Arctic rainfall predicted to increase faster than expected, say modellers

Posted: December 1, 2021 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, modelling, predictions, research, weather
Tags:

Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca]


More than a whiff of climate alarmism here. Modelling of the future is billed as research, and so-called climate policies are advocated.
– – –
The amount of rainfall in the Arctic may increase at a faster rate than previously thought, according to a modelling study published in Nature Communications.

The research suggests that total rainfall will supersede snowfall in the Arctic decades earlier than previously thought, and could have various climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts, says Nature Asia.

The Arctic is known to be warming faster than most other parts of the world, leading to substantial environmental changes in this region.

Research suggests that there will be more rainfall than snowfall in the Arctic at some stage of the 21st century, but it is not yet clear when this shift will occur.

Michelle McCrystall and colleagues used the latest projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess the changes in the Arctic water cycle by the year 2100.

The authors found that precipitation, such as rainfall and snowfall, is projected to increase in all seasons.

Rainfall is projected to become the dominant form of precipitation one to two decades earlier than previous models suggested, depending on the season and region, linked to increased warming and a faster decline of sea ice.

For example, previous models projected the central Arctic to transition to a rainfall-dominated region in 2090, but it is now predicted to transition in 2060/2070.

The authors suggest that a transition to a rainfall-dominated Arctic could occur at lower temperature thresholds than previous models projected, even at 1.5°C warming in some regions, such as Greenland.

The authors argue that more stringent climate mitigation policies are required, as a rainfall-dominant Arctic would have impacts on ice sheet melting, rivers and wild animal populations, and have important social-ecological, cultural and economic implications.

Source: Nature Asia.

Comments
  1. […] Arctic rainfall predicted to increase faster than expected, say modellers […]

  2. Gamecock says:

    ‘The authors argue that more stringent climate mitigation policies are required, as a rainfall-dominant Arctic would have impacts on ice sheet melting, rivers and wild animal populations’

    Life could happen.

    Frozen wasteland good; life bad.

    ‘and have important social-ecological, cultural and economic implications.’

    The theory being that the few people who live in the Arctic like it really, really cold, and don’t want it to warm up any (as if we can affect it). The implications are . . . all good.

    CMIP6 is an affront to science. The average of junk is junk. CMIP6 says that the average of junk is data, useful for directing changes in Man’s behavior. So that it doesn’t rain in the Arctic in 2070.

  3. Phoenix44 says:

    “By 2100…”

    Why do people produce stuff that is utterly meaningless like this?

  4. Gamecock says:

    https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/life-and-public/2021/11/ice-locked-arctic-towns-might-not-get-needed-supplies

    This is a good thing, and we must do everything possible to make sure it continues.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Barents Observer, 24th Nov.:

    The complicated ice conditions on the Russian Arctic shipping route have taken shippers by surprise. The waters along the eastern parts of the sea route were ice-covered already in late October, which is several weeks earlier than normal. By early November it was almost impossible to sail through the area without assistance from a powerful icebreaker.
    – – –
    Welcome to the ‘rapidly warming’ Arctic 2021.

  6. oldbrew says:

    The snow-to-rainfall idea is catching on…

    Study projects more snowless mountains in climate-changed future
    December 1, 2021

    Warmer temperatures due to global climate change have led to earlier snowmelt and more snow falling as rain on mountain peaks in the Western United States.

    Researchers analyzed more than a dozen studies that forecast the future of snow in the Rockies, Sierra Nevada, and other mountain ranges. They found, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, winters with little or no snow could be the norm for California by the late 2040s, and for the rest of the Western United States by the 2070s.

    https://www.knau.org/knau-and-arizona-news/2021-12-01/study-projects-more-snowless-mountains-in-climate-changed-future

    They found, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked

    No, they didn’t ‘find’ that, because it’s not there to be found. They claimed it to be so.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Daily Mail runs a story on this as though the study is all real…

    Arctic by 2060: Global warming will change the main form of precipitation in the area up to two DECADES earlier than previously thought, study warns
    1 December 2021

    University of Manitoba-led experts analysed the latest climate projections
    They found all forms of Arctic precipitation to be on the rise across the seasons
    In places, rain could become dominant even at only 2.7°F (1.5°C) of warming
    The team has called for more stringent policies to mitigate climate change

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10262155/Climate-change-Rainfall-replace-snowfall-Arctic-2060-study-warns.html

  8. Gamecock says:

    “Researchers analyzed more than a dozen studies that forecast the future of snow in the Rockies, Sierra Nevada, and other mountain ranges.”

    See what they did there? They imply their correctness by citing “more than a dozen studies.” When, of course, if ONE were correct, that’s all they would need.

    [In response to the book “Hundred Authors Against Einstein”]
    “Why 100? If I were wrong, one would have been enough.” – Einstein

  9. jb says:

    Far too much focus on “What if?” scenarios than “What is?” in the scientific world. Its become the world’s secular religion for its prognostication obsession.

    The trouble is no one is paying attention to the 100 who HAVE pointed out the errors in Einstein’s ideas, and by extension all these other divining theoretical masturbaters, much less ONE.

  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    Imagine more rain for 4000 years for natural reasons.
    Consider not just latent heat theory but non-latent observation.
    Observation:
    When rain arrives in winter temperatures go up 10 to 40˚C (heat & moisture package deal).
    It makes a discrete difference:
    Freezing levels go way above mountaintops meaning precipitation falls as rain not snow.
    Imagine LIA was the sharp low point of a 6000 year cycle and CO2 mindsets are hitching a ride on a natural 6000 year cycle. Just imagine it. You don’t have to believe it to understand it how it might affect psychology in a soft power campaign that prevents war. Let us find peace, tranquility, and security …creatively if necessary. Preventing WWIII is a higher priority. (Ask PC if he disagrees to get this going.)

  11. Graeme No.3 says:

    They used a McCrystall ball.

    Must be true. Like previous predictions about the polar bears starving, the North Pole becoming ice free and “believers” being able to paddle their kayak there. Nor that your ship with its team aiming to prove Climate Change wouldn’t get stuck in ice near Svalbard (in summer).

  12. ivan says:

    Why not call the results of these climate models what they really are – GARBAGE. They might be a bit better if they based them on real world observations and didn’t try and project into the future.

  13. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Rainfall? That freezes on hitting the ground?

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