Ned Nikolov: Demystifying the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect

Posted: September 6, 2021 by oldbrew in atmosphere, climate, pressure, radiative theory, solar system dynamics
Tags: , ,

Tallbloke writes:
Ned Nikolov has produced a video explaining what’s wrong with the currently fashionable radiative greenhouse effect hypothesis and laying out his and Karl Zeller’s better alternative theory which is supported by empirical data from across the solar system, rather than relying on the conjectures of C19th scientists.

Everyone should make the time to watch the whole presentation right through, but knowing how hard it is to find 75 uninterrupted minutes in the frenetic world we live in, Ned has kindly provided these links to the sub-sections:


00:00 – Introduction
01:46 – The Greenhouse-Effect Hypothesis
06:28 – Critical Analysis of the Greenhouse Hypothesis
19:56 – The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
43:27 – Greenhouse-Effect-In-a-Bottle Experiment
52:11 – Summary of Greenhouse-Effect Issues
56:23 – Nikolov-Zeller Climate Discovery
01:04:13 – Implications of the Nikolov-Zeller Discovery
01:08:07 – Nikolov-Zeller Peer-Reviewed Paper
01:08:43 – Pressure Heating & Cooling in the Atmosphere
01:12:48 – Expansion of the Nikolov-Zeller Model
01:14:21 – Greenhouse Hypothesis vs. NZ Climate Concept
01:16:44 – Conclusion

Please review and comment on the presentation. Ned will be around to provide answers to questions and argue his case, so have at it. Support, criticism, suggestions for improvement are all welcome in our open peer review here at the Talkshop.
– – –
Ned Nikolov comments:
This video convincingly demonstrates the physical insolvency of the current climate theory and the COP26 attendees need to pay attention. They should reconsider the present societal response to climate change, which needs to be based on a new understanding of how the Solar system’s climatic systems really work.

Comments
  1. Phil Salmon says:

    Thanks Ned – will try to watch when I can.

    Interesting commentary by Mallen Baker on relative humidity going in the opposite direction to that predicted.

    Miskolczi anyone?

  2. Ned Nikolov says:

    Water is ubiquitous throughout the solar system. There isn’t a rocky planet or moon that does not contain water in the crust. Liquid water and water vapor on our Planet is simply a result of the Earth’s climate system set up by solar heating (i.e. distance to the Sun) and surface atmospheric pressure. Water distributes energy vertically & horizontally, but does not control the global climate on its own.

    Because Earth is the only planet in the Solar System to have liquid water on the surface and vapor clouds in the sky, many think that Earth’s climate is somehow special and controlled by unique and different drivers…. However, this is not the case!

  3. Paul Vaughan says:

    10 “DO!” grease-sea extrapolate[shh!]UN: point mass ample need not fool “redneck CO[II] love”

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2021/08/26/arctic-ice-hockey-stick-august-2021/comment-page-1/#comment-171817

  4. tallbloke says:

    Ned, your video provides some really excellent insights. Who knew Ray Pierrehumbert was channeling Ekholm via numerous reiterations of the same conjecture embedded in old textbooks? But the ‘effective emission altitude’ is an unmeasurable quantity. It’s not credible to base energy policy on a quantity which cannot be measured. I don’t think our policy wonks have any idea how nebulous the theory is.

    Your insight on the equator pole gradient of the Earth and Moon demonstrating the opposite trend to that predicted by the radiative theory is really important too. Actual data shows the supposed greenhouse effect is non-existent and even negative over Earth’s poles despite the equator to pole gradient being much lower than on the moon.

    Too few young meteorologists and climatologists understand the thermodynamics of the gas laws and barometric formulae, and what the implication is for the understanding of what really supports the lapse rate. It’s laughable to think an increase in CO2 from 0.028% of the atmosphere to 0.04 or 0.08% would make any measurable difference to the enormous forces which maintain the temperature equilibrium at Earth’s surface.

  5. tallbloke says:

    Paul V; please label the X axis on your lunar slip cycle plot. ON THAT THREAD.

  6. Ned Nikolov says:

    Roger, well said and I fully agree with you… Now that we have the facts about the old “greenhouse” theory (which could not even get the name of the phenomenon correct!) and the new science showing the true physical nature of the Atmospheric Thermal Effect as a form of adiabatic compression heating that is independent of atmospheric composition, we can move forward and push for a societal overhaul of the current false “climate change” paradigm.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Einstein rejected greenhouse gas theory over a century ago.

    Albert Einstein said no to CO2 radiative warming of the atmosphere

  8. tallbloke says:

    Einstein’s original paper is here, for anyone who wants to interpret what it shows (or not) in relation to the radiative greenhouse theory:
    inspirehep.net/files/9e9ac9d1e25878322fe8876fdc8aa08d

    But I don’t think we should be going down that rabbit hole in this thread. Let’s focus on Ned’s arguments against the radiative hypothesis and for the pressure/insolation hypothesis.

    Another key point in his presentation is that radiative theorists hold that the lapse rate comes about due to radiation and convection. Via his exposition of the derivation of the barometric formula, Ned demonstrates that convection is underpinned by the pressure gradient induced by the action of gravity on atmospheric mass, and solar radiation incident on the surface. Coupled with his demonstration of the dependence of temperature on pressure via the gas law, we can see why the pressure gradient is accompanied by a temperature gradient (the lapse rate).

  9. hdhuffman says:

    Too involved, and comes at the truth (of the temperature-governing lapse rate structure, due to the weight of the atmosphere itself), that I have already explained, and demonstrated clearly with my Venus/Earth atmospheric temperatures comparison, through a maze of bad thinking (“adiabatic” is unnecessary and meaningless, compared to the utterly simple physics of the Standard Atmosphere model; and there simply is no “radiation forcing” affecting atmospheric temperatures).

    Nikolov still hangs onto the terms used in the entirely false consensus “climate science”…and you are lemmings to follow. I am the one who insists that the underlying, unchanging structure of tropospheric temperatures (the “lapse rate”) are maintained by CONDUCTION, not either radiation or convection, because it is just the innumerable jostlings of air molecules, in the hydrostatic condition of the lower atmosphere, that distributes, unwaveringly and precisely, both the pressure and thence the temperature (due, yes, to the “gas laws”, which you managed to get in there, without properly emphasizing how simple is “incident solar radiation + hydrostatic atmosphere + gas laws = atmospheric temperatures”, with the surface of the Earth only a base for the weighty atmosphere).

    So there is no “adiabatic lapse rate”, and only the conduction, throughout the troposphere, of incident solar energy, directly absorbed by the massive, hydrostatic atmosphere. All my discoveries, and all from the definitive Venus/Earth comparison, which is universally ignored, yet which precisely confirms the Standard Atmosphere.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Hi Harry, I’m glad you’ve joined this discussion, because between us we need to develop an Einsteinian ““Everything should be as simple as it can be, but not simpler” narrative which is convincing. You’re conduction argument isn’t convincing, because if it were true, there would be a lot less energy transfer via buoyant convection.

    So we need to take note of what Einstein actually said, rather than the above paraphrase formulated by Zukofsky, which was reported by Alice Calaprice in 1933 as:

    “It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.

    From “On the Method of Theoretical Physics,” the Herbert Spencer Lecture, Oxford, June 10, 1933.

    This is why Ned includes discussion of adiabatic processes and convection, as well as the other forms of energy transfer.

    Your “definitive Venus/Earth comparison”, is “universally ignored” because it’s too simple.

    Ned’s Adiabatic pressure/insolation hypothesis is ignored because people get sidetracked by its complex elements.

    We need to formulate a brief, but sufficient hypothesis which can cut through and command attention. Let’s all make contributions to that, rather than sniping at each other.

  11. tallbloke says:

    Perhaps a short narrative which could get some traction would take the form of the script of a 5 minute animation-rich youtube video which might begin a something like this:

    “The current theory of the Greenhouse effect relies on unprovable conjectures from C19th century meteorologists such as Arrhenius and Ekholm who speculated that the average height in the atmosphere Earth cools to space from would rise if there was more CO2 in it, and modern measurements of the levels of thermal radiation in Earth’s atmosphere. The theory claims that the downward re-radiation of energy emitted from Earth’s surface and absorbed in the atmosphere causes the planet’s surface to warm up from a ‘brightness temperature’ of around -18C to +15C on average.

    “But the average height of emission can never be measured in reality, and we would still see the same radiation levels at the surface and above if something else was really responsible for Earth having much greater surface warmth than it’s moon. That’s because all matter radiates according to its temperature, regardless of why the matter is at that temperature.

    “One of the strong indications that something else really is responsible, is that the radiative theory predicts an absent or even negative greenhouse effect over Antarctica. But Antarctica is much warmer in relation to the Earth’s equator than the airless Moon’s poles are to its equator. In addition to this paradox, data from the Lunar orbiter’s DIVINER experiment has determined that the Moon’s average surface temperature is much colder than it was calculated to be by the method used by climate scientists to calculate the size of Earth’s greenhouse effect. It’s not 33C as they claim, but 90C, which is much more than any radiative theory can account for.

    “A better explanation for Earth’s surface warmth than the idea that it makes itself hotter with its own radiative cooling has been found. It is caused not by the composition of the atmosphere, but by it’s mass under gravity configuring the physical structure of the atmosphere in a way that efficiently turns the Sun’s energy into greater surface warmth…”

  12. I agree about pressure. I have been down a number of deep mines The lapse rate applies below the surface as well. The pressure and temperature can be measured.

  13. tallbloke says:

    A reminder that Arrhenius and Ekholm weren’t the only people thinking about the climate system. Other ideas including the idea that pressure plays a part had already been around for a long time.

    Translation of Fourier (1824) in Burgess (1837, p. 4)

    “The interposition of the air very much modifies the effects of the heat upon the surface of the globe. The solar rays traversing the atmospheric strata which are condensed by their own weight, heat them very unequally: those which are rarest are likewise coldest, because they extinguish and absorb a smaller part of the rays. The heat of the sun, coming in the form of light, possesses the property of penetrating transparent solids or liquids, and loses this property entirely, when by communication with terrestrial bodies, it is turned into heat radiating without light [Infra Red longwave radiation].

    “This distinction of luminous and non-luminous heat, explains the elevation of temperature caused by transparent bodies. The mass of waters which cover a great part of the globe, and the ice of the polar regions, oppose a less obstacle to the admission of luminous heat, than to the heat without light [Fourier understood that long wave ‘back radiation’ doesn’t heat the oceans from outside, and can’t escape easily from their subsurface], which returns in a contrary direction to open space. The pressure of the atmosphere produces an effect of the same kind: but an effect, which, in the present state of the theory, and from want of observations compared with each other, cannot be exactly defined. Whatever it may be, we cannot doubt that the effect which should be attributed to the impression of the solar rays upon a solid body of very large dimensions, by far surpasses that which would be observed in exposing a common thermometer to the same rays.”

    In the first paragraph, Fourier is saying that more of the 1/3 of solar radiation absorbed in the atmosphere gets absorbed where the air is denser (near the surface) and heats it more.

    In the second paragraph, he is proposing that the oceans and atmosphere are warm because they gain energy from the sun more easily than they lose energy from the Earth. This is the “Heat Trapping” which is a concept whose misapplications have bedevilled climate science ever since.

  14. oldmanK says:

    From a mechanical eng point of view, I tend to look at the system from the dynamics of the rotating heat exchanger.

    The rotating heat exchanger builds up temperature from heat source to release it later. The thermal residence time (and therefore rotation rate) and heat capacity would dictate its stable temp.

    See here/link: https://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/planets/ See/compare ‘Temperatures on the Planets’ and ‘A Day on Each of the Planets’

    Then the particulars: a point source of heat (sun) [and the possibility of changing orientation to give variable stable temp points from equator to pole. (Ned would remember this https://www.facebook.com/melitamegalithic/photos/a.433731873468290/1957722401069222/ ) It is superimposed for Eocene and today by this – fig 5 here https://www.terrapub.co.jp/e-library/ecp/pdf/EC0301.PDF

  15. pochas94 says:

    Interesting to hear what Nikolov thinks would happen to surface temperatures if the earth had a fully transparent atmosphere with the same surface pressure.

  16. Ned Nikolov says:

    If by “a fully transparent atmosphere“, you mean the absence of “greenhouse gases”, the answer is simple: The troposphere will be filled with dust picked up by winds from the bone-dry surface (just like on Mars). Dust particles have a much higher absorptivity/emissivity in regard to LW radiation than gases. So, convective currents will carry heat to the top of the atmosphere, and dust particles will radiate it to Space… A natural open system such as a planet will always find a way to radiate heat to Space! The notion that “greenhouse gases” are essential to cool a planet is simply unfounded.

    Furthermore, there is no planet or moon in the solar system with a tangible atmosphere that does not contain radiatively active gases such as CO2, CH4, and water vapor. Also, don’t forget that pressure broadens the IR LW absorption lines of gases, and can turn any gas into a “greenhouse gas”.

    Therefore, a completely transparent atmosphere to outgoing LW radiation does not and cannot exist in reality!

  17. Ned Nikolov says:

    Another important point is that, if the down-welling IR radiation is reduced by decreasing the atmospheric thermal emissivity, this will weaken the convective cooling of the surface, which will have a compensating effect on surface temperature. As a result, changes in the IR back radiation due to variations in the overall atmospheric emissivity cannot affect the global surface temperature.

  18. pochas94 says:

    Thank you.

  19. tallbloke says:

    Ned, is that convection weakening effect quantifiable? What sort of model would be required to estimate it?

  20. Ned Nikolov says:

    Yes, the effect is quantifiable, but requires a detailed convective-radiative model to show it.

  21. tallbloke says:

    If I understand correctly, that reduction in convection would steepen the lapse rate and reduce the emission altitude, thus nixing the enhanced greenhouse effect Ekholm hypothesized. Is that right?

  22. Ned Nikolov says:

    Yes, conceptually that’s true. But, as you know, there is no empirical evidence that the LW emissivity of the atmosphere has changed over the past 40 years.

  23. konradwp1 says:

    Ned gets much right about the failures of the climastrologist’s models, but then makes the huge mistake of claiming there is a net atmospheric greenhouse effect for earth.

    This because Ned ignores the surface properties of planets. You can’t do this. Surface properties are critical in spacecraft thermal control and planets are just the same. For a spacecraft, consider the materials –
    Back silvered quartz.
    White titanium oxide paint.
    Matt black paint.
    Polished aluminum.
    Matt black nickel.
    – for equal solar exposure at 1AU, the first would run below freezing, while the last would reach an equilibrium temperature of several hundred degrees centigrade.

    Surface properties cannot be ignored.

    This is why Ned gets it so wrong. The sun alone would drive our oceans to 335 Kelvin (even assuming 0.3 albedo), were it not for the conductive and evaporative cooling our radiatively cooled atmosphere provides.

    That’s right. There is no net atmospheric greenhouse effect (either radiative or pressure) for earth. Our atmosphere is actually cooling the surface of our planet, not warming it.

    Note to Ned: No, you cannot substitute the average temperature of the lunar surface to determine earth’s surface temperature without atmospheric effects. The speed of rotation is not comparable, and Earth is 71% covered by deep oceans that are opaque to LWIR and translucent to SWIR, SW and UV radiation with a slow speed of internal conduction and convection. Compared to the list of spacecraft surface materials listed above, our oceans would place between matt black paint and polished aluminum.

    Ned is trying to find a pressure explanation for an atmospheric greenhouse effect that doesn’t exist.

  24. Ned Nikolov says:

    @konradwp1,

    You are confusing theory (i.e. what you *think* you know) with reality. Our analysis based on measured NASA planetary data has clearly shown that the adiabatic (pressure-induced) atmospheric thermal effect is real and forms a continuum throughout the Solar System (from airless bodies to the massive atmosphere of Venus). Also, it’s a basic atmospheric physics that temperature decreases with altitude in the troposphere because pressure drops with height. You statements are simply not supported by any observations or a validated physical theory. Also, it sounds to me that you have not read our papers or carefully watched the videos we posted:

    Volokin & ReLlez (2014): https://springerplus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-1801-3-723

    Nikolov & Zeller (2017): https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/New-Insights-on-the-Physical-Nature-of-the-Atmospheric-Greenhouse-Effect-Deduced-from-an-Empirical-Planetary-Temperature-Model.pdf

    If you study our publications and the videos, you’ll realize, how out of touch with reality your presumptions are!

  25. tallbloke says:

    Konrad: Surface properties cannot be ignored.

    If you read Ned’s work you’d find he has done excellent research on the Moon’s regolith properties in the course of determining the surface albedos of the rocky planets.

    Our own research here at the talkshop confirms his finding that rotation rates do not affect the average surface temperatures of airless bodies.

    Your estimate of ~0.6 for the ocean’s emmissivity is derived from your own experiments which, while I commend your efforts in empirical study, do not constitute the last word on the subject.

  26. Ned Nikolov says:

    Konrad says: “Ned is trying to find a pressure explanation for an atmospheric greenhouse effect that doesn’t exist“.

    This sentence reveals deep misunderstanding of our research results. We found and explicitly stated that the radiative “greenhouse effect” does NOT exist. However, the Atmospheric Thermal Enhancement (ATE) is very real and much bigger in terms of surface temperature boost caused by the presence of atmosphere than the surface warming attributed to the putative “greenhouse effect”. We also found using NASA planetary data and an objective theory-free method called “Dimensional Analysis” that total atmospheric pressure is the only parameter that explains ATE across a wide range of planetary bodies throughout the Solar System. We showed that the empirical function describing the ATE dependence on total pressure has all the features of a macro-level physical law, i.e. numerical accuracy, robustness, and a wide environmental range of validity.

    This is far from subjectively “trying to find” something as implied by Konrad!

  27. Just looked at my first youtube video ever! The NZ video linked to above. Very good.

    At 1:15:00 he states in a table that:

    “The atmosphere warms the earth surface adiabatically through the force of air pressure, which enhances the energy received from the sun in a way analogous to compression heating (Earths surface is under constant gas compression!).”

    I would expect much less resistance to the theory is this constant compression ‘thing’ was replaced by density. Unless all of my basic thermo is wrong (you never know!) compression heating is a once only event which decays when the heat dissipates.

    If the section was changes to be similar to:

    “The atmosphere warms the earth surface adiabatically through the effect of air density, which enhances the energy received from the sun due to the greater sensitivity of the denser atmosphere to solar radiation.”

    Then the concept of permanent compression heating is removed. As you state, there is a pressure and density profile on all planets driven by gravity. Is it the density (closeness of vibrating molecules) activated by solar radiation or ‘compression heating!!’.

    I prefer density and solar radiation.

  28. Ned Nikolov says:

    Steve,

    There is a common misperception among the general public and even among PhD scientists that only the act of compression can change the temperature of a gas, and that a steady state of compression cannot maintain a higher temperature. That is NOT true for large system such as a planetary atmosphere. A steady-state compression does keep the steady-state temperature of a gas higher compared to a lower pressure. The proof is in the negative lapse rate found in the troposphere. Air temperature decreases steadily with altitude precisely because pressure drops with height. This is extensively discussed in the video! Also, the Poisson’s Relation quantifying the adiabatic dependence of temperature on pressure clearly shows that there is no need for a variable compression to change the temperature. This Relation refers to a steady-state condition, since it does not contain any time derivatives. See this segment of the video:

    Temperature is affected by pressure, not gas density! That’s because temperature is a linear expression of the gas kinetic energy, and the energy is given by the product PV = Joule. Pressure affects temperature because it’s a FORCE, and energy cannot exist without a force. Density measured in kg m-3 is not a force, and because of that, it is a result (byproduct) of temperature and pressure. Thus, density does NOT drive temperature, since it’s a consequence of temperature.

  29. Thanks for you reply Ned, I will ponder it!

  30. oldbrew says:

    Pressure and density follow very much the same curve according to the ‘standard atmosphere’, as used by (for example) commercial aviation.

    https://www.digitaldutch.com/atmoscalc/graphs.htm

  31. tallbloke says:

    Steve; just to amplify Ned’s response, I want to comment on two aspects to this part of your post:
    “compression heating is a once only event which decays when the heat dissipates.”

    This is true when the container the gas is being compressed into is in an environment where the ambient temperature is lower than the temperature the container reaches during and after the compression takes place, e.g. a car tyre or aqualung being refilled. The surroundings tend to be at a lower temperature than that reached by the tyre or aqualung and simple conduction soon acts to equalise them with the environment. But when the whole atmosphere is compressed by gravity, we have to ask; which surroundings is it going to lose heat to?

    Intuitively, the response to this might be “space”, and that would be right,,, but,,, the Sun is providing heat to the system all the time it’s losing heat to space, it’s not the closed experiment we see in textbooks on thermodynamics. Speaking of which, those textbooks on thermodynamics often contain idealised experiments where the imaginary container is ‘perfectly insulated’, and in those cases, the temperature DOES NOT FALL after the gas is compressed. The Poisson relation is what it is. Gases at a higher pressure have a higher temperature, period.

    PS: When Ned’s theory was picked up by WattsUpWithThat.com after it was initially published here at the talkshop, it was soon followed up with a guest post by a PhD called Ira Glickstein, who was never heard of before and has never been heard from since. He made the “heat dissipates after compression” argument to attack Ned and Karl’s theory, with gleeful backing from Anthony Watts and Willis the wanker. Ten years wasted.

  32. Ned Nikolov says:

    Thank you, Roger!

    If I remember correctly, this fellow named Ira claimed that, in the atmosphere, temperature causes pressure rather than pressure controlling temperature. At that point, I realized that this person was not a physical scientist, and had no clue what he was talking about… In the video, I explain how the lapse rate is a result of a temperature dependence on pressure and the pressure decrease with altitude due to the hydrostatic equilibrium.

  33. tallbloke says:

    Ned, yes, I’d forgotten that part of his post. He made the simple error of thinking the atmosphere has a fixed volume, so that an increase in temperature would increase the pressure. Like most of the current climate science, the concepts were upside down and back to front…

  34. Ned Nikolov says:

    Exactly! If one does not know the simple fact that the atmosphere is an isobaric (constant-pressure-at-the-surface) system and what this implies, one cannot claim to understand atmospheric thermodynamics… I remember a few years ago, Patrick Moore was arguing on Twitter that the tropopause acts like a lid “constraining” the volumetric expansion of the troposphere. When I expose the nonsense of that notion, he blocked me… There are people with a celerity-like status out there, who claim to understand thermodynamics & physics, but they really don’t! 🙂

  35. Ed Fox says:

    The example of people around a campfire is perhaps not strictly true. An unburning log is often used as a reflector in a campfire. I expect you could also use a body in a similar fashion. However the effect drops off rapidly with distance so the contribution of those sitting around the fire is insignificant but not zero.

  36. Ed Fox says:

    The lapse rate and back radiation is the strongest argument against the GHE.

    Back radiation takes energy from the upper atmosphere and delivers this to the lower atmosphere according to GHE. This will result in a lapse rate centered on the Black Body temperature.

    However the lapse rate has no term for Back Radiation. This is proof by contradiction that the observed back radiation is the effect is the lapse rate not the cause.

    To me this contradiction goes to the heart of the scientific method. You cannot have truth and contradiction. Thus either the formula for lapse rate is wrong or back radiation cannot be the cause of GHE.

    I cannot state this too strongly.

  37. Ed Fox says:

    The diagram with temperature on the horizontal axis and altitude on the vertical axis is key. The vertical line is Black Body temperature. The sloped line is lapse rate. The horizontal line at the intersection of black body and lapse rate is the effective radiation height.

    Now consider the triangle formed by the surface, black body and lapse rate. This represents the energy delivered to the lower atmosphere and surface by back radiation.

    Now consider the triangle formed by the black body, lapse rate and top of atmosphere. This represents the energy taken from the upper atmosphere by back radiation.

    Thus without a lapse rate the area of these 2 triangles goes to zero and there is no back radiation energy transfer.

    And since the lapse rate is not caused by back radiation because (1) a process cannot be its own cause and (2) the lapse rate has no term for back radiation. Back radiation is simply an observed effect of this process, not a cause.

    Therefore back radiation is not the cause of the greenhouse effect because it is the effect of the lapse rate. Therefore the lapse rate and by extension the terms in the lapse rate are the cause of enhanced surface warming.

  38. tallbloke says:

    There are some real back-radiative fluxes affecting surface temperature. Cloud cover at night in the high latitudes really does keep the surface warmer for example. But these are localised effects, and the water vapour that forms the cloud cooled the surface somewhere else when it evaporated.

    The key point about Ned’s discovery is that it is accurate for the annual average global surface temperature across hugely different condition on planets and moons spread throughout the solar system. Whatever sub processes are going on in those bodies’ climate systems with evapo-transpiration, thermal radiation and conduction, they have to sum up to the surface T dictated by surface air pressure, the surface albedo, and the amount of energy arriving from the Sun at the top of the atmosphere. This means that cloud albedo, longwave radiation levels at various heights in the atmospheric column, wind fields, and all the other climatic and meteorological indices are emergent properties ultimately determined by the surface air pressure, surface albedo and solar radiation.

    The tricky bit is predicting how those sub-processes will behave at the localised level, because chaotic turbulent mixing has very complicated chains of cause and effect and feedbacks at work within it. We know the climatic sum, but can’t predict the weather induced by the parts.

    And as for climatic change, we know, if Ned is right, that changing CO2 levels won’t affect surface T. Changing solar output and it’s effect on cloud albedo will though. That’s why we here at the talkshop have spent a lot of time and effort developing a solar prediction model.

  39. Ned Nikolov says:

    To Ed Fox:

    Gases do not reflect IR LW radiation, but most hard objects do reflect a little bit of thermal radiation. In most bodies, however, this reflection is so small that it can be ignored for all practical purposes. Metals like silver, gold, aluminum, and copper reflect substantial amounts of IR LW radiation, which is why they can be used as radiant barriers to insulate against thermal radiation losses. Therefore, the campfire analogy I used in the video is correct from a practical standpoint of view, since it relays a physically correct message.

  40. Ed Fox says:

    re: tallbloke on September 8, 2021 at 6:56 am

    determined by the surface air pressure, surface albedo and solar radiation.

    CO2 levels won’t affect surface T. Changing solar output and it’s effect on cloud albedo will though.
    =====≠===
    This appears to be a contradiction. If T is fully determined by surface albedo in first paragraph how can cloud albedo in second paragraph affect T?

  41. Dear Roger:

    “Intuitively, the response to this might be “space”, and that would be right,,, but,,, the Sun is providing heat to the system all the time it’s losing heat to space, it’s not the closed experiment we see in textbooks on thermodynamics. Speaking of which, those textbooks on thermodynamics often contain idealised experiments where the imaginary container is ‘perfectly insulated’, and in those cases, the temperature DOES NOT FALL after the gas is compressed. The Poisson relation is what it is. Gases at a higher pressure have a higher temperature, period.”

    I am sorry, are you stating that the only systems in the known universe that does not cool after compression are the atmosphere of planets?

    I think the NZ theory is great. Seems plausible, logical and works. What I can not accept (sorry) is the concept you just mentioned above:

    “the Sun is providing heat to the system all the time it’s losing heat to space…”.

    Yes you are right, but the compression effect has been and gone and we are left with the gas and its density.

    The legacy of compression is the increase in density. The solar radiation operating on the increased density gives an increased temperature.

    By mentioning density and not pressure, would, I believe would overcome all resistance to this theory. I believe Ned’s mention for force, work, pressure has led him down a poor descriptive path.

    The curves of density and pressure are effectively the same, so it will work with the word exchange pressure == density…

  42. Ed Fox says:

    Ned, I agree with your presentation regarding theoretical flat disk black body temperature bring different than observed because
    :
    (((a+b)/2)^4) < ((a^4+b^4)/2)

    This tells us that the average radiation must be greater than the radiation of the average.

    Which tells me you can only use radiation to calculate bounds not averages.

  43. oldbrew says:

    Steve Richards says: the compression effect has been and gone

    Gravity is continuous?

  44. tallbloke says:

    Ed Fox: If T is fully determined by surface albedo in first paragraph how can cloud albedo in second paragraph affect T?

    Surface T set by pressure, surface albedo and solar input is the long term baseline T
    Cyclic changes in surface T on decadal to miillennial timescales are caused by solar variation and its effect on cloud albedo.

    So although cloud albedo is mostly a pretty stable quantity emergent from the pressure and long term average insolation, it is modulated by solar variation. I seem to recall Ned estimates this might amount to +/- 1.5C on centennial timescales. By integrating the varying solar input to mimic its effect on the high heat capacity oceans, I found that it replicates the temperature record well, especially once a ~60yr oceanic oscillation is included (AMO, PDO).

  45. Ed Fox says:

    Ned, the left hand side of the inequality is the flat disk BB which yields a theoretical 1100 watts solar for T of -18C.

    However the right hand side tells us the observed flux will be greater than 1100C for and observed average T of -18C. So the observed average T must be decreased until the average flux is 1100 watts.

    This agrees with your presentation that the observed T of a sphere must be less than the theoretical BB flat disk T.

  46. tallbloke says:

    Steve: but the compression effect has been and gone and we are left with the gas and its density.

    This is what people have so much trouble understanding. They think the “compression effect” is a transient phenomenon because their real world experience is that compressed gases cool to the surrounding environment until they equilibriate.

    I presume you’ll agree that if you put a lot of boiler lagging around the aqualung you’re filling, the “compression effect” of the cylinder getting warm will last longer. What if it was perfectly insulated? Well, the cylinder would remain warm forever. Gases at higher pressures have higher temperatures, as stated by the gas laws.

    The legacy of compression is the increase in density

    As Oldbrew points out, gravity doesn’t go away after it acts on atmospheric mass to create the pressure gradient in the atmosphere. It keep on keeping on, the pressure remains higher nearer the surface, and so does the temperature. As Ned pointed out: “the energy is given by the product PV = Joule. Pressure affects temperature because it’s a FORCE, and energy cannot exist without a force. Density measured in kg m-3 is not a force, and because of that, it is a result (byproduct) of temperature and pressure.”

    The curves of density and pressure are effectively the same, so it will work with the word exchange pressure == density

    This works both ways, so there should be no reason you can’t accept Ned’s theory. What you seem to be saying is that people would find it easier to accept if we spoke of density rather than pressure. Ned gave you his reasons for the primacy of the pressure, but it certainly wouldn’t do any harm to mention them both, so that’s something Ned could think about.

    Please keep batting this one back and forth with us Steve, it’s vital that we find a way to get people to understand this crucial aspect of Ned’s theory, so please help us by continuing the argument. I hope we’ll be able to work out a formulation which you’ll be able to agree with.

  47. Ned Nikolov says:

    There seems to be some confusion about the role of albedo in regulating the global surface temperature (Ts). Luckily, we have a special video dedicated to this topic, which was presented at the 101st AMS Conference last January:

  48. Ed Fox says:

    rotation rates do not affect the average surface temperatures of airless bodies.
    =========
    My work on the subject shows that increasing the rotation rate reduces the variance in T which reduces the outgoing radiation for a given average T. Thus the body must warm to restore the same outgoing radiation.

    This is a result of the inequality I mentioned above. Even Willis finally mentioned on WUWT that adding an atmosphere will affect surface average T by reducing variance in T which affects 4th power SB nonlinearly with T.
    This nonlinearity requires that the average must change to compensate for a change in the variance.

  49. Ed Fox says:

    There seems to be some confusion about the role of albedo
    ======
    OK. Watched the vid and albedo contradiction now makes sense. Climate determines albedo as part of climate system/regulation/feedback. So albedo is effect not cause of surface T.

    External forces can also act on albedo and thus change climate, but climate system will try and compensate and restore balance over long term.

    For example, your lawn mower gas engine likely has governor to keep speed constant. You can push on governor with your hand and change speed but once your hand is removed the governor will restore previous speed.

  50. Ned Nikolov says:

    Empirical data strongly suggest that the spin rate of a planet does not have a measurable impact on global surface temperature (Ts). This is confirmed by the results from our analysis. If rotation had an affect on Ts, then the 6 planetary bodies we use (which have very different rotation periods!) would not fit on the same Ts/Tna – P curve as they do, provided that our model does not include spin rate as a predictor.

    Also, our 2014 paper devotes an entire section discussing the effect of rotation speed on Ts and shows that physically rotation cannot really affect the average global surface temperature of a planet. See:

    https://springerplus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-1801-3-723

  51. Ed Fox says:

    I still think campfire analogy is a poor model to dispute back radiation because the people around the campfire have a non zero effect on the temp of the fire.

    A good analogy would be one where there is zero effect. Otherwise the viewers of the presentation such as myself will doubt the accuracy of the rest of the presentation.

    In science a non zero effect is not the same as zero effect regardless of magnitude. It is attention to the small details that are most important.

  52. Ned Nikolov says:

    To Ed Fox:

    Ed, you’ve got it right about the role of albedo! I like your analogy with the governor of a lawn mower.

    Our planetary data analysis gave rise to a new paradigm not only about the Atmospheric Thermal Effect, but planetary albedo as well. Our conclusion that there is a baseline albedo, which is a byproduct of the climate system and does not impact Ts, and that this baseline can be perturbed to a limited extent by Sun’s magnetic activity, in which case Δα does affect Ts, is not intuitively obvious. As with other physical phenomena, the role of albedo is more complicated than initially meets the eye… 🙂

  53. stpaulchuck says:

    “and the COP26 attendees need to pay attention. ” <— based on a false premise.

    They are not one whit about actual science. They are power and money mad pols and industrialists. This totally false CAGW rubbish they know is false but it serves their purpose of bringing more and more control over the lives and economy of the public.

    Asking those folks to follow and adhere to the real science of folks like Nikolov and Zeller is like asking the Devil to repent and preach the love of Christ and a Christian life. Not likely.

  54. Ed Fox says:

    Empirical data strongly suggest that the spin rate of a planet does not have a measurable impact on global surface temperature (Ts).
    ===========
    Then this indicates that radiation in and radiation out are not directly connected to Ts. Because it is inescapable that mathematically outgoing radiation decreases as spin rate increases.

    Try an example using 15C as the average surface temp on both day and night, then use 30C and 0C as the average day and night.

    Do the SB from this and you will get maybe 1C predicted temp diff required to restore radiative balance (It has been awhile I don’t have the exact numbers.)

  55. Ed Fox says:

    Consider a slow turning planet with average day and night time temps of 300k and 100k. Average temp overall is 200k. Ignoring albedo and area, incoming and outgoing radiation is proportional to:
    (300^4+100^4)/2 = 82/2 x10^8
    Now spin this planet rapidly such that both sides are at 200k. Now the outgoing radiation is:
    (200^4+200^4)/2 = 32/2 x10^8
    The rapidly turning planet now has a radiation imbalance and must warm to approx 253k to restore the balance.

  56. Ed Fox says:

    PS: as per my previous example showing that according to radiative theory a slow turning planet with average temp of 200k will have to warm to as much as 253k if it is rapidly turning.

    This conclusion follows from radiative theory that you can determine average temperature of a planet from average outgoing radiation using SB Law as is practiced by Climate Science..

    Obviously if observation says otherwise it could well be that climate science is perhaps not using SB Law correctly or I have misunderstood how it should be applied.

    I do think the 4 the root relationship between temperature and radiation is going to generate many interesting results when applied mathematically.

    This is perhaps another area of investigation showing that SB Law cannot be used to predict average temp because you need to know statistical variance.

  57. Ned Nikolov says:

    Ed,

    It is mathematically impossible to estimate the average global temperature of a spherical planet from the average outgoing radiation using the simple (isothermal) form of the SB radiation law! It has to do with Holder’s inequality between integrals. We explain this in our 2014 paper, which you should read to get a better understand:

    https://springerplus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-1801-3-723

    Also, the outgoing IR LW radiation does NOT depend on the speed of rotation!

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    There are 2 things I’ve noticed Ned repeatedly has to repeat:
    1. global average (long-run) surface temperature
    2. observations

  59. Ned Nikolov says:

    Paul, yes that’s correct. People often mix up a theory they might have in their heads with reality or observations. These 2 things always need to be kept separate… 🙂

  60. Roger:

    “I presume you’ll agree that if you put a lot of boiler lagging around the aqualung you’re filling, the ‘compression effect’ of the cylinder getting warm will last longer.”

    I agree.

    “What if it was perfectly insulated? Well, the cylinder would remain warm forever.”

    I agree.

    “Gases at higher pressures have higher temperatures, as stated by the gas laws.”

    I agree – were on a roll here..

    “As Oldbrew points out, gravity doesn’t go away after it acts on atmospheric mass to create the pressure gradient in the atmosphere. It keep on keeping on, the pressure remains higher nearer the surface, and so does the temperature.”

    Oh dear! A string of apparent facts. Some I agree with but to what end do you state them?

    Yes, gravity is persistent.

    Yes, the pressure is higher on the surface, then you use the phrase:

    “As Ned pointed out: “the energy is given by the product PV = Joule.”

    How does that help? What does it mean? Part of a gas law formula? Could it be specified in full?

    Rog, you know that a hot object cools. You know that gravity operating on a gas will compress lower levels of gas more than the higher levels. You know from the gas formulas that density is linked directly with pressure and volume.

    I am not sure why you appear to be throwing practical reality out of the window. Hot objects cool.

    Don’t want to use the word ‘proxy’ but pressure is a good proxy for density.

    If you have a cubic metre of air at sea level, exposed to radiation from the sun or ground, it will warm up and suffer a temperature rise.
    A identical cubic metre of air at a higher level will exposed to radiation from the sun or ground, it will warm up and suffer a temperature rise. The difference between the two cubic metres is the density of air within and therefore the maximum temperature rise expected. Yes the pressure will be different, but as we know in the real world, pressure heating effect dissipates.

  61. Ed Fox says:

    It is mathematically impossible to estimate the average global
    =====
    Ned, I’m well aware of the problem outlined in your paper having independently come to the same conclusion.

    The simple algebraic inequality I introduced above is how I first came across the issue.

    However I do not agree that calculating temperature is impossible.

    The problem is that average temperature itself is problematic. How do you average the temperature of land and sea when they have vastly different heat capacities.

    A simple average of the temperature of different substances is mathematical garbage because temperature is a fraction. Energy/mass. So when you add two temperatures you are adding fractions without a common denominator. In effect you are adding 1/2 + 1/3 = 2/5.

  62. Ned Nikolov says:

    Steve:

    You appear to be confused as well. Pressure is NOT a “good proxy for density” at all! That’s because atmospheric density is a function of (depends on) pressure and temperature. Thus, you can have the same surface pressure set by the mass of atmosphere above a unit area and gravity, but vastly different near-surface air densities depending on the solar heating or distance from the Sun. For example, Titan has 49% higher surface pressure than Earth, but more than 4 times the molar density of Earth’s atmosphere. That’s because Titan is much further from the Sun than Earth and receives 92 times less SW radiation than Earth.

    About PV = Joule, this means that the kinetic energy and temperature of a gas CANNOT exist without a pressure. In fact, no kinetic energy can exist without the force of pressure. Even EM radiation has pressure despite the fact that photons are supposed to be massless! Radiation pressure has been used to propel the Japanese spacecraft IKAROS:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_sail

    Not understanding that pressure controls the temperature of a gas in an isobaric system like the atmosphere, is to not understand the very foundation of atmospheric physics!

  63. Ed Fox says:

    It is mathematically impossible to estimate the average global
    ≠======!=!!
    I do not agree. If you first average the radiation then I agree the average temperature will be less than that predicted by SB.

    If however you grid the earth and sample radiation for each grid square and convert each square to temperate and then average the grid, you will get a similar result to GISS and others.

    However, GISS and others are assuming that land, sea and air all have the same heat capacities and thus have a common denominator allowing vthem to be averaged.

    While in point of fact the GAT as calculated using a simple average is non physical nonsense.

  64. Ed Fox says:

    It is mathematically impossible to estimate the average global
    ========
    W Briggs in his articles on WUWT routinely pointed out the erroneous results of early averaging. He pointed out that if you must average, then this should be the final step in your analysis.

    The problem with calculating surface temperature of a sphere as sampled by a flat disk/4 is that you are early averaging. You cannot “undo” this averaging to arrive a surface grid of temperatures to calculate an average.

    I suspect this is inherent in the observed average temperatures of the planets and moons in out solar system. They are being observed largely from a single point observer which is early averaging the radiation to derive temperature.

    I suspect this explains why the moon data shows lower temperatures than previously observed. Only now do we have sufficient resolution to do late averaging of lunar temperatures, shifting our results from the high side of the inequality to the low side.

  65. Ed Fox says:

    (((a+b)/2)^4) < ((a^4+b^4)/2)

    Here is the simple algebraic inequality I introduced earlier showing the effect of late vs early averaging.

    This shows that the SB law will deliver different estimates of surface temperature, depending on late or early averaging.

    This may we be a discrete form of the Holder inequality. In any case it shows that the sampling method used affects the results.

    However the example I gave of the spinning plant assumes you are using late averaging and you radiation sensor is of sufficient resolution that it can sample each grid square of the sphere independently.

    isnt there a famous quote? Something like: In science nothing is impossible. It is simply awaiting discovery.

  66. Ed Fox says:

    Temperature and speed are intensive properties. The problem with averaging can be easily demonstrated.

    A car travels for 1 hr at 20 mph and 2 hrs at 50 mph. What is the average speed?

    The naive answer is 35. That is how Global Average Temperature (GAT) is calculated. However if you were paying attention in school you know the answer is 40 mph. The solution is to first convert speed into its extensive properties. Distance and time.

    The same problem exists with temperature. You have a sea temp of 20C and air temp over land of 0C. A simple average of 10C has no physical meaning.

    In the earths surface was all the same material then a simple average will work. But different materials will not unless you first convert temperature to energy, mass, and specific heat.

    The satellite records, if they are sampling only air temperatures they are somewhat correct, but the specific heat of air changes with temp and pressure and humidity so even they have it wrong if they try and do a simple average.

  67. mwalim says:

    On the video Demystifying….

    , a bit fast for me and not sure I understand about CO2 is not reflecting heat back but radiating it.  I think of it as IR exciting electrons in the CO2 and H2O de- exciting and releasing energy but this will not be in IR region but more likely scattered light photons – is that correct or have I got it wrong?

  68. Ed Fox says:

    Also, the outgoing IR LW radiation does NOT depend on the speed of rotation
    ≠=======
    Ned, I never said it did. Radiation depends on actual temperature. Which affects both the average and variance.

    The rate of spin affects the variance in temperature. This should not be controversial. And because SB is non linear this change in variants affects radiation. This is simple to demonstrate mathematically which I did in my posting.

    And since radiation in and out must match this change in outgoing radiation due to a change in variance must result in a change in temperature to restore the radiative balance. The math behind this should not be in any way controversial.

  69. oldbrew says:

    ‘Standard radiation theory exactly explains the temperature distribution all along the Moon’s equator’ – claims David Appell

    https://papundits.wordpress.com/2021/08/31/greenhouse-saturation-research-could-kill-the-climate-emergency/comment-page-1/#comment-94986
    – – –
    Where can we read this ‘standard’ radiation theory?

  70. oldmanK says:

    Ed Fox says: September 9, 2021 at 4:57 pm
    Quote “My work on the subject shows that increasing the rotation rate reduces the variance in T which reduces the outgoing radiation for a given average T. Thus the body must warm to restore the same outgoing radiation.”

    Here “warm” is taken to mean ‘raise its temperature’. Correct?

    Taking (again) a comparison with rotating heat exchangers, rotation rate has ‘some’ effect, however there is a point where heat exchange stalls as rotation reduces beyond a certain point.

    In the situation of a planet like body exposed to a heat source, stall can occur from very slow rotation (venus may be a case in point), or from being axially aligned to the heat source. Which makes axial tilt wrt ecliptic also a factor.

  71. Ned Nikolov says:

    The “stall” of the effect of rotation speed on global temperature simply means NO effect! That’s what empirical data show as well.

    The myth that rotation speed impacts the average temperature of a sphere comes from 1-D simulation models that do not consider the lateral (horizontal) transfer (conduction) of heat. It’s a model artifact rather than physical reality!

  72. Ed Fox says:

    of a sphere comes from 1-D simulation models
    ========
    Hi Ned, I’m not trying to dispute observations in any way.

    What I’m saying is that an increase in temperature variance will result in an increase in radiation via SB Law for any given average.

    Let’s leave confounding issues aside and discuss this first for an airless sphere with near uniform surface such that average temperature has physical meaning.

    Is there any doubt that for such an object

    1. Increasing rotational speed will reduce variance.
    2. By SB Law increased variance yields increased outgoing radiation for a given average.
    3. To maintain radiative balance average temp must decrease with increasing variance or increase with decreasing variance.

    Pls let me know which 1,2, and/or 3 we are not agreed.

    By corollary this may explain why increasing variance has been associated with decreasing temperatures in the historical records.

  73. […] life on the basis of an irrational fear of trace gases leads nowhere good. Time for a complete re-think.– – –Global computer usage produces twice the greenhouse gases as the aviation industry, new […]

  74. Ned Nikolov says:

    Ed,

    If by “variance” you mean a the diurnal temperature amplitude at a point, I think it depends on the thermal conductivity and thermal inertia of the substrate (the ground). Airless bodies like the Moon have a porous regolith of very low thermal conductivity unless the body is far enough from the Sun and its surface is covered by some type of ice (typically water, CO2, or nitrogen). Under a low thermal conductivity and a low thermal inertia, it takes quite a rapid rotation (not found among bodies of the Solar System) to significantly reduce the diurnal temp. amplitude at the surface. That’s because, the ground quickly reaches an equilibrium temperature with the absorbed solar radiation.

  75. Ed Fox says:

    If by “variance” you mean a the diurnal temperature amplitude at a point
    ==========/
    Hi Ned. Variance is a defined statistical property. It is the flip side of average.

  76. Ed Fox says:

    to significantly reduce the diurnal temp. amplitude
    ====≠=
    Hi Ted, I see the error. Variance is not a measure of amplitude. From Google: “In statistics, variance measures variability from the average or mean.”

    In the case of a rotating object, the curve of temperature should approximate a sinusoidal. On the hot side this sinusoidal may well be amplitude limited.

    For a given amplitude, the closer this waveform comes to a square tooth the greater the variance. The closer this comes to a saw tooth the lower the variance.

    For a very slow turning object the wave form of temperature will more approximate a square wave with steep leading and trailing edges, maximizing variance.

    As this rotation speeds up the leading and trailing edges of the waveform will tend to become less steep, minimizing variance.

    As rotation speeds even more a decrease in amplitude will eventually occur, further minimizing variance.

    Ned, hopefully this is clear. Are we now agreed that:

    1. Increasing rotational speed will reduce variance

    Thanks for looking at this.

  77. Ed Fox says:

    PS: typo. Ned not Ted. Apologies.
    PPS: by curve of temperature I mean actual temperature at any given point with day/night pattern for rotating bodies. Average and variance are calculated at that given point. Global average is the randomly sampled average of all such given points on the sphere.

  78. oldmanK says:

    Ed Fox says: September 11, 2021 at 8:50 pm

    Quote “By corollary this may explain why increasing variance has been associated with decreasing temperatures in the historical records.”

    First, thanks for the ‘statistical perspective’; provides a much better grasp on the matter.

    I’m intrigued about the ‘historical records of decreasing temperatures’. Can we have a better lead on this point? Tks.

  79. Ed Fox says:

    I’m intrigued about the ‘historical records of decreasing temperatures’
    =========
    Anecdotally we hear that periods such as the LIA experienced wild swings in weather while periods like the Medieval Warm Periods had relatively mild weather.

    One of the failings in climate science is the reliance on averages. If you have one foot in the oven and the other in the freezer, you are on average comfortable.

    What is not being considered is variance. The measure of how much your feet depart from the average.

    For those not of a statistical background, think of average as the DC component of a signal and variance as the AC component.

    Variance is non linear power 2 so that the result is always positive regardless if the difference from the average is positive or negative.

    In sampling theory the root of variance becomes standard deviation and likely is also the basis for RMS. Not my field.

    Anyhow. In physics there is a property called degrees of freedom. Meaning that a change in radiation does not necessarily result in a change in average temperature. Instead it may result in a change in variance without any change in average.

    This is because radiation is power and DC and AC are also power. And you can increase the power by boosting the DC componenys which is what climate science assumes will happen. But you can also increasr power by leaving the DC unchanged and boosting the AC.

    Nowhere is this considered when dealing with averages alone. Think of your housr mains. The average voltage is zero. Not 120 or 240. The root of the variance is 120 or 240.

    So for any given input solar radiation, if the average temperature drops, there would be a drop in outgoing radiation. Climate science tells us the average temperature must rise tovrestore the balance.

    Howerver this is not true because in we increase the variance this will increase the outgoing radiation without any change in average temperature.

    Rhus, colder aberage temperatures are likely to be matches by increased variability in temperature.

  80. oldbrew says:

    This looks interesting…

    IPCC Method Linking Climate Change To Greenhouse Gases Disputed
    11 SEP. 2021

    ‘A new study in “Climate Dynamics” has criticized a key methodology that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses to attribute climate change to greenhouse gases, raising questions about the validity of research that relied on it and prompting a response from one of the scientists who developed the technique.

    The new study’s author, economist Ross McKitrick, told The Epoch Times in an exclusive interview that he thinks his results have weakened the IPCC’s case that greenhouse gases cause climate change.

    The methodology, known as “optimal fingerprinting,” has been used to link greenhouse gases to everything from temperature to forest fires, precipitation, and snow cover.

    McKitrick compared optimal fingerprinting to the way law enforcement officers use fingerprinting to identify criminals.

    “[They] take this big smudge of data and say, ‘Yeah, the fingerprints of greenhouse gas are on it,’” he said.’

    More here — https://climatechangedispatch.com/ipcc-method-linking-climate-change-to-greenhouse-gases-disputed/

  81. Ed Fox says:

    “optimal fingerprinting,”
    ========
    “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”

    Optimal Fingerprinting relies on a circular argument, that we know how much of the variability in the training data that went into climate models was due to humans and how much is due to nature.

    Climate science assumes natural variability is low. Thus the variability we see is a fingerprint of human activity.

    As noted in my post on historical climate variability, this is because of inadequate treatment of statistical variance. Proxy data does not preserve the AC signal in historical data, only the DC signal.

    Quite simply, we cannot validate “optimal fingerprinting” because a key statistical property, namely variance is missing from the historical records.

  82. Ed Fox says:

    Ned I was ready this post

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/12/surface-radiation-balance/

    Willis makes the observation that radiation between rhe 2 hemuspheres is balance reason unknown. I seem to recall this is the secong rime i have heard this.

    I belueve it is support for your approach because it argues that what is being observed is a result not a cause.

  83. bonbon says:

    Saw that WUWT post too – see the discussion paragraph. It sure looks like something broke.

  84. hunterson7 says:

    Beautiful.

  85. Ed Fox says:

    Ned, Roger

    The reason i am trying to demonstrate that temperature variance affects surface temperature is because adding an atmosphere to a planet also affect temperature variance.

    And it is central to GHG theory that adding an atmosphere to a planet does not change temp. That the 33 C warming on earth is due to GHG alone and the atmosphere without GHG has no affect.

    So I believe this supports the NZ conclusion but perhaps not the mechanism.

    I also believe it calls into question mainstream GHG theory which ignores the effect of statistical variance.

  86. oldbrew says:

    Lunar Surface Temperature and Emissivity Retrieval From Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment Sensor
    Huazhong Ren, Jing Nie, Jiaji Dong, Rongyuan Liu, Wenzhe Fa, Ling Hu, Wenjie Fan
    First published: 04 October 2020

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EA001436
    – – –
    Not sure how to interpret this but it looks interesting. Figures 6(c) and 9(c) are surface temperature histograms for daytime (section 3.1) and nighttime (section 3.2).

    Daytime centres around 270K and nighttime around 80K in the histograms.

  87. Nelson says:

    Maybe this is a stupid question, but here goes. Doesn’t the ideal gas law tell us that molecular density is what matters for temperature? How can it be that an atmosphere on a planet that has density doesn’t conform to the ideal gas law? Isn’t what ned is saying just an application of the ideal gas law?

  88. Dan says:

    @Ned Nikolov says: September 8, 2021 at 5:54 pm

    I’m definitely not a phd. I can often follow the math, but it doesn’t always give me an understanding of what’s going on. I’m trying to get a “gut” idea of what you are saying regarding “steady state compression”, and here’s what I’ve come up with that makes sense to me:

    I’m picturing the (inevitable) planet with a non-GHG CO₂ atmosphere. The average pressure at the planet’s surface is dependent on the total amount of CO₂ distributed around the plant which determines the number of molecules over any one spot. More CO₂ means more pressure. Incoming solar flux heats the planet’s surface, which in turn heats the atmosphere via conduction.

    In general, the surface temperature is governed by the ideal gas formula (PV=nRT). A way to look at this is to look at an isolated volume of gas at one point on the planet surface. I picture an open-topped cardboard box with a volume of one cubic foot/meter/cubit/whatever. For that particular volume, P = nRT.

    Rearranging terms, T = P / nR. As we’ve already stipulated, P is governed by the number of CO₂ molecules stacked over our box and so doesn’t change. As incoming power (watts/m²) increases, the only way T can stay the same is if nR gets smaller with an increase in solar flux. R is a constant, so that would mean a decrease in “n”. This could only occur if the atmosphere could expand infinitely, but of course it can’t because of gravity. This, of course, means that T *must* increase.

    All this is complicated by such things as the fact that even though the atmosphere is getting less dense (n getting smaller), the actual density at our box is higher than any spot above, all the way to the TOA. But still, here we see “steady state compression” keeping the temperature higher than it would be without an atmosphere and without resorting to “back radiation” and such.

    I totally get this has all the sophistication you might expect from an eight-year-old, but it feels right to me.

  89. Oldbrew, it is well known that for surfaces that the absorptivity and emissivity changes with temperature (eg fig 5-12 & 5-13 in Perry’s chemical engineering Handbook). Then with Wien’s displacement law the emissivity changes with wavelength. Climate Scientists really do not understand the Stefan-Boltzmann equation which applies to surfaces in a vacuum. It does not apply to gases which have no surface and need to be treated on a volume basis -CO2 has zero absorptivity at 10 micron and only has a small absorptivity/ emissivity at a wavelength of 14.8 micron (equivalent to a temperature of about 196K)

  90. Ned Nikolov says:

    Nelson,

    No, the Ideal Gas Law does not tell us that air density drives temperature. Density is simply a consequence (byproduct) of pressure and and temperature. The Gas Law states:

    PV = nRT,

    where PV = Joule is the kinetic energy of the gas. Temperature is a linear expression of that energy. Note that, by definition, energy cannot exist without pressure, because pressure is a FORCE applied over a unit area. In planetary atmospheres, surface atmospheric pressure (P) is the adiabatic component of the climate system, since P depends on atmospheric mass, gravity and planet’s surface area. Volume (V) is the diabatic component, since it depends on the intensity of solar heating. So, the total kinetic energy of a planetary atmosphere consists of a diabatic and adiabatic component. Modern climate science has totally misinterpreted this fact and mostly missed the adiabatic component of climate in the “Greenhouse” theory!

  91. Dan says:

    @Dan September 13, 2021 at 9:35 pm

    Aargh! Things have been hectic and I was in a hurry. I meant to say the atmosphere consists of inert N₂, not CO₂. Apologies.

  92. Dan says:

    @Ned Nikolov September 14, 2021 at 6:14 am

    “Volume (V) is the diabatic component, since it depends on the intensity of solar heating….”

    I understand here that you are talking about the volume of the entire atmosphere, or perhaps a column from ground to TOA. That makes perfect sense.

    However, in my example above, it proved more useful (to me) to see what happens to a fixed volume at ground level in order to understand ATE. For example, as the volume of the atmosphere increases due to an increase in the “intensity of solar heating”, the number of molecules (n) contained in the fixed volume at the ground decreases. Given a constant P, T *must* increase. Just another application of the ideal gas law to look at something in a different way.

  93. David Appell says:

    Harry Huffman’s Venus/Earth atmospheric temperatures comparison is ignored because it ignores planetary albedoes — that’s how blinkered it is.

    He’s known this for years.

  94. David Appell says:

    oldbrew says:
    ‘Standard radiation theory exactly explains the temperature distribution all along the Moon’s equator’ – claims David Appell
    Where can we read this ‘standard’ radiation theory?

    Here:

    https://davidappell.blogspot.com/2012/04/norfolk-constabulary-made-wrong-charges.html

  95. David Appell says:

    oldbrew says:
    Einstein rejected greenhouse gas theory over a century ago.

    Could you please quote in Einstein’s paper where he rejected GHG theory?

  96. Dan says:

    @Dan September 14, 2021 at 1:31 pm

    I also should have pointed out that my example also makes clear that as P is proportional to the overall amount of gas comprising the atmosphere, and T is proportional to P (assuming an ideal gas), then T will also be greater for planets with “thicker” atmospheres. I suppose the same applies to acceleration due to gravity (g).

    I hope what I’m saying has merit. Looking at it this way makes me gives me much more confidence that there really is something to NZ’s ATE theory.

  97. angech says:

    A few comments, may spread them out.

    First I am surprised and alarmed at Ned’s dismissal of Eds point about the rotation speed affecting the average temperature of the planet.
    I understand that there are good reasons for and against this argument.
    I think the overall maths comes down on the side that it does affect the average temperature of a planet..
    The faster a planet rotates the closer it approximates an ideal black body and hence the closer it approaches to the ideal average emitting temperature of the SB law.
    Note; any rotation energy is separate to and does not add any new energy to the incoming and out going energy which remains the same.
    The planet cannot get any hotter due to the rotation, it merely approaches the ideal average temperature which it cannot go above.
    A non spinning planet ie in synchronous orbit same side facing the heating source has two different levels of energy output but the average of the emitting temperatures [ the average temperature of that planet] is lower than that of a spinning planet] .

    What does this say when Ned dismisses this?
    To me it says that part of his theory cannot include this fact.
    A theory that does not include all the relevant facts must have some problems with it no matter how close it can get to observations

    As stated by someone elsewhere
    “There is a difference between effective radiative temperature, which depends only on energy balance (i.e., energy in = energy out) and the average of the temperature, which will depend on how the temperature is distributed across the surface. Essentially, given the T^4 dependence for energy radiated into space, means that if you have two planets with the same incoming energy, the average of the temperature of the planet with a large temperature difference between the two hemispheres will be smaller than the average of the temperature of planet where the hemispheres have similar temperatures. However, the effective radiative temperatures will be the same.”

  98. angech says:

    The second point I have mad before.
    Ned is coming from one perspective, pressure, and dismissing other perspectives GHG theory.
    Why?
    Because if you incorporate both theories you double the effect and shoot yourself in the foot.
    If both theories are right then the effect should be twice as great.
    If not twice as great the theories are wrong.

    How to get around this conundrum?
    The fact is that both theories are right and the various properties that we see are manifestations of the process, not causes.

    Pressure has a direct relevance to temperature, undeniable.
    GHG theory has a direct relevance to temperature, undeniable.
    But they fit together, they work together and you cannot use one to exclude the other.
    Unless you are trying to use either of them as causation when they are, whats that lovely word about ECS , an emergent property or outcome of the processes.

    Instead of trying to fight GHG or NZ the concepts of atmospheric and surface composition and pressure and changes ensuant need to be merged in the maths as they are in real life.

    A comment like
    ” A natural open system such as a planet will always find a way to radiate heat to Space! The notion that “greenhouse gases” are essential to cool a planet is simply unfounded.”
    is not helpful.
    While not essential, the presence of GHG changes the radiative dynamics.
    Hence the temperature of different layers of the atmosphere.
    Hence the pressure in the atmosphere at that level.
    Leading to an observation that the pressure is higher in that system without taking into account that it is that particular composition that has to have that particular pressure.

  99. angech says:

    “Because Earth is the only planet in the Solar System to have liquid water on the surface and vapor clouds in the sky, many think that Earth’s climate is somehow special and controlled by unique and different drivers…. However, this is not the case!”

    Arguing that the unique and different drivers that exist on all planets can be reduced to a simple pressure temperature theory is not right.
    The pressure and temperature are linked in many ways.
    That is why the laws work the way that they do. But the laws also take into account the effects of the different compositions. They have to.
    You spell it out yourself by defining some of those compositions [above].
    Albedo is important.
    Albedo is usually pretty constant for most solid materials.
    But it varies enormously with different gas mixes.
    Take a planet like Jupiter. Give it two fixed circulating gases a bit like those mood lamps with the blobs of liquid rising or falling due to their energy gain when they sink to the heater at the bottom.
    Make one black and the other white. Yju have a white world half the time and a black world half the time.
    What is the surface temperature?
    Definitely not stable or predictable by a simple pressure model [note the pressures would of course change with the albedo changes so your theory would work but give different results on a timing basis].
    Now clouds are not unique but they do a form of what I have just described. Variable timing of albedo, unpredictable. with different average surfaces temperatures all the time.

    Incorporate or sink.

  100. tallbloke says:

    Steve Richards: Rog, you know that a hot object cools.

    Only if the surroundings are cooler than the gas or the hot gas expands adiabatically.

  101. oldmanK says:

    Stefan-Boltzmann law states ( — and I thought I was done with thermo ) —– per ‘Unit surface area’.

    So in the above matter planet orientation is really a big issue. The heat source is a point source, but the receiving in and radiating out surfaces depend:
    1. planet orientation (zero obliquity to 90deg[stall])
    2. daily rotation speed (eg: revs per day)
    3. orbit time

    In an earlier thread, Ned has a graph in video comparing latitudinal temperatures for the Eocene and today’s. Ned attributes that to possible change in ‘air mass’, I would bet that it was change in orientation/obliquity. (And this point can be tested for dates in the Holocene, between 5200bce and 2000bce, if we can get the data).

  102. Ned Nikolov says:

    Angech,

    You have to watch our videos and carefully read our papers several more times, because your statement

    Pressure has a direct relevance to temperature, undeniable.
    GHG theory has a direct relevance to temperature, undeniable.
    But they fit together, they work together and you cannot use one to exclude the other.

    is completely wrong! This fact is clearly shown by the data and our newly discovered P-T relationship. The Atmospheric Thermal Effect is 100% explained by pressure, and there is no room left for any effects of so-called “greenhouse gases”. Furthermore, the most important conclusion from our research is that atmospheric long-wave radiation is an effect (i.e. a byproduct) of atmospheric temperature and as such it has no impact on global surface temperature. In other words, the IR LW radiation is a consequence of the operation of the climate system, not a driver of climate! Those, who do not grasp this simple fact, understand nothing about our concept… I’m astonished at how difficult it is for some people to realize that the “Greenhouse” theory is all upside down and backward regarding physical reality. All main tenets of the “greenhouse” theory are fundamentally wrong, and that fact is clearly demonstrated in our videos and papers!

    I don’t know how to say it more clearly than that!!

  103. Ned Nikolov says:

    Well, if summers during at Last Glacial Maximum ware warmer by several degrees Celsius in the high Northern latitudes than today, how can we explain the presence of huge continental ice sheets in both Europe/Asia and North America during that period? Something is not right with the conclusions reached in this paper:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S104061822030656X

  104. Ned Nikolov says:

    oldmanK,

    What you said (on September 15, 2021 at 2:49 pm) is incorrect! Obliquity cannot even begin to explain, why the global temperature during the Eocene was 15-17 C higher than today. Also, our analysis of planetary temperatures showed that one does not need to consider obliquity in order to accurately predict variations of global surface temperatures across a broad range of rocky planets & moons in the solar system. This fact tells you that obliquity has NO effect on the annual average global temperature of a planet!

    Furthermore, we showed conclusively that the only parameter, which can accurately explain the observed polar amplifications throughout the geological record are changes in total atmospheric mass and surface pressure. Watch this video carefully:

  105. oldmanK says:

    Something is not right with a lot of issues.
    I have been following Alaska and Siberia in times when it should have been ice-bound according to ‘dogma’. Apparently there were animals there during those periods; maybe intermittently, but there they were because of dated finds.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/05/world/frozen-cave-lion-cubs-siberia-scn/index.html 28,000 and 43,448yrs.
    https://mostlymammoths.wordpress.com/2015/01/18/exciting-new-info-about-mastodons-and-humans-yukon-paleontology-part-1/ 50,000 yrs

    (But note that my interest there was their tragic demise — cataclysmic).

  106. Ed Fox says:

    angech on September 15, 2021 at 2:20 am
    A few comments, may spread them out.

    First I am surprised and alarmed at Ned’s dismissal of Eds point about the rotation speed affecting the average temperature of the planet.
    =======!
    I share your concerns. Ned did not refute the exceedingly simple mathematics of temperature vs rotation. Dismissal does not boost confidence in NZ.

  107. Ned Nikolov says:

    The effect of rotation speed on surface temperature of airless bodies is discussed at length in a special section of our 2014 paper. Please read it first before engaging in theoretical discussions that are not supported by actual data:

    https://springerplus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-1801-3-723

    The claim that spin rate affects the global temperature of spherical bodies is a myth born from incomplete math models, and not something observed in the real world.

  108. Nelson says:

    Ned, I misspoke. I shouldn’t have used density. My point was that the molar form of the ideal gas laws provides a formula for temperature that seems to work everywhere. Pressure is just gravity working on molecules in the atmosphere.. If you increase the molecular weight of a volume of air, the pressure increases so does the temperature. For any planet that has an atmosphere, you can use the molar form of the ideal gas law to solve for temperate. My point is, aren’t you just reformulating what we know from the ideal gas law. What I have always found interesting is the inconsistency of claiming extreme temperature increase from doubling CO2 with the ideal gas law. If you add the molecular weight of an additional 400 ppm of CO2, you don’t get much of any change in temperature according to the molar form of the ideal gas law.

  109. Ed Fox says:

    The effective heat storage fraction η e is the only variable in Eq. (16) that might potentially be affected by a change in planet’s spin rate.
    https://springerplus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-1801-3-723
    ======!!
    A theory cannot prove itself.

    Your Fig 5 of equatorial lunar temps clearly shows that changing the rotation rate to 1 earth day would significantly alter min & max temps. All that is required is to cut out the middle 27 days of Fig 5 to approximate what will happen.

    This clearly shows that the temp variance will change which will change the temp deviation from abs zero which will change total outgoing actual radiation, which must change temps to maintain thermodynamic balance.

  110. Ed Fox says:

    Clarification. Fig 5. A 1 day long lunar day would be 2 slices of 1/2 day each centered on sunrise and sunset.

    Your fig 5 has a lunar day marked as 24 hours with sunrise and sunset around 18 and 6 hrs. Confusing. Why?

  111. Ed Fox says:

    Nighttime lunar temps are perhaps the most reliable indication that rotation will affect variance. As can be seen, even after 2 earth weeks nighttime temps are still dropping.

    This means that for sure a moon that rotates once an earth day, month or year is going to have different min temps.

    Also, because we are seeing a buffering effect more than 2 earth weeks in length a similar effect should also influence max temps on the day side depending on rotation rate.

    The curve of nighttime temps clearly is not linear. It is tending to level. Thus the effect of rotation should be more pronounced for a rotation change from 30 days to 1 day than from 30 years to 1 year in earth std units.

  112. Ned Nikolov says:

    To Ed Fox:

    What we describe in our 2014 paper regarding controls of the night-time temperature on the Moon is real physics. What you describe about rotation speed changing the average temperature of a planetary body is a “theory” and a fictional one at best… If the rotation speed was an important factor determining a planet’s global temperature, our empirical P-T model based on NASA data would not have the accuracy that it does without accounting for differences in rotation speed between planetary bodies. Six objects spanning a wide range of spin rates line up on a single curve with no need for a rotation parameter in the equation… What does this imply? Think about it!

  113. Ned Nikolov says:

    Nelson,

    No, one cannot use the molar form of the Ideal Gas Law to predict planetary temperatures, because you have one equation (PV = n R T) with 2 unknowns in it (V and T). That’s because atmospheric volume physically depends on pressure and temperature (remember that the atmosphere is an isobaric system at the surface!). Because of this, the relationship between pressure and temperature in the atmosphere (both at the surface and aloft) is non-linear. The empirical relationship between Ts/Tna and P, which we extracted from NASA planetary data, is not directly derivable from the Gas Law, although this curve has roots in gas thermodynamics that is governed by the Gas Law… Therefore, our Ts/Tna – P curve is not a reformulation of the Gas Law, but a new macrolevel relationship with the strength of planetary-level physical law.

  114. konradwp1 says:

    To Rog and Nic, I don’t have the time to respond fully to your criticisms right now. My father has just died from the second AZ shot. Not a good time.

    However Roger, I want you to look back to debates I had on this site with an older guy. Joe? Had a “dear in the headlights” as his gravitar? Remember him Roger?

    He tried to teach me something. He succeeded. But by the time I’d finally understood the lesson, he was dead.

    I had all my new-fangled ways of determining the true (not apparent) LWIR emissivity of water. Including quantum casscade lasers. He was decades older and laughing at me.

    He was right. I finally got it, and I never got to show him that I understood his teaching.

    Can you get it Roger? No empirical experiments or measurements are required. (I did them, crazy experiments with LWIR reflection from water under covers cooled to -50C). He was laughing at me. Look back in the comments. And he was right to laugh. He seriously was.

    It was a 3D geometry problem. All you needed to know was that the depth of LWIR emission and absorption for liquid water was greater than 0.000mm.

    Roger, it doesn’t matter what depth (D) LWIR is emitted from water. If D>0, then true LWIR emissivity must be 0.7 or below. It’s a 3D geometry problem. My empirical experiments were not required.

    Can’t work out that geometry problem? Then what hope of working out solar thermal gain in 71% of our planet’s surface? No, just setting 71% of the surface to 0.67 emissivity and banging at the instantaneous radiative balance equations won’t work …

    What will?

    Now if the true LWIR emissivity of 71% of this planet’s

  115. Ed Fox says:

    What you describe about rotation speed changing the average temperature of a planetary body is a “theory” and a fictional one at best…
    ======
    disagree. What I’m saying is confirmed by your own Figure 5 from your 2014 paper. To demonstrate this I have analyzed your fig 5 and posted the results here:

    https://ibb.co/KNYWXW6

    What I did was:
    1. make Fig 5 transparent.
    2. overlay a mirror image.
    3. overlay a cos curve from 00:00 to 06:00 (pink line) corresponding to zenith to sunset.

    From this it is clear that:
    1. For at least 2 weeks after sunset the lunar surface cools. This means that if the lunar rotation rate speeds up, the nighttime minimum temp will be warmer than current temps and if rotation speeds ip, the nighttime minimum temp will be cooler than current temps.

    This is contrary to what you have predicted, from your own data.

    2. The observed daytime temps from zenith to sunset track outside of the cos function. This makes no sense if there is low inertia in the surface temps.

    Look at Fig 5 at 04:00. The black curve is well above 50% of the daytime range which is not consistent with the angle of incidence of the solar radiation (cos 60 = 1/2). Thus, the daytime temp in Fig 5 from 00:00 to 06:00 must have heat/energy coming from some source other than the direct sunlight.

  116. Ed Fox says:

    correction:
    From this it is clear that:
    1. For at least 2 weeks after sunset the lunar surface cools. This means that if the lunar rotation rate speeds up, the nighttime minimum temp will be warmer than current temps and if rotation SLOWS DOWN, the nighttime minimum temp will be cooler than current temps.

  117. Ed Fox says:

    correction:
    change: “rotation speeds ip,”
    to: ” rotation slows down,”

  118. Ed Fox says:

    ps: the marks/ticks on the cos curve have no meaning. I was simply too lazy to bother to erase them. The cos curve X axis was filled such that 0 degrees corresponds to 00:00 and 90 degrees corresponds to 06:00. The Y axis was fitted such that 1 corresponds to temp at 00:00 and 0 corresponds to temps at 06:00. The mark 1 eyeball was used to guide the fit.

  119. Ed Fox says:

    Six objects spanning a wide range of spin rates line up on a single curve with no need for a rotation parameter in the equation… What does this imply?
    =============
    Temperature calculation is not associative. Some objects are likely calculated as the average temperature of radiation and some are likely calculated as temperature of average radiation. This violates the associate rule. A correction for spin rate is required for temperature of average radiation

    ============
    In my discussion of Fig 5, point 2.

    It appears that you have explained the daytime temps as lying outside the cos function due to changing albedo with angle of incidence. Thus the temps at sunset are already much lower than angle of incidence would explain and 90 degrees on cos curve would need to be moved to much higher temp. It is possible I guess but is would seem to me that the surface of the moon is too rough and black to have 6x greater albedo at local sunrise/sunset than local noon. Similar to what happens with water. Otherwise I would expect the brightness of the moon towards the terminator to be readily apparent from earth.

  120. oldmanK says:

    In discussing spin it is apparent that there is the assumption that planet axial tilt is zero. Tilt is another factor to consider.

    Contrary to scientific belief there is evidence of tilt change between 5200bce and 2000bce. Tilt was about 14.5deg at 5200bce, changed to ~18 at 4375bce, back to about 14.5 at 3550bce and to ~25 at 2345bce. The measurable evidence is there, the dating came later from multiple proxies.

    The first supporting evidence came from polar and equatorial O2 isotope in ice cores, in the opposing trends of polar and equatorial. But also as regards this thread subject, the overall rising and falling temp trends globally with every tilt change. For the period in question low tilt lead to a rising temp trend, higher tilt to falling trend.
    See https://melitamegalithic.wordpress.com/2019/03/15/searching-evidence-update-2/

    Most of this time-span is recorded history, both in legend (and myths based in reality) and written. I do not think atmospheric mass change was a cause – it would have been somehow recorded (noticeable).

  121. angech says:

    Ned Nikolov says:

    “Pressure has a direct relevance to temperature, undeniable.
    GHG theory has a direct relevance to temperature, undeniable.
    But they fit together, they work together and you cannot use one to exclude the other.”

    is completely wrong! This fact is clearly shown by the data and our newly discovered P-T relationship. The Atmospheric Thermal Effect is 100% explained by pressure, and there is no room left for any effects of so-called “greenhouse gases”.

    My comments on your conclusion The Atmospheric Thermal Effect is 100% explained by pressure,was more to the fact that both pressure and it’s relationship to temperature and radiative theory and back radiation are not exclusive.

    Both fit the observed states well as they should.
    When you then comment
    ” the most important conclusion from our research is that atmospheric long-wave radiation is an effect (i.e. a byproduct) of atmospheric temperature and as such it has no impact on global surface temperature.”
    you miss the boat.
    The radiation, while a product of atmospheric temperature, does affect the final temperature reached.
    Which is does through a combination of the effects of the mixture of GHG and non GHG which then have to operate at the pressures commensurate with that temperature.
    If you deny or exclude the role of the GHG in this process, or your theory does not take it into account then it is weakened.

    “The IR LW radiation is not a driver of climate!”
    It is nonetheless fundamental to how things work.

    ” All main tenets of the “greenhouse” theory are fundamentally wrong, and that fact is clearly demonstrated in our videos and papers!”

    Stating that does not exclude the facts. GHG theory has many tenets that are both correct and necessary.
    As I said neither theory has to invalidate the other.
    If you can find a way to accept this and incorporate it properly into your theory your contributions will be recognized.
    Pressure has a very important relationship with temperature but not the sole relationship.

  122. angech says:

    Ned Nikolov says: September 15, 2021 at 9:41 pm

    “the effect of rotation speed on surface temperature of airless bodies is discussed at length in a special section of our 2014 paper. Please read it first before engaging in theoretical discussions that are not supported by actual data:
    https://springerplus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-1801-3-723
    The claim that spin rate affects the global temperature of spherical bodies is a myth born from incomplete math models, and not something observed in the real world.”

    The claim that spin rate affects the global temperature of spherical bodies is a myth.
    Yes.
    Because you are misstating the concept.

    The claim is that spin rate affects the global temperature of externally heated spherical bodies heated by a point source such as the sun.

    The mathematical models are not incomplete and you use them.

    Energy in equals energy out.
    Spin has no effect on energy in or out.
    Average temperature is a much more difficult concept and is affected in any real world spherical object heated by an external source like a sun.
    Increasing the spin does not make a planet hotter than the energy in, energy out allows.
    A theoretical perfect black body has the amazing ability to radiate instantly from all sides the energy received on one side only. This does not happen in real life.
    A planet spinning near the speed of light approaches a perfect black body because the average radiation received on all sides is now nearly equal. This also does not happen in real life.
    A third hypothetical would be a light source all the way around the body. Not going to happen.

    Hence, SB a non spinning planet and a very slowly spinning planet or one in synchronous orbit has a very hot area at double the temperature for 16 times the energy added to all the areas with not temperature increase and a low average temperature.
    The faster it spins the more evenly spread the radiation and the more the average temperature approaches the ideal temperature for the energy input.

    Don’t claim the maths or the maths models are incomplete.
    You use them and know them.
    You may dismiss the concept if it does not suit your theory but you cannot diss the maths.

  123. angech says:

    Thank you for your reference
    Despite
    ” We showed that the actual mean surface temperature of the Moon (197.3 K) is about 73 K cooler than the Moon’s effective radiating temperature Te ≈ 270 K computed from Eq. (3) using the same albedo. This large discrepancy is due to the fact that Eq. (3) essentially yields a disk-average temperature instead of a spherical temperature mean.”
    You argue that the Te is only a theoretical construct yet it has the ability to be transformed by your equations into a more representative form of spherical planets, airless or not, average temperatures.

    I read your take on rotation and dismissal with dismay.
    “Specifically, it has been suggested that a higher ω would cause a planet’s Tna to approach Te (e.g. Smith 2008).”
    You stated above that it was a myth but here were papers on it in your own paper.

    You went off on a tangent about
    “The effective heat storage fraction η e is the only variable in Eq. (16) that might potentially be affected by a change in planet’s spin rate.”

    After breading your valuable insights into
    Hölder’s inequality and its implications for planetary flux-temperature relationships
    ie, the area-weighted average temperature of a spherical surface is always lower than the temperature calculated from the area-weighted average long-wave radiation emitted by the surface in proportion to T(μ)4

    I realized that what you were describing was just the true non rotating average global heat of any spherical body illuminated by a heat source.
    With the moon having a slow rotation it does not change much but as things speed up the average rises a little towards your TE theoretical construct.

    A lot more respect for your work after reading this.
    However you had better have another look at what the true effect of rotational speed on Holders inequality means.
    Angular velocity changes do not cause emission energy changes but they provide another layer of complexity into your model as they do exist by your own maths.

  124. “Rog, you know that a hot object cools.

    Only if the surroundings are cooler than the gas or the hot gas expands adiabatically.”

    You’ve got it Rog, the hot object radiates to the level of CBR of about 3K.

  125. Ned Nikolov says:

    angech,

    You have misinterpreted important aspects of our 2014 paper. Please read it again and pay attention to the section about the effect of spin rate on the average temperature and the context in which the paper by Smith (2008) is quoted. Then read our 2017 paper and think, why the Ts/Tna – P relationship is so precise across planetary bodies having very different rotation speeds?

  126. Ned Nikolov says:

    I’m not sure how the discussion in this blog drifted to a marginal issue such as the effect of rotation speed on the global temperature, when the main topic was the evidence for insolvency of the radiative “greenhouse” theory discussed in the above video??

  127. Ed Fox says:

    I’m not sure how the discussion
    =======
    Because theory and observation (fig 5 2014 paper nightine temps) contradict NZ central claim that pressure alone determines temp.

    Fig 5 of the 2014 paper clearly shows that avg nighttime temps will rise if the moon rotates faster without any change in pressure. It is so obvious looking at the graph as to be irrefutable.

    The problem is that one rather glaring problem hurts the rest of your work because it begs the question.

  128. Ed Fox says:

    have another look at what the true effect of rotational speed on Holders inequality means.
    ==========
    Agreed

    A related problem is the temperature difference between day and night, equator and poles. The temperature variance.

    That is how we got on to spin rate. A simple example of non atmospheric temperature variance.

    My original point was that temperature variance has an effect on mean temperature because of the non linearity of SB law.

    I used an airless moon as an example to remove the confounding factors.

  129. Ed Fox says:

    For the period in question low tilt lead to a rising temp trend, higher tilt to falling trend.
    =========
    A change in axial tilt changes temperature variance between the seasons.

    If you reduce tilt this reduces variance which reduces outgoing radiation as previously demonstrated. Average temp will rise to restore outgoing radiation

    Thus observation confirms my previous point about variance.

  130. tom0mason says:

    Phil Salmon, and all interested parties,

    Einstein’s 1917 paper is also available (for viewing) at
    https://einsteinpapers.press.princeton.edu/vol6-trans/232

  131. angech says:

    Ned Nikolov says:
    I’m not sure how the discussion in this blog drifted to a marginal issue such as the effect of rotation speed on the global temperature, when the main topic was the evidence for insolvency of the radiative “greenhouse” theory discussed in the above video??

    Eds comments and I piled on, sorry.

    Re your work on the lower planet temperature it is still true that the energy in equals the energy out and all of the theories have to satisfy this despite the different amounts of Thermal energy conjectured.

    Not sure how the GHG equations have to change if the different temperature constraints are factored in.
    We do have the measured surface temps and the incoming radiation and albedo measurable

  132. Phil Salmon, I already mentioned something like that about Wien’s displacement Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wien%27s_displacement_law . Also, look at this about Wien https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Wien. He found the theory before Planck and he won a Nobel prize in Physics in 1911 before Einstein’s 1917 paper. There are some on this site who do not understand thermodynamics. The so-called ideal gas law is actually the 5th postulate in Chemical Engineering Thermodynamics which states “The macroscopic properties of homogeneous PVT systems at internal equilibrium can be expressed as functions of temperature, pressure and composition only”
    Note the 4th Postulate (2nd law of Thermodynamics) is stated as “The entropy change of any system and its surroundings ,considered together, resulting from any real process is positive, approaching zero when the process approaches reversibility.”
    The Greenhouse theory fails both these 4th and 5th postulates of Thermodynamics.
    Also note Dimensional Analysis is part of Chemical Engineering which uses many dimensionless numbers such as the Schmidt number (which Dr Gavan Schmidt of NASA Giss admitted he did not know its formation and use). Most engineers have at least heard of the Mach and Reynolds numbers.
    I am happy with the NZ findings.

  133. oldmanK says:

    Ned, likely I’m the one to blame for ‘I’m not sure how the discussion in this blog drifted to a marginal issue—-‘.

    In the case of the Earth rotational speed is not so much of an issue (from my perspective), since it is not likely to change much. But the effect of tilt on rotational speed is another matter. CO2 may be just a paper ‘dragon king’ (but that I leave to others to prove), but tilt change is a very real one — and still scientifically invisible.

    NZ in an earlier video, provided a graph comparing latitudinal temp change for today and for the Eocene. Is the difference a ‘Mass change’ or a ’tilt change’? Evidence for the second option exists, and that is far worse than CO2.

  134. Ed Fox says:

    There is a famous painting of a pipe that has the title “this is not a pipe”.

    If you understand the logic behind this painting you will understand the problem with average temperature. It is a statistical construct of the mind that does not conserve energy. Thus you cannot use it on the left side of any equation. A curve fit violates this rule.

  135. Ed Fox says:

    Take a snapshot of 2 one-tonne cubes of water, radiating 1000 watts/meter squared in total at that moment in time.

    Each cube is at a different temperature, but within each cube the water temperature is uniform.

    What is the average temperature of the water?

  136. Ed Fox says:

    What is the average temperature of the water?
    =======!!
    The answer is that there are an infinite number of different average temperatures that yield the exact same outgoing radiation.

    The reason is because average is linear and radiation is 4th power.

    However, if we were to say that the temperature variance was for example 100C then the solution for average is unique. If the variance is 25C then a different average temp satisfies the constraints.

    The simple fact is that climate science does not know the value for temperature variance and they have no theory to predict it.

    Instead climate science assumes that natural variability is low and thus variance is due to human activity. Variance is the so called “fingerprint” of human caused climate change.

    Average temperature is interesting, but even if average temperature was to remain unchanged, variance is being used as evidence that humans are changing the climate.

    My assumption was that we were undertaking a peer review of NZ. My critique of NZ is that using the very same math as used in NZ, it is trivial to show that there is no unique solution for average temperature.

    Further, fig 5 of NZ 2014 paper confirms this, showing that lunar average nighttime temperatures are not constant, even though pressure and radiation are.

    Fig 5 clearly shows that an increase in variance due to spin rate will lower the average nighttime temperature.

    There are many other sources of variance besides spin rate. I simply used that as an example to make the problem obvious.

    Orbital parameters affect variability as does atmospheric composition, surface composition and weather, among the most obvious.

    Others have also pointed out reasons why variance affects average temperature.

    My conclusion is that NZ is incomplete. It predicts an average temperature where a unique solution for average temperature does not exists. The Holder inequality confirms this.

    As such, if NZ is correct, then there must be a unique variance that can be predicted from NZ to satisfy the unique average temperature.

    As such, NZ could provide the answer that has so far evaded climate science. What is the natural variability of the climate system.

    Unfortunately NZ have not approached this criticism constructively. Claiming that the very same math used in NZ is invalid because it contradicts NZ..

    This is unfortunate because there is a much larger question than average temperature to be answered. The question of natural variability.

    Should in fact NZ provide a unique solution for average temperature, then this means you should be able to apply NZ to derive a unique solution for natural variability. The holy grail of climate science.

    I hope my point is clear. Climate science in the first IPCC report recognized that there is no unique solution for average temperature. We see that in the spaghetti graphs. The climate models provide projections not predictions.

    Thus, if NZ does provide a uniques solution for temperature, then it must also be able to provide a unique solution for variance and thereby answer the biggest question in climate science. What is the magnitude of natural variability.

  137. Ed Fox says:

    Support, criticism, suggestions for improvement are all welcome in our open peer review here at the Talkshop.
    ======≠
    The above paragraph from the introduction to NZ is why I introduced the question of temperature variance.

    Far from being a minor issue, average temperature is non physical. It is a statistical construct.

    Statistically, the average person has 1 testicle. Without knowing the variance the average can be worse than meaningless. It can be misleading.

  138. bonbon says:

    NZ, this blog post is in a tail-spin, as skydivers well know happened when Icarus flew too close to the radiative Sun. Thanks for taking climate off-world!

    For variability, thanks to Svensmark, Shaviv, for taking climate off-Solar System!

  139. Nick Hoss says:

    Thank you Ned and Roger
    This is quite a revelation for me.
    As an engineer for 40 years I’ve lived through and watched this climate theory turn into a religion which no one is allowed to question, it just doesn’t appear to be debatable at higher levels than this.
    As a student the basic fundamental gas laws were on page 1 of the text book. T for any gas is directly proportional to P..
    I haven’t read the IPCC reports and wasn’t aware of the claim that the 30+ deg difference that the earths atmosphere adds is all due to the Greenhouse effect.. A basic back of a fag packet calculation shows the majority of this is due to atmospheric pressure.
    Ned’s expansion of the basic gas laws and addition of Solar input plus confirmation of their accuracy with data from other planets and moons is exceptional.
    To restore some of my faith in the current scientific establishment I hope to see the day when work such as Ned’s is openly and fully discussed at the level it deserves. As dissenting views on the subject don’t appear to be allowed even though the results show they’re indisputable I imagine it may be some time yet. Good luck Ned

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