Rick Salvador’s 2013 Pattern Recognition in Physics solar prediction now validated

Posted: May 23, 2018 by tallbloke in Celestial Mechanics, censorship, climate, Cycles, Forecasting, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

Our hypothesis that solar variation is affected by planetary motion, developed over the last 10 years here at the talkshop received a boost today when one of its main detractors, Anthony Watts, published an article declaring that solar cycle 24 is entering minimum.

I’ve left a comment there, something I rarely do since the debacle back in 2014 when Anthony and his sidekick Willis attacked our work and banned discussion of our solar-planetary theory. I’ll be interested to see if it passes moderation.

salvador-validation

Here’s the plot I linked. It shows that Rick Salvador’s model is spot on track over the last 5 years.

salvador2100-update

http://www.pattern-recogn-phys.net/1/117/2013/prp-1-117-2013.pdf

The validation of Rick’s model is also an embarrassment for the Copernicus science publishing house, which shut down the journal we published in three weeks afterwards making never substantiated allegations that the peer review process was compromised. The real reason was that our work contradicted the IPCC claims that the Sun doesn’t affect climate change.

wpid-PRP-Censured.jpg

censor1

UPDATE: Rick Salvador has emailed me a few plots he has made of the up to date data.

Sunspot model with updated with new sunspot NoNew Sunspots to old correlationClose up of model prediction and actual

Comments
  1. tallbloke says:

    Five years on, I’m cool. 🙂

  2. oldbrew says:

    Anyone who thinks the planets have no effect on the Sun only needs to run Arnholm’s solar simulator for a few minutes, with ‘solar orbit’ switched on.

    There’ll be a loop followed by an arc, repeat ad infinitum. About halfway round the loop there’ll be a Jupiter-Saturn opposition, and about halfway round the arc a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction. Watch how the Sun moves.

    http://arnholm.org/astro/sun/sc24/sim2/index.html

    Looks like this (but no planets selected in this screenshot)…

    With some planets, and a solar flare (red blob)…

  3. p.g.sharrow says:

    Cool? yeah, really cool. It is still cool and damp here, grapes are already 2 weeks late blooming…pg

  4. tallbloke says:

    OB: yes, but the argument goes that since the Sun is in freefall around the barycentre, there is no effect on solar variation since it is not subject to any planetary forces other than tidal forces, which are “small”.

    This would be true of the Sun was a hard billiard ball like Newtonian point mass. However, it is a 1.4×10^6 Km diameter hot wobbly mass of roiling plasma with energy pouring outwards from its spinning centre, so that argument is pure bullshit.

    Wolff and Patrone, amongst other NASA scientists have already shown that the Sun is indeed affected by planetary motion.

  5. tallbloke says:

    I got a response to my comment. My response is once again awaiting moderation.

    The paper I linked is here, and is pretty interesting.
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2002GL015640

  6. oldbrew says:

    If the Sun was regular like a watch there wouldn’t be solar cycles of differing lengths and intensities, but there are. They fall within a limited time window too.

    Either the Sun is just erratic or something causes its variations, in which case: list some likely suspects 😎

  7. tallbloke says:

    Gnomes.

    Or planets.

  8. tom0mason says:

    Given that this planet’s climate tends to lag in response to the effect of changes in insolation, and the cosmic ray effects are yet to fully kick in, I wonder when the full effects of will take effect?
    The earth is still radiating relatively high amounts of IR, mostly via stored heat from the oceans, how long before this changes and a new climate regime becomes more apparent?

    If the start of the last LIA is a template, then the weather will progressively become more irregular, with more severe storms, with regions suffering more persistent droughts, more large areas of flooding. In the northern hemisphere the winters got longer, more intense, and frostier; summers became shorter with erratic weather. All-in-all the weather patterns became less predictable, consequently food cultivation suffered massively.

    Outlook — changeable! 😉

    With more volcanic eruptions —

    Outlook — dire! 😦

  9. The next minimum (24-25) is not that close. Likely not before 2020.

  10. Stephen Richards says:

    tom0mason says:
    May 23, 2018 at 6:44 pm

    The effect was one of long lived anticyclones to the north over Scandinavia and Alaska given warm winter (relatively) in those areas and hot summers as the anticyclones pushed south in summer. There are semblances of that occurring this last nine months

  11. tallbloke says:

    I expect solar activity to resurge quite quickly. If the majority of spots are of opposite polarity to SS24, then it’s SS25 starting. We’ll know soon enough.


  12. The butterfly needs to be completed. It’s basically just eyeballing, but I don’t see the minimum before around 2020.

  13. dai davies says:

    What critics of the planetary/Solar cycle connection are missing is the impact of resonance. They evolved together and have been interacting a long time. Anyone who’s pushed a swing knows that little pushes add up.

    I’ve just yesterday put up my simulation of the TRAPPIST-1 exoplanet super-resonances. Amazing to watch. Front page of my site down the bottom. Musical accompliment speeding up orbital periods to audible frequencies.

    dai

  14. dai davies says:

    Perhaps worth reviewing my solar/Ocean heat models here. A few years ago I took a sunspot model published by Nicola Scafetta and recreated it in a spreadsheet. Within a few hours of manual tweaking I had it matching 135 years of southern ocean surface temperatures (SST).

    I then performed a cyclic analysis of the data using analytical software I developed for my PhD that was optimised for short time series – 10ms of speech over a glottal cycle. The link below shows an extrapolation back to 1000 AD and forward to 2500. This century shows a decline back to the temperatures of around 1750.

    http://brindabella.id.au/climarc/images/SignalR150203.135529_1S2 1.gif

    Scafetta, N., 2010, Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

    dai

  15. dai davies says:

    Foiled by spaces in filenames again

  16. Geoff Sharp says:

    Comparing SC4 with SC25/26 in regard to the “hidden cycle” could be somewhat flawed.

    During SC4 the latter half the Sun experienced an angular momentum perturbation (AMP) that alters the solar orbit. The 10 year solar orbit at this point is disordered (the inner loop tries to become an outer loop). There is no future angular momentum perturbation due to occur this century, so the driver is missing?

    Solar grand minima across the Holocene only occur when the solar inner solar orbit is disturbed (the disturbance needs to occur just before the cycle and well before cycle max).

    So only the AMP event is associated with solar grand minima and cycles like SC4, so unless my data is shown to be faulty the Salvadore model cannot be expected to pan out (unless we are going to see a departure from the past). No upcoming AMP event during SC25/26 will dictate a recovery at SC26 with no repeat of SC4?

    Also the Willis comment that they don’t ban on WUWT if you have differing scientific evidence is a bit of a joke. My solar/planetary theory is peer review published with over 20 citations, yet I am banned and they have never falsified my data.

  17. Ian Wilson says:

    # I predict that the next solar minimum will be around 2020.

    # I agree with Geoff that SC25 will be weak and then solar activity will return to normal by SC 26.

    # I do not think that the Barycentric motion of the Sun supports an upcoming Maunder Minimum.

    # I believe that we are about to go into a Dalton-like Minimum that will end in the mid to late 2030’s.

  18. sunspotlover says:

    The low of the cycle was March,2018… See my calculations with the solar flux and the polar fields:

    http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/7246

  19. tallbloke says:

    Dai, interesting stuff indeed.

    Geoff, Ian and Patrick,
    Place bets now.
    May the best hypothesis win. 🙂

  20. oldbrew says:

    Looks like the climate data adjusters will be kept busy in the years ahead 😉

  21. sunspotlover says:

    Bets? Mine is not a hypothesis… It is based on the complete sunspot theory… According to the polar field strength the low was in February. This means cycle 25 will rapidly rise in strength in the coming months! And that cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24… I am working on a paper about this…

  22. Ian Wilson says:

    Roger,

    It’s great that at Tallbloke’s workshop we can differ in our opinions on a given prediction – yet we can all get along. This is so unlike WUWT where Leif “The Final GateKeeper” Svalgaard and Willis “The Soup Nazi” Eschenbach act as the muscle for Anthony Watts.

    I think that we have all given it our best shot and only time will tell who is right.

  23. Ian Wilson says:

    I have copied a post that I have made over at WUWT to see if it raises some discussion here.

    Here is some speculation that is presented as a bit of fun. Please do not take it too seriously.

    1) Sunspot pairs with a certain parity last of a period of roughly 17 years.

    2) These sunspot pairs are identified as belonging to a given sunspot cycle.

    3) The maxima of two consecutive sunspot cycles are separated by roughly 11 years.
    [I know that this varies between about 9 and 13, however, its long-term average is close to 11.1 years]

    4)This means that the typical time between when a sunspot pair of a given polarity first appears on one cycle and when the last sunspot pair of the opposite polarity disappears one cycle later is:
    17 + 11 = 28 years

    One of the original reasons that people proposed that the planets might be responsible for the sunspot cycle on the Sun was the near coincidence of the orbital period of Jupiter (11.86 years) with the mean long-term length of the sunspot cycle (11.1 years). Interestingly, the four dot points above can be used to extend that analogy a bit further.

    The average time between solar cycle maxima = 11.1 years
    The orbital period of Jupiter_______________ = 11.86 years

    Sunspot pair polarity cycle________________ = 28 years
    Orbital period of of Saturn________________ = 29.46 years

    It would be interesting to see what happens when the two planetary periods realign (i.e. synodic period or half period of Jupiter and Saturn – call the Syzygies of Jupiter and Saturn in the diagram below).

    Do you think that there might be a connection?

  24. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    I say no one knows what the sun may or may not do going forward. Educated guesses at best and the opinions are all over the place.

    I do think solar conditions are now long enough in duration and weak enough to end the global warming if not start cooling.

    If sub solar conditions moving forward we will see if this is the case or not.

    For my 2 cents I think this solar minimum has a long way to go ,at least another year . My guess.

  25. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    cor – if sub solar conditions continue moving forward.

  26. stpaulchuck says:

    Tallbloke: “… that’s why I started the other thread:”

    just throw the LSM any sort of doomsday scenario, blood in the streets, etc., and you are guaranteed they’ll run with it! Keep hitting the bell on “droughts! food shortages! death! destruction!” and so on and you’ll become their favorite. They might even finally get off the wheelless AGW wagon.

  27. tallbloke says:

    Lol. Poor Willis.

  28. EternalOptimist says:

    gnomes ?

    do gnomes spin ? I know that dwarves rotate on their axes

  29. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    Time will reveal the truth.

  30. alanpoirier says:

    Well done. It jives with 2030 being the depth of GSM. Now, we wait for the strato volcanoes to blow their tops.

  31. tallbloke says:

    Ian Wilson May 24, 2018 at 12:46 pm

    I love it, did it get any nibbles?

  32. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    It looks like solar cycle 24 as of today is alive and well.

  33. sunspotlover says:

    Salvatore you are wrong… This is cycle 25… It probably started in February and is now ramping up like I predicted… It is normal that you still have for a while the old sunspot polarity… The polar fields have to change first…

  34. sunspotlover says:

    But… I also wrote on Watts Up… That something highly unusual could happen… I wrote that also on my paper… Meaning the cycle ramps up while the old sunspots get closer to the equator…

  35. Ian Wilson says:

    My comments are being sent to the sin bin again.

  36. tallbloke says:

    Nothing in the spam bin here. Or did you mean on WUWT?

    Always archive comments before pressing send. It saves gnashing of teeth afterwards.

  37. Ian Wilson says:

    Rog,

    I have sent it twice and nothing appears at your end. This is happening to virtually almost all of posts at the Workshop.

  38. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    The polarity of the sunspots is the same as it has always been since solar cycle 24 began so how could it be solar cycle 25?

  39. Geoff Sharp says:

    Agree Salvatore, Patrick has it wrong

  40. oldbrew says:

    ARE WE HEADED TOWARDS ANOTHER DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM?
    Date: 23/05/18 Universe Today

    What’s in store for Cycle #25? One thing’s for certain: if the current trend continues, with spotless days more the rule than the exception, we could be in for a deep profound solar minimum through the 2018 to 2020 season, the likes of which would be unprecedented in modern astronomy.

    http://www.thegwpf.com/are-we-headed-towards-another-deep-solar-minimum/

    But if we ‘could be in for’ something, it’s not ‘for certain’ :/

  41. tallbloke says:

    Ian,
    Please email me your comment so I can try to help. Thanks
    You’re not somehow logging into wordpress via facebook are you? If you are, ditch that and deal direct.

  42. sunspotlover says:

    Please stay to the basics: the definition for a new sunspot cycle is that you need a smoothed low and a kind of mirror image. Meaning it goes up and down in a less or more same pattern…
    So take the sunspot numbers… Imagine February is the smoothed low… And… June, July will be strong sunspot months…

  43. Fast says:

    The determination of the beginning and end of a sunspot cycle is a man made construct. So a few months one way or the other is not significant. Cycle 23 is said to begin in August of 1996. If the 22 year magnetic Hale cycle is still in operation then Cycle 25 should statistically begin some time by the end of this year or very early next year.

  44. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    oldbrew I am with you and that article. Solar Cycle 24 continues for now no end in sight yet.

  45. Rog,

    If I log in using WordPress, my avatar name is astroclimateconnection. This causes all sorts of problems with Willis over at WUWT as he claims that I am deliberately trying to hide my identity.

    Last time I did it, Willis went TROPO and the moderator spent half a day trying to calm him down. You’d have thought that I had tried to molest his grandchildren, the way he reacted. I apologized to Willis but this only made him madder. This is why I call him the climate soup Nazi.

    If I use the astroclimateconnection avatar at WUWT my comments immediately go into moderation for a day or so, and in some cases, they never see the light of day. This has forced me to log in to WUWT using Facebook so that my avatar name is my actual name.

    I guess that I may have forgotten to swap my login back from Facebook to WordPress as a I was switching sites. Sorry.

  46. Richard111 says:

    Whatever the forecast for solar activity in the near future, will there be any increase in global food sources to meet present global population increase?

    Records seem to show global population increased from around 1 billion to 2 billion from 1900 to 1940. 40 years for 1 billion increase. Current prediction is global population will pass 8 billion by 2020. This implies each future increase of 1 billion will take 5 years or less. This is assuming a doubling every 40 years.

    Hungry people are not fussy about helping them selves to any available food.

    Hope we will still be able to chat away on this blog in five years time.

  47. J Martin says:

    @ Ian Wilson.

    A couple of years ago I had all sorts of problems trying to post. I would get messages from WordPress telling me to slow down or that was posting too many messages even though I only posted one message a week.

    It turned out that a co2 fanatic I had had a run in with had managed to get the email address I was using at the time labelled as a spammer. This was happening with wordpress and disqus, so there must be some sort of spammer database somewhere. Quite who runs it and how one can get off the list I don’t know.

    The workaround was to use a different email address. When I did that everything went back to normal. Moral – don’t use your maun personal email address when posting comments on blogs.

  48. J Martin says:

    @ Astroclimate

    WUWT automatically bins any post that contains the word “Landscheidt”. It doesn’t even get as far as moderation. This is a corruption of a free, open and democratic society.

    WUWT was more interesting back in the days when Landscheidt’s work could be discussed, but no more. I agree that Willis can be hot headed. Though one thing in his favour is that he is a firm supporter of Landscheidt’s work, though clearly he has no influence in that regard at WUWT.

  49. tallbloke says:

    Ian,
    I don’t know why your ‘via facebook’ thing works at WUWT and not here.
    I suggest you follow J Martin’s suggestion and use a spare email address to create a new wordpress login with username Ian Wilson.

    JM: I find it remarkable that Willis is “a firm supporter of Landscheidt’s work”, and yet he calls our work “cyclomania”. There again, he’s not exactly noted for consistency or intellectual rigour…

  50. Rog and J Martin, Thanks, I will look into it.

  51. 25 then looks like 5?

    And what that suggests ….

  52. Timo Soren says:

    I expected M. A. Vukcevic to pop in, is he well?

  53. tallbloke says:

    Vuk commented on the WUWT article, so I’m sure he’s fine.

  54. Tom Hollings says:

    All very interesting reading. The next ice age is due about now, so the coming solar minimum in 2020 (?) will definitely kick it off. I will be old(er) and grey(er) (balder) by then though, so I will resurrect my long johns and thermal vest and stay indoors.

  55. tallbloke says:

    Welcome to the talkshop Tom. I wouldn’t worry about the next ice age kicking off just yet. Things could get cooler over the next 30 years though, so keep the thermals darned and stock up on firewood.

  56. oldbrew says:

    A Tale of Two Stratospheres
    29 May 2018

    At the Global Monitoring annual conference in Boulder, Colorado, two new results were announced after analysis of two decades of lunar eclipse monitoring. The stratosphere is as clear as it has been for decades – there are very few aerosols up there. This is important, we are informed, as it is the stratosphere that allows sunlight in to warm the Earth at the surface.

    http://www.sis-group.org.uk/news/tale-two-stratospheres.htm

  57. pochas94 says:

    WUWT has been edging into dangerous territory, e.g. solar activity and planetary and potentially galactic influences.

    https://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2018/05/23/are-we-headed-for-a-deep-solar-minimum/#comment-2824356

    Let’s hope it continues.

  58. oldbrew says:

    PDO trending downwards…

    Credit: xmetman

  59. ren says:

    Strong convection, which currently occurs in Europe and North America, is a sign of cooling. High convection causes heat loss (water vapor) to the stratosphere.

  60. ren says:

    The effect is that the temperature at the North Pole drops.

  61. ren says:

    You see a drop in temperature of the oceans in the tropics.

  62. ren says:

    The warm wave below the surface of the Pacific did not cause El Niño.

  63. ren says:

    The solar polar dipole is active at the level of the previous cycle. In my opinion, it will be until 2020, when the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn will come.

  64. ren says:

    It seems that the activity of the solar wind may fall even more, as in 2009.

  65. sunspotlover says:

    Solen Info found a new sunspot from cycle 25 today! So my finding that solar cycle 25 already started is gaining strong momentum…

    http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/7246

  66. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    and in the meantime the solar flux is trending lower again

  67. oldbrew says:

    Arctic Alarmist Meltdown Continues
    Posted on June 3, 2018 by tonyheller

    On May 1st I warned : “This summer is shaping up to be a complete disaster for the climate mafia”

    The summer is unfolding exactly as I expected. The ice is melting very slowly, sea ice volume is normal, and is the highest in five years. Volume is much higher than ten years ago and about the same as twelve years ago.

    https://realclimatescience.com/2018/06/arctic-alarmist-meltdown-continues/
    – – –
    So much for the claimed ‘death spiral’.

  68. Tenuc says:

    Oldbrew,

    The only thing entering a ‘death spiral’ is the CAGW conjecture being pushed by the mainstream. The ‘greenhouse’ meme is a red-herring and it is external factors which dictate our weather/climate, moderated by Earth’s incredibly complicated and chaotic systems that always strive to achieve MEP.

    Our sun is the key driver, as proved by history, and I think scientists must put more focus on understanding the mechanisms which cause the changes in output. It is vital that we avoid the possible catastrophe of another Maunder minimum occurring without the human race being prepared. I’m hoping someone finds a method to accurately predict multi-decadal solar output so we can prepare; mainstream solar physicists don’t seem to have a clue!

    So far Miles Mathis prediction (2014) is looking good as he forecast the first cycle 25 spots to occur 2018, now we will have to wait until 2021 to see if he is correct about the last cycle 24 spots disappearing in 2021. I’m hoping MM method works as it has a simple ‘mechanical’ explanation and can easily forecast cycles decades in advance.

  69. […] Rick Salvador's 2013 Pattern Recognition in Physics solar prediction now validated […]

  70. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s important to remember that all public models fail — by design focused on other criteria — to accurately model cycle length.

    They say “In God We Trust” knowing paper agreements based on faulted assumptions burned in ruins ensure no stability.

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