We’re pleased to say: Rick Salvador has been busy again.
[This graphic has been added by the Talkshop mainly for entertainment value]
The following demonstrates that Metoffice Hadcrut4 is a restatement of the NOAA El Nino index. It’s based on the conjecture that not only do El Nino events have an immediate effect on world temperature but also the clustering of El Nino or La Nina events have a cumulative effect on the worlds temperature. Ian Wilson and Paul Vaughan have provide the frame work to show that El Nino events are governed by the interaction of the Sun and Moon coupled with the hemispherical asymmetry of the Earth’s surface properties. The climate variation is driven by the ratio in strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events.
El Nino data is available here:
The Hadcrut4 data is available here:
The Hadcrut4 data is processed by averaging the eleven temperature series for each month and then taking a rolling 12 month average of the monthly result to give a global smoothed temperature change. The result is shown below.
The data is fitted to a sixth power polynomial and the numerical value of the polynomial subtracted from Hadcrut4 to get a linear result.
This linear result is shown in the following two graphics compared to the El Nino index.
The modern data from 1950 to 2016 show excellent coherence. The Historical data from 1880 to 1949 coherence is good but as the data has less certainty there are discrepancies.
Based on the conjecture that the climate is driven by the cumulative effects of El Nino and La Nina events the following graphic compares the summation of the El Nino index to Hadcrut4 rotated so that it is reflective around the zero axis of El Nino. The coherence is again good.
The next step is to generate the Hadcrut4 from the El Nino data by correlating the cumulative El Nino index and The El Nino Index by month to Hadcrut4. The equation to do this is:
HD4=K1*(Sum of (El Nino index +K3) + K2*(El Nino index 12 month rolling average).
HD4=K1*(Sum of (El Nino index +K3) + K2*El Nino index.
The zero of the Index is adjusted upwards by K3. This gives the slight warming trend. (The index itself may have been constructed to give a zero sum game.) The graphic is below and is an excellent fit considering the quality of historical data and the simplicity of the equation.
Predicting El Nino predicts the climate.