The annual atmospheric CO2 variation: A new theory – Net Zero Watch

Posted: August 20, 2022 by oldbrew in atmosphere, Carbon cycle, Natural Variation, research, sea ice, Temperature
Tags: ,

Arctic sea ice [image credit: Geoscience Daily]

The authors propose that sea-ice formation is the key factor and not biology. In their paper, we read: ‘Results: Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months.’ However, drawing conclusions from correlations can go wrong. The authors conclude: ‘If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.’
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Could we be wrong about the annual cycle of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? – asks Net Zero Watch.

That’s the suggestion by a pair of distinguished Oxford zoologists Clive Hambler and Peter Henderson who have just published a paper that could change our understanding about one of the key observations of this greenhouse gas.

They propose that sea-ice formation is the key factor and not biology.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen since records were kept regularly, about 1960. Superimposed on the trend is a seasonal cycle which, when measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, is very regular usually peaking in May. Some scientists have called this cycle “the Earth breathing,” as they attribute it to biological activity on the large land masses of the Northern Hemisphere.

There is also a methane cycle though it is more complex and less regular, with peaks around November.

The Oxford researchers, however, point out that the “earth-breathing” explanation for the annual carbon dioxide cycle is not as secure as many think.

The global carbon dioxide net emission rate has a correlation of only 0.77 (significant at the 99.99% level) with lower tropospheric temperatures for the tropical land region. Also, despite considerable effort to find the location, there is great uncertainty about where​​ the “earth breathing” is taking place.

In addition, terrestrial biological productivity in the Northern Hemisphere is typically measured by a factor called NDVI (sometimes called “greenness”) but the researchers point out that this is less strongly correlated with carbon dioxide rates than are sea ice rates.

“To our knowledge no region has been shown to have extremely high temporal synchrony and hence statistical correlation with the global carbon dioxide rate.”

Full article here.
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Paper: Clive Hambler, Peter Alan Henderson, Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics, International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Volume 6, Issue 1, June 2022 , pp. 13-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13

  1. […] The annual atmospheric CO2 variation: A new theory – Net Zero Watch […]

  2. tallbloke says:

  3. oldbrew says:

    CO2 and Temperature
    Ken Stewart, April 2011

    Carbon dioxide concentration, while increasing year to year, responds to temperature change after a lag of some months – not the reverse.

    See also:

    From the abstract of the paper NZW featured:
    We consider a variable that lags another can not be causal of the leading variable.

  4. The southern hemisphere has more stabilizing ocean and less land. The northern hemisphere has more green biology and less stabilizing ocean. The whole earth has more stabilizing ocean and less green biology. The obsessive total focus on CO2 as a control factor for temperature and sea level is seriously preventing actual honest study into whatever natural factors does matter.

    When CO2 went from 300 to 400 parts per million, it added only one molecule of CO2 to ten thousand molecules of atmosphere, it is ridiculous to spend trillions to try to control emissions of something that trivial.

    Alarmists win every argument about CO2 just on the precautionary principles, that is why they spend trillions to keep everyone arguing in their ballpark where they hire and pay the umpires.

    Study history and data back beyond the modern natural warming from the little ice age, it has always warmed from colder periods and this is still the coldest warm period of the most recent ten thousand years, according to Greenland Ice Core Records and human history of the recent few thousand years. Greenland is not as warm as when the Vikings lived there in the last warmer period.

    While the northern hemisphere cooled over ten thousand years, according to Greenland Ice Core records, the southern hemisphere cycled in the same temperature bounds during the same ten thousand year time period, according to Antarctica Ice Core Records.

    With the two extreme polar regions responding a little differently, the CO2 was much the same in its changes in both hemispheres in the same time period.

    The southern hemisphere temperature is well inside the bounds of the recent ten thousand years while the northern temperature is really closer to the lower bounds and colder than most of the recent ten thousand years.

    This is from actual data, study and understand and teach this.

  5. P.A.Semi says:

    As I’ve written here recently in comments
    that there have been two major storms this year showing word “Fascist” over Europe,
    now the month passed, there has been another heat-wave around 13th – 18th of a month in Central Europe, and then a huge storm in Mediterranean, which again has been playing the word Fascist, just this time the letter A was replaced by a swastika:

    (there is full-resolution image beside without the “_small4” suffix)

    Here in the liar main-stream TV broadcast, where one cannot trust even the meteorology report, the meteorologist has been lying yesterday, that “climate change is bringing more and more frequent droughts”…
    Well, it’s either La Nina bringing the droughts, and either it’s God’s punishment now for fascist Euro-American war against Russia on Ukraine… Or both…


  6. tallbloke says:

    P.A. Semi: Well, it’s either La Nina bringing the droughts, and either it’s God’s punishment now for fascist Euro-American war against Russia on Ukraine… Or both…

    In my opinion, the sooner Europe teaches NATO allies the lessons of history and accepts the reality of Novorussia and Malorussia in Eastern and southern Ukraine the better. Just like the tides of war ebb and flow, the rains follow the droughts.

    Passau flood levels over the centuries.

  7. stpaulchuck says:

    when THIS fails, what’s next, the entrails of goats?

  8. oldbrew says:

    Talking of theories…

    New Study: A Post-2000 Increase In Absorbed Solar Energy ‘By Far The Largest Contribution’ To Warming
    By Kenneth Richard on 22. August 2022

    Scientists have once again affirmed the 2000-2020 total greenhouse effect (longwave) forcing has been declining in recent decades just as absorbed solar radiation has been increasing due to cloud albedo modulation. The latter explains the net positive Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) and consequent global warming during this period.

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