks-get-climate-scam/

    “The warmist establishment has never shied from pocketing other people’s money, albeit with assurances that nice hotels and international jaunts are building a better, greener world. More traditional scammers have taken note../.
    The next fake conference, funded by “the UN”, will begin in London’s “Kings Park Hotel” on January 27 on the theme of an Integrated Global Response to Sustainable Development and Climate Change Proposals. You may even be provided with lifelike air-travel e-tickets.

    The scammers have done their homework and get the right inspirational tone:

    “The situation in the world’s developing countries, which contributed least to the crisis and are most severely affected , has led some economists to warn of ‘lost decades for development’ which could have catastrophic consequences for rich and poor countries alike.”

  50. oldbrew says:

    An inverted hockey stick here (Fig. 2), compared to another one that used to get some attention.

    ‘A new paper by solar physicist Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts the current lull in solar activity will continue and lead to a new Little Ice Age within the next 30 years.’

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/new-paper-predicts-another-little-ice.html

  51. carl says:

    good afternoon, I met you last night outside Pontefract town hall, I mentioned this channel on youtube http://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers?feature=watch although you are informed already i thought you might like to see someone else’s efforts. Thank you for all your hard work, research and taking your time to talk to me last night

  52. tallbloke says:

    Hi Carl, good to meet you last night. Thanks for stopping by, and for the link. I’ll have a look later. TB

  53. Doug Proctor says:

    http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/1/16/green-energy-demandineuropemaybethreateningamericanforests.html

    Louisiana forests being sacrificed to fuel Europe’s biomass boom
    by Peter Moskowitz @PeterMoskowitz January 15, 2014 7:00AM ET
    Environmentalists say swaths of Southeastern woodlands are being cut down for ‘green’ energy efforts across Atlantic

    “Drax, Britain’s largest coal plant, is in the process of converting most of its operations to biomass fuel, and other power plants across the continent are following suit. ” Yup, there it is.

  54. Scute says:

    NASA GISS 2013 global temperature report. Apparently, the 13-year flatline in temps this century is a sure sign of runaway warming. But of course, they forgot to mention the halt.
    http://climate.nasa.gov/news/1029

  55. Do you know “Alexander Sytinskaya” ?
    Interplanetary magnetic field, earthquakes, solar activity, atmospheric dynamics, etc…

    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=27624

    Bye,
    michele

  56. […] often posts links to new articles in Suggestions at the Talkshop. Let’s air a new one, of fringe interest but who knows where history […]

  57. oldbrew says:

    Shale gas cleared for take-off by the EU, ‘inviting’ member states to follow certain ‘principles’.
    Are they getting sensitive about an authoritarian image by any chance?

    http://business-review.eu/news/poll-eu-oks-shale-gas-exploitation-minimum-principles-to-be-enforced/

  58. Joe's World {Progressive Evolution} says:

    TB,

    Batten down the hatches…The next storm from CANADA is on it’s way!

  59. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, here is one for you, it is real time wind movements of the whole Earth and lovely to watch, I first saw it on Climate Depot on a blog list about it at Lubos Motl’s Reference Frame and followed it to it’s location.
    http://earth.nullschool.net/

  60. Doug Proctor says:

    On Jo-Nova there is an article about high temperature days when power consumption is high that has zilch windpower. So windpower, despite the concept of being somewhere all the time, is proven (again) false. But what stuck me is what we always wish on a hot, still, day: a breeze.

    So I wonder, is it possible that high heat in Australia is not a function of CO2 but the loss of cooling from (offshore) winds? Not direct offshore winds, but pressure systems that move the air on a continent-are level.

    Windpower vs temperatures from sunup to sundown. Would that tell the tale that the Australian government needs to install reverse turbines on the coast, to suck ocean air and fire it inland when temperatures start to go up? Powered by coal? (sarc)

    Actually, a serious question: are temps high because of ground level solar insolation under cloudless skies and no wind? Can the Australian temperature record be correlated with cloud cover and wind?

  61. Sparks says:

    Rog, I’ve made an interesting observation about the unusual orbit of Uranus in regard to the polar orientation observation, When either of the Geo-magnetic poles of Uranus are facing the sun. This occurrence always falls in the distance midway between its nearest and furthest point from the sun.

    For instance, Uranus’s furthest point from the sun is approximately 20.07 AU and Uranus’s nearest point from the sun is approximately 18.31 AU during its orbit (Which is also when Uranus’s equator faces the sun). Approximately midway between the nearest and furthest point Uranus’s poles are directly facing the sun, at approximately 19.13 AU. it varies slightly between 19.5 AU and 19.20 AU.

    I used an astronomical model based on ephemerides DE 102, verification of the observation would be great.

    Best regards. 🙂

  62. tallbloke says:

    Sparks. Interesting. We’ll ask Gerry Pease.

  63. Sparks says:

    Who Gerry Pease mate?

  64. tallbloke says:

    See abreu thread. Gerry was US naval astronomer. Top guy.

  65. Scute says:

    Sparks,

    You’re right. What you’ve discovered is the reason I ended up at the Talkshop. I found the axis orientation/apsides relationship and Googled “spin orbit” so naturally ended up here!

    I have established the relationship to be within about 1.5 degrees looking at the ephemerides. I might have an old draft comment somewhere which I didn’t post on the Why Phi? Spin thread. That was prompted by one of your comments about Uranus on that thread. It didn’t seem quite relevant but I should’ve thrown it out there.

    The silly thing is that I was going to liaise with you about it- I was even on your site the other day on the verge of letting you know because you have the knowledge to verify it. I thought I’d postpone a few weeks because I’m still working on the DA14 asteroid/ Chelyabinsk link.

    I think this Uranus spin-axis relationship is important. I believe the spin axis is locking in the apsides to its own alignment. If the apsides are precessing they would somehow be dragging the the axis orientation with them. I think it may be the case that they are not even precessing. I can’t find that information, and the precession would be small. If they are not precessing, it would mean the axis lock- in is more powerful or at least acting as a brake as the axis orientation is reluctantly turned with the apsides against its gyroscopic stable state- hence a 1.5 degree drag. We only have two Uranus orbits’ worth of ephemerides and the early part is dodgy so I don’t think they have discerned any precession rate in the apsides.

    If apside/axis lock is happening, it’s almost certainly due to the 97 degree axis orientation (poles head-on at apsides). However, my theory for how this might happen would be regarded as highly unconventional. That’s why I’ve never posted it here. Except I can’t fault it through application of plain orbital dynamics theory. I would be tentative about voicing it except in private, to you or Tallbloke, especially after the Copernicus debacle.

    The residuals in the Uranus ephemerides have always been inexplicably large (l’m referring to the time after Neptune explained the big residuals). This has never been explained satisfactorily without invoking a small Planet X but the calculations show that purported planet to be in very well-scanned portions of the sky. I went to the ephemerides to see if the residuals are at the apsides, and following a sine wave. A 1992 paper established that they did conform to a sine wave with a best fit 50 year cycle- and 42 years, half an orbit wasn’t out of the question, especially in the last century. The observations have more scatter in the 19th C and upset the curve fit a little. If my theory was correct, you would see this forward and aft drift in Uranus’ orbit at the apsides and equinoxes. It’s to the tune of half an arcsecond in the residuals, or a large fraction of the planets diameter.

    I can send you the residuals sine wave paper later but I have to dig it out and I’m a bit pushed for time right now.
    Scute

  66. A C Osborn says:

    Doug Proctor says: January 24, 2014 at 4:17 pm Asks ” Can the Australian temperature record be correlated with cloud cover and wind?”

    It has already been done see
    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.co.uk/

  67. Scute says:

    Sparks

    Here is the paper I mentioned above. It’s 1988 not 1992.

    http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?bibcode=1988A%26A…203..170G&db_key=AST&page_ind=0&plate_select=NO&data_type=GIF&type=SCREEN_GIF&classic=YES

    The graph is on the fourth page (p 173 of the journal). It’s in Julian dates so difficult to see where the peaks and troughs lie in relation to Uranus’ apsides. I looked at this several years ago and converted to normal dates. I remember that even the 50.5 year curve was centred nearly on the 1900 perihelion. If phase shifted 3 years, it was about 4 years from both the 1860 aphelion and 1900 perihelion. A 42 year curve would fit much better and isn’t out of the question according to the spectral analysis graph next to the sin wave graph. The early 1800’s refuse to fit but the observation scatter was far greater then.

    It’s ragged, but if the residuals fit, we have apsides, rotational axis tilt direction and unexplained residuals all occurring at the same point in the orbit to within 1.5 ….or 2.25 degrees:

    This NASA fact sheet has the difference at about 2.25 degrees at Uranus’ perihelion. The ascending node plus arg of perihelion add to about 255.25 degrees and the rotational axis tilt is given as 257.43.

    http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/uranusfact.html

    I calculated the correlation at the equinoxes which are about 1-2 deg off the minor axis due to the orbit ellipse eccentricty. The apsides are right on the major axis. I think perhaps the 2.25 deg apside discrepancy is therefore more correct. I’m talking about effects happening at the major and minor axes where the rotational axis is head-on and side on to the centre of the ellipse, not where it is side on to the focus (at equinox). Or at least that’s the neat, geometrical version- it could be that this tension between the sun’s gravity vector direction at equinox and not quite at the minor axis actually explains why there is a circa 2 degree discrepancy at all. If the orbit was circular, there would be no such tension and the axis apside match would perhaps be perfect.

    Scute

  68. tallbloke says:

    Gents, lets have a new thread for this rather than clutter suggestions with your excellent comment. Please repost them there.

  69. Sparks says:

    Scute,

    I’m on it.

  70. Doug Proctor says:

    A C Osborn says:
    January 25, 2014 at 11:45 am
    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.co.uk/

    Thanks for the reference to the Gust of Hot Air vis-a-vis Australian correlation of cloud cover and air temps.

    My comment about wind vs max temperatures is not quite what was done. The correlation was with cloud cover and air temps. I’d suggest that, for Australia, WIND sweeping across the continent or from the edges anyway, would be a co-factor for air temperatures along with cloud cover. Of course, cloud cover AND time of cloud cover would be important. The referenced article noted that DAYTIME cloud cover was important, not so much nighttime, which I get: 24-hour data smears what’s going on. Same with time-of-year data: the cloud cover during day of January is more important than cloud cover during July in Australia. The relationship between cloud cover and temperatures would be smeared, again.

    The cloud cover/temperature relationship would be less confused if, however, the cloud cover variations were less significant during one or other seasons. If England, for example, were generally cloudy during the winter months, than during the summer months, then the temperature variation with cloud cover would correlate better – there would be less buffering effect of snow and cold ground. If in Australia there is not a lot of cloud cover difference throughout the year, the lesser ground TSI during July than Jan would have less of an effect, creating the smearing I referenced.

    What I see here with the Gust Of work is another example of a “regional” signature, using “regional” in a temporal sense also, confusing the global signature, skewing it. We already have a huge example of this problem with Briffa/Mann’s Yamal tree ring data. When the world is generally equal in ups and downs, a subsample that has a strong signal will dominate the collapsed and averaged group.

    I call this situation the Computational Reality vs Representational Reality. Briffa/Mann’s work is computationally correct. Their use of a pattern recognition program that gives a hockey stick graph to random data is another example: the math is 100% correct BUT inappropriate for what we are trying to determine – a representation of what is happening in the world (the Representational Reality).

    I am an industrial petroleum geologist. I look for predictive patterns and am only concerned with causitive connections when it helps with predictions (of where undeveloped or undiscovered oil and gas may be). In part this is because there is not one cause (or pattern) that leads to the same result, i.e. oil or gas deposits). I also see that including data from existing pools may skew my predicitve results because they are the anomaly, not the average: the average is NO oil and gas deposits (otherwise we would be awash in oil and gas and the mid-East would still be sand and camels). My experience in oil and gas geology makes me highly suspicious of the meaningfulness of crunching global data.

    The effects of small anomalous groupings in an undistinguished large sample, I have not seen discussed. The Yamal tree chronologies would be a good example/study. Same with, possibly, the max temperatures of inland Australia. I think the sea level by satellite shows the same thing. I have previously raised concerns about CO2 increases: it is assumed that the CO2 is coming from the global emission of fossil fuels, but the data I see suggests there is an oceanic expression OF A REGIONAL NATURE.

    I don’t know how one would go about addressing this (I’m thinking outloud here). Still, is this worthwhile?

  71. Scute says:

    I was just on the BBC Science and Technology page and was asked to do a survey. I wrote the following, which McGrath, Harrabin and Shukman should presumably read. It tells them exactly where to get the data and plot the halt in temps for this century. So now there’s no excuse for omitting the truth:

    “All reports on Global Warming should include the phrase, “Global temperatures have not risen this century” [Source: Met Office Hadley Centre Global Temperatures Page. Scroll to table at the bottom, take averages of the 3 main temperature data sets for each year, 2001-13 and plot. The trend line will be negative]. The fact that you have to plot your own graph to see the halt in temperatures for the last 13 years speaks volumes as to the lengths all protagonists in the AGW arena will go to prevent the public knowing this plain fact. The licence-paying public has a right to know and the BBC has an absolute duty to tell them.”

  72. A C Osborn says:

    Doug you are correct about Regional aspect is important, somebody recently did a study of Cloud v Temp comparing Coast to Inland, coast does not correlate very well as it follows the sea temp, but inland where the surface is protected from sea wind he found much better correlation.

  73. Doug Proctor says:

    Roger,

    What lies below is a comment I made wrt Tisdale’s post about the reasons temp anomalies, not absolutes are used. What sparked my reply is Tisdale’s graphs of global temperature anomalies AND a graph that split the anomalies into Northern and Southern Hemispheres. A clear example of a computational result that misleads: the Northern Hemisphere has been warming while the Southern Hemisphere has been cooling. Not global, regional.

    Oborn (above): thank you for the comment. What does it tell us about, in this case, “global” warming when the temperatures of inland areas correlate well to cloud cover while the coast does not, with a mentioned “protection” from sea winds? It tells us the “global” (in this case the inland + coastal area) will have a temperature rise in its combined data while only the inland area did. And it also tells us that there is no “global” cause: it is the regional cloud cover and lack of cooling seawind that is responsible. Computational, yes, representational, no.

    (PS: I don’t know how to past Tisdale’s graphs, so I didn’t. Also, my current concern, the Keeling Curve:

    look at It is a Keeling Curve graph: between 1970 and about 1973 the CO2 stabilized, and between 1989 and about 1993 it moderated. I’ll bet these variations from the trend are correlatable to oceanic temperatures in specific western Pacific-Indian Ocean areas. Along with determining the areas that are responsible for the annual variations, we might be able to determine how much CO2 is coming from what specific area of the planet. Every piece that is NOT A-CO2 is a reduction in CAGW computational unreality.)

    Doug Proctor says:
    January 26, 2014 at 10:33 am

    Your graph of NH vs SH temp anomalies makes it look like the “global” warming is principally a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. If we were to take this analysis further, would we discover that “global” warming is really a western Pacific and Indian Ocean phenomenon?

    Computational Reality: the world is warming as in your second graph. Representational warming: the Northern hemisphere is warming while the Southern hemisphere is cooling.

    I find the regionalism very disturbing, but not as disturbing as the Computational-Representational problem. The Hockey Stick is a fundamental concept of financed climate change programs, but (as pointed out repeated in the skeptic blogs) the blade portion is a function of an outlier of one or two Yamal tree ring datasets and a biased computational program. The conclusion that representationally the Urals were NOT warming as per the combined tree chronologies show has been lost because the mathematics is correct.

    I do not doubt that CO2 causes warmer surface temperatures. But the regionalism that is everywhere in the datasets corrupts the representational aspect of observational analysis and conclusion-making. Even the recent argument that the world is still warming if you add in the Arctic data that is not being collected: the implication that the Arctic, not the world, is warming somehow has failed to be noted.

    We are seeing, IMHO, a large artifact in the pseudo-scientific, politicized description of climate change. The world is a huge heat redistribution machine that does not redistribute it perfectly globally either geographically or temporally. Trenberth looks for his “missing heat” because he cannot accept philosophically that the world is not a smoothly functioning object without occasional tremors, vibrations or glitches. The heat HAS to be hidden because otherwise he would see a planet with an energy imbalance (greater than he can philosophically, again) accept.

    We, all of us, accept natural variations. Sometimes things go up, sometimes they go down, without us being able to predict the shifts because the interaction of myriad forces is greater than our data collection ability and interpretive techniques. But the variations we in the consensus public and scientific world are short-term. Even the claim that the post-1998 period of pause is a portion of natural variation is a stretch for the IPPC crowd: the world is supposed to be a smoothly functioning machine within a time period of five years, to gauge by the claims for the 1975-1998 period. The idea that the heat redistribution systems of the world fiddle about significantly on the 30-year period is only being posited currently as a way out of accepting flaws in the CAGW narrative.

    The world is not, again in my estimation, a smoothly functioning machine. There are things that happen HERE and not all over the place. When the winds don’t blow and the skies are clear in central Australia temperatures rise to “record” levels: is this an Australian phenomenon or a global phenomenon? Only an idiot-ideologue would cling to the position that it is a global phenomenon, however, when those regional temperatures are added into the other records, there is a (possibly) blip in the global record. Thus “global” comes out and is affirmed by a regional situation (substitute “Arctic” for “central Australia” and you’ll hear claims you recognize).

    I do not disagree that the sun also has a large part in the post 1850 warming, nor especially in the post 1975 warming. I agree that more CO2 has some effect. But when Antarctica ices over while the Arctic melts, I consider likely that unequal heat redistribution is also a phenomenon that has lead to the appearance of a “global” warming.

    We are facing a serious error in procedure and belief wrt the CAGW debacle. The smart minds have told us that the bigger the dataset the better the end result. I hold this to be a falsehood that comes from an ill-considered view of what drives data regionally and how outliers and subsets can be deferentially determined from the greater dataset. Computational reality is not necessarily and, in the global warming situation, not actually the same as Representational reality. Just because your equations give you answer does not mean that the answer reflects what the situation is in the world

  74. A C Osborn says:

    Tallbloke, is Tim Cullen of MalagaBay fame a contributor to your group of scientists working the alternative science theories?

  75. tallbloke says:

    ACO: No. Tim Cullen is a friend and I have reblogged some of his posts which are relevant to our work, but he has not been involved in our research group. Some things we agree on, some things we don’t. Just because I reblog something doesn’t mean I endorse all of it’s content, just that I think it’s worth discussing.

  76. A C Osborn says:

    I just find it interesting how he digs up forgotten and or apparently suppressed scientific data and theories. So I wasn’t sure if he was a resource of yours or not. Thanks for the clarification.

  77. A C Osborn says:

    Paul Hudson needs to be taken to task over these comments on the BBC web site on the Weather forecasting failures.
    The heat has gone in to the Arctic or the Oceans.
    see,
    http://www.thegwpf.org/bbc-met-office-global-forecasts-warm-13-14-years/

  78. tallbloke says:

    ACO I Commented at Paul’s blog

  79. oldbrew says:

    Back to the future?

    ‘It’s hard to imagine how Londoners and the authorities would respond to a frozen Thames today. Would health and safety rules permit a party? Would the Mayor of London attempt a photo-op on skates?’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25862141

    PS the ‘zoomable’ image of the Thames fair is fun.

  80. A C Osborn says:

    Rog, interesting, that BBC page is no longer available on the link at the GWPF.
    Was there a lot of criticism?

  81. A C Osborn says:

    Ignore my comment, apparently it was down for bakup.

  82. A C Osborn says:

    Have you guys seen the latest Antarctic sea ice extent on Sunshine Hours, if it maintains that angle we could be seeing a massive increase in the minimum ice extent this summer, which would not bode well for next winter. http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/antarctic-sea-ice-extent-on-track-for-record-high-minimum-jan-28-2014/

  83. craigm350 says:

    Some food for thought for Ren and Stephen Wilde?
    Abstract
    The origin of the tropical lower-stratospheric response to 11-yr solar forcing and its possible coupling to a troposphere–ocean response is investigated using multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses of stratospheric ozone and temperature data over the 1979–2009 period and tropospheric sea level pressure (SLP) data over the 1880–2009 period. Stratospheric MLR results, comparisons with simulations from a chemistry–climate model, and analyses of decadal variations of meridional eddy heat flux indicate that the tropical lower-stratospheric response is produced mainly by a solar-induced modulation of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), with a secondary contribution from the Hadley circulation in the lowermost stratosphere. MLR analyses of long-term SLP data confirm previous results indicating a distinct positive response, on average, during the northern winter season in the North Pacific. The mean response in the Northern Hemisphere resembles a positive Arctic Oscillation mode and can also be characterized as “La Niña–like,” implying a reduction of Rossby wave forcing, a weakening of the BDC, and an increase in tropical lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature near solar maxima. However, MLR analyses of different time periods show that the Pacific SLP response is not always present during every cycle; it was most clearly detected mainly during the ~1938–93 period when 11-yr solar variability was especially strong. During the 1979–93 period, the SLP response was strongly present when the lower-stratospheric responses were large. But during the 1994–2009 period, the SLP response was much less significant and the lower-stratospheric responses were weak, supporting the hypothesis that the lower-stratospheric and surface climate responses are dynamically coupled.

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-11-086.1

  84. oldbrew says:

    Essay on the state of climate science by Garth Paltridge, an emeritus professor at the University of Tasmania and a fellow of the Australian Academy of Science.

    http://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2014/01-02/fundamental-uncertainties-climate-change/

    Recommended by Dr Roy Spencer, who comments:

    ‘Garth Paltridge also lays out in simple terms why climate forecasts can’t be trusted.
    I couldn’t find a single statement that I disagreed with. Which is strange, because I disagree with myself on a routine basis.’

  85. A C Osborn says:

    Tallbloke, E M Smith has an interesting post on the “standstill” in the Lunar Orbit, perhaps you would like to take a look, Clive Best is also working on \lunar cycles as well.
    chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/a-remarkable-lunar-paper-and-numbers-on-major-standstill/

  86. Chaeremon says:

    @A.C.O. very good find 😎 b.t.w. the paper cited is also available at arxiv.org Ancient eclipses and long-term drifts in the Earth – Moon system (was trying to access currentscience.ac.in to no avail).

  87. Joe Lalonde says:

    TB,

    Within 2 years EVERY Democratic country will be looking like the Ukraine!
    They have absolutely NO CHOICE in societal uprising or death by economic squeeze!
    The politicians are going to FAIL in EVERY attempt to fix the economies where the problem actually is and that is the banking system.

  88. GFS run < 190h.
    Sudden stratospheric warming on the way.

  89. Zeke says:

    “No need for cheap shots when good debate is in the offing.”

    ~Tallbloke

  90. oldbrew says:

    Irish fight back against industrialisation of the countryside by windfarms for the ‘benefit’ of the UK.

    “Are we going to ruin our environment to save the UK’s environment?”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25966198

  91. A C Osborn says:

    Tallbloke, I picked this up on Malaga Bay, how did it slip through so quietly?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2545552/Stephen-Hawking-admits-no-black-holes-GREY-holes.html

  92. Scute says:

    I’ve found a spinning top for you lot to play with. Should give you hours of fun:

    http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/2014/12/full/

    My NASA RSS feed said that astronomers were at a loss to explain a planet rotationaly precessing on a human timescale. So maybe the Talkshop can explain it.

    [last time I quoted a NASA RSS it unleashed an unholy blogosphere row. I can supply exact wording if required. Above is not a quote but reported speech]

  93. tallbloke says:

    Scute: Email me the release please.

  94. tchannon says:

    Met Office reporting Brittany (buoy presumably) wave height 13.1 metres average past hour, 10 second period.

    Forecast is not up to date on sea state but sensibly matches, going to be some complaining in the news west country / welsh coast. Breaking tops probably.

  95. tchannon says:

    Been watching model output for some time, not said anything, waiting for change.

    Very strange conditions. Strong out of Baltic winds often heading north around Norwegian mountains. (to do with Baltic water overturn, interesting records, looks like long term regime change)

    Slowly, might be a change. High was trying to build off Azores but now the torm tracks are moving south. This means as we are seeing the gales are moving more from the south swinging more to easterly and that might mean picking up continental weather. Probably going to point Europe more.

    Next Fri/Sat, bit of a blow is showing, peaking 60 kts at landfall west country. If the model holds. That is not gusts. Falls dead fast near land.

    Perhaps the calmer northern airs will spread further south into Scotland.

    All too far out in time.

    No sign of USA weather yet.

  96. A C Osborn says:

    More interesting work from Clive Best that fits in with Cyclic Science. Analysing the Tidal Movements.
    http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=5537

  97. J Martin says:

    Looks like that picture of spray at Sennen Cove wasn’t photoshopped.

  98. tallbloke says:

    JM: Thanks, I just picked that up off twitter.

  99. A C Osborn says:

    This from the NOAA on C£ looks to be quite important in terms of so Called Climate Sensitivity.
    http://www.c3headlines.com/2014/02/noaa-climate-impact-cumulative-co2-emissions-since-1880-nil-those-stubborn-facts.html

  100. oldbrew says:

    Another broadside for warming-obsessed climate modellers from Dr Roy Spencer.

    ‘95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong’

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/

  101. craigm350 says:

    Is it worth an FOI request to see what advice the MetO gave the EA around the time they decided to drop dredging?

    [Reply] Good man, go for it. 😉

  102. A C Osborn says:

    Willis has been called out big time on his latest anti cycle Thread.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/09/time-and-the-tides-wait-for-godot/

    [Reply] Meh.

  103. Chaeremon says:

    @A C Osborn (February 10, 2014 at 11:51 pm): sorry for commenting here in the suggestions section.

    The “sinuous” wiggling cowboy Willis has computed “tidal” force for the center of bodies (which for academics is a “point” mass with radius Zero). Thereby, Wiggly-Willis is “forcing” the moon to have no orbital inclination (as if: the earth had no poles, no axial tilt), etc. Not worth to comment, unsatisfiable premises have no merits.

    [Reply] Yup.

  104. A C Osborn says:

    Rog, have you seen that James Delingpole is leaving the Telegraph and blogging?

  105. craigm350 says:

    Yes comrade –
    11:49: Ross Hawkins Political correspondent, BBC News The Greens have called for a purge of senior government advisers and ministers who do not share the party’s views on climate change. The Green Party says any senior adviser who refused to accept “the scientific consensus on climate change” should be sacked. Leader Natalie Bennett said: “We also can’t have anyone in the cabinet who is denying the realities that we’re facing with climate change.”
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26184648

  106. oldbrew says:

    Just when you thought bad weather was the problem…

    ‘Potentially hazardous asteroid 2000 EM26 zipping by Earth on close approach on February 17’

    http://phys.org/news/2014-02-potentially-hazardous-asteroid-em26-earth.html

    Btw it’s in a near 4:3 orbit ratio with Earth (80:59 to be exact).

    Data from:
    http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.0&n=2000EM26

    More than 10000 near-Earth asteroids waiting to be found – NASA wants one:
    http://www.sen.com/news/nasa-steps-up-search-for-close-passing-asteroids

  107. Goelzer on 1nTesla….

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/jgra50733.pdf

    An analysis of heliospheric magnetic field flux based on sunspot
    number from 1749 to today and prediction for the coming
    solar minimum

    “….We have also used the results from the Dalton Minimum
    to predict the likely HMF flux and intensity from late
    2013 to 2022 including the coming solar minimum. Because
    the HMF has not fully recovered to previous solar minimum
    values that are typical of the space age years, reconnection
    and the associated flux shedding will drive the HMF to lower
    values than were seen in the recent protracted solar minimum
    of 2006–2009. The total field intensity at 1AU is likely
    to be in the range 2.5 to 3.4 nT while the Parker component
    (the part of the field that follows the Parker spiral direction)
    will probably get as low as 1 nT.”

  108. http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/2/15/mini-paradox-major-paradox.html
    This post is just itching for you and the PRP crew to add to the comments, seems as though science is progressing.

  109. A C Osborn says:

    Lord Beaverbrook I also posted the same link on the latest thread.
    It does look very interesting.

  110. oldbrew says:

    Bishop Hill post: ‘The question it leaves is: what then controls the equatorial trade winds?’

    Investigate the QBO: ‘The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months.’

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

    It gets a bit vague after that: ‘gravity waves’ etc.

  111. Chaeremon says:

    Climate Change is now [Perhaps] The World’s Most Fearsome Weapon Of Mass Destruction, according to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, and that special interests (shoddy scientists, extreme ideologues, etc) should not be allowed to “hijack” the climate debate.

    Next stop: if you don’t like “my” climate change, drop dead.

  112. Chaeremon says:

    Media Watch on Climate Change. To increase awareness and the availability of environmental information, the Media Watch on Climate Change provides a comprehensive and continuously updated account of news and social media coverage on climate change and related issues. The portal aggregates, filters and visualizes environmental content from various sources including Anglo-American news media sites, blogs, Web 2.0 platforms (Facebook, Twitter, Google+, YouTube, etc.), environmental organizations, and Fortune 1000 companies.

  113. oldbrew says:

    London Array: massive wind turbine extension bites the dust.

    ‘A planned extension to a large Thames Estuary wind farm has been scrapped because of the time it would take to assess its impact on a species of bird.’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-26258271

    ‘London Array is the largest wind farm of its kind in the world.’

  114. tchannon says:

    As excuse.
    A valid reason is excess risk to humans. Too involved to go into. Heads in sand on this.

  115. Polar vortex on the United states ?

  116. Scute says:

    Met Office and BBC say it’s been the wettest winter since ‘records began’ in 1910:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26280219

    But Paul Homeward uses stats that go back to 1766. Although he doesn’t use the Met Office definition of winter as 1st December to 28th February he is finding wetter winters and years as far back as 1768. He has the year (whole year) of 2012 as the wettest in recent times but third wettest since 1766. 2013 (whole year) is way, way down despite December contributing to the Met’s winter figures for 2013-14.

    So, Paul Homewood may well report back in a week, saying that 2013-14, Dec to Feb is the wettest on record, but at least it will be from an honest record from 1766. But that longer record may mean that there was a wetter Dec to Feb before 1910. Either way, why is the Met Office not interested in this longer record? BBC’s Shukman says:

    “A winter that can generate no fewer than five new records for rainfall before it’s even over is certainly exceptional and may prove to be unprecedented.”

    Records are unprecedented by definition so why does he say “may prove to be unprecedented”?

    I can’t put my finger on it…but I smell a rat.

  117. Chaeremon says:

    Publishers Withdraw More Than 120 Fake Papers

    “Over the past two years, computer scientist Cyril Labbé of Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France, has cataloged computer-generated papers that made it into more than 30 published conference proceedings between 2008 and 2013. Sixteen appeared in publications by Springer, which is headquartered in Heidelberg, Germany, and more than 100 were published by the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE), based in New York. Both publishers, which were privately informed by Labbé, say that they are now removing the papers.” [h/t slashdot.org]

    How about withdrawing bad climatology papers as well?

  118. oldbrew says:

    We’re all doomed…to being bombarded with unreliable temperature data:

    ‘Three new papers find most of the alleged global warming since 1850 is artificial’
    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/three-new-papers-find-most-of-alleged.html

    Basically it confirms the UHI effect but it’s compounded by inadequate computer software.

  119. oldbrew says:

    What’s really happening with US shale gas…

    ‘absolutely stunning numbers, so large as to be almost inconceivable…like describing something as a gazillion…the United States alone has enough gas to power the planet for 85 years’

    http://www.nohotair.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3130:the-us-as-global-energy-powerhouse-or-battery-for-the-rest-of-us&catid=223&Itemid=565

    ‘the US bounty is going to lead to US LNG shale gas exports at least as large as those from Qatar’

    Drilling techniques, efficiency and technology improving all the time too.

    Final word: ‘…until the rest of the world realises that they have the same great good luck the United States has.’

  120. tchannon says:

    GRRR…. anyone else get the moving junk banner covering the bottom of the WordPress screen?

  121. Scute says:

    Yes Tim

    I’m getting the banner at the bottom of my screen. Says stop NSA, take action etc. I didn’t click in case it was junk. What does it say? And now, if you’d believe it, it’s just appeared in front of what I’m trying to type. Needs to be sorted.

  122. tchannon says:

    Scute, I can see what has happened. it is a clumsy advertising banner. Rogers choice.

  123. tallbloke says:

    What! I renewed the no-ads yesterday!

    EDIT to add: Oh, you mean the NSA thing. Gone after tomorrow.

  124. tallbloke says:

    Michele: Crazy guy. 🙂

  125. Scute says:

    The Economist takes to describing sceptics as hobbyists, with a description of their activities that borders on behavioural analysis of some rarely seen sub-species of human.

    https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/02/climate-science

    The important part of the article is the new, misleading FAQ on Climate Change jointly launched by the Royal Society and the NAS. I read question 5 on the sun’s influence. All TSI and nothing else. I’m sure the rest will provide easy pickings.

    http://royalsociety.org/policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/question-5/

    PS the NSA advert banner is still here. I’m having to type blind because it’s over the text box and actually covering what I’m typing.

  126. oldbrew says:

    Northern lights moving south. Nice pics from the UK…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26378027

  127. p.g.sharrow says:

    Ever wonder about the quality of peer reviewed published scientific papers;
    http://www.foxnews.com/science/2014/03/01/over-100-published-science-journal-articles-just-gibberish/
    A fatter paycheck may be the driver, not the science. pg

  128. Zeke says:

    Inre: tallbloke tweets: http://americandigest.org/sidelines/a_quoteofcentury.jpg

    This does not reflect the tone of Vaklav Klaus’ speeches, in my experience. He is usually very circumspect in his manner of addressing other countries. He is very firm in his principles, of course, but he often qualifies his speeches with the fact that he is a foreigner and does not like to go to other countries and give advice. So I have reservations about that quote.

    I looked it up, and fwiw snope’s says:

    Origins: This item circulated in November 2012 supposedly reproduces an article that appeared in “the Prague newspaper, Prager Zeitungon.” This appears to be a misspelled reference to Prager Zeitung (“Prague Newspaper”), a German language weekly newspaper from the Czech Republic which is also circulated in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

    However, the version of this item circulated online provides no other contextual information (such as a publication date or headline) to help track down if and when it was actually published in Prager Zeitung. A search of that newspaper’s web site currently pulls up only one article which mentions Barack Obama, and that mention is an incidental reference about the level of security provided to a U.S. president.

    Even if the Prager Zeitung or some similar newspaper did reproduce this item it likely did not originate there, as this bit of text was circulating anonymously as far back as 2009 and did not pick up an attribution crediting it to the Prager Zeitung until much later.

    Read more at http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/pragerzeitungon.asp#8Fjzvei3Uu0BC2Uv.99A

    –other sources say it is an anonymous quote.

    Thanks for a great blog, Tim and Rog – goes without saying.

  129. oldbrew says:

    ‘Lord’ Monckton rubs the warmist tendency’s noses in it with the latest RSS temperature graph.

    Anyone looking for warming – nothing to see here, move along.

  130. Chaeremon says:

    Just in: U.S. federal forecasters predict a warming of the central Pacific Ocean this year that will change weather worldwide.
    http://phys.org/news/2014-03-el-nino-pacific-ocean.html

    Article includes global warming warning by Kevin Trenberth.

  131. p.g.sharrow says:

    Ecoloons lose a big one that they thought the had in the bag:

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/03/06/Chevrongate-capitalism-finally-grows-a-pair-in-the-war-on-Big-Green

    You need to read this! Their own hubris did them in. pg

  132. A C Osborn says:

    Roger, would the new PRP Journal be prepared to look at printing the Clive Best and Euan Mearns “Cloud Papers”. Clive has a new now here
    http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=5694

  133. oldbrew says:

    New research shows a way in which Earth defends itself against solar ‘attacks’.

    “Earth doesn’t just sit there and take whatever the solar wind gives it, it can actually fight back.”

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25176-earth-raises-a-plasma-shield-to-battle-solar-storms.html

  134. David in Kent says:

    Western Canadian wheat production was about 75 MT in 2013 as against a typical 50 MT, mainly because of perfect growing conditions without any extreme weather events. Is this a useful proxy?

  135. Scute says:

    The boys at GISS won’t be cowed by the halt. Apparently we’ve got to bin the AR5 Transient Climate Response temps and add 20%.

    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20140311/

    Includes this gem:

    “But since 1998, the rate of warming has been only 0.09°F (0.05°C) per decade.”

    The alarmists always say the sceptics cherry pick the peak of the ’98 El Niño (when in fact they go back to well before it). I suspect the value that NASA cites of 0.05C per decade is cherry picking the post Niño dip whilst knowing that anyone who has a smattering of knowledge about the pause, thinks they are being conservative and starting from a high point. Usual omission of the truth.

  136. craigm350 says:

    As ever the comments are were the fun starts – a reply by AW:
    Oh, people will still debate it I’m sure. Tallbloke and his group of cyclists will try to prop it up, but I’d say it pretty much has reached the end of credulity as a workable theory.
    later on Lord Monckton chips in (replying to another comment):
    We must not fall into the same poisonously intolerant attitude as the true-believers in the New Religion, who are unwilling to allow any discussion that they might regard as heretical. But the history of science is precisely the history of those who came along and said they did not agree with “settled science”… Let us be gentler with one another, and not be too harsh with those who advance theories that appear incompatible with what we think we know. The stifling of intellectual enquiry that the New Religion seeks to impose is bad enough. We must not be corrupted by it. In science, an open mind is of near-infinitely greater value than an open mouth.
    Paul Vaughan’s (tempered) response is also worth reading.

    Reminded me of ‘Won’t get fooled again’
    There’s nothing in the street
    Looks any different to me
    And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
    And the parting on the left
    Is now the parting on the right
    And the beards have all grown longer overnight…
    Meet the new boss
    Same as the old boss

  137. tallbloke says:

    Got a link to the thread?

  138. Scute says:

    Genghis Khan provides us with evidence for a widespread medieval warm period.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26523524

  139. Hi..all.
    Warwick Hughes has excellent blogs on the lies of the ABC, CSIRO and BOM climate division on the recent queensland dry spell.
    I have written a bit on this on my own blog and have supported a link to his blog
    Now l find myself in trouble.. My internet provider ( Telstra) has banned me from accessing Warwicks site. Giving an intercept string’ in the URL when l inquire with any search engine
    In fact l cannot get to read anything that includes his name

    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2775

    Wondering if anyone is having the same problem accessing his blog or sites with his name?

    I believe people can notify telstra provider of so called malicious sites.. wondering if someone is trying to shut him down?
    Could some one tell me if you can get in to his blog.

    Actually. The articles on the warped reporting of the Queensland ( Australia) 2013/2014drought event are worth a post on your blog Tallbloke..His claims if true would warrant a royal commission.

    See what you think.
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2775

  140. Bill McIntyre says:

    Happy Pi day to all

  141. oldbrew says:

    @ weathercycles

    The Wayback Machine seems to show the Warwick Hughes site expired recently, or may be temporarily offline.

    http://web.archive.org/web/20131205184932/http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/

    Managed to find page 2775 there.

  142. oldbrew says:

    Strange but true: Earth’s rotation is causing ‘zebra stripes’ in one of the Van Allen radiation belts.

    http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/van-allen-probes-reveal-zebra-stripes-in-space/

    A sceptic’s analysis by Tim Cullen:
    http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2014/03/22/inner-van-allan-zebra-stripes/

  143. craigm350 says:

    The sole two comments in response to this disgraceful piece in the Standard say it all.
    Libertarian21 hours ago
    I cannot believe that this guy is peddling the environmental card in the backdrop of human tragedy. Shameless!

    RobbedbyCarney20 hours ago
    My thoughts exactly, how insensitive can you get. Next he will say the plane disappeared because of global warming.

    MH370 shows that we must regain respect for oceans
    Roger Highfield, director of external affairs at the Science [Propaganda] Museum.
    Overfishing, pollution, warming and over-exploitation are the best-known threats to ecosystems. Even more alarming is the rise in carbon dioxide levels. The greenhouse gas dissolves in the oceans and some predict that, as a result, ocean acidity is likely to more than double in the next century. Ocean acidification threatens phytoplankton, mussels, snails and sea urchins by preventing them from building shells and lowers the seas’ capacity to absorb any more carbon dioxide. That means more of the carbon dioxide we emit will remain in the atmosphere, aggravating global climate change.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/roger-highfield-mh370-shows-that-we-must-regain-respect-for-oceans-9208004.html

  144. craigm350 says:

    Mother Jones sinking to its usual level
    One Reason It May Be Harder to Find Flight 370: We Messed Up the Currents

    http://m.motherjones.com/environment/2014/03/climate-change-malaysia-airlines-370-search

  145. oldbrew says:

    Way out there – new dwarf planet confirmed, orbiting from 80 AU to 446 AU (1 AU = Earth-Sun distance).

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26737376

    They ‘have calculated that 2012 VP113 takes 4,000 years to go around the Sun.’
    (4220y says Wikipedia).

    So the last time it was in the same part of the solar system as now was around 2200 BC.
    The orbit diagram makes the main system look very small indeed:

    http://www.nature.com/news/dwarf-planet-stretches-solar-system-s-edge-1.14921

  146. Chaeremon says:

    Two sharply confined rings of ice [yeah, frozen water], seven and three kilometres wide, separated by a clear gap of nine kilometres, found around Chariklo (a Centaur, 250-kilometres diameter, object orbiting beyond Saturn).
    http://phys.org/news/2014-03-asteroid-chariklo.html

  147. Chaeremon says:

    [OT] Humanity, In One Short Animation

    by http://www.stevecutts.com

  148. Geoff Sharp says:

    My tip for the week.

    A home button would be nice 🙂

    [Reply] Try clicking on the blog name. 😉

  149. tchannon says:

    Suggestions-5 is now archived, please use Suggestions-6

  150. tchannon says:

    Added a blog footer with link to Home page. Not pretty, works,

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