Germany votes to ban internal combustion engine cars by 2030 

Posted: October 11, 2016 by oldbrew in Emissions, government, ideology
Tags: ,

Daimler-Benz production lines [image credit: BBC]

Daimler-Benz production lines [image credit: BBC]

Hard to see Germany’s mighty motor industry taking this lying down, even if it’s not law just yet. A bad case of ‘greenhouse gas disease’ in the minds of legislators?

Germany invented the gasoline engine and diesel engine. Now, Germany’s Bundesrat wants the internal combustion engine banned starting in 2030, says ExtremeTech. The resolution by one of Germany’s two legislative bodies (analogous to the US Senate or British House of Lords) isn’t binding, but it had bipartisan support.

It suggests the days of the internal combustion engine car are finite. Other code phrases in the resolution, once deciphered, suggest Germany wants to roll back tax credits favoring diesel engine cars, and push for further incentives to ramp up the sales of electric vehicles.

Why a non-binding resolution is still a cannon shot
Cars and trucks represent low-hanging fruit for those who want to roll back internal combustion engine pollution. Trains, planes, and ships aren’t going to run on batteries anytime soon.

Germany wants to reduce CO2 emissions by as much as 95% by 2050, according to Der Spiegel, which first reported the story. This in a country that reveres the automobile and develops many of the world’s highest-technology cars, from Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. It may be that electrification may get more engineering resources than even autonomous driving.

Europe in general sees global warming as a more immediate concern than the US, and it sees transportation activities as a major contributor. Transportation (cars, trucks, motorcycles, trains, planes, boats) represented 26% of US greenhouse gas emissions, according to the EPA. The increase outstripped the other sectors: electricity generation, industry, agriculture, residential, and commercial.

Globally, transportation represents 14% of greenhouse gas emissions. That, too, grows out of proportion to other sectors, especially with the emerging middle classes in China and India.

Quick clampdown on diesels?
The language of the resolution was oblique in places. Running a de-obfuscation filter suggests diesels are out and EVs are in.

The resolution says that at “[the] latest in 2030, only zero-emission passenger vehicles will be approved,” means Germany wants the EU Commission in Brussels to move quickly transitioning Europe to electric vehicles. Approvals are generally at the EU and not country level. In the past, the EU has often followed German regulations and resolutions, because it’s the most advanced car-building country in Europe.

ExtremeTech concludes: A resolution to shift to EVs by 2030 might get pushed back. But in Germany at least, it’s a sign that the gasoline or diesel-powered car or truck has a finite lifespan.

Full report: Germany votes to ban internal combustion engine cars by 2030 | ExtremeTech

  1. oldbrew says:

    ‘Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO2) is a colorless and odorless gas vital to life on Earth.’
    – first line of Wikipedia page.

    This is what politicians and climate alarmists now call ‘pollution’.

  2. ECB says:

    Good on them. Their economy will collapse. The German hegemony has been a bit much.

  3. Richard111 says:

    Why can’t people do any simple basic science? Calculate the mass of a 1 square metre column of air at STP. The consensus is that in that column of air there will be 6kg of CO2 molecules. (0.04%) Now we assume the air column is fairly dry, just 1% of water vapour molecules. When we work out the molecular mass it turns out the H2O molecules mass out at over 63kg !!! There you have it. !% humidity air has 10 TIMES THE MASS of CO2 in a 1 square metre column of air and most of the H2O molecules will be below the tropopause.

    Now look up the emission absorption characteristics of H2O and CO2 and explain exactly what is being warmed and where.

  4. Richard111 says:

    Ooops! ALL the H2O molecules will be below the tropopause.

  5. Curious George says:

    They are not banning fossil fuels; they are banning combustion engines. Thermodynamics severely limits the efficiency of the conversion – usually we get only around 30% of the energy back. Avoiding a double conversion fuel->heat->useful_energy might help. A direct fuel->electricity conversion (fuel cell) is a dream – but we are not quite there yet for practical purposes.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Whether they want to ban manufacture of the ICE or just its use on German roads is not clear.
    They could just shut down the filling stations. But then the EU might stick its oar in…

  7. Will BMW and Merc still export diesels to China?

    [reply] probably but they might have to build them outside Germany e.g. in China

  8. oldbrew says:

    BMW already sells push-bikes including ‘the Cruise e-bike’. Not much use on the autobahn though 😐

  9. J Martin says:

    I don’t see how they can put the infrastructure in place in time to have all new cars run on electricity. Since they are stupidly scrapping nuclear which is co2 free and replacing with coal which produces co2 the net effect of a switch to electric cars will be no reduction in co2 whatsoever.

    They will need to spend some serious money on fuel cell research.

  10. Fast says:

    Hard Facts on China.

    In 2010, China produced 11 times more steel than the United States.
    New World Record: China made and sold 18 million vehicles in 2010.
    There are more pigs in China than in the next 43 pork producing nations combined.
    China currently has the worlds fastest train and the worlds largest high-speed rail network.

    China is currently the number one producer in the world of wind and solar power, but don’t use it
    themselves. While they manufacture 80% of the world’s solar panels, they install less than 5% and
    build a new coal fired power station every week. In one year they turn on more new coal powered
    electricity than Australia’s total output.

    China currently controls more than 90% of the total global supply of rare earth elements.

    In the past 15 years, China has moved from 14th place to 2nd place in the world in published scientific
    research articles. China now possesses the fastest supercomputer on the entire globe.

    At the end of March 2011, China accumulated US$3.04 trillion in foreign currency reserves–the largest
    stockpile on the entire globe.

    They are already the largest carbon dioxide emitter and their output will rise 70% by 2020.

    When countries like China are growing and consuming at these extraordinary rates CO2 is going to continue to rise and it will have no demonstrable affect on the climate.

    All that Western politicians are doing is increasing our cost of living and making our manufacturers noncompetitive in the world markets.

  11. oldbrew says:

    China auto sales growth accelerates on rising crossover, SUV demand

    If the Germans can’t supply any of them, the US and others won’t be crying.

  12. oldbrew says:

    One plus point for the plan: they won’t need biofuels any more as there won’t be any engines to burn them.

  13. John Silver says:

    Is this a British revenge plan? Clever.

  14. oldbrew says:

    No, the Brits are at it as well in some small way…

    The results of the project’s modelling showed that across Britain 32 per cent of supply cables (312,000 in all) will require intervention when 40-70 per cent of customers have EVs.

    Intervention using smart technology, rather than digging up the roads to install new cables, has been predicted to give an economic saving of around £2.2 billion by 2050.

    Note: ‘when’ 40-70 per cent of customers have EVs. Can we afford to ‘save’ all that money?

  15. tom0mason says:

    The UK knows very well how the car industry acts when controlled by the government. Given vast amounts of government subsidy to produce vehicles that are not wanted by the public, what could possibly go wrong?.
    Willkommen in Deutschland der “Leyland”

  16. BoyfromTottenham says:

    Hi from Oz. Just when I thought things were looking up for human rationality, Germany proves me wrong. This is way beyond stupid, its economic suicide. But just to be sure, I guess that I should take really good care of my ICE car.

  17. graphicconception says:

    If memory serves, countries typically use about as much energy in the transport sector as they produce as electricity. So the German proposal looks as if it they will need to nearly double their electricity generation by 2030 if they want to convert to electric cars.

    Failing that, they need a technology that will power a vehicle that uses neither electricity nor fossil fuels – by 2030.

    I wish them luck.

    [reply] the horse?

  18. oldbrew says:

    Meanwhile the spread of renewables in Germany has gone a bit pear-shaped.

    Date: 12/10/16 Philip Oltermann, The Guardian

  19. J Martin says:

    One consequence of going over to electric cars will be that motorway service car parks will need to double in size as each car will need to stay there several times longer than the average car in order to recharge.

    The country will need to generate twice as much electricity but I don’t see that happening so during a cold windless sunnless spell in winter, many motorists will be stuck at home or elsewhere unable to charge their cars.

    How will the government guarantee an electricity supply to my central heating pump if there are electricity shortages being caused by electric vehicle owners.

  20. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    In my GCE Physics exam in the 60’s we had to describe the difference between an Internal Combustion (IC) engine and a Compression Ignition (CI) engine.

    [reply] today they might ask the difference between a hybrid and a plug-in

  21. gallopingcamel says:

    It will be hilarious to watch this farce from a safe distance. My guess is that the “No ICE” plan will collapse in disgrace if it is enforced. It will be even worse than Obamacare.

  22. gallopingcamel says:

    Given the leadership of people like Angela Merkel, the EU is doomed.

    In the USA we have had two terrible presidents in a row (Bush and Obama). Our government is so corrupt that Hillary Clinton will be able to achieve “Banana Republic” status in her first term.

  23. oldbrew says:

    Flagship Daily ‘Die Welt’ Calls Germany’s Ban Of Internal Combustion Engines By 2030 A “Fairy Tale”

    NTZ notes a few of the problems:
    1) political opposition
    2) lack of infrastructure
    3) EU rules

  24. Zeke says:

    Here is a report my son just wrote:

    Etienne Lenoir

    Jean Joseph Etienne Lenoir (Jan 12 1822 – Aug 4 1900) was a Belgian inventor best known for his development of the internal combustion engine.
    In 1858 he designed his first combustion engine. It was a simple converted two-stroke steam engine that ran on a mixture of coal gas and air but was surprisingly durable and was soon in use across the continent in low-power situations. His was invested in by his employer Petiene et Cie in 1859, who allowed him the capital he needed two found two companies and build a factory to produce the engines. Although the engine suffered from several problems (inlcuding noisiness, inefficiency and unreliability), more than 1400 were sold.
    In 1862 he built one of the first automobiles with an internal combustion engine, adapting his engine to the design and converting it to a gasoline fuel. Not long after his engine had entered production however, it was rendered obsolete by rapid advances in combustion engine design by figures like Nikolaus Otto.
    Aside from the engine, Lenoir’s primary success was an automatic telegraph device that could send written information. He spent his later years in relative poverty.


    “Notepad was glitchy.”

    Belgian and French patents were first.

  25. Zeke says:

    George Brayton

    Obituary – Cassier’s Magazine, (1912)

    George B. Brayton, pioneer in the development of the internal-combustion engine, and a most brilliant mechanic and investigator, was born at Compton, Rhode Island, in 1830. He received his education at a school in a village called Pond Factory, and early showed an inclination toward mechanics, making a little water-wheel and hammer at the early age of 4½ years. His father was the superintendent of a cotton factory, and invented several attachments to looms, from the proceeds of which he purchased a farm near Warwick, R. I., where George made his first experiments upon combustion in a cylinder, using camphene as a fuel; this was in the year 1853.

    Brayton learned his trade as a machinist at “Tom Hill’s” machine shop in Providence, and at the Corliss Engine Works. Among his early inventions were a breech-loading gun, and a riveting machine for tank and gasometer work. In 1848 he turned his attention to steam boiler design, and invented the sectional steam generator, called the Exeter boiler, extensively manufactured by the Exeter Machine Works, of Exeter, N. H.

    The internal-combustion engine, by which Brayton’s name is best remembered, was first developed by him at Bricksburg, N. J., about 1870, and began to attract attention by 1873, after tests and a report by Professor Thurston, and by exhibition before the Franklin Institute, and is remarkable in that it employed a cycle of controlled combustion similar to that since so widely developed by Diesel and others. The “Ready Motor,” as it was called, used oil fuel directly in the cylinder without a carburetter, and had a separate compression pump for the air supply, and worked steadily and more efficiently than any combustion engine produced to that time.

    In 1878 its construction was undertaken in England by Messrs. Simon, of Nottingham. After the introduction of gas engines of the Beau-de-Rochas type, the Brayton engine fell into disuse, but it is now realized that the machine was a most important and original invention, and that the principle upon which it was designed is the one governing the modern successful oil engine of maximum efficiency. Brayton died at Kingbury, England, December 17, 1892, and his remains were interred at Providence, R.I., January 24. 1893.

  26. E.M.Smith says:

    In small countries like Germany, trains can be electric. Crossing The Plains of America, the cost to electrify is staggering…

    If Germany only sells EVs, there will be a marked increase in antique car enthusiasts. (FWIW, due to California rules for new cars, I drive a 1980 Mercedes Diesel and a 1979 gasser…)

    I have no plans to buy any electric car.

    So Germany can kill their car makers, but they can’t force people to buy crap.

  27. p.g.sharrow says:

    Must be wonderful to be a Liberal Ecoloon. No need to temper your opinions with facts or reality. Just mandate it and it will be! The little people will make it so…pg

  28. gallopingcamel says:

    The Ecoloons think like Jean Luc Picard…………”Make it so!”

  29. oldbrew says:

    Sweden joins the electric car crackpottery..

    Sweden wants EU to switch to emission-free cars by 2030

    Battery power in cold dark Scandinavian winters? Good luck 😐

    Extreme cold weather: In extreme cold weather temperatures of 20° F, it was observed that the EV battery range dropped by a stunning 57%. The combined average range recorded was just 43 miles.

  30. Zeke says:

    “Germany invented the gasoline engine and diesel engine…”

    The internal combustion engine was developed by others before Otto.

    Etienne Lenoir’s patent was filed in France, so I mistakenly suggested that he had a patent in Belgium. So sorry about that. He was Belgian and immigrated to France.

    Now for a guilt offering, I will share this from Encyc Americana 1959:

    “A period of great development in the application of gasoline engines to road vehicles followed, but England was left out completely during the most active of these years.<b< A long series of restrictive legislation had culminated in the Red Flag Act of 1865, which required any motor vehicle operating on the highways to be preceded by a man on foot carrying a red flag. Until this act was repealed in 1896, further development of motor vehicles in England was practically halted. But in Germany France, and the United States, work had gone ahead at a rapid pace.“

    Perhaps there is a lesson in this somewhere. Let me have a try at it.

    Worthless Wind is the man on foot required to carry a Red Flag in front of coal, gas and hydro power.