Predictions!

Welcome to the Predictions! page. I’ll update this with predictions posted on the Predictions!  discussion page .Please use the link to get to that page to post predictions and comments on them.
Successful predictions will get a big green tick. Failures will get a big red cross. Points will be given for accuracy, and points mean prizes! :)

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Ulric Lyons 31st May 2008

PROJECTIONS.

Maximum center for C24 estimated at 1yr. before the alignment center = early 2013. It will be augmented from 2010 to 2013, with peaks above C23, strongly in 2010, with August and October being likely dates for large solar flares.

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Richard Holle
www.aerology.com/national.aspx
24 July 2010

The real center of circulation (making land fall in Huston today) [it will be back in 109 days ready to talk business] was West of the rain band that they called Bonnie, Because there are no major outer planets having a synod conjunction with the earth until mid August, the precipitation was “missing” from the center of circulation, as the global circuit is still in the ion charge mode, it increases global precipitation rates post conjunctions. (Remember the flash floods in March, April?)

The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of September. There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.

I would expect to see an increase in background seismic activity 30 days both sides of the double conjunction. Just wait till they start saying the AGW caused all of the sudden activity right on (planetary scheduled) time.

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tallbloke says:

Steve Goddard likes forecasts. Some months ago on here I forecast that by feb 2011 UAH would be below the Dec 2007-Jan 2008 anomaly. This is based on my understanding of solar-ocean interactions and I still stand by it.

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lol…very hairy chested here, sure I am asking some questions but let me say quite clearly, I am expecting a massively cold winter for the northern hemisphere. My prediction on SC24/25 is absolute, both cycles beneath 50SSN (as Wolf would measure) but short term weather has many variables, the current conditions do indeed look ominous.

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Ulric Lyons says:

The return of Murphy`s winter, 1837/8, will be from late January/February 2017, earlier in January will be milder. {+179.05=112 Venus synodic periods}

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DirkH says:

My prediction stands. We’re just ahead of the curve and it’ll take 6 months to trickle down to the mainstream. ATM the entire blogosphere is abuzz with reconsidering back-radiation. It will take 6 months until the media will have to take notice. Then we will see the first headlines like “Biggest climate swindle ever.”

tallbloke, you can put that on your predictions page. Jan 2011.

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Ulric Lyons says:

MASSIVE FLOODS

The current Saturn opposite Jupiter and Uranus heliocentric configuration marks many of the most serious floods in history (1500yrs of UK and Chinese records, and even some dates from Babylon)

Summer floods occur at a temperature drop, the biggest drop this summer is from mid August.

Winter floods occur at a temperature uplift, expect a very wet November again, wetter than last November.

VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

The strong series of temperature spurts starting from late August and through September and October 2010, will give a peak in volcanic activity.
(also Southern Hemisphere floods through this warmer period)

An Indian Summer supreme for the Northern Hemislphere, kicking in strongly from mid Setember, uplfted strongly again early Otober and continuing through the month.

After a silly warm November, the begining two thirds of December will be slightly below normals. The next time it dips appreciably cooler than normals is bits later in February and in March 2011, that will wet things up down under !

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Ulric Lyons says:

A 179 year and 1 month return of The Great Caribbean Hurricane event, landfall Setember:
http://www.spiritus-temporis.com/1831-barbados-hurricane/

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(July 23) — For the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 14 to 23 named storms, with eight to 14 becoming hurricanes, meaning they have top winds of 74 mph or higher. NOAA says three to seven of these could become major hurricanes of Category 3 or above, with winds of at least 111 mph. The 2010 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean began June 1 and will end Nov. 30.

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R. Gates says

Looking back at the data from the Neutron Monitor, with the arrival of this CME, we’ve seen the cosmic ray count drop to levels not seen since before the last solar minimum. For those looking at the short term climate ramifications, as we climb to to Solar Max 24 in 2013, we’ll see increasing amounts of these CME’s, increasing solar irradiance, much lower cosmic rays, and a tenth or so of a degree added to global temps.

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R. Gates says:

UPDATE 2: WUWT commenter R. Gates notes that the Moscow Neutron Monitor is showing a huge drop in cosmic rays coincident with this CME, which is what you’d expect

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Looking back at the data from the Neutron Monitor, with the arrival of this CME, we’ve seen the cosmic ray count drop to levels not seen since before the last solar minimum. For those looking at the short term climate ramifications, as we climb to to Solar Max 24 in 2013, we’ll see increasing amounts of these CME’s, increasing solar irradiance, much lower cosmic rays, and a tenth or so of a degree added to global temps.

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tallbloke says:

richard verney says:
January 3, 2011 at 4:04 pm
It looks like the sea surface temperature variation may have bottomed out at – 0.1C and is not going to fall as low as 2008.

Unfortunately SST will continue to decline well into this year. Steeply asides from the occasional pause. It will bottom out well below 2008.

-0.32C +/-0.05 by September on Roy Spencer’s metric according to my model.

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Tornado production is a result of Lunar declinational tides pulling air masses from more equatorial areas into the mid-latitudes, so the peak production times when they form can be predicted as the periods from Maximum North culmination to three days after, a couple of days when the moon crosses the equator headed North, and as the moon reaches maximum South declination and several days after.

These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Between the induced charge differential between the +ion concentrations riding on the more equatorial sourced air mass, established ahead of the dry line front of -ion concentrated more polar air mass, that sweeps in from the West, forcing the precipitation into the rapidly moving narrow band of severe weather from which the tornadoes form on the trailing edges.

The periods when these effects will be most likely to occur this spring,
2-25/28 for three days, which we just had, around max South.
3-5/7 slight chance of small outbreak
3-12/17 starting in Arkansas through Kentucky and the Ohio river valley
3-25/30 Starting Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas through Ohio river valley the beginning of a long period of very wet activity most of April.
4-5/8 start up of activity
with the re-enactment of the 1974 outbreak most possible in the period
4-8/13 Maps of the expected precipitation can be found on my site, bearing in mind that the tornado and severe activity usually forms in the fast moving part of the frontal and not usually in the areas of heaviest total daily precipitation.

On the maps show on my site you can expect to see the tornado development in the areas with the “netted” looking precipitation patterns due to the usual nature of the part of the front where they occur.

1974 is one of the analog years for my forecast method, which is why I mention we may see a replay of that out break. It is also why I am in Mesa Az., instead of Kansas this spring.

[edit] results of this prediction updated almost daily

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I think what we are going to see is a peak effect around March 30 when Jupiter is perihelion to April 3rd when Saturn is in synod conjunction with the earth. With the Alaskan peak activity about 5 days either side of the center of that time.

Then a rotation down the Eastern edge of the ROF down the west coast of North America, for the first two weeks of April 2011. Commensurate with the large outbreak of tornadoes in the USA.

Followed by central America Haiti and Dominican republic areas, then down the west coast of South America. by the end of April 2011.

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Michele says:
January 1, 2012 at 1:12 pm

Forecasting….big earthquake 12-13 January ?

Probability…..Interplanetry magnetic field low.
small sunspots

http://www.solarham.com/stereobehind.htm

Earth-Venus-Neptune alignment.

Big question ?
I study the continent…

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Added by Tim, 20th Jan 2012
chiefio has made a prediction with a wink.

It will be interesting to see if there is a magnetic pole correlation at those spots. I did note was a solar flare 19 January:

Now if we get a big earthquake in North America in the next week or two, I’m going to remind everyone about the spot that formed over Japan just before their quake ;-)

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” William M. Connolley says:
February 11, 2012 at 8:36 am

Does anyone actually believe any of this nonsense about rapid temperature falls over the next few years? If so, I have $1k that says you’re wrong. Do you think these wise Norwegians, or the author of this post, will be interested?”

On WUWT

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/11/quantifying-the-solar-cycle-24-temperature-decline/#more-56382

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Patrick Geryl writes:

Fine tuned my predictions…
3 X flares are possible…. in the next few days!

So X flare also possible on March 19 around 12.00 UTC

For March 21 it is complicated… 2 flares are possible or 1 giant one

First one: 18.00 UTC

Second 24.00 UTC

[moderation note] If Patrick does well with these predictions I’ll put up a post for him and the rest of his longer term list here.

UPDATE: Patric sent me a new prediction today 6th April 2012:

Prediction for April 22nd, 2012

Conjunction Mercury – Pluto and the Sun

Conjunction Venus – Mars and the Sun

Opposition Uranus – Venus – Mars across the Sun

Trapezium like configuration (parallelogram) from Earth – Mars –Venus -Mercury

Triple Line Ups on April 22, 2012

On day itself: Venus – Mars – Uranus

Extra Triple Line Ups:

Neptune – Earth – Mars

Earth – Mercury – Uranus

Venus – Mercury – Neptune

Conclusion: For April 22, 2012… Because of the trapezium (parallelogram) like configuration, the conjunctions, opposition and the 3 Triple Line Ups… Large scale effects are possible on the Sun… One of these will happen: X flare, filament eruption or CME. But a powerful X flare combined with a BIG filament eruption(s) or BIG CME(s) is possible… Maybe even something reminiscent like the August 1, 2010 event… Undoubtedly this is the strangest Line Up from the planets for the first half of the year….

Will the effects be visible from Earth? That is a difficult question to answer… The Triple Line Ups with Neptune and Uranus end at the back from the Sun and are therefore not viewable from Earth… However, the positions from Venus and Mercury are on the Earth facing side of the Sun…

The trapezium configuration looks perfect around April 25… We have seen X flares appear days to 2 weeks after the perfect trapezium (see: Study of Largest X Flares Ever Recorded)… But this is a guess…

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Prediction from Ulric Lyons 5th April 2012

In a nutshell, the overview is some very warm spells through
May and June, heat waves at times, May has a brief temp` drop
from about the 18/19th, another chance for much needed rain.
Cooling and wetter from earlier in July, warming late July,then
another cooler wetter couple of weeks from mid August.

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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/01/tornado-outbreak-tracking/#comment-909920

Seems to still be as valid now as then…
Richard Holle says:
March 1, 2012 at 6:47 pm

Once again the Lunar declinational tidal effect is responsible but goes unmentioned, The moon was maximum North declination on the 1st of March, the solar declination seasonal tide is incoming from the South adding to the effect and making the resultant tropical air mass surge two days sooner than the usual, peak production on the day of Maximum North lunar declination and three days after.

I have had daily forecast maps for this expected precipitation posted for 51 months now;
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx

Details on how it works are posted on the site, in the blog/research section.

You can watch the incoming lunar tidal bulge sweep in from the Southwest in their short movie, and the back side more polar air mass brings in the negative static/ionic charges that gave added power to the temperature front to drive the condensation high enough to generate the tornadoes.

Over the next three days as the fetch of moisture slides East across Texas into the Gulf states, and the moon starts to head South again, Just as we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Mars on the 3rd, this is very likely to bring on another round of tornadoes.(they got that part right anyway) see my maps for these days as well.

Last year the big outbreak was enhanced by the heliocentric conjunction with Saturn, on the 3rd of April, which will be occurring on the 15th of April this year, so you can expect more outbreaks to occur from the 4-10-2012 Maximum South lunar declination and four day after window, another much larger 2 or 3 day burst as the moon crosses the equator on 4-17-2012. Then the heavy action through the end of the month of April, ending in last hurrah of big snows into the first week of May. Appalachian Ice storm seems to be on the 3rd through 5th of May, buy your replacement power poles early.


Ulric Lyons says:

June 26, 2013 at 10:11 pm

It was done, I made a deterministic solar based forecast for at least 3 weeks very cold conditions for March. The forecast was based entirely on heliocentric planetary analysis. Next winter has a long intense cold shot from the second week of January to the end of Feb/early March.