NOAA’s ‘record-breaking’ hurricane season forecast – heard it before?

The ‘average’ 2022 season was supposed to be a big one but not much happened until near the end of it. Any hurricane season prediction could turn out to be better than guesswork of course, but the current skill level of forecasters is debatable, perhaps coloured by alarmist expectations in some cases. Last week a Forbes article had the title: Climate Change, Though Quite Real, Isn’t Spawning More Hurricanes. (‘Quite real’ is an amusingly weak endorsement, one of the I-suppose-I-should-say-that variety as a nod to alarmist theory). Forbes: ‘are we seeing an ominous upward historical trend in the hazard posed by major Atlantic hurricanes? No.’
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More than two dozen hurricanes could be on their way this year, thanks to climate change [Talkshop comment – of course!] and La Niña, experts have forecast.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have made their highest-ever May forecast for an Atlantic hurricane season: 17 to 25 named storms, says LiveScience.

According to the forecast, 13 of these storms will be hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher, and four to seven will be major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph (179 km/h) or higher.

“This season is looking to be extraordinary in a number of ways,” NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said at a news conference on Thursday (May 23).

Spinrad noted that 2024 was now on track to be “the seventh consecutive above-normal season” [Talkshop comment – preceded by three relatively quiet years].

An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven of which are hurricanes and three of which are major hurricanes, according to NOAA. The most active season on record, 2020, had 30 named storms.
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Since March 2023, average sea surface temperatures around the world have hit record-shattering highs — indicating that a busy storm season is on the cards.
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During El Niño, winds in the Atlantic are typically stronger and more stable than usual, acting as a brake on hurricane formation. But if the climate cycle follows predictions and El Niño is replaced by La Niña, it could make for a particularly stormy summer. That’s because La Niña weakens trade winds and in turns lessens vertical wind shear, which is what breaks up incipient storms.

Full article here.
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Image credit: sanibelrealestateguide.com
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More from Forbes, re. landfalling hurricanes:
The bottom line is there is no compelling evidence that major landfalling Atlantic hurricanes are increasing in frequency or severity (as currently measured based on wind speed) due to climate change. There is some recent evidence that storms may be intensifying (i.e., increasing in severity) faster and traveling slower, which are subjects of active research.

Hurricanes are a persistent risk, lesser or greater depending on your location. There is no evidence to date that shows the world in a changing climate is producing, or will produce, a notable increase in the occurrence of landfalling storms in the Atlantic.
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BBC: Atlantic to get ‘extraordinary’ hurricane season – 23 May 2024