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Credit: Ian Wilson
The Easterly Trade Winds Over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Have Disappeared Over the Last 5 Days or So!
If you want to find out why, go to his own blog post: here.
– – –
The trail of clues goes on from there!
Tallbloke's Talkshop
Thank you, Rog and oldbrew for the shout out!
It’s all a matter of lunar tidal geometry at this point, as we are currently experiencing a series of Perigean/Apogean New and Full moons occurring near the Earth’s equator (Aug/Sept/Oct 2019).
It will interesting to see if the next few Madden Julian Oscillations (MJOs) in Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan
get the ball rolling and set off a full-blown El Nino event.
The (northern) winter of 2018/19 produced an equatorial Pacific Ocean that was primed for an El Nino event but the atmosphere wasn’t ready to play along (i.e. there was no overturning of the atmospheric Walker circulation). Hence,ended up with a weak El Nino Modoki.
Could it be that we get the reverse situation this northern winter (2019/20) with the atmosphere being primed for an El Nino event but the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean not be ready to play along (i.e. not enough warm water in the Pacific warm pool to power a full-blown El Nino event)?
Note that, in 2020/21, it will have been ~ 11 years since the last period favoring La Nina conditions in the Pacific so it looks as though the next few years might be a bit of a roller coaster ride.
The readers might also be interested in some of my earlier posts about the lunar-tidal model that I believe is behind all of this.
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-lunar-tidal-model-part-4.html
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2018/11/predicting-start-of-next-el-nino-event.html
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/04/evidence-that-11-year-solar-cycle.html
The thing with climate and that includes almost everything our seas and atmosphere does, is that everything affects everything. Teasing out the influence of one or two factors on one or two parts is nigh on impossible and probably a bit pointless. We need to move away from reductionist views of complex systems, not only in climate science but also in economics and medicine. In all three we are fooling ourselves and doing damage without knowing it.
Phoenix,
In 2008, I used scientific principles to publically predicted that the maxima for solar sunspot cycles 24 and 25 would both be much lower than cycles 21, 22, and 23.
In 2014, I used scientific principles to publically predicted there would be a moderate to strong El Nino event in March 2015.
What is pointless is claiming that we will never be able to understand a complex system because it is complex. With your Luddite world view, we would all still be sitting in caves eating a slab of cold Bison.
My main comment has gone to the sin bin again.
[mod] retrieved
The Australian BOM’s latest ENSO wrap-up (17 Sept.) says:
International climate models predict a neutral ENSO state is the most likely scenario for the remainder of 2019, and into early 2020.
– – –
IW says: Note that, in 2020/21, it will have been ~ 11 years since the last period favoring La Nina conditions in the Pacific
It is tempting to think that the oceans have been unloading surplus heat via El Ninos as the cool-down of successive low solar minima takes effect (does anyone remember ‘the pause’?). If so – not much room for La Nina?
Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.
The SOI has become very negative in the last few days. That is not good for rain on the east coast of Australia especially Qld.
Interesting! During recent weeks I have identified correlations for monthly SOI data from my ANN calculations. Magnetic Aa-index give strongest correlations followed by QBO and tidal influence. QBO is very regular and is mainly a gravitational effect from variations in the lunar orbit. I have made a QBO prediction up to 2030 using Fourier Transformation. I think this should be accurate. Note: the last cycle was a little bit irregular. While, Aa-index follow solar activity a general forecast is possible to make predictions, but with errors. So, ENSO main drivers in my view are linked to a combination to lunar tidal cycles and variations in solar activity. To make good ENSO prediction one must combine lunar and solar effects. I’m now only halfway on doing that and it is going to take some time until that is possible for me.
The battle is on!
IW – have you seen this?
Deep learning application able to predict El Niño events up to 18 months in advance
Posted: September 20, 2019
Today the trades are back blowing at full strength. There will be no El Niño any time soon.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Trade-winds
Published: 23 September 2019
Nonlinear response of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex to the Indo–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) Niño
Xin Zhou, Quanliang Chen, Fei Xie, Jianping Li, Minggang Li, Ruiqiang Ding, Yanjie Li, Xin Xia & Zhigang Cheng
Scientific Reports volume 9, Article number: 13719 (2019)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49449-7
Phil Salmon,
The collapse of the equatorial trade winds in early September was caused by the convectively-decoupled equatorial Kelvin wave generated by the MJO when it was just north of New Guinea. I believe that there is a good possibility that these atmospheric conditions will be repeated at least once or twice in the coming four months. So, I think that is too early to rule out the possibility of an El Nino event yet.
The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is continuing to evolve. The warm surface waters have moved another 1,700 km to the east along the Equator in just six days! This a total of 5,000 km in 21 days, at a speed of ~ 10 km/hr.
There is another strong MJO emerging off the east coast of Africa and barrelling east towards the Indonesian Archipelago. In addition, the Equatorial zone of convergence is stabilizing (again) across the equatorial Pacific at about 15 degrees north, ready for the next Kelvin wave to come through in a couple of weeks.
Get out your popcorn!
Nothing above the zero line in 2019 – so far…
The less stringent BEST Index for El Nino/LA Nina Months
indicates that we have been having an El Nino event since
October 2018. The reason why is that this index is weighted more
so towards oceanic rather than atmospheric ENSO indices.
1 = EL NINO MONTH
0 = NEUTRAL MONTH
-1 = LA NINA MONTH
-9 = NO DATA
YEAR_J_F_M_A_M_J_J_A_S_O_N_D
2014 _0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0
2015 _0_1_1_1_1_1_1_1_1_1_1_1____________Start 2015/16 Classic El Nino_ Feb_2015
2016 _1_1_1_1_1_0_-1_0_0_0_0_0
2017 _0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_-1_-1_-1_0
2018 _0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_1_1_1____________Start 2018/2019 Modoki El Nino_Oct 2018
2019 _1_1_1_1_1_1_-9_-9_-9_-9_-9_-9
The oceans have been responding to the forcing but the atmosphere not so much so…