Simulations explain Greenland’s slower summer warming, say researchers

Posted: April 7, 2022 by oldbrew in ENSO, modelling, Natural Variation, research, Temperature, weather
Tags: ,

Kangerlussuaq Fjord, Greenland [image credit:]

‘Temperatures and rates of ice sheet melting both peaked in 2012’ – interesting quote from the report. The researchers assume that natural factors are merely impeding the inevitable warming they expect from carbon dioxide emission increases, but assumptions can be risky.
– – –
A puzzling, decade-long slowdown in summer warming across Greenland has been explained by researchers at Hokkaido University in Japan, says

Their observational analysis and computer simulations revealed that changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean, thousands of miles to the south, trigger cooler summer temperatures across Greenland.

The results, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, will help improve future predictions of Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice melting in coming decades.

“The Greenland ice sheet is melting in the long run due to global warming associated with greenhouse gas emissions, but the pace of that melting has slowed in the last decade,” says Hokkaido University environmental Earth scientist, Shinji Matsumura. “That slowing was a mystery until our research showed it is connected to changes to the El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific.”

El Niño is a natural, cyclic phenomenon that raises the water temperature in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Scientists know that such large-scale changes alter atmospheric conditions elsewhere due to their association with powerful waves of air pressure called teleconnections.

But climate experts struggled to see how the Pacific El Niño could cool Greenland in the summer, because easterly summer winds in the tropics usually prevent such teleconnections from forming.

In the new study, the team accounted for recent changes in the Pacific El Niño event, which pushed the warmer sea temperatures further north than usual. This took them beyond the influence of the easterly wind and allowed atmospheric teleconnections that stretch up to Greenland to form.

In turn, these teleconnections disrupt the atmospheric conditions and thus the weather around Greenland in the summertime. Specifically, they drive more intense cyclones, which move colder air over the land.

This is enough, the new study shows, to explain the lower-than-expected temperatures and ice melting in the region. Temperatures and rates of ice sheet melting both peaked in 2012.

Full article here.

  1. Phoenix44 says:

    Perhaps, but does that model also correctly model the rest of the globe?

    Most of these “simulations” solve one puzzle but oddly fail to see what happens elsewhere.

  2. […] Simulations explain Greenland’s slower summer warming, say researchers […]

  3. Gamecock says:

    ‘The researchers assume that natural factors are merely impeding the inevitable warming they expect from carbon dioxide emission increases’

    Observations cannot overturn their beautiful theory.

  4. JB says:

    “observational analysis and computer simulations”

    Resorting to the latter decries deficiency in the former.

  5. Norman Page says:

    This Hokkaido report is playing catch up see
    here is a quote:

    Fig.2 shows that Earth has passed the warm peak of the current Milankovitch interglacial and has been generally cooling for the last 3,300 years. The millennial cycle peaks are apparent at about 10,000, 9,000, 8,000, 7,000, 2,000, and 1,000 years before now.
    Climate, and in particular precipitation, is dominated during the Holocene mainly by the Obliquity modulated by the Precession. J. H. C. Bosmans et al 2015 (21)”Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate” shows that obliquity induced changes in the summer cross-equatorial insolation gradient explain obliquity signals in low latitude paleo climate records more usefully than the classical 65 degree north insolation curve alone. Yi Liu et al 2015 (22) in “Obliquity pacing of the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone over the last 282,000 years ” ” … shows that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. The obliquity forcing could be primarily delivered by a cross-hemispherical thermal/pressure contrast, resulting from the asymmetric continental configuration between Asia and Australia in a coupled East Asian–Australian circulation system. “

  6. oldbrew says:

    They keep telling us what should be happening, then it doesn’t.

    “We expect that global warming and ice sheet melting in Greenland and the rest of the Arctic will accelerate even further in the future due to the effects of anthropogenic warming,” Matsumura says.
    – – –
    Accelerate ‘even further’ than a slowdown in the last ten years? This is more like gibberish than research.

  7. Graeme No.3 says:

    But oldbrew, we know from Antarctic climate “scientists” that snow and ice will melt if the temperatures get as high as minus 10℃ or even minus 12℃. And it was from a computer model.
    Model. model, on the wall
    Who’s got the wackiest model of all?

  8. Chaswarnertoo says:

    What a pile of bleep. Glaciation will return long before Greenland melts.

  9. Bloke down the pub says:

    Funny how natural cycles never seem to be strong enough to explain global warming, but are always strong enough to explain the lack of it.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Bloke – yes, this is exactly the problem warmists can’t get their heads around. Dogma overrides logic.

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