New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming

Posted: August 26, 2020 by oldbrew in Critique, modelling, predictions, research, Temperature
Tags:

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Quote re. the Canadian climate model…
The sticker should read: “WARNING! This model predicts atmospheric warming roughly 7 times larger than observed trends. Use of this model for anything other than entertainment purposes is not recommended.”

Climate Etc.

by Ross McKitrick

Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

View original post 1,653 more words

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    The ‘climate emergency’ only exists in models.
    – – –
    Ross McKitrick: ‘John and I were able to examine 38 models while Mitchell et al. looked at 48 models. The sheer number makes one wonder why so many are needed, if the science is settled.’
    – – –
    Mitchell et al: ‘we note here for the record that from 1998 to 2014, the CMIP5 models warm, on average 4 to 5 times faster than the observations, and in one model the warming is 10 times larger than the observations.’

    That looks like ‘the pause’ i.e. the period between the two big El Niños of 1997-98 and 2015-16.

  2. JB says:

    What is 1-2K difference compared to seasonal shifts, cooling, and the resultant loss of citrus and staple crops? That’s humanity’s first defense against disease and economic distress.

  3. ivan says:

    Those that put their trust in unvalidated computer models must remember the first law of computing – Garbage In = Garbage Out, especially with all the ‘adjustments’ to all of the temperature data sets.

  4. stpaulchuck says:

    my favorite hit on computer models:
    ————–
    “Computer models are no different from fashion models. They’re seductive, unreliable, easily corrupted, and they lead sensible people to make fools of themselves” John in OK

    https://dilbert.com/strip/2017-05-14

  5. Phoenix44 says:

    Lots of models need to be run lots of times to get a large range that sometimes intersects with reality. Quite why given that anybody thinks they are “proof” is beyond me.

  6. oldbrew says:

    AUGUST 26, 2020
    Atmospheric scientists study fires to resolve ice question in climate models

    Atmospheric models have overestimated the role of black carbon as an ice-nucleating particle.

    “This provides a clearer picture of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, that might impact clouds and precipitation in a future climate,” Schill said.

    The study eliminates black carbon as the primary suspect for ice formation from smoke particles but leaves many unanswered questions about how biomass burning affects clouds.

    “Black carbon is only one component of a complex soup that makes up smoke,” Schill said. “We know that something in smoke can form ice particles, but we do not fully understand what these cloud seeds are.”
    [bold added]

    https://phys.org/news/2020-08-atmospheric-scientists-ice-climate.html

  7. oldbrew says:

    Even with Laura, Louisiana Hurricanes Have Not Increased Since 1851
    August 26th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    If we examine all of the hurricanes affecting Louisiana in the last 170 years in the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT database (as summarized on Wikipedia) we find that there has been no long-term increase in either the number of hurricanes or their intensity since 1851.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/08/even-with-laura-louisiana-hurricanes-have-not-increased-since-1851/
    – – –
    Of course alarmoholics will squeal anyway.

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