salvador-projection

I was trained as an engineer and then did a degree in the History and philosophy of science.

I know how to calculate forces, I understand thermodynamics and radiative theory and I don’t ignore data inimical to any hypothesis.

After thirty years of monitoring and appraising the data, the global warming hypothesis and working out what really causes climatic change I’ve concluded that it ain’t CO2. The real causes of climatic change at the planetary scale are the enormous forces transferring energy between solar system bodies.

Jupiter and Saturn between them hold over 85% of the angular momentum of the system. Venus has, within an order of magnitude, the same gravitational force on the Earth-Moon system as Jupiter. The two of them have shaped the orbit of our Moon, whose tidal forces have a profound effect on the overturning circulation of Earth’s oceans, which contain 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere of which CO2 comprises 0.04%.

Nonetheless, the atmosphere has a profound effect on the rate at which the ocean gains heat from the Sun, and the rate at which is loses it back to space. But this effect has much less to do with the the composition of the atmosphere, and much more to do with the mass of the atmosphere, which in concert with oceanic heat capacity, raises the Earth’s average surface temperature some 90K above that of the Moon.

The motion of the large outer planets, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune also affects the activity cycles of our star, the Sun. Solar activity variation’s effect on Earth’s surface temperature is amplified by it’s effect on cloud cover, and this accounts for all the temperature change accurately observed and measured in the last 50 years.

The variation of CO2 in the atmosphere follows, does not lead, temperature variation at all timescales. It is an effect, not a cause of climatic change. I know this is hard for people who’ve been trained to believe in the Co2 caused global warming hypothesis throughout their schooling, and by the mass media, but facts are stubborn things, not to be ignored, but understood.

I’ll provide evidence and links for all the assertions in this comment as I find time. For now, just be aware that the Sun is entering a grand minimum, as it did in the 1600s and 1800s in the Maunder and Dalton minima. It doesn’t mean the Earth will be cold all the time, but we can expect some brutal winters and short growing seasons over the next 30 years or so. If our model is correct, the Sun won’t be as active after the end of the grand minimum as it was in the C20th until at least the end of the C21st.

Plan now for feeding and keeping warm a population of 66 million on a small island during the coming decades.

Comments
  1. Pablo says:

    As well as their huge heat capacity the oceans have the peculiar property of freezing from the surface downwards so that under a tropical sun the bulk of ‘Earth’s hot water bottle” will always remain at least 274ºc above absolute zero.

  2. tallbloke says:

    CO2 ‘heat trapping’ update:

  3. tallbloke says:

    IPCC climate model performance update:

  4. J Martin says:

    Your solar cycle 25 shows as much lower than SC24. Leif Svalgaard expects SC25 to be much the same or slightly higher than SC24. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Open air vs. Greenhouse – spot the difference…

  6. tallbloke says:

    JM: A few years ago Leif said he expected SC24 to be fairly normal and SC25 to be extremely low.

    “Predict early, predict often” As he is fond of saying, when taking the piss out of others…

  7. oldbrew says:

    Geomag decline since 2003-2005…

    ‘Across Europe as a whole, 2003 was the hottest summer for at least 500 years.’ – BBC, 2003 report.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/10/newsid_3910000/3910801.stm

  8. konradwp1 says:

    ”Nonetheless, the atmosphere has a profound effect on the rate at which the ocean gains heat from the Sun, and the rate at which is loses it back to space. But this effect has much less to do with the the composition of the atmosphere, and much more to do with the mass of the atmosphere, which in concert with oceanic heat capacity, raises the Earth’s average surface temperature some 90K above that of the Moon.”

    The atmosphere has no effect (other than cloud albedo and SWIR absorption) on the rate at which the ocean gains energy from the Sun, but it has a profound effect on the rate it loses it back to space. This effect has everything to do with the composition of the atmosphere, as an atmosphere without radiative gases cannot cool itself, let alone the surface of this ocean planet. The oceans of this planet would average around 335K were it not for conductive and evaporative cooling by our radiatively cooled atmosphere. (FIFY).

    PS. Stop looking for how our atmosphere warms the planet and start looking for how it cools it.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Jo Nova: BOM homogenization errors are so big they can be seen from space

    It’s just not cricket. And in so many ways.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/04/bom-homogenization-errors-are-so-big-they-can-be-seen-from-space/
    – – –
    They obviously wouldn’t need to fiddle the data if it already supported the warmist propaganda.

  10. pochas94 says:

    An important effort, Salvador. Research like yours is crucial if we are to get past our CO2 obsession and direct our efforts toward understanding natural climate variability. We will get there.

  11. oldbrew says:

    AN EMPIRICAL RE-EXAMINATION: HOW TWO RECENT MAJOR EL NIÑO PERIODS COMPARE
    Date: 01/04/18 C3 Headlines

    The 1997-1998 El Niño versus the 2015-2016 event. How do they differ? How are they similar? The takeaway?
    . . .
    From February 1996 through February 2000, the warming rate is +3.6°C per century. The warming rate for the February 2014 through February 2018 is significantly lower at +0.72°C per century.

    http://www.thegwpf.com/an-empirical-reexamination-how-two-recent-major-el-nino-periods-compare/

  12. John PAK says:

    The primary heating of the atmosphere comes from conduction of heat from ground to air and by evapouration of tropical waters and subsequent condensation at 10,000ft +. The absorption/emission of long wave radiation probably contributes less than a third of the overall heating and water vapour is by far the most dominant gas but I struggle to find clear data on this. Can anyone help?

  13. Pablo says:

    It seems that humidity tends to moderate extremes of surface temperature both day and night.
    Intermolecular radiation between water vapour molecules in warmer air near the surface to those in the cooler air above will also cool the surface air during the daytime and tend to shrink the lapse rate.

    This on Diurnal Variation of Free-Aiir Temperature and of the Temperature Lapse Rate from Monthly Weather Review 1933 may be of interest…

    ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/mwr/061/mwr-061-03-0061.pdf

  14. Phil says:

    Climate change is indeed “man made” as the only evidence for “climate change” as redefined by the UN FCCC marketing campaign package is the politically determined wording of the same UN FCCC definitions and associated documentation. Nothing to do with actual “atmospheric constituents,” greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, etc which were deliberately introduced pseudo-scientific “red herring” issues that have promoted the waste of billions of dollars on irrelevant “carbon emission reduction” legislation, bureaucracies, research and marketing.

  15. oldbrew says:

    The Pause Has Returned.
    APRIL 5, 2018
    By Paul Homewood

    It is clear that temperatures are settling down at a similar level to the period between 2002 and 2007, following the record El Nino of 2015/16. Bear in mind as well that the degree of accuracy, according to the Hadley Centre, is about +/-0.1C. As such, it cannot be said that there has been any statistically measurable warming since 2001, or indeed previously.

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/04/05/the-pause-has-returned/
    [see temp. graphs]

    So much for accelerating warming in the 21st century 👎

  16. 4TimesAYear says:

    Reblogged this on 4timesayear's Blog.

  17. Ulric Lyons says:

    “For now, just be aware that the Sun is entering a grand minimum, as it did in the 1600s and 1800s in the Maunder and Dalton minima. It doesn’t mean the Earth will be cold all the time, but we can expect some brutal winters and short growing seasons over the next 30 years or so.”

    Was Dalton a grand minimum? it only gave about a decade of poor weather.