Mann Blocks Lew, Loses Betts

Posted: February 28, 2016 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

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Tee Hee

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:
    February 28, 2016 at 10:48 am

    So when temperatures trend upwards that’s ‘man-made warming’ but when they don’t it’s ‘not a pause, but a routine fluctuation’.

    Logic fail.

  2. manicbeancounter says:
    February 28, 2016 at 11:54 am

    Oldbrew
    There is a more fundamental logic at work here. CAGW is an a priori scientific truth. Evidence or data that conforms to that truth is valid, whilst data that does not conform is either in error or noise. Expert scientists are currently working very hard on determining which is the case. Extensive torturing of the data has yielded some confessions (e.g. Karl et al), with new implements being worked upon that will extract the whole truth. They are also beginning to understand that when natural fluctuation cycle changes phase the rate of warming will be phenomenal. That means the nasty consequences of all the rapid warming will be much worse than had ever been imagined.

  3. oldbrew says:
    February 28, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    MBC: that’s one way of looking at it. Another way is to ask why natural fluctuations can’t work in both directions i.e. warming or cooling. Plenty of evidence of both in the pre-industrial past.

    ‘CAGW is an a priori scientific truth.’ – Since when?

  4. JuergenK says:
    February 28, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    @manicbeancounter: You forgot the /sarc tag 😉

  5. tom0mason says:
    February 28, 2016 at 9:44 pm

    Maybe they should have listened to Flanders & Swann – ‘First And Second Law’ before all this worrisome hypothecating and expensive computer modeling.

  6. oldbrew says:
    February 28, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    ‘Persistent near-tropical warmth on the Antarctic continent during the early Eocene epoch’
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v488/n7409/full/nature11300.html

    How much coal, gas and oil was being burnt in those days?

    ‘Notably, winters were extremely mild (warmer than 10 °C) and essentially frost-free despite polar darkness’

    How did that work?

  7. oldbrew says:
    February 29, 2016 at 12:28 pm

    Relationship between Solar Cycle Length and Global Temperature Anomalies
    Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather, Inc.
    http://www.frontierweather.com

    ‘weak and long solar cycles lead to cooling on a global basis while short and intense
    solar cycles tend to result in warming on a global basis.’

    ‘the warm 1996‐2008 period followed the shortest solar cycle during the last 150 years.’

    ‘Since CO2 levels have been rising during a time of increasing solar activity, untangling the impacts of each on the global climate system is difficult.  But, with rising CO2 levels and decreasing solar activity during the upcoming decade, the impacts of both should become more evident.’

    Click to access SolarCycleLengthandGlobalTemperatureAnomalies1.pdf

      

  8. oldbrew says:
    February 29, 2016 at 12:44 pm

    NASA says: ‘Another indicator of the level of solar activity is the flux of radio emission from the Sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz frequency). This flux has been measured daily since 1947. It is an important indicator of solar activity because it tends to follow the changes in the solar ultraviolet that influence the Earth’s upper atmosphere and ionosphere.’
    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

  9. tallbloke says:
    March 3, 2016 at 9:12 pm

    Mann distancing himself from Karl, and now Yale has pulled the plug on its Cli-enviro institute
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/03/3210996/

    With sweet serendipity, the heartbreaking announcement on the university’s website coincides with the news that the institute’s founding head Rajendra Pachauri has been formally charged with sexual harrassment.

    How different things were in 2009 when the Institute was launched, with great pride and fanfare, by Yale University president Richard C Levin.

    YCEI will provide seed grants, support postgraduate study, sponsor conferences and workshops, and foster interdisciplinary research spanning from basic atmospheric science to public policy. Nearly 100 Yale scientists, engineers, physicians, social scientists and policy experts have joined together to launch the enterprise.

    In those days, man-made global warming was still very much the fashionable cause of the moment and Pachauri – a former railway engineer, novelist, vegetarian and tantric sex guru – was at the peak of his influence as chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  10. p.g.sharrow says:
    March 3, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    The Father of this movement, Marice Strong dies and everything begins to collapse. “Cause and effect” or crap happens?

    You can fool all of the people some of the time,
    Some of the people all of the time.
    At some point most of the fools wake up!
    and claim they knew it was wrong all along.

    About time. 😎 …pg

  11. oldmanK says:
    March 3, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    oldbrew, your 10:53 link above makes an interesting statement:

    quote ” Notably, winters were extremely mild (warmer than 10 °C) and essentially frost-free despite polar darkness, which provides a critical new constraint for the validation of climate models and for understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to increased carbon dioxide forcing.”

    When it says ‘ despite polar darkness’ it is making a gross assumption. How do they know it wasn’t bright sunlight? Paul V link from another thread, subject “Low-latitude glaciation and rapid changes in the Earth’s obliquity explained by obliquity-oblateness feedback” suggest a possible obliquity of >54deg.
    Link

  12. oldbrew says:
    March 3, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    Yes, the paper abstract also says: ‘A high obliquity for the early Earth may also provide a natural explanation for the present inclination of the lunar orbit with respect to the ecliptic (5°), which is otherwise difficult to explain.’