Why Climate Change Wasn’t Behind Paris’s Record-High Temperature

Posted: July 27, 2019 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Critique, Natural Variation, Temperature
Tags: ,

Fine summer weather [image credit: BBC]


Heatwaves happen. But if one dares to exceed a previously recorded temperature for the time of year, it must somehow be your fault. Natural variation isn’t even considered, because it would weaken the warmist narrative.

It’s summer, temperatures are hot - sometimes record hot - and as usual, climate alarmism reaches record highs as climate activists have a field day with fearmongering rather than with facts and data, writes Chris Martz @ Climate Change Dispatch.

Every week, various weather events end up getting caught in the spokes of the wheel of climate; it’s an endless cycle. Rinse, wash, repeat.

This time, it’s the [second] European heatwave this summer.

A Bit of Historical Perspective

While countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium have recorded their hottest temperatures on record this week, Paris’s record high of 108.7°F (42.6°C) on Thursday, July 25, made international headlines and consequently sparked climate insanity.

The graph below (Figure 1) shows the maximum temperature in Paris, France for each year since 1900. As indicated by the red trendline, there has been a noticeable increase in the annual maximum temperature in Paris over the long run, however, the trend is not alarming.

Paris’s previous hottest temperature record stood for nearly 72 years.

On July 28, 1947, the city reached 104.7°F (40.4°C).³ Paris’s high of 108.7°F (42.6°C) on Thursday broke the old record by 4°F (2.2°C), an incredible feat by any stretch of the imagination.

To break an all-time temperature record by 4°F in summer, let alone tie it, is extremely difficult to do, even with global warming.


Figure 1. Paris, France annual maximum temperature since 1900.

The 1947 heatwave was an incredible one in Europe and it’s forever stitched in the memories of elders.

In Paris, the heatwave lasted for 12 days (July 22 through August 2) with highs consistently at or above 90°F (32.2°C).³ Two days were at or above 100°F (37.8°C), and four were at or above 95°F (35°C).³

What really stuck out to me when comparing maximum temperatures this summer with 1947 is that maximum temperatures seem to trace those of 1947 (Figure 2). It’s quite interesting and odd.


Figure 2. Paris, France daily maximum temperature for the summer of 1947 and 2019.

Is Climate Change to Blame?

Like many scientists, I agree that climate change - both natural fluctuations or man-made forcings like land use and urbanization - should cause weather patterns and the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather or weather-related events to change.

It’s indeed possible that the warmer atmosphere today, as compared to the 1980s, may have made this heatwave slightly more intense. However, nobody knows for sure because heatwaves have always occurred; some are just worse than others. It’s summer.

While this heatwave is the latest poster child for the planet’s “ecological breakdown,” there is a natural explanation for this heatwave, as with all other weather events.

There has been a persistent weather pattern that’s causing this bake-fest. A large area of high pressure is stationed over Europe and an area of low pressure is situated off of the coast of Ireland.

The wind flow around these pressure centers is drawing in air from the south, which is blowing hot Saharan air into Europe (see Figure 3).

This natural process occurs with or without 415 parts per million (ppm) or 0.04% of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Full article here (includes all graphics, references etc.).

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    EUROPE COOLS 20C IN 24 HOURS SPARKING VIOLENT THUNDERSTORMS + CRAZY HAIL SUSPENDS TOUR DE FRANCE STAGE
    JULY 27, 2019

    GFS TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (C) JULY 27:

    https://electroverse.net/europe-cools-20c-in-24-hours-crazy-hail-suspends-tour-de-france-stage/
    – – –
    Note: temp anomaly – not temp.

  2. Eduardo Ferreyra says:

    John Daly published an article I wrote about the 2003 heat wave in Europe. “Heat Wave in Europe: The Mystery Unveiled, by Eduardo Ferreyra (Argentina) (21 Sept 03). The recent heat in Europe made headlines in the media and was used as evidence that “global warming” is a fact. Guess what: human activities had nothing to do with it. See an excellent explanation of how meteorology, not global warming, was responsible for the heat wave.” It happens that the present heat wave is an exact repetition of 2003 conditions. It seems that climate repeats itself, cyclically. A rule of thumb: “If something happened once, it will happen again, someday in the future”.

    http://www.john-daly.com/guests/jet.htm

  3. ivan says:

    I can’t help wondering where that Paris record temperature was measured and how much the UHI influenced it.

  4. RICHARDS says:

    It was anarrow strip of heat with impressive cold on both sides. Measured by badly sited thermometers.

  5. JB says:

    “Propaganda by itself succeeds mainly with the frustrated. Their throbbing fears, hopes and passions crowd at the portals of their senses and get between them and the outside world. They cannot see but what they have already imagined, and it is the music of their own souls they hear in the impassioned words of the propagandist. Indeed, it is easier for the frustrated to detect their own
    imaginings and hear the echo of their own musings in impassioned double-talk and sonorous refrains than in precise words joined together with faultless logic.”The True Believer pp105-6

    “Propaganda thus serves more to justify ourselves than to convince others; and the more reason we have to feel guilty, the more fervent our propaganda.” The True Believer p107

    Eric Hoffer, hobo philosopher

  6. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    @ChrisMartzWX has some great data based sane takes on the hysteria. Well worth a follow.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Chris Martz Twitter blurb says:
    ‘Aspiring meteorologist with a passion for weather. Writer for @wattsupwiththat
    and @ccdeditor’

    (Ccd = climatechangedispatch)

    Ccd says:
    ‘Soon-to-be meteorologist Chris Martz runs the website Awesome Weather Facts and regularly writes about the climate, our weather, and forecasting.’
    https://awesomeweatherfacts.blogspot.com/

  8. oldbrew says:

    Climate change protester is fined $61,000 after attaching herself to a barrel filled with concrete, shutting down a railway for hours

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292511/Climate-change-protester-fined-61-000-blocking-coal-trains-heading-Port-Brisbane.html
    – – –
    XR cranks take note.

  9. Phoenix44 says:

    Everybody’s wrong – the heat in France this year is 100% correlated with my trips to France.

    As with last time, it was entirely obvious this was a mass of hot air, not hotter than normal summer weather. Everywhere was hot, even in deep shade, which of course helps records. It was also very still and very dry. As I understand it, the jet stream is also very fast at the moment so the hot air was sucked northwards very quickly, with no time to cool.

  10. stewgreen says:

    Surely the differences in temperature in same month in one year compared to another year
    is driven NOT by the amount of atmospheric CO2
    but rather the difference in dominant wind direction.

    (of course the amount of cloud and moisture would be secondary factors)

    BTW I like the font on this blog; it’s very clear to read.

  11. tom0mason says:

    It’s only about keeping people sensitized about hot events and catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) aka Climate Change, Climate Emergency, Climate Weirding, Carbon Pollution, Climate Disruption, Climate Catastrophe, etc., etc.

  12. oldbrew says:

    This time, it’s the [second] European heatwave this summer.

    And like the first one, it was a warm air mass blown north from the Sahara/N.Africa due to the prevailing jet stream pattern on those few days. Then it blew away and we’re back to ‘normal’, whatever that may be.

    The joke used to be that for much of Britain summer was ‘two hot days and a thunderstorm’. Our luck’s been in this year – happened twice.

  13. oldbrew says:

    Was Germany’s ‘record’ a bit of a fraud?

  14. ivan says:

    oldbrew, that sounds very like the French record taken on a hot tile roof.

  15. hunterson7 says:

    By definition a heat wave is weather, not climate.
    Attributing a weather event to climate is as irrational as blaming a hurricane on a politician….
    But of course the climate hypesters do just that.

  16. oldbrew says:

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