Planetary – solar – climate connection found

Posted: November 29, 2009 by tallbloke in climate, solar system dynamics
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

This graph shows the relationship between the motion of the planets, the length of Earth’s day, and the changes in global temperature.

SSB z, LOD, Temperature

Graph of the SSB-solar equatorial distance in the z axis against changes in length of day and global temperature.

Click graph for larger image

The Red curve shows HADcruV3 global temperature. I’ve detrended this to something more reasonable than the treasonable nonsense Phil Jones has left us with.

The Green Curve is the distance between the solar system’s centre of mass and the solar equatorial plane in the vertical ‘z’ axis. This distance is determined by the changing disposition of the planets in the solar system over time. Extra info added: The data is smoothed over 24 years (Two Jupiter orbits) and retarded 30 years. This is indicative of the inertia involved in the LOD variation lagging behind the combined effect of the gas giants motion.

The Blue curve shows changes in the Earth’s length of day in milliseconds. This has been detrended. This has been done to separate the effect of planetary motion from longer term cylicities which may affect LOD.

So, the multi-billion dollar question is:

What underlying physical principles connect these three phenomena?
Gravity? Magnetism? Resonant feedback between celestial bodies?

Answers on a postcard, or just post below with your thoughts.

Comments
  1. vjones says:

    That’s a very convincing graph. I’ve know I’ve only scratched the surface on sun-related stuff so far. Makes me want to learn more.

    Glad to see you have your own blog now (me too now). I’ve been a longtime occasional commenter/lurker on WUWT under a different ID and always appreciated your comments.

    Response:
    Thanks for the kind words, I’ll pay a visit to your blog.

  2. msawusch says:

    Hi,
    Looks interesting but could you go into more detail (or provide links) for those of us not versed in astrophysics? What led you to select these series? Why detrend the length of day (although I do understand detrending the HADcruV3 data!)

    Response:
    I started out trying to find a link between the asymmetry in northern and southern solar hemisphere sunspot production, and the positions of the gas giant planets. I’ll do a post on that soon. Then I found out that changes in the earths length of day co-vary with oceanic cycles and reversals in the decadal trends in global temperature.

    An american govt outfit called the NAO had been doing some similar work some time ago while studying fish stocks. I detrended the LOD values to get a better correlation. I’m not too concerned with specific values at the moment, just trying to get a handle on what changes before what in climate affecting terms.

    The solar system barycentre movement relative to the solar equatorial plane takes place around 30 years before the matching changes in length of day. I think this is due to the inertia in the sub-crustal currents of molten material which cause most of the LOD variation.

  3. Roger Carr says:

    Just dropped by to say g’day, Lofty.

    Response:
    Hi Roger, thanks for calling by.

  4. vjones says:

    Just spotted some interesting 3 Dec comments on the ‘Are we quaking yet?’ thread of E.M. Smith’s blog: http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/09/are-we-quaking/#comment-1817 that bring in the effect of moon on weather. Might be worth taking a look.

  5. e.m.smith says:

    Fascinating… So maybe it isn’t the side to side barycenter wobble, but the up and down that does the shake and bake.

    Response:
    Hi E.M. nice of you to drop by. I think it’s a bit of both. Ian Wilson over in australia has found a correlation between barycentric motion in the x,y plane and LOD variation too. This one seems more direct to me though. Ian has a forthcoming paper in press which also demonstrates some very convincing planetary periodicities too, and a tie in with the lunar stuff I allude to in my other post. Ian was good enough to write to me and recognise my independent research.

  6. Roger Carr says:

    Would you complete the “Website” line on Anthony Watts’ blog (Leave a comment) so it’s a bit easier to find you, Lofty?

    Response:
    Roger that, wilco, Roger, roger and out.

  7. Cold Lynx says:

    I put my coin on magnetism.
    Magnetism that make the earth to work as a electric motor. Fast respons not years of delay.
    From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor
    “An asynchronous motor requires slip between the moving magnetic field and a winding set to induce current in the winding set by mutual inductance; the most ubiquitous example being the common AC induction motor which must slip in order to generate torque”

    And You have shown there is a slip.

    And http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/mscp/ene/2009/00000020/F0020001/art00005
    Example of magnetism correlation with temperature. Especially where the magnetical north is located.
    “Analysis of the movement of the Earth’s magnetic poles over the last 105 years demonstrates strong correlations between the position of the north magnetic, and geomagnetic poles, and both northern hemisphere and global temperatures.”

    IF there is a “force” induced by the magnetic field will that direction be depending on where the magnetic poles are located.

    And from:

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V02-4NRCW4V-1&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1124362346&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=3968a12ba16fb8ac355920858d6ee697

    “This paper will demonstrate that the Lorentz force and the force of electric fields, acting on charged particles that exist in atmospheric vortex phenomena, plausibly contribute to the set of physics that will explain tornados and other atmospheric vortex phenomena”

    And:

    http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/EarthMagneticField.htm

    More:

    http://www.maths.gla.ac.uk/~drf/papers/TheGeodynamo.pdf

    THis coupled with with ice age location of magnetic north pole close to iceland make we wonder if the direction and speed of winds in the atmosphere is partly driven by magnetism.

  8. Tenuc says:

    Some very good stuff here which show that changes to total system orbital motion in the galactic inertial time-frame have on effect on climate. Also good to see some hypotheses about physical mechanisms to make this happen.

    I wonder if in trying to understand how the small changes to the solar barycentre, can exert such big effects. we need to consider relativistic effects?

    Interesting article here about GPS needing to be corrected using special relativity to keep the system working:-

    Abstract
    Relativity in the Global Positioning System (Neal Ashby, Living Reviews in Relativity, 2003, revised 2007).

    “The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses accurate, stable atomic clocks in satellites and on the ground to provide world-wide position and time determination. These clocks have gravitational and motional frequency shifts which are so large that, without carefully accounting for numerous relativistic effects, the system would not work.

    This paper discusses the conceptual basis, founded on special and general relativity, for navigation using GPS. Relativistic principles and effects which must be considered include the constancy of the speed of light, the equivalence principle, the Sagnac effect, time dilation, gravitational frequency shifts, and relativity of synchronization.

    Experimental tests of relativity obtained with a GPS receiver aboard the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite will be discussed. Recently frequency jumps arising from satellite orbit adjustments have been identified as relativistic effects. These will be explained and some interesting applications of GPS will be discussed.”

    HTML version of article here:-

    http://relativity.livingreviews.org/Articles/lrr-2003-1/

    I also ponder as to whether these changes are ‘quantised’ rather than happening in a smooth linear fashion and the energy is delivered in a series of short sharp kicks? Something appears to have effected our sun in 2003, which kicked it into ‘quiet’ mode – with some lag, it also seems to have had a dramatic effect on our climate.

    We still have much to learn.

    Response:
    Thanks Tenuc. The barycentre motion isn’t that small really, it can shift up to a couple of solar radii from the centre of he sun quite rapidly, six years or so. You are right to bring up the subject of relativistic effects. A tentative hypothesis on the way that might contribute to a coupling between the solar inertial motion and oscillations internal to the sun was put forward a couple of years ago by Ray Tomes here:

    http://www.bautforum.com/against-mainstream/72665-explaining-planetary-alignments-relationship-sunspot-cycle.html

  9. Tenuc says:

    Interesting paper on this topic posted on a WUWT comment:-

    Variation in Earth Rotation and Global Temp
    Jane Smith. Dept. of Climate Change
    Colorado State University

    http://www.natsci.colostate.edu/jurs/example/index.htm

    Response:
    Good spot. That links through to my latest post on LOD correlation to rate of change of declination of the north magnetic pole too.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Paul Vaughan raised a point on WUWT regarding the smoothing period for the SSBz data.

    The 24 year smooth is twice Jupiter’s orbital period, and around 6/7 of Saturn’s, 2/7 Uranus’ and 1/7 Neptune’s.

    My latest post shows a relationship between north magnetic pole declination and LOD. This is further support for Richard Gross’ theory that sub-crustal currents account for most of the LOD variation I think. Since the inertia involved is huge, as evidenced by the 30 year lag from solar-SSBz motion to LOD response, a 24 year smooth which takes in two full orbits of the main variable, and most of the orbit of the next biggest variable is a reasonable choice in my view. However, I acknowledge that my engineers perspective can be informed by Paul’s statisticians perspective, so I’d appreciate his response to this.

  11. The answer would be D; all of the above.

    The (27.32 day) rotation of the solar magnetic poles (tilted~12.5 degrees) causes a cyclic change in the polarity of the solar wind, felt at the Earth and drives the Lunar declinational movement. Which in turn drives the atmospheric declinational tides, which in effect produce, and control the Rossby wave and jet stream movement patterns.

    The resultant Lunar declinational tidal effects drive most of the short term patterns in global weather changes, the 18.6 Mn year period, drives the decade length patterns of oscillation across the oceans.

    One of the problems with the current weather forecast models, is the reference time frame is very narrow for initial conditions, and the past three days, a lot of times this will introduce presistance of inertia, to the medial flows, for several days, consistent with the actual flows, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides, make their runs across the equator from one poleward culmination to another.

    Then as the tide turns and we have the severe weather bursts at declinational culmination, they get confused, or surprised, as the initial inertial effects reverse for about four days before the sweep to the other pole, that brings back the smooth flows, the models understand.

    So that when the Lunar declination went to Maximum North on December 3rd, turbulence and shear introduced into the atmosphere, from the turning tide, (the models do not know about), surprised them with the usual couple of tornadoes. Now (12-13-09) that we are ~20 degrees South Lunar declination, the models have a full buffer, of five days of linear inertial, from the Moon’s trip South across the equator (12-09-09) and is slowing it’s movement.

    Coming up on the Southern extent culmination, producing a secondary tidal bulge in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing us to the mid point of a 27.32 day declinational cycle (one of the four routine patterns that cycle on an 109.3 day period). This particular one (#1) that started back on Dec 3rd, has incursions of polar air masses that come down from Western Canada, through Montana and the Dakotas, to make up the Northern part of the atmospheric tidal bulge.

    So I would expect to see a large invasion of cold dry air sweep almost all the way to the Gulf coast again, then the produced frontal boundary with the interesting weather, that includes change state intense precipitation. Freezing rain, where the warm over runs cold, and snow where the cold undercuts the more sluggish warm air, still moving North East by inertia alone, severe weather to form in that trailing edge of the warm moist mass, that gets swept from behind from the polar air mass that tries to follow the tidal bulge back to the equator, powering the cyclonic patterns generated by carolis forces, alone as the tide turns, and finishes out as the Moon approaches the equator again.

    Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North lunar declination culmination), then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.

    The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.

    The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
    usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley. Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26 or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.

    Richard Holle

    http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    tallbloke, as an alternative to relying on lags, explore the effect of spatial rotation (of an axis in xyz) on time-integrated cross-correlation. Keep in mind that for any rotation, the dominant periods will still be simply J, S, U, & N, so it’s easy to find correlations with short time series that have similar dominant periods by applying combinations of rotation & time-integration-over-subharmonics without necessarily needing to additionally resort to lagging. Spinable-sequences of color-contour time-integrated cross-correlation plots provide a simplifying means of visualization. [You just spin through them, using the mouse wheel, and pick the best orientation. It's like turning in a circle and picking which direction has the best view.] After you read enough Barkin I suspect your thoughts about “magnetic influences” may be greatly simplified (perhaps a rather substantial understatement), as may be your sense of whether Gross is in the lead on this file (or perhaps not at liberty to disclose publicly all that he knows since there are military applications).

    Response:
    Hi Paul, thanks for your interesting comment. There are definitely several different ways to interpret the data, and so I’m completely open to your recommendations and will follow them up as I have time. I really wish I had your facility and skill with advanced statistical visualization techniques, as I’m sure it would compliment my “give it a whirl and see what drops out” approach to comparing datasets. I had a look at your big page of interim results and found it fascinating. I look forward to a fuller exposition with extra notes to help me understand your findings. Thanks too for you kind words of support and encouragement on WUWT.

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    tallbloke: “I look forward to a fuller exposition with extra notes to help me understand your findings.”

    Won’t happen without $150K funding over 5 years. I’ve suspended my research (effective mid-November 2009). Things were flying along at a good clip, but I ran out of money.

    I’ve provided enough essentials for anyone capable & willing. I find it laughable when people suggest I can continue that type of research in my “spare time”; clearly people have no idea what is involved…

    Response:
    Understood. I struggle too. Maybe the tide will turn when it becomes generally recognised that co2 measurements on the slope of a volcano in Hawaii are not going to solve the climate puzzle.

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    Even if the tide turns, it will be awhile before there is enough current to catch a ride. It’s all about pace, patience, & timing, for the few who are positioned to weather the storm. In the meantime, there are other things to do …and we can always snipe confidently from the sidelines to stay peripherally involved, using what we already know. Your blog is a welcome addition.

  15. jack morrow says:

    Hi Tallbloke,
    Just saw a post about sea levels 80,000 yrs. ago and a person asks a question about that. He implied that the earth’s orbit is becoming more circular and causing less cooling in the winter months and that is the cause of our global warming. WUWT?
    I should have been an astronomer or an astronomist which ever-ha.

  16. [...] For example, some people consider astrophysical factors such as changes of the Sun in its orbit around the Milky Way, some are considering the implications of magnetism, and others changes in the Length of Daylight (LOD). Figure 1 shows simple and tempting comparisons of some of these effects, in this case global temperature, LOD and Solar SSB (Single Side Band). They are correlations, but not necessarily cause and effect. It illustrates how many possible factors are involved in the complexity but also how much is not part of mainstream climate studies and certainly outside of public understanding. Claims that the science is settled border on criminal and certainly illustrate complete lack of understanding of climate science or deliberate ignorance for political ends or both. Figure 1: Apparent correlations of factors with temperature, but not necessarily cause. Source [...]

  17. [...] are a multitude of other astrophysical relationships causing cycles related to climate not considered by the [...]

  18. aWebsurfer says:

    Cause? Imo the discredited and ignored Electric Universe Theory. Currently in a bit of conspiracy state but you could look up the documentary on the web. google Electric Universe and Thunderbolts of the Gods.

  19. aWebsurfer says:

    addendum: in that context, it is interesting (and proves a point) to see that you not mentioned (influence by) electricity as an option at all.

  20. tallbloke says:

    If you look at some of the other posts on my blog, you’ll see that I don’t ignore the electric universe ideas. For example this one:

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/08/05/thunderbolts-opens-the-door-to-the-electric-universe/

    When I posed the question at the bottom of this post as to cause, I should have put ‘electromagnetism’ rather than just ‘magnetism’, since the two are always found together. OK?

  21. aWebsurfer says:

    Tall, sorry, no offense intended. I saw your article afterwards and am currently reading up on the thunderbolts blog. My gripe is that, especially with family friends in academics, that almost every alternative theory or observation is dismissed as silly or just plain stupid.

  22. tallbloke says:

    All new ‘alternative’ ideas attract their fair share of ‘whacky’ contributions, so it’s easy for academics to dismiss the whole on the basis of some of the parts. The danger is that they throw the baby out with the bathwater. Time will sort out the good from the bad. I try to encourage open but focussed debate here.

    The standing joke in the forum I frequent on motorcycle mechanics is that the standard response to any query about “How to fix my broken …” is “Use an angle grinder!”

    There is a danger that in trying to discover mechanisms for potentially connected solar system phenomena, the blog can get inundated with similar statements about, “the Electric Universe” being the answer. When asking for the specifics, it can get a bit fuzzy. I’m hoping that by focussing on the specifics of solar system dynamics, we might generate some well joined up ideas which might inform the wider ‘electric universe’ picture.

  23. [...] first post on this blog also looked at a curve I derived from ephemeris data relating to the motion of the sun [...]

  24. [...] are a multitude of other astrophysical relationships causing cycles related to climate not considered by the [...]

  25. [...] on Tallblokes post in regard to my views on how the relationship that seems to exist between LOD, solar equatorial [...]

  26. [...] Figure 1: Apparent correlations of factors with temperature, but not necessarily cause. (Source) [...]

  27. Roger Andrews says:

    Re: Geothermal Energy: Another Forgotten or Ignored Climate Factor

    It’s difficult to see how geothermal could make a measurable contribution to climate because there’s hardly any of it. Average global geothermal heat flux is less than 0.1 w/m2, and even along the mid-ocean ridge “hot spots” it’s only about 0.3 w/m2.

    http://geophysics.ou.edu/geomechanics/notes/heatflow/global_heat_flow.htm is a good reference.

  28. Michele says:

    Hi rog

    How you generate data “The Green Curve” (the distance between the solar system’s centre of mass and the solar equatorial plane in the vertical ‘z’ axis) ?

    Have you use …

    http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi

    ?

    thank you

  29. tallbloke says:

    Hi Michele,
    yes I used the JPL online ephemeris. The data is smoothed over two Jupiter orbits to reduce the amplitude swings caused by Jupiter-Saturn interactions.

    You need to select the positions relative to the solar equatorial plane.

  30. [...] This work provides a complimentary elucidation of the area of investigation which is the subject of the first post on this blog . Share this:ShareFacebookDiggTwitterStumbleUponPrintRedditEmailLike this:LikeBe the first to like [...]

  31. [...] at the talkshop we have recognised from the get-go that with the demise of the pathetically myopic and wholly incorrect co2-driven-climate hypothesis, [...]