![Igloo time [image credit: Ansgar Walk / Wikipedia]](https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/igloo1.jpg)
Igloo time
[image credit: Ansgar Walk / Wikipedia]
This is worth a look just for the last paragraph, which undermines most of the rest of it. Under the optimistic sub-heading ‘Warming to recommence’ we find:
‘Despite the warming hiatus, Knutti is convinced there is no reason to doubt either the existing calculations for the climate activity of greenhouse gases or the latest climate models.’
“Short-term climate fluctuations can easily be explained. They do not alter the fact that the climate will become considerably warmer in the long term as a result of greenhouse gas emissions,” says Knutti.
‘He believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.’ [bold added]
Translation: as soon as the sun, the weather and volcanoes – all natural factors – allow, the world will start warming again. Who knew?
Farsnews report: Why Global Warming Is Taking a Break
Good to hear a warmist trashing his own theory in order to explain the lack of temperature rise this century – without realising it.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
The equivalent translation is: As soon as the variables return to the values of previous decades, the variances will return to those of the previous decades
Whoda thunk it?
He is saying the climate is being controlled by natural causes in opposition to the point he is trying to convey which is GHG. Crazy.
“‘He believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.”
He has opened a whole new areas in both climatology and mathematics where a chaotic system, governed by many unknown outside forces, will restore itself when old known parameters values are reapplied sometime in the future. His genius should be underestimated.
Why did they spell his name (Nutty) incorrectly?
‘His genius should be underestimated.’ – Is there a missing ‘not’ in that line?
—
‘global warming will recommence as soon as… ‘
So they admit it has stopped in its tracks. That kills the idea that CO2 is a dominant climate factor.
Over to Josh for a cartoon:
What is this warming hiatus? The experimental evidence from ocean temperature data is that the globe is steadily warming.Sure the atmosphere is warming at a much slower rate (a hiatus), but the atmosphere is not the globe. Eschenbach on WUWT seems to realise this, and, made a ludicrous attempt in May of last year to argue that the oceanic warming is insignificant, despite the very clear trend in the data – a case of “hide the incline”
Yes, the distinction between global warming and atmospheric warming ought to be obvious, but a lot of people, especially on AGW theory-hostile blogs like this, are still missing it.
Olbrew,
I prefer the line as is, that way sometime in the future he may appear comparatively good at something.
…naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.
So that’s never.
Bill H, ocean, really?
You are new here, the subject of ocean data has been beaten to death, it’s poor.
There was supposed to be better data in Argo but that is also proving a joke.
An indirect mark ought to be tropical storms since surface water heat feeds the things.
I think the most likely situation is we have seen a modal shift back to how it was before the last one, vaguely circa 1980. What this looks like with current systems is new. Others may disagree.
Talkshop tends to major on solar as a causal. One facet of this is UV via the atmospheric window penetrates water, another window and dissipates, hence one solar mechanism. Solar UV output is not well understood nor is there much data.
(sorry about the slow moderation)
If natural factors can overrule human influence now, they are always in control, as they can potentially do the same at any time.
The usual moving of the goal posts . Expecting them all to be moved.. ICE , SNOW, ARCTIC, SEA LEVEL .etc
In 10yrs will there be any fossil fuel of any significance left anyway?
The AGW movement is in sinking sand. Give the AGW research money to the folk in the NH who will need it to survive the colder regime and associated decline in food production leading to higher food prices
@ weathercycles 11:40 am
“In 10yrs will there be any fossil fuel of any significance left anyway?”
Of course there will. You don’t think they’d build Nord Stream expecting less than a decade’s use, do you?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream
Thanks JOE.
Whilst at uni 3o yrs ago they were saying supply would peak.. and supplies would be gone by now. LOL
I guess they found more..
How will they go with that supply for the NH if we have global cooling and a mauder style minimum.
ICE. gas .frozen pipes etc? Is this a problem?
and if the ARCTIC ice grows>? No more exploration and extraction?
Friggin’ awesome piece of engineering
“The second line was laid in 2011–2012 and was inaugurated on 8 October 2012. At 1,222 kilometres (759 mi) in length, it is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, surpassing the Langeled pipeline.[4][5]”
thanks for that info’
The Leviathan gas field in the Med – ‘the world’s largest offshore gas find in the past decade’ – will be coming on stream around 2017 too.
Its estimated reserves were upgraded recently to about 22 trillion cubic feet.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/13/israel-natgas-leviathan-idUSL6N0PO08Q20140713
Bill H says: ‘What is this warming hiatus? The experimental evidence from ocean temperature data is that the globe is steadily warming’
The hiatus is old news now Bill: it was accepted in January 2013 by James Hansen.
‘…no less an authority than NASA scientist James E. Hansen wrote, “The 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing.” Mr. Hansen is the intellectual godfather of the global-warming movement who advised Al Gore on his Oscar-winning climate-scare flick, “An Inconvenient Truth.” Mr. Hansen has just acknowledged more than the lack of warming. His words confirm nature, not mankind, played the decisive role in directing global temperatures over the past 10 years.’
Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/17/global-warming-takes-a-vacation/
And what is this ‘experimental evidence from ocean temperature data’ – does it explain ‘natural variability’ that Hansen refers to but fails to say what the cause might be?
Another prominent warmist scientist discovers natural ‘climate change’:
‘A new paper by Professor Kevin Trenberth from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and colleagues explains:
“The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was in a negative phase before 1976, but became positive from 1976 to 1998, a period coinciding with strong increases in global mean surface temperatures. Then it switched to a negative phase in 1999, coinciding with the pause in the upward trend in global mean surface temperatures.” ‘
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/08/hiatus-in-surface-warming-is-upping-the-odds-of-uk-cold-winters-say-scientists/
The same professor has been insisting for years, decades even, that it was all about man-made emissions of trace gases. Now when there’s no alternative he discovers natural forces. Amazing 😉
Man caused Warming will resume after a period of natural caused cooling.
Maybe after 15 to 20 years!
I’m waiting for the “Man caused” cooling argument to be recycled. pg
Now they’ve admitted natural cooling exists, they have to accept natural warming also exists.
Why wouldn’t it?
And as they don’t know the extent of either, their whole theory is sunk.
The climatocrats made a series of predictions. Those predictions failed. Now they are floundering for excuses and calling names and seeking ways to distract people. this is an old pattern of human behavior.
[reply] That of a loser perhaps
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