Experts ‘explain slowing Atlantic ocean currents’ – or do they?

Posted: November 17, 2022 by oldbrew in data, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, opinion, research, Temperature
Tags: ,

A portion of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) [image credit: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution @ Wikipedia]


The article below links to another one which appears to contradict it. In ‘The threshold between natural Atlantic current system fluctuations and a climate change-driven evolution’ we’re told ‘natural variations are still dominant’ in the AMOC or “Gulf Stream System.” Then the key part:
‘According to the researchers, part of the North Atlantic is cooling—a striking contrast to the majority of ocean regions. All evaluations indicate that since the beginning of the 20th century, natural fluctuations have been the primary reason for this cooling. Nonetheless, the studies indicate that the AMOC has started to slow down in recent decades.’ If the slowdown occurred under cooling, why should future warming be likely to cause more of it?

– – –
For decades, oceanographers have been measuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of ocean currents that greatly influence Earth’s climate, says Phys.org.

In recent years, the data show it is weakening. But what does this mean?

“If this system of currents significantly slows down, this could change weather patterns in the tropics, with a detrimental effect on crop yields,” said Spencer Jones, a visiting assistant professor in the Department of Oceanography at Texas A&M University.

The AMOC is technically still within its natural normal range for speed, experts say, but as global warming continues, the AMOC could possibly slow dangerously.

Some scientists say that we are already seeing the effects of this slowing in recent abnormal weather patterns. One thing most scientists agree on, though, is the importance of the AMOC to the climate.

“Changes to the AMOC strength are likely to change the weather patterns in regions like Central America and Indonesia,” Jones said. “Even though the atmosphere compensates for some of the northward heat transport by the AMOC, the Northern Hemisphere still ends up being a bit warmer than the Southern Hemisphere. Most scientists agree that temperatures in northern Europe (particularly Norway) are warmer because of the additional heat transport of the AMOC.”

Because the AMOC is within its natural range as far as the speed of its currents, some might think there is nothing to worry about. Jones, however, disagrees.

“Whether or not it is true that the AMOC has been slowing down for a long time, most scientists expect that the AMOC will slow down quite a lot over the next few decades,” Jones explained.

“That’s because as the climate warms, the Greenland ice sheet will melt, and a lot of freshwater will enter the Labrador, Greenland and Irminger seas. Fresh water is lighter than salty water, so the surface water in these areas will get lighter, and less water will sink into the deep ocean.”

Full article here.

Comments
  1. Sounds like a natural part of the AMO.

  2. […] Experts ‚explain slowing Atlantic ocean currents‘ – or do they? — Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

  3. oldbrew says:

    According to Michael Mann…

    After 20 Years, Researcher Now Says the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Doesn’t Really Exist
    March 08, 2021

    Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished scholar at the National Center of Atmospheric Research, told CBS News he thinks computer models may not be able to accurately simulate the AMO and Mann’s conclusions may be premature.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory said the role of external factors versus natural variability in the AMO is “a very active area of research.”

    https://weather.com/news/news/2021-03-08-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-does-not-exist-michael-mann-says

  4. Phoenix44 says:

    So when is all this going to happen then? It’s been promised for decades but it never seems to actually occur.

  5. JB says:

    “Most scientists agree ”
    Don’t care if they do.
    Only hypo’s proven true
    Science isn’t stew
    Nor the ocean blue

  6. They wrote:
    The AMOC is technically still within its natural normal range for speed, experts say, but as global warming continues, the AMOC could possibly slow dangerously.

    They have measured these flows for “decades”, NOT CENTURY’S!
    They started measuring as we were still coming out of the Little Ice Age.
    They have no measurements that include the Roman Warm Time, the Cold time after, no measurements that include the Medieval Warm period, the Little Ice Age or the beginning of coming out of the Little Ice Age into this Modern Warm Time.

    They have no correct standard for what is normal as alternating warm and cold periods progress. They have a few decades of a thousand year cycle. They have established a Static Climate Theory to describe Dynamic Climate Cycles and believe the new Static Climate has replaced the Dynamic changes that have always happened.

    New dynamic discoveries of the natural changes trashes their Static Peer Reviewed Consensus Theory, every day, and they cry “Out of Balance”, when it is just outside of their extremely limited static theory, progressing as it did with past natural cycling.

  7. catweazle666 says:

    And here’s me thinking “the science is settled”…
    Or is it “The Science” that is settled, apparently not the same thing at all?

  8. JB wrote: “Most scientists agree ” then made it clear that is nothing, really.

    Those “scientists” are not any kind of scientist, real scientists question consensus, real scientists discuss and debate with people who agree and with people who disagree, and real scientists doubt they have all the real truth and keep searching.

    Those “people” are paid to enforce a political alarmist consensus, they are rewarded for really scary stuff and fired if they come close to true natural climate understanding.

  9. Jaime Jessop says:

    Climate alarmists are fixated on AMOC. It’s become an unhealthy obsession with them. Even when presented with data, after data, after data, which demonstrates that natural variability in AMOC is the overwhelming cause of recently observed changes, they still can’t get it out of their system and their response is: “But, muh climate models, muh melting ice, muh freshwater, muh Day After Tomorrow!’

  10. catweazle666 says:

    Sorry JJ, the “Climate Scientists” have cancelled “natural variability”!

  11. oldbrew says:

    Two main temperature periodicities related to planetary and solar activity oscillations
    Antero Ollila, Mauri Timonen
    First published: 31 October 2022

    Abstract
    The mechanism and even the existence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have remained under debate among climate researchers, and the same applies to general temperature oscillations of a 60–90-year period. The objective of this study is to show that these temperature oscillations are real and not artifacts and that these oscillations have different external cosmic origins.

    https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.7912
    (full abstract)
    – –
    Maybe not offering excuses for Hollywood disaster scenarios as preferred by climate alarmists, but hey ho. An ‘oscillation’ (the O in AMO) is by definition not a one-way process, which shouldn’t need pointing out, but…

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