Solar Cycle 25 Update

Posted: January 12, 2022 by oldbrew in Cycles, data, solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

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It’s still early in the cycle so let’s see what the next 1-2 years bring.

Spaceweather.com

Jan. 10, 2022: Solar Cycle 25 is heating up. New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outrunning the official forecast. You are here:

Actual sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in more than 5 years.

The “official forecast” comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). Using a variety of leading indicators, the Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.

Sky watchers have already noticed the change. “We are definitely seeing the effects on the ground in the Arctic!” reports Chad Blakley of the Swedish tour guide…

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Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    ‘Official’ forecast for SC 25 here…
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update

    Wikipedia offers an unofficial view: ‘The following table is instead divided into (unofficial) cycles starting and ending with a maximum, to give a better feel for the number of spotless days associated with each minimum’.

    Solar cycle 24-25 “Start” (Maximum): 2014-04
    Spotless days: 848 (Jan 11 2022)
    [Same point last cycle: 815]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

    The full magnetic cycle of two polarity reversals is two solar cycles.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Solar_dynamo

  2. tallbloke says:

    Solar cycles have come in lots of different shapes and sizes. It sure is fun speculating about them though. 🙂

  3. bobweber says:

    SC25 has been consistently near the -σ line (one standard deviation below average), above SC24:

  4. stpaulchuck says:

    ———–
    “Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” – Richard Feynman

  5. Spirit of the Wind says:

    Maunder Minimum (1645–1715) Dalton Minimum (1797–1827).
    Maunder 50 years long
    Pause Maunder to Dalton 82 years
    Dalton 30 years long?

    Dalton ended 1827 now 2022 195 years pause?
    How long’s the pause, were they wrong and the pause was just a slight blip?
    Dalton and Maunder were actually one mimimum 162 years long?
    What is the Suns variability, most observed stars are variable stars, is it cyclical is that cycle consistent?
    Hasn’t been observed for long enough, maybe we’re long overdue another?

  6. oldbrew says:

    Spirit of the Wind says: ‘What is the Sun’s variability?’
    – – –
    The sun’s clock: New calculations support and expand planetary hypothesis
    Posted: June 17, 2021

    Rosette-shaped movement of the sun can produce a 193-year cycle
    . . .
    Mathematically, the 193 years arise as what is known as a beat period between the 19.86-year cycle and the twofold Schwabe cycle, also called the Hale cycle.

    The sun’s clock: New calculations support and expand planetary hypothesis

  7. jeremyp99 says:

    https://www.mpg.de/research/sun-activity-high

    2004

    The Sun is more active now than over the last 8000 years
    An international team of scientists has reconstructed the Sun’s activity over the last 11 millennia and forecasts decreased activity within a few decades

    OCTOBER 28, 2004
    The activity of the Sun over the last 11,400 years, i.e., back to the end of the last ice age on Earth, has now for the first time been reconstructed quantitatively by an international group of researchers led by Sami K. Solanki from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany). The scientists have analyzed the radioactive isotopes in trees that lived thousands of years ago. As the scientists from Germany, Finland, and Switzerland report in the current issue of the science journal “Nature” from October 28, one needs to go back over 8,000 years in order to find a time when the Sun was, on average, as active as in the last 60 years. Based on a statistical study of earlier periods of increased solar activity, the researchers predict that the current level of high solar activity will probably continue only for a few more decades.

  8. craigm350 says:

    From solen.info/solar

    Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (updated January 1, 2022)

    Comparison of cycles 21-25 (updated January 1, 2022)

    So ~2 years in it’s an increase on SC24 but below all they other cycles listed including the centennial scale ones.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Craig350; Yes, it’ll be another year before we see whether SC25 is pulling ahead of SC24 or not. Maddening, isn’t it?

  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    watching paint dry
    boring
    why I decided years ago not to look at solar again until 2037 (probably dead by then so probably never again)

  11. jeremyp99 says:

    Real time test of natural variability versus CO2. At 70, I hope and intend to live long enough to see a resolution!

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    200cc PC op? (200 = 378-178)

    Talk C more on human nature:
    from a STRICT mean, CO2 causes EVERY deviation no matter weather minor or major.

  13. […] Solar Cycle 25 Update […]

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